Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1984
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Q8th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1984 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1984 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy ($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 u TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1983, gross national product rose $75.1 billion or 9.2 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.9 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator rose at a 4.2 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES , 3,200 .^ ^n _ 2,800 — GNP __ IN CURRENT DOLLARS 3,200 ^^ 2,800 2,400 2,400 _ X] 2,000 E ^ ^ 2,000 — ^X| ^\ ^ 1,600 1,600 ^-~"~ r"7 * ^ «*» —, ^ GNP 1N 1972 DOLLA RS ^ *"* """ *» "** — 1,200 1,200 1 I 1 1 i i 1976 1975 1 1 1 1977 I 1 i 1 I I 1979 1978 1 1 1 1980 I I I 1981 i i i I 1982 1 1 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1982: I n in IV 1983- I n in r IV . Gross national product ,185.9 ,326.4 ,434.2 ,549.2 ,718.0 ,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,631.7 2,954.1 3,073.0 3,310.8 3,021.4 3,070.2 3,090.7 3,109.6 3,171.5 3,272.0 3,362.2 3,437.3 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 ,507.2 ,668.1 ,857.2 ,991.9 ,157.0 ,938.9 ,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 2,227.0 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 414.5 470.9 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 404.1 450.1 501.1 528.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports 0.7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 -4.0 j-t U.2 23.9 26.3 17.4 -7.1 29.9 33.3 .9 5.6 17.0 -8.5 -18.3 18 7 Federal Exports 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 338.8 368.8 347.6 336.8 358.4 364.5 346.0 321.6 326.9 327.1 341.1 352.3 Imports 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.8 342.5 330.2 344.0 328.5 331.2 345.0 316.1 309.9 335.6 359.4 371.0 Total 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 537.8 595.7 649.2 690.0 629.8 631.6 655.7 679.7 677.4 683.4 698.3 700.9 Total 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 275.2 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 273.5 273.7 278.1 275.6 National defense 73.1 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.2 154.0 179.4 200.2 168.1 175.2 183.6 190.8 194.4 199.4 201.2 206.0 Nondefense 28.5 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.9 75.2 79.3 75.0 81.7 68.9 78.1 88.5 79.1 74.3 76.9 69.6 State and local 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 340.8 366.5 390.5 414.8 380.0 387.5 394.0 400.5 404.0 409.7 420.2 425.3 Final sales 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,641.5 2,935.6 3,097.5 3,319.5 3,047.1 3,081.4 3,095.6 3,165.9 3,210.9 3,286.6 3,353.7 3,426.9 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Gross private domestic investment Personal consumpChange tion in expendi- NonresiResiden- business dential tures tial fixed fixed inven- Government purchases of goods and services Exports of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Total Imports Total tories 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1982: I n TTT IV 1983: I n M IV r ,185.9 ,254.3 ,246.3 ,231.6 ,298.2 ,369.7 ,438.6 ,479.4 ,475.0 ,513.8 ,485.4 ,535.1 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 931.8 956.8 970.2 1,010.9 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 165.8 174.4 166.1 168.6 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.1 44.7 37.8 53.0 ,485.8 ,489.3 ,485.7 ,480.7 961.4 968.8 971.0 979.6 173.6 167.1 163.3 160.5 36.3 37.8 36.5 40.6 ,490.1 ,525.1 ,553.4 1,571.9 986.7 1,010.6 1,016.0 1,030.2 159.9 163.0 170.1 181.3 45.5 52.6 56.8 57.1 National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 0.7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.3 43.0 28.9 12.6 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.1 159.7 147.3 139.3 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.8 116.7 118.4 126.7 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.3 286.5 291.8 293.3 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.4 110.4 116.6 118.0 73.1 68.3 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.0 73.6 78.8 84.2 28.5 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.8 37.8 33.8 151.4 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 177.9 176.1 175.2 175.3 1,175.7 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.4 1,505.3 1,494.8 1,538.4 -10.2 -3.4 -1.3 -22.7 35.2 33.4 24.0 23.0 151.8 154.5 146.4 136.5 116.6 121.1 122.4 113.5 289.4 285.8 292.2 299.7 114.5 110.3 116.9 124.4 75.5 77.8 80.4 81.4 39.1 32.5 36.5 43.0 174.9 175.4 175.3 175.2 1,495.9 1,492.7 1,487.0 1,503.4 -15.4 -5.4 3.8 3.9 20.5 12.3 11.4 6.3 137.3 136.2 140.7 143.2 116.8 123.9 129.2 136.9 292.9 292.1 295.2 293.2 118.4 117.6 118.9 117.1 82.7 84.2 84.2 85.7 35.7 33.4 34.7 31.3 174.5 174.5 176.3 176.1 1,505.5 1,530.5 1,549.7 1,568.1 10.2 17.2 11.6 -6.7 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -4.4 8.5 -9.4 -3.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Durable goods Gross private domestic investment Nondurable goods Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 ... 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 100.00 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.42 195.14 206.88 215.67 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.0 194.1 205.3 213.4 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.2 167.3 174.8 178.7 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.1 202.5 209.0 213.8 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 195.8 211.6 224.4 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.2 201.9 209.7 206.9 100.0 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.5 240.2 246.6 100.0 112.7 134.8 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 212.9 230.8 236.0 241.7 100.0 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.4 293.4 278.9 271.5 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.7 222.0 233.2 100.0 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.5 209.3 227.7 237.7 100.0 105.6 114.2 128.2 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 180.8 204.5 210.0 222.0 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.5 208.1 222.9 236.6 1982: I 203.36 206.15 208.03 210.00 201.7 203.6 206.9 209.0 172.9 174.2 176.1 176.1 206.8 207.6 210.2 211.2 206.3 209.4 213.4 217.2 208.1 211.1 209.6 209.9 240.8 240.9 240.9 238.4 236.1 236.0 236.3 235.6 281.8 273.6 281.8 278.5 218.0 221.3 223.8 224.4 222.7 225.1 228.3 234.3 209.1 212.3 213.9 205.7 217.3 220.9 224.7 228.5 212.83 214.55 216.44 218.67 210.1 212.5 214.7 216.2 177.3 177.5 179.1 180.6 210.6 213.4 215.5 215.7 219.8 223.1 225.7 228.7 207.7 206.3 206.3 207.4 244.9 243.9 249.0 248.0 238.0 240.2 242.5 246.0 265.4 270.7 278.1 271.0 230.9 232.7 233.8 235.4 234.9 236.7 238.8 240.2 221.7 222.6 221.7 222.2 231.6 234.8 238.3 241.5 n ffl IV 1983: I n in r IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period Current dollars 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.8 12.2 4.0 7.7 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983r 1982- I n m IV 1983: Constant (1972) dollars I n mr IV 5.7 5.8 .6 -1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.3 2.6 .... 1 O 3.3 Implicit price deflator Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.2 9.4 6.0 4.2 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 8.9 9.4 6.5 4.4 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.8 9.5 6.4 4.3 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.7 11.3 7.3 r 8.3 5.8 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .5 2.7 1.4 4.2 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.2 8.4 5.8 r 3.9 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.0 5.9 4.2 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.1 9.2 5.7 4.1 -1.4 6.6 2.7 2.5 1.0 1.0 -1.3 4.3 5.6 3.7 3.8 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.0 5.3 4.7 5.9 4.7 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.8 2.4 3.1 .9 3.6 5.0 4.0 6.5 4.1 5.2 3.9 6.4 5.1 4.8 3.5 6.7 5.1 8.2 13.3 11.5 9.2 2.6 9.7 7.6 4.9 5.5 3.3 3.6 4.2 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.4 3.4 4.3 4.7 4.1 '5.2 15.1 6.5 8.7 2.9 10.0 2.2 5.7 2.2 4.6 4.2 2.8 2.3 4.7 4.2 4.3 1.6 4.9 4.4 4.3 5.5 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) * Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars ... 1976 1977 1978 1979 .. 1981 1982 r 1983 1982: I n .... m IV 1983- I n m 1 Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,540.7 1,739.9 1,776.7 1,918.8 0.113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .172 .199 .209 .221 0.659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.218 1.302 1.397 1.420 0.028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .065 .074 .076 .066 0.107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .140 .169 .145 .196 0.049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .078 .074 .048 .062 0.058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .062 .095 .097 .134 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 8.002 8.144 8.216 8.201 8.126 8.332 8.373 8.642 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.024 7.558 8.198 8.969 9.894 10.850 11.700 12.269 1,764.9 1,780.2 1,786.8 1,775.0 864.3 860.5 859.5 846.4 2.042 2.069 2.079 2.097 .236 .242 .247 .254 .204 .207 .209 .215 1.374 1.394 1.403 1.419 .080 .079 .072 .073 .148 .147 .148 .135 .053 .051 .049 .040 .095 .096 .099 .095 8.342 8.330 8.409 8.421 11.463 11.614 11.795 11.952 1,817.6 1,892.4 1,957.8 856.0 885.8 909.4 2.123 2.136 2.153 .252 .245 .241 .218 .223 .221 1.428 1.416 1.412 .070 .066 .065 .156 .187 .214 .049 .062 .070 .108 .125 .144 8.492 8.627 8.716 12.126 12.213 12.304 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972-dol- This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Net interest Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 0.092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .198 .217 .245 .244 lars. 2 Compensation of employees Output per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.793 1.960 2.072 2.147 818.9 1980..... Indirect business taxes 3 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 678.0 731.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 876.1 859.5 887.5 857.7 893.8 678.0 759.4 1972 1973 1974 1975 1972 dollars Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 3 4 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees * Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,599.6 1,769.2 1,865.7 1,990.2 1,834.2 1,859.9 1,879.5 1,889.0 1,923.7 1,968.7 2,011.8 2,056.3 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,116.6 2,373.0 2,450.4 2,648.4 2,419.7 2,448.9 2,458.9 2,474.0 2,528.5 2,612.8 2,686.9 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 .. . 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1982: I n HI. IV 1983: I n. mr IV 1 Nonfarm 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 30.5 21.5 20.9 27.4 16.8 15.8 26.0 22.2 21.0 15.5 25.1 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 175.4 192.3 164.8 227.3 162.0 166.8 168.5 161.9 181.8 218.2 248.4 21.0 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 41.4 49.9 54.8 47.4 49.0 50.9 52.3 54.1 54.8 53.9 56.2 58.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 89.7 87.4 107.7 83.7 88.1 87.8 90.2 98.4 106.2 111.2 114.8 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax Total -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -8.4 94 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 -1.7 -10.6 -18.3 -7.1 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 227.0 174.2 205.9 173.2 178.8 177.3 167.5 169.7 203.3 229.1 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 203.3 165.9 196.4 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 168.0 192.7 210.8 Capital consumption adjustment 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -16.3 -11.0 -1.1 30.9 -5.6 -3.5 .1 4.7 13.9 25.6 37.6 46.5 Net interest 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 192.6 249.9 261.1 247.5 265.0 268.3 256.4 254.7 248.3 243.8 246.1 251.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r... 1982: I II III IV 1983: I II m IV r .. .. 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 ,084.3 ,204.4 ,346.5 ,507.2 ,668.1 ,857.2 ,991.9 2,157.0 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 2,227.0 Total durable goods 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.7 236.1 244.5 279.1 239.4 242.9 243.4 252.1 258.5 277.7 282.8 297.4 Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 90.7 101.6 109.9 133.2 106.4 107.6 109.4 116.1 118.4 133.9 135.6 144.7 41.7 47.1 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.3 93.5 102.0 91.7 93.9 93.5 94.9 97.3 100.8 102.9 107.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Nondurable goods Durable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Other 16.9 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 27.7 31.7 35.1 37.7 41.2 41.1 43.9 41.3 41.4 40.5 41.0 42.9 43.1 44.3 45.4 Total nondurable goods 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 668.8 733.9 761.0 803.8 749.7 754.7 766.6 773.0 777.1 799.6 814.8 823.6 Food 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 345.1 375.9 396.9 421.8 388.1 394.7 400.4 404.5 411.7 419.6 426.4 429.8 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.6 115.3 119.0 125.5 118.4 119.0 119.2 119.6 120.0 126.4 125.1 130.6 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 84.8 94.6 91.5 90.8 94.0 89.6 91.3 91.1 87.3 90.3 93.1 92.6 Services Other 64.9 71.2 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 134.3 148.1 153.5 165.6 149.2 151.5 155.6 157.9 158.1 163.3 170.2 170.7 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 784.5 887.1 986.4 1,074.2 949.7 975.2 998.9 1,021.8 1,037.4 1,069.7 1,083.5 1,106.0 Domestics Imports 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $30.8 billion (annual rate) in January, following a rise of $22.9 billion in December. Wages and salaries rose $22.8 billion in January compared to a rise of $10.0 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 2,800 120 1976 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period personal income Wage and salary disbursements 1 Proprietors ' income 3 Other labor income l 2 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r.. 168.6 ,265.0 391.2 5404 ,732.7 951 2 2,165.3 2 4350 2,578.6 2 742 1 765.7 806.4 889.9 983 2 1,106.3 1 237.6 1,356.7 1 493.2 1,568.1 1,664.5 558 64.5 759 89 4 102.5 114 9 128.0 143 5 156.6 173.4 265 24.6 19 1 19 1 263 31 9 21.8 305 21.5 209 622 65.4 750 84 8 92 2 100 2 95.6 89 7 87.4 107 7 23 5 23.0 23 5 24 8 266 27 9 31.5 41 4 49.9 548 29 1 29.9 365 39 6 45.3 508 56.8 62 8 66.4 70.5 112 4 123.2 132 5 152 8 1794 218 7 2660 341 3 366.2 3663 141 2 178.3 194 3 207 9 223 8 2503 297.6 337 2 374.5 403 6 1983: Jan Feb Mar Anr May June July Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r 2,652.6 2 650.5 2,670.1 2,689.0 2,719.3 2,732.6 2 747 6 2,756.4 2 781 6 2,813.0 28350 2,858.0 1,608.9 1,606.3 1,616.8 1,632.1 1,652.2 1,660.9 1,673.5 1,680.5 1,691.8 1,710.6 1,715.3 1,725.3 162.6 164.2 166.0 168.1 170.1 172.2 1743 176.3 178.4 180.6 182.6 184.9 22.9 21.3 22.3 22.1 21.4 19.4 16.6 14.9 15.0 21.2 25.0 29.1 96.7 97.8 100.8 103.1 106.6 109.0 109.9 110.9 113.0 114.2 114.6 115.6 53.8 54.1 54.3 54.6 54.8 55.0 55.3 50.8 55.8 56.0 56.2 56.5 68.7 68.9 68.9 69.0 69.4 69.5 70.2 70.9 71.6 72.3 72.9 73.4 360.0 3560 355.7 355.0 356.9 359.4 3644 370.2 3752 378.3 380.9 383.7 395.4 398 1 402.0 402 7 406.7 406.7 403 5 402.2 401 9 402.0 4098 412.4 1984- Jan p 2 888 7 1,748.0 187.1 34.0 117.0 56.7 74.1 386.6 413 3 AufiT 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^ Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 47 9 50.4 555 61 1 698 81 1 88 7 104 6 1120 119 5 116.6 116 2 116.8 117 6 118.8 1195 120 1 120.3 121 1 122.2 1224 122.9 128 2 Nonfarm personal income 6 1 131 8 1 229 1 1 359 3 1 506 5 1 689 7 1 899 3 2 119 5 2 377 0 2527 6 2 691 5 2 600 2 2 599 7 26184 2 637 5 2,668 5 2 683 8 2 701 4 2 711 8 2 736 7 2 761 8 2 7800 2,798 8 2 824 6 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter of 1983. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 FT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 - 1,200 1,000 800 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 - 6,000 5,000 4.000 3,000 J I 3,000 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars 1972 dollars 951.4 1,065.2 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,435.0 2,578.6 2,742.1 141.0 150.7 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.5 387.4 402.1 406.5 810.3 914.5 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,828.9 2,047.6 2,176.5 2,335.6 ' Current dollars 1972 dollars Dollars Billions of dollars 1972 1973 1974 1975 .. 1976 1977. .. . 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r Per capita personal consumption expenditures 757.7 835.5 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,718.7 1,912.4 2,051.1 2,220.9 52.6 79.0 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 110.2 135.3 125.4 114.7 3,860 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,032 8,906 9,377 9,969 3,860 4,080 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,487 4,587 4,567 4,671 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thousands) 2 Percent 3,511 3,831 4,152 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,326 8,078 8,581 9,206 3,511 3,623 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,092 4,162 4,180 4,315 2.9 5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.6 2.2 -.4 2.3 6.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.6 5.8 4.9 209,924 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,694 229,916 232,118 234,297 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982- I n m IV 1983: I n rar IV ..... 2,528.1 2,563.2 2,591.3 2,632.0 400.2 404.2 399.8 404.1 2,127.9 2,159.0 2,191.5 2,227.8 1,997.0 2,031.9 2,068.4 2,107.0 130.8 127.1 123.0 120.8 9,199 9,315 9,430 9,562 4,562 4,574 4,558 4,576 8,382 8,511 8,644 8,785 4,156 4,180 4,178 4,204 -4.3 1.1 -1.4 1.6 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.4 231,304 231,790 232,387 232,990 2,657.7 2,713.6 2,761.9 2,835.3 401.8 412.6 400.1 41L4 2,255.9 2,301.0 2,361.7 2,424.0 2,134.2 2,209.5 2,245.9 2,294.0 121.7 91.5 115.8 129.9 9,661 9,834 10,069 10,309 4,599 4,629 4,690 4,769 8,878 9,176 9,299 9,471 4,226 4,319 4,331 4,381 2.0 2.6 5.4 6.9 5.4 4.0 4.9 5.4 233,501 233,984 234,564 235,138 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $16.5 rate) and net farm income rose $14.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 billion (annual BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 160 160 GROSS FARM INCOME 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 -NET FARM INCOME- 40 40 t I I f f /N f f 20 V I 10 1976 I I 1977 I 1979 1978 I I 1980 1981 I I I 1 1982 I 1983 1 I 10 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total1 Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982- I n TTT IV 1983: I n m iv*» Livestock and products Current dollars 1967 dollars 8 102.9 108.7 127.2 150.4 150.1 167.1 162.2 158.6 95.4 96.2 112.9 131.8 140.5 142.3 144.6 142.4 46.3 47.6 59.2 68.6 67.8 69.2 70.2 70.7 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.2 72.7 73.1 74.4 71.7 -1.5 1.1 .8 4.9 -5.3 7.6 -1.9 -8.8 82.7 88.9 99.5 118.1 128.6 137.0 140.1 136.0 20.1 19.8 27.7 32.3 21.5 30.1 22.1 22.6 11.8 10.9 14.2 14.8 8.7 11.0 7.6 7.6 168.4 158.5 155.9 165.8 147.6 142.0 142.3 146.3 70.7 71.0 70.2 68.9 76.9 71.0 72.1 77.4 2.0 -1.7 3.5 -4.2 141.0 141.5 140.3 137.6 27.4 17.0 15.6 28.2 9.7 5.9 5.3 9.6 156.4 153.1 154.1 170.6 144.5 141.3 145.0 138.8 71.5 70.8 70.1 70.3 73.0 70.5 74.9 68.5 136.6 135.1 135.3 137.0 19.8 18.0 18.8 33.6 6.7 6.1 6.3 11.1 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses 3 -8.6 -9.9 -12.3 -4.4 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1983, corporate profits before tax rose $25.8 billion (annual rate) from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $16.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 280 240 40 40 1983 ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment l Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfinancial Total 2 Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1983 1982: I n m IV 1983- I n m Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Profits before tax Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade Total Inventory valuation adjustment 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 161.9 179.7 144.1 174.0 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 26.9 20.3 20.9 31.4 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 134.9 159.4 123.2 142.5 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 72.9 86.7 59.0 69.9 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 23.6 32.8 27.6 34.4 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 227.0 174.2 205.9 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.8 82.8 59.2 75.7 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 149.8 144.1 115.1 130.2 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.6 64.7 68.7 73.3 34.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 91.2 79.5 46.4 56.9 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 147.0 148.5 147.6 133.1 15.5 20.4 22.2 25.5 131.5 128.1 125.4 107.6 60.9 61.4 65.5 48.3 30.2 27.4 25.2 27.5 173.2 178.8 177.3 167.5 60.3 61.4 60.8 54.0 112.9 117.4 116.5 113.5 67.7 67.8 68.8 70.4 45.2 49.5 47.7 43.1 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 168.0 192.7 210.8 147.8 172.2 187.4 29.8 33.8 31.9 118.0 138.4 155.5 53.7 68.1 78.2 27.8 33.9 36.7 169.7 203.3 229.1 61.5 76.0 84.9 108.2 127.2 144.1 71.4 72.0 73.7 75.9 36.7 55.2 70.4 -1.7 -10.6 -18.3 -7.1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Undistributed profits 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 203.3 165.9 196.4 . IV 1 2 Dividends 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 -20.0 -40.0 11 6 -14.7 16 2 -24.0 43 1 -42.9 -23.6 -8.4 -9.4 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1983, business fixed investment rose $25.2 billion (annual rate) and residential investment outlays were unchanged from their third quarter level. There was a $10.5 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $8.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 600 500 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 400 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 300 -100 -TOO 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 . 1973 1974. 1975 . .. . 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r. 1982: I n m IV 1983- I . ... n in r .... IV . Gross private domestic investment Total Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Producers durable equipment Total Nonfarm 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 414.5 470.9 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248.9 290.2 308.8 352.2 348.3 348.9 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.9 133.4 141.9 131.5 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 197.9 218.8 206.4 217.4 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 102.9 104.3 90.8 130.7 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.1 99.8 86.0 125.6 0.7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 -9.8 18.5 -24.5 -8.7 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 -4.5 10.9 -23.1 -3.4 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 361.3 352.7 342.3 337.0 144.7 144.2 140.0 138.6 216.5 208.5 202.2 198.4 87.3 91.0 87.9 96.8 83.2 86.1 83.4 91.2 .9 1.6 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 -25.7 -11.2 -4.9 -56.4 -27.6 8.8 -2.3 -53.7 404.1 450.1 501.1 528.2 332.1 336.3 351.0 376.2 132.9 127.4 130.9 134.8 199.3 208.8 220.2 241.4 111.3 128.4 141.5 141.5 106.7 123.3 136.3 136.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 -39.4 -14.5 8.5 10.5 -39.0 -10.3 18.4 17.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Structures Change in business inventories Residential fixed investment Nonresidential fixed investment 9.6 15.2 16.0 10.5 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department October-December surveys, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1984 is expected to be nearly 10 percent above the 1983 level; spending in 1983 is expected to be 4 percent below 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT \ 300 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING —r MANUFACTURING 100 TOO 80 80 60 60 40 40 i i r J I 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982 1981 1980 _!/ 1983 J/ 1984 _!/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equipment Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period Total Plant Equipment Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Mining Transportation Public utilities Trade and services * Communication and other 2 Starts of plant and equipment projects, manufac- turing 3 1976 1977 1978 1979 .. .. 1980 1981 .... 1982 1983 4 1984 4 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 316.43 303 20 333.32 71.12 80.19 92.63 105.75 117.57 133.35 134.58 100.33 117.89 138.60 164.68 178.06 188.14 181.86 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 119.68 111.18 125.98 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 56.44 51.45 59.87 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 63.23 59.74 66.11 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 196.75 192.01 207.34 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 15.45 12.00 13.48 8.89 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.95 11.25 10.96 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.95 42.62 44.17 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 86.95 88.02 96.35 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 40.46 38.11 42.38 59.39 77.73 88.41 113,50 123.58 135.61 104.35 1982- III IV 313.76 303.18 134.43 127.32 179.33 175.86 118.26 110.23 56.61 50.51 61.65 59.72 195.51 192.95 14.57 13.41 11.29 12.33 43.02 43.00 86.88 84.36 39.75 39.84 25.31 23.62 1983: I.......... II Ill IV 4 293.03 293.46 304.70 321.60 125.40 125.60 130.59 167.62 167.86 174.12 109.86 108.79 111.12 114.97 50.74 48.48 53.06 53.52 59.12 60.31 58.06 61.45 183.17 184.67 193.59 206.62 12.03 10.91 11.93 13.14 11.04 10.88 11.00 12.10 41.61 41.48 42.22 45.17 82.38 85.85 91.06 92.79 36.11 35.54 37.38 43.42 23.35 27.71 29.98 1984: I 4 II 4 323.07 325.42 119.00 120.96 57.18 58.09 61.81 62.86 204.08 204.47 12.25 13.68 10.78 11.42 41.82 42.30 96.98 95.03 42.25 42.03 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 ''Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October-December 1983, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 249,000 in January and unemployment fell 169,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 1976 1984 * 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted] Period Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA 1978 1979 1980 1981 . ... 1982 1983 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dee 1984: Jan 163,541 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 175,021 175,169 175,320 175,465 175,622 175,793 175,970 176,122 176,297 176,474 176,636 176,809 177,219 1 Unemployment Civilian employment "DACI xiesi- dent Armed T k lorce t JUaoor including ._ e A ~i Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force NSA Forces 1,631 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,667 1,664 1,664 ,671 ,669 ,668 ,664 ,682 ,695 ,695 ,685 ,688 1,686 103,882 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 97,679 100,421 102,251 104,962 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 112,344 112,352 112,399 112,646 112,619 113,573 113,489 113,799 113,924 113,561 113,720 113,824 113,901 15 Total Agricultural Total Part-time for economic reasons 1 3,387 92,661 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 100,821 100,836 100,980 101,277 101,431 102,411 102,889 103,166 103,571 103,665 104,291 104,629 110,677 110,688 110,735 110,975 110,950 111,905 111,825 112,117 112,229 111,866 112,035 112,136 99,154 99,172 99,316 99,606 99,762 100,743 101,225 101,484 101,876 101,970 102,606 102,941 3,420 3,415 3,386 3,392 3,374 3,479 3,499 3,449 3,308 3,240 3,257 3,356 95,734 95,757 95,930 96,214 96,388 97,264 97,726 98,035 98,568 98,730 99,349 99,585 6,678 6,362 6,169 6,077 5,965 5,886 5,700 5,866 6,027 5,724 5,848 5,712 104,876 112,215 103,190 3,271 99,918 5,943 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulljme work, etc. I 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Labor force participation rate (percent) 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 Total weeks and over 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 11,523 11,516 11,419 11,369 11,188 11,162 10,600 10,633 10,353 9,896 9,429 9,195 9,026 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 4,623 4,613 4,587 4,396 4,510 4,486 4,398 4,078 3,889 3,655 3,527 3,369 3,201 Total 2 Civilian 3 63.5 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.2 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.6 64.5 64.6 64.6 64.3 64.4 64.4 64.3 63.2 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.9 63.8 64.3 64.2 64.3 64.3 64.0 64.0 64.0 63.9 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonally adjusted data beginning 1979 are as revised in January issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 31-460 0 - 8 4 - 2 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell to 7.9 percent in January from 8.1 percent in December. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 8.0 percent in January from 8.2 percent in December. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 20 BLACK AND OTHER /* 15 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS 10 10 WHITE 1980 1981 1982 1984 1980 1984 1983 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 civilian workers 1978 6.0 6.1 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 May... June.. July .. Aug... Sept .. Oct.... Nov... Dec... 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.1 Jan... 7.9 1983: . . Jan... Feb ... Mar... Apr ... 1984: 1 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.4 Both sexes 16-19 years Black and other White Black Total Experienced wage and salary workers 9.9 9.8 9.4 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.9 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.5 11.8 11.8 12.0 11.4 10.5 10.9 10.3 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.2 8.0 10.7 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.8 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.8 11.7 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.4 7.6 5.0 10.7 7.8 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.1 18.9 18.2 18.6 18.7 18.5 18.6 17.9 17.9 17.3 16.7 16.1 16.3 20.7 19.8 20.1 20.7 20.3 20.3 19.6 19.8 18.9 18.3 17.7 17.8 10.1 10.1 10.0 19.4 6.9 15.6 16.7 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.2 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.1 8.0 7.3 7.1 9.0 8.5 11.0 10.9 23.1 22.7 23.6 23.4 23.0 23.6 22.7 22.8 21.8 21.6 20.2 20.1 8.8 8.9 Parttime workers 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 Pulltime workers 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 5.6 5.5 6.8 8.3 8.1 Women who maintain families 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 12.8 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 5.2 5.1 Married men, spouse present Labor force time lost (percent) 2 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 11.9 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 16.4 16.1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 By selected groups By race By sex and age 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data are as revised in January issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6.5 6.3 7.9 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 1526 weeks fell, and the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both measures of average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median—rose in January. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT A_ 60 — 50 40 — 30 20 10 — 10 — 1980 1980 *SEASONALIY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution 1 Duration of unemployment Unemployment (thousands) Period Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 1 State programs Number of weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Job losers Average (mean) Median 10.8 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 5.4 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 42.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 Job leavers Insured unemployment Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Reentrants New entrants 14.3 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 2,434 3,350 3,047 4,061 388 488 460 583 2,592 3,837 3,410 4,590 5,459 5,437 5,134 4,642 3,947 3,481 3,275 2,917 2,580 2,478 2,620 2,915 Initial claims Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 Weekly average, thousands 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 48.1 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 1983- Jan Feb Mar Apr May. T J June July Auir Sept Oct Nov Dec 11,523 11,516 11,419 11,369 11,188 11,162 10,600 10,633 10,353 9,896 9,429 9,195 31.2 32.4 31 3 32.3 32.2 32.8 32.8 34.1 35.9 35.5 35.1 36.5 28.8 27.5 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.7 26.4 27.7 26.7 27.6 27.6 27.1 16.9 16.7 16.5 15.2 16.0 14.4 16.7 15.0 13.3 13.9 14.1 13.9 23.1 23.3 24.1 24.3 24.7 26.1 24.2 23.3 24.1 23.1 23.1 22.5 19.4 19.1 19.2 19.2 20.2 21.4 21.3 19.9 20.2 20.1 20.2 19.6 11.3 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.9 10.8 10.1 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.0 59.8 60.3 60.2 59.8 60.2 58.4 58.6 57.7 57.1 56.5 55.0 54.1 7.3 7.3 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.2 22.4 22.0 21.6 22.0 21.4 21.8 22.7 23.3 22.7 23.4 23.7 24.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.0 11.1 12.6 11.6 11.4 11.9 11.4 12.1 12.4 3,979 3,952 3,885 3,826 3,615 3,389 3,190 3,025 2,893 2,797 2,734 2,636 513 498 491 488 460 424 408 410 386 389 388 389 9,026 36.0 28.4 13.0 22.6 20.5 9.2 53.6 9.0 24.4 13.1 2,615 368 1984* Jan 1 2 , Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3 Federal supplemental compensation program. 936 953 691 1,117 1,445 1,086 849 737 655 522 901 731 584 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted unemployment data beginning 1979 are as revised in January issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 287,000 in January. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 22 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 90 20 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 18 GOVERNMENT 16 70 14 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 22 20 50 18 40 6 CONSTRUCTION GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 Illlllllll 20 1980 1982 1981 1984 1983 1980 1981 1982 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries •p0 •_ J Jreriou 1978 . 1979 1980. 1981 1982 1983 p 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec13..... 1984: Jmp 1 Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale and retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal State and local 86,697 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,596 89,977 25,585 26461 25,658 25497 23,907 23^646 4,229 4463 4,346 4', 188 3,911 3*947 20,505 21^040 20,285 20', 170 18,853 is'678 12,274 12J60 12,187 12409 11,100 10^932 8,231 8,280 8,098 s',061 7,753 7J46 61,113 63,363 64,748 65*659 65,689 66^331 4,923 5,136 5,146 5' 165 5,081 4,940 19,542 20492 20,310 2o',547 20,401 20^512 4,724 4/975 5,160 s',298 5,340 5454 16,252 17412 17,890 is',619 19,064 19,'680 2,753 2J73 2,866 2,152 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,259 13,064 12,991 88,885 88,746 88,814 89,090 89,421 89,844 90,152 89,748 90,851 91,084 91,355 91,583 23,186 23,049 23,030 23,159 23,347 23,518 23,724 23,830 23,935 24,168 24,311 24,412 3,905 3,790 3,757 3,786 3,860 3,933 3,974 4,014 4,038 4,060 4,094 4,091 18,244 18,245 18,267 18,376 18,493 18,582 18,733 18,793 18,871 19,064 19,172 19,275 10,594 10,608 10,617 10,689 10,788 10,844 10,961 11,022 11,081 11,235 11,320 11,405 7,650 7,637 7,650 7,687 7,705 7,738 7,772 7,771 7,790 7,829 7,852 7,870 65,699 65,697 65,784 65,931 66,074 66,326 66,428 65,918 66,916 66,916 67,044 67,171 4,979 4,966 4,963 4,988 4,993 4,992 4,984 4,341 5,031 5,019 5,019 5,005 20,355 20,343 20,350 20,329 20,356 20,494 20,529 20,580 20,612 20,666 20,718 20,773 5,374 5,384 5,391 5,423 5,435 5,451 5,465 5,488 5,499 5,503 5,515 5,524 19,238 19,262 19,356 19,478 19,546 19,668 19,770 19,835 19,913 19,956 20,016 20,101 2,748 2,742 2,742 2,738 2,756 2,742 2,738 2,746 2,778 2,761 2,763 2,771 13,005 13,000 12,982 12,975 12,988 12,979 12,942 12,928 13,083 13,011 13,013 12,995 91,870 24,612 4,194 19,375 11,463 7,912 67,258 5,031 20,837 5,540 20,143 2,760 12,948 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; Total nonagricultural employment 1983 2,112 2,739 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1983- Jan Feb Mar. Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov. Dee p 1984- Jan p Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural * Overtime Total 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 39.7 39.2 39.5 40.1 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.8 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.9 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.1 34.5 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.2 35.3 35.2 35.3 35.6 Total private nonagrieultural l Percent change 4from a year earlier 5 Index, 1977 = 100 Manufacturing 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 $4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.67 8.01 $4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.50 8.84 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 7.88 7.91 7.91 7.95 7.97 8.00 8.03 7.98 8.08 8.13 8.13 8.16 8.21 8.68 8.76 8.75 8.78 8.79 8.82 8.85 8.84 8.87 8.94 9.00 9.01 9.03 3.4 Adjusted hourly earnings index2 — total private nonagricultural Current dollars Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.2 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.3 155.1 152.7 153.4 153.4 154.0 154.6 154.8 155.2 155.0 155.9 156.8 156.9 157.5 158.2 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.8 4.6 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.3 94.7 r 94.8 95.1 94.9 r 94.7 94.7 94.8 94.7 r 94.1 r 94.3 r 94.6 r 94.4 r 94.7 94.7 r r 1977 dollars -0.7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 -4.0 — 1.0 .8 1.5 1.8 2.4 .6 .2 .4 .1 .1 .2 .2 .4 .0 .4 -.1 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Average gross weekly earnings Period Total private nonagricultural l Current dollars 1975 1976 1977 .... 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983P 1983- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sent Oct Nov Dec? 1984: Jan p . 1 2 $163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 266.92 280.35 276.59 272.90 275.27 277.46 279.75 280.80 281.05 279.30 284.42 286.99 286.18 288.05 292.28 Manufacturing 1977 dollars 3 $184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 167.87 171.15 Wholesale and retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars Current dollars $190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.65 354.48 $266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.45 441.86 $126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.62 198.10 207.03 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.6 5.0 31 1.5 1.2 .2 31 -5.8 1.5 -1.3 2.0 !71.58 !69.29 !70.34 r !70.64 171.42 171.85 r !71.48 r !69.58 r !72.06 r !73.09 r !72.19 r !73.21 344.60 343.39 345.63 352.08 351.60 353.68 355.77 356.25 361.90 362.96 365.40 364.91 461.35 439.20 438.00 443.54 441.19 440.82 440.89 440.08 448.50 435.08 435.17 439.02 202.57 200.65 202.88 203.83 205.76 207.68 207.67 207.34 207.97 211.54 210.88 213.88 6.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.8 3.7 6.0 6.4 5.7 5.7 3.1 2 .6 .7 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.3 3.2 3.7 2.8 2.4 174.91 369.33 457.30 213.84 5.8 2.1 r r r Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 1 Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 3 Construction 4 5 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on unadjusted data. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data in 1977 dollars revised beginning 1967. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor cost Implicit price deflator5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.7 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 91.5 93.5 96.6 97.8 96.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.4 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.1 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.5 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 109.0 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 118.7 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.4 96.3 98.9 100.0 100.9 99.1 96.8 99.0 100.0 100.9 98.9 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.4 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 98.9 101.3 101.2 103.8 98.4 100.3 100.2 103.4 106.5 109.8 106.7 111.0 106.5 109.3 106.3 110.9 107.6 108.4 105.4 106.9 108.2 109.0 106.0 107.3 131.2 143.9 155.1 163.1 130.7 143.5 154.7 r !54.2 96.5 95.9 97.4 99.2 96.1 95.6 97.1 99.4 132.7 142.1 153.3 157.1 132.8 143.0 154.4 158.1 128.1 140.1 147.7 r !53.3 128.1 140.4 148.6 r !54.2 101.1 100.7 101.1 101.9 100.0 99.9 100.4 100.8 107.2 106.9 106.6 106.0 106.5 106.7 106.5 105.4 106.0 106.2 105.4 104.0 106.5 106.8 106.0 104.6 151.6 153.9 156.5 158.7 151.3 153.5 156.1 158.3 r 96.9 97.0 97.0 r 97.9 149.9 152.9 154.7 155.6 151.3 153.6 155.4 157.1 145.5 147.5 148.5 149.4 146.4 148.3 149.1 150.5 102.5 103.9 104.2 104.8 101.7 103.5 104.0 104.3 107.1 110.4 112.4 113.9 106.7 110.2 112.5 114.2 104.5 106.2 107.9 108.7 104.9 106.5 108.2 109.5 160.7 162.1 163.6 r !66.3 161.0 162.7 164.2 166.0 r 99.5 99.5 156.9 156.0 156.9 r !58.7 158.3 157.2 157.8 159.2 151.5 152.5 153.8 r !55.3 152.4 153.4 154.7 r !56.1 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 . . r . .. . 1982- I n m IV 1983: I n mr IV .... 97.1 97.3 97.2 r 98.1 99.4 99.2 99.0 r 99.6 r r r r 99.4 r 99.4 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1970 1971 1972 1973.. 1974 .. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 0.8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 0.3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 _0.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.0 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.0 -1.6 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 -1.2 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.5 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 -.5 2.4 -.1 2.6 -.7 1.9 i 3.1 — .4 -1.6 1.7 3.3 2.0 5.9 1.2 2.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 r. 1982: I n m IV 1983- I n mr IV 3.0 3.9 .4 -1.3 -.4 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.1 2.8 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 -2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 -4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.5 -4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.7 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.4 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.0 .5 2.6 1.2 .9 -1.7 .4 2.2 1.0 .9 -2.0 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.8 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.1 5.7 7.1 8.8 -1.3 3.1 -2.8 4.0 -1.4 2.7 28 4.4 -.8 .7 27 1.4 -.7 .7 -2.7 1.2 10.4 10.5 9.7 9.8 1.1^ ^ 7.8 5.6 5.2 -2.6 -.6 1.5 1.9 -2.8 -.6 1.6 2.3 11.1 7.1 7.9 2.5 11.1 7.7 7.9 2.4 9.2 9.4 5.4 r 3.8 10.0 9.6 5.8 r 3.8 .1 -.4 2.3 1.3 -6.3 -1.0 — 1.1 -2.3 -6.2 .8 -.6 -4.1 -6.0 .6 -2.7 -5.4 -6.2 1.2 -2.9 -5.3 9.4 6.4 6.7 5.7 10.0 5.8 7.2 5.8 r 9.8 8.1 5.0 2.3 9.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 3.4 5.5 2.7 2.6 3.7 5.4 2.2 3.7 3.7 7.1 2.3 .9 4.2 12.7 7.8 5.4 4.9 13.7 8.9 6.0 2.1 6.5 6.5 3.1 1.2 6.2 6.4 5.1 5.4 3.5 3.6 7.0 6.8 4.3 3.8 4.4 r 3.3 -2.2 2.3 4.7 3.0 -2.6 1.5 3.5 5.5 2.8 3.3 4.1 5.3 2.7 3.3 3.7 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars, 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. * Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 16 5 r 5.5 r .9 r__. 4 r 4.1 r 5.0 r -.8 r -.6 2.4 6.0 r .3 r .O r 4.1 6.5 r .O r -.3 .0 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in January, compared with a 0.6 percent increase in December. The index for January was 15.1 percent above its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 .TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 .UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 UTILITIES / -x. 140 140 MINING ' 120 120 lllill Mill 1980 1981 1982 1983 III 11 111 Ml 1984 100 «/-- 180 .MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIC >N NONDURAI 160 -N *'T ~\ \'S 140 V \ ^ 90 S***~-\+ + .^—s s* A DURABLE 120 Mllllilll! IIMllllMI 1980 1981 1980 ^-N Illllllllll 1983 1984 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 80 70 60 Illllllllll M l l l l l l l l i Illllllllll 1983 1982 p- / 1982 1981 PERCENT* 1980 1984 1981 1982 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1983 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1967 = 100 1967 'pr&pOTtion 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r. 1983 1983* Jan Feb Mar Apr May . . . June July1 Aue Septr Oct Nov rr Dec 1984- Janp 1 2 100.00 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.6 137.4 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 151.8 153.8 155.0 155.5 156.4 158.1 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes. Capacity utilization rate, percent * Industry production indexes, 1967 = 100 Total industrial production Manufacturing Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier -0.4 -8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 6.5 -2.3 34 -1.2 1.7 3.7 5.6 7.9 9.7 12.0 14.2 15.3 15.7 15.1 Mining Total 87.95 129.4 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 148.3 136.7 138.2 140.4 143.1 145.1 147.4 150.6 152.8 155.1 156.2 156.5 157.0 159.0 Durable 51.98 125.7 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 134.5 122.5 123.9 126.3 129.1 131.0 133.2 136.8 138.8 141.6 142.8 143.5 144.3 146.9 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 134.6 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 168.3 157.4 159.0 160.7 163.3 165.4 167.8 170.6 172.9 174.6 175.6 175.3 175.5 176.6 6.36 115.3 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 116.6 121.9 115.6 112.6 111.6 112.8 112.6 115.0 116.1 117.1 118.3 120.9 124.5 126.2 5.69 143.7 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 168.7 172.4 163.1 162.0 165.8 169.3 169.7 169.8 176.0 179.3 179.3 176.5 176.3 183.2 178.9 Federal Reserve series 83.7 72.9 79.6 82.2 84.7 86.0 79.6 79.4 71.1 75.3 70.0 70.6 71.6 72.9 73.8 74.9 76.4 77.3 78.4 78.9 78.9 79.0 79.9 Commerce series 2 83:0 77.0 81.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 78.0 76.0 70.0 69.8 73.3 75.5 Industrial materials (Federal Reserve series) 87.0 73.3 81.1 82.6 85.6 87.6 80.4 80.7 70.1 75.2 68.7 70.1 71.5 72.5 73.5 74.4 76.5 77.4 78.6 79.5 79.8 80.0 80.8 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Final products Equipment Consumer goods Period Total Total 1967 proportion 47.82 27.68 1974 1975 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.5 147.1 140.1 138.9 139.9 142.8 144.5 146.4 149.0 150.7 152.1 152.7 153.4 154.9 156.6 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 151.8 143.6 143.4 144.3 147.7 150.4 152.4 154.8 156.3 157.3 156.9 156.5 158.0 159.6 1976... 1977 1978... 1979 1980... 1981 1982... 1983 r 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May T y June Julyy A Aus: Sept Intermediate products . .. Oct r Nov r . ... Dec r 1984: Jan p Durable goods 7.89 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.2 147.5 131.6 134.4 136.3 140.5 145.5 149.2 152.9 154.2 157.5 156.7 155.9 158.3 162.1 Nondurable goods 19.79 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 148.0 153.5 148.3 147.0 147.5 150.5 152.3 153.6 155.6 157.1 157.2 157.1 156.7 157.8 158.5 Total 20.14 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.8 140.7 135.3 132.7 133.8 136.2 136.5 138.2 141.0 143.1 144.9 147.0 149.1 150.7 152.6 Business 12.63 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 153.1 146.6 142.7 143.7 146.9 147.7 150.2 153.3 156.6 158.7 161.3 164.1 165.4 167.3 Defense and space equipment 7.51 82.4 80.0 79.8 81.3 86.5 93.4 98.2 102.7 109.4 119.9 116.4 116.1 117.0 118.2 117.6 118.0 120.4 120.2 121.8 122.9 124.0 126.0 127.9 Total 12.89 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.3 156.6 143.7 145.3 147.8 150.8 152.2 154.5 158.1 162.2 165.4 166.5 165.7 165.1 167.0 Materials Construction supplies Business supplies 6.42 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.3 142.4 127.0 129.7 133.1 136.4 138.4 142.1 145.8 149.0 151.4 152.3 151.9 150.5 152.7 6.47 136.0 129.7 141.7 149.5 156.5 163.1 162.8 166.7 162.1 170.7 160.3 160.9 162.3 165.2 166.0 166.8 170.4 175.3 179.3 180.6 179.4 179.6 39.29 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 145.3 132.0 134.9 137.6 139.7 141.7 143.7 147.8 149.7 152.2 154.0 154.7 155.5 157.0 Supplementary group: Energy total 12.23 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 135.9 132.4 131.0 131.9 133.9 133.8 133.6 138.5 139.4 139.1 137.7 138.3 141.5 140.7 [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1974 1975 . 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r r Oct Nov Dec r 1984- Jan p 6.57 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.3 85.5 73.1 77.9 81.2 83.1 84.9 84.8 85.5 87.5 90.6 95.3 92.3 91.0 93.9 Iron and steel 4.21 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 71.6 59.0 64.3 66.9 68.5 69.5 69.7 71.8 75.1 78.2 84.3 79.2 75.5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Fabricated metal products 5.93 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 120.1 107.6 110.3 113.9 115.3 115.5 118.5 122.7 126.0 127.4 126.9 128.5 128.0 129.8 Nonelectrical machinery 9.15 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 149.0 150.4 138.0 136.2 138.6 143.1 146.1 149.5 154.2 157.3 158.3 159.2 161.6 162.0 164.4 Electrical machinery Total 8.05 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.3 185.6 169.5 168.9 173.8 177.2 180.1 182.4 188.3 189.2 195.8 198.4 199.9 201.7 206.4 9.27 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 117.7 106.3 109.6 110.1 111.4 113.8 116.6 119.7 121.1 124.7 125.5 127.3 130.3 133.4 Motor vehicles and parts 4.50 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 137.0 113.9 123.0 123.2 125.5 130.4 136.2 142.3 144.3 150.9 150.9 152.9 158.3 162.6 Lumber and products 1.64 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 137.1 130.0 130.2 128.7 132.1 135.8 137.4 141.3 141.6 142.3 141.7 140.6 142.5 Apparel products 3.31 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 4.72 7.74 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 215.8 197.6 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.1 152.7 141.3 144.0 145.9 145.7 145.2 147.4 152.0 157.8 161.7 162.7 162.0 163.7 1654 202.3 205.7 208.5 211.0 214.7 218.3 220.3 224.1 228.4 227.3 228.0 Foods 8.75 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.1 154.4 153.0 152.0 153.7 155.6 157.7 159.9 159.3 158.2 157.6 157.5 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total 1 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1976 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 239.4 232.0 265.1 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 186.1 181.0 214.8 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.8 112.9 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 49.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 51.9 85.2 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 48.2 51.5 52.5 39.1 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 51.1 50.3 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 110.0 111.0 138.0 Annual rates 1982: Dec 1983' Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AMS Sept Oct Nov r . ... Dec r 1984- Jan p 240.2 247.9 243.0 241.9 247.4 254.8 264.3 274.2 282.0 285.4 271.7 275.4 277.8 281.8 190.8 195.0 194.3 194.9 199.5 206.0 214.7 222.8 228.5 232.6 223.0 225.3 228.4 232.5 86.0 89.7 93.6 96.1 102.0 107.5 113.5 122.3 127.1 129.1 121.7 119.1 119.3 122.6 Annual rates 52.6 53.3 51.0 49.7 46.8 46.3 49.0 48.1 50.5 50.1 46.7 50.4 51.9 55.0 58.6 63.4 68.8 72.3 77.3 82.2 87.9 92.7 94.8 95.0 92.1 91.9 92.6 94.6 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 592 739 977 1,059 904 919 690 750 52.2 52.0 49.8 49.0 50.7 52.2 52.2 52.4 50.9 53.4 54.6 55.8 57.2 54.9 49.4 52.9 48.7 47.0 47.9 48.7 49.6 51.4 53.5 52.8 48.7 50.1 49.4 49.3 131 127 119 131 129 148 151 137 146 143 139 145 134 150 595 803 693 632 652 734 785 741 783 830 856 884 r 803 931 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division, NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r . .. 1 unit 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,701.3 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.0 1,632 1,706 1,592 1,549 1,779 1,743 1,793 1,873 1,679 1,672 1,730 1,666 1,915 1,087 ,066 ,016 ,030 ,150 ,124 1,048 1,124 1,038 1,017 1,074 1,011 1,241 2-4 units 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 5 or more units 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 520.8 Units authorized 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,593.7 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period * 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,384.3 646 819 817 709 545 436 412 625 353 402 414 3 398 336 272 251 302 1,195 1,138 1,147 1,164 1,353 1,386 1,432 1,729 1,476 1,602 1,418 1,415 611 593 611 635 665 658 594 544 589 624 629 808 259 262 262 266 273 284 289 296 298 301 310 302 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Jan r Feb r Mar r. Apr r May r June r July r Aug r Sept r Oet r Nov r Dec r 1984: Jan p 1983: 1 2 97 116 103 113 102 118 127 109 115 96 130 133 134 448 524 473 406 527 501 618 640 526 559 526 522 540 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterlv* data entered hi last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier Aata. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 1,447 1,479 1,467 1,536 1,635 1,761 ,782 ,652 ,506 ,630 ,642 1,549 1,817 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing starts revised beginning 1981. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 2.4 percent in December and inventories rose $2 billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 2.2 percent in January following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. - BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) I6U 150 RETAIL If1sIVENTORIES 140 130 __ 120 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 6UU 550 500 ^~ r 450 — I /—I; AND MAN UFACTURINC TRA DE INVENTORIES ~ " m^~ 110 400 ** ...— -^ 350 — -^/ 300 ~r~ - 90 % ^~ r- 80 MAh UFACTURINC AND TRADE SALE S r^" - ^—pL^ i 100 ,'-"' •s* _ - *'* Kb TAIL SALES - 70 - - 250 - 60 50 200 lllllilllil Illlllillll lilllllllll 1981 1980 1982 iiiiiiiini lilllllllll 1983 1984 - 150 - MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 100 lilllllllll lf|l|l|llll Illllllilll lilliliiiil Ililllliiil 1984 1982 1983 1980 1981 1.20 1984 1980 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Sales 2 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade * Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1976 . 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 P 204,277 229,624 260,307 297,663 327,284 356,099 344,179 367,673 318,544 351,036 398,890 450,736 492,885 526,152 511,942 520,133 50,694 55,987 66,117 78,680 92,658 100,673 95,363 98,791 64,078 72,311 85,685 98,394 112,341 116,986 118,790 120,341 54,781 60,435 67,286 75,047 80,235 87,298 89,640 97,808 18,150 20,724 23,218 25,196 24,401 26,335 26,739 31,559 36,631 39,711 44,067 49,850 55,834 60,963 62,901 66,249 79,273 89,530 102,790 111,229 116,430 126,833 128,250 138,960 37,841 43,135 49,987 53,717 54,400 59,095 59,597 66,478 41,432 46,395 52,803 57,512 62,030 67,738 68,653 72,482 1.48 1.46 .44 .43 .45 .44 .51 .39 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.40 1.41 1.35 1982- Dec 338,391 511,942 91,389 118,790 92,459 28,723 63,736 128,250 59,597 68,653 1.51 1.39 1983- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July * y . Aug1 Sept Oct Nov r .. Dee* 345,337 341,490 348,009 351,100 363,925 373,572 372,434 374,358 380,089 382,209 386,610 396,044 507,550 507,665 503,222 504,796 505,658 505,521 505,826 510,430 513,883 515,999 518,124 520,133 94,790 92,245 92,943 92,586 97,529 100,479 100,315 100,568 102,297 104,578 103,502 107,218 117,564 116,417 116,591 117,498 115,855 115,630 115,745 116,813 118,410 119,882 119,454 120,341 92,308 91,164 93,263 95,449 98,431 99,173 99,521 97,801 99,202 100,841 102,024 r 102,151 28,307 27,490 29,160 30,668 32,124 32,663 32,539 30,893 32,125 33,092 34,141 r 34,936 64,001 63,674 64,103 64,781 66,307 66,510 66,982 66,908 67,077 67,749 67,883 r 67,215 127,869 130,392 129,327 129,901 131,654 132,501 131,905 133,783 135,452 135,301 137,652 138,960 59,735 61,517 60,412 60,640 61,401 62,019 61,284 62,313 64,021 63,762 65,596 66,478 68,134 68,875 68,915 69,261 70,253 70,482 70,621 71,470 71,431 71,539 72,056 72,482 1.47 1.49 1.45 1.44 1.39 1.35 .36 .36 .35 .35 1.34 1.31 1.39 1.43 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.34 1.35 1.36 104,414 34,980 69,434 T y 1984- Jan p .. .. 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. 3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December manufacturers' shipments and orders rose while inventories fell. In January, according to advance data, durable goods new orders rose and shipments fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 360 320 - INVENTORIES- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 280 240 200 160 DURABLE GOODS 120 100 80 40 NONDURABLE GOODS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders * Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio 4 48,145 53,950 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,268 85,984 81,202 80,516 80,308 82,636 82,924 85,418 87,584 87,221 88,324 89,965 88,436 88,960 90,348 182,499 205,675 262,671 305,453 325,908 323,346 300,971 334,263 300,971 305,599 305,268 306,053 309,015 310,922 315,488 318,348 320,664 323,032 328,041 332,431 334,263 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.71 1.66 1.65 1.59 1.58 1.54 1.48 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.48 1.44 1.40 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 98,802 1976.... 113,202 1977 126,905 1978 143,936 1979 154,391 1980 168,129 1981 159,177 1982 r 171,074 1983 154,543 1982: Dec 158,239 1983: Jan 158,081 Feb 161,803 Mar 163,065 Anr 167,965 May June . . . 173,920 July 172,598 175,989 AMS 178,590 Sept 176,790 Oct 181,084 Nov 186,675 Dec r. 1984- Jan p 1 2 3 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,843 85,222 73,495 77,744 77,769 79,595 80,241 82,669 86,582 85,646 87,918 88,970 88,228 92,246 96,152 95748 48,113 53,935 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,852 81,048 80,495 80,312 82,208 82,824 85,296 87,338 86,952 88,071 89,620 88,562 88,838 90,523 175,193 189,195 210,415 241,113 264,114 282,333 264,902 260,832 264,902 262,117 260,856 257,304 257,397 258,149 257,390 258,176 259,834 260,021 260,816 261,018 260,832 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period, End of period. 112,581 121,575 137,834 160,554 174,547 186,222 175,200 171,470 175,200 172,506 171,572 169,377 169,814 170,734 169,840 169,693 170,576 170,385 170,628 170,964 171,470 62,612 67,620 72,581 80,559 89,567 96,111 89,702 89,362 89,702 89,611 89,284 87,927 87,583 87,415 87,550 88,483 89,258 89,636 90,188 90,054 89,362 99,543 115,061 131,616 147,466 156,142 167,924 157,371 173,855 157,382 162,871 157,757 162,587 166,025 169,874 178,489 175,455 178,302 180,961 181,802 185,473 188,505 51,398 61,111 72,409 79,513 79,341 83,725 75,103 87,871 76,180 82,355 77,449 79,951 83,101 84,456 90,905 88,234 89,978 90,996 93,366 96,513 98,157 99,218 12,799 15,291 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,059 20,687 22,859 19,679 20,507 19,175 20,032 22,592 22,228 24,289 21,580 23,028 25,213 26,003 24,575 24,852 24,641 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 2.7 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.1 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.1 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 320 CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 180 180 160 * 160 1976 1983 1977 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p . 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May ,™ June July Am? Sept Get Nov Dec 1984- Jan 1 Finished goods excluding consumer foods Total finished goods 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 283.6 283.8 283.4 283.3 284.1 285.2 285.2 286.3 286.6 287.4 286.9 287.3 289.1 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 259.0 261.1 261.1 263.1 262.0 260.5 259.3 260.2 262.1 265.4 263.8 265.6 272.7 Total Total 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.9 289.6 289.2 288.7 287.9 289.3 291.3 291.8 292.8 292.6 292.5 292.4 292.4 292.3 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Total finished consumer goods 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 333.7 331.3 329.0 332.0 336.0 336.7 337.9 337.9 337.9 337.3 336.6 335.7 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.3 284.1 285.0 285.8 285.9 286.5 287.0 287.5 288.8 288.5 289.6 289.3 290.0 290.4 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 283.4 283.4 282.7 282.6 283.5 284.7 284.6 285.5 286.1 286.8 286.2 286.6 288.7 Consumer goods Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1979. 22 Nondurable Capital equipment Con- sumer foods 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.3 290.9 289.9 288.9 287.7 289.5 292.1 292.5 293.5 293.4 292.7 292.7 292.4 292.0 Durable 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 229.9 232.0 232.6 232.7 233.1 233.8 234.1 234.7 234.4 233.1 233.7 233.8 234.0 Total Foods and feeds * 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 309.8 309.9 309.1 307.9 309.1 311.3 312.2 313.4 315.3 316.6 316.8 317.1 317.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.8 236.7 240.0 240.0 244.8 243.3 242.5 242.1 249.4 261.4 258.4 258.6 257.6 261.1 Crude materials Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 189.4 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.2 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.3 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.3 315.3 315.1 314.2 312.6 314.0 316.4 317.4 318.2 319.5 321.0 321.2 321.6 316.2 318.5 320.2 323.2 321.6 321.1 317.9 325.0 328.8 328.9 330.6 333.8 244.6 249.8 250.8 255.3 250.9 247.1 242.0 251.9 256.2 258.4 259.8 263.8 470.3 466.7 469.7 469.8 474.0 480.5 481.3 482.6 485.2 480.8 483.2 484.9 321.5 336.2 269.6 480.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted (also 0.6 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.1 percent above its level in December 1983. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 ALL ITEMS 220 220 200 200 180 180 160 160 140 140 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total ! Total Renters' costs 2 NSA Rel. imp.5 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Jan....... Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug ...... Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan 100.0 18.7 170.5 181 5 195.4 217.4 2468 272.4 289 1 298.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 303.5 305.2 180.8 192 2 211 4 234.5 2546 274.6 285 7 291.7 288.9 289.1 290.3 291.5 292.1 291.5 291.2 291.7 292.3 293.5 294.1 295.4 300.2 37.6 174.6 1865 2028 227.6 263 3 293.5 314 7 323.1 318.4 318.6 318.3 320.3 321.1 321.9 323.2 324.1 325.3 326.0 327.4 328.1 329.6 21.5 179.0 191 1 2104 239.7 281 7 314.7 337 0 344.8 338.1 338.9 338.8 341.4 342.3 343.3 345.1 346.3 348.0 349.3 350.7 351.8 353.0 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 December 1982 = 100.. 3 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol 4 7.0 103.0 100.8 101.2 101.3 101.7 102.2 102.5 103.1 103.6 104.2 104.6 105.0 105.3 105.7 Homeowners' costs 2 Mainte- NSA NSA 14.0 102.5 100.7 100.9 100.9 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.7 103.0 103.5 103.9 104.3 104.5 104.9 repairs 0.5 199.6 2147 233.0 256.4 2857 314.4 334 1 346.3 342.9 339.4 339.9 343.6 344.3 345.1 346.1 347.9 346.6 351.1 353.4 354.7 356.7 beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, tc. 5 6 Relative importance, December 1983. Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. Fuel and other utilities nance and 8.2 182.7 202 2 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 3508 370.3 367.6 366.6 364.8 366.6 368.4 369.3 370.7 371.9 372.9 372.2 374.4 373.8 378.2 Apparel and upkeep Medical Total » New cars Motor fuel 3 care Ener4 gy All items less food, energy, and shelter 5.2 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 193.4 194.2 194.2 194.7 195.7 196.3 197.3 197.9 198.2 198.2 198.5 198.5 199.0 21.8 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291 5 298.4 293.6 290.6 289.7 293.7 296.4 297.3 298.7 300.8 302.8 304.4 305.5 306.1 306.7 3.5 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 199.5 200.6 201.4 201.4 201.1 201.3 201.7 203.3 204.9 205.5 205.3 205.7 205.6 5.9 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 377.4 360.9 353.5 368.7 379.8 381.0 382.5 383.7 383.7 383.2 381.6 379.8 375.9 6.1 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 3287 357.3 347.1 349.7 351.5 353.1 354.8 356.5 358.5 360.3 361.7 362.9 364.7 366.0 368.6 11.9 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 419.4 409.3 403.6 413.3 420.5 421.6 423.2 424.6 425.1 424.2 424.5 423.3 421.7 47.9 159.9 1695 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 253.1 254.1 254.8 255.7 256.3 257.1 258.4 259.7 260.9 262.2 263.5 264.2 265.8 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1967. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1975 . 1976 1977 1978 . 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983" 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 5.5 -2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.2 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 10.8 4.4 6.5 7.8 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 Change, month to month 1983' Jan Dec -0.7 .1 -.1 -.0 .3 .4 0 .4 .1 .3 -.2 .1 -0.2 .8 0 .8 -.4 -.6 -.5 .3 .7 1.3 -.6 .7 -1.4 -.3 -.3 4 .6 .9 .1 .3 -.0 -.2 0 -.1 01 .3 .3 .0 .2 .2 .2 .5 .1 .4 1 .2 0.3 -1.7 -3.2 4 .4 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.0 3.1 .8 1.0 0.9 2.8 2.3 6.5 1.4 -.9 -5.7 -2.7 2.5 9.7 5.6 5.4 1984- Jan .6 2.7 -.1 .1 2.4 11.5 Feb Mar AmMay June July Augr Sept Oct Nov 19 -6.1 -8.0 43 -'.6 4.5 6.8 5.6 1.8 .3 11 -1.4 3.2 3.1 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 3.2 2.1 3.0 .7 2.1 1.7 1.0 .6 •i -.6 -.3 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 2.0 1.5 0 1.5 2.1 3.7 2.1 .7 .2 -.7 .8 1.8 1.4 4.0 1.7 -.2 -1.2 -3.1 -3.4 -2.0 1.1 2.5 3.1 3.5 2.2 .2 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 2.4 2.7 1.9 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 .7 .6 -1.0 1.1 2.8 10.6 -.3 2.0 1.9 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1979. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Housing Period All items l Pood Total 1 Total1 Renters' costs Addendum: All items, percent Transportation Homeowners' Maintenance and NSA NSA Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total1 New cars Motor fuel 2 Medical care Energy 3 All items less food, •3* shelter From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier Prom year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1975 1976 1977. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 70 4.8 6.8 90 13.3 124 8.9 3.9 3.8 6.5 .6 8.0 11 8 10.2 102 4.3 31 2.6 75 5.4 76 99 15.2 13 7 10.2 36 3.5 73 4.2 87 11 5 17.4 15 1 9.9 24 4.7 5.1 4.5 55 7.1 72 10 1 10.3 106 9.2 4.2 5.0 11 2 9.0 81 59 160 136 14.5 97 1.8 23 4.5 42 32 5.5 68 3.6 16 2.9 98 8.8 43 77 18.2 147 11.0 17 3.9 73 4.8 72 62 7.4 75 6.8 1.6 3.4 11.0 2.6 4.9 85 52.2 189 9.4 6.5 -1.7 91 5.8 6.5 77 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 8.8 88 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 11 6 6.9 7.2 80 37.4 18 1 11.9 1.3 -.5 6.4 7.0 5.2 65 7.2 99 9.4 6.1 5.0 0.9 .7 .5 .5 .5 .5 .6 .5 .4 .3 .5 .4 -2.8 -2.4 -1.4 2.4 1.7 .3 .4 .3 .1 -.2 .1 g 0.5 .4 .3 .4 .2 .3 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 1.2 2.8 4.9 5.4 4.1 3.8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.0 1.4 .7 .8 1.4 2.3 3.3 3.4 4.3 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.8 .7 -.4 .6 5.0 4.8 4.1 99 10.1 Change, month to month 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.. June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan 0.3 -.1 .1 .7 .4 .2 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .2 .6 .2 .2 .4 .2 .4 0.5 .1 — .1 .6 .2 .2 .4 .3 .4 .2 .4 .2 0.7 .2 -.0 .8 .3 .3 .5 .3 .5 .4 .4 .3 0.6 .4 .1 .4 .5 .3 .6 .5 .6 .4 .4 .3 0.7 .2 0 .8 .3 .2 .5 .3 .5 .4 .4 .2 1.5 -1.0 .1 1.1 .2 .2 .3 .5 -.4 1.3 .7 .4 0.1 -.3 -.5 .5 .5 .2 .4 .3 .3 -.2 .6 -.2 0.3 .4 0 .3 .5 .3 .5 .3 .2 0 .2 0 -0.4 -1.0 -.3 1.4 .9 .3 .5 .7 .7 .5 .4 .2 0.4 .6 .4 0 -.1 .1 .2 .8 .8 .3 — .1 .2 -2.3 —4.4 -2.1 4.3 3.0 .3 .4 .3 0 -.1 —.4 -.5 1.6 .5 .3 .4 .4 .6 1.2 .3 .2 -.0 -1.0 0.3 .1 .4 .4 .2 O — .1 1 Includes 2 Includes 3 items not shown separately. direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.4 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 0 €J Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1967. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers fell 1.4 percent in February and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended February 15. INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED 100 100 80 80 60 llll 60 RATION RATION 140 120 140 120 RATIO 100 100 80 80 60 60 ILLi 1976 1977 1978 1982 1981 1980 1979 1983 1984 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100] Prices received by farmers . Period All farm products 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Feb . Mar ATM* . May June July Auir Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb . r Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 102 100 115 132 134 139 133 135 102 100 105 116 125 134 121 129 101 100 124 147 144 143 145 141 95 100 108 123 138 150 157 161 95 100 109 125 139 151 155 159 97 100 108 125 138 148 150 153 107 100 106 107 97 93 85 84 132 134 136 137 134 132 139 136 134 135 140 118 122 127 129 127 126 139 135 134 134 137 146 146 145 144 141 137 139 137 135 135 143 159 159 160 161 161 160 161 162 161 162 163 157 158 159 160 159 159 159 160 159 160 161 151 152 153 153 153 152 153 154 153 154 155 83 84 85 85 83 83 86 84 83 83 86 !38 135 150 149 164 165 162 163 !44 142 r 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. r !56 156 r 88 86 have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Series revised beginning 1982. Source: Department of Agriculture. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS Growth in Ml accelerated in January, while growth in the broader aggregates slowed. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 400 - 400 200 200 1976 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ^REVISED DATA NOT YET AVAILABLE PRIOR TO JANUARY 1983. SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml Period Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) 1983' Jan Feb Mar . Apr May. :. y June 485.1 491.1 July Ausr Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984' Jan p M3 L Debt Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MjMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term EPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors l (end of month) 497 9 2 081 8 506.6 2,102.2 5109 2 117 0 2,489.9 2,517.1 2,532.3 2,550.6 2,571.0 2,593.0 5149 517.4 518.9 521.6 523.0 525.3 2,126.6 2,135.3 2,147.9 2,167.2 2,182.1 2,196.1 2,604.0 2,617.2 2,636.4 2,657.1 2,689.3 2,708.7 5300 2,206.0 2,722.5 496.4 .. M2 2,017.5 2,054.0 2,067.4 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. NOTE.—Money stock series revised to incorporate updated seasonal adjustment factors, benchmark revisions, and for M3 a redefinition to include term Eurodollars held by U.S. residents. Data not yet available prior to January 1983. 26 2,907.0 2,931.1 2,951.7 2,980 0 3,003.3 3,033.1 4,740.3 4,767.4 4,812.5 4,849.7 4,895.8 4,958.1 3,059.7 3,075.1 3,097.7 3,114.5 3,147.8 5,002.2 5,040.6 5,083.7 5,124.8 5,166.2 5,219.0 The nontransactions portion of M2 is now being seasonally adjusted as a whole to reduce distortions caused by substantial portfolio shifts arising from regulatory and financial changes in recent years, especially shifts to MMDAs in 1983. A similar procedure is being used to seasonally adjust the remaining nontransactions balances in M3. See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systems. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Other DePeriod Currency mand depos- its checkable depos- its (OCD) NSA Money market mutual fund balances Gener- al purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small Savings depos- its Large denomination time deposits 1 denomination time deposits * NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA O IT Sav- ings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances omC nm mercial paper 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug....... Sept Oct Nov. Dee....... 1984: Jan" 136.8 138.1 139.1 140.5 141.6 142.4 143.5 144.8 146.0 147.2 148.0 239.6 237.9 238.8 239.5 241.5 243.0 244.5 243.7 243.0 243.6 242.8 243.7 105.7 112.1 115.0 114.7 120.0 121.7 123.4 125.6 126.4 127.2 128.2 128.8 47.8 48.5 48.7 50.8 55.4 56.1 53.1 52.4 53.5 57.0 55.2 56.1 168.2 160.6 154.8 148.2 141.4 140.2 138.7 139.1 137.9 137.5 138.8 138.2 46.0 45.4 44.0 41.3 40.5 39.5 38.6 38.4 38.8 39.8 40.6 40.3 189.9 279.6 321.0 341.4 357.4 368.6 370.5 368.6 369.5 370.5 372.9 376.0 337.7 325.6 322.2 321.9 323.1 322.8 320.7 319.3 317.9 317.1 315.4 312.9 753.7 733.2 727.4 722.6 724.8 737.0 749.0 759.0 773.0 785.5 793.1 149.9 244.5 130.7 58.1 137.9 40.6 380.5 309.8 796.7 135.7 795.2 295.4 298.3 298.0 303.0 304.2 308.6 313.2 315.6 320.7 325.9 39.9 40.4 41.5 42.9 45.6 45.5 44.3 46.9 48.0 47.3 53.4 56.2 82.5 86.0 88.7 91.4 92.3 91.9 92.1 91.9 90.5 87.6 94.1 94.2 332.9 53.3 92.8 307.4 297.1 v 68.0 68.4 68.8 69.2 69.5 69.8 70.1 70.3 70.5 70.7 70.8 191.3 44.4 187.6 189.6 196.4 198.5 206.8 219.6 222.9 221.6 218.2 216.6 42.9 41.8 41.3 41.0 40.6 41.6 43.6 43.8 42.8 43.0 1 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown hei NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. NOTE.—Series revised; see p. 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 113.5 115.1 119.2 122.5 123.4 122.9 124.4 121.0 125.3 125.7 128.2 CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installment credit extended Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982- Dee 1983' Jan Peb Mar Anr May June July Auff Sept Get Nov Dec Total 2 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 334,508 344,901 30,777 Automobile 63,743 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 93,240 95,997 9,716 Installment credit liquidated Revolving Total 2 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 139,829 150,061 12,491 189,179 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,291 331,805 28,359 Automobile 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,745 91,099 8,225 1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Beginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding. 2 Includes "mobfle home" and "other," not shown separately. Revolving 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,362 145,696 11,990 Net change in amount outstanding l Total 2 Automobile 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 18,217 13,096 2,418 2,725 735 2,582 2,271 2,696 4,406 4,840 3,388 2,375 4,885 4,671 6,614 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 8,495 4,898 1,491 625 233 1,221 689 1,313 1,973 2,421 2,521 285 1,772 1,238 2,019 Amount outstanding, end of period, seasonally adjusted Revolving 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,467 4,365 501 68 -135 1,177 917 514 1,210 821 313 479 1,145 1,300 1,723 Total 2 Automobile 190,725 226,646 269,392 307,115 308,137 326,274 339,316 339,316 342,041 342,776 345,358 347,629 350,325 354,731 359,571 362,959 365,334 370,219 374,890 381,504 67,798 82,890 101,863 116,523 116,808 125,323 130,235 130,235 130,860 130,627 131,848 132,537 133,850 135,823 138,244 140,765 141,050 142,822 144,060 146,079 Revolving 16,505 36,427 45,004 53,174 54,650 58,722 62,830 62,830 62,898 62,763 63,940 64,857 65,371 66,581 67,402 67,715 68,194 69,339 70,639 72,362 NOTE.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose again in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 •ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 LOANS AND LEASES 400 400 INVESTMENT N OTHER SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 120 120 80 80 INVESTMENT IN U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES innl III 40 1975 1977 1976 IniiiLn Illlllll 1980 1979 1978 1981 1982 1983 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 3 All commercial banks1 Loans and leases Period 19761977: 19781979: 19801981: 19821983: Dec Dec Dec . Dee Dec . Dec Dec Dec p 1983: Jan Feb Mar Aor May June July AllfiT Sept Oct Nov Dee p 1984: 1 2 3 Total loans and investments Total 2 Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Treasury securities Total Nonborrowed Required Total Seasonal 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 ,042.0 ,131.7 190.9 210.9 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.3 413.1 100.8 99.8 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 188.1 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.2 247.0 35.28 34.51 34.72 774 113 1,428.2 1,436.3 1,450.1 1,460.6 1,474.4 1,488.0 1,499.9 1,513.2 1,520.3 1,532.9 1,548.9 1,566.8 ,045.0 ,048.7 ,056.3 ,059.5 ,063.3 ,070.6 1,080.9 1,091.0 1,096.3 1,104.1 1,115.7 1,131.7 395.2 394.9 396.2 392.9 392.9 395.0 399.2 402.5 402.6 404.7 407.8 413.1 139.8 144.5 151.0 157.8 166.1 171.2 172.9 174.4 176.9 182.3 186.2 188.1 243.3 243.1 242.8 243.4 245.0 246.2 246.1 247.8 247.1 246.5 247.1 247.0 33.29 33.67 34.20 34.51 34.60 35.05 35.19 35.22 35.31 35.32 35.25 35.28 32.76 33.09 33.41 33.50 33.64 33.42 33.74 33.67 33.87 34.47 34.34 34.51 32.74 33.24 33.77 34.03 34.15 34.57 34.69 34.77 34.81 34.81 34.72 34.72 529 582 792 1,009 952 1,636 1,453 1,546 1,441 844 906 774 33 40 53 82 99 122 171 198 190 142 121 113 35.50 34.79 34.89 715 86 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Faculties (DBFs). Other securities 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.0 1,566.8 Jan p 28 Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Investments Data for depository institutions have been revised to incorporate annual revisions to seasonal adjustment factors and, beginning in February 1984, the conversion to contemporaneous reserve requirements (ORB); data not yet available prior to January 1983. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total Internal * Total Total 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 1983 1982: . ... I n in IV 1983- I r r n Capital Credit market funds r TTTp rv Total Other 2 tures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 43.6 -8.0 16.3 36.6 47.7 67.3 38.5 69.7 38.9 30.1 34.5 6.5 22.1 24.3 61.3 68.8 52.8 43.0 160 61.1 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 293.6 346.7 320.1 324.3 250.9 381.2 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 201.6 219.4 221.2 261.6 231.2 260.1 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 127.3 98.9 62.7 19.7 121.1 0.0 6.0 9.0 16.5 23.8 -1.0 13.1 41.6 57.7 46.5 190.1 156.9 210.8 254.1 317.5 345.7 333.2 365.8 308.6 427.6 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 189.5 230.6 240.5 280.8 104.4 37.2 76.6 96.7 141.8 156.9 143.7 135.2 68.1 146.8 72.4 80.5 88.2 90.9 92.2 84.1 85.7 26.3 38.7 38.2 35.8 32.8 20.9 52.4 22.5 45.2 55.6 302.8 329.9 327.4 274.5 233.5 240.2 244.0 244.3 69.3 89.7 83.4 30.2 102.8 89.9 89.0 54.6 24.8 38.6 39.6 77.8 78.0 51.3 49.4 -23.2 -33.4 -.2 -5.6 244 232.1 279.3 270.4 222.0 242.4 242.2 240.1 200.2 -10.3 37.1 30.3 21.8 70.8 50.5 56.9 52.5 339.5 456.0 430.0 485.1 250.7 270.3 294.1 308.2 88.8 185.7 135.9 176.9 68.6 80.7 63.7 129.9 63.3 85.8 36.8 36.6 5.3 -5.1 26.9 93.3 20.1 104.9 72.2 47.1 276.2 410.6 406.2 431.8 202.4 252.9 282.6 302.4 73.8 157.7 123.6 129.4 63.3 45.4 23.9 53.3 69.9 30.7 54.5 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment hi the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total SEC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 QFR-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 . . 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: I n ffl IV 1983- I n m p. 1 Cash U.S. Government securities Notes and accounts receivable Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio * 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 322.1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 .615 .625 .595 .548 .491 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,327.0 1,419.3 1,425.4 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.4 22.4 16.5 16.5 18.9 22.4 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 459.0 506.8 530.3 511.0 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.1 116.0 131.8 154.6 172.6 154.7 157.9 165.3 172.6 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.5 807.3 889.3 976.3 977.8 987.0 988.7 1,007.6 977.8 552.9 554.9 562.7 552.8 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.5 346.5 375.7 417.5 425.0 434.0 433.8 444.9 425.0 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.3 407.5 437.8 442.9 447.6 533.4 531.2 534.2 511.0 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.8 505.1 542.8 585.1 575.2 591.6 587.6 596.5 575.2 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 383.0 460.8 513.6 558.8 552.8 1,418.0 1,417.2 1,441.8 1,425.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 126.9 131.8 144.0 121.8 124.1 126.9 144.0 431.0 428.5 434.2 447.6 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 .505 .492 .454 .458 .437 .433 .431 1.458 1,436.5 1,464.2 1,522.4 139.7 145.7 148.4 25.8 27.5 26.3 517.9 534.3 562.7 573.2 570.5 591.1 179.9 186.2 193.8 986.3 997.7 1,038.6 543.2 551.6 578.8 443.1 446.1 459.9 450.2 466.5 483.7 1.456 1.468 1.466 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. a 8 Other current assets Inventories NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in February. PERCENT PER ANNUM 1976 1983 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills * Constant maturities 2 3-year 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3 & Poor's) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months * 4 Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bank)5 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.029 10.686 8.63 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 8.73 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 7.810 8.130 8.304 8.252 8.19 8.82 9.12 9.39 9.05 8.71 8.71 8.96 8.93 9.03 9.64 9.91 9.84 9.76 9.66 10.32 10.90 11.30 11.07 10.87 10.96 11.13 10.93 11.05 10.46 10.72 10.51 10.40 10.38 10.85 11.38 11.85 11.65 11.54 11.69 11.83 11.67 11.84 9.45 9.48 9.16 8.96 9,03 9.51 9.46 9.72 9.57 9.64 9.79 9.90 9.61 9.63 11.79 12.01 11.73 11.51 11.46 11.74 12.15 12.51 12.37 12.25 12.41 12.57 12.20 12.08 8.15 8.39 8.48 8.48 8.31 9.03 9.36 9.68 9.28 8.98 9.09 9.50 9.18 9.31 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 11.00-10.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 8.87 9.08 9.04 9.13 9.20 10.87 10.96 11.04 11.17 11.63 11.74 11.85 11.97 9.48 9.58 9.58 9.71 9.78 11.97 11.96 12.06 12.22 9.14 9.23 9.35 9.40 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.50 High-low 1983" Jan Feb Mar Apr May . . June July . . Aufir Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Week ended: 1984: Feb 4 11 18 25 Mar 3 1 2 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week. 30 Prime rate charged 5by banks 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 10.79 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 High-low 13.49 13.16 13.41 12.42 12.67 12.36 12.50 12.38 12.54 12.25 12.34 12.42 12.30 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation, COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in February. INDEX, DEC. 31 1965=50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 100 40 40 - 20 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 - 1984 1976 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices l New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965 — 5O) Common stock5yields (percent) 2 Period Composite 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983* Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AujBT Sent Oct Nov Dec 1984' Jan Feb Week ended: 1984' Feb 4 11 18 25 1 Industrial Transportation Utility Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 83.25 84.74 87.50 90.61 94.61 96.43 96.74 93.96 96.70 96.78 95.36 94.92 96.16 90.60 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 95.37 97.26 100.61 104.46 109.43 112.52 113.21 109.50 112.76 112.87 110.77 110.65 112.16 105.44 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 75.65 79.44 83.28 85.26 89.07 92.22 92.91 88.06 94.56 95.41 97.68 98.79 97.98 86.33 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 45.59 45.92 45.89 46.22 47.62 46.76 46.61 46.94 48.16 48.73 48.50 47.00 47.43 45.67 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 85.66 86.57 93.22 99.07 102.45 101.22 99.60 95.76 97.00 94.79 94.48 94.25 95.79 89.95 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,064.29 1,087.43 1,129.58 1,168.43 1,212.86 1,221.47 1,213.93 1,189.21 1,237.04 1,252.20 1,250.01 1,257.64 1,258.89 1,164.46 96.02 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 144.27 146.80 151.88 157.71 164.10 166.39 166.96 162.42 167.16 167.65 165.23 164.36 166.39 157.25 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.79 4.74 4.59 4.44 4.27 4.26 4.21 4.35 4.24 4.25 4.31 4.32 4.27 4.59 93.93 90.59 89.75 89.23 109.20 105.03 104.46 104.12 91.81 86,73 85.36 83.81 47,40 46.45 45.06 44.61 93.57 90.34 89.68 87.81 1,213.06 1,164.91 1,155.30 1,143.32 162.66 156.88 155.94 155.19 4.42 4.62 4.62 4.69 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 8 Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Earningsprice ratio 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.12 7.49 7.98 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $68.8 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $77.8 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 900 900 800 800 700 700 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 400 400 BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) ——~^—^_ * " "" ' ^"^^^ -100 100 200 i 1976 i 1977 i 1978 i ^\__ i i i i 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 onn i 1984 1985 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 .. 1981 1982 1983 1984 (estimates)1 1985 (estimates)1 . Cumulative total first 4 months: Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 1 Budget receipts Budget surplus or deficit (— ) 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 670.1 745.1 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 796.0 853.8 925.5 23 4 -14.8 -4,7 -45.2 -66.4 130 -44.9 -48.8 -27.7 -59.6 57 9 -110.6 195.4 -183.7 -180.4 194.5 211.9 272.4 280.8 77 8 -68.8 Estimates from the Budget of the United States Government, FY 1985, February 1984. 32 Budget outlays Off-budget surplus or deficit (— ) Total surplus or deficit (— ) Federal debt (end of period) Gross Held by the public 81 -7.3 18 -8.7 104 -12.5 -14.2 21 0 -17.3 12 4 -16.2 14.8 234 -14.9 6.1 53 2 -73.7 147 -53.6 592 -40.2 -73.8 789 -127.9 207 8 -199.9 -195.2 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,591.6 1,828.4 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,324.8 1,517.8 15 .6 793 -68.2 1,205.9 1,442.0 997.8 1,201.6 -0.1 1.4 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1984, budget receipts were $17.4 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $8.4 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 100 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 NONDEFENSE 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982 1980 1981 FISCAL YEARS 1984 1983 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget outlays Budget receipts National defense Period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Other Total Total Department of Defense, military International affairs Social security and medicare Health and Net income security inter- 23.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 108.2 116.1 74.1 83.7 93.6 114.2 117.3 129.1 126.4 123.8 128.5 127.6 2 112.2 30.2 33.5 52.5 48.9 Other est Fiscal year or period: 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (estimates) l 1985 (estimates)1 Cumulative total first 4 months: Fiscal vear 1983 Fiscal year 1984 670.1 745.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 293.3 328.4 194.5 211.9 102.4 105.4 8.2 13.5 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 , 122.4 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 40.6 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 66.6 76.5 279.1 298.1 599.3 617.8 600.8 116.1 125.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 324.2 364.5 400.5 448.4 208.4 252.2 270.8 274.6 340.2 576.7 657,2 728.4 796.0 853.8 925.5 84.0 93.1 272.4 280.8 310.2 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, FY 1985, February 1984. 2 Starting in 1985 military retired pay will be financed from a trust fund in the income security function. The national defense function will include accrual charges to pay for retirement benefits earned by currently active duty personnel, and these will be offset in the undistributed offsetting receipts (employer share, employee retirement). In this table the data for the earlier years have not been adjusted to be comparable to this new usage. 491.0 2 237.5 272.0 67.7 73.2 264.4 7.1 5.7 5.0 6.1 6.3 10.9 11.3 10.1 9.0 13.5 17.5 202.5 223.3 240.2 260.3 56.8 69.2 70.1 70.8 76.6 97.6 112.4 119.5 134.9 126.6 2 147.3 65.9 71.1 3.0 4.8 73.0 77.2 46.0 43.2 84.9 87.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.0 182.9 85.6 89.4 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.7 187.4 210.5 205.0 231.0 2 77.5 89.7 104.4 116.6 130.6 150.6 178.7 NOTE.—The Social Security Amendments of 1983 require that social security and medicare be shown in the budget as a separate function. In previous budgets social security was in the income security function and medicare was in the health function. The data in this table have been reconstructed to be comparable for ail years shown. Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1983, Federal receipts fell $7.4 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $13.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $187.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, expenditures rose $15.3 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 700 700 600 600 EXPENDITURES 500 500 RECEIPTS 400 400 300 300 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 -100 -200 -200 1978 1979 1980 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit <-), national income and product accounts 480.8 525.9 610.3 627.8 630.7 222.6 250.4 289.3 310.4 295.3 76.1 69.9 70.5 51.3 54.3 29.1 35.5 53.6 50.3 50.7 153.1 170.0 196.9 215.7 230.4 495.6 576.5 668.1 740.0 816.4 164.1 189.3 218.5 251.0 274.7 201.8 239.4 279.3 310.2 344.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 85.7 40.6 50.7 67.7 82.2 90.6 9.9 10.4 12.5 13.2 20.3 -0.0 .0 .1 -.0 — .4 -14.8 -50.7 -57.8 -112.2 -185.7 Calendar year: 1979 493.6 540.9 1980 1981 627.0 1982 r . . 617.4 1983 643.6 619.5 1982: 1 622.2 n 615.2 m IV 612.6 230.6 257.7 298.6 304.7 295.9 306.5 308.5 300.6 303.0 74.2 70.3 67.5 46.5 59.3 47.6 48.4 47.8 42.1 29.4 39.0 56.4 48.3 54.0 49.5 47.7 47.9 48.3 159.5 173.9 204.5 217.9 234.4 215.8 217.6 218.9 219.3 509.7 602.1 689.2 764.4 826.4 728.0 735.4 773.5 820.9 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 275.2 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 209.2 251.5 286.6 321.1 345.1 302.5 311.2 325.9 344.8 80.5 88.7 87.9 83.9 86.5 82.5 85.1 83.0 85.0 42.4 53.4 73.2 84.9 96.5 79.7 82.3 88.6 89.1 9.2 11.5 12.4 15.8 22.6 13.4 12.7 14.2 22.8 -.0 .0 .1 -.0 -.4 -.1 .0 .0 .0 -16.1 -61.2 -62.2 -147.1 -182.8 -108.5 -113.2 -158.3 -208.2 297.7 304.2 286.9 295.0 48.6 59.8 66.6 48.6 56.0 55.5 55.9 228.5 232.6 236.2 240.2 806.6 818.7 832.5 847.8 273.5 273.7 278.1 275.6 340.3 347.0 343.5 349.6 85.8 86.7 87.2 86.4 88.4 91.8 101.0 104.7 18.6 18.2 22.3 31.4 .0 -L3 -.4 .0 -183.3 -166.1 -187.3 1983: I.; n TTT IY r 623.3 652.6 645.2 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management' and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) Period 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983P 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July > y Augr Sept Get Nov Dee p 1 United States 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147 6 137.4 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 151.8 153.8 155.0 r 155.5 r !564 Canada 152.7 157.8 167.6 165.1 166.6 148.8 149.3 149.2 149.9 151.6 153.3 156.7 158.6 r 160.9 r 164.0 r 165.2 165.6 Japan France 189.7 201.1 215.3 225.2 227.5 228.4 2360 227.3 225.9 231.5 230.6 231.1 233.3 234.0 241.2 241.9 241.4 246.4 247 3 Germany 152 !55 !63 r !61 r !60 r !58 r r 156 156 155 156 160 157 160 160 157 155 160 152.0 154.1 161.5 r 162.0 r 159.2 r 154.7 r r !51.1 !51.5 r r 153.4 r 153.7 r 153.7 r 159.2 r 154.7 r 155.0 r 156.8 157.3 159.2 Consumer prices (unadjusted) Italy 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.7 159.1 1507 150.0 148.9 148.2 141.5 148.5 145.1 146.9 134.9 r !51.1 148.6 r 152.8 1460 United Kingdom 124.2 127.8 132.8 124.1 119.2 121.7 123.6 124.2 122.8 123.0 123.9 121.8 125.4 r 124.3 r 125.2 125.3 125.8 United States l 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 303.5 Canada Japan France Germany 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 r 303.4 321.0 312.5 313.9 317.1 317.1 317.9 321.5 322.9 324.5 324.5 326.5 326.5 327.5 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.2 296.2 304.1 309.7 306.6 305.5 307.5 308.6 312.0 309.7 308.3 307.4 311.4 314.2 312.2 311.4 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 390.1 392.9 396.5 401.8 404.5 406.9 410.4 412.8 416.0 419.2 420.9 422.4 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.3 196.2 202.1 199.8 200.0 199.8 200.3 201.1 201.8 202.6 203.2 203.6 203.6 204.1 204.5 Italy 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 602.7 610.5 616.0 622.2 628.2 632.2 638.5 641.1 649.4 660.4 667.0 670.3 United Kingdom 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 523.5 525.8 526.7 534.1 536.4 537.7 540.6 543.0 545.4 547.3 549.2 550.7 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Information and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International Economic Indicators. Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise imports Merchandise exports * Period Total domestic and foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merchandise trade balance General imports 3 Domestic exports Manufactured goods Total 2 Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) 762 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 148 -1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total (c.Lf. value) 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 7,739 6,200 5,670 11,873 12,002 13,621 22,779 -2,275 21,240 -2,647 22,490 -4,797 3 306 -3,558 -5,783 5,911 4,413 4,655 4,511 5,845 5,562 6,014 6,577 6,445 6,889 5,892 5,334 11,981 12,561 12,672 12,856 13,351 13,249 13,842 13,913 13,377 15,528 15,197 15,016 21,075 19,682 20,387 20,821 22,406 21,852 22,858 23,746 23,477 25,465 24,185 24,033 -2,628 -2,689 -2,774 -3,697 -5,948 -4,016 -5,321 -6,152 -4,788 -7,812 -6,331 -5,268 -3,843 -3,371 -3,696 -4,726 -6,751 -4,893 -6,371 -7,164 -6,221 -8,432 -7,122 -6,735 F.a.s. value Monthly average: 1975* 1976*... 1977* 1978*... 1979* 1980 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 Customs value 1981 1982 . 1983 1983' Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AUP" Sept Get Nov Dee 1984' Jan 19,473 17,683 16,707 19,075 17,256 16,326 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,752 2,793 2,463 12,857 11,643 11,034 21,748 20,329 21,504 17,232 16,312 16,690 16,095 15,655 16,959 16,486 16,582 17,257 17,033 17,063 17,298 16,846 15,970 16,273 15,743 15,275 16,602 16,158 16,195 16,892 16,580 16,664 16,895 2,291 2,203 2,336 2,079 2,003 2,142 2,063 2,046 2,314 2,452 2,605 2,449 2,744 2,406 2,373 2,483 2,332 2,425 2,388 2,745 2,691 2,345 2,270 2,532 11,139 10,787 10,973 10,632 10,375 11,515 11,028 10,882 11,147 11,241 11,277 11,407 20,021 19,015 19,525 19,771 21,514 21,024 21,950 22,782 22,175 24,763 23,179 22,448 18,326 17,847 2,402 2,664 12,097 1,529 1,485 1,568 1,582 1,530 1,479 1,612 1,652 1,456 ,560 ,551 ,587 ,722 ,554 1,550 27 794 -9,468 1 lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balDepartment of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Miliance. tary Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning 'Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade January 1978. 2 balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Seasonally adjusted data for exports and imports (c.i.f.) revised beginning 1983. NOTE.—Imports on e.Lf. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is- 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The merchandise trade deficit increased again in the fourth quarter of 1983, bringing the deficit for the whole year to $60.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* -TO -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMfC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise * Period Investment income 3 2 Net military transactions Net travel and transportation receipts Exports Imports Net balance 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 . 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 237,019 211,217 200,009 -98,185 -124,228 -151,907 -176,020 -212,028 -249,781 -265,086 -247,606 -260,605 8,903 9483 -31,091 -33,966 -27,555 -25,544 28067 -36,389 60596 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,132 72,445 86,243 84,146 -12,564 13 311 -14,217 -21,680 32914 -42,875 52 760 -56,842 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,218 29,570 33,483 27,304 -746 559 1,528 621 -1,778 -2,286 -1,355 179 -2,792 -2,558 -3,565 -3,573 -2,935 -1,434 -598 -2,095 1982: I 55,636 54,996 52,241 48,344 -61,739 -60,850 -65,319 59698 -6,103 -5,854 -13,078 11 354 20,761 22,316 21,569 19,499 -13,824 -14,779 - 14,748 -13,491 6,937 7,537 6,821 6,008 -51 201 54 -26 49,352 48,759 50,429 51,469 -58,221 -63,470 -68,641 -70,273 8 869 -14,711 -18,212 -18,804 17,697 19,027 20,622 -12,608 -13,326 -13,694 5,089 5,701 6,928 516 117 -21 n m IV 1983- I n IV P """.'. 1 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data 3 Receipts Payments for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Net Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services * Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral trans-1 fers Balance on current account 4,598 22,749 4,711 9,205 5,272 -9,894 6,013 -10,340 5,735 4,686 7,172 7,477 8,060 11,523 7,822 -3,177 -4,613 18,136 -4,998 4,207 -4,617 -14,511 -5,106 -15,446 -5,649 -964 -7,056 421 -6,931 4,592 -8,034 -11,211 -208 -561 -557 -769 2,050 1,914 1,906 1,951 2,625 3,236 -4,854 -4,190 -2,061 -1,802 -1,742 -2,431 -935 -1,222 -745 2,114 2,234 2,092 -2,026 -7,832 -9,915 -1,561 -3,587 -1,823 -9,655 -2,061 -11,976 564 1,434 -6,596 -6,621 NOTE.—Merchandise trade data are as revised for 1983 in January issue; other data to be revised later. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $0.5 billion in the third quarter compared to a decrease of $5.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $17.4 billion compared to a $4.0 billion increase in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 -20 -20 -40 40 -60 -60 1984 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capital inflow (+)] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capitiil outflow (— )] Period Total U.S. official reserve assets * 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net * (unadjusted, end of period) 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 4965 -3,474 -35,380 -4,214 -44,498 3693 30717 -4,660 -57,202 3 746 59453 -5,140 -72,757 -5,078 -100,348 -5,732 107 348 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,752 54,922 80,678 87,866 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 13 665 15,566 5,430 3,172 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,416 39,356 75,248 84,694 -31,456 -40,934 -26,099 -19,553 -1,089 -1,132 -794 -1,950 -807 -1,489 -2,502 -934 -29,560 -38,313 -22,803 -16,670 27,124 31,612 17,613 11,517 -3,061 1,930 2,642 1,661 30,185 29,682 14,972 9,855 3,768 7,887 15,082 14,657 -729 881 -1,190 1,042 29,944 30,671 30,993 33,958 -21,699 -658 HP.... -6,429 -787 16 529 -1,053 1 162 -1,188 -19,859 488 -5,770 16,452 10,956 18,487 49 1,973 -3,235 16,403 8,983 21,722 8,833 -644 -82 -212 792 -1,355 34,261 33,876 33,066 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: I n in IV 1983: I n....... -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,331 -86,052 -110,601 -118,045 -849 -2,558 375 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 1,139 1,152 1,093 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 5,897 10,544 — 2023 12,540 25,404 29,556 24,238 41,390 Sources; Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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