Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1986
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99th Congress, 2d Session
Economic Indicators
FEBRUARY
1986
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1986
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman
JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
BOBBI FIEDLER (California)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
PETE WILSON (California)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director
ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 4.5 percent (annual rate) or $44.6
billion in the fourth quarter of 1985. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.2 percent and the implicit
price deflator rose 3.3 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400
4,000
4,000
3,600
3,600
3,200
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1977
1985
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Gross
national
product
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Govern ment purch ases of
gOO( s and senices
Exports imd imports of goods
£ nd services
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
and
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
2,249.7
2,508.2
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,401.6
3,774.7
3,989.1
1,403.5
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.1
416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
668.6
4.1
18.8
32.1
33.9
26.3
-5.3
59.2
-76.9
227.5
291.2
351.0
382.8
361.9
354.1
384.6
370.2
223.4
272.5
318.9
348.9
335.6
359.4
443.8
447.0
425.2
467.8
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.7
736.8
815.3
161.8
178.0
208.1
242.2
272.7
284.8
312.9
355.0
108.9
121.9
142.7
167.5
193.8
215.7
237.0
262.0
52.9
56.1
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.2
76.0
93.0
263.4
289.9
322.2
345.9
369.0
390.9
423.9
460.3
2,221.0
2,495.2
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,408.0
3,707.6
3,981.9
1982: IJJ
IV
3,179.4
3,212.5
2,065.6
2,117.0
452.2
409.6
14.5
14.1
359.9
335.9
345.4
321.9
647.1
671.8
275.3
293.2
197.3
205.4
78.0
87.7
371.8
378.7
3,188.4
3,272.4
1983: I
3,268.7
3,365.1
3,437.5
3,535.0
2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6
28.4
-2.6
-19.7
27.4
344.6
345.0
358.0
368.8
316.2
347.5
377.6
396.2
669.3
673.8
681.1
678.6
287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2
209.4
214.5
215.8
222.9
77.8
72.5
70.2
56.2
382.2
386.9
395.1
399.4
3,311.4
3,370.6
3,440.3
3,509.5
3,676.5
3,757.5
3,812.2
3,852.5
2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1
658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2
-37.4
-65.3
-61.9
— 72.2
375.4
382.3
391.4
389.5
412.8
447.6
453.3
461.7
696.5
735.1
747.3
768.4
285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
228.3
235.8
236.2
247.5
57.3
79.0
82.2
85.4
410.9
420.3
428.8
435.5
3,584.4
3,688.7
3,743.9
3,813.5
3,917.5
3,960.6
4,016.9
4,061.5
2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.0
657.6
672.8
666.1
678.0
-42.3
-70.3
-87.8
106.9
379.6
369.2
363.2
368.7
421.9
439.5
451.0
475.7
777.2
794.8
832.5
856.5
334.4
337.8
364.8
382.9
249.5
256.0
269.9
272.5
84.9
81.7
95.0
110.4
442.8
457.1
467.7
473.6
3,899.0
3,945.0
4,016.7
4,066.9
n
m
IV
1984:
I
n
Ill
IV
1985: I
n
Ill
IV
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Gross
national
product
Gross privat
dome stic investrnent
Exj>orts of go ods
a nd service
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Nomesidential
fixed
Residential
fixed
Change
in
business
invento-
Govern ment purch ases of
good s and sen ices
Final
sales
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
National
defense
Non-
State
and
local
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r.
3,115.2
3,192.4
3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,277.7
3,492.0
3,571.0
1,961.0
2,004.4
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,145.9
2,239.9
2,313.0
362.1
389.4
379.2
395.2
366.7
360.1
430.3
471.7
178.0
170.8
137.0
126.5
105.1
148.7
168.3
171.3
36.8
15.0
-6.9
23.9
24.5
-5.5
62.7
5.6
26.8
3.6
57.0
49.4
26.3
-19.4
-85.0
-106.7
312.6
356.8
388.9
392.7
361.9
349.4
370.9
360.1
339.4
353.2
332.0
343.4
335.6
368.8
455.9
466.8
604.1
609.1
620.5
629.7
641.7
647.8
675.9
716.1
233.7
236.2
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.5
292.5
322.2
160.7
164.3
171.2
180.3
193.8
207.3
220.3
235.9
73.0
71.9
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.3
72.3
86.3
370.4
373.0
373.6
370.1
369.0
372.2
383.3
393.9
3,078.4
3,177.4
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,283.1
3,429.3
3,565.4
1982: m
IV
3,154.5
3,159.3
2,051.8
2,078.7
358.0
352.3
100.1
115.8
-9.4
-59.3
11.7
11.7
359.5
336.0
347.8
324.3
642.5
660.1
273.8
289.5
197.0
201.4
76.9
88.2
368.6
370.6
3,164.0
3,218.6
1983: I
3,190.6
3,259.3
3,303.4
3,357.2
2,096.4
2,137.2
2,161.8
2,188.1
337.5
346.9
363.4
392.9
127.2
145.8
161.6
160.4
-42.2
-3.7
1.4
22.6
22.5
-15.0
-36.2
-48.9
342.8
342.4
353.1
359.1
320.3
357.4
389.3
408.0
649.1
648.2
651.5
642.2
279.2
277.6
277.4
267.9
203.8
206.9
206.5
211.8
75.4
70.6
70.9
56.1
369.9
370.6
374.1
374.3
3,232.8
3,263.0
3,302.1
3,334.6
3,449.4
3,492.6
3,510.4
3,515.6
2,210.9
2,243.0
2,243.4
2,262.0
398.8
426.8
437.6
457.8
166.6
170.0
170.8
166.0
83.6
66.0
64.9
36.1
-60.6
-90.4
-88.7
-100.2
362.7
366.6
376.9
377.3
423.3
457.0
465.6
477.5
650.1
677.1
682.4
693.9
271.4
294.8
296.7
307.3
214.1
219.6
219.6
227.9
57.3
75.2
77.1
79.5
378.6
382.4
385.7
386.6
3,365.7
3,426.6
3,445.5
3,479.5
3,547.8
3,557.4
3,584.1
3,594.8
2,288.6
2,303.5
2,329.6
2,330.3
457.2
470.9
473.7
485.1
166.7
169.6
173.1
175.8
15.8
15.1
-1.8
-6.7
-71.8
-101.1
-119.8
- 134.0
368.7
358.2
353.5
359.9
440.5
459.3
473.3
493.9
691.4
699.4
729.2
744.3
304.3
305.9
331.1
347.4
226.7
231.5
243.3
241.9
77.6
74.3
87.9
105.4
387.1
393.6
398.1
396.9
3,532.0
3,542.3
3,585.8
3,601.5
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV '.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross i rivate
domestic iiivestment
Personal eonsumption
expen ditures
Period
national
product
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Exports an . imports of
goods an<1 services
Gove •nment pure lases of goc ds and
sen ices
Federal
Nonresidential
Residential fixed
Exports
Imports
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and local
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '
72.2
78.6
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.8
108.1
111.7
71.6
78.2
86.6
94.6
100.0
103.9
108.2
111.6
76.9
82.1
89.2
95.7
100,0
102.1
103,9
104.6
71.9
80.0
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.0
105.4
107.7
69.8
75.6
83.9
92.6
100.0
105.7
111.5
116.7
71.5
77.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.9
99.4
100.9
72.6
81.4
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.4
108.4
72.8
81.6
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.4
103.7
102.8
65.8
77.1
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.5
97.4
95.8
69.2
75.4
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.4
107.0
110.2
67.8
74.2
83.4
92.9
100.0
104.0
107.6
111.1
72.4
78.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.3
105.1
107.7
71.1
77.7
86.2
93.4
100.0
105.0
110.6
116.8
1982: HI
IV
100.8
101.7
100.7
101.8
100.4
100.7
100.5
101.0
100.9
102.7
100.8
100.7
100.4
99.1
100.1
100.0
99.3
99.3
100.5
101.3
100.2
102.0
101.5
99.5
100.9
102.2
1983: I
102.4
103.2
104.1
105.3
102.4
103.4
104.3
105.4
101.3
101.6
102.4
103.1
100.7
101.9
102.4
103.1
103.9
105.0
106.2
107.8
100.1
98.9
98.3
98.4
102.0
100.3
103.2
103.1
100.5
100.8
101.4
102.7
98.7
97.2
97.0
97.1
102.8
103.4
103.1
104.2
102.7
103.7
104.5
105.3
103.1
102.6
99.0
100.1
103.3
104.4
105.6
106.7
1984: I
106.6
107.6
108.6
109.6
106.7
107.6
108.7
109.6
103.4
103.9
104.1
104.2
104.5
104.8
105.5
106.6
109.2
110.8
112.5
113.5
98.8
99.2
99.6
100.1
103.8
106.5
107.6
107.9
103.5
104.3
103.8
103.2
97.5
98.0
97.3
96.7
105.2
106.8
107.3
108.3
106.6
107.4
107.6
108.6
99.9
105.0
106.7
107.5
108.5
109.9
111.2
112.7
1985: I
110.4
111.3
112.1
113.0
110.3
111.3
111.9
113.0
104.9
104.8
104.6
104.3
106.7
107.5
107.6
109.1
114.7
116.1
117.4
118.7
100.5
100.7
101.0
101.2
107.7
107.9
108.2
109.5
102.9
103.1
102.7
102.5
95.8
95.7
95.3
96.3
109.9
110.4
110.2
110.2
110.1
110.6
110.9
112.6
109.4
110.0
108.1
104.7
114.4
116.1
117.5
119.3
n
ra
IV
n
m
rv
n
m
IV '
i
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
r
CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Ore ss national prc duct
Period
1978
13.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
1982: HI
IV
1983: I
11.5
8.9
11.7
3.7
7.4
11.0
r
5.7
2.5
4.2
7.2
12.3
8.9
11.8
17.0
9.1
6.0
4.3
6.9
4.5
5.8
4.5
n
m
1984:
IY
I
1985:
IV
I
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
n
ni
n
Ill
IV.
5.3
2.5
2
1.9
2.5
3.5
6.5
2.3
-3.2
.6
4.0
8.9
5.5
6.7
11.4
5.1
2.1
.6
3.7
1.1
3.0
1.2
Implicit
price
deflator
Persona! consumption e> penditures
Chain price
index
7.3
8.9
9.0
9.7
6.4
3.8
4.1
3.3
5.8
3.6
2.8
3.2
3.5
4.7
5.0
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.0
3.3
2.9
3.3
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
wsights)
6.9
8.0
9.1
9.5
6.4
r
3.9
4.2
3.5
5.7
3.8
3.2
2.8
4.7
2.9
4.8
6.1
3.8
3.9
3.5
3.6
2.5
3.6
C
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
6.2
8.5
9.3
9.3
6.2
4.0
11.6
4.1
2.2
11.6
10.6
10.5
7.1
8.7
8.7
6.6
8.5
10.3
5.6
12.5
8.4
9.4
9.4
9.8
4.1
6.9
7.4
6.2
6.8
4.4
4.3
3.6
5.5
4.0
3.2
3.8
4.0
4.3
5.1
4.3
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.6
2.7
3.9
Implicit
price
deflator
-.2
1.2
1.3
4.6
4.4
'3.3
2.1
5.3
3.4
8.0
4.7
5.0
4.2
5.9
.1
3.4
4.8
2.6
4.6
.1
Chain price
index
7.3
9.2
10.7
9.2
5.7
3.9
4.1
3.1
6.2
4.4
2.4
4.0
3.5
4.3
5.0
3.4
4.2
3.4
2.6
3.7
2.2
4.0
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
7.2
9.2
10.9
9.2
5.7
4.0
4.2
3.4
6.3
4.8
2.2
4.2
3.7
4.4
5.1
3.7
4.1
3.6
2.7
3.7
2.4
4.5
7.0
8.8
10.5
9.0
5.6
4.0
4.3
3.4
6.3
4.8
2.3
4.2
3.8
4.4
5.2
3.8
4.2
3.6
2.7
3.8
2.6
4.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Curren t-dollar cos t and profit per unit o output (do liars) '
Gross c omestic
produ ct of
nonfin ancial
corporate business
(billions o f dollars)
Period
Current
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '.
1982:
1983:
1984:
in
IV
I
n
m
IV
I
II
m
1985:
1
IV
I
n
ni
1982
Total
cost
and
profit 2
Indirect
business
taxes 3
Net
interest
Total
Profits
tax
liability
Profits
after
tax 4
1,789.8
1,840.4
1.807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.9
2,039.3
2,096.9
0.712
.770
.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.056
1.088
0.073
.082
.095
.109
.125
.124
.119
.121
0.064
.066
.077
.090
.094
.098
.099
.102
0.473
.523
.581
.632
.676
.679
.687
.710
0.020
.024
.031
.037
.043
.039
.042
.041
0.082
.076
.068
.078
.063
.086
.108
.115
0.037
.038
.037
.035
.026
.031
.035
.029
0.044
.038
.031
.044
.037
.055
.073
.085
17.358
17.221
17.096
17.194
17.318
' 17.940
r
18.323
18.299
1,789.0
1,779.4
1,820.0
1,884.9
1,946.5
2,012.2
2,088.0
2,147.0
2,172.5
2,205.2
2,237.0
2,265.8
2,301.6
1,777.8
1,760.2
1,793.1
1,842.5
1,891.2
1,940.8
2,005.0
2,043.0
2,048.2
2,061.0
2,077.3
2,087.2
2,106.9
1.006
1.011
1.015
1.023
1.029
1.037
1.041
1.051
1.061
1.070
1.077
1.086
1.092
.127
.131
.128
.125
.124
.121
.119
.118
.119
.120
.120
.121
.121
.094
.096
.096
.099
.099
.098
.098
.099
.100
.100
.100
.103
.102
.679
.685
.682
.678
.676
.680
.679
.682
.691
.697
.703
.709
.709
.041
.042
.040
.039
.039
.039
.039
.041
.043
.044
.043
.042
.040
.065
.057
.070
.082
.092
.099
.106
.111
.107
.109
.111
.111
.120
.026
.023
.023
.030
.035
.034
.038
.038
.032
.032
.029
.028
.030
.038
.034
.047
.053
.057
.065
.068
.073
.075
.077
.081
.083
.090
17.375
17.402
' 17.699
r
!7.899
' 18.046
r
18.113
* 18.321
' 18.416
' 18.308
r
18.260
' 18.266
r
18.255
' 18.382
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporate business in 1982 dol-
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
Compensation of
employees
Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)
1,274.1
1,417.4
1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,915.9
2,153.1
2,281.7
lars.
2
Corp( rate profits with
inventory valuation a nd capital
consult ption adjus tments
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
3
4
Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)
8.219
9.002
9.939
10.861
11.699
r
!2.179
' 12.593
12.989
11.804
11.928
12.069
' 12.138
r
!2.191
r
!2.315
* 12.448
' 12.552
' 12.645
' 12.733
' 12.839
r
12.950
r
13.040
r
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Compensation of
employ-
National
income
Proprietor s' income
with in pentory
valuation s nd capital
consuroption
adjust ments
Farm
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985r
1982: HI
IV
1983: I
2,047.3
2,203.5
2,443.5
2,518.4
2,718.3
3,039.3
3,212.0
2,528.4
2,548.2
2,603.6
2,678.9
2,747.4
2,843.5
2,967.7
3,021.1
3,064.2
3,104.4
3,155.3
3,192.2
3,228.0
n
ra
rv
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
w
1
1,491.4
1,638.2
1,807.4
1,907.0
2,025.9
2,221.3
2,372.4
1,918.4
1,931.1
1,962.4
2,001.5
2,041.8
2,097.6
2,160.9
2,204.8
2,241.2
2,278.5
2,320.4
2,356.9
2,385.2
2,427.2
Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
160.1
160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
201.6
220.9
151.7
159.8
167.2
175.5
182.3
187.1
195.9
199.7
204.5
206.3
212.9
218.1
225.3
227.5
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
Profits wi ;h inventory valuation
adjustmei it and withoiit capital
consu nption adjus ment
tion
adjustment
Nonfarm
31.7
20.5
30.7
24.6
14.3
32.1
21.3
22.9
28.5
18.7
11.8
6.6
20.0
44.4
29.4
27.8
26.6
26.5
22.8
12.2
23.7
Corpora e profits wil a inventory valuation ane capital
consurnption adjustments
5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
14.0
12.0
15.8
13.3
14.8
11.9
11.0
11.6
11.9
10.0
9.7
11.0
13.8
14.5
16.7
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
Profits
before tax
200.1
177.2
188.0
150.0
213.8
273.3
296.2
154.3
146.1
173.4
205.9
228.4
247.6
268.0
277.8
271.2
276.2
281.7
288.1
309.1
214.1
194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
224.4
161.6
150.7
163.7
190.5
207.3
218.7
234.4
241.8
226.5
226.3
220.6
220.9
233.2
257.2
237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
225.0
171.6
164.1
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
220.0
218.7
228.6
Capital
consumpiion
-43.2
-43.1
24.2
-10.4
-10.0
-5.4
.6
-10.0
-13.4
3.4
-9.3
-18.1
8.9
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
1.6
.7
2.2
4.7
10.0
-14.0
-16.8
14.4
-9.2
18.8
41.0
71.8
-7.3
-4.5
9.7
15.5
21.0
28.9
33.5
36.0
44.8
49.8
61.1
67.2
75.9
83.0
Net
interest
158.3
200.9
248.1
272.3
273.6
300.2
287.2
269.1
266.9
268.5
269.4
276.4
280.3
286.9
297.6
309.5
307.0
302.9
292.4
281.8
271.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Non durable g )ods
Durabl > goods
Ti
Period
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '.
1982: HI
IV
1983: I
n
m
rv
1984: I
n
m
rv
1985: I
n
m
rv.
.
consumption
expendi-
Total
durable
goods
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.1
2,065.6
2,117.0
2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1
2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
219.0
219.3
239.9
252.7
289.6
331.1
361.1
252.8
263.8
268.5
285.3
295.3
309.4
321.6
330.2
331.1
341.5
351.5
356.5
376.0
360.3
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
96.9
90.3
100.5
108.9
130.6
153.8
167.9
108.3
115.7
115.9
129.2
134.0
143.1
150.1
154.1
153.6
157.4
163.1
165.4
183.0
160.2
Furniture
and
household
equipment
82.1
86.2
92.7
95.7
107.4
119.4
129.0
96.4
99.1
102.1
105.4
109.0
113.0
116.1
118.8
119.3
123.5
125.7
127.6
128.6
134.3
Other
40.0
42.8
46.6
48.1
51.7
57.9
64.1
48.1
49.0
50.4
50.7
52.2
53.3
55.4
57.3
58.2
60.6
62.7
63.4
64.4
65.9
Total
nondurable
*
613.2
681.4
740.6
771.0
817.0
872.4
912.3
776.7
786.6
792.4
811.7
826.5
837.2
856.6
873.2
876.6
883.1
895.7
910.2
914.5
928.6
Food
317.3
349.1
376.5
398.8
422.0
451.7
473.9
402.7
407.0
413.1
419.0
426.0
430.0
440.0
449.9
457.1
459.6
465.5
472.1
475.9
482.2
Clothing and
shoes
Gasoline
and oil
102.2
109.0
119.9
124.4
135.2
147.4
156.1
125.0
126.5
129.4
135.0
135.5
140.9
144.4
149.1
146.4
149.7
152.8
156.3
155.7
159.9
66.1
83.7
92.7
89.1
90.1
90.7
91.8
88.6
89.8
86.5
89.4
92.5
92.1
92.0
91.9
89.1
89.8
89.3
92.9
92.2
93.0
Serv-
Retail sales of
new passenger
cars (mi lions of
un ts)
Other
Domestics
127.6
139.5
151.6
158.7
169.6
182.6
190.3
160.4
163.4
163.3
168.3
172.6
174.1
180.2
182.3
184.0
184.1
188.2
188.9
190.7
193.5
734.6
831.9
934.7
1,027.0
1,122.7
1,219.6
1,308.8
1,036.1
1,066.5
1,085.2
1,113.0
,133.1
,159.6
,180.4
,211.1
,231.3
1,255 A
1,277.8
1,296.6
1,315.6
1,345.1
8.2
6.6
6.2
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
5.6
6.0
6.0
6.9
6.9
7.4
8.1
8.2
7.9
7.6
8.5
8.2
9.4
7.0
Imports
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income fell $2.8 billion (annual rate) in January following a rise of $38.9 billion in December. The
changes were affected by special factors involving (in December and January) military pay, cost-of-living
adjustments, tax rates and the taxable wage base for social security, and subsidy payments for farmers and (in
November) severe flooding. Without these special factors, personal income rose $6.8 billion in January and $22.3
billion in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,200
1,600
800
400
400
200
200
1986
1978
' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
r
Total
personal
income
Proprietors ' income 3
Wage and
Farm
1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.4
1,119.3
1,252.1
1,372.0
1,510.3
1,586.1
1,675.8
1,834.9
1,960.5
107.7
122.7
138.4
150.3
163.6
179.5
193.4
206.4
27.0
31.7
20.5
30.7
24.6
14.3
32.1
21.3
1985:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec r
3,217.3
3,247.2
3,258.2
3,288.6
3,271.2
3,280.5
3,290.0
3,295.5
3,309.9
3,330.0
3,346.6
3,385.5
1,905.4
1,916.5
1,930.9
1,940.5
1,946.8
1,958.5
1,959.8
1,969.3
1,981.2
1,991.5
2,003.6
2,021.5
199.7
200.9
202.2
203.5
204.8
206.1
207.3
208.5
209.5
210.5
211.5
212.4
22.7
32.9
23.8
40.4
14.4
13.8
12.2
11.6
12.9
16.9
20.6
33.7
1986:
Jan"
3,382.7
2,028.2
213.3
17.4
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other iabor income differs from compensation of
employees {see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' iniury
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Nonfarm
149.2
160.1
160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
201.6
220.9
210.4
213.1
215.2
216.9
218.6
218.8
222.1
224.8
228.9
227.2
226.7
228.5
228.7
Rental
income of
persons *
9.3
5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
14.0
10.3
10.9
11.7
12.8
13.9
14.9
15.5
16.2
11.7
16.9
14.7
18.5
18.8
Personal
dividend
income
43.0
48.1
52.9
61.3
63.9
68.0
74.6
78.9
77.5
77.9
78.3
78.6
78.7
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.2
79.4
79.9
80.1
80.9
Personal
interest
income
Transfer
payments 5
Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance
Nonfarm
personal
income 6
182.5
221.4
271.9
335.4
369.7
385.7
442.2
456.0
244.0
273.1
324.7
368.1
410.6
442.2
454.7
484.5
69.8
81.0
88.6
104.5
112.3
119.8
132.4
149.1
1,769.3
1,983.1
2,215.8
2,465.6
2,618.7
2,795.3
3,053.3
3,245.9
461.7
463.0
463.8
462.7
461.0
457.9
453.3
449.8
448.6
449.0
450.1
451.3
475.1
478.2
479.5
480.9
481.2
480.9
490.0
486.0
488.4
489.8
491.4
492.5
145.5
146.2
147.2
147.6
148.1
149.1
149.1
149.7
150.4
151.1
151.9
153.1
3,168.0
3,188.0
3,208.2
3,221.9
3,230.5
3,240.5
3,251.9
3,258.1
3,271.2
3,287.3
3,300.0
3,325.8
451.8
500.7
157.2
3,339.2
4
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
5
6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1985, after a decline in the third quarter.
The decline in the third quarter to a large extent reflected the delay and catchup in income tax refunds in the first
and second quarters,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
1985
' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Period
Persona!
income
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
Less:
Personal
outlays *
Equals:
Personal
saving
Perc apita
disposable personal
inct me
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
Billions of dol ars
1978
1979
1980
1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.4
1981
1982
1988
1984
1985 r.
261.1
304.7
340.5
393.3
409.3
411.1
441.8
492.7
1,551.2
1,729.3
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,425.4
2,670,2
2,800.7
Per capita , personal
consulnption
expen itures
Current
dollars
change in
real per
capita
disposable
1982
dollars
Per cent
Do lars
1,441.1
1,611.3
1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,292.2
2,497.7
2,671.6
110.2
118.0
136.8
159.4
153.9
133.2
172.5
129.1
6,968
7,682
r
8,421
r
9,243
9,724
10,328
r
11,263
11,703
T
r
9,735
9,829
9,722
r
9,769
r
9,725
r
9,942
r
10,412
10,484
r
6.304
6,960
7,607
r
8,320
r
8,818
r
9,493
r
10.221
10,790
T
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands) 2
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
3.8
1.0
-1.1
.5
8,808
8,904
8,783
' 8,794
r
8,818
r
9,138
r
9,448
9,665
r
T
5
r
2.2
r
4.7
'.7
222,629
7.1
6.8 225,106
7.1 r 227,754
7.5 r230,182
6.8 r 232,549
5.5 r 234,829
6.5 r 237,067
C
4.6 239,316
Seas onally adju sted annual rates
1982: ET
rv
1983: I
U
m
IV
1984: I
II
in
IV
1985: I
II
HI
IV....
2,683.6
2,729.2
2,752.8
2.805.7
2,852.4
2,934.8
3,033.8
3,083.5
3.144.2
3,186.2
3,240.9
3,280.1
3,298.5
3,354.1
405.0
411.1
407.4
418.0
404.4
414.4
423.6
433.6
447.5
462.4
501.7
462.4
498.2
508.4
2,278.6
2,318.1
2,345.5
2,387.7
2,447.9
2,520.4
2,610.2
2,649.9
2,696.7
2,723.8
2,739.2
2,817.7
2,800.2
2,845.6
2,122.6
2,174.9
2,205.2
2,271.3
2,319.0
2,373.3
2,428.7
2,487.4
2,515.2
2,559.4
2,608.4
2,650.6
2,697.6
2,729.6
156.0
143.1
140.3
116.4
129.0
147.1
181.6
162.6
181.5
164.5
130.9
167.2
102.6
116.0
1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages (or the period.
r
9,786
9,929
T
10,024
* 10,182
r
10,412
r
10,693
r
l 1,050
r
ll,193
r
11,362
r
l 1,447
r
l 1,487
r
ll,790
r
11,687
11,847
r
r
9,720
9,749
r
9,793
r
9,846
r
9,982
r
10, 145
' 10,358
r
10,399
r
10,451
r
10,441
r
10,411
r
10,595
r
10,447
10,481
r
r
8,871
' 9,068
r
9,172
r
9,424
r
9,591
r
9,785
r
9,985
r
10, 198
r
10,276
r
10,423
r
10,588
r
10,726
r
10,877
10,966
r
8.812
8,904
r
8,960
r
9,114
r
9,195
r
9,283
r
8,359
r
9,474
r
9,452
r
9,506
r
9,597
* 9,639
r
9,723
9,701
r
|
r
-0.7
1.2
1.8
2.2
r
5.6
6.7
8.7
1.6
r
2.0
6.8
6.2
6.0
4.9
5.3
5.8
-.4
7.0
6.1
6.7
6.0
— 1.1
r
7.3
-5.5
1.3
4.8
5.9
3.7
4.1
r
r
232,851
233,466
' 233,981
r
234,509
'235,117
r
235,707
" 236,222
r
236,742
r
237,349
' 237,953
r
238,469
' 238,985
r
239,605
240,206
r
NOTE.—Population estimates revised beginning May 1980.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the third quarter of 1985, according to revised estimates, gross farm income fell $13.0 billion (annual rate) and
net farm income fell $11.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
240
240
200
F^—
i
r^7—rt=l
I
DME
160
^
160
1
p--^
GRC3SS FARM INC
120
^
120
^\
80
80
60
60
NE
40
V
•^
^^*"
/
X-7
20
V-
N
N
/
.**"
FARM INCOW E
/
N
\
^_
?%
»
«
\
^ j*
y \
. ^
^ /
v"••*/
**
*
\\ ,;
1
1
1
1
1
\
1979
1978
\
1980
\
20
/
'
J
\;
M
1
\
\
\ !
10
1977
N
N
S
\
1
1
\
\}
1 1 1
;\/
\
\
40
t >
1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1981
1982
u
I'l 1
1983
10
! i !
1
1984
1
1
1985
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
In come of farm ope rators from farmi og
(Jross farm incom
Net fanr income
Cas h marketing rece pts
Total
l
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983: I
n
m
TV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I rr
nr
m
Livestock and
products
inventory
changes 2
Current
dollars
1982 dollars 3
128.4
150.7
149.6
166.0
161.6
150.6
174.0
112.2
131.5
139.8
142.1
142.9
136.3
141.8
59.2
69.2
68.0
69.2
70.3
69.4
72.7
53.0
62.3
71.8
72.9
72.7
66.8
69.1
2.1
5.0
5.9
5.8
-1.4
-10.6
7.8
101.0
119.0
129.4
136.1
136.9
135.6
139.5
27.4
31.7
20.2
29.8
24.6
15.0
34.5
38.0
40.3
23.6
31.8
24.6
14.5
31.9
152.9
143.6
151.7
154.3
143.2
133.0
141.2
127.6
71.0
68.9
67.9
70.0
72.2
64.1
73.3
57.6
-10.6
13.9
-12.9
4.9
135.1
134.9
135.5
136.9
17.8
8.7
16.2
17.3
17.4
8.5
15.5
16.4
175.7
167.3
173.7
179.8
139.3
139.0
141.5
147.6
75.5
70.8
71.2
73.5
63.8
68.2
70.3
74.2
2.0
8.7
10.3
10.2
139.2
140.2
140.0
138.5
36.5
27.0
33.6
41.2
34.2
25.1
30.9
37.6
171.3
164.2
151.2
140.2
134.0
134.2
72.3
67.3
68.6
67.9
66.7
65.6
4.0
.6
1.8
136.5
134.5
133.0
34.8
29.6
18.2
31.5
26.6
16.2
1
Cash marketing receipts and inventor,' changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.
Crops
Production
expenses
3
Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982= 100).
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.
CORPORATE PROFITS
in the third quarter of 1985, corporate profits before tax rose $9.9 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose
$4.7 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
280
280
240
240
200
200
160
120
40
40
1985
5OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits after taX
Prc fits (before tix) with inve ntory valuati 3n adjustment '
Doinestic indust ies
Nonfinancial
Period
Total
2
Total
Financial
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
208.2
214.1
194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
224.4
186.0
180.4
159.6
173.8
131.2
164.2
200.1
193.0
29.1
27.8
21.0
16.5
11.8
22.7
19.2
22.3
1982: m
IV
161.6
150.7
133.0
121.6
12.4
18.7
1983: I
n
m
163.7
190.5
207.3
218.7
136.2
161.1
174.4
185.1
22.0
25.0
22.4
21.2
n
m
234.4
241.8
226.5
226.3
201.0
212.3
193.3
193.7
20.8
20.4
17.2
18.4
n
m
220.6
220.9
233.2
189.4
189.3
203.0
19.2
2?
23.8
IV
1984: I
IV
1985: I
3
156.8
152.6
138.6
157.3
119.4
141.6
180.9
170.7
120.6
102.9
114.2
136.1
152.0
163.9
180.2
191.9
176.1
175.3
170.2
166.7
179.2
IV"
1
2
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Manufacturing
Profits
before tax
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
sale and
retail
trade
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
-25.3
-43.2
-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.0
-5.4
-.6
88.7
87.5
77.1
88.5
58.0
71.3
88.5
76.9
27.3
28.7
21.6
32.5
34.6
39.1
50.7
49.6
233.5
257.2
237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
225.0
83.5
88.0
84.8
81.1
63.1
75.2
93.6
85.5
150.0
169.2
152.3
145.4
106.5
129.8
144.0
139.5
44.7
50.1
54.7
63.6
66.9
70.8
78.1
83.5
105.2
119.1
97.6
81.8
39.6
59.0
65.9
56.0
64.3
46.8
32.9
33.6
171.6
164.1
64.3
59.8
107.3
104.3
66.6
68.5
40.7
35.8
-10.0
-13.4
52.3
64.6
78.9
89.2
32.6
40.8
39.9
43.1
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
58.9
73.8
84.1
84.0
108.2
126.0
141.3
143.6
69.3
69.6
71.1
73.1
38.9
56.4
70.3
70.6
-3.4
-9.3
-18.1
-8.9
94.2
94.9
82.2
82.7
46.8
52.7
51.5
51.8
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
99.1
100.6
87.4
87.4
148.3
146.7
140.3
140.6
75.3
77.5
78.9
80.7
73.1
69.2
61.3
60.0
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
-1.6
77.3
73.4
79.7
48.7
50.6
53.6
220.0
218.7
228.6
83.4
82.3
87.4
136.6
136.4
141.1
82.0
83.1
83.9
85.0
54.6
53.3
57.3
.7
2.2
4.7
r
-10.0
3
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1985,
business fixed investment rose $12.4 billion (annual
rate) from its third quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $5.2
billion. There was a $5.5
billion
decrease in inventories following an increase of $0.2 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
8001
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1800
700
700
600
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT
500
400
NONRESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT
RESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT
100
CHANGE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES
-100
-100
1977
1978
1985
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Inixed investmen t
Gross
Period
domestic
investment
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r.
1982:
1983:
Change ir business
inven ones
Nonresidential
Total
Total
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
Residential
Total
416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
668.6
388.2
441.9
445.3
491.5
471.8
508.3
607.0
661.4
259.0
302.8
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.3
427.9
475.8
81.0
99.5
113.9
138.5
143.3
126.1
147.6
170.3
178.0
203.3
208.9
230.7
223.4
230.2
280.2
305.5
129.2
139.1
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.0
179.1
185.6
28.6
13.0
-8.3
24.0
-24.5
-6.4
67.1
7.2
m
IV
452.2
409.6
461.2
469.5
360.7
354.9
140.2
137.6
220.5
217.3
100.5
114.7
-9.0
-59.9
n
m
I
425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6
467.7
489.2
524.0
552.1
338.0
343.0
357.3
386.8
127.6
121.5
124.7
130.5
210.4
221.5
232.6
256.3
129.7
146.2
166.7
165.4
-42.7
-5.5
-2.8
25.5
n
m
658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2
566.7
604.5
619.5
637.2
394.1
423.4
435.9
458.1
135.0
147.0
151.3
157.2
259.1
276.5
284.5
300.9
172.6
181.0
183.7
179.1
92.1
68.9
68.3
39.0
n
mr
iv .
657.6
672.8
666.1
678.0
639.1
657.3
665.9
683.4
459.6
474.2
478.5
490.9
166.1
169.7
170.4
175.2
293.5
304.5
308.1
315.7
179.4
183.1
187.4
192.6
18.5
15.5
.2
-5.5
IV
1984: I
IV
1985: I
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts.
Nonfarm
26.5
7.9
-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.8
58.0
10.7
-12.4
-51.1
-33.7
1.8
15.5
19.4
71.6
61.2
62.8
36.4
14.2
10.8
3.1
14.5
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department October-November 1985 survey, business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 2.4 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 is expected to
be 8.4 percent above the 1984 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
400
400
ALL INDUSTRIES
300
300
200
200
NONMANUFACTURING -^
I
-MANUFACTURING-
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
1
1978
1980
1979
1 1
1981
1
1982
1 1
1983
1984
1986
1985
J//SURVEYED QUARTERLY
JL/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda
Industries surveyed quarterly
NOTunanufactui ing
M mufaeturii *g
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
19854
19864
1983: I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n4
m
w
1986: I 4
II 4
All
industries
Total
217.76
254.96
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
384.22
393.52
78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
152.42
152.30
289.36
295.24
308.79
325.75
337.95
349.97
361.48
368.29
371.16
387.83
388.90
388.98
402.13
405.99
111.32
112.73
116.70
124.05
129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96
145.65
154.33
154.04
155.68
154.74
159.16
Nondurable
goods
Total '
Mining
Transportation
Public
utilities
Commercial
and
other
39.46
48.50
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
72.53
70.76
39.13
47.42
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
79.89
81.54
139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
231.79
241.23
11.22
12.81
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.84
14.85
13.36
16.05
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
17.77
18.67
31.50
35.63
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.23
46.13
83.09
94.56
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
149.96
161.58
50.67
50.12
53.96
57.58
61.23
64.03
68.26
71.43
69.87
73.96
72.85
73.46
71.95
74.55
60.65
62.61
62.74
66.48
68.68
71.93
74.18
75.53
75.78
80.36
81.19
82.22
82.79
84.60
178.04
182.51
192.09
201.70
208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33
225.51
233.51
234.86
233.30
247.39
246.83
14.69
14.17
15.59
16.34
17.24
16.38
16.82
17.00
15.66
16.51
15.94
15.24
15.30
15.75
13.08
13.51
14.04
15.24
15.29
17.01
17.49
16.28
16.22
17.50
19.09
18.25
18.80
18.98
44.69
44.46
44.68
46.02
47.08
47.94
47.92
46.92
48.46
48.47
48.14
47.85
48.99
47.53
105.58
110.37
117.79
124.09
128.42
132.67
136.80
141.13
145.17
151.02
151.69
151.96
164.30
164.57
Durable
goods
1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.
10
Total
nonfarm
business 2
245.34
284.94
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
Nonmanufactu ring
Manufacturing
78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
152.42
152.30
111.32
112.73
116.70
124.05
129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96
145.65
154.33
154.04
155.68
154.74
159.16
Total
166.76
189.02
202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16
Surveyed
quarterly
139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
231.79
241.23
Surveyed
annually"
27.58
29.98
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
178.04
182.51
192.09
201.70
208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33
225.51
233.51
234.86
233.30
247.39
246.83
3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social
services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1985, corrected for biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In January, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose nearly 400,000 and unemployment fell 228,000, after
adjustment for a change in estimation procedures effective with January 1986 data.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
120
4
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
—
1978
1979
1985
1986
•16 YEARS Of AGE AND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Period
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June....
July ....
Aug
Sept ....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan "...
1
Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
NSA
166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
179,081
179,219
179,368
179,501
179,649
179,798
179,967
180,131
180,304
180,470
180,642
180,810
181,361
Armed
k
t
JLabor
tore
6
T
resident
Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces
Nonagricultural
Civilian
labor force
oral
Tntol
NSA
Forces
1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,697
1,703
1,701
1,702
1,705
1,702
1,704
1,726
1,732
1,700
1,702
1,698
1,691
106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
100,421
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
104,962
106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
116,451
116,685
117,036
116,958
117,044
116,726
116,976
117,069
117,522
117,814
117,832
117,927
118,477
108,012
108,290
108,652
108,574
108,644
108,303
108,575
108,936
109,251
109,513
109,671
109,904
110,646
114,754
114,982
106,315
106,587
106,951
106,872
106,939
106,601
106,871
107,210
107,519
107,813
107,969
108,206
108,955
115,335
115,256
115,339
115,024
115,272
115,343
115,790
116,114
116,130
116,229
116,786
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces).
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
' Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in
Unemplc yment
Civilian ernployment
"Rjioi
-ive si-
Agricultural
Total
Part-time
for
economic
reasons *
95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
3,373
4,064
4,499
5,852
5.997
5,512
5,334
102,996
103,262
103,637
103,519
103,655
103,461
103,751
104,115
104,502
104,755
104,899
105,055
5,392
5,098
5,421
5,402
5,550
5,278
5,328
5,413
5,299
5,241
5,295
5,294
3,299 105,655
5,275
3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,319
3,325
3,314
3,353
3,284
3,140
3,120
3,095
3,017
3,058
3,070
3,151
Total
6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,439
8,395
8,384
8,384
8,400
8,423
8,401
8,133
8,271
8,301
8,161
8,023
7,831
15
weeks
and
over
1,241
1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2,247
2,413
2,400
2,374
2,274
2,328
2,329
2,274
2,307
2,277
2,205
2,188
2,056
Labor force
partici; mtion
rate (pe rcent)
Total 2
Civilian 3
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.7
65.1
65.0
65.1
65.2
65.2
65.2
64.9
63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
64.7
64.8
64.9
64.8
64.8
64.6
64.7
64.7
64.8
65.0
64.9
64.9
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.2
65.3
65.2
65.2
65.3
estimation procedures.
NOTE.—Seasonally iadjusted data beginning 1981 are as revised in January issue of Economic
Indicators.
'ndicators.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In January, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent (from 6.8 percent in December)
and the civilian unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent (from 6.9 percent in December).
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
20
TV]
15
BLACK
AND OTHER
10
10
o Illinium
1982
1985
1983
1986
1982
1986
'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemp] oyment ra te (percen of civilia n labor force in group)
Unemployment
rate,
all
workers 1
Period
B 1 sex and ago
All
civilian
workers
Women
20 years
and
over
16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
5.1
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2
11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7
12.3
14.3
18.9
18.4
18.2
17.9
18.8
18.6
19.3
17.5
18.1
19.8
18.4
18.8
6.4
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.9
18.4
5.7
5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5
7.4
7.1
5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2
4.2
5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
5.7
6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.4
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.3
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.9
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.2
1986: Jan
6.7
6.6
1
1
6.1
5.7
1
Both
sexes
16-19
years
Men
20 years
and over
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.8
1
.
White
Black
and
other
Black
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
Married
men,
spouse
present
Women
who
maintain
families
Labor
force
Fulltime
workers
Parttime
workers
8.8
8.8
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
5.5
6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3
8.3
9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4
5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
10.5
10.4
7.2
6.8
9.3
9.3
13.7
14.4
13.8
13.8
13.9
13.2
13.5
12.8
13.7
13.5
14.1
13.4
15.1
16.0
15.2
15.2
15.4
14.4
15.0
14.1
15.2
14.9
15.6
14.9
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.6
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3
10.2
10.9
10.3
10.7
10.8
9.9
10.3
10.8
11.3
10.4
10.0
9.4
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
9.3
8.8
9.5
9.7
12.8
14.4
6.3
4.3
9.9
6.4
9.4
time lost
(percent) 2
6.3
7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9
8.6
8.1
9.5
9.4
9.0
9.3
9.6
8.8
9.0
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.1
7.9
7.9
7.8
8.4
7.6
10.0
.-L.
1
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
2
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
12
By s elected grou; s
By race
NOTE .—Seasonally
Indicators.
jjusted data beginning 1981 are as revised in January issue of Economic
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In January, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 5-14
weeks, and for 15-26 weeks rose while the percentage out of work for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean and the
median duration of unemployment fell.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
70
DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
60
—
50
JOB LOSERS
40
—
30
REENTRANTS
20
20
NEW ENTRANTS
10
—
-
10
JOB LEAVERS
MIUlM'H
1986
1982
1983
Illllllllll
1984
MMllMU1
1985
Illllllllll
1986
•StASONAUY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Dur ation of u neraplojTnent
Period
Unemployment
(thousands)
I ercent di stributioi
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
Be ison for imemployment:
percent listributk n
State
progra ms
Number of
ks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Medi-
Job
losers
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 1
Weekly average, th ousands
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
11.7
11.2
7.9
7,7
9.6
10.6
25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,480
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
8,439
8,395
8,384
8,384
8,400
8,423
8,401
8,133
8,271
8,301
8,161
8,023
43.1
41.7
42.1
41.9
42.6
41.6
42.1
41.7
42.0
41.6
42.7
42.1
30.2
29.6
29.5
29.9
30.6
30.4
30.0
30.6
30.2
30.8
30.2
30.7
11.1
12.7
12.6
12.2
12.5
12.4
12.9
12.8
12.5
12.8
11.0
12.1
15.6
16.0
15.9
16.0
14.3
15.5
14.9
15.0
15.3
14.8
16.1
15.1
15.9
16.0
15.9
16.1
15.0
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.4
15.7
15.4
6.8
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.8
7.1
7.2
6.9
7.0
6.9
6.9
50.6
50.4
49.6
50.3
47.6
49.6
50.2
50.8
50.2
49.1
50.0
48.8
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.4
11.7
10.7
10.7
10.3
11.1
9.9
10.9
26.6
26.6
27.4
27.1
28.4
26.6
26.1
26.9
28.3
27.2
27.2
27.6
12.4
12.6
12.8
12.5
13.6
12.1
13.1
11.5
11.1
12.7
12.9
12.8
' 2,590
r
2,646
r
2,620
' 2,575
r
2,562
' 2,581
' 2,609
' 2,585
' 2,560
r
2,535
r
2,560
T
2,564
1986: Jan
7,831
42.4
31.3
12.4
13.9
14.9
6.8
48.0
12.7
26.3
13.0
2,591
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RRf programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
488
460
583
438
378
3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,565
r
385
r
3,361
3,339
3,113
2,766
2,455
2,337
2,523
2,361
2,212
'2,227
2,468
411
394
r
390
r
389
r
398
r
381
r
386
r
384
r
380
r
382
'391
r
370
Note.—Seasonally adjusted unemployment data beginning 1981 are as revised in January- issue of
Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 566,000 in January.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
24
100
90
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
80
16
70
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
r
14
60
20
50
18
mi mil inn inn iiiiiliini
40
CC)NSTRUCTIO N
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
II
|
""'
—- —'
[IIMlllMM Minimi! Illllllllll Illllllllll llllll||||l
1982
1983
1985
1984
1982
1986
1983
1984
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1985
1986
'
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
"SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Thousands of wage and salary workers; [ seasonally adjusted]
nonagricultural
employment
Total 2
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985P
89,823
90,406
91,156
89,566
90,196
94,461
97,692
26,461
25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,730
25,054
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June...
July....
Aug....
Sept....
Oct
Nov....
Dec '..
96,419
96,591
96,910
97,120
97,421
97,473
97,707
97,977
98,217
98,559
98,801
99,069
1986: Jan p .. 99,635
Period
Se rvice-produc ing industr es
Goods-p reducing in dustries
t i
Total
M anufacturin g
Construction
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Wholesale
trade
Retail
trade
Government
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
Services
Total
Durable
goo s
4,463
4,346
4,188
3,905
3,948
4,345
4,661
21,040
20,285
20,170
18,781
18,434
19,412
19,424
12,760
12,187
12,109
11,039
10,732
11,522
11,565
8,280
8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702
7,890
7,859
63,363
64,748
65,659
65,753
66,862
69,731
72,638
5,136
5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,171
5,301
5,204
5,275
5,358
5,278
5,268
5,550
5,770
14,989
15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,584
17,418
4,975
5,160
5,298
5,341
5,468
5,682
5,924
17,112
17,890
18,619
19,036
19,694
20,761
21,931
15,947
16,241
16,031
15,837
15,869
15,984
16,294
2,773
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,873
25,112
25,062
25,056
25,090
25,066
25,010
24,980
25,015
24,962
25,051
25,089
25,145
4,534
4,525
4,553
4,641
4,658
4,638
4,660
4,688
4,721
4,753
4,754
4,761
19,604
19,561
19,526
19,467
19,426
19,398
19,351
19,362
19,279
19,338
19,381
19,431
11,702
11,675
11,651
11,608
11,586
11,560
11,509
11,519
11,449
11,493
11,512
11,536
7,902
7,886
7,875
7,859
7,840
7,838
7,842
7,843
7,830
7,845
7,869
7,895
71,307
71,529
71,854
72,030
72,355
72,463
72,727
72,962
73,255
73,508
73,712
73,924
5,259
5,272
5,269
5,278
5,301
5,295
5,302
5,282
5,317
5,327
5,342
5,345
5,686
5,697
5,714
5,733
5,748
5,768
5,773
5,791
5,805
5,830
5,833
5,845
17,090
17,160
17,249
17,280
17,392
17,425
17,453
17,514
17,539
17,610
17,640
17,715
5,790
5,809
5,835
5,858
5,888
5,906
5,932
5,959
5,987
6,011
6,048
6,069
21,382
21,480
21,644
21,723
21,813
21,856
21,926
22,073
22,155
22,244
22,365
22,438
16,100
16,111
16,143
16,158
16,213
16,213
16,341
16,343
16,452
16,486
16,484
16,512
2,836
2,834
2,850
2,859
2,873
2,872
2,878
2,886
2,904
2,892
2,904
2,911
25,335
4,918
19,466
11,550
7,916
74,300
5,377
5,867
17,922
6,104
22,552
16,478
2,910
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultura! employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-
14
Total
Nondurable
goods
Total
Federal
putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
* Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average weeklj
hours
Period
Manufa during
Total
private
nonagricultural 1
Ind ex,
1977 = 100
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
$6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83
9.18
9.52
155.4
160.7
165.5
35.1
35.1
35.2
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1
40.6
40.1
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.4
40.3
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6
8.44
8.49
8.52
8.54
8.55
8.59
8.57
8.60
8.65
8.64
8.67
8.74
9.38
9.41
9.43
9.48
9.49
9.51
9.53
9.56
9.56
9.58
9.61
9.66
163.0
164.0
164.4
164.8
164.9
165.7
165.4
165.7
166.7
166.4
167.1
168.3
35.1
40.9
3.5
8.68
9.63
167.7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec"
1986: Jan p .
Percent chan| e from a vear
earlit r 4 5
1977
dollars 3
Current
dollars
$5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02
8.33
8.58
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.3
35.1
1985:
Manufacturing
Adjuste d hourly earnin gs index — total private
nonagric ultural 2
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
Total
private
nonagricultural '
Overtime
Total
35.8
35.7
35.3
1978
1979
Average giross hourlv
earn ings
108.2
116.8
127.3
138.9
148.5
Current
dollars
1977 dollars
92.6
93.4
94.9
94.8
94.3
8.2
7.9
9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
3.4
3.0
0.5
3.1
-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.6
-.1
-.5
94.4
94.7
94.5
94.4
94.3
94.5
r
94.2
r
94.2
r
94.6
r
94.1
r
94.1
94.3
2.7
3.3
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
-.5
-.2
93.7
2.9
100.5
97.4
93.5
r
-.7
-1.2
g
-.8
1.0
.0
.4
.1
-.4
-.5
g
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent ch ange from
a year earlier,
total private n anagricultural 5
Avera *e gross weekly earnmgs
Period
Current dollars
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec"
1986: Janp.
1
Manufacturing
Total imvate
nonagnc ultural *
$203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
294.05
301.16
296.24
298.00
299.90
298.90
300.11
301.51
299.95
301.86
303.62
303.26
303.45
306.77
304.67
Retail trade
Current dollars
1977 dollars 3
$189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
168.09
171.26
173.48
171.60
r
171.63
172.15
172.46
r
!71.19
r
171.69
172.00
r
170.81
r
!71.61
T
r 172.32
r
m.62
170.86
171.96
170.21
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners
and clerical workers (on a 1977= 100 base).
2
Construction
1977 dollars
Current dollars
$249.27
269.34
$318.69
342.99
$130.20
138.62
288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
373.63
385.56
380.83
377.34
380.97
381.10
383.40
384.20
384.06
388.14
389.09
389.91
391.13
396.06
393.87
367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
456.92
462.20
459.94
463.81
465.58
465.88
460.60
454.96
459.85
459.75
466.17
464.65
459.27
460.16
470.09
147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
176.40
177.31
176.42
177.01
177.31
176.42
178.20
177.61
176.72
176.42
177.60
176.71
177.00
176.68
176.40
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.8
2.4
2.0
2.1
3.3
2.1
2.4
2.8
1.8
2.6
2.4
3.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
0.2
3.1
5.8
-1.5
-1.2
1.9
1.3
— 1.1
-1.2
-1.3
.6
-2.0
-1.5
-1.2
-1.9
-.4
3
.1
1.0
— 1.1
-.9
* Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
5
3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output p r hour of
all pe rsons
Period
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Outi ut '
Business
sector
Hours of all
perst n s 2
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Compens ation per
hoi r 3
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Real com pensation
per h our 4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Unit lab or costs
Implic price
defla tor 5
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
107.7
119.8
132.9
107.3
117.0
127.6
107.0
116.5
127.8
19'"7 = 100; [uarterly c ata seasoilally adjus ted
1978
1979
1980
100.8
99.6
99.2
100.8
99.2
98.8
105.8
107.8
106.6
105.9
107.9
106.7
104.9
108.3
107.5
105.1
108.7
108.0
108.5
119.1
131.5
108.6
118.9
131.3
100.8
99.4
96.7
100.9
99.2
96.6
107.7
119.6
132.6
1981
1982
1983 r.
1984 r.
1985 r.
100.7
100.3
103.1
105.2
105.4
99.8
99.2
102.5
104.1
104.0
108.9
105.5
110.0
119.0
122.2
108.5
104.9
110.2
118.9
122.1
108.2
105.2
106.8"
113.1
115.9
108.7
105.8
107.5
114.2
117.4
143.7
154.9
161.9
168.2
175.1
143.6
154.8
162.1
168.0
174.3
95.7
97.3
98.5
98.2
98.6
95.7
97.2
98.6
98.0
98.2
142.7
154.5
157.1
159.9
166.1
144.0
156.0
158.1
161.4
167.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.7
163.1
140.3
149.2
154.2
159.6
164.8
100.3
101.0
99.1
99.7
105.1
105.0
104.5
104.2
104.8
103.9
105.5
104.5
156.6
158.3
156.3
158.2
97.2
97.9
97.0
97.8
156.2
156.7
157.6
158.6
149.3
150.2
150.3
151.4
102.3
103.5
103.1
103.6
101.3
102.8
102.9
103.0
106.6
109.3
110.8
113.4
106.2
109.3
111.4
113.8
104.2
105.6
107.5
109.5
104.8
106.3
108.2
110.5
160.1
161.5
162.1
164.1
160.4
161.6
162.3
164.0
99.0
98.7
98.1
98.3
99.1
98.8
98.2
98.2
156.6
156.0
157.2
158.4
158.3
157.2
157.7
159.1
151.1
152.0
153.7
154.9
152.3
153.6
154.8
156.1
IV ....
104.9
105.5
105.3
105.0
104.0
104.5
104.2
103.8
117.1
119.2
119.6
120.1
117.1
119.2
119.5
120.0
111.6
113.0
113.6
114.4
112.6
114.0
114.7
115.6
166.1
167.5
169.1
170.4
165.9
167.4
168.8
170.1
98.3
98.2
98.2
98.1
98.1
98.1
98.0
97.9
158.4
158.7
160.6
162.3
159.6
160.1
162.0
163.9
156.6
158.0
159.4
160.8
157.1
158.8
160.5
161.9
Ir
II r.
HI r....
IV r....
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.1
104.1
104.2
104.3
103.4
121.2
121.9
122.6
123.0
121.1
121.8
122.6
123.0
115.1
115.6
115.8
117.0
116.3
116.9
117.5
118.9
172.4
174.3
176.1
177.6
172.1
173.7
175.0
176.4
98.5
98.5
98.9
98.7
98.3
98.2
98.3
98.1
163.8
165.2
166.3
169.0
165.3
166.8
167.8
170.5
161.6
162.7
163.5
164.5
163.0
164.5
165.5
166.1
1982:
HI r....
IV....
1983: I 'r
II .r
m r ....
IV ....
1984:
Ir
II r.r
m r ....
1985:
Pei cent chan ;e; quarte rly data a seasonal! y adjusted annual ratea
0.8
1978
1979
1980
-1.2
1981
1982
1983 r.
1984 r.
1985 '.
1982:
III r....
IV....
1983: I 'r
II .
-.3
1.5
-.4
2.8
2.1
_2
1.0
-.6
3.3
1.6
-.2
.3
3.0
.0
2.4
5.1
4.9
IV....
1.9
6.5
6.1
.4
.4
Ir
II r.
5.1
2.5
3.6
2.2
Q
-1.3
-1.3
m '....
1984:
r
-1.5
Ill ....
rv....
1985:
0.8
-1.6
— .4
Ir
II r.
r
Ill r ....
IV ....
-1.3
1.0
.8
1.6
-3.1
1
1.0
.2
.4
-3.1
5.8
1.9
5.9
1.8
-1.1
-1.1
2.1
-3.1
4.3
8.2
2.7
-3.1
4
4.9
3.2
-.8
1.7
-3.3
5.0
8.0
2.7
-3.4
-1.2
6.3
7.6
10.5
12.2
5.8
9.5
7.9
9.0
13.6
12.1
5.1
3.5
-•7
.7
27
1.5
6.0
2.4
-3.4
-3.3
.7
-2.7
1.6
6.3
2.8
-3.4
-3.5
16
10.5
8.6
9.5
10.5
9.2
7.8
4.5
3.9
4.1
9.4
7.7
4.7
3.7
3.7
7.5
4.5
0.8
-1.4
-2.7
0.9
-1.6
i)
rj
7.7
7.7
11.1
10.8
11.2
11.0
7.3
9.1
9.0
7.0
8.9
9.7
1.6
1.3
-.3
.5
-.9
1.5
1.5
-.6
.1
7.7
8.2
1.7
1.8
3.8
8.3
8.4
1.3
2.1
3.9
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.8
2.8
9.7
6.3
3.4
3.5
3.3
7.5
5.0
.1
2.9
.2
3.4
7.2
1.5
7.6
2.6
5.6
2.4
5.7
3.0
4.4
-.9
-.9
2.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
1.1
5.3
7.4
7.5
1.1
5.8
7.5
8.6
4.7
3.4
1.5
5.1
5.6
3.1
1.8
4.0
-1.0
-2.6
5.3
3.1
3.1
1.4
3.6
2.3
2.6
4.4
3.3
2
2
.0
'.8
4.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
2.4
4.4
4.4
3.6
2.1
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.7
3.7
2.6
1.4
-1.1
-2.3
.8
-.2
2
-.3
.2
-.3
-1.4
-2.8
7.5
1.3
1.7
7.2
1.2
1.8
8.1
4.9
2.1
3.1
8.2
4.9
2.5
3.1
4.9
3.3
4.1
3.1
4.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
-.6
— .4
-.4
4.9
4.5
1.2
1.3
4.8
4.6
3.6
2.3
2.5
1.1
3.6
2.3
2.6
1.5
2.5
1.5
.9
4.3
2.6
2.1
2.1
4.7
4.8
4.4
4.2
3.4
4.7
3.8
2.8
3.3
1.5
.4
1.6
-.8
1.4
-.2
.3
-1.0
3.7
3.5
2.5
6.7
3.6
3.6
2.4
6.6
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
Hours of ail persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
2
8.5
9.7
4
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes baser! on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in January, following a rise of 0.7 percent in December. The index for
January was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
140
2ZU
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT! ON
FINAL PRODUCTS
-
200
120
DEFEN SE AND
SP/^CE
EQUlf WENT
180
160
100
"^—
^imilmii Illlillllll Illlillllll
iiinltmimmlmii
140
1<IO
_MANUFACTURING PRODUCTKDN
-•**""""
120 '
EQUIPMENT .>
,--- —
f
ino
\ '"/x
CONSUM
GOODS
:R
lm
lllll|lllll Illlillllll
fy^ DUR ABLE
lllll|||lll
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ml iiiiilinii
Illlillllll
PERCENT*
Illlillllll Illlillllll
90
140
.x' *
^^^
f
NONDURABLE -y=a
J^V^*
**
•"
»—BUSINESS
^"f
X
.—--""
120
100
\
_~
^, j****"
.MANUFA CTURING C:APACITY iTILJZATIOr-4 RATE
UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION
120
,"
80
UTILITIES"
•i i"
«~i
'
-
70
100
60
1982
1986
1983
Illlillllll Illlillllll
1982
1983
iiiiilinii
1984
"SfASONAUY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
Illlillllll Illlillllll
1985
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
To tal
indus trial
produ ction
Period
Index,
1977 = 100
1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r .
Nov r
Dec r
1986: Jan "
1
Output as percent of capacity.
Manufacturing
Percent
change
from year
earlier
100.0
106.5
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5
123.6
123.7
124.0
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
124.4
125.4
126.3
126.7
Capacity utilization
rate, pe rcent '
Industry pro< uction indexes , 1977=100
6.5
3.9
-1.9
2.2
-7.1
5.9
11.5
2.2
4.4
3.7
3.3
2.8
2.3
1.6
.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
2.4
2.5
Mining
Total
Durable
Utilities
Nondurable
84.21
49.10
35.11
9.83
5.96
107.1
111.5
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.9
127.1
125.9
125.8
126.3
126.6
126.6
126.7
126.9
128.2
127.7
127.2
128.3
129.3
129.8
108.2
113.9
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.8
128.2
127.8
127.2
128.0
128.2
127.9
127.6
127.9
129.4
128.3
127.7
129.1
130.1
130.8
105.5
108.2
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.5
125.6
123.2
123.8
123.9
124.3
124.7
125.5
125.6
126.6
126.9
126.4
127.1
128.2
128.4
103.6
106.4
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
110.9
109.0
110.5
109.5
110.5
109.6
109.8
110.6
108.7
108.3
108.4
108.4
107.1
107.0
108.2
103.1
105.9
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.9
113.2
113.0
115.8
113.9
113.6
113.7
113.4
110.7
110.3
113.2
112.4
113.0
114.4
113.2
Manufacturing
Industrial
materials
84.2
84.6
79.3
86.3
87.1
81.1
81.1
71.7
75.3
82.3
80.2
81.7
81.5
81.4
80.9
80.1
80.1
79.5
79.9
79.5
79.3
79.2
79.7
79.6
78.3
70.3
74.0
80.8
80.3
80.7
80.4
80.5
80.5
80.3
80.1
80.1
80.7
80.1
79.6
80.1
80.5
80.6
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Produ ts
Mate rials
^inal produc s
Intern lediate pro( ucts
Equipment
C jnsumer go ods
Period
Total
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Total
1
Business
Defense
and
space
equipment
Total
Construction
supplies
Busi-
Total
Energy
supplies
44.77
106.9
111.0
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.8
132.0
25.52
104.3
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.2
120.7
6.89
103.7
99.9
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.6
112.9
18.63
104.5
105.4
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.2
123.6
19.25
110.3
120.4
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
140.5
147.1
14.34
112.2
124.7
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.9
141.3
3.67
101.2
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
157.9
173.6
12.94
106.9
110.8
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.9
130.6
5.95
106.9
108.7
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
119.0
6.99
106.9
112.7
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
134.2
140.5
42.28
105.9
110.3
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.6
114.7
11.69
101.1
104.1
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
104.0
104.3
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Ocf
Novr
Dec r
130.4
130.4
130.8
131.3
131.7
131.6
131.8
133.3
133.3
131.9
133.7
134.7
118.8
119.1
119.8
119.5
120.0
120.4
120.1
121.5
121.8
120.8
122.8
124.2
112.8
112.8
113.5
111.5
111.8
112.0
111.3
114.0
112.9
111.4
115.5
116.8
121.1
121.4
122.1
122.5
123.1
123.5
123.4
124.2
125.1
124.3
125.5
126.9
145.7
145.3
145.4
146.9
147.1
146.6
147.3
149.0
148.6
146.6
148.3
148.6
140.4
140.0
140.2
142.0
141.9
140.7
141.3
143.0
142.2
139.6
141.7
142.2
165.3
167.3
169.0
170.1
171.2
173.4
173.9
175.5
177.5
178.7
180.7
180.7
126.8
127.7
128.6
129.3
130.3
131.4
130.7
132.0
132.3
131.5
132.7
133.2
116.2
115.7
116.9
117.4
118.1
119.2
119.4
121.5
121.3
120.0
121.0
121.1
135.9
137.9
138.6
139.4
140.7
141.7
140.3
140.9
141.7
141.2
142.8
143.6
115.4
115.4
115.5
115.0
114.2
114.3
113.8
114.5
114.2
114.2
114.3
115.2
103.9
104.9
106.2
105.3
105.3
105.1
103.5
102.7
103.4
104.2
102.9
104.3
1986: Jan '
135.4
125.2
119.4
127.4
148.8
143.0
180.4
133.9
122.2
115.3
103.8
1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
1
.
Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately.
[1977= 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
No ndurable inanufactui es
Durable m uiufaetures
Transp station
equipment
Primary metals
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
5.25
104.6
95.9
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
105.6
112.8
2.30
102.4
102.0
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
2.79
103.1
98.3
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.8
101.8
4.54
107.8
112.7
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
147.9
155.3
8.05
106.8
111.4
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.7
127.1
7.96
104.3
106.7
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
127.1
131.0
120.4
120.5
120.8
120.7
120.9
121.8
123.7
126.8
126.2
124.5
126.5
126.8
113.0
112.5
111.3
110.9
110.5
110.5
112.8
116.8
115.3
111.7
114.5
115.3
109.2
109.1
109.5
110.9
112.2
113.5
113.0
114.8
115.9
116.5
115.7
102.6
103.1
101.3
100.2
100.3
99.2
100.6
100.4
101.8
102.6
103.9
106.0
150.4
150.3
152.6
154.2
155.4
156.7
154.3
156.3
156.2
157.0
158.9
161.5
125.7
125.8
126.5
125.8
126.7
126.4
126.4
128.2
129.0
127.9
128.1
128.2
128.2
129.4
128.5
130.8
131.4
131.8
132.2
132.6
132.5
130.7
131.4
132.4
129.0
118.5
Iron and
steel
Fabricated
metal
products
Nonelectrical
machinery
Electrical
machinery
5.33
107.0
108.5
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.4
80.6
3.49
107.5
108.0
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.5
70.7
6.46
105.7
109.4
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.8
107.8
9.54
111.7
122.6
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
142.0
146.6
7.15
112.9
125.7
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
172.4
169.3
9.13
106.3
108.3
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
113.6
123.2
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Ocf
Nov r
Decr.
81.7
80.2
81.8
81.4
76.4
78.3
79.0
82.0
80.3
83.1
83.3
81.5
71.0
68.5
73.2
71.9
65.4
67.6
68.7
71.6
69.7
74.4
75.3
72.7
106.4
107.6
108.6
109.1
108.3
107.4
107.3
107.8
107.5
108.4
107.9
108.3
145.0
144.9
146.5
148.9
149.1
145.6
147.5
149.2
146.5
143.0
145.6
147.5
176.0
173.2
173.1
168.9
169.3
169.5
165.7
166.1
165.1
165.1
168.7
172.0
1986: Jan"
84.1
108.3
147.0
172.3
Period
Total
1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Total
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
161.0
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Constructio n contracts 2
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Resiclential
Total
Commercial
and industrial
New housing
Total l
Other
Federal,
State, and
local
Total value
index
(1977 = 100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
I illions of dollars
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
215.9
241.9
238.0
246.7
236.9
268.7
313.0
342.8
170.0
193.1
183.0
193.3
186.1
218.0
257.8
280.5
103.8
110.5
94.5
94.1
80.6
121.3
145.1
148.2
86.2
90.1
70.4
70.2
57.7
95.7
114.6
113.4
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
54.6
48.7
61.9
75.8
36.7
42.7
44.7
47.9
50.9
48.1
50.9
56.4
45.9
48.8
55.0
53.3
50.8
50.7
55.2
62.4
54.7
55.7
54.4
56.9
57.7
58.3
57.5
57.5
56.8
55.8
55.7
56.4
56.3
57.4
57.8
59.1
59.9
63.5
64.9
64.7
63.9
63.6
62.8
62.5
64.5
66.7
Annual rates
1985:
341.0
334.3
333.7
341.9
339.9
343.8
344.2
343.2
346.1
346.1
345.1
354.0
357.3
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov '
Dec r.
1986: Jan"
283.7
276.5
274.6
282.0
276.4
278.9
279.5
279.4
282.5
283.3
282.5
289.5
290.6
155.3
146.0
146.2
146.5
142.3
147.2
148.7
146.9
148.9
151.1
149.7
150.6
152.8
Annual rates
113.0
110.3
110.8
112.6
112.0
112.2
112.8
113.4
113.8
115.8
115.3
116.5
119.3
1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2
F. W. Dodge aeries.
977
1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,064
114.0
121.0
108.0
112.0
111.0
" 138.0
r
150.0
161.0
73.7
74.7
74.0
78.5
76.5
73.5
73.3
75.0
76.8
76.4
77.2
82.5
81.5
r
974
990
1,049
1,104
1,008
836
,103
,097
,118
,104
,111
951
!53
!52
r
!67
r
!63
r
!61
r
!54
r
!64
r
!64
r
!67
r
!68
162
162
139
r
848
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private housing units
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
Units started, by type of structurf
Total
1 unit
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
T
1,736.4
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
r
1,071.9
2-4 units
5 or more units
125.0
122.0
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
r
571.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
r
93.4
New prrv ate homes
Units
authorized
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,740.8
Units
completed
Homes sold
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,700.0
817
709
545
436
412
623
639
686
1,719
1,794
1,685
1,641
1,627
1,789
1,725
1,721
1,793
1,529
1,702
1,712
634
676
699
649
682
710
748
708
681
634
709
721
Vacancy rate
Homes for
sale at end of
period 1
3
414
398
336
272
251
300
356
354
housing units
(percent) 2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates
1985:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan"
1
r
1,804
' 1,632
r
1,849
r
1,851
r
1,684
r
1,693
r
1,673
r
1,737
r
1,653
T
1,784
' 1,654
r
1,804
2,088
' 1,039
r
l,lll
r
1,147
' 1,129
r
1,041
T
1,036
r
1,068
' 1,071
r
1,006
r
l,118
r
1,006
r
1,087
1,353
r
!05
r
96
r
!03
r
!06
r
!05
r
95
r
86
r
97
r
85
r
80
r
76
r
86
112
r
660
425
599
r
616
r
538
r
562
r
519
r
569
r
562
r
586
r
572
r
631
623
r
r
Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.
2
1,635
1,624
1,741
1,704
1,778
1,712
1,694
1,784
1,808
1,688
1,661
1,873
1,907
356
360
357
356
356
354
351
348
350
354
355
354
6.3
6.2
6.8
6.7
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted housing starts revised beginning 1983. Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.7 percent in December and inventories rose $0.7 billion. According to
advance data, retail sales rose 0.1 percent in January following a rise of 1.7 percent in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
650
600
200
190 p—
I
550
500
1
450
r-
r
1
rv
--1
—
1
1
MANUF/ICTURING A -4D
TRADE INVENTORYS
--T"
\
S
350
1*1^NUFACTUR NG
M•4D TRADE SA LES
!—'*-^<
—
170 —
160
150 —
^x
—-
J—^"x—
—
^^
_
^/"-' **'
_
110
*-*•-•*"
V
100
300
. —
X^
-»X f RETAIL INVENTORIES—
140
130
.
/'
400
—
*~~*
90
1" RETAIL SALES
Krf***^*"
9
250
-
—
70 Illlillllll Illlillllll llll|[||lll
Mlllllllll "lllll'lll
RATIO*
200
1.80
_ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
1.60
RETAIL
150
imili||||
. 1982
Illlillllll Illlillllll Illlillllll Illlillllll
1983
1985
1984
Illlillllll
1986
1983
1982
1984
1985
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufact jring
and
tra< e 1
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Sales
2
Inventory-sales ratio 4
Re tail
Whol esale
Sales
Inventories3
1986
InventoTotal
2
Durable
goods
stores
Inventories
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
3
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
Retail
trade '
Millions of dollars, seasonally idjusted
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985".
1984: Dec
1985: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov r
Dec"
260,810
298,344
328,074
356,927
344,656
368,747
411,733
r
425,339
421,613
417,350
418,667
420,776
426,472
428,275
418,378
422,483
430,417
428,998
426,033
431,965
'435,004
399,561
451,354
493,958
527,739
509,213
520,281
573,434
583,506
573,434
575,802
578,940
578,768
580,201
577,781
579,665
580,116
578,182
578,918
582,173
582,763
583,506
1986: Jan"
1
2
3
See page 21 tor manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
20
66,674
79,481
93,721
102,021
96,290
100,448
114,071
115,423
114,913
114,654
114,310
114,619
117,612
118,753
110,777
114,273
116,847
115,231
113,944
116,425
118,616
86,442
99,348
113,623
118,438
118,290
120,476
132,208
135,970
132,208
132,247
133,631
133,865
133,968
134,014
135,479
135,841
135,500
134,967
135,531
135,115
135,970
67,231
74,926
79,963
86,777
89,339
97,858
108,085
r
l 14,822
110,519
110,972
112,096
111,854
115,351
114,884
113,730
114,417
116,977
119,538
114,860
115,409
r
l!7,405
23,368
25,529
24,914
27,089
28,059
33,041
38,691
r
42,610
40,295
40,622
41,073
40,765
42,932
42,789
42,064
42,341
44,277
46,592
41,923
42,187
r
43,727
43,863
49,397
55,049
59,688
61,279
64,817
69,394
r
72,212
70,224
70,350
71,023
71,089
72,419
72,095
71,666
72,076
72,700
72,946
72,937
73,222
r
73,678
117,501
44,000
73,501
102,610
110,906
116,054
126,656
126,014
139,123
155,517
165,617
155,517
157,770
159,163
158,732
160,184
158,867
158,508
159,239
157,994
159,921
164,198
165,655
165,617
50,136
54,108
55,117
60,327
58,952
66,845
74,582
81,494
74,582
76,393
76,838
77,401
78,312
77,001
77,344
76,894
75,823
76,770
79,990
81,735
81,494
52,474
56,798
60,937
66,329
67,062
72,278
80,935
84,123
80,935
81,377
82,325
81,331
81,872
81,866
81,164
82,345
82,171
83,151
84,208
83,920
84,123
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.44
1.51
1.38
1.34
1.36
1.36
1.38
1.38
1.38
1.36
1.35
1.39
1.37
1.34
1.35
1.37
1.35
1.34
1.43
1.44
1.42
1.40
1.40
1.34
1.37
1.39
1.41
1.42
1.42
1.42
1.39
1.38
1.39
1.39
1.35
1.34
1.43
1.44
1.41
* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthiv sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sates for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In December, manufacturers' shipments fell, inventories were unchanged, and new and unfilled orders rose. In
January, according to advance data, durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
360 —-INVENT DRIES
320
280
—
"~^r240 —
SHIPME NTS
^x"r
^x—
160
r""1
'"""
TOTAL
DURA BLE GOODS
120
1
gassc-*"
80
TOTAL
200
.-••"* .„})
_^£
—r~
1
—,
160
—__._„-
\
NONDl RABLE GOO 3S
""
-•~"7—
i
j.
DlJRABLE GOC DS
120
60
h — ~J"~
iiinllllll
40
80
NONDURABLE GOODS
Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
60
BILLK>NS OF DOL .ARS* (RATIC) SCALE)
240
200 •— NEWO RDERS
1
160
r*~y~np=
'.•-.'
40
-I
HlllllMI! ||l||l||||| lllll!l!ll| Illllllllll
|l|llllllll
RATI o*
TOTAL
2.2
INVENTC JRY-SHIPME NTS RATIC)
DURA 3LE GOODS -
120
2.0
•'"VN^-^J^ ^dx-"*—'
/1
—'•-•w/ -*^NO
NDURABLE C
80
1.8
C^
OODS
^
1.6
'-v
"X^X.
60
1.4 -
40 Illllllllll Illllllllll
1982
HUllUM! IllllillllL Illllllllll
1983
1984
1.2 Illllllllll
1986
1985
-^^-^.r*~—
"^-^v-
1982
1983
1985
1984
SEASONALLY ADJ STED
NT OF COMMERC
s OURCE: DEPARTM
V anufacturers new orders i
Manufa turers' inven tones 2
Durabl< goods
Durable
goods
1986
COUNCIL OF ECC3NOMIC ADVISERS
Manufa cturers' shipinents l
Period
—
Illllllllll Illllllllll iiiiiiiiin miilmii
Nondurable goods
Durable
goods
Capital
Nondurable goods
Total
industries,
Nondurable goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3
Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio *
defense
Hillions of do lars, seasoirally adjust 3d
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983r
1984:
Dec
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r
1986: Jan"
1
2
3
126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,027
170,441
189,578
195,094
67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,693
84,951
98,502
103,649
59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,491
91,076
91,445
210,509
241,100
264,281
282,645
264,909
260,682
285,709
281,919
137,891
160,533
174,620
186,347
175,103
171,629
191,109
189,199
72,618
80,567
89,661
96,298
89,806
89,053
94,600
92,720
131,546
147,403
156,161
167,752
157,255
173,259
191,634
195,817
72,339
79,451
79,360
83,553
74,996
87,631
100,611
104,327
19,458
23,231
23,259
24,050
20,681
22,764
27,017
27,216
59,207
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,260
85,627
91,024
91,491
259,770
302,145
323,393
319,094
296,918
330,924
355,640
364,102
1.57
1.57
196,181
103,939
92,242
285,709
191,109
94,600
193,671
101,307
26,893
92,364
355,640
1.46
191,724
192,261
194,303
193,509
194,638
193,871
193,793
196,593
194,229
197,229
200,131
198,983
101,966
101,724
102,116
102,068
102,718
102,657
102,478
105,311
103,656
106,479
107,007
105,766
89,758
90,537
92,187
91,441
91,920
91,214
91,315
91,282
90,573
90,750
93,124
93,217
285,785
286,146
286,171
286,049
284,900
285,678
285,036
284,688
284,030
282,444
281,993
281,919
192,153
192,030
192,355
192,475
191,546
192,239
192,163
192,037
191,930
190,508
190,284
189,199
93,632
94,116
93,816
93,574
93,354
93,439
92,873
92,651
92,100
91,936
91,709
92,720
195,210
193,057
191,532
191,081
195,019
198,261
195,793
198,782
197,332
195,381
196,865
201,405
105,447
102,467
99,544
99,839
102,971
106,780
104,370
107,661
106,641
104,495
103,796
107,813
23,633
29,493
27,206
25,461
25,594
27,984
26,685
27,554
29,240
27,092
25,788
30,575
89,763
90,590
91,988
91,242
92,048
91,481
91,423
91,121
90,691
90,886
93,069
93,592
359,125
359,926
357,151
354,731
355,112
359,502
361,502
363,691
366,794
364,946
361,680
364,102
1.49
1.49
1.47
1.48
1.46
1.47
1.47
1.45
1.46
1.43
1.41
1.42
'08,209
24,548
104,908
Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, and of period.
End of period.
1.66
1.64
1.73
1.52
1.45
1.46
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In January, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods fell 0.4 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 1.0 percent. Prices of capital
equipment fell 0.1 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
340
INDEX, 1967 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
340
s EASONALLY ADJUSTS D
FINISHED GOODS
c ONSUMER
GO ODS
E XCLUDING FO ODS
300
^.•x*1r^
TOTAL FINISHE D
GOODS _..
/*
f'fZ**^*1
'-T"^a
300
s*v*Cz£%,
a^—>«/
-.
•N.*^»*^
\^'
oon
,,
^^
!-'*•»—' C""
/S^~^r
CONSUMER FOODS
VS\
.
*
^
.—'
SJ&
"CAPITAL EQC IPMENT
/S^ **'
/
/"
*»vx
200
180
S
S^r
,
\
,--^
^^s
oon
r /
/
200
jimlT 1 1 1 1 1 1 III lllll II llll 1 lllll 1 n 1 1 iln in
1978
1979
llllll 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 ill 1 1 1 1 1 III 1 l l l l 1 1
1982
1981
1980
inn liiiii
1 lll|lllll 1
1985
1986
1984
1983
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OFIABOR
180
COUNCIL OF E CONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Fin shed goods
Period
Pinished go >ds excluding consumer too is
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Nondurable
Capital
equipment
Total
finished
consumer
goods
Consumer gt ods
Total
Total
Durable
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2
291.1
293.8
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
261.8
273.3
271.2
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.8
294.8
299.1
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.4
294.1
297.4
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1
236.8
241.5
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
333.6
335.3
337.3
339.4
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.2
294.0
300.5
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.6
290.3
291.9
1985: Jan r
Feb r
Mar r
Apr r
May r
June r
Julyr
Aug r
Sepf
Ocf.
Novr.
Dec r
291.9
291.9
292.0
293.5
294.2
293.6
294.3
293.4
291.6
294.6
296.7
298.3
273.7
273.6
272.4
270.8
268.6
268.4
270.9
269.0
266.4
271.3
273.9
275.9
295.7
295.6
296.3
298.9
300.6
299.7
299.8
299.3
297.8
300.1
302.0
303.4
294.1
293.4
294.0
297.5
299.7
298.4
298.4
297.5
296.1
297.9
300.4
302.3
239.0
239.9
240.4
240.9
241.4
242.1
242.1
242.3
239.3
243.0
243.8
243.7
335.6
333.4
334.1
340.1
343.8
340.7
340.7
339.0
338.9
339.2
343.0
346.5
296.8
298.6
299.3
299.6
300.0
300.4
300.7
301.3
299.6
302.9
303.4
303.6
290.5
290.0
289.9
291.9
292.6
291.6
292.5
291.2
289.4
292.3
294.8
296.7
1986: Jan
296.3
274.8
301.2
299.2
242.4
342.0
303.3
294.3
1
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1981.
22
Intern ediate ma terials
Cnide mater als
Foods
and
feeds 1
Other
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Other
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.9
253.1
232.7
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.1
325.0
325.0
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
330.8
306.2
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
252.2
259.5
235.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.4
484.5
459.7
241.3
240.5
238.4
235.4
231.5
230.7
229.7
226.5
224.9
229.4
231.8
232.9
326.2
324.8
324.5
325.4
326.5
325.0
324.3
324.1
323.9
324.2
325.0
326.1
320.8
298.3
302.3
308.9
307.4
252.9
248.0
241.4
235.1
231.6
230.6
229.5
221.6
225.4
230.9
240.9
239.7
467.3
460.3
461.0
462.9
464.9
461.2
461.1
456.1
454.9
456.0
455.7
453.7
232.6
324.6
303.2
233.5
453.4
Total
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3
320.0
318.7
320.4
319.0
318.6
319.3
320.0
318.5
317.8
317.4
317.2
317.7
318.6
319.7
318.3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
315.2
311.0
307.3
305.6
303.8
303.0
296.1
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted and not
seasonally adjusted. The index was 3.9 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
240
240
220
220
200
200
180
180
1986
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BEIOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Hou sing
Tr ansportation
She Her
Period
All
items 1
Food
Total '
Total
Renters'
1982 = 100)
NSA
Rel. imp.3
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Jan r
Feb r
Mar r.....
Apr r
May r....
June ' ...
July r....
Aug r....
Sept r....
Oct r
100.0
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
316.1
317.4
318.8
320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
T
Nov .... 326.6
r
Dec ..... 327.4
328.4
1986: Jan
1
Homeowners'
costs (Dec.
Apparupkeep
Total J
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Energy 2
6.5
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
357.3
379.5
403.1
390.7
392.3
395.4
397.5
399.8
402.6
404.3
406.6
409.0
410.9
413.0
415.7
417.5
11.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
419.3
423.6
426.5
420.5
416.8
423.2
428.0
429.7
430.3
429.4
427.6
426.8
425.8
428.4
430.3
430.8
All items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter
1982 = 100)
NSA
18.5
211.4
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
291.7
302.9
309.8
307.7
308.2
308.6
308.7
308.4
309.1
309.2
309.6
310.7
311.1
313.2
315.2
315.9
37.9
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
323.1
336.5
349.9
342.3
344.0
345.3
346.5
348.4
349.4
350.3
351.7
352.2
353.3
355.2
356.2
357.1
33.3
210.4
239.7
281.7
314.7
337.0
344.8
361.7
382.0
370.6
373.3
374.7
376.4
379.7
381.1
383.1
385.3
386.1
387.9
390.5
391.9
393.3
7.3
103.0
108.6
115.4
111.8
112.6
113.2
113.7
114.7
115.3
115.8
•
116.3
116.7
117.5
118.2
118.5
118.8
14.4
0.5
8.1
5.0
21.4
3.4
102.5
107.3
113.1
109.9
110.7
111.0
111.5
112.6
112.9
113.6
114.3
114.5
114.9
115.7
116.2
116.6
233.0
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
346.3
359.2
368.9
366.0
366.8
370.0
368.0
366.2
367.6
367.8
370.6
368.7
368.5
372.7
373.7
379.1
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
370.3
387.3
393.6
389.8
388.8
391.2
3S2.8
392.8
394.7
394.2
393.6
394.4
393.7
395.4
396.5
397.2
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
196.5
200.2
206.0
202.3
204.2
205.1
205.4
205.3
205.9
205.6
205.9
206.8
207.7
208.4
208.3
207.7
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
298.4
311.7
319.9
316.2
316.0
319.0
320.9
320.2
320.2
320.3
319.8
319.3
320.5
322.6
323.9
325.5
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
197.6
202.6
208.5
215.2
211.9
213.0
213.7
214.1
214.5
215.0
215.2
215.7
216.2
217.0
217.7
218.4
218.6
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc. also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1985.
Mainte- Fuel
and
nance
other
and
repairs utilities
5.5
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
389.4
376.4
370.7
373.8
364.1
358.2
367.9
374.3
377.7
378.8
379.1
377.4
375.2
374.3
377.4
379.4
380.1
48.0
179.1
191.5
208.3
228.1
245.6
258.4
271.2
281.6
277.2
278.5
279.6
280.3
280.2
280.9
281.4
282.1
282.6
284.1
285.4
286.2
287.5
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1981.
Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and
therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Period
Ch nge from pr eceding peri d
Change from 3 mont] s earlier, ann nal rate
Change from 6 mont s earlier, ann ual rate
Consum jr goods
Consum zr goods
Consum er goods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
Foods
Total
finished
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
goods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Change
from
vear
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Cha nge, Dec. o Dec., N 5A
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
2.3
3.5
.3
9.2
12.8
11.8
7.1
3.7
.6
1.7
1.8
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983".
8.5
17.5
14.2
8.5
4.2
-.8
.8
2.1
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2
3.9
1.9
1.8
2.7
7.8
11.1
13.5
9.2
4.0
1.6
2.1
.9
Ct ange, mon th to mont h
1985: Jan'
Feb'
Mar'
Apr'
May'.
June1".
July'
Aug '
Sept '.
Get'.
Nov r
Dec'
-0.1
0
.0
.5
.2
.2
.2
-.3
-.6
1.0
.7
.5
-0.4
-.0
7
.4
1986 Jan
— .4
-.6
-.8
-.1
.9
7
-1.0
1.8
1.0
.7
— .1
0
-.3
-3.3
0
.3
-.5
.6
.8
.6
0.4
.6
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
.6
1.1
.2
.1
2.2
3.2
2.2
1.1
-1.1
-2.7
.4
4.6
9.5
1.0
-.1
2.3
-0.2
-.2
.2
1.2
.7
A
1.1
0
-4.2
-7.1
-5.7
.1
.6
-2.9
.6
7.5
15.0
-.8
4.7
8.9
6.1
1.2
-2.9
-3.0
-.7
4.0
8.6
2.5
3.7
5.1
3,8
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.7
-1.1
3.0
2.8
5.4
0.1
.4
.5
1.7
1.6
1.0
1.7
1.0
-.3
.8
1.7
3.2
5.3
1.8
.5
1.4
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted dais revised beginning 1
1.0
-1.4
— .5
-1.2
-2.1
-3.8
-4.5
-2.0
-3.3
-4.4
.4
4.0
5.7
.5
2.8
3.6
2.6
2.9
2.8
1.4
.3
.5
2.6
1.6
2.5
2.4
3.1
2.8
3.3
2.6
1.8
.2
2.2
2.3
2.1
.9
.7
.2
.7
1.0
1.1
.9
.8
.1
1.1
1.5
1.8
2.9
.5
1.7
1.4
-0.8
-0.2
J
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Tnmsportati on
Housing
Adden dum: All iteins, percent hange
(annua rate)
All
Shelter
All
items *
Period
Fuel
Food
Total1
and
Total '
Homeowners'
costs
Rent-
ers'
costs
other
utilities
Apparel
and
upkeep
MediTotal '
New
cars
Motor
fuel
cal
care
Energy2
items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter
From
previ-
ous
From
From
3
6
months
earlier
months
earlier
From
year
earner
NSA
c liange, I ecember to Decf >mber, NSA
9.0
13.3
12.4
8.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.8
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
11.8
10.2
10.2
4.3
3.1
2.6
3.8
2.7
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2
3.6
3.5
4.2
4.3
11.5
17.4
15.1
9.9
2.4
4.7
5.2
6.0
5.1
5.9
6.3
4.5
5.1
5.9
5.9
16.0
13.6
14.5
9.7
1.8
4.2
1.9
Ch! nge,
1985:
r
Jan
Feb'.
Mar'.
Apr'
May r
June1"....
July'
Aug r
Sept'.....
Oct r
Nov'
Dec'.
1986: Jan
.6
.4
0.2
.5
.4
.3
.5
.3
.3
.4
.1
.3
.5
.3
0.2
.7
.4
.5
.9
.4
.5
.6
.2
.5
.7
.4
0.4
.7
.5
.4
.9
.5
.4
.4
.3
.7
.6
.3
0.2
.7
.3
.5
1.0
.3
.6
.6
.2
.3
.7
.4
0.2
-.3
.6
.4
0
.5
-.1
-.2
.2
-.2
.4
.3
.3
.2
.3
.4
.3
.3
.2
.4
1
6.2
7.4
7.5
6.8
1.6
3.4
2.4
3.5
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0
6.4
6.1
6.7
8.0
6.5
52.2
18.9
9.4
-6.5
-1.7
-2.4
3.0
37.4
18.1
11.9
1.3
-.5
.2
1.8
7.2
9.9
9.4
6.1
5.0
4.4
3.7
0.3
.4
.8
.5
.6
.7
.4
.6
.6
.5
.5
.7
-0.5
-.9
1.5
1.1
.4
.1
-.2
-.4
-.2
-.2
.6
.4
.4
.1
8.5
.1
.4
.4
.3
-.0
0.2
—.1
.9
.6
-.2
0
.0
-.2
-.2
.4
.7
.4
0.4
.5
.3
.2
.2
.2
.1
.2
.2
.3
.3
-1.2
1.6
2.7
1.7
.9
.3
.1
-.4
-.6
-.2
.8
.5
-.3
.5
.1
.2
0.1
.9
.4
.1
.0
.3
1
Includes items not shown separately.
a
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., also included through 1982.
3
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
24
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0
1.7
3.9
3.1
2.6
7.7
11.3
13.5
10.4
6.1
3.2
4.3
3.6
me nth to nlonth
0.2
.2
.1
.0
-.1
.2
.0
.1
.4
.1
.7
.6
0.2
.3
.5
.3
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.9
.4
0.4
.5
.4
.3
-.0
.2
.2
.2
.2 .
.5
.5
.3
.5
3.2
4.0
2.6
4.3
3.3
2.6
2.6
2.4
3.1
4.5
5.3
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.9
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.8
5.1
4.1
3.9
2.6
3.1
4.0
4.6
4.2
3.5
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1981.
Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 2.4 percent in February, while prices paid by farmers were unchanged.
INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
PRICES PAID
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
mi
nmliim i
60
niiiliiin
mi
60
RATION
1986
I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
[1977 = 100]
P rices paid by farmer s
Pri ^es received by farm ers
Period
Livestock and
products
All farm
products
Production
items
Ratio 2
141
146
136
109
125
139
151
155
159
161
157
108
125
138
148
150
153
155
151
106
107
97
93
85
84
86
79
124
128
128
126
123
123
115
112
111
116
118
145
141
136
134
134
130
128
128
134
138
137
164
164
164
164
164
163
162
162
162
162
162
159
159
159
159
158
156
156
155
154
155
155
154
153
153
152
151
150
149
148
148
149
149
82
82
80
79
78
78
75
75
76
78
79
113
109
135
132
163
163
156
155
150
149
76
74
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
105
116
125
134
121
128
139
121
124
147
144
143
145
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
135
134
132
130
128
127
122
121
123
127
128
1986: Jan T
Feb
124
121
1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
123
138
150
157
160
164
163
115
132
134
139
133
135
142
129
1978
1979
All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates l
108
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in Ml and M2 slowed in January while growth in M3 was little changed. (Since revised data for earlier
months are not available, chart shows old series through September 1984 and revised series beginning October
1984.)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400
3,200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,200
400
400
300
300
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
• AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Ml
M3
L
M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances
MS plus
other liquid
assets
M2
Debt
Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2
Ml plus overnight
Period
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec '
Decr
Jan T
Feb r
Mar '
Apr
May r .
June r
July r .
Aug T
Sepf
Ocf
Nov r
Dec '
1986: Jan"
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)
558.5
626.5
562.9
569.3
572.2
575.7
582.5
590.9
596.2
604.8
611.5
614.1
620.0
626.5
627.0
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits
2,373.7
2,563.9
2,399.8
2,421.8
2,429.4
2,434.4
2,452.0
2,479.0
2,496.0
2,515.2
2,529.2
2,537.9
2,549.7
2,563.9
2,566.1
1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt ot" the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinaneial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
26
2,986.6
3,191.2
3,013.4
3,033.7
3,046.6
3,052.1
3,070.2
3,098.5
3,113.6
3,132.2
3,152.5
3,163.8
3,175.7
3,191.2
3,211.2
3,557.6
3,588.8
3,612.7
3,618.6
3,636.8
3,665.2
3,683.9
3,712.8
3,742.7
3,760.4
3,794.5
Debt of
domestic
nonfinaneial
sectors
(monthly
average) 1
3,157.0
3,543.5
3,881.8
4,255.8
4,649.8
5,177.2
5,927.0
6,741.3
5,992.6
6,048.2
6,103.8
6,165.4
6,228.6
6,290.8
6,356.0
6,419.6
6,479.1
6,542.8
6,628.5
6,741.3
Ml
M2
M3
Debt
13.4
12.2
9.5
9.6
9.3
12.2
8.0
6.9
9.7
9.8
9.0
9.1
8.2
7.9
8.4
8.7
8.1
7.0
5.7
8.8
7.9
7.6
6.8
6.6
7.1
7.5
7.0
6.1
6.4
10.5
11.9
12.2
12.9
14.2
13.8
13.3
12.4
10.6
11.3
14.5
13.7
14.8
14.3
14.2
14.0
13.3
12.7
12.5
12.7
12.7
12.6
13.3
14.8
NOTE.—Money stock series were revised in February 1986 to incorporate annual benchmark and
;a8onal adjustment revisions. Data are not yet available prior to October 1984.
See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Period
Demand
deposits
Currency
Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)
Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
NSA
Money market
mutuaIfund
bala ices
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
NSA
Institution
only
NSA
Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)
Savings
deposits
Small
denomination
time
deposits '
Large
denomination
time
deposits '
NSA
Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)
Term
Eurodollars
(net)
NSA
NSA
av
S sw-
ings
bonds
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
BankPnm
Comers'
accept- mercial
paper
ances
1985:
Jan r
Feb r
Mar r
Aprr
May r
June r
July r
Aug r
Sepfr
Oct
Nov r
Dec r
1986:
Jan"
159.6
160.7
161.3
161.9
163.2
164.4
165.3
166.9
167.7
168.7
169.8
170.6
171.9
175.1
177.6
176.2
172.2
175.4
175.8
176.8
176.7
177.0
176.5
175.8
65.0
62.2
59.5
59.6
63.5
67.1
65.0
63.6
62.3
63.3
64.5
64.5
435.7
450.5
460.2
462.5
466.4
478.1
487.2
495.2
499.8
504.2
509.6
512.1
289.4
887.4
173.6
176.6
178.5
60.3
64.5
63.3
57.8
61.3
60.8
60.7
63.5
63.8
64.1
65.0
68.3
289.9
289.7
289.0
290.8
293.6
296.7
299.7
300.3
302.3
303.7
303.6
885.2
885.0
887.6
889.5
890.3
888.0
880.9
878.3
875.7
876.0
880.3
415.6
416.9
421.0
425.9
425.0
422.7
418.3
422.1
427.4
430.2
432.9
436.4
58.9
58.5
58.6
59.7
57.5
56.9
55.4
56.8
58.0
57.7
58.8
59.2
81.1
81.3
84.7
81.0
81.8
79.9
79.4
80.2
80.0
78.9
79.0
76.3
180.4
67.2
176.9
66.7
515.8
304.0
884.6
447.9
60.7
74.9
249.0
251.2
251.4
251.8
255.4
259.0
260.4
263.1
266.4
266.0
267.8
271.5
149.0
152.2
154.1
156.5
158.4
161.8
164.8
169.0
171.5
171.9 268.8
1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
74.5
74.9
75.3
75.7
76.1
76.5
76.7
77.2
78.0
78.5
79.0
266.7
270.4
274.8
276.0
277.4
282.6
280.3
279.2
283.2
282.6
299.8
43.3
45.0
46.3
45.9
44.5
42.8
42.2
42.2
42.5
43.9
43.1
159.6
164.8
169.8
168.9
168.6
164.7
171.1
182.0
186.6
191.7
196.8
Travelers cheeks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
NOTE.—Money stock series revised; see note p. 26.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in in stallment ere dit outstandir g 1
Ins talhnent credit outstanding (end of perio d)
Period
Mobile
home
Automobile
Revolving
16,617
15,368
47,731
76,366
7,662
5,142
17,559
29,964
5,409
4,710
11,434
188,629
89,000
162,957
165,991
168,322
170,760
173,395
175,813
178,515
180,900
183,085
185,485
186,545
188,629
7,223
9,041
8,342
8,270
9,042
5,227
6,247
5,726
11,531
8,417
4,792
5,142
Other
Automobile
Revolving
112,134
328,275
376,006
452,372
119,796
124,938
142,497
172,461
54,900
60,309
65,019
76,453
94,940
18,783
19,890
22,491
23,773
24,552
110,473
112,912
115,827
133,283
160,419
1985: Dec
541,372
209,984
116,283
26,476
1985: Jan
459,595
468,636
476,978
485,248
494,290
499,517
505,764
511,490
523,021
531,438
536,230
541,372
175,348
178,546
181,937
185,425
189,217
191,903
194,268
196,474
203,678
207,472
208,588
209,984
96,897
99,424
102,055
104,181
106,610
106,537
107,393
108,329
110,303
112,345
114,960
116,283
24,393
24,675
24,664
24,882
25,068
25,264
25,588
25,787
25,955
26,136
26,137
26,476
Total
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
296,290
312,907
1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding
month.
Total
Mobile
home
Other
18,487
1,107
2,601
1,282
779
27,136
37,523
21,343
1,924
28,210
2,887
3,198
3,391
3,488
3,792
2,686
2,365
2,206
7,204
3,794
1,116
1,396
1,957
2,527
2,631
2,126
2,429
73
856
936
1,974
2,042
2,615
1,323
159
282
-11
218
186
196
324
199
168
181
1
339
2,439
2,915
17,456
2,538
3,034
2,331
2,438
2,635
2,418
2,702
2,385
2,185
2,400
1,060
2,084
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans were unchanged in January.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,000
1,800 — ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
-LOANS AND LEASES
800
800
600
600
400
400
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
200
200
160
160
OTHER SECURITIES
120
120
80
80
Illl
60
1979
1978
1980
1982
1981
60
1984
1983
1985
• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Al
commercial ban :s l
Loans and
Period
R eserves
and
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan"
1,013.8
1,135.4
1,239.7
1,307.4
1,400.5
1,553.0
1,716.8
1,895.5
1,726.3
1,744.8
1,761.6
1,768.8
1,788.5
1,802.7
1,819.0
1,828.8
1,841.3
1,844.4
1,869.6
1,895.5
1,919.6
Total 2
746.9
849.1
914.5
967.4
1,032.8
1,122.7
,316.5
,450.3
,323.4
,337.7
,355.6
1,367.1
1,380.0
1,391.0
,402.1
,409.2
,416.9
,419.7
,433.9
1,450.3
1,465.5
Commercial
and industrial
loans
246.1
291.1
326.9
355.1
391.5
412.8
469.0
493.9
469.2
474.2
481.2
481.9
484.3
484.3
484.1
485.7
487.2
487.0
490.6
493.9
494.1
U.S.
Government
securities
137.6
144.4
170.9
179.6
202.7
260.8
260.3
270.7
260.3
266.0
267.1
261.4
266.3
267.1
271.6
271.4
273.1
270.0
275.0
270.7
264.6
3
Bom>wings
(millions of dollars,
unad us ted)
securities
Total
1
Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages
of month-end
data for foreign-related institutions.
2
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
3
Data are averages of daily figures.
28
adjustisA
for changes ua
res erve requirem ents
leases
Total loans
securities
Depo itory institutio n s
129.2
141.9
154.4
160.4
165.0
169.6
140.0
174.5
142.6
141.1
138.9
140.2
142.2
144.5
145.4
148.2
151.3
154.8
160.7
174.5
189.6
27.91
29.20
31.04
32.10
34.28
36.14
39.08
45.19
39.64
40.43
40.47
40.71
41.32
42.18
42.61
43.19
43.51
43.65
44.38
45.19
45.37
borrowed
27.04
27.73
29.35
31.46
33.65
35.36
35.90
43.87
38.24
39.14
38.88
39.39
39.99
40.97
41.50
42.12
42.22
42.46
42.64
43.87
44.60
Required
27.67
28.76
30.52
31.78
33.78
35.58
38.23
44.13
38.89
39.53
39.71
39.97
40.52
41.27
41.75
42.37
42.84
42.90
43.45
44.13
44.25
Total
868
1,473
1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
1,395
1,289
1,593
1,323
1,334
1,205
1,107
1,073
1,289
1,187
1,741
1,318
770
Seasonal
135
81
116
54
33
96
113
56
62
71
88
135
165
151
167
221
203
172
107
56
36
NOTE.—Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable witb data for earlier periods,
largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions ("•«
included in loans rather than in other securities.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses
Sources
External
Period
Or edit market hinds
Total
Internal *
Total
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1984:
I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
Securities
and
mortgages
Loans and
short-term
paper
Other 2
317.5
345.2
337.6
371.6
312.8
416.9
487.4
175.7
188.8
189.5
230.4
234.3
280.5
334.8
141.8
156.4
148.1
141.3
78.5
136.4
152.6
80.5
88.2
93.3
92.0
83.3
82.9
104.7
32.8
20.9
52.4
21.8
43.9
56.7
-15.9
47.7
67.3
40.9
70.2
39.4
26.2
120.6
61.3
68.2
54.8
49.3
511.1
490.6
442.8
505.1
319.6
331.7
340.7
347.1
191.5
159.0
102.1
158.0
106.2
78.0
76.2
158.6
-33.2
-66.6
-5.6
42.0
139.4
144.6
81.8
116.5
85.3
80.9
25.9
419.9
428.7
412.3
351.5
357.9
379.5
68.4
70.8
32.8
59.7
55.0
23.5
16.5
22.5
76.2
32.5
18.9
4.6
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
, ,
„
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment m the U.S.
4.9
53.5
47.9
-.6
8.7
15.8
9.3
Total
Capital
expenditures 3
Increase in
financial
assets
293.7
343.7
317.7
334.6
253.8
369.6
444.0
201.7
219.5
221.2
271.2
229.6
256.3
367.8
92.0
124.3
96.5
63.4
24.2
113.3
76.2
480.6
449.9
395.7
449.9
355.6
364.1
387.9
363.8
125.0
85.9
399.7
392.3
368.8
371.5
363.5
359.0
28.2
28.8
7.8
86.1
9.8
Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)
23.8
1.4
20.0
37.0
58.9
47.3
43.4
30.4
40.7
47.1
55.3
20.1
36.4
43.5
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Current liabilitie s
Curren assets
End of period
Total
Cash
Governsecurities
Notes and
accounts
receivable
Invento-
Other
current
assets
Total
Notes and
accounts
payable
Other
current
liabilities
Net
working
capital
ratio *
QFE-FRB series: 2
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983: HI
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985:
I
H"
1,043.7
1,214.8
1,327.0
1,418.4
1,432.7
1,557.3
1,682.0
1,522.8
1,557.3
1,599.6
1,630.1
1,666.1
1,682.0
1,694.7
1,704.0
105.5
118.0
126.9
135.5
147.0
165.8
160.9
150.5
165.8
159.0
154.7
150.0
160.9
153.5
154.6
17.2
16.7
18.7
17.6
22.8
30.6
36.6
27.0
30.6
35.0
36.9
33.2
36.6
35.2
35.1
388.0
459.0
506.8
532.0
519.2
577.8
622.3
565.0
577.8
599.7
431.8
101.1
505.1
116.0
131.8
149.5
165.2
183.7
615.4
629.8
656.9
655.6
664.6
663.7
630.6
622.3
635.2
636.0
1
Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
2
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to
542.8
583.7
578.6
599.3
655.6
597.3
599.3
619.6
206.6
183.0
183.7
186.3
193.4
195.4
206.6
206.2
214.7
669.5
807.3
889.3
970.0
976.8
1,043.0
1,150.7
1,026.6
1,043.0
1,077.0
1,111.9
1,142.2
1,150.7
1,159.5
1,163.9
286.5
346.5
375.7
423.7
433.8
465.3
523.3
467.3
465.3
493.0
506.9
374.3
407.5
437.8
448.4
455.9
518.2
523.9
531.3
615.6
523.3
543.9
625.9
538.1
540.1
383.0
460.8
513.6
546.3
543.0
577.8
627.4
559.3
577.8
584.0
605.1
623.9
627.4
514.3
531.3
496.3
514.3
522.6
518.1
535.2
1.559
1.505
1.492
1.462
1.467
1.493
1.462
1.483
1.493
1.485
1.466
1.459
1.462
1.462
1.464
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Longer-term interest rates fell in February while short-term rates were little changed.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
PERCENT PER ANNUM
[Percent per annum]
U.S. T reasury security yields
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Week ended:
1986: Feb 8
15
22
Mar 1
8
3-month bills
(new issues) 1
Constant nlaturities
3-year
2
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3
30
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months '
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.R.
Bank) 5
12.66
14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.00
10.00- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
12.21
11.92
12.05
12.01
11.75
11.34
11.24
11.17
11.09
11.01
10.94
10.87
9.66
9.79
9.48
9.08
8.78
8.90
9.18
9.37
9.24
8.64
8.51
8.06
7.44
12.13
12.56
12.23
11.72
10.94
10.97
11.05
11.07
11.02
10.55
10.16
10.05
9.67
8.69
9.23
8.47
7.88
7.38
7.57
7.74
7.86
7.79
7.69
7.62
7.62
7.54
8.00-8.00
8.00-8.00
8.00-8.00
8.00-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.81
7.45
7.53
6.98
9.90
9.84
9.64
9.29
7.55
7.60
7.52
7.48
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-
11.46
13.91
8.51
11.23
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
11.57
9.47
10.15
8.18
8.22
8.57
8.00
7.56
7.01
7.05
7.18
7.08
7.17
7.20
7.07
7.04
7.03
10.55
11.05
10.49
9.75
9.05
9.18
9.31
9.37
9.25
8.88
8.40
8.41
8.10
11.51
11.86
11.43
10.85
10.16
10.31
10.33
10.37
10.24
9.78
9.26
9.19
8.70
6.99
7.18
6.97
6.96
6.92
8.21
8.17
8.10
7.91
9.02
8.87
8.62
8.29
11.94
14.17
13.79
New-homej
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6
15.27
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
12.04
12.71
11.37
11.55
14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
Prime rate
charged by
banks 5
13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80
7.69
12.29
14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01
11.506
14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48
1
Bank-discount basis.
2
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(lloody's) 4
11.77
9.509.509.509.509.50-
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
5
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose sharply in February.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50
140
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50
140
130
1978
1979
1986
PERCENT
20
PERCENT
20
EARNiNC3S-PR!CE RATIC> ON COMMO S STOCKS
(S&P)
15
-^^^"
r—-
-"
10
X
"S•^--^
"^
1
! 1
1978
! ! !
1979
15
__/-!
I
I 1
1980
I ) !
1981
1
; |
\
1
i
1983
1982
ff^
""**
\_
1
| |
1984
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION
[
I l
1985
Nevi York Stock Ext hange indexes (f ec. 31, 1965 = 5 J >
Composite
1980
1981
1982
1383
1984
1985
1985:
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Week ended:
1986: Feb 1
8
15
22
Mar 1
1
Average
2
Includes
3
Includes
4
Includes
5
Industrial
Transporta-
68.10
74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09
78.70
85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79
104.73
103.92
104.66
107.00
109.52
111.64
109.09
106.82
107.57
113.93
119.33
120.71
119.64
119.93
121.88
124.11
126.94
124.92
122.35
123.65
130.53
136.77
120.16
126.43
137.13
144.03
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11
101.76
98.30
96.47
99.66
105.79
111.67
109.92
104.96
103.72
108.61
113.52
115.72
124.18
121.05
123.12
125.17
128.07
129.70
137.57
140.16
142.72
145.74
147.86
120.49
121.71
123.22
126.20
126.00
60.61
72.61
Common st ock 5yields
(perce tit)
2
Finance
Utility
Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3
Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)*
Dividendprice ratio
37.35
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
64.25
73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21
891.41
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23
118.78
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
53.44
53.91
55.51
57.32
59.61
59.68
56.99
55.93
55.84
59.07
61.69
109.58
107.59
109.39
115.31
118.47
119.85
114.68
110.21
112.36
122.83
128.86
1,283.23
1,268.83
1,266.36
1,279.40
1,314.00
1,343.17
1,326.18
1,317.95
1,351.58
1,432.88
1,517.02
180.88
179.42
180.82
184.90
188.89
192.54
188.31
184.06
186.18
197.45
207.26
62.46
65.18
132.36
142.13
1,534.86
1,652.73
208.19
219.37
5.26
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
4.30
4.37
4.37
4.31
4.21
4.14
4.23
4.32
4.28
4.06
3.88
3.90
3.72
63.20
63.80
64.40
66.05
66.64
135.25
137.81
140.15
144.86
146.23
1,555.23
1,598.95
1,637.73
1,676.89
1,702.18
209.72
213.55
217.06
222.26
225.17
3.84
3.80
3.75
3.69
3.62
of daily closing prices.
all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
30 stocks.
500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-
1986
COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Co nrnon stock orice s 1
Period
I I !
Earningsprice ratio
12.66
11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02
9.07
8.12
8.03
price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE. — AH data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 4 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $81.6 billion compared with a deficit of $79.5 billion a
year earlier. The deficit is estimated at $202.8 billion for fiscal 1986 and at $143.6 billion for fiscal 1987.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,000
1,000
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^
900
900
800
800
"OUTLAYS^
700
700
600
600
RECEIPTS
500
500
400
400
.SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-f
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
FISCAL YEARS
I/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
[Billions of dollars]
Total
Fiscal year or period
Receipts
Outlays
Off-budget
On-budget
Surplus
or deficit
Receipts
Outlays
Gross Fe leral debt
(end of period)
Surplus
of deficit
Receipts
62.5
66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0
60.4
69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0
2.0
-3.2
— 1.4
-3.9
-4.3
-2.0
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
Outlays
Surplus
or deficit
Total
Held by
the public
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
332.3
371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5
53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
216.6
231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5
-55.3
70.5
-13.3
49.7
-54.9
38.2
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
73.8
-78.9
127.9
-207.8
185.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0
-72.7
-73.9
-120.0
-208.0
185.6
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
— 1.1
5.0
-7.9
.2
.3
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,576.7
715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,312.6
1985
1986 l
1987 1
734.1
777.1
850.4
946.3
979.9
994.0
-212.3
-202.8
-143.6
547.9
579.2
636.1
769.5
795.2
795.4
-221.6
-216.0
159.3
186.2
197.9
214.3
176.8
184.7
198.6
9.4
13.2
15.7
1,827.5
2,112.0
2,320.6
1,509.9
1,714.0
1,855-7
236.6
253.9
316.1
335.6
-79.5
-81.6
179.7
191.8
260.2
279.4
-80.5
-87.7
56.9
62.2
55.8
56.1
1.1
8.1
1,684.4
1,966.8
1,389.4
1,613.0
,
Cumulative total, first 4
months:
Fiscal year 1985
Fiscal year 1986
1
Estimates.
NOTE.—Data from Budget of the United States Goi •nment, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Man-
32
271.9
302.2
agement and Budget, except, cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
396.9
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
According to the budget submitted in early February, total Federal receipts are estimated at $777.1 billion for
fiscal 1986 and at $850.4 billion for fiscal 1987. Outlays are estimated at $979.9 billion for fiscal 1986 and at
$994.0 billion for fiscal 1987.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
400
INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES
— RECEIPTS!/
300
300
SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
200
CORPORATION INCOME TAXES_
100
200
100
0
0
-OUTLAYSV -
700
700
NONDEFENSE
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
NATIONAL DEFENSE
200
200
100
100
1978
1979
1982
1981
1980
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
FISCAL YEARS
V INCLUDES ON-BUOGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
0n-budget a nd off-but *et receip s
Fiscal year
Total
Individual
Corporation
On-bud a;et and of -budget 0 itlays
Nationa 1 defense
Social
insurance
Other
Depart-
Total
InterHealth
Medi-
Total
298.1
355.6
399.6
463.3
217.8
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
517.1
244.1
599.3
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
1985
1986 '
1987 '
734.1
777.1
334.5
353.7
386.0
1
617.8
600.6
666.5
850.4
131.6
157.6
181.0
90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9
34.3
36.6
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
61.3
70.9
86.7
265.2
280.4
302.8
73.0
72.1
74.9
946.3
979.9
994.0
41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7
37.7
40.8
Estimates.
NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
All data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management
and Budget.
Social
securi-
Net
inter-
ty
ty
est
Other
military
butions
1976
1977
1978
1979
Income
securi-
371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5
89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3
18,5
20.5
19.3
22.8
26.5
60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4
73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1
26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1
131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6
16.2
17.1
18.6
33.5
35.7
35.0
65.8
68.7
70.2
128.2
118.1
118.4
188.6
200.1
212.2
129.4
142.7
148.0
131.8
131.7
109.3
6.4
6.4
15.7
17.3
7.5
7.5
209.9
227.4
131.0
153.8
180.7
204.4
220.8
252.7
265.8
282.2
245.4
258.4
274.3
134.0
157.5
185.3
88.1
95.3
102.3
113.7
15.8
Data for first 4 months of fiscal 1985 and fiscal 1986 not yet available on basis comparable with
other data shown here.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1985, Federal receipts rose $35.8 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $28.0 billion,
yielding a deficit of $201.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised data, expenditures rose $36.4
billion; receipts data are incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1977
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1980
1978
1984
1981
1985
CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal (TOvernment expenditur es
Federal Governmeiit receipts
Period
Fiscal year:
1982
1983
1984
1985
Calendar year:
1982
1983
1984
1985 r.
1982: HI
rv
1983:
I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985:
I
n
m
IV '
Total
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax
accruals
Contributions for
social
insurance
Total
Purchases
of goods
and
services
643.3
644.6
710.1
773.1
292.9
304.0
345.2
52.1
54.5
73.6
67.6
50.0
50.2
54.9
56.4
231.1
247.0
277.6
304.0
755.9
833.5
875.6
963.2
264.4
288.2
299.5
342.2
635.3
658.1
725.1
785.1
630.3
633.1
636.3
665.2
659.7
671.1
709.4
721.8
727.1
742.1
789.7
754.9
790.7
304.5
295.0
311.3
350.7
298.1
303.0
297.1
304.2
286.2
292.5
297.8
303.9
315.7
327.8
363.9
321.3
355.4
362.1
49.0
59.3
74.4
67.5
50.1
46.4
46.5
58.2
66.4
66.1
78.9
80.1
69.4
69.2
65.9
65.0
68.9
48.1
51.6
55.8
57.0
47.1
47.6
46.3
52.8
53.7
53.6
54.6
55.8
56.7
56.2
55.5
60.2
55.4
56.9
233.7
252.2
781.2
837.5
898.0
984.2
789.1
835.7
824.2
835.8
839.4
850.6
867.2
884.9
905.2
934.7
952.4
964.0
992.0
1,028.4
272.7
284.8
312.9
310.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
283.6
309.9
235.0
236.1
246.5
250.1
253.4
258.8
278.1
282.0
285.4
288.9
304.4
308.4
311.0
315.9
355.0
275.3
293.2
287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2
285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
334.4
337.8
364.8
382.9
Transfer
payments
Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments
Net
interest
paid
Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enter-
or deficit
LessWage
accruals
less
disbursements
national
income
and
product
accounts
90.7
97.8
13.0
21.2
23.5
21.4
0.0
.4
-.1
.1
-112.6
90.6
109.7
128.7
83.9
86.2
93.6
99.0
83.3
84.5
85.8
85.8
87.1
86.2
91.3
93.0
93.0
97.3
95.7
97.6
100.6
102.0
84.6
94.3
115.5
129.2
87.1
87.2
88.0
91.1
96.8
101.2
107.2
110.4
119.5
124.8
126.4
130.1
127.1
133.1
16.0
23.2
21.1
21.3
14.3
23.4
18.8
19.8
22.5
31.6
32.7
15.1
18.0
18.5
21.9
20.9
15.9
26.6
.0
-.4
.2
-.2
- 145.9
-179.4
-172.9
-199.1
.0
.0
-158.8
-202.6
-187.9
-170.6
-179.7
-179.5
-157.8
-163.0
-178.1
-192.7
-162.6
-209.1
-201.3
312.8
347.4
83.4
85.7
352.2
373.0
324.1
348.5
355.1
379.5
329.1
347.4
344.4
350.8
346.6
352.3
350.5
351.9
356.2
361.9
374.1
376.7
383.5
383.7
82.2
.0
-1.3
— .4
.0
.2
.2
.0
.6
.1
-1.0
.0
.0
-188.9
-165.5
-190.1
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial reduction (1977 = 1 DO; seasonall : adjusted
Period
United
States
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
Japan
France
109.8
108.1
113.7
118.9
120.1
120.6
107
106
103
101
124.7
138.4
102
105
143.0
142.8
140.8
144.5
148.2
145.1
147.8
146.0
144.6
145.7
144.1
101
105
107
104
105
104
108
108
105
107
109
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
123.6
123.7
124.0
124.1
;.
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
124.4
' 125.4
' 126.3
109.0
97.4
102.9
112.0
116.8
r
l!3.9
' 114.0
r
114.2
' 115.0
r
115.0
r
l!6.4
r
l!8.1
' 118.1
' 118.0
r
l!9.1
' 119.6
' 120.4
Germany
Italy
107
108.7
114.7
112.1
109.6
107
105
102
103
106
110
109
110
110
111
113
116
112
112
r
l!6
United
States '
107
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
221.0
243.5
273.9
303.5
321.0
335.0
348.3
316.1
317.4
318.8
320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
326.6
327.4
341.3
343.5
344.3
345.7
346.5
348.3
349.5
350.1
350.5
351.7
353.1
354.7
328.4
356.3
100
96
98
101
103
103.9
107.0
102.5
111.5
111.8
107.0
108.3
111.3
107.1
107.5
109.9
r
106.3
110.1
r
106
!06
107
r
!09
!09
r
108
'108
'108
109
109
111
126.7
1986: Jan"
1
Canada
Consume r prices (] 967=100)
United
Kingdom
Canada
Italy
United
Kingdom
Japan
Prance
Germany
261.3
282.3
296.2
304.1
309.7
316.6
323.0
259.1
294.2
332.7
373.1
407.9
439.5
465.1
166.9
175.8
186.9
196.8
203.3
208.2
212.7
328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
631.8
698.8
359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
538.3
565.1
599.4
321.3
318.7
320.2
321.9
323.3
323.5
323.8
320.7
323.8
328.4
325.0
325.2
453.5
455.8
459.0
462.2
464.5
466.4
468.2
468.7
469.2
470.6
471.5
472.1
211.0
211.9
212.6
212.9
213.1
213.3
212.9
212.2
212.6
212.9
213.3
213.5
736.8
744.2
749.4
756.1
760.6
764.4
766.7
768.2
771.3
780.6
786.1
578.0
582.7
588.1
600.6
603.4
604.7
603.5
605.1
604.8
605.8
607.9
608.7
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).
Data relate to all urban consumers.
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merc tiandise expo •ts 1
Total
Period
domestic
foreign
exports
Total 2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
Mercbaiadise trade balance
Here landise imports
Gei eral import i 3
Domestic exports
Manu
factured
goods
Total
2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
Exports
Manu
factured
goods
Total
(c.i.f.
value)
less
imports
(customs
value)
Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(f.a.s.)
Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(c.U.)
I .a.s. valu e
Monthly average:
1975'
1976'
1977"
1978"
1979*
1980
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386
8,847
9,462
9,919
11,762
14,886
18,043
1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810
5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991
8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
19,473
17,683
16,707
18,155
17,761
19,075
17,256
16,326
17,670
17,243
2,767
2,248
2,248
2,276
1,852
2,752
2,793
2,463
2,624
2,362
12,857
11,643
11,034
11,929
12,115
21,748
20,329
21,504
27,144
28,773
1,529
1,485
1,568
1,802
1,865
1984: Dec
19,142
18,623
2,413
2,988
12,409
25,933
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
19,401
17,853
18,446
17,779
17,414
17,438
17,412
17,423
17,732
17,368
17,976
17,024
18,852
17,358
17,881
17,298
16,893
16,858
16,857
16,945
17,241
16,872
17,482
16,508
2,161
1,995
1,973
1,913
1,603
1,614
1,604
1,783
1,709
1,836
2,128
1,907
2,562
2.542
2,386
2,336
2,164
2,181
2,265
2,436
2,369
2,338
2,368
2,406
13,282
11,967
12,538
12,141
12,166
12,127
12,010
11,894
12,145
11,799
12,134
11,304
28,297
27,985
28,129
28,295
28,685
29,425
26,630
26,083
31,764
27,594
30,285
32,888
8,971
2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831
148
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427
8,823
11,042
762
-688
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020
7,739
6,200
5,670
6,063
5,415
11,873
12,002
13,621
18,460
20,564
22,779 -2,275
21,240 -2,647
22,490 -4,797
28,431 -8,988
30,136 -11,012
1,719
5,689
17,777
27,176
-6,791
-8,033
1,932
1,817
2,128
1,804
1,919
1,912
1,641
1,719
1,903
1,598
1,865
2,138
5,373
4,988
4.372
5,764
5,609
5,958
5,100
4,842
5,573
5,659
5,656
6,103
19,879
20,347
20,716
19,812
20,198
20,653
18,901
18,761
23,291
19,432
21,833
23,723
29,687
29,299
29,492
29,629
30,080
30,853
27,920
27,327
33,282
28,821
31,657
34,397
-8,896
-10,131
-9,683
-10,516
-11,271
-11,987
-9,219
-8,660
-14,032
-10,226
-12,310
-15,864
-10,285
-11,446
-11,046
-11,850
- 12,666
-13,415
- 10,509
-9,904
-15,550
-11,453
- 13,682
-17,374
827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546
4,257
-1,440
-3,265
-3,530
-3,364
-3,030
Customs value
1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under tbe Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
9
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
-3,306
-3,558
-5,783
- 10,276
-12,374
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.
"Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade
balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter of 1985 the current account deficit rose to $30,5 billion from $27.7 billion in the second*
quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $33.1 billion from $28.6 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
10
-5
-35
-40
1977
1985
• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
Merchandise * 2
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983: I
n
m
TV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985:
1
2
3
In /estment inconie«
tions
20,565
31,172
30,386
34,082
29,495
25,402
19,109
621
-1,778
-2,237
-1,183
-318
-162
-1,765
-3,573
-2,935
-997
144
-992
-4,721
-8,974
6,013 -10,321 -5,106
5,735
4,659 -5,649
7,277
8,950 -7,077
8,121
13,186 -6,847
84 -8,135
8,345
9,557 -37,141 -8,852
9,791 -95,945 -11,413
-15,427
-991
1,873
6,339
-8,051
-45,994
-107,358
-12,283
-12,856
-13,588
-13,893
5,652
6,316
7,397
6,039
703
-71
-126
-669
-448
-1,116
-1,422
-1,735
2,260
-716
2,462 -8,289
2,290 -12,558
2,544 -15,577
- 1,606
-1,875
-2,204
-3,166
-2,322
-10,164
- 14,762
- 18,743
23,502
20,895
21,769
21,445
-15,268
-17,277
-18,513
-17,442
8,234
3,618
3,256
4,003
-346
-593
-250
-575
-1,753
-2,050
-2,574
-2,597
2,582
2,412
2,452
2,344
-15,905
-26,238
-26,093
-27,710
-2,212
-2,232
-2,876
-4,095
-18,117
-28,470
-28,969
-31,805
18,868
22,279
24,039
-16,331
-16,892
-16,490
2,537
5,387
7,549
-212
-586
-487
-2,357
-3,054
-3,026
2,411 -21,075
2,572 -24,268
2,623 -26,483
-
-3,172
-3,428
-3,968
-24,247
-27,696
-30,451
Receipts
Payments
-33,947
27,536
-25,480
-27,978
36,444
-67,216
114,107
42,245
64,132
72,506
86,411
84,768
78,023
87,609
-21,680
-32,960
-42,120
-52,329
-55,273
-52,621
-68,500
-58,418
-64,928
-70,689
-74,893
-8,883
-15,880
-20,697
-21,756
17,935
19,172
20,985
19,932
53,469
54,556
55,649
56,242
-78,091
-84,181
-84,626
-87,127
24,622
-29,625
-28,977
-30,885
55,302
53,624
52,310
-78,756
-82,211
-85,452
23,454
-28,587
-33,142
Exports
Imports
balance
142,054
184,473
224,269
237,085
211,198
201,712
219,916
-176,001
-212,009
-249,749
-265,063
-247,642
-268,928
-334,023
49,535
49,048
49,992
53,137
I
n
m
Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
36
Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1
Net
travel and
transportation
receipts
Net
military
Net
Other
services,
net 3
Balance
services
1
Balance on
current
account
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
in the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $1.4 billion in the third quarter of
1985 compared with a decrease of $4.1 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners and
international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks (excluding U.S. Treasury securities) increased $6.5 billion,
compared to an Increase of $0.2 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
60
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
60
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET
40
40
I\
l\
20
20
CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
ABROAD, NET
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
!-60
1977
1981
1980
1982
1984
1983
19B5
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Foreign assets in the T I.S., net
[increase /capital inflovi' (+>]2
U.S. assets abroad, net
[ ncrease/capit .1 outflow (-)
Period
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983:
U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 2
Other U.S.
Government
assets
Other
foreign
a,ssets
Total
Foreign
official
assets
-4,660
57,202
3,746 -59,453
-5,162 -72,802
5,097 - 100,758
-6,131 -108,122
5,006 -48,843
-5,516 -11,800
64,036
38,752
58,112
83,322
94,447
84,322
97,319
33,678
-13,665
15,497
4,960
3,672
5,795
3,424
30,358
52,416
42,615
78,362
90,775
78,526
93,895
U.S.
private
assets
Statistical d screpancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDKs)
Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)
Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy
TJ S official
assets, net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
12,521
25,431
24,982
20,276
32,821
16,717
30,486
-61,130
64,331
-86,118
111,031
-119,218
55,045
-20,447
732
-1,133
-8,155
5,175
-4,965
1,196
3,131
-26,127
1,128
-9,814
17,976
-787
16
529
-953
-1,135
-1,263
-1,171
1,436
-24,205
119
-9,172
15,587
15,158
15,608
19,539
34,017
161
1,706
2,666
6,916
15,319
13,902
22,205
27,101
13,291
-4,316
5,037
2,702
83
-2,953
3,547
34,261
33,876
33,066
33,747
-4,976
-18,988
18,364
14,846
-657
566
-799
-1,110
-2,059
-1,353
-1,369
-734
2,260
-17,070
20,532
-13,003
19,277
41,592
3,140
33,310
-2,786
-224
-686
7,119
22,063
41,816
3,825
26,191
3,816
5,866
7,466
13,341
-455
-573
-3,274
4,305
34,975
34,547
34,306
34,934
-365
-2,455
9,999
233
-356
121
718
-1,246
-9,458
13,711
26,313
33,909
-11,204
8,465
2,415
24,915
17,849
31,494
10,901
3,837
6,541
384
-570
-3,487
35,493
36,088
38,295
I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
-850
-853
-420
1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
1,139
1,152
1,093
-680
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
Page
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
22
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
23
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
24
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields....
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
' Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA
Not seasonally adjusted.
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign).
Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing.
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@FedFRASER