Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1983
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98th Congress, 1st Session RESERVE OF CHICAGO Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1983 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1983 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy ($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, B.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $13.2 billion or 1.7 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) fell 1.9 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate. BILLIOh^S OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 3,200 SEASONS LLY ADJUSTED ANNl/AL RATES - ^^~~- 3 000 - 2 800 X 2 6QQ _ CURRENT DOLLA RS IN - 2,400 ^ X 9 nnn 2 600 _j -X^ V 9 9nn - .XI GNP 2,400 2 gQQ ^^ 2 200 9 nnn - S* 1 $?nn 1 800 - i z r\n S ^ 1 600 XI \ 1 4nn -. — -•" ^^* ++** +^* ^^^* I I ,..--' 1 I 1 1 1975 1974 1 400 \ GNP IN 1972 DOLLAR s " 1 9nn \ \ 1 1976 I I i I 1977 I ! I I I 1979 1978 I I i I 1980 I I I I I 1982 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period I II Ill IV r Exports Imports Total Non- defense 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.8 75.2 79.1 578.1 583.2 600.2 626.3 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 143.1 150.5 154.4 166.9 630.1 630.9 651.7 676.7 249.7 244.3 259.0 277.9 166.2 176.2 182.7 189.4 2,864.9 2,901.8 2,980.9 3,003.2 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 31.2 23.7 25.9 23.5 365.4 368.9 367.2 367.9 334.2 345.1 341.3 344.4 2,995.5 3,045.2 3,088.2 3,101.4 1,919.4 1,947.8 1,986.3 2,031.5 414.8 431.5 443.3 392.4 31.3 34.9 359.9 365.8 349.5 321.5 328.6 330.9 342.5 320.7 6.9 .8 National defense 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 257.7 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 1,971.3 0.7 Total 73.1 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.4 153.7 178.6 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 538.4 596.9 647.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Net exports 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.0 341.3 330.7 737.1 812.0 _. , nal Federal 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 339.2 367.3 349.2 1982: :... Goveriiment purch?ises of goc ds and servi ces Exports ar d imports of goods and services 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 -4.0 -1.1 13.2 25.2 26.1 18.5 1981: I II Ill IV 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r Gross private domestic investment 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 420.5 1,185.9 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,633.1 2,937.7 3,057.6 1972 1973 Personal consumption expenditures 101.7 102.0 State and local 341.2 368.0 389.6 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,643.1 2,917.3 3,080.4 73.9 67.7 75.7 83.6 361.1 365.0 370.1 375.7 2,852.7 2,877.2 2,949.1 2,989.9 83.5 68.2 76.3 88.5 380.4 386.6 392.7 398.9 3,031.1 3,061.4 3,083.5 3,145.6 28.5 29.1 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n mr iv Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Ex]ports of goods Cboss privat e dom<sstic invest ment 2ind Govern ment purch ases of goocIs and services service 3 Federal Change dential fixed Residential fixed business inventories 10.2 17.2 11.6 1,185.9 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,474.0 1,502.6 1,476.0 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 930.5 947.6 957.0 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 166.1 172.0 165.5 63.8 62.3 '48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.2 44.9 40.2 1,507.8 1,502.2 1,510.4 1,490.1 951.1 944.6 951.4 943.4 169.7 170.1 173.9 174.2 1,470.7 1,478.4 1,481.1 1,473.9 949.1 955.0 956.3 967.5 172.0 166.7 163.4 160.0 Net exports Exports Total Imports Total 0.7 77.5 97.3 76.7 253.1 101.7 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.6 287.1 291.2 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.5 110.4 116.2 National defense Final Nondefense State and local 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.1 73.5 78.6 28.5 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.8 37.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 178.1 176.7 175.0 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.0 1,493.7 1,484.8 73.1 68.3 151.4 157.4 163.6 1,175.3 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -5.0 9.0 -8.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.6 42.0 30.9 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.2 158.5 147.3 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.6 116.4 116.4 49.6 47.3 42.9 39.9 2.4 12.1 16.5 4.8 48.2 44.2 39.2 36.5 159.3 159.7 157.8 156.9 111.1 115.5 118.7 120.4 286.8 283.9 286.4 291.3 107.9 107.0 110.7 116.0 71.0 72.9 74.3 76.1 36.9 34.1 36.5 39.9 179.0 176.9 175.7 175.3 1,505.4 1,490.1 1,493.9 1,485.3 38.9 40.1 39.5 42.5 -15.4 _4.4 3.4 -18.7 36.9 35.7 27.5 23.3 151.7 154.4 147.5 135.5 114.7 118.7 120.0 112.2 289.2 285.3 291.1 299.2 114.4 110.3 116.2 124.1 74.5 78.2 80.6 81.2 39.8 32.1 35.5 42.9 174.9 175.0 174.9 175.1 1,486.1 1,482.7 1,477.8 1,492.6 6.7 15.5 27.8 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal c onsumption expen ditures Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 Gross national product 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n m ivr. Durable goods Nondurable goods Services 100.0 Exports anc I imports of goods ant . services Residential fixed 100.0 Exports 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 196.3 213.3 103.8 115.4. 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.1 201.3 210.0 100.0 109.1 120.3 100.0 112.7 134.8 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.64 195.51 207.15 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 J88.4 202.7 208.7 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.6 238.0 190.01 193.17 197.36 201.55 189.2 192.6 196.4 199.8 163.0 166.2 169.7 171.3 199.3 201.7 204.2 205.6 189.6 193.4 198.6 203.6 194.5 200.7 203.0 206.8 203.68 205.98 208.51 210.42 202.2 204.0 207.7 210.0 173.0 174.0 176.1 176.1 206.8 207.1 210.0 211.0 207.4 210.6 215.3 219.7 207.6 211.3 210.7 210.5 Imports Total 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.3 167.5 174.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gove rnment pure bases of goc>ds and services Federal Nonresidential fixed 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.2 194.5 206.0 100.00 105.75 115.08 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r Total Gross private domestic investment 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 213.1 231.8 237.1 100.0 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.3 293.1 284.1 229.0 231.7 235.8 239.2 229.3 230.9 232.6 234.5 240.5 238.6 238.8 234.5 237.3 236.8 236.9 237.2 National defense Nondefense State and local 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.4 221.7 100.0 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.4 209.0 227.1 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 181.0 204.2 210.5 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.6 208.2 222.7 300.7 298.7 287.7 286.1 201.2 204.0 207.8 216.0 201.7 206.4 207.9 219.5 200.3 198.9 207.4 209.4 201.7 206.3 210.7 214.3 286.4 278.8 285.4 285.8 218.3 221.6 223.0 223.9 223.0 225.2 226.5 233.3 209.6 212.6 214.9 206.0 217.5 220.9 224.5 227.8 100.0, 106.3 114.9 126.0 100.0 105.6 114.2 128.2 100.0 107.0 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Grc ss national prc)duct Period 8.6 1971 10.1 11.8 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.9 11.6 4.1 19.6 5.3 11.4 3.0 -1.0 6.8 5.8 1.7 1982r 1981: I n in IV 1982: Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars I n ffl IV r Implicit price deflator Personal consumption e xpenditures Chain price index 3.4 5.7 5.0 4.2 5.8 -.6 -1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.4 1.9 -1.8 7.9 -1.5 2.2 -5J -5.1 2.1 .7 -1.9 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.3 9.4 6.0 10.9 6.8 9.0 8.8 4.3 4.6 5.0 3.7 4.9 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 9.0 9.4 6.4 9.3 8.2 9.2 8.4 5.0 4.6 6.0 4.9 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 4.8 8.1 3.7 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.9 9.6 6.2 10.0 8.4 8.9 8.5 4.8 4.1 5.9 4.6 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.6 10.6 6.9 13.0 4.4 11.3 3.4 5.8 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .3 1.8 1.0 4.4 2.7 2.9 3.3 2.5 2.5 .6 4.8 7.6 6.1 8.1 9.4 Chain price index 4.3 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.3 8.6 5.9 8.3 7.3 8.2 7.0 5.0 3.5 7.5 4.4 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.3 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.1 6.0 10.3 7.4 8.0 7.2 5.2 3.6 7.1 5.4 4.2 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.2 9.3 5.8 10.9 7.7 7.6 7.1 4.8 3.2 7.3 5.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cc>st and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1 Gross d omestic product of ilonfinancial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Period Current dollars 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1981: I 1972 dollars 0.940 0.087 881.3 .973 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.787 1.966 856.7 2.077 1.906 1.940 1.987 .091 .092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .200 .222 .249 .211 .218 .224 .236 .242 .247 .251 563.7 609.9 678.0 759.4 599.6 626.8 678.0 818.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,537.7 1,732.3 1,779.2 Total cost and profit 2 731.9 876.1 860.3 n m 1,683.3 1,715.0 1,763.6 1,767.2 883.0 884.2 887.5 870.4 2.030 n m 1,756.6 1,771.0 1,794.4 858.8 857.9 859.3 2.045 2.064 2.088 IV 1982: I Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 0.106 .113 .113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .173 .202 .213 .196 .202 . .203 .208 .205 .211 .214 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. •s. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Compensation of employees 0.631 .641 .659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.211 1.305 1.389 1.267 1.289 1.315 1.349 1.376 1.388 1.392 Corporate profits with inventory valuation iind capital ccmsumption adjustments Net interest Total 0.028 .029 .028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .061 .071 .085 .062 .069 .074 .078 .082 .085 .085 Profits tax liability 0.088 0.045 .099 .107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .143 .165 .142 .170 .161 .171 .159 .140 .134 .146 .047 .049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .075 .072 .047 .081 .069 .074 .063 .045 .043 .049 Profits after tax 4 0.043 .052 .058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .068 .093 .095 .089 .091 .097 .096 .095 .091 .097 Output per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.115 7.450 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 8.002 4.491 4.778 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.024 7.558 8.144 8.217 8.199 8.202 8.970 8.169 8.311 9.891 8.390 10.846 11.650 8.328 8.320 8.324 8.273 10.551 10.727 10.947 11.163 8.279 8.334 8.429 11.391 11.564 11.730 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employeesl Proprietors' income with inventory v iluation and capital co nsumption adjust ments Farm 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n mr Profits ^ith inventory valuation adjustme nt and withou t capital constimption adjust ment Capital consump- Total Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax Total Net interest adjustment 96.6 94.0 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 34.1 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 181.6 190.6 160.5 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 165.3 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 174.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 -9.3 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -17.8 -16.8 -4.8 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 187.7 235.7 265.2 101.8 101.2 100.4 99.5 34.4 34.0 33.6 33.6 200.3 185.1 193.1 183.9 217.6 202.6 210.3 199.4 253.1 225.4 233.3 216.5 -35.5 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 -17.3 -17.5 -17.1 -15.5 217.6 231.6 244.0 249.5 98.6 99.9 101.7 104.9 33.9 34.2 34.6 33.9 157.1 155.4 166.2 167.2 162.2 170.0 171.6 171.7 180.3 -4.4 -9.4 -10.3 -12.9 -10.1 -6.9 -3.8 1.5 258.7 267.5 268.1 266.4 801.3 877.5 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,598.6 1,767.6 1,856.4 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 19.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 101.3 2,293.7 2,324.4 2,387.3 2,404.5 1,718.0 1,750.0 1,789.1 1,813.4 21.6 22.5 27.1 24.6 2,396.9 2,425.2 2,455.6 1,830.8 1,850.7 1,868.3 1,875.9 17.8 17.4 16.6 24.4 IY 1 Nonfarm 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,117.1 2,352.5 2,436.6 718.0 Corporate profits with inv<sntory valuatio n and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 21.0 22.6 58.1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) -6.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] No ndurable goods Durable3 goods Period 1972 Total personal consumption expenditures 737.1 812.0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n mr IV Total durable goods 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment 52.4 57.1 50.4 41.7 47.1 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.4 92.8 Total nondurable goods Food 27.7 31.7 35.1 38.3 42.6 43.7 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 670.4 734.5 762.0 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 343.7 375.3 397.2 16.9 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 55.4 61.4 25.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.7 114.6 118.7 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 87.0 96.8 93.7 Services Other Domestics Imports 9.3 1.6 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 135.0 147.9 152.4 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 782.5 874.1 966.8 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 64.9 71.2 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 1,971.3 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.3 234.6 242.5 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 89.7 98.6 106.0 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 236.9 230.4 241.2 229.6 102.1 94.2 104.0 93.9 93.1 93.3 93.8 93.3 41.7 42.9 43.4 42.4 720.6 729.6 741.3 746.5 368.8 372.1 378.0 382.3 112.3 114.0 115.9 116.0 95.2 96.7 97.7 97.5 144.4 146.9 149.7 150.7 842.4 859.4 886.3 908.3 7.2 5.7 6.8 5.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1,919.4 1,947.8 1,986.3 2,031.5 237.9 240.7 240.3 251.2 103.2 103.3 104.3 113.1 91.0 93.2 92.7 94.4 43.7 44.2 43.3 43.7 749.1 755.0 768.4 775.3 387.9 395.0 401.3 404.8 117.5 118.4 119.1 119.7 95.3 91.3 94.2 93.9 148.4 150.4 153.8 157.0 932.4 952.1 977.6 1,005.0 5.8 5.5 5.5 6.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Other of new Retail sal es passengrer cars (millions of units) SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $0.8 billion (annual rate) in January, following a rise of $6,9 billion in December. Wages and salaries rose $16.5 billion in January, compared with an increase of $7.0 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,800 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,400 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 3,200 1,000 1,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 600 600 OTHER INCOME .3— 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS „„..«•»" 200 200 160 160 120 120 ii I i 1975 1976 1979 1978 1977 1980 1981 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal income Proprietors ' income 3 salary disbursements 1 Other labor income 12 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982r. 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 2,570.6 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.1 1,493.9 1,560.6 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 127.2 140.4 153.8 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 19.1 65.4 23.0 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 101.3 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 34.1 29.9 36.5 123.2 132.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 55.9 62.5 67.0 1982: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oet r Novr. Dec r 2,499.1 2,513.8 2,518.6 2,535.5 2,556.2 2,566.3 2,588.3 2,592.0 2,597.2 2,611.4 2,631.2 2,638.1 1,535.7 1,546.6 1,542.6 1,546.6 1,560.4 1,562.9 1,569.5 1,570.3 1,570.1 1,571.5 1,572.2 1,579.2 148.0 149.1 150.2 151.3 152.5 153.6 154.6 155.5 156.5 157.2 157.9 158.7 19.9 17.3 16.3 16.9 17.3 18.0 17.3 16.6 16.0 17.1 28.1 28.0 98.6 98.4 98.8 99.3 100.3 100.2 100.9 101.7 102.5 104.2 105.3 105.3 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.4 32.5 2,638.9 1,595.7 159.5 19.0 105.4 35.2 1983: Jan 1 p The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 152.8 179.4 218.7 263.4 329.0 371.8 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.2 336.3 374.7 50.4 55.5 61.1 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.9 111.7 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,117.3 2,364.1 2,519.4 65.6 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.6 67.3 67.7 68.4 68.9 69.3 355.5 359.8 363.8 368.0 372.0 376.0 377.6 378.3 378.8 378.0 377.2 376.4 352.4 353.8 357.5 363.9 364.8 366.9 379.7 380.2 383.3 392.7 399.4 401.4 110.3 110.9 110.6 110.8 111.6 111.7 112.4 112.5 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.7 2,448.6 2,465.5 2,470.8 2,486.8 2,506.9 2,516.0 2,538.5 2,542.8 2,548.5 2,561.5 2,570.1 2,576.9 69.7 375.6 395.1 116.4 2,586.6 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income was virtually unchanged in the fourth quarter of 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) H 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 p 4,000 3,000 3,000 1982 1974 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Equals: personal income Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Per c apita disposable personal incc>me Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of dol] ars 1974 1975 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r. 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 2,570.6 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.3 386.7 397.2 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,824.1 2,029.1 2,173.4 Per capitai personal consulnption expem litures Current dollars 1972 dollars 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 106.2 130.2 142.7 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,012 8,827 9,366 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,472 4,538 4,547 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Popula(thousands) 2 Per cent Do lars 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,717.9 1,898.9 2,030.7 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income ADVISERS 4,152 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,323 8,018 8,495 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,087 4,123 4,124 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.9 1.5 .2 7,858 7,926 8,120 8,167 4,152 4,115 4,134 4,088 4,104 4,121 4,116 4,154 2.9 -.3 3.7 .2 8.5 213,898 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.4 6.6 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,654 229,872 232,053 5.4 6.1 6.5 7.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.1 229,053 229,539 230,145 230,751 231,246 231,724 232,320 232,921 Seas anally adju sted annual rates 1981: I II m IV 1982: I II Ill IV r.... 2,330.0 2,380.6 2,458.2 2,494.6 2,510.5 2,552.7 2,592.5 2,626.9 371.2 384.2 398.1 393.2 393.4 401.2 394.4 399.7 1,958.7 1,996.5 2,060.0 2,101.4 2,117.1 2,151.5 2,198.1 2,227.1 1,852.8 1,874.5 1,925.7 1,942.7 1,977.9 2,007.2 2,046.1 2,091.6 105.9 122.0 134.4 158.6 139.1 144.3 152.0 135.5 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 8,551 8,698 8,951 9,107 9,155 9,285 9,461 9,562 4,519 4,516 4,557 4,559 4,527 4,552 4,555 4,554 8,300 8,406 8,550 8,722 -2.8 2.2 .3 -.1 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1982, according to revised estimates, gross farm income rose $7.9 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $7.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 200 f (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) I 200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME 20 20 V A 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come of farm ope rators from farming (iross farm income Period Total l Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 r 1982 1980: I rr n ..r mr IV 1981: I r r n r ffl IV r 1982: F r nr mr IV Livestock and products Crops Production expenses Value of inventory changes 2 Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 25.2 18.7 18.4 26.7 32.4 20.1 25.1 20.4 15.6 11.0 10.2 -4.3 5.5 .2 75.8 83.3 90.2 100.6 119.0 130.5 141.6 144.4 68.6 69.9 74.3 74.0 -1.4 -4.2 -6.0 5.6 125.7 128.7 132.0 135.4 22.9 16.5 21.2 20.0 9.7 6.7 8.5 7.8 67.9 69.4 71.0 65.7 74.6 72.9 75.7 76.8 2.5 5.3 7.2 7.0 139.0 141.0 143.2 143.2 22.8 23.7 28.3 25.6 8.7 8.8 10.2 9.1 67.4 70.1 70.4 69.4 77.0 74.3 72.8 74.7 .5 .5 .3 .5 143.8 144.3 144.6 144.8 20.7 18.7 17.3 25.0 7.3 6.5 5.9 8.5 101.0 101.9 108.6 127.3 151.3 150.6 166.8 164.8 88.9 95.4 96.2 112.5 131.7 139.5 143.5 144.0 43.1 46.3 45.8 49.0 47.6 58.8 68.6 67.8 68.5 69.3 48.6 53.7 63.1 71.7 75.0 74.7 148.6 145.2 153.2 155.4 135.3 134.3 143.6 144.8 66.7 64.4 69.3 70.8 161.8 164.7 171.5 168.8 142.5 142.3 146.7 142.5 164.5 163.0 161.9 169.8 144.4 144.4 143.2 144.1 *Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). 17-174 0 - 8 3 - 2 Net farai income Gas h marketing reee pts 3.4 -2.4 1.0 1.1 5.6 Note.—Seasonally adjusted net farm income in 1967 dollars revisei Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. 13.6 14.9 8.2 9.2 7.1 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1982, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $8.6 billion (annual rate) from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $3.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 280 120 120 80 80 40 40 1974 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Pr 3fits (before t ax) with inve ntory valuation adjustmen t 1 Profits after ta X Doinestic indust •ies Nonfinaneial Period Total 2 Total Financial Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 165.3 r I II Ill IV 1982: 1 2 I II Ill IV r 217.6 202.6 210.3 199.4 167.2 162.2 170.0 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 169.1 184.6 149.1 193.8 181.7 189.3 173.7 150.3 144.1 153.7 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 29.2 22.7 22.5 26.8 22.7 20.8 20.4 20.0 22.2 24.2 3 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 140.0 162.0 126.6 167.0 159.0 168.5 153.3 130.4 121.9 129.5 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Manufacturing Profits before tax Tax liability 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 41.6 49.0 51.6 Whole sale and retail trade 40.7 13.4 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 74.5 86.3 59.3 90.3 88.9 92.2 73.7 57.7 56.6 62.7 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 24.6 33.4 27.9 33.0 32.1 33.0 35.7 31.9 26.8 27.4 3 252.7 242.4 232.1 174.6 253.1 225.4 233.3 216.5 171.6 171.7 180.3 Total 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.7 81.2 58.5 91.5 79.2 82.4 71.6 56.7 55.3 60.9 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 157.8 150.9 116.1 161.6 146.2 150.8 144.9 115.0 116.3 119.4 Dividends 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.1 65.1 70.3 61.5 64.0 66.8 68.1 68.8 69.3 70.5 72.4 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 34.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 99.7 85.8 45.9 100.1 82.2 84.0 76.9 46.1 47.0 48.8 Inventory valuation adjustment -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 -9.3 -35.5 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 -4.4 -9.4 -10.3 -12.9 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1982, business fixed investment declined $7.3 billion (annual rate) from its third quarter level and residential investment outlays rose $5.5 billion. There was a $44.2 billion decrease in inventories following a $4.7 billion increase in the third quarter. BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DO LLARS 550 550 SEASONA AL RATES LLY ADJUSTED ANNU ACf) 450 ' GROSS PRIVAT E DOMESTIC ^x~*~X. ^^ ^^* INVEST/ \rtENT ^- ^^"x ^^ \^^ \ X^^ OCA ^^ OCrt "*"*" +++* /^ +** 300 300 250 NONRESIDENT AL ^^^' -FIXED INVESTMml^++ 200 250 ^ /"^ , X—r ^ *** RESIDENT IAL FIXED INVES TMENT 150 \ JJ 100 150 *^ 1-I,»^**"* 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENT DRIES / 50 ,..,...% Q ^"""""" <* ' ».,,,^ **-^,, '""**" \......t^ I 50 I I 1974 I I i I I I 1976 1975 I I 1977 I i i I I I x.,..../ I I 1979 1978 50 "\ S"*" I i \ 1980 «.< I I f: / \ V* % i i r* -50 1982 1981 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT O F COMMERCE Q ' COUNCIL C)F ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross private domestic investment Nonresic ential fixed in1vestment Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Change iii business mven ;ones Residential fix ed investment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982r. 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 420.5 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248.9 290.2 309.2 346.1 347.6 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.5 129.7 141.4 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 198.6 216.4 206.2 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 103.2 104.9 95.8 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.3 99.7 90.1 0.7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 10.0 20.5 22.8 9.6 15.2 16.0 -10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 -5.7 15.0 -23.1 1981: I II Ill IV 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 330.0 341.3 353.0 360.2 119.6 127.0 132.7 139.6 210.4 214.3 220.2 220.6 113.6 109.5 101.2 95.5 109.1 104.7 95.6 89.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 12.2 24.6 31.8 13.2 10.0 19.3 24.6 6.0 1982: 414.8 431.5 443.3 392.4 357.0 352.2 344.2 336.9 141.4 143.6 141.3 139.2 215.6 208.6 203.0 197.7 93.4 95.5 94.3 99.8 87.9 89.6 88.7 94.1 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 -35.6 16.2 4.7 -44.2 -36.0 -15.0 3.7 -45.3 I n m IVY. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department October-December surveys, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 0.5 percent below 1981 and spending in 1983 is expected to be 1.3 percent below the 1982 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 400 400 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 300 40 40 30 30 1975 1976 1981 1980 1979 1982 1983 _]/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plan t and equip tnent Period Total Plant M anufacturin g Equipment Total Starts of plant and Nonmanu facturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Mining Trade and services l Communication and other 2 ment projects, manufacturing 3 21.80 56.51 59.38 77.40 88.16 112.98 123.32 135.19 Transportation Public utilities 8.68 8.89 46.23 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 86.42 86.86 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 41.43 40.96 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 4 1983 4 157.71 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 319.99 315.69 65.21 71.20 80.31 92.70 105.73 117.55 133.46 92.50 100.25 117.77 138.54 164.73 178.08 188.04 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 122.67 119.52 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 57.95 57.35 28.59 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 64.72 62.18 102.79 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 197.32 196.16 6.10 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 16.05 16.45 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.80 11.92 19.98 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.62 39.98 1981: III IV 328.25 327.83 136.40 136.67 191.85 191.17 130.11 126.91 62.58 60.78 67.53 66.14 198.13 200.92 17.55 16.81 11.61 13.12 39.55 39.74 87.55 88.33 41.89 42.92 33.33 33.68 1982: I II Ill IV4 327.72 323.22 315.79 315.21 139.49 137.95 135.14 188.23 185.28 180.65 128.32 123.77 119.46 120.50 60.84 59.03 57.14 55.80 67.48 64.74 62.32 64.70 199.40 199.46 196.33 194.71 17.60 16.56 14.63 15.56 11.99 12.32 11.28 11.82 40.12 41.40 43.38 41.66 87.80 88.85 87.31 82.01 41.89 40.33 39.73 43.65 27.73 29.03 25.61 1983: I4 II 4 316.40 320.00 121.43 123.42 57.90 58.30 63.54 65.12 194.97 196.58 16.18 17.33 10.63 11.66 40.76 40.30 85.87 85.87 41.53 41.43 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October-December 1982, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment was about unchanged in January and unemployment fell 590,000. MILLIONS Of PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* *16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Period Civilian employment population including resident Armed Forces 1978* 1979 1980 1981 1982 160,689 163,541 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan 172,991 173,153 173,338 173,512 173,691 173,854 174,038 174,200 174,360 174,549 174,718 174,864 175,021 1977 Civilian jmployment Total Noninstitu- 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 force including resident Armed Forces Civilian labor force 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 100,665 99,009 102,251 104,962 10,183 10,378 10,290 9,957 9,957 10,886 11,036 10,710 10,695 10,942 11,476 11,628 12,517 111,193 111,532 111,653 111,916 112,553 112,320 112,596 112,810 113,056 112,940 113,222 112,794 112,215 TT ployment 103,882 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 Total AgriTotal 92,017 96,048 98,824 106,940 99,303 108,670 100,397 110,204 99,526 3,283 109,034 109,364 109,478 109,740 110,378 110,147 110,416 110,614 110,858 110,752 111,042 111,129 110,548 3,379 3,367 3,367 3,356 3,446 3,371 3,445 3,429 3,363 3,413 3,466 3,411 3,412 3,387 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. 88,734 92,661 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 Part-time f__ economic reasons * Total 1 *> weeks __ j over 3,369 6,991 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 2,285 3,485 9,346 9,669 9,881 10,256 10,384 10,466 10,828 10,931 11,315 11,576 11,906 12,036 11,446 2,402 2,750 2,962 3,080 3,267 3,517 3,569 3,637 3,856 4,167 4,524 4,732 4,634 1,942 1,414 1,241 1,871 Laboi force participa tion rate (per oent) Total 2 r\\ •] ian 3 62.6 63.5 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 62.3 63.2 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.5 64.3 64.4 64.5 64.5 64.4 64.5 64.5 63.6 63.8 63.8 63.9 64.2 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.2 64.2 63.8 Seasonallyr adjusted € nadjusted 97,831 97,946 98,471 98,858 99,957 100,683 101,490 101,177 99,851 99,825 99,379 98,849 97,262 Unemp oyment Nonagiicultural 99,688 99,695 99,597 99,484 99,994 99,681 99,588 99,683 99,543 99,176 99,136 99,093 99,103 96,309 96,328 96,230 96,128 96,548 96,310 96,143 96,254 96,180 95,763 95,670 95,682 95,691 5,066 5,489 5,611 5,750 5,731 5,561 5,577 5,820 6,495 6,403 6,411 6,425 6,845 64.1 'Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Beginning with January 1983 Economic Indicators, noninstitutional population, total labor force, and total participation rate include resident Armed Forces rather than total Armed Forces. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for all civilian workers was 10.4 percent in January, down from 10.8 percent in December. The new overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, was 10.2 percent in January, compared with 10.7 percent in December. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) ADJUSTED) 20 TEENAGERS (16-19) WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER \ -MEN 20 YEARSAND OVER I 111111111 1983 1980 1979 1982 1981 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemplojnnent rate percent of (jivilian labor force in grou P) Period Unemployment rate, all workers l By civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 5.2 7.0 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 17.8 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 6.2 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 13.1 11.9 11.3 13.1 14.2 Both sexes 16-19 years White 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 Oct Nov Dec 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.8 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 21.7 22.3 21.9 22.8 22.9 22.5 23.9 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.5 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.7 Jan 10.2 10.4 9.6 9.0 22.7 9.1 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 1 7.1 6.1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reas( cent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 By race All 6.9 6.0 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983: By sex and a ge Black and other Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present selected gro ups Women who maintain families 17.3 6.6 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 9.4 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 15.5 16.0 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.8 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.7 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.8 19.0 10.1 7.1 Full-time workers Part-time workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 6.6 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.4 10.4 10.8 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.0 11.7 12.4 11.3 12.5 13.2 8.4 8.5 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.8 9.7 10.4 10.0 10.8 10.5 10.0 11.2 10.4 10.6 10.3 11.3 11.1 9.9 9.9 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.2 10.3 10.6 11.7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7.6 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In December and January, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for more than 15 weeks continued to rise, and the percentage out of work for less than 15 weeks fell again. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 DURATION OF UNEAAPLOYAAENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JJOB c y^ /x . 50 40 30 LOSERS ,-v /r 40 - REENTRANTS 30 \ y%20 20 NEW ENTRANTS JOB LEAVERS 0 Li 1979 1983 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] TT Period ployment (thousands) Percent listribution of unemplo]fment by durat ion l Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over State progr ams yment by Percent distribution of unemplo reas o n 1 Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 1Weekly ave rage, thousarids 46.2 48.1 43.1 41.7 36.4 31.0 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 12.4 11.5 1982 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 13.8 13.6 16.0 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 9,346 9,669 9,881 10,256 10,384 10,466 10,828 10,931 11,315 11,576 11,906 12,036 41.1 39.6 38.7 38.3 37.2 34.3 36.7 36.0 35.1 33.9 32.9 32.9 33.1 31.9 31.3 31.7 31.5 32.3 30.1 30.7 31.1 30.2 29.5 28.3 13.0 15.4 16.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.6 16.0 16.8 18.2 17.4 1983: Jan 11,446 30.8 28.9 16.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 2,645 2,592 3,837 3,410 11.4 11.5 10.8 10.7 11.2 10.4 11.3 11.9 11.3 11.0 10.4 10.7 3,577 3,582 3,775 3,982 3,972 4,011 3,988 4,136 4,379 4,615 4,635 4,428 563 529 574 573 579 560 539 617 654 659 618 546 4,681 4,723 4,892 4,760 4,387 4,328 4,495 4,398 4,282 4,391 4,635 5,078 10.4 3,941 509 51.7 51.6 58.7 29.9 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.6 15.7 17.4 16.6 16.8 17.8 19.1 19.4 21.3 56.5 54.9 57.2 57.6 57.3 59.0 58.3 58.6 60.7 62.4 61.6 60.6 9.1 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.9 23.0 23.8 23.0 22.9 23.1 22.7 22.8 22.2 21.2 19.8 21.3 21.8 23.5 59.1 7.4 23.1 41.7 42.9 1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3,350 3,048 346 388 488 460 14.3 11.7 11.2 7.9 10.4 14.1 3 14.3 2,359 2,434 807 897 708 936 Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 339,000 in January, after falling in December for the seventh consecutive month. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 22 _,—* ^ r^r=r— \i 90 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 0 ALL NON AGRICULTUR/ 20 ESTAl LISHMENTS - SERVICES ~ 70 T - GOVERNMENT | SE RVICE-PRODU CING 60 INDUSTRIE S - MANUFACTURING 20 50 - 40 - GOODS-P RODUCING INDlJSTRIES 30 CONSTRUCTION \"•""•«««...« 20 11 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 K 1979 1981 1980 ' ' ' '1983 ' ' <P 1982 1979 1980 1981 1982 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted] Service-p reducing indiistries Goods- 3roducing inc .ustries Period 1980 1981 1982" Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec p 1983: 3&np .... fl Manufacturing Total 2 Construction 89,823 90,406 91,105 89,628 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,481 23,881 4,229 4,463 4,346 90,460 90,459 90,304 90,083 90,166 89,839 89,535 89,312 89,264 88,877 88,750 88,535 88,874 86,697 1978 1979 1982: Total nonagricultural employment Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Wholesale and retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal State and local 12,187 12,117 11,113 8,280 8,098 8,056 7,735 61,113 63,363 64,748 65,625 65,746 4,923 5,136 5,146 5,157 5,058 20,192 20,310 20,551 20,550 4,724 4,975 5,160 5,301 5,350 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,592 19,000 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 19,517 19,454 19,319 19,169 19,115 18,930 18,813 18,672 18,572 18,325 18,181 18,129 11,622 11,575 11,490 11,375 11,332 11,203 11,133 10,993 10,900 10,666 10,550 10,523 7,895 7,879 7,829 7,794 7,783 7,727 7,680 7,679 7,672 7,659 7,631 7,606 65,776 65,828 65,854 65,794 65,911 65,845 65,695 65,655 65,734 65,638 65,669 65,560 5,125 5,115 5,100 5,094 5,101 5,078 5,044 5,025 5,031 5,007 4,992 4,984 20,630 20,670 20,655 20,584 20,652 20,595 20,615 20,550 20,492 20,441 20,425 20,306 5,326 5,326 5,336 5,335 5,342 5,352 5,359 5,360 5,367 5,357 5,363 5,373 18,831 18,867 18,904 18,929 18,963 18,988 19,042 19,048 19,084 19,074 19,135 19,141 2,741 2,737 2,736 2,730 2,728 2,739 2,737 2,739 2,731 2,740 2,745 2,761 13,123 13,113 13,123 13,122 13,125 13,093 12,898 12,933 13,029 13,019 13,009 12,995 18,158 10,540 7,618 65,761 4,973 20,549 5,401 19,170 2,751 12,917 4,176 3,912 20,505 21,040 20,285 20,173 18,848 24,684 24,631 24,450 24,289 24,255 23,994 23,840 23,657 23,530 23,239 23,081 22,975 3,966 3,974 3,934 3,938 3,988 3,940 3,927 3,899 3,883 3,856 3,854 3,812 23,113 3,927 12,274 12,760 8,231 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 Total Transportation and public utilities 19,542 2,753 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,253 13,050 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross hourly earn ings Average weeklj hours Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural l Period Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981... 1982* 36.5 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 40.0 -^9.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 1982: Janr Febr Marr Apr r Mayr Juner Julyr Augr Sept r Oet r Novr Decr. 34.4 35.0 34.9 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 37.6 39.4 39.0 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.2 39.0 38.8 38.8 38.9 38.9 1983: Janr 35.2 39.7 1974 . Total private nonagrieultural l Overtime 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 39.8 38.9 Manufacturing Adjust ?d hourly earnings index— total private nonagnc ultural 2 Percent chang e from a year earlic3 r 4 5 Ind ex, 1977 -100 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 $4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.67 $4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.50 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.1 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.4 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.3 7.52 7.53 7.54 7.59 7.65 7.67 7.71 7.74 7.72 7.77 7.79 7.83 8.38 8.34 8.37 8.44 8.48 8.52 8.56 8.57 8.56 8.56 8.61 8.62 144.9 145.0 145.4 146.3 147.7 148.1 148.9 149.9 150.1 150.8 151.2 152.1 93.1 93.1 93.5 93.7 93.6 92.9 92.8 93.1 93.2 93.2 93.5 94.3 7.86 8.66 152.7 94.7 80.0 Current dollars 98.3 97.6 99.0 8.0 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.0 9.0 9.1 6.8 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.0 5.4 1977 dollars -2.8 — .7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .8 .1 .1 .6 .8 .8 .2 .8 .8 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.1 1.8 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAIi INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent cl lange from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Avera ge gross weekly eaumngs Period Manufacturing Total private nonagnc ultural * Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 Construction Wholesale and retail trade Current dollars $154.76 163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 266.92 $190.12 184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 167.87 $176.80 190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.65 $249.25 266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 398.52 425.41 $119.02 126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.95 198.42 1982: Janr Febr Marr. Apr r Mayr Juner Julyr Augr Septr. Oet r Nov r Dec1". 258.69 263.55 263.15 264.89 267.75 267.68 269.08 269.35 268.66 269.62 270.31 272.48 166.15 169.16 169.12 169.69 169.78 167.93 167.76 167.40 166.77 166.53 167.17 168.82 315.09 328.60 326.43 329.16 331.57 333.98 335.55 334.23 332.13 332.13 334.93 335.32 405.50 420.71 420.29 421.77 432.75 423.57 430.03 428.46 420.78 425.07 422.60 434.90 193.05 195.20 195.23 195.89 198.40 198.42 198.74 199.69 200.63 201.61 201.61 203.84 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.6 3.7 6.2 4.8 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.4 4.4 1983: Janr 276.67 171.53 343.80 459.02 204.15 7.0 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982" 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 1 Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 2 3 1977 dollars Current dollars 5 4.1 -3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.3 4.1 -1.1 -1.6 -1.7 -1.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.4 -.9 -1.4 -1.1 .5 3.3 Based on unadjusted data. Note:—Seasonally adjusted data in 1977 dollars revised beginning 1967. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 17-174 Q - 8 3 - 3 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output p(3r hour of allpe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Outj3Ut 1 Business sector Hours of 2all pers m s Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compens ation per hotir 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implici t price 5 defla tor Unit labor Real com pensation per h our 4 CO st Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 19rr7 = 100; quarterly c ata seasormlly adjus ted 86.5 79.0 78.8 92.5 91.1 54.2 54.8 89.6 90.6 63.4 63.4 63.2 63.3 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.8 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 53.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 91.5 93.5 96.6 97.8 96.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.6 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.3 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.2 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 108.7 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 119.1 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.8 96.3 98.9 100.0 100.9 99.4 96.8 99.0 100.0 100.9 99.2 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.6 90.5 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 r, 98.9 100.7 101.0 98.5 99.9 100.0 106.2 108.9 106.4 106.3 108.6 105.9 107.4 108.2 105.4 108.0 108.7 105.9 131.4 144.1 154.5 130.9 143.6 154.0 96.7 96.0 97.0 96.3 95.7 96.7 132.9 143.1 152.9 133.0 143.8 154.0 128.3 140.4 148.1 128.3 140.8 149.0 100.7 100.7 101.0 100.2 100.4 100.0 100.0 99.1 109.1 109.1 109.6 107.8 109.2 109.0 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.3 108.5 107.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 108.1 140.0 142.5 145.6 148.2 139.5 142.0 145.1 147.7 96.2 96.4 95.7 95.6 96.0 96.0 95.4 95.3 139.0 141.5 144.2 147.9 139.0 141.9 145.1 149.0 136.5 138.8 141.9 144.6 136.5 138.9 142.3 145.5 100.0 100.3 101.2 102.2 99.2 99.4 100.3 100.8 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.2 106.0 106.1 106.3 105.3 106.3 106.1 105.4 103.9 106.8 106.7 106.0 104.5 150.9 153.4 155.7 157.8 150.4 152.7 155.1 157.2 96.5 97.1 96.8 97.5 96.3 96.6 96.4 97.1 150.9 152.9 153.8 154.4 151.6 153.5 154.7 156.1 146.0 147.5 149.1 150.1 146.6 148.1 149.8 151.4 1969 85.5 1970 1971.... 1972 1973 1974 1981: I II Ill IV 1982: I II in r IV .... & Pei•cent chan ge; quarte rly data at seasonal!y adjusted annual rates 1969 0.2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 .8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 r 1982 . 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.2 7.0 6.5 1.5 1.1 6.7 6.8 4.9 4.7 .3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 .8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.0 1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.1 1.6 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 1.3 -.4 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 — 1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.2 2.9 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 -.9 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 1.3 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 -2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 — 4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.2 — 4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.5 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.7 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.3 .5 2.6 1.2 .9 — 1.4 .4 2.2 1.0 .9 -1.7 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.7 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.0 5.7 7.1 8.8 -.7 1.8 .4 -.9 1.4 .1 1.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 2.2 2.4 -.7 .7 2.6 .7 .7 -2.6 10.4 9.6 7.2 10.2 9.7 7.3 2.8 -.7 1.0 -2.9 _,7 1.1 11.2 7.7 6.9 11.2 8.1 7.1 9.4 9.5 5.5 10.2 9.7 5.8 1980: III IV 2.6 2.0 3.4 3.1 2.1 6.8 2.7 7.8 -.5 4.7 -.7 4.6 10.1 9.4 10.4 9.8 2.2 -3.1 2.5 -2.8 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 10.0 9.3 8.6 8.9 1981: I II Ill IV 5.6 .0 1.1 -2.9 4.9 -1.3 -.3 -3.5 7.9 -.1 1.9 -6.4 7.2 -.8 .3 -7.1 2.1 _.l .8 -3.6 2.2 .5 .6 -3.7 11.7 7.5 9.0 7.4 11.8 7.1 9.0 7.3 .2 .5 -2.6 __.4 .4 .1 -2.6 -.5 5.7 7.5 7.8 10.6 6.6 8.6 9.3 11.2 11.6 6.6 9.3 8.0 12.1 7.1 10.2 9.2 1982: I II IIP IV r.... -1.0 1.4 3.6 4.1 .6 .8 3.5 2.0 -5.5 .6 1.1 -1.7 -4.2 .6 .7 -3.6 -4.5 -.8 -2.4 -5.6 -4.7 — .1 -2.7 -5.5 7.3 6.9 6.1 5.6 7.7 6.1 6.6 5.6 3.9 2.2 -1.4 2.9 4.3 1.4 -.9 2.9 8.4 5.5 2.4 1.4 7.1 5.2 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.4 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.9 4.3 1 Output 2 -0.3 refers to gross domest ic product ori ginating in th e sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons privatee industry engaged including proprietors oprietors and ector, includi per sons in privat ig hours of pi en|raged in the ssector, unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index. 16 5 Curr ent dollar gro ss domestic p roduct divide( bv constant dollar gross ( omestic prodiict. M^^,^ NOTE.—ata reate to a persons engage n te sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore mav differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. mree: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PBODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.9 percent in January following a 0.1 percent increase in December. The index for January was 3.2 percent below its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* TOTAL IhJDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIC )N 180 180 (RATIO SCALE) UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 -^•^ 1 UTILITIES Vi•-> KX_ ^V^ 140 *\ I 140 MINING 120 120 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 I.M.I. .1.1 1979 1980 1 1111111111 11111111111 1981 1 1 II l l HI 1982 II 1983 100 1979 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1980 1981 1982 1983 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 80 70 120 60 1979 1979 1983 1980 1981 1982 1983 * SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Seasonally adjusted] Total induj trial produ ction Period Index, 1967 = 100 1967 proportion 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982r 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r 1983: Jan p 1 2 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes. Percent change from year earlier 100.00 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 140.7 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.2 138.7 138.8 138.4 137.3 135.7 134.8 135.0 136.2 Capacity u tilization rate , percent * Industry proc uction indexes , 1967 = 100 Manufa cturing Manufacturing Mining Total 87.95 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 -7.1 -5.9 -6.8 -7.7 -8.8 -9.3 -9.8 -9.9 -9.4 9.0 -7.9 -5.9 -3.2 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 138.5 140.9 140.1 138.7 137.9 137.7 138.1 138.0 137.1 135.0 134.0 134.2 135.4 Durable 51.98 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 127.1 129.3 128.2 126.7 126.1 125.5 125.9 124.9 123.5 120.3 119.3 119.4 120.9 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 155.1 157.8 157.3 156.1 155.0 155.3 155.7 156.9 156.7 156.2 155.2 155.5 156.3 6.36 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.2 144.5 142.4 138.1 134.1 128.9 123.5 120.1 116.9 114.7 115.9 116.6 118.9 120.8 Federal Reserve series Commerce2 series Materials (Federal Reserve series) 5.69 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 169.0 171.8 170.4 170.0 171.0 170.9 169.4 167.7 168.5 167.5 167.8 167.3 165.9 164.2 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 79.1 78.5 69.8 71.1 72.2 71.6 70.8 70.2 70.0 70.0 69.8 69.2 68.0 67.4 67.3 67.8 81 83 84 83 78 76 72 71 69 81.1 82.7 85.6 87.4 80.0 79.9 68.9 71.4 72.9 71.8 70.5 69.4 68.8 68.5 68.2 67.7 66.6 65.7 65.2 65.9 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Intermedia fce products Final products Period CConsumer good s Total • Total Durable goods Materials Equij>ment Nondurable goods Total Total Business Construction supplies Supplementary group: Energy total 1967 proportion 47.82 27.68 7.89 19.79 20.14 12.63 12.89 6.42 39.29 12.23 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r. 124.4 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.3 125.6 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 147.9 114.5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.7 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 137.2 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 128.3 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.8 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov r . Dec r 142.8 144.1 143.3 142.6 142.2 142.1 142.5 141.2 140.0 138.7 138.2 139.2 139.6 141.8 - 141.5 142.1 143.6 144.8 145.8 144.1 143.4 142.2 141.1 142.0 120.1 125.9 128.1 130.7 132.6 134.6 137.3 132.9 131.3 126.5 124.4 126.6 147.4 148.1 146.8 146.6 147.9 148.8 149.1 148.6 148.2 148.5 147.7 148.2 147.2 147.3 145.9 143.4 140.4 138.4 138.0 137.3 135.2 134.0 134.3 135.2 172.2 171.6 169.0 164.9 159.9 156.7 154.9 153.9 150.5 147.1 146.6 147.5 143.4 146.3 145.2 143.7 142.6 141.9 142.8 144.7 143.7 141.6 141.9 142.0 124.2 127.5 125.6 123.6 122.2 123.1 124.1 127.1 125.5 122.5 123.4 123.1 137.2 140.4 138.5 136.2 134.3 133.5 133.0 132.8 132.0 130.0 128.5 127.7 139.5 138.9 137.6 136.7 136.5 136.2 136.4 134.8 132.7 134.1 133.3 132.8 Jan" 140.0 143.3 130.1 148.5 135.5 147.4 143.0 124.8 129.4 132.9 1983: [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] ISNondurable inanufacture s Durable mimufactures Primary metals Period Total Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Transp )rtation equipment Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 6.57 4.21 5.93 9.15 8.05 9.27 4.50 1.64 3.31 4.72 7.74 8.75 126.7 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.2 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 124.7 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.7 133.7 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 148.9 143.1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 148.8 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.7 126.0 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.2 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 120.9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get r Nov r Dee r 89.7 88.5 83.0 76.4 75.2 72.8 72.9 72.9 73.2 69.6 63.6 62.7 79.6 78.5 73.0 65.1 62.4 58.0 58.1 57.4 56.4 54.1 47.5 46.7 120.7 121.4 121.1 119.1 115.8 115.0 115.5 114.3 112.3 107.6 107.0 106.6 160.9 160.0 157.3 153.7 150.0 147.4 147.1 147.2 144.9 140.4 139.6 138.0 168.2 172.9 172.6 172.2 170.9 170.8 170.3 169.7 167.0 165.4 165.4 164.0 96.6 102.0 104.4 105.9 110.0 111.6 112.7 107.0 105.3 100.8 100.2 103.6 90.4 98.6 105.6 110.7 119.8 124.0 127.2 116.7 113.5 103.0 101.7 108.5 99.2 104.9 103.5 106.2 110.6 112.2 116.9 120.3 119.9 117.2 119.1 120.5 145.6 146.4 145.9 144.2 143.8 142.6 143.9 145.3 144.3 142.0 141.8 144.0 196.7 201.3 200.3 198.6 193.6 193.2 194.1 195.6 196.4 194.1 193.0 195.6 151.1 151.7 150.8 149.7 150.5 151.0 151.0 150.7 149.0 151.5 151.9 Jan p 66.1 107.6 137.9 166.2 104.9 111.7 1967 proportion 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983: r Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 145.5 NEW CONSTRUCTION Construetio n contracts 2 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Resiclential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total 1 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) 1>illions of dollars 1976 1977 1978 1979 151.1 173,8 205.6 230.4 230.7 238.2 228.7 1980 1981 1982r 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 185.2 178.6 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 52.0 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 53.8 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.4 50.4 45.9 48.8 55.1 53.0 50.2 Seasonally adjusted Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Decr. 1983: Jan" 225.1 222.6 224.6 226.1 228.7 231.6 227.6 228.1 228.1 228.8 235.8 234.7 255.5 175.5 173.0 173.6 175.1 179.9 182.7 178.7 176.6 177.0 177.7 183.8 186.9 200.2 73.7 69.2 70.0 72.3 75.5 75.3 73.4 72.1 71.5 74.0 78.9 83.3 90.4 53.3 54.1 55.0 54.3 53.9 56.5 53.9 52.8 53.7 52.7 53.6 52.8 57.3 51.0 49.2 51.0 49.6 51.0 49.8 51.5 52.3 53.1 52.3 54.7 57.3 65.2 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 P. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 107.0 111.0 39.1 38.2 48.5 49.8 48.6 48.5 50.6 50.9 51.4 51.7 51.8 50.9 51.3 50.9 52.5 49.6 49.6 51.0 51.0 48.8 48.9 48.9 51.4 51.1 51.1 52.0 47.7 55.3 118 115 105 88 94 111 98 112 117 105 122 131 127 592 739 977 1,059 904 906 685 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 698 759 734 707 647 778 694 717 671 656 608 595 803 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted floor space data revised for 1982. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Units started, b} type of structure3 Period Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1 unit 1,160.4 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,061.0 892.2 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.4 877 911 920 911 1,028 910 1,185 1,046 1,134 1,142 1,361 1,263 585 561 607 583 622 617 625 651 683 716 868 837 1,110 2-4 units 64.0 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.1 5 or more units 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 318.5 New prh ate homes Units authorized 939.2 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 992.7 Units completed 1,317.2 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.1 Homes sold 549 646 819 817 709 545 436 411 Vacancy rate Homes for sale at end of period * 313 353 402 414 3 398 336 272 252 housing units (percent) 2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 1982: Jan r Feb r Mar r. Apr r May T June r July r Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov r Dee r. 1983: Janp. 1 Seasonally 2 1,716 70 83 68 65 85 86 96 87 90 66 79 80 118 222 267 245 263 321 207 464 308 361 360 414 346 803 792 851 879 944 929 1,062 888 1,003 1,172 1,192 1,305 488 1,512 adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 1,063 920 926 962 1,138 939 1,007 1,002 929 1,116 1,058 1,017 382 375 375 342 385 369 364 389 473 481 544 524 576 275 274 268 264 258 254 250 248 247 245 246 252 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.5 259 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing starts and sales revised beginning 1980. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade Business sales fell %, percent in December and inventories fell by $4^ billion. According to the advance survey, total retail sales were unchanged in January following a decline of 1 percent in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 1401 130 550 RETAIL INVENTORIES \ 120 500 110 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 450 100 400 90 350 80 -V 300 *"•;,»<***" RETAIL SALES 70 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 250 50 200 40 1980 1979 1981 1982 1983 150 1.30 100 I M I M M II 1980 1979 1981 1982 i i i i i I i iM i 1.20 1983 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total biisiness l COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Inventorv-s ales ratio 4 Be tail Whol esale Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total business 1 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 182,230 204,277 229,623 259,046 294,573 321,504 350,622 339,817 288,375 318,544 351,176 397,090 444,132 482,570 519,394 504,103 46,623 50,694 55,987 65,036 76,109 87,931 97,839 93,539 1981: Dec 341,330 519,394 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec r. 334,579 340,571 342,121 339,835 349,096 346,126 344,603 339,464 339,470 332,537 335,804 334,107 516,256 513,906 513,054 515,074 510,517 512,981 513,387 514,554 515,399 514,224 508,630 504,103 56,697 64,078 72,311 83,891 93,870 104,441 110,549 112,043 49,012 54,781 60,435 67,057 74,529 79,325 86,566 89,114 15,247 18,150 20,724 23,313 25,401 24,716 27,216 27,663 33,765 36,631 39,711 43,744 49,128 54,609 59,350 61,452 95,144 110,549 86,572 26,206 60,366 94,236 95,010 97,361 95,427 97,427 96,565 93,776 92,343 90,866 89,774 90,915 89,810 110,971 108,823 109,657 112,913 111,701 113,515 113,534 113,101 113,852 113,886 112,695 112,043 85,320 87,418 87,242 88,294 90,841 88,042 89,445 88,502 89,326 90,290 92,546 91,482 25,316 26,696 26,958 27,984 29,416 27,175 27,403 26,668 27,498 27,849 30,175 29,276 60,004 60,722 60,284 60,310 61,425 60,867 62,042 61,834 61,828 62,441 62,371 62,206 91,575 28,997 62,578 1983: Jan p J 2 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21), Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 33,356 37,841 43,135 49,914 53,265 53,747 58,835 59,058 38,388 41,432 46,395 52,606 55,963 60,367 66,858 67,790 1.57 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.43 1.51 1.44 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.41 125,693 58,835 66,858 1.52 1.45 124,131 123,395 123,332 123,175 122,367 124,351 124,939 127,151 129,073 128,628 126,638 126,848 57,807 56,957 56,803 56,663 55,984 57,346 58,246 60,075 61,628 60,708 59,059 59,058 66,324 66,438 66,529 66,512 66,383 67,005 66,693 67,076 67,445 67,920 67,579 67,790 1.54 1.51 1.50 1.52 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.55 1.51 1.51 1.45 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.35 1.41 1.40 1.44 1.44 1.42 1.37 1.39 71,744 79,273 89,530 102,520 109,228 114,114 125,693 126,848 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 3 20 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS in December, manufacturers' shipments and orders rose, while inventories fell. According to advance estimates, durable goods shipments and new orders rose in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) ^UU 180 160 — 320 280 — 240 - - 200 - - —SHIPME NTS l —"^A/ ' ^^m^^ TOTAL M L^^^^^ 120 inn _ 80 An ,,»»%A»»"""*""J DURABLE GOO DS 160 ds^e*" r~V"1vw^fi^; 120 -INVENTORIES- ,..."••" . T ' DURABLE GOODS NO NDURABLE GC)ODS .**"' 100 ~ ~ 80 NONDURABLE GOODS MMll.MM U 1 1 1 ll 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 11 1 111 nmlimi MMlhllM 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) iso^-NEWORDERS- 40 160 MM M ll ll M M 140 RATIO* 120 2.2 INVENTO RY-SHIPM ENTS RAT 0 DURABLE GOODS 100 80 —X r^^ - NONDURABLE GOODS 1 60 - 40 t 1 i Ii 1980 1979 1981 1982 J^ 1 1111111111 I I M l l l l l l l 1980 1981 1979 1983 11111 111111 1982 - i i i i i 1 1 i i ii 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufa cturers' ship]nents 1 & [anufacturers ' new ordersi Manufa sturers' inveritories 2 Durable3 goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods 12,799 15,276 19,444 23,203 23,449 24,060 20,682 21,717 21,560 22,174 22,608 20,332 19,278 20,322 18,893 20,273 20,183 20,173 20,154 21,123 48,145 182,499 53,951 59,254 67,960 76,678 82,742 80,582 79,458 79,676 79,339 78,803 81,081 82,508 82,142 81,398 82,900 80,098 79,755 79,670 204,880 261,941 303,178 320,977 318,621 294,572 318,114 315,957 315,639 314,521 310,482 306,032 303,235 299,001 295,883 293,107 291,128 294,572 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 M illions of do ilars, seasoilally adjust*3d 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1982: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dee r. 1983: Jan p 1 2 3 98,802 50,689 113,201 126,953 143,935 154,249 166,216 157,164 155,023 158,142 157,517 156,114 160,828 161,519 161,382 158,619 159,278 152,473 152,343 152,815 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,540 83,416 76,519 75,551 77,976 78,124 77,136 79,518 78,888 79,036 77,248 76,562 72,342 72,708 73,373 76,393 48,113 53,934 59,104 67,875 76,708 82,799 80,645 79,472 80,167 79,394 78,978 81,310 82,631 82,346 81,371 82,716 80,131 79,635 79,442 175,193 189,334 210,679 241,034 264,016 283,152 265,212 281,155 281,688 280,065 278,985 276,449 275,115 274,914 274,302 272,474 271,710 269,297 265,212 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. 112,581 121,737 138,045 160,601 174,674 188,429 176,975 187,054 187,121 186,063 185,916 184,870 184,289 183,798 183,550 182,793 181,843 179,324 176,975 62,612 67,598 72,634 80,433 89,341 94,723 88,237 94,100 94,567 94,002 93,070 91,579 90,826 91,116 90,752 89,681 89,867 89,973 88,237 99,543 115,027 131,664 147,354 155,738 166,015 155,214 154,519 155,984 157,198 154,995 156,791 157,058 158,588 154,380 156,166 149,696 150,362 156,263 51,398 61,076 72,410 79,394 79,060 83,272 74,632 75,061 76,309 77,859 76,194 75,710 74,550 76,446 72,982 73,266 69,598 70,607 76,593 80,051 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.66 1.76 1.81 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.72 1.70 1.70 1.73 1.71 1.78 1.77 1.74 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In January, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 0.2 percent, prices of other finished consumer goods fell 1.8 percent and prices of capital equipment fell 0.1 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 - FINISHED GOODS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 300 300 280 280 TOTAL FINISHED GOODS- 260 240 260 240 CONSUMER FOODS -CAPITAL EQUIPMENT 220 V--, s& 220 200 200 CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 180 180 160 160 140 140 I I i I I I l i I l 1980 120 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 120 1982 1981 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intern- ediate Fin shed goods Finished go<)ds excluding Period Total finished goods sumer foods Consumer gc >ods 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 181.0 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 256.2 257.8 257.4 261.6 262.3 263.5 259.2 259.4 258.3 258.3 258.4 258.7 156.2 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.7 282.3 282.0 281.2 280.4 280.1 283.4 286.6 288.2 288.9 290.4 292.4 293.1 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 284.8 284.6 282.9 281.6 280.7 284.6 288.5 290.1 291.2 293.0 295.6 295.9 1983: Jan 283.0 258.2 289.1 290.5 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1978. 22 Capital Total 163.4 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.6 277.3 277.5 276.8 277.1 277.1 279.9 281.2 282.5 282.8 283.9 285.5 286.0 1 Tntfll Con- Total 1975 1976 consumer foocis 153.1 Durable Nondurable equipment consum- 162.5 Cr ade materi als Foodstuffs Foods Total and Other Total 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 311.9 311.0 309.6 308.4 308.7 309.7 310.3 310.3 310.8 310.9 311.9 311.8 195.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.6 238.4 239.9 239.3 243.4 246.0 245.6 242.1 239.8 236.7 234.3 233.9 234.3 310.8 236.2 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 224.2 223.3 224.6 224.3 225.0 226.8 227.4 228.6 227.8 228.6 229.4 229.9 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.6 274.9 274.5 276.0 276.5 277.8 279.5 280.5 282.3 281.9 282.5 283.3 284.6 163.6 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 280.9 278.0 278.3 277.0 277.3 276.9 280.0 281.5 282.6 283.0 284.3 286.1 286.5 180.0 189.1 201.5 229.8 335.9 284.3 282.6 and Other feedstuffs feeds * 163.0 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.5 330.0 330.3 326.5 324.4 322.4 327.7 334.3 336.2 338.6 341.4 345.2 345.5 138.2 144.5 ma te rials 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.4 316.3 314.9 313.3 313.3 314.5 315.3 315.6 316.3 316.6 317.6 317.5 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 320.2 317.9 317.0 320.8 326.4 325.8 322.1 319.1 315.4 314.4 317.4 316.5 191.8 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 245.8 247.9 249.3 255.7 261.0 258.6 251.0 246.9 239.5 237.0 239.4 240.3 206.9 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 474.0 480.3 468.8 463.2 461.5 467.7 470.8 475.4 474.8 478.6 481.0 485.2 480.3 316.3 315.6 243.0 471.9 178.6 189.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 196.9 CONSUMER PRICES In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (also 0.2 percent, unadjusted). The index was 3.8 percent above its level in January 1982. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 UNADJUSTED 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 ALL ITEMS 200 180 160 1976 1975 1983 1981 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Ti ansportati Ml Hou sing She Her Period All items * Food Total l Total Renters' costs 2 NSA 5 Rel. imp. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan 1 100.0 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 282.5 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 293.3 294.1 293.6 292.4 293.1 19.0 175.4 180.8 192.2 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 281.3 282.6 282.8 283.3 285.4 287.1 287.6 286.9 287.5 288.1 288.2 288.1 288.3 37.7 164.5 174.6 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 306.9 307.7 306.8 309.4 313.6 316.8 318.4 319.7 319.3 320.5 319.9 317.4 318.9 21.3 169.7 179.0 191.1 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 328.4 329.4 327.4 331.1 336.4 340.6 342.5 344.0 342.3 342.6 340.7 336.0 338.3 Homeowners costs 2 Maintenance and repairs NSA NSA 6.9 13.9 100.2 100.8 100.0 100.7 0.5 187.6 199.6 214.7 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 326.7 328.2 327.2 331.6 334.5 336.1 334.7 335.9 338.4 339.4 339.0 337.8 342.9 Includes items not shown separately. December 1982 = 100. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. 4 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 5 Relative importance, December 1982. 6 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. 2 3 Fuel and other utilities 8.4 167.8 182.7 202.2 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 339.5 339.4 340.8 341.4 345.5 348.5 350.3 353.1 357.5 362.7 367.1 369.6 368.9 Apparel and upkeep Total l New cars Motor fuel 3 5.2 142.3 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 189.5 190.2 190.6 190.8 191.1 191.5 192.2 192.7 192.8 193.3 193.2 192.7 193.2 21.8 150.6 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 290.9 287.0 286.6 282.5 285.1 291.5 294.1 295.3 295.6 296.4 296.0 295.8 293.9 3.5 127.6 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 195.9 195.3 195.7 196.1 196.5 197.2 198.0 199.2 199.6 199.2 198.7 199.3 199.4 6.2 170.8 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 412.5 391.9 385.0 362.7 368.0 387.4 393.4 395.9 396.0 395.4 394.2 391.2 378.3 Medical care Ener- 6.0 168.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 312.7 315.2 318.1 321.4 324.2 327.2 330.5 333.4 336.3 338.7 341.8 344.4 347.2 12.4 176.6 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 422.1 411.1 405.5 395.2 401.8 412.9 416.7 418.9 421.0 426.6 430.2 431.3 6 420.5 gy 4 All items less food, energy, and shelter 47.3 149.4 159.9 169.5 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 238.8 239.7 241.1 242.4 243.4 245.4 246.7 247.7 248.7 250.1 250.7 251.9 253.1 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1967. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Ch ange from p receding pen od Change from 3 montr s earlier, ann ual rate Change from 6 month s earlier, annual rate Consum 3r goods Consum ST goods Consum ?r goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Chiunge, Dec. to Dec., N SA 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 : 18.3 13.0 20.5 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 5.5 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 1979 1980..... 1981 1982*. 12.8 11.8 1982: Jan Feb Mar... Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1983: Jan 0.4 .1 -.3 .1 0 1.0 .5 .5 .1 .4 .6 .2 -2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 7.1 3.5 15.3 10.8 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 4.4 6.5 7.8 17.5 14.2 11.4 11.1 13.5 8.5 3.9 9.2 4.0 9.2 4.0 C lange, morith to mon th 1.1 .6 .2 1.6 .3 .5 -1.6 .1 — .4 0 .0 .1 -.2 -1.0 0.1 0.5 — .1 — .1 .6 -.5 .3 1.4 1.4 .6 .4 .6 .9 .1 .5 .2 .5 .6 .4 .6 — .1 .2 .3 .5 -.1 -1.8 2.2 7.3 6.6 8.7 7.2 9.8 4.6 3.5 .9 -.3 -.6 4.6 6.1 8.0 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.6 2.1 2.4 -4.4 5.4 2.4 10.2 14.1 -3.6 4.3 9.6 6.4 7.8 6.6 -7.7 1.4 -1.5 .6 -.2 -1.3 7.0 3.3 3.6 2.3 4.9 5.2 5.9 6.6 3.5 2.9 1.4 3.9 2.6 -3.4 4.5 4.3 2.8 2.1 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.0 6.2 4.4 1.3 0.1 1.2 1.7 5.4 7.2 8.2 2.4 1.2 .7 -2.5 -3.0 -3.6 5.4 5.1 2.2 0 -1.7 0 2.6 3.9 6.0 8.3 10.9 -.8 8.1 1.4 7.1 5.6 5.7 4.6 4.1 4.4 4.1 5.8 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.7 2.7 6.5 5.5 4.2 3.3 3.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 2.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1978. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Housing Tr ansportat on Sh elter Period All items * Food Total 1 Total l Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Maintenance and repairs NSA NSA Fuel and other utilities All Apparel and upkeep Total 1 New cars Motor2 fuel Medical care Ener- gy 3 items less food, energy, shelter Addendu m: All items percent chaiige (annual i ate) From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Chang e, Decem ber to E>ecembei ,NSA 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 6.5 .6 8.0 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.9 3.9 4.3 3.1 7.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 7.3 4.2 8.7 5.5 7.1 7.2 11.5 17.4 15.1 10.1 10.3 10.6 9.9 2.4 9.2 4.2 11.2 9.0 8.1 5.9 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 7.3 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 11.0 9.9 11.6 2.6 4.9 8.5 10.1 8.8 8.8 6.9 7.2 8.0 52.2 18.9 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 0.8 .8 .9 1.0 .9 .9 1.0 .9 .9 .7 .9 .8 .8 -0.9 -2.6 — 1.4 -2.5 9.4 6.5 1.3 9.1 5.8 6.5 7.7 6.4 7.0 5.2 6.5 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 Change, month t o month 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan 0.3 .1 -.0 .2 1.0 1.1 .6 .3 .1 .4 0 -.3 .2 0.7 .5 .1 .2 .7 .6 .2 -.2 .2 .2 .0 -.0 .1 0.2 .3 -.3 .8 1.4 1.0 .5 .4 0.1 .3 -.6 1.1 1.6 1.2 .6 .4 — .1 — .5 .4 -.2 -.8 .5 .1 -.6 0.8 .5 -.3 1.3 .9 .5 -.4 .4 .7 .3 -.1' -1.4 .7 0.6 6.7 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. 3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, 4 -.4 1.5 0.9 -.0 .4 .2 1.2 .9 .5 .8 1.2 1.5 1.2 .7 2 motor oil, coolant, etc. Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc, beginning January 1983. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1967. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 -0.1 .4 .2 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .1 .3 -.1 -.3 .3 -0.1 -1.3 — .1 -1.4 .9 2.2 .9 .4 .1 .3 -.1 — .1 -.6 -0.2 g .2 .2 .2 .4 .4 .6 .2 -.2 -.3 .3 .1 -1.5 -5.0 -1.8 -5.8 1.5 5.3 1.5 .6 .0 -.2 -.3 -.8 -3.3 4 1.7 2.8 .9 .5 .5 1.3 .8 .3 -2.5 0.5 .4 .6 .5 .4 .8 .5 .4 .4 .6 .2 .5 .5 4.7 3.0 1.3 1.1 5.0 9.8 11.3 8.2 4.1 3.3 2.1 .5 — .4 6.9 5.3 3.1 2.9 4.0 5.5 6.1 6.6 6.9 7.2 5.1 2.3 1.4 8.4 7.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.0 5.1 4.6 3.9 3.8 Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 3.1 percent in February and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended February 15. INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 60 1983 ]/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES P, SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100] P rices paid by farmer s Pri ces received by farm ers Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 All farm products Livestock and products Crops 133 133 135 139 137 137 133 135 128 128 127 1983: Jan Feb 128 132 143 144 113 107 100 106 107 97 93 85 124 121 123 126 125 125 117 124 114 117 114 142 145 147 151 149 148 147 146 142 140 139 154 155 155 156 156 157 157 157 156 156 156 153 154 154 155 155 155 155 154 153 154 153 148 149 149 150 151 151 150 149 148 149 148 86 86 87 89 88 87 85 86 82 82 81 l!4 117 142 147 157 158 156 156 150 151 82 84 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. Ratio 2 91 97 100 108 125 138 148 149 102 100 105 116 125 134 121 r Production items 89 95 100 109 125 139 151 154 105 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 95 100 108 123 138 150 156 101 102 100 115 132 134 139 133 1982: All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates l 98 101 100 124 147 144 89 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The inde; have been converted to a 1977=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS In January, growth was about unchanged in Ml while growth in the broader aggregates accelerated with the introduction of money market deposit accounts. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIOSCALE) 400 — 400 200 200 1982 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Percent <Change from year or 6 m onths earlier 2 Ml M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) * Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term EPs, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets 291.0 310.4 335.5 363.2 389.0 414.5 1,026.9 1,171.2 1,297.7 1,403.9 1,518.9 1,656.2 1,166.2 1,305.0 1,464.6 1,629.0 1,779.4 1,963.1 1,376.6 1,531.4 1,724.3 1,938.9 2,153.9 2,370.4 1981: Dec 3 1982: Dec 3 1982: Jan 3 Feb 3 Mar 3 Apr 3 May 3 June 3 July 3 Aug 3 Sept 3 Oct 3 Nov 3 Dec 3 440.6 478.4 447.8 448.0 448.6 449.3 452.4 453.4 454.4 458.3 463.2 468.8 474.1 478.4 1,794.9 1,958.8 1,810.1 1,815.8 1,828.9 1,835.2 1,850.6 1,864.6 1,880.9 1,903.6 1,917.0 1,929.5 1,944.7 1,958.8 2,167.9 2,376.9 2,181.8 2,191.6 2,210.9 2,224.1 2,240.7 2,260.2 , 2,283.4 2,317.8 2,333.9 2,351.8 2,369.9 2,376.9 2,622.0 1983: Jan 3 482.4 2,007.2 Period 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate. 26 2,644.4 2,668.0 2,692.6 2,709.9 2,736.9 2,766.0 2,795.7 2,821.1 2,837.7 2,399.9 3 M2 Ml 4.9 6.7 8.1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 9.6 11.9 12.2 11.2 8.3 7.1 6.6 10.8 8.2 8.2 9.0 8.6 9.1 9.6 7.5 7.7 5.9 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.9 9.8 11.3 12.7 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.0 9.9 9.9 10.5 10.4 10.4 13.9 9.2 8.6 8.7 9.5 Series revised; revised data not yet available prior to October 1981. NOTE.—See page 26 for components. 12.7 14.1 M3 9.2 10.3 11.8 11.4 11.8 11.9 10.6 10.5 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Currency Period Dec: 1975 ... 1976 ... 1977 ... 1978 ... 1979 ... 1980 ... 1981 3. 1982 3. 1982: Demand deposits 1 80.6 88.6 97.4 106.1 116.2 214.1 224.4 239.6 253.9 262.2 267.2 123.2 132.8 73.8 Jan 3 ... 124.0 Feb 3... 124.7 Mar 3... 125.2 Apr 3... 126.3 May 3 .. 127.4 June 3 . 128.2 July 3.. 128.8 Aug 3 .. 129.6 Sept 3.. 130.5 Oct 3 ... 131.3 Nov 3... 131.9 Dec 3... 132.8 Other checkable deposits (OCD) 0.9 2.7 4.2 8.4 Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA NSA NSA Money market mutua Ifund bala nces 3.2 2.8 2.9 7.1 7.5 Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits 2 Large denomination time deposits 2 NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 8.4 8.8 48.0 51.7 62.9 79.2 387.7 451.7 490.4 479.9 421.7 398.9 340.9 396.5 454.1 533.9 652.6 751.7 129.8 118.2 145.2 194.6 221.8 257.9 9.0 9.7 15.0 21.0 27.5 30.2 37.8 13.1 18.7 29.9 42.9 48.4 67.2 71.7 76.4 80.3 79.6 72.3 77.1 81.1 89.9 99.3 128.5 156.7 11.8 21.4 26.5 31.8 344.4 359.0 828.6 859.1 302.6 333.9 37.2 40.3 65.3 67.7 176.3 40.6 104.2 42.8 35.3 33.6 34.8 34.3 35.6 36.6 40.4 47.1 48.2 49.3 49.9 47.6 826.6 833.1 840.7 847.2 852.5 859.3 872.9 879.8 883.2 877.8 874.6 859.1 304.4 309.9 315.8 321.2 322.1 327.4 332.1 334.9 336.1 339.6 340.4 333.9 35.6 35.7 35.6 38.1 37.0 36.3 34.5 37.0 36.4 37.7 39.4 40.3 68.3 72.8 74.0 77.9 83.8 84.7 83.7 80.5 80.3 67.8 67.8 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.6 67.5 67.5 179.9 186.8 189.8 190.3 191.4 196.2 200.4 202.1 203.6 41.1 40.6 39.9 40.2 41.3 41.6 42.0 41.3 41.4 105.5 108.4 110.3 109.7 112.1 115.7 118.7 112.0 111.1 42.8 347.7 346.9 346.6 345.9 346.6 347.2 345.0 346.7 350.0 358.0 366.4 359.0 46.0 186.9 334.5 797.3 310.8 40,1 0.4 .6 .9 3.1 9.3 16.9 26.9 13.7 18.8 24.1 26.3 35.0 34.4 61.9 13.9 236.4 239.8 76.6 101.3 36.1 44.2 150.9 182.1 36.0 47.6 238.9 235.5 233.8 233.3 233.1 232.3 232.1 232.5 234.0 236.1 237.6 239.8 80.4 83.4 85.1 85.3 87.4 88.4 89.1 91.8 94.3 97.0 100.1 101.3 39.7 38.0 39.1 36.8 40.1 40.3 41.8 42.4 41.5 43.9 45.2 44.2 154.7 156.0 159.7 161.8 164.9 170.1 172.9 182.3 185.1 187.6 191.1 182.1 239.4 104.4 47.1 166.5 97.0 98.1 1983: Jan 3 ... 134.2 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 3 Series revised; revised data not yet available prior to October 1981. NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures. Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installment credit ext€ nded Total * Automobile Net charige in amount out standing Insta Iment credit liquidated Period Kevolving Total l Automobile Revolving Total 1 180,083 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 336,341 340,161 52,420 63,743 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 94,404 95,192 36,956 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 140,135 147,658 172,675 189,179 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,447 330,162 49,444 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,809 91,117 35,616 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,438 144,432 7,408 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 19,894 9,999 1981: Dec 26,656 7,352 11,592 26,689 7,284 11,533 1982: 26,888 27,150 27,462 28,684 29,197 29,737 27,514 27,579 28,268 28,062 31,610 30,462 7,474 7,283 7,183 7,871 8,429 8,182 7,332 7,112 7,546 7,970 10,329 9,618 11,070 11,730 12,143 12,416 12,528 13,361 12,551 12,497 12,464 12,340 12,489 12,336 26,445 27,075 26,472 27,509 27,798 28,388 26,944 27,513 27,176 28,386 29,087 28,270 7,595 7,339 7,211 7,638 7,470 7,527 7,271 7,514 7,041 8,048 8,513 8,315 11,266 11,885 11,836 11,917 11,991 12,854 11,939 12,354 12,254 12,232 12,382 11,804 -33 443 75 990 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. 1,175 1,399 1,349 570 66 1,092 -324 2,523 2,192 Automobile Revolving 2,976 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 1,340 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 477 1,415 4,697 3,226 9,595 4,075 68 -121 -56 -28 233 959 655 61 -402 505 -78 1,816 1,303 59 -196 -155 307 499 537 507 612 143 210 108 107 532 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES In January, commercial and industrial loans rose from their December level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1,800 r SCALE) 1,200 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,600 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS1,400 800 800 LOANS AND LEASES 600 600 400 400 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES . , . . „ . . . . . » » • " ' * " " 200 180 160 140 120 200 180 160 140 120 100 100 80 60 60 40 40 1975 1977 1976 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al i commercial banks l Depo sitory institutio n s 3 R eserves adjust(?d Loans a nd leases Period 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: Total loans and investments Total 2 Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Treasury securities 190.9 210,9 100.8 99.8 12 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 32.82 34.26 36.46 37.99 40.89 29.59 30.98 32.59 33.93 35.95 37.67 40.39 62 30.60 31.95 32.79 34.77 37.35 40.26 558 874 1,473 1,617 636 697 54 134 82 116 53 33 360.3 365.5 370.0 373.1 378.9 383.4 386.7 387.9 392.5 394.8 392.0 392.4 114.1 115.1 114.4 116.6 116.3 115.8 116.5 117.8 118.2 122.3 126.4 130.9 231.5 232.0 233.1 234.0 234.9 235.9 235.9 237.1 237.6 237.2 235.8 239.1 38.71 38.26 38.36 38.43 38.50 38.58 38.52 38.80 39.57 39.88 40.46 40.89 37.20 36.47 36.80 36.87 37.39 37.37 37.83 38.29 38.63 39.40 39.84 40.26 38.30 37.96 37.99 38.16 38.15 38.27 38.21 38.49 39.18 39.47 40.06 40.39 1,526 1,713 1,611 1,581 1,105 1,205 669 510 976 455 579 697 75 132 174 167 237 239 225 119 102 86 47 33 395.2 139.8 243.3 40.96 40.43 40.41 500 33 1,320.0 1,332.4 1,342.5 1,352.5 1,362.0 1,368.8 1,376.1 1,383.1 1,389.4 1,397.5 1,398.5 1,412.1 974.5 985.2 995.0 1,002.0 1,010.8 1,017.1 1,023.7 1,028.3 1,033.5 1,038.1 1,036.4 1,042.0 1983: Jan p 1,428.1 1,045.0 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. 28 Seasonal Total 29.81 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 3 Required 31.17 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.4 2 Nonborrowed 29.86 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 1,042.0 1 Total 148.8 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.1 555.0 632.5 Other securities 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.1 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec r 804.6 Born) wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) for changes m re serve requiresnents Investrnents NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, banks loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Ci edit market fu nds Period Total Internal * Total Total 192.4 190.1 156.9 210.8 252.2 315.4 346.3 333.7 352.2 310.0 333.6 381.2 348.9 345.0 298.1 354.1 331.2 256.3 1973 1974... 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: I n in IV 1982: I rr JI r m. IV 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 197.5 231.1 236.2 222.4 225.4 235.2 241.4 232.6 234.3 240.1 237.7 100.7 104.4 37.2 76.6 94.9 139.7 157.5 136.2 121.1 73.8 111.3 155.8 113.7 103.6 65.5 119.8 91.1 18.6 Loans and short-term paper Securities and mortgages 56.7 69.9 30.7 54.5 70.4 79.3 91.2 95.7 92.6 80.7 68.7 119.1 100.2 82.5 97.9 96.7 102.1 26.0 36.0 43.6 8.0 16.3 36.5 47.4 65.3 38.2 69.6 38.1 27.1 84.3 97.0 69.9 77.2 61.3 57.6 43.6 20.7 26.3 38.7 38.2 33.9 31.9 25.9 57.5 23.1 42.6 41.6 34.8 3.2 12.7 20.7 35.4 44.5 69.6 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Other Total 2 44.0 34.5 6.5 22.1 24.5 191.9 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 294.2 347.1 317.9 314.8 267.5 60.4 66.3 40.6 28.5 -6.9 42.6 36.7 13.5 21.1 318.2 352.2 304.6 284.0 -32.3 23.1 -11.0 -7.4 240.6 298.6 303.8 227.2 Capital expenditures 3 121.5 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 202.2 219.8 220.5 260.9 247.8 233.5 260.0 284.6 265.5 244.0 248.4 268.2 230.8 Increase in financial assets 70.5 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 127.3 97.4 53.9 19.7 84.7 92.2 20.0 18.5 -3.4 50.2 35.6 -3.6 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 0.5 .0 6.0 9.0 14.7 21.2 -.8 15.8 37.4 42.4 15.4 29.0 44.2 61.0 57.5 55.5 27.5 29.1 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilitk,s Curren assets End of period SIC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FTC-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n 1 Total Cash U.S. Government securities Notes and accounts receivable 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,218.2 1,333.5 1,427.1 1,374.5 1,388.3 1,410.9 1,427.1 1,423.6 1,419.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 127.1 131.7 126.6 126.2 125.1 131.7 121.3 123.4 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.3 17.0 19.3 17.9 19.2 19.9 18.0 17.9 17.1 17.4 Total Notes and accounts payable Net working capital Current ratio 1 282.9 340.3 402.3 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 382.9 461.2 515.2 562.9 520.3 525.9 549.5 562.9 555.0 554.9 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.4 346.6 375.7 417.1 402.9 405.5 417.7 417.1 430.8 427.8 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.4 410.5 442.6 447.1 451.3 456.8 443.7 447.1 437.9 436.8 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.508 1.497 1.456 1.489 1.490 1.459 1.456 1.444 1.445 304.9 326.0 211.3 220.5 248.2 288.5 322.1 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 375.6 450.9 530.4 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 461.1 510.6 536.7 528.0 533.1 542.4 536.7 537.8 534.4 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.6 505.5 543.7 587.1 560.2 565.3 577.0 587.1 593.8 589.2 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.3 116.7 132.7 153.6 140.5 143.8 148.3 153.6 153.6 155.0 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.3 807.8 890.9 980.0 923.2 931.5 967.2 980.0 985.7 982.6 193.3 Other current liabilities 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. 2 3 Other current assets Inventories 187.4 NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS On average, interest rates rose in February. PERCENT PER ANNUM 1982 1975 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S.I ^reasury security yields Period 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Week ended: 1983: Jan 8 15 22 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 Mar 5 3 -month bills l Constant nnaturities 3-year 5.265 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.077 10.686 13.780 12.493 12.821 12.148 12.108 11.914 9.006 8.196 7.750 8.042 8.013 7.810 8.130 6.69 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 14.73 14.13 14.18 13.77 14.48 14.00 12.62 12.03 10.62 9.98 9.88 9.64 9.91 7.896 7.671 7.619 8.055 8.122 8.252 8.256 7.888 7.944 9.65 9.45 9.55 9.87 10.00 10.06 9.95 9.66 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3& Poor's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months 4 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 14.43 13.86 13.87 13.62 14.30 13.95 13.06 12.34 10.91 10.55 10.54 10.46 10.72 5.56 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 12.81 12.72 12.45 11.99 12.42 12.11 11.12 10.61 9.59 9.97 9.91 9.45 9.48 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 15.27 14.58 14.46 14.26 14.81 14.61 13.71 12.94 12.12 11.68 11.83 11.79 12.01 5.61 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 14.27 13.47 13.64 13.02 13.79 13.00 10.80 10.86 9.21 8.72 8.50 8.15 8.39 10.36 10.32 10.41 10.68 10.88 10.92 10.75 10.40 9.42 9.28 9.39 9.69 9.63 9.69 9.31 9.28 11.77 11.70 11.70 11.94 12.06 12.11 12.08 11.82 8.23 8.00 8.01 8.32 8.49 8.54 8.37 8.19 7.42 8.41 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week. 30 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 8.02 8.73 4 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 5.46 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-11.50 11.50-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00- 9.50 9.50- 9.00 9.00-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 6.83 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 17.00 15.75 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-15.50 15.50-13.50 13.50-13.50 13.50-12.00 12.00-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.50-11.50 11.50 11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 9.02 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 15.12 15.67 15.84 15.89 15.40 15.70 15.68 14.98 14.41 13.81 13.69 13.49 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in February. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 90 90 40 1983 PERCENT PERCENT 20 1 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1982 1981 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Common stock price s l ' Common st ock yields (perce nt) 5 Ne^v York Stock Ex change indexes (] )ec. 31, 1965-5O ) 2 Period Composite 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Week ended: 1983: Jan 15 22 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 1 Industrial Transportation Utility Finance Dow-Jones industrial3 average Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 53.69 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 57.86 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 41.09 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 40.92 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 55.25 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 894.63 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 98.20 96.02 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 4.62 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 66.16 63.86 66.97 67.07 63.10 62.82 62.91 70.21 76.10 79.75 80.30 74.78 71.51 75.59 75.97 71.59 71.37 70.98 80.08 86.67 90.76 92.00 59.09 55.19 57.91 56.84 53.07 53.40 53.98 61.39 66.64 71.92 73.40 38.32 38.57 39.20 39.40 37.34 37.20 38.19 40.36 42.67 43.46 42.93 70.50 69.08 71.44 69.16 63.19 61.59 62.84 69.66 80.59 88.66 86.22 833.15 812.33 844.96 846.72 804.37 818.41 832.11 917.27 988.71 1,027.76 1,033.08 114.50 110.84 116.31 116.35 109.70 109.38 109.65 122.43 132.66 138.10 139.37 6.06 6.28 5.99 5.97 6.28 6.31 6.32 5.63 5.12 4.92 4.93 83.25 84.74 95.37 97.26 75.65 79.44 45.59 45.92 85.66 86.57 1,064.29 1,087.43 144.27 146.80 4.79 4.74 84.44 84.22 82.20 83.32 84.60 85.46 85.35 96.86 96.46 93.95 95.36 97.11 98.25 98.02 77.40 76.46 74.97 77.96 79.79 79.31 80.01 45.58 46.35 45.83 46.05 46.13 45.78 45.79 87.96 86.04 83.58 84.27 84.96 88.08 88.51 1,082.91 1,071.26 1,047.72 1,068.14 1,080.82 1,091.87 1,105.02 146.33 145.70 142.41 144.38 146.55 148.02 147.90 4.69 4.74 4.87 4.81 4.74 4.67 4.73 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the'stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 2 3 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed ( Earningsprice ratio 10.79 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 13.23 12.93 the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Joi poration. & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor- 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1983, there was a budget deficit of $77.8 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $38.9 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 800 500 500 400 400 300 300 BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -100 -100 -200 -200 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (estimates) 1 1984 (estimates) 1 Cumulative total first 4 months: Fiscal year 1982 Fiscal year 1983 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 597.5 659.7 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 805.2 848.5 201.3 194.5 240.1 272.4 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 1 Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984, January 1983. 32 Budget outlays Budget surplus or deficit (— ) Off-budget outlays Total surplus or deficit (-) Gross Held by the public -53.2 73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 78.9 -127.9 -224.8 -202.8 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,383.7 1,606.3 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 • 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,144.4 1,347.4 -43.7 -79.3 1,043.8 1,205.9 839.8 997.8 .1 1.4 -23.4 -14.9 -6.1 -66.4 13.0 — 44.9 48.8 -27.7 59.6 -57.9 110.6 -207.7 188.8 8.1 7.3 1.8 8.7 10.4 12.5 14.2 21.0 17.3 17.0 14.0 -38.9 -77.8 4.8 1.5 -23.4 14.8 -4.7 45.2 Federal debt ( end of period) Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1983, budget receipts were $6.8 billion lower than a year earlier and budget outlays were $32.3 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 300 200 - 200 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 NONDEFENSE \ ^++* + 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1984 1983 1982 1981 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] ] budget Budget r 3ceipts outlays Nation a,l defense Period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (estimates) 1 1984 (estimates) 1 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 597.5 659.7 94.7 103.2 119.0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 285.2 295.6 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 35.3 51.8 Cumulative total first 4 months: Fiscal year 1982 Fiscal year 1983 201.3 194.5 102.7 102.4 14.7 8.2 Other Total Department of Defense, military 105.7 116.1 125.0 34.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 208.4 252.2 270.8 277.0 312.3 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 805.2 848.5 76.6 74.5 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.8 187.4 214.8 245.3 75.1 73.2 77.6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.1 182.9 208.9 238.6 83.8 84.0 240.1 272.4 59.3 67.7 57.9 65.9 80.4 91.4 Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984, January 1983. NOTE.—One substantial change was made in the January 1983 Budget in the functional classification: the interest function was changed to net interest. Formerly, the interest function total includ- Total International affairs Health and income security Net interest Other 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 6.1 10.7 11.1 10.0 11.9 13.3 80.0 90.4 104.8 134.3 158.9 41.0 174.5 187.4 207.1 248.3 291.1 322.4 364.8 373.1 15.5 17.3 21.4 23.2 26.7 6.9 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 84.7 88.9 103.2 53.9 59.3 58.2 74.2 83.9 21.8 93.8 114.4 117.5 129.3 126.5 123.9 124.7 113.7 3.3 2.9 102.4 119.0 34.4 38.1 40.7 44.7 4.7 4.1 5.7 ed all Treasury interest payments, including those made to trust funds. The new net interest functional total is the amount paid by the Treasury to the public. Intragovernmental payments are netted out. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1982, Federal receipts decreased $3.3 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $33.1 billion, yielding a deficit of $156.0 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, expenditures rose $46.5 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 800 500 400 400 300 300 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) r ~mi -100 -100 ffl -200 -200 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982 1981 1980 1983 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal (jovernment expenditur BS Federal Governme]at receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Calendar year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n mr iv . 414.3 480.8 525.1 614.7 618.2 431.6 493.6 540.7 628.2 614.5 620.0 627.0 640.2 625.7 609.9 617.0 613.7 Personal tax and nontax receipts 186.5 222.6 250.1 Corporate profits tax accruals 67.3 76.1 291.7 303.0 70.0 70.9 50.1 194.9 230.6 257.5 298.1 300.1 286.4 297.0 307.9 300.9 299.9 305.8 295.6 299.2 71.3 74.2 70.3 67.3 47.8 76.1 65.6 68.4 59.1 46.5 45.2 49.8 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Transfer payments Net interest paid 27.2 29.1 34.7 55.7 50.7 133.3 153.1 170.3 196.3 214.4 450.4 495.6 577.0 666.5 739.7 150.4 164.1 189.8 218.1 250.1 182.2 201.8 239.4 279.2 310.8 74.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 40.6 50.6 66.2 82.5 28.1 29.4 38.9 58.5 50.0 57.5 61.5 57.8 57.2 48.7 49.8 50.8 50.7 137.2 159.5 174.1 204.3 216.6 199.9 202.8 206.1 208.4 214.9 216.2 217.5 217.7 461.0 509.7 602.1 688.2 762.7 659.7 667.5 698.2 727.4 728.3 736.6 769.7 816.2 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 257.7 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 249.7 244.3 259.0 277.9 185.6 209.2 251.4 286.6 321.9 274.0 276.7 295.1 300.7 303.2 312.8 327.4 344.3 77.3 80.5 88.7 87.7 83.5 90.2 90.6 86.3 83.6 83.0 85.0 82.0 84.0 35.2 42.4 53.1 71.9 84.9 66.3 68.3 74.0 79.0 79.6 82.8 88.7 88.6 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 Purchases of goods and services Grantsin-aid to State and local governments 33.5 Subsidies i current surplus of Government enterprises Surplus or deficit T one,- Wage accruals less disbursements 12.8 .0 -.0 .0 .1 -.1 9.5 9.2 11.7 13.1 14.6 12.2 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 11.6 12.6 21.5 .0 .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 -.1 -.2 .0 .0 .0 9.7 9.9 10.5 13.1 national income and product accounts -36.1 -14.8 -51.9 -51.9 -121.5 -29.5 -16.1 -61.4 -60.0 -148.2 -39.7 -40.5 -58.0 -101.7 -118.4 -119.6 -156.0 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Indu strial prod action (sesisonally adju sted) Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 r 1982 p 1982: Febr Mar r. Apr May r June July r Aug r Sept r Get r Nov r Dec r. 1983: Jan* 1 United States 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.2 138.7 138.8 138.4 137.3 135.7 134.8 135.0 136.2 Consume«r prices (iinadjusted) Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom United States * 148.5 152.2 182.0 189.7 201.1 217.7 232.5 239.5 242.2 242.0 245.1 240.7 236.4 241.8 243.0 242.3 245.1 237.7 244.8 244.3 149 152 154 161 149.1 152.0 154.1 161.8 162.3 143.5 145.1 117.4 123.0 127.0 132.2 123.6 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 293.3 294.1 293.6 292.4 293.1 157.8 167.4 164.6 167.3 156.5 154.1 152.4 153.6 149.7 145.4 151.4 146.3 141.1 141.6 160 157 156 157 156 157 159 151 151 154 156 156 160.0 163 163 161 160 157 151 157 154 152 151 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.7 159.0 164.0 161.6 161.3 160.4 154.0 158.6 127.5 153.6 147.4 152.0 149.8 118.8 119.3 119.9 120.1 120.5 118.8 119.4 119.4 119.9 119.7 117.8 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Canada 172.1 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.4 292.1 295.8 297.5 301.5 304.5 306.1 307.6 309.2 311.2 313.3 313.4 312.5 Japan France Germany 224.9 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.2 296.2 304.0 299.8 300.4 302.9 303.8 303.8 301.5 303.8 309.1 310.0 306.6 306.0 196.1 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 372.4 359.6 363.8 368.2 150.4 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.3 196.2 192.8 193.1 194.0 195.2 197.1 197.6 197.3 197.9 198.5 198.9 199.4 371.1 373.7 374.7 375.9 377.5 379.5 383.2 386.4 Italy 218.1 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 524.4 529.1 533.9 539.8 545.2 553.4 563.4 571.3 582.7 590.3 594.4 United Kingdom 252.4 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 499.1 503.5 513.6 517.3 518.9 518.9 519.0 518.7 521.3 523.9 522.9 523.5 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Total domestic and foreign exports Domestic exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merch andise trade balance Merchandise im] >orts Mer 3handise expc rts * Manufactured goods Total 2 Geilerai import s 3 Exports Crude materials and fuels _ less imports (customs value) Food, beverages, and tobacco a a <! } Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 7,739 6,200 11,873 12,002 22,779 -2,275 21,240 -2,647 -3,306 -3,558 7,632 5,511 5,751 5,201 5,466 6,058 7,201 6,864 5,990 6,739 6,159 5,721 5,319 12,425 11,939 12,138 10,654 13,163 12,830 11,200 13,456 12,304 11,903 10,978 10,988 22,943 20,049 20,915 18,680 21,999 22,008 21,306 23,650 21,595 21,945 20,123 19,550 -3,356 -618 -1,582 125 -2,910 -2,247 -2,321 5,136 -3,335 -4,347 -3,414 -2,370 -4,359 -1,435 -2,453 -674 -3,874 -3,185 -3,246 -6,186 -4,274 -5,273 -4,271 3,203 11,981 20,348 -2,036 -2,955 I?.a,s. valu e Monthly average: 1975* 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 762 688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 2,020 148 -1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 Customs value 1981 1982 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan 1 19,473 17,683 19,075 17,256 2,767 2,248 2,752 2,793 12,857 11,643 21,748 20,329 18,584 18,614 18,462 18,005 18,124 18,823 18,060 17,463 17,320 16,671 15,852 16,347 18,197 18,251 17,986 17,603 17,713 18,387 17,671 17,143 16,584 16,284 15,476 15,913 2,304 2,481 2,665 2,495 2,465 2,418 1,902 2,153 1,926 2,128 2,051 1,966 3,006 3,268 3,012 2,943 2,880 2,828 2,698 2,694 2,751 2,688 2,440 2,420 12,356 11,954 11,829 11,555 11,788 12,536 12,536 11,804 11,331 10,942 10,484 10,648 21,940 19,231 20,044 17,880 21,034 21,070 20,380 22,599 20,655 21,018 19,266 18,717 17,393 17,007 2,312 2,760 11,263 19,429 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is- 1,529 1,485 1,245 1,217 1,455 1,443 1,541 1,537 1,436 1,681 1,701 1,686 1,499 1,414 1,582 lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. * Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Data revised for 1982 months. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell slightly to $11.9 billion from $12.5 billion in the third quarter. The trade deficit for the year 1982 was $36.1 billion, compared to $27.9 billion for 1981. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits ( —)] Merchandise 1 i Period Exports Imports In vestment incorne 3 Net balance Receipts Payments -5,343 27,587 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,129 72,686 85,945 -12,084 12,564 — 13,311 -14,217 -21,680 -32,914 -42,776 -52,908 15,503 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,215 29,910 33,037 Net Net military transactions Net travel and transportation receipts -1,653 -746 559 1,528 621 -2,035 -2,471 -1,541 -3,184 -2,792 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers l Balance on current account Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services * -2,558 -3,293 -3,125 -2,429 -940 -231 3,986 4,598 4,711 5,224 5,955 5,690 7,144 7,702 9,309 22,893 9,382 -9,451 -9,743 5,095 8,303 11,079 -4,998 -4,617 -5,030 -5,561 -6,783 -6,608 18,280 4,384 - 14,068 -14,773 -466 1,520 4,471 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 236,254 211,155 -103,649 -98,041 -124,051 -151,689 -175,813 -211,819 -249,575 -264,143 -247,268 9,047 -9,306 30,873 -33,759 -27,346 -25,338 -27,889 -36,113 1981: I II Ill IV 60,683 60,284 57,694 57,593 -64,995 -66,831 -65,539 -66,778 -4,312 -6,547 -7,845 -9,185 20,528 21,642 22,048 21,727 -12,405 13,441 -13,865 -13,198 8,123 8,201 8,183 8,529 -487 -587 61 -528 -495 -139 200 203 1,838 1,981 1,960 1,924 4,667 2,909 2,559 943 -1,422 -1,510 -1,808 -1,870 3,245 1,399 751 -927 1982: I II Ill 55,607 55,002 52,318 48,228 -61,544 -60,764 -64,826 -60,134 -5,937 -5,762 -12,508 -11,906 20,890 22,562 21,880 - 14,029 -14,874 - 14,462 6,861 7,688 7,418 167 247 527 -66 -319 -201 2,034 2,050 2,140 3,123 3,971 -2,574 -2,048 -1,740 -1,653 1,075 2,231 4,227 1974.... 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p IVP 98,306 1 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. 3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 -7,186 -4,613 2,124 Note.—Merchandise trade data are as revised in January issue; other data to be revised later. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $21.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $36.9 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $11.5 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $24.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 60 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 1974 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increas e/ capital inflowv ( + )] 2 [increase /capit!il outflow (— ) 1 Period Total U.S. official reserve assets l 2 -22,874 -34,745 -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,344 -86,026 -109,294 158 -1,467 -849 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets -2,558 -375 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 366 3,474 -4,214 -3,693 -4,660 -3,743 -5,126 5,137 -20,388 -33,643 35,380 — 44,498 -30,717 -57,202 -59,469 -72,746 -98,982 34,241 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,460 54,484 77,921 6,026 10,546 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 13,697 15,442 4,785 12,362 23,696 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,157 39,042 73,136 1981: I II Ill -22,796 -21,566 -17,257 IV...... -47,677 -4,529 -905 _4 262 -1,375 -1,518 -1,257 -987 -16,892 -19,143 -15,996 -46,952 8,470 13,464 16,880 39,107 5,361 -2,861 5,835 8,119 3,109 16,324 22,715 30,988 1982: I -31,201 -37,790 II p Ill ... -26,364 -1,089 -1,132 -794 -904 -1,547 -2,418 -29,208 -35,111 -23,152 25,080 29,619 16,054 -3,122 1,998 2,102 28,202 27,621 13,952 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 2,644 18,388 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Statistical d iscrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 1,139 1,152 1,093 -2,654 -1,620 5,753 10,367 -2,465 11,866 25,212 28,870 25,809 1,093 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy TT Q n ffj«; a l assets, net l (unadjusted, end of period) 14,378 15,883 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 9,988 6,703 -374 9,497 -829 503 -2,144 2,474 30,410 29,582 29,715 30,074 5,045 5,940 14,537 -899 574 -1,973 29,944 30,671 30,993 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasurv. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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