Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1982
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97th Congress, 2d Session BW»KOFC"*"~- Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1982 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1982 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) FREDERICK W. RICHMOND (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) PAULA HAWKINS (Florida) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MURRAY L. WEDDENBAUM, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN JERRY L. JORDAN [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ''Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23,1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy ($3.45 foreign), or by subscription at $21.00 per year ($26.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 The 1980 Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at $5.00 a copy from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office. It should be noted that many of the series have undergone major revisions since the Supplement was published in the fall of 1980. ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1981, gross national product rose $30.3 billion or 4.1 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) fell 4.7 percent from the third quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 9.3 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS \ 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 J I I 1973 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I I 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Export s and imf )orts of goocIs and ser vices Go vernment purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports 4. 1 Exports Imports Total 68.8 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 183.3 219.8 281.3 339.8 365. 6 64.7 76.7 95.4 132.8 128. 1 157. 1 187.5 220.4 267.9 316. 5 340.6 State and local Final sales Total National defense 234.9 253. 1 270.4 304. 1 339.9 362. 1 394.5 432.6 473.8 534.7 591.3 96.2 101.7 102.0 111.0 122. 7 129.2 143. 9 153.4 167.9 198.9 230.3 70.2 73. 1 72.8 77.0 83. 0 86.0 93. 3 100.0 111.2 131. 7 154. 4 26.0 28.5 29. 1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.4 56.7 67.2 75.9 138.7 151.4 168.5 193. 1 217.2 232. 9 250.6 279.2 305.9 335.8 361.0 1, 070. 0 1, 175. 7 1, 307. 9 1, 420. 1 1, 556. 1 1, 706. 2 1, 897. 0 2, 133. 9 2, 396. 4 2, 632. 0 2, 907. 8 Nondefense 1, 077. 6 672.2 1, 185. 9 737. 1 1, 326. 4 812.0 1, 434. 2 888. 1 1, 549. 2 976.4 1, 718. 0 1, 084. 3 1, 918. 0 1, 205. 5 2, 156. 1 1, 348. 7 2, 413. 9 1, 510. 9 2, 626. 1 1, 672. 8 2, 924 8 1, 857. 8 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206. 1 257.9 322. 3 375. 3 415.8 395. 3 450.7 II— 2, 564. 8 1, 626. 8 2, 571. 7 1, 631. 0 8.2 III_. 2, 637. 3 1, 682. 2 IV... 2, 730. 6 1, 751. 0 415.6 390.9 377. 1 397.7 17.1 44.5 23.3 337.3 333.3 342.4 346. 1 329. 1 316.2 297.9 322.7 516.8 530.0 533. 5 558.6 190. 0 198.7 194.9 212.0 125.0 128.7 131.4 141.6 64.9 70.0 63.5 70.4 326.8 331. 3 338.6 346.6 2, 569. 1 2, 557. 4 2, 653. 4 2, 748. 0 1981: I... .2, 853. 0 1, 810. 1 II.-. 2, 885. 8 1, 829. 1 III... 2, 965. 0 1, 883. 9 IV *. 2, 995. 3 1, 908. 4 437. 1 458. 6 463.0 443.9 29.2 20.8 29.3 20. 8 367.4 368.2 368.0 358.9 338.2 347.5 338.7 338.2 576.5 577.4 588.9 622.2 221. 6 219.5 226. 4 253. 6 145. 2 148.2 154. 1 170. 1 76.4 71.3 72.2 83.5 354.9 357.9 362.5 368.6 2, 848. 5 2, 862. 5 2, 937. 6 2, 982. 6 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 * 1980: I .7 14.2 13.4 26. 8 13.8 -4.2 -.6 13.4 23.3 25. 0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross private dcmiestie Exisorts of g<5ods Govern!went pure bases of iicivestmem and servici3S PergoocIs and ser vices sonal conGross Change national sump- NonResi- in busiproduct tion State Mo-f JNet resiExports Imports Total Federal expend- dential dential ness in- exports and fixed ventoitures local fixed ries 8. 1 10.2 17.2 11.6 -6.7 7.6 1.6 .7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 21.9 24.6 37.7 52.0 44.5 71.0 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.6 110. 1 113.2 127.5 146.9 161. 1 159.6 69.3 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 91.3 103.0 109.2 109. 1 115. 1 250. 1 253. 1 253. 5 261.2 266.7 266.8 272.3 277.8 281.8 290.0 291.8 103.7 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.7 99.8 101. 7 108.1 111.6 146.4 151.4 157.6 164.5 169.3 170.0 171.6 178.0 180. 1 181.9 180.2 1, 114. 3 1, 175. 3 1, 237. 7 1, 236. 8 1, 240. 4 1, 292. 6 1, 359. 7 1, 422. 9 1, 472. 9 1, 483. 6 1, 502. 4 54.2 43. 1 44.7 50.6 -.9 1.3 — 5. 0 -7.2 50. 1 51.7 57.6 48.5 165. 9 160.5 160.5 157.4 115.8 108.9 102.8 108.9 290. 1 291.9 288.2 289.8 107.6 110.7 106.9 107.4 182. 5 181.2 181.3 182.4 1, 502. 8 1, 462. 0 1, 476. 9 1, 492. 7 51.0 47.8 42.7 39.3 -1.4 10.8 14.9 6.2 50.9 46.2 43.2 37.5 162.5 161.5 160. 1 154.2 111.6 115.4 116.9 116.7 293.6 289.5 288.3 295.6 111.2 108.7 109.6 116.9 182.5 180.7 178.8 178.8 1, 517. 8 1, 499. 6 1, 500. 9 1, 491. 4 1, 122. 4 1, 185. 9 1, 255. 0 1, 248. 0 1, 233. 9 1, 300. 4 1, 371. 7 1,436.9 1, 483. 0 1, 480. 7 1, 510. 1 696.8 737. 1 768.5 763.6 780.2 823.7 863.9 904.8 930.9 935.1 958.8 112.2 121.0 138. 1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140. 6 153.4 163.3 158. 4 162.2 53.7 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.6 62.4 59. 1 48. 1 45.2 1980: 1... .1, 501. 9 II... 1, 463. 3 III.. 1, 471. 9 IV... 1, 485. 6 943.4 919.3 930.8 946.8 165. 0 156. 1 155. 5 157.0 1981: I™ 1, 516. 4 IL._ 1,510.4 III- 1, 515. 8 IV ». 1, 497. 6 960.2 955.1 962.8 957.2 162.0 161.1 163. 9 161.7 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 » Final sales 7.8 12. 3 14.0 10.2 -2.9 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross national product Persona 1 consump>tion expenditures Total Gross private dom estic mves tment Nonres- ResiNonDurable durable Services idential dential goods fixed fixed goods Expoits and imports of goods and s(jrviees G ovenmtient purchases of goods and s<srvices Exports Imports Federal State and local 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 * 96.01 100. 00 105. 69 114. 92 125. 56 132. 11 139. 83 150. 05 162. 77 177. 36 193. 69 96.5 100.0 105.7 116.3 125.2 131.6 139.5 149. 1 162.3 178.9 193.8 99.0 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.2 144.8 156. 0 166.5 96.6 100.0 108. 3 123. 1 132. 1 137.0 143.4 153.2 169.8 188.6 202.4 95.6 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.9 150. 1 162. 1 178. 1 195.2 96.2 100. 0 103.8 115. 4 132.2 138.6 146.2 157.7 171.3 186.8 202.4 94.8 100.0 109. 1 120.3 131. 0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.6 233.3 97.0 100.0 112.7 134.7 149.6 155.2 161.9 172.4 191.5 211.0 229. 1 93.3 100.0 116.7 164.6 179.5 185.5 205.4 214.0 245.4 290. 1 295.9 92. 7 100. 0 106. 3 114.9 126. 0 133.5 142. 9 153.7 165. 1 183.9 206.4 94.7 100. 0 106. 9 117. 4 128. 3 137. 0 146. 0 156. 9 169. 8 184. 7 200. 3 1980: I II III IV 171. 23 175. 28 179. 18 183. 81 172.9 177.0 180.7 184.9 151.9 154. 1 157.5 160. 5 182.9 186.2 190.0 195.2 171.6 176.0 180.3 184.3 180.5 185.7 189. 1 192.4 212.6 217.4 221. 9 223.3 203.4 207.6 213.4 219.9 284.2 290.4 289.7 296.4 176. 5 179.5 182.4 197.4 179. 1 182.8 186.7 190.0 1981: I II III. IV* 188. 14 191. 06 195. 61 200. 01 188.5 191.5 195.7 199.4 162.3 165.4 168.3 170.4 199.2 200.4 203.7 206.2 188.4 192.2 197.6 202. 3 195. 0 201.4 204.5 208.7 228.7 231.8 235.4 238.7 226. 1 228.0 229.8 232.8 303. 1 301.2 289.8 289.8 199.4 201. 9 206.6 217. 0 194.5 198.0 202.8 206.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national p roduct Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Period 1981: I_ II III... IV* Chain price index Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 11.4 5.4 5.0 4.2 5.7 8.7 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.3 8.5 9.0 9.2 5.3 4.9 4. 1 5.9 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.2 7.5 8.7 8.6 9.3 5.2 4.8 4.0 5.9 9.4 9.0 5.8 6.4 7.6 9.4 9.6 9.4 6.9 8. 1 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.2 11.9 12. 0 10.7 11. 1 2.2 3.7 5.8 4.3 -.6 2.2 5. 6 4.9 4.7 2.9 .5 2.5 4.6 4.3 3.7 5.7 10. 1 7.6 5.2 6.0 6.8 8.9 10.2 8.3 4.6 4.3 3.6 6.0 10.3 7.7 5.3 6.3 7.1 9.3 10. 6 9.0 4.5 4.2 3.5 6.0 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.3 7.2 9.6 11.0 9.1 12.6 — 1. 1 11.8 14.9 3.1 -9.9 2.4 3.8 9.3 9.8 9.2 10.7 8.7 8.8 9.3 10.5 9.7 9.3 9.0 10.4 12.9 — 1. 0 14.3 17.4 .8 -9.8 5. 1 7.0 12.0 9.8 8.8 9.7 12.5 9.7 9.5 10. 1 13.2 9.9 9.5 10.1 19.2 4.7 11.4 4. 1 8.6 -1.6 1.4 -4.7 9.8 6.4 9.9 9.3 9.8 7.7 10.0 8.5 10.2 7.9 9.5 8.5 14.2 4.3 12.5 5.3 5.8 -2.1 3.3 -2.3 8.0 6.5 9.0 7.8 10.3 6.5 8.7 7.4 10.9 6.5 8.2 7.2 as 1980: I II III IV Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) -0.2 3.4 5.7 5.8 -.6 — 1. 1 5.4 5.5 4.8 3.2 -.2 2.0 5.2 8.6 10. 1 11.8 8. 1 8.0 10.9 11.6 12.4 12.0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981* Implicit price deflator Pei'sonal con sumption expenditiires NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross d omestie prodi ct of nonfin ancial corpc>rate busi ness (hillio ns of doll Eirs) Current dollars 563.7 1970 609. 9 1971 678. 0 1972 759.4 1973 818.9 1974 890.0 1975 1, 001. 3 1976 1, 129. 5 1977 1, 270. 7 1978 1, 417. 0 1979 1,535.2 1980 1, 733. 0 1981 » 1, 502. 1 1980: I I I _ _ _ 1, 496. 3 III... 1, 537. 7 IV.... 1, 604. 7 1981: I 1, 690. 1 II.— 1, 716. 3 IIL._ 1, 760. 3 current-dol lar cost a nd profit ]Der unit Total cost and profit 2 1972 dollars 599.6 626.8 678.0 731.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 799.0 845. 1 873.3 867.2 896.7 878.2 853. 2 860.4 876.9 901.0 901.2 901. 1 0. 940 .973 1. 000 1. 038 1. 156 1.282 1.343 1.414 1. 504 1.623 1.770 1.933 1. 710 1.754 1.787 1.830 1.876 1.904 1.954 Capital consumption Comallowpenances Indirect sation business with 3 of taxes capital employconees sumption adjustment 0. 087 .091 . 092 .093 . 112 . 137 . 141 . 146 . 153 . 169 . 191 .208 . 180 . 192 . 196 . 197 . 197 . 204 .211 0. 106 . 113 . 113 . 114 . 127 . 140 . 141 . 144 . 148 . 153 . 176 .204 . 161 . 173 . 181 . 188 . 199 . 202 .206 i Output is n leasured by gross dome.stic product of nonflnan cial corporal e 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Net interest 3f OUtpU t Corpo rate profi ts with inventc>ry valuation and capit at consuiiiption nidjustmen ts Total 0.631 0.028 0.088 . 641 . 029 .099 . 107 .028 .659 .692 .031 . 107 . 042 .090 .786 . 124 .044 .837 . 144 .040 .878 . 924 . 042 . 158 . 044 . 163 .996 1.092 . 052 . 157 . 065 . 143 1. 196 .072 . 163 1.285 . 151 .060 1. 158 . 132 .064 1. 193 . 141 .067 1.203 .068 . 146 1.230 . 169 1.244 .067 . 163 .070 1. 266 .073 1.295 . 169 «Witli (dollars) i Profits tax liability 0.045 . 047 .049 .055 . 059 .059 .071 . 074 .080 .080 . 073 .066 .085 . 061 .070 .075 .076 .064 .066 Profits after4 tax 0.043 . 052 .058 .053 . 030 .065 .073 . 084 .083 .077 . 070 .098 .066 .071 .071 .071 .093 .098 . 103 ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 7. 126 7.467 7.688 7.891 7.622 7.881 8. 132 8.348 8.384 8.384 8.432 8.639 8.369 8.359 8.496 8.496 8. 628 8.674 8.663 4.498 4.788 5.068 5.458 5.989 6.596 7.138 7.713 8.347 9. 159 10. 085 11.099 9.694 9.973 10. 218 10. 450 10. 737 10. 978 11.221 inventory valuation and capital c onsumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Comtion of employees * National income Period Propr letors1 mcom e with inventor y valuation anc : capital consuroption adjust ments Farm Nonfarm Rental Corpor ate profits5 with inventory va luation and capital consumptio a adjustm ents Profits with inv entory valual:ion adjustment and ivithout csipital consum ption adjiistment of per- with capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valua- 652.2 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 1, 036. 3 1, 152. 3 1, 299. 7 1, 460. 9 1, 596. 5 1, 771. 5 15.0 18.7 32.8 26.5 24. 6 19. 1 18.4 26. 1 30.8 23.4 22.3 54.4 58. 1 61.0 62. 2 65.4 75.0 85. 1 91. 0 100.7 107.2 112.4 20.2 21. 0 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 25. 1 27.4 30.5 31.8 33.6 83.2 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138. 1 164 7 185.5 196.8 182.7 191.5 82.0 940 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 176.7 199. 0 212.7 199.8 205.4 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132. 1 166. 3 192.6 223. 3 255.4 245.5 232.9 -46 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 11.6 -147 -15.8 -243 -42.6 -45.7 -27.5 1980: I II III IV.. 2, 088. 5 2, 070. 0 2, 122. 4 - 2, 204. 8 1, 558. 0 1, 569. 0 1, 597. 4 1, 661. 8 25.7 23.3 22. 1 22.5 107.9 101.6 107.6 111.6 31.2 31.5 32.0 32.4 200.2 169. 3 177.9 183.3 215.6 186,9 195.9 201.0 277.1 217.9 237.6 249.5 1981: I II... III.. IV* 2, 291. 1 2, 320. 9 2, 377. 6 2, 395. 5 1, 722. 4 1, 752. 0 1, 790. 7 1, 820. 9 18.9 21.7 24.7 23.8 113.2 112.5 112.4 111. 5 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.5 203.0 190.3 195.7 217.7 205. 1 209. 1 257.0 229.0 234.4 > Includes employer contributions tor social insurance. (See also p. 5.) sumption adjustment Net interest adjustment 871.5 963.6 — 1, 086. 2 1, 160. 7 1, 239. 4 1, 379. 2 1, 546. 5 1, 745. 4 1, 963. 3 2, 121. 4 2, 346. 3 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981* Capital con- 1.3 2.7 2.7 46.5 51.2 60.2 -61.4 -31. 1 -41.7 -48.4 -1.8 -10. 1 -13.5 -12.0 -13.5 -15.9 -17.2 -13.9 -15.4 -17.6 -17.9 -17.8 87.2 100.9 115.8 143.4 179.8 215.0 165.4 175.3 185.3 193.3 -39.2 -24.0 -25.3 -21.5 -147 -147 -13.4 -12.8 200.8 211.0 220.2 228.0 76. 1 845 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondura ble goods Durable goocIs Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods 1 Motor vehicles and parts 672.2 737. 1 812.0 888. 1 976.4 1, 084 3 1, 205. 5 1, 348. 7 1,510.9 1, 672. 8 1, 857. 8 97, 2 111. 1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.8 199.3 212.3 211.9 232. 1 45.4 52. 4 57. 1 50.4 55.8 72.6 85.0 94 3 95.5 89.9 98.4 37.2 41.7 47. 1 50.6 53.5 59. 1 65. 8 72.9 81. 1 846 92.6 278.8 300. 6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441. 7 479.0 529.8 602.2 675.7 743.0 1980: I II III... IV.... 1, 631. 0 1, 626. 8 1, 682. 2 1, 751. 0 220.9 194.4 208.8 223.3 100.6 77.5 87.0 94.6 83.6 81.3 84 6 88.9 1981: I II III.... IV »._. 1, 810. 1 1, 829. 1 1, 883. 9 1, 908. 4 238.3 227.3 236.2 226.8 105.4 93.4 101.6 93.4 92.3 92.4 93.2 92.6 Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981" 1 _ — __ — — .._ Total includes other items not shown separately. Furniture and household equipment Total nondurable goods l Retail ssales of new pa ssenger cars ( nrlilJions of uilits) Services Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 144.2 154.9 172. 1 193. 7 213.6 230. 6 250. 3 276. 4 312. 1 345.7 381.5 50.6 55.4 61.4 64 8 69.6 75.3 82. 1 91.9 98.9 104.8 116.0 23.9 25.4 28.6 36. 6 40.4 44 0 48.2 52.7 68.4 89.0 948 296.2 325. 3 355. 2 393.2 437. 0 485 7 547.7 619.6 696. 3 785.2 882.7 8.7 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6. 6 6.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2. 1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 661. 1 664 0 674.2 703.5 336.2 338.4 347.7 360.4 102. 2 102.3 105.3 109.4 89.4 90.9 85.3 90.5 749.0 768.4 799.2 824.2 7.9 5.4 6.4 6.6 2.7 2. 1 2.3 2.5 726.0 735.3 751.3 759.3 372.5 377.8 386.5 389.4 113.4 115.8 117.5 117. 1 93.5 92.4 95. 1 98.4 845.8 866.5 896.4 922.2 7.4 5.6 6.9 5.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 Food Domestics Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $3.8 billion (annual rate) in January following a decline of $1.1 billion in December. Wages and salaries rose $3.9 billion in January, compared with a decline of $6.6 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 ,„...«""" 600 600 ,,....."""* OTHER INCOME 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS \ _ 200 200 160 160 120 120 100 100 80 1974 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted Wage j 3 Rental Personal Other Proprietc)rs income income and Total dividend labor 12 personal salary of income disburseincome Farm Nonfarm persons 4 income l ments annual rates] Less: PerNonPersonal Transfer sonal conf*% »«»v» farm interest paytributions personal income ments ° for social income * insurance 1, 168. 6 1, 265. 0 1, 391. 2 1, 538. 0 1, 721. 8 1, 943. 8 2, 160. 2 2, 404. 0 765.7 806.4 889.9 983.8 1, 105. 2 1, 236. 1 1, 343. 7 1, 482. 6 55.8 64.5 75.9 89. 0 102.2 118.6 137. 1 154. 2 26.5 24.6 19. 1 18.4 26. 1 30.8 23.4 22. 3 62.2 65.4 75.0 85. 1 91.0 100.7 107.2 112.4 23.5 23. 0 23.5 25. 1 27.4 30. 5 31.8 33.6 29. 1 29.9 36. 5 38.7 43.1 48.6 54.4 61.3 112.4 123.2 132.5 151.6 173.2 209.6 256. 3 308. 6 141.2 178.3 194.3 207.5 223.3 249.4 294.2 333.2 47.9 50.4 55.5 61.1 69.6 80.6 87.9 104.2 1, 131. 8 1, 229. 1 1, 359. 3 1, 505. 0 1, 679. 2 1, 892. 9 2,112.6 2, 353. 4 1981: Jan 2, 300. 7 Feb 2, 318. 2 Mar 2, 340. 4 Apr 2, 353. 8 May 2, 367. 4 June 2, 384. 3 July.... 2, 419. 2 Aug 2, 443. 4 Sept_.._ 2, 462. 6 Oct 2, 474. 7 2, 492. 0 Nov Dec ».-_ 2, 490. 9 1, 433. 1 , 442. 8 , 452. 8 , 459. 6 , 467. 3 , 473. 9 ,484.9 1, 500. 3 1, 510. 3 1, 517. 5 1, 527. 7 1, 521. 1 146.6 148. 0 149.5 150.9 151.6 153.0 154. 8 156. 3 157.8 159.2 160.5 161.9 19.9 18.7 18.2 20.2 21.7 23. 2 24.4 25.2 24.4 24.4 24. 0 22.9 112.8 112. 6 114.2 113.0 112. 2 112. 2 112.2 112. 4 112. 5 111.9 111.4 111. 0 32.5 32.7 32.9 33. 1 33.3 33. 5 33.7 33.9 34. 1 34. 3 34.5 34.7 57.4 58.2 58.3 59. 4 60.2 61. 1 62.4 63.0 63.5 63.9 64. 1 64.3 281.8 289. 1 295.2 297.9 300.6 304. 1 309.2 315.7 322.3 326. 3 329. 1 331.5 318.4 318.4 321.9 322.5 323.5 326. 5 341.9 341.7 343.0 343.6 347.4 350.0 101.9 102.3 102.6 102.9 103. 1 103.3 104.3 105.2 105.5 106. 3 106.8 106.3 2, 254. 8 2, 273. 2 2, 295. 4 2, 306. 4 2, 318. 1 2, 333. 1 2, 366. 4 2, 389. 3 2, 409. 0 2, 420. 6 2, 437. 7 2, 437. 2 1982: Jan *>___ 2, 494. 7 1, 524. 9 163. 2 20.6 110.8 349 64.5 333.8 351.9 109.9 2, 442. 7 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 9 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 8 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 1 With! inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. * Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose slightly in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 3,000 3,000 1973 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS T Period Personal tax Personal and income nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays * Per c apita dispc>sable persona income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Bi][lions of d ollars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 9 1, 065. 2 150. 7 1, 168. 6 170.2 1, 265. 0 168.9 1, 391. 2 196.8 1, 538. 0 226.5 1, 721. 8 258.8 1, 943. 8 302.0 2, 160.2 338.5 2, 404. 0 388. 1 914.5 998.3 1, 096. 1 1, 194. 4 1, 311. 5 1, 462. 9 1, 641. 7 1, 821. 7 2, 015. 8 1972 dollars Per cap>ita personal ccmsumption exp enditures Current dollars 1972 dollars Do!lars 835.5 913.2 1, 001. 8 1, 111. 9 1, 237. 5 1, 386. 6 1, 555. 5 1, 720. 4 1, 908. 5 79.0 85. 1 94.3 82.5 74.1 76.3 86.2 101.3 107.3 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,954 6,571 7,293 8,002 8,769 4,083 4,013 4, 055 4,161 4,266 4,409 4,493 4,473 4,525 3,831 4,152 4,521 4,972 5, 472 6,058 6,712 7,348 8,082 3, 626 3, 570 3, 612 3,777 3,922 4,064 4, 135 4,108 4, 171 Percent change Saving in real as percent of per disposcapita able disposperable sonal perincome sonal income Per cent 5.8 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.5 3.4 1.9 -.4 1.2 Population ( thousands) * 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.3 211,939 213,898 215, 981 218, 086 220, 289 222, 629 225, 106 227, 654 229, 869 4.9 6.2 226, 727 227, 332 227, 977 228, 578 229, 051 229, 537 230, 142 230, 747 Seas onally ad; usted annual rates 1980: !__>_ 2, 088. 2 323. 1 II._. 2, 114. 5 330.3 III_. 2, 182. 1 341.5 IV.. 2, 256. 2 359.2 1, 765. 1 1, 678. 7 1, 784. 1 1, 674. 1 1, 840. 6 1, 729. 2 1, 897. 0 1, 799. 4 86.4 110.0 111.4 97.6 7,785 7,848 8,074 8,299 4,503 4,435 4,468 4,488 7,194 7,156 7,379 7,660 4,161 4,044 4,083 4,142 -5.9 3.0 1.8 6. 1 5. 1 1981: I... 2,319.8 II— 2, 368. 5 III,. 2, 441. 7 IV*. 2, 485. 9 1, 947. 8 1, 985, 6 2, 042. 0 2, 087. 9 88.9 106.6 106.9 126.7 8,504 8,651 8,873 9,048 4,511 4,517 4,535 4,539 7,903 7,969 8,186 8,271 4,192 4,161 4, 184 4,148 2.1 .5 1.6 .4 4.6 5.4 5.2 372.0 382.9 399.8 398.0 1, 858. 1, 879. 1, 935. 1, 961. 9 0 1 2 »Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). »Includes Armed Forces abroad, Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 6 0.2 6. 1 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter, gross farm income fell $0.8 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $0.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2001 I 200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME 20 20 V 10 J L 1973 J I L 1974 J I 1975 L J 1976 L i i i I 1977 1978 I I I 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE I I 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS; [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Grc ss farm incc>me Net farni income Cashinarketing rejeeipts Period Total * Total Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory2 changes Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 8 1973 1974... 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 98.9 98.3 100.3 101.8 108.7 127.5 151.9 150.5 87. 1 92.4 88.2 94.8 96. 3 112.9 131.9 136.4 45.9 41.4 43.0 46.1 47.6 59.2 68.5 67.4 41. 1 51.1 45. 1 48.7 48.7 53.7 63.4 69.0 3.4 -1.6 3.4 -2.4 1.0 .6 5.3 2.0 65.6 72.2 75.9 83. 1 90.3 101. 1 119.2 130.7 33.3 26.1 24.5 18.7 18.4 26.5 32.7 19.9 25.1 17.7 15.2 11.0 10.2 13.5 15.1 8.1 1980:1 II III IV 149. 3 145.8 151.9 155.1 133.0 131.9 139.2 141.5 66.3 64.0 68.9 70.4 66.7 67.9 70.3 71. 1 .9 1.9 -3.7 -3.3 125.9 128.9 132.2 135.6 23.4 16.9 19.7 19.5 9.9 6.9 7.9 7.6 1981:1 II III IV *. 159.2 163.9 167.6 166.8 142.5 143. 1 143.8 140.5 69.8 68.9 69.4 67.0 72.7 74.2 74.4 73.5 -.5 3.4 6.0 7. 1 139.3 141.0 142.9 142.8 19.9 22.9 24.7 24.0 7.5 8.5 8.9 8.5 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 90-888 0 - 8 2 - 2 * Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1981 corporate profits before tax rose $5.4 billion (annual rate) while after-tax profits rose $3.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 160 120 120 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS 80 80 40 40 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits aftei tax >ry valueition Profil bs (before tax) wit i inventt adjustn lent 1 Dome Btie indu stries IS onfinanc 3ial Period Total » Total 1971 1972 1973__ 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978. 1979 1980 1981 *_ 1980: I II ___ ... Ill IV 1981: I II. Ill IV* ManuFinancial Total1 facttiring Wholesale and retail trade Tax liability Total Dividends Undistribu ted profits Inventory valuation adjustment 82.0 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151. 6 176.7 199.0 212.7 199.8 205.4 215.6 186.9 195.9 201.0 74.9 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 161.2 179.3 182.4 168.7 181.4 179.0 157.5 165.0 173.4 14. 1 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.5 29.3 31. 6 30.6 24.2 33.3 30. 1 28.7 30.5 60.8 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120. 3 137.7 150. 0 150.8 138. 1 157. 1 145.7 127.5 136.2 142.9 34. 1 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 76.2 85.3 88.9 74.5 83.5 92. 1 61.3 68.5 76.2 11.7 13.4 13.9 12.5 21. 3 22.4 27.0 24.5 23.0 20.9 28.3 14.8 25.9 20.4 22.6 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132. 1 166.3 192.6 223.3 255. 4 245.5 232.9 277. 1 217.9 237. 6 249.5 37.5 41. 6 49.0 51.6 50. 6 63.8 72.6 83.0 87.6 82.3 77.6 94.2 71.5 78.5 85.2 49.0 58.9 76.6 85. 1 81.5 102.5 120.0 140.3 167. 8 163.2 155.3 182.9 146.5 159. 1 164.3 22.9 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 39.9 44. 6 50.2 56.0 63. 1 53.9 55.7 56.7 57.7 26. 1 34.5 49. 6 55.2 50.7 65. 1 80. 1 95.7 117.6 107.2 92. 1 128.9 90.7 102.4 106.6 4. 6 -6. 6 20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -15.8 -24.3 -42.6 -45.7 -27.5 -61.4 -31. 1 41.7 -48.4 217.7 205. 1 209. 1 192.3 182.3 184.6 28.6 24.3 22.7 163.7 158.0 161.9 90.4 84.4 85. 1 27.5 28.4 30.1 257.0 229.0 234,4 87.7 76.4 78.1 169. 2 152. 7 156.3 59.6 62. 0 64.8 66.0 109.6 90.6 91.5 -39.2 -24.0 -25.3 —21. 5 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption ljustments. 1 Includes rest o! the world, not shown separately. 8 Profits before tax * Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter, business fixed investment rose $2.4 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays rose $4.7 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases fell $2.3 billion. Residential investment outlays declined $6.7 billion. There was a $12.6 billion increase in inventories following a $27.5 billion increase in the third quarter. IHLLIONS OF DOI.LARS BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS 500 500 SEA SONALLY ADJUSTED >ANNUAL RATES ^^^ A^n 1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMES FIG INVESTMENT 400 ^^ ^^y^ /^ \ OCA S^~] ^^r^ ^ J0^ \ 350 ^ / OAfl / . ^' ¥ NONRES IDENTIAL FIXED IN^/ESTMENT ^^ y^**1 250 s^X~^ ^- 450 ( *'"* ++"*** "?ftf> .*•*""* 250 >" 200 ****** *»«« 150 150 RESIPENT1A . FIXED INVESTM ENT—^^t-i — 100 ,.,-.-^J """"^•^r^.^,., 50 ^ -50 I I 1973 * ^,.—.,.tni....% i I I 1974 i I i **, 100 50 /'"''••X,,,' + \ l ,CH ANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES \ -n*nvm*******~ % •>^.^ .„««««»», I 1975 I I I I i 1 1977 1976 i 1 1978 I I 1979 I I Q I I 1980 I I i 1981 50 COUNCIL C F ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT C F COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] "Pofinrl 1971. 1972. 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 " 1980:1 II III IV 1981: I II_ III_ IV "_.. Gross private domestic investment 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 Non residential fixed investment Pro- Total 107.9 121.0 143.3 156. 6 157.7 174. 1 257.9 322.3 375.3 205.5 395.3 450.7 296.0 415.8 242. 0 279. 7 415. 6 328. 3 297. 8 390.9 377. 1 397.7 437. 1 458. 6 463.0 443.9 289.8 294.0 302. 1 315.9 324. 6 335. 1 337.5 Structures ducers7 dur- able equipment 40.5 44. 1 51. 0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.6 78.7 96. 3 108.8 125.4 108.2 108.4 107.3 111.5 117. 2 123. 1 128.3 133.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Re*sidential fb:ed investrrlent 67.4 76.9 92. 3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.9 163. 3 183.4 187. 1 202.9 189.7 181,4 186. 8 190.7 198.7 201.5 206.8 204.5 Non- Total 50.9 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111. 2 118.6 105.3 105.4 115.2 93.6 99.2 113.0 116.7 110.7 100.5 93.8 farm structures 48. 9 61.5 65.6 54. 8 52.4 68.8 91.9 106.9 113. 9 100.3 99.9 110. 1 88.9 94.5 107.6 111.4 105.4 94.9 88. 1 •n Farm structures 0.7 .7 .7 1.3 1.0 1. 1 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.2 2. 1 2. 3 2.5 Pro- Change in business inv entories ducers1 dur- able equipment 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2. 1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 Total 7.7 Nonfarm 6.4 9,6 10.2 18.5 14. 1 -6.9 11.8 21.0 22.2 17.5 -5.9 17.0 15.2 16. 0 -10.5 13.0 20.2 21.8 13.4 -4.7 14. 6 2.5 7.4 1.5 6.1 3. 1 — 16. 0 -17.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 23.3 27.5 12. 6 4.5 — 12. 3 -14.0 6.8 21.5 23. 1 7. 1 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department November-December survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 7.4 percent above 1981. The survey conducted in October-November and reported in December indicated a sizable increase in spending in the first half of 1982/ the results from the latest survey suggest that first-half spending plans may have been revised downward since the previous survey. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 300 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING \i ,„..""" 100 100 80 80 MANUFACTURING 60 60 40 40 30 I. I L J 1974 I J L 1977 I 1976 1975 I I I J L 1979 1978 I I I 1980 30 1981 1982 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equi 3ment I Jonmanu facturin 5 Ma nufaetur ing Period Total Plant Equipment Trade and serv-J ices Communication andi other 2 19.83 19.98 22.37 26.79 29. 95 33.96 35. 44 37. 94 39.86 47.79 46.23 49. 30 56.54 68. 66 79.26 81.79 86. 27 91. 16 23.30 21.80 23.51 26.90 32.02 34. 83 36.99 41.27 43.88 61, 24 56.51 59.38 77,40 88. 16 112. 98 123. 32 12.23 11.70 35.58 34.96 81. 19 82.91 27.74 33.53 16.20 16. 80 17.55 16.59 11. 74 11.70 11. 61 13.20 36.05 37.84 39.55 38.09 83.43 85.88 87.55 88.27 36.97 36. 11 40.32 39.02 41.89 43.69 17.23 17.81 11.79 13. 89 40. 14 40.29 95. 12 96. 29 44.71 45.97 Total Durable goods Nondurable goods 92.69 53.21 92. 50 54.92 100. 25 59. 95 69. 22 117. 77 138. 54 79. 72 164. 73 98.68 178. 08 115. 81 128. 26 139. 34 27. 44 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58. 91 62.94 67.81 25.76 28.59 31.47 35. 18 39.29 47.61 56.90 65.32 71.53 103. 78 102. 79 111.50 128. 87 151. 52 171. 77 179. 81 194. 35 207. 08 4.62 6. 10 7.44 9. 24 10.21 11.38 13. 51 16. 80 18.79 8.23 8.68 8.89 9.40 10.68 12. 35 12.09 12.07 13.39 116. 40 118. 63 58. 19 59.77 58.21 179. 83 58.86 180. 95 13.86 15.28 312. 24 128. 57 183. 67 124. 50 316. 73 131. 05 185. 68 125. 49 328. 25 136. 40 191. 85 130. 11 332. 06 132. 22 61.24 63. 10 62.58 64.73 63.27 62.40 67.53 67.50 74 24 13 84 66.26 68.34 70.21 208. 98 72.24 214. 25 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 4 1982* 156. 98 64.29 157. 71 65. 21 171. 45 71.20 198. 08 80.31 231. 24 92.70 270. 46 105. 73 295. 63 117. 55 322. 61 346. 42 1980: IIL. IV-. 1981: I... II_. III. IV*. 296. 23 117. 59 178. 64 299. 58 120. 27 179. 32 1982:1*.. 345. 46 II*. 354. 83 136. 47 140. 58 » Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. J "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 Trans- Public Total Mining porta- utilities tion 187. 191. 198. 199. Starts of plant and equipment projects, manufacturing 8 35.41 32.90 33.33 » Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. * Planned capital expenditures as reported by business ia October-December 1981, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment was about unchanged in January, while unemployment fell 273,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 1974 1982 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER, COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period 1976 1977 1978* 1979— . 1980 1981 Noninstitutional population [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Unempl(jyment Civilian einploymenitTotal labor N onagri cultural 15 Civilian force Civilian UnemPart-time Total weeks Agriemploy- ploy- (includ- labor Total for ecoand culment ing force ment Total nomic l over tural Armed reasons Forces) 158, 294 88, 752 161, 166 92, 017 164, 027 96, 048 166, 951 98, 824 169,847 99, 303 172, 272 100, 397 7,406 6,991 6,202 6, 137 7,637 8,273 98, 101, 104, 107, 109, 110, 302 142 368 050 042 812 96, 99, 102, 104, 106, 108, 158 88, 752 009 92, 017 251 96, 048 962 98, 824 940 99, 303 670 100, 397 171, 229 171, 400 171, 581 171, 770 171, 956 172, 172 172, 385 172, 559 172, 758 172, 966 173, 155 173, 330 1982: Jan.. 173, 495 98, 139 98, 401 99, 364 100, 345 100, 855 101, 419 102, 612 102, 152 100, 389 101, 028 100, 502 99, 562 8,746 8, 614 8,271 7,561 7,731 8,485 8, 130 7,947 7,884 8, 216 8, 676 9,013 110, 048 110, 155 110, 492 110, 906 111,420 110, 565 110, 827 110, 978 110, 659 111, 170 111, 430 111, 348 107, 108, 108, 108, 109, 108, 108, 108, 108, 109, 109, 109, 923 034 364 777 293 434 688 818 494 012 272 184 3,334 3,369 3,298 3,373 4, 064 4,499 cent) * __ x\ 2 7,406 6, 991 6,202 6, 137 7,637 8,273 2,366 1,942 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 62. 1 62. 8 63.6 64. 1 64.2 64. 3 901 069 406 878 045 430 864 840 258 343 172 613 3,445 3,346 3, 343 3,470 3,405 3,348 3,342 3,404 3, 358 3,378 3,372 3,209 96, 456 96, 723 97, 063 97, 408 97, 640 97, 082 97, 522 97, 436 96, 900 96, 965 96, 800 96, 404 4, 451 4,227 4,290 4,200 4,264 4,033 4,374 4,350 4, 656 5,009 5,026 5,288 8,022 7,965 7,958 7,899 8,248 8,004 7,824 7,978 8,236 8,669 9, 100 9,571 2,391 2,322 2,269 2, 187 2,231 2, 363 2, 170 2,217 2,248 2,292 2,364 2,372 64. 3 64. 3 64.4 64. 6 64. 8 64.2 64. 3 64.3 64. 1 64.3 64.4 64.2 99, 581 3,411 96, 170 5,071 9,298 2,399 64.0 99, 100, 100, 100, 101, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 99, 97, 831 10, 183 111, 038 108, 879 i Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. * Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. •Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of 85, 421 88, 734 92, 661 95, 477 95, 938 97, 030 partici_ 4- _ pation rate (per- Seascmally adj Listed Uiaad justed 1981: Jan._ Feb__ Mar_ Apr.. May. JuneJuly. Aug__ Sept. Oct__ Nov_ Dec- 3,331 3,283 3,387 3,347 3,364 3,368 Labor revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. NOTE.—Data for 1970-81 revised based on 1980 census of population. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES in January the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent from 8.8 percent in December, PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 20 20 f 1 ^— n * BLA :K ./ AND C2THER 15 % » 15 * 1 A ^*A%/"*M-A TEENAGERS ' (16-19) rV"** VV*A X /* %. A V* * « V NV^^ ^**' 10 10 TO!"AL **p,,. ^^xx •^*_/*~' & —.<%«/ ^X~ •~**ww- -jjg —^3 5 __ — W HITE — IHHl&lSt*** 5 WOMEN 20 YEARS AN D OVER / * -x/>>, \ /* '"S.*"""*^ '«....^n^»»«'* -X>f- J( ^~~~sf -*/sx \ MEN 20 YEARS AhID OVER 0 1 1111111111 1978 111111111 11 1979 M|ii i i i I I 1980 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | I 1 1 II I i i l, 0 1982 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l i i i i I i i i i i M i II I l l l l I 1978 1979 1980 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIA N LABOR FORCE IN G ROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 11 11 1 l M 11 1981 1 | | 1 | I I 1 1 11 1982 COUNCIL OF :CONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] 1[Jnemployment nite (perc<snt of ch;ilian Jab or force in group ) By s ex and a ge By s<sleeted groups By race Period Total (all civilian workers) Men 20 years and over 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 7.7 7.1 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May__ June _ July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.8 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.3 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.7 1982: Jan 8.5 1 6. 1 5.8 7. 1 7.6 Women Both 20 sexes years 16-19 and years over White 12 Fulltime workers Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) * 4.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 10.1 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 10. 1 9.4 8.5 8.3 9.2 142 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 8.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.7 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 13.8 14.7 14.8 15.2 15. 2 15.7 7. 1 4.2 4.1 10.3 7.2 7.1 9. 1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.7 10.4 10.7 11.2 10. 1 10,7 10.6 10.8 10.5 6.9 7.1 9.2 9.6 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.5 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.6 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.5 8. 1 10.2 8.7 9.2 10.1 7.5 15. 1 8.2 5.3 10.4 8.4 9.6 10.0 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 19. 0 17.8 16.4 16. 1 17.8 19.6 6.3 6.7 6. 1 7.9 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 18.9 19. 1 19.2 19. 0 19.4 19.2 18.7 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.4 21.5 7.5 7.2 21.7 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families 13. 1 13.1 11.9 11.3 13. 1 5.9 5.2 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 7. 1 ExpeBlack rienced wage and and other salary workers 7.0 6.2 5.2 5. 1 4. 1 10.4 9.8 9.6 9.9 7. 1 7. 1 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.7 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 9.1 9. 1 NOTE.—Data for 1970-81 revised based on 1980 census of population. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9. 1 9.5 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 15 weeks fell, and the percentage out of work for 1 5 weeks and longer periods rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 30 - 20 10 - 1978 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Pereerjit distrib ution of unemployment b.f duratiem 1 Period Unemployment Less (thou- than 5 sands) weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 41.8 46.2 48.1 43. 1 41.7 41. 1 41.0 41.2 40. 6 41.1 40.8 42.6 41.5 42.2 42.7 42.3 42.8 41.3 30.5 31.0 31.7 32.3 30.7 29. 0 29. 9 30.3 31.5 31.7 30.0 29.6 30. 8 30.9 30.9 31.7 32.0 32.9 13.1 12.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 14. 0 13.5 13.3 13.4 12.9 15.2 14.0 13.5 13.7 13.4 13.5 12.6 13.0 27 weeks and over State pi%ograms Insured unem- Special unemployployment, ment all Insured New unem- Initial regular benefit enclaims proploy- claims grams trants ment (unad(unad- justed) 8 justed) 2 Percen t distribution of unemPi oyment 1jy reasoii * Job Job losers leavers Reentrants 13.0 14.1 14.3 11.7 11,2 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.4 12.4 11. 1 11.9 11.0 11.0 11.2 10.0 28.1 29.9 29.4 25.2 25.4 25.7 25.5 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.2 26.6 25.5 24.6 25.0 25.5 23.5 22.7 Weejkly avei age, thouimuds 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr__ May.. JuneJuly.. Aug— Sept.. Oct... Nov.. Dec-_ 1982: Jan___ 6,991 6,202 6, 137 7,637 8,273 8,022 7,965 7,958 7,899 8,248 8,004 7,824 7,978 8,236 8,669 9, 100 9,571 9,298 14.7 10.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 15.8 15.7 15.2 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.2 13.2 13.0 12.5 12.6 12.8 45.3 41.7 42. 9 51.7 51.6 50.0 51.1 50.2 50. 1 49. 8 51.6 49.5 51.4 52.8 52.4 53.6 56. 1 56.7 » Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. *Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Kico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (BE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). * FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. 9.7 9. 1 13.6 14.3 13.3 11.4 11.9 12.7 11.9 12.4 12.5 11.8 12. 0 12.0 12.2 11.7 11.5 10.9 10.7 11.5 2,655 2,359 2,434 3,350 3,048 3,053 2,920 2,954 2,949 2,904 2,897 2,767 2,844 2,961 3, 159 3,428 3,583 3,546 375 346 388 488 460 424 415 435 405 408 407 397 435 482 522 541 567 562 3,308 2,645 2,592 3,837 3,410 4,621 4,264 3,948 3,453 3,111 2,949 3,012 2,874 2,680 2,753 3,228 3,935 572 NOTE.—Household data for unemployment and unemployment by duration and reason revised for 1970-81 based on 1980 census of population. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT In January, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell by 237,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 22 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 90 20 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 22 MANUFACTURING 50 20 40 CONSTRUCTION GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 ,.,„.....-'•"" 20 1978 1979 !1980 1982 1981 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 N * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] Service-pi oducing Industrie s G oods-pro ducing iiadustries Total nonagricultural employ- Total * ment Construction 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 *. 79, 382 82, 471 86, 697 89, 823 90, 564 91, 542 23, 24, 25, 26, 25, 25, 352 346 585 461 718 673 3,576 3,851 4, 229 4,463 4,399 4,307 18, 997 19, 682 20, 505 21, 040 20, 300 20, 262 11,077 11,597 12, 274 12, 760 12, 181 12, 137 7,920 8,086 8,231 8,280 8,118 8, 125 56, 030 58, 125 61,113 63, 363 64, 847 65, 869 4,582 4,713 4.923 5,136 5, 143 5, 150 17, 755 18, 516 19, 542 20, 192 20, 386 20, 737 4,271 4,467 4,724 4,975 5,168 5,331 14, 551 15, 303 16, 252 17, 112 17, 901 18, 597 2,733 2,727 2, 753 2,773 2,866 2,772 12, 138 12, 399 12,919 13, 174 13, 383 13, 282 1981:Jan_._ Feb___ Mar__ Apr___ May__ June__ July.. Aug— Sept__ Oct___ Nov Dee *. 91, 091 91, 258 91, 347 91, 458 91, 564 91, 615 91, 880 91, 901 92, 033 91, 832 91, 522 91, 096 25, 647 25, 657 25, 705 25, 700 25, 705 25, 818 25, 939 25, 931 25, 930 25, 662 25, 418 25, 117 4,390 4,389 4,416 4,418 4,334 4,284 4,272 4,275 4,272 4,259 4,229 4, 191 20, 174 20, 177 20, 191 20, 332 20, 414 20, 424 20, 535 20, 505 20, 496 20, 241 20, 017 19, 750 12, 084 12, 074 12, 099 12, 207 12, 254 12, 278 12, 333 12, 332 12, 311 12, 115 11, 932 11, 727 8,090 8,103 8,092 8,125 8,160 8, 146 8,202 8, 173 8,185 8, 126 8,085 8,023 65, 444 65, 601 65, 642 65, 758 65, 859 65, 797 65, 941 65, 970 66, 103 66, 170 66, 104 65, 979 5,124 5,135 5,139 5,161 5, 148 5, 149 5,167 5, 170 5,186 5, 168 5, 147 5, 109 20, 529 20, 600 20, 635 20, 636 20, 714 20, 717 20, 796 20, 862 20, 872 20, 916 20, 838 20, 725 5,268 5,283 5,293 5,316 5,326 5,331 5,344 5,354 5,366 5, 360 5,355 5,367 18, 300 18, 343 18, 371 18, 475 18, 540 18, 560 18, 642 18, 667 18, 774 18, 788 18, 838 18, 848 2,799 2, 795 2,781 2,767 2,779 2,781 2,777 2, 770 2,765 2, 759 2,748 2,738 13, 424 13, 445 13, 423 13, 403 13, 352 13, 259 13,215 13, 147 13, 140 13, 179 13, 178 13, 192 1982: Jan *__ 90, 859 24, 761 4,052 19, 537 11, 588 5,359 18, 842 2,733 13, 163 Period 1 Trans- Whole- Finance, Gover nment 1 in^iiT 1I1S til—— por*a— sale ance, Services tion and State Non- Total and retail Federal and durable Total Durable real public trade goods goods local estate utilities Manufactur ing HTlH CillU 7,949 66, 098 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonasrieultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 5,108 20, 893 are are not not at at work worK because oecause of 01 industrial mausintu disputes, disputes, bad uau weather, weatuoi, etc., ctu., even 0*^* if» they i,u^ are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the workingworkingage ™™,iatint, population, «rhara«c whereas the the octimatAs estimates in in this tables table a™ are based based on on reoorts reports from npioying establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. are QtTa AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Averag e gross hourly «earnings Average weekly 1flours 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981* — 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov.. Dec » Manufsicturing Total private nonagricultural 1 Period ___ 1982: Jan » Total Overtime Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —tc>tal private nonagric ultural Manufacturing $4.09 4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6. 17 6. 70 7.27 7.98 80.0 86.7 92.9 100. 0 108.1 116.8 127.3 143.3 101.1 98.3 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 95.5 Index, 1<)77 = 100 Current dollars 36.9 36. 5 36. 1 36. 1 36. 0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 40.7 40.0 39.5 40. 1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39. 7 39.8 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 $3. 94 4.24 4. 53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 35.3 35.2 35.3 35.4 35.3 35.2 35.3 35.2 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.9 40.1 39.8 39.9 40.2 40. 3 40.1 40.0 40.0 39.3 39.5 39.3 39.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 6.99 7.04 7.09 7.14 7. 18 7.23 7.26 7.34 7.37 7.39 7.45 7.44 7. 69 7.74 7.80 7.90 7.95 7.99 8.02 8.08 8.14 8. 15 8. 18 8. 18 133.8 135.0 135.8 136.7 137.7 138.4 139.0 140.7 141.5 141.9 143.2 143.3 34.1 36.9 2.2 7.50 8.34 144. 8 3. 1 Percent eh ange from a year earlier 4 5 Total private nonagricultural l 1977 dollars s 741 Current dollars 1977 dollars 6.2 8.0 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.0 9.0 — o;i 92.8 92.8 92.8 93.1 93.0 92.9 92.2 92.6 92. 1 92.0 92.5 92. 1 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.0 8.9 9.3 9.3 8.6 8.4 8.1 -1.6 -1.3 -.9 -.3 -.3 -.5 -1.7 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 —.8 -.6 92.9 8.2 -. 0 —2.8 -.7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 -4.0 2.1 12.6 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total pri vate nonagricu Itural l Period Current dollars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981* 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec * 1982: Jan* . -— $145. 39 154.76 163. 53 175.45 189.00 203. 70 219. 91 235. 10 255. 20 246. 75 247. 81 250. 28 252. 76 253. 45 254.50 256. 28 258. 37 257. 21 258. 65 260. 75 259. 66 255. 75 Manufacturing 1977 dollars 3 $198. 35 190. 12 184. 16 186. 85 189. 00 189. 31 183. 41 172. 74 170. 13 171. 24 170. 32 171. 07 172. 18 171. 25 170. 92 169. 95 170. 09 167. 56 167. 74 168. 33 166. 98 164. 05 $166. 46 176. 80 190. 79 209. 32 228. 90 249. 27 269. 34 288. 62 317. 60 308. 37 308. 05 311. 22 317. 58 320. 39 320. 40 320. 80 323. 20 319. 90 321. 93 321. 47 319. 02 307. 75 $235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 73 295. 65 318. 69 342. 99 367. 04 395. 60 397. 94 380. 02 392. 33 390. 29 388. 98 388. 05 397. 41 397. 11 380. 80 404. 07 414. 77 412. 92 405. 05 Percent ch inge from a year euirlier, total pri vate nonagricuItural 5 Current dollars (Current dollars3 i1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. 1 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977=100 base. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. Construction Wholesale and retail trade $111.76 119.02 126.45 133. 79 142. 52 153. 64 164. 96 176. 46 190. 03 184.18 186. 12 187. 08 188. 63 189. 07 189. 71 190. 95 192. 28 194. 21 192. 04 193. 60 193. 63 191. 21 1977 dollars 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 ao 6.9 8.5 9.5 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.9 9.2 10.0 9.8 8.1 7.7 7.2 6.0 2.8 0.0 —4 1 —3. 1 1.5 1.2 .2 —3. 1 5.8 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -1.2 —.4 .1 r o -.7 ^ g -2.5 -2. 1 -2.0 -2.5 -5.0 * Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. * Based on unadjusted data. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data in 1977 dollars revised beginning 1977. Source." Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR Hours of 2all persems Outjmt* Output i>er hour of all p ersons Compe nsation per hlour 3 Unit labor cos;ts Implicit> price deflat or 4 NonPriNonPriNonNonPriNonPrivate Private Private Nonvate farm farm vate farm farm farm vate farm business business business business business business business business business business Dusiness Business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Period 1977== 100; qua rterly dat a seasonsilly adjust,ed 76.9 79.2 76.7 78.9 90.3 92.7 88.5 91.3 85.2 85.4 86.7 86.4 50.6 54.2 51.4 54.8 59.5 63.5 59.3 63.4 60.3 63.3 60.5 63.4 78.5 80.9 86.2 92.0 90.2 78.1 80.4 85.9 91.9 90.1 91.2 90.7 93.4 97.0 97.4 90.0 89.7 92.5 96.4 96.8 86. 1 89.2 92.4 94.8 92.7 86.7 89.6 93.0 95.3 93. 1 58.2 62.0 66.0 71.3 78.0 58.6 62.5 66.6 71.7 78.4 67.6 69.5 71.5 75.2 84.2 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.2 84.3 66.2 69.1 71.5 75.3 82.4 66.4 69.4 71.4 74.1 81.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 88.5 94.1 100.0 104.7 107.7 88.1 94.0 100.0 104.9 107.7 93.4 96. 1 100. 0 104.9 108.2 92.7 95.9 100.0 105. 1 108.7 94.8 97.9 100.0 99.8 99.5 95.0 98. 1 100.0 99.8 99. 1 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.4 119.3 86.0 93.0 100.0 119.0 90.2 94.8 100.0 108.6 119.9 90.5 94.8 100.0 108.7 120.0 90.4 94.7 100.0 107.4 116.9 89.9 94.5 100.0 107.0 116.2 1980 1981 » 106.8 108.9 106.8 108.8 107.5 108.5 108. 1 109. 1 99.3 100.4 98.8 99.7 131.5 144.6 130.8 143. 9 132.4 144.0 132.4 144.3 127.6 139.4 127.4 139.6 1980: I II III IV 108.7 105.4 105.7 107.5 108.5 105. 1 105.8 107.7 109.2 106.4 106.3 108.4 109.7 107.0 106.9 108.8 99.5 99. 1 99.4 99. 1 98.9 98.2 99.0 99.0 126.4 130. 1 133. 1 135.9 126.0 129.4 132.3 135.4 127.0 131.3 133. 9 137.1 127.4 131.8 133.6 136.8 123.0 126. 1 129. 1 132.2 122.9 126.3 128.8 131.9 1981: I II III .... IV "... 109.5 109.5 109.4 107.5 109.7 109.4 109.0 106. 9 109.2 109.7 109.0 109.1 108.8 100.3 101.2 100.9 99.2 100.0 100.4 99.9 98.2 139.8 143.3 146.5 148.5 139.2 142.4 145.7 147.9 139.4 141.6 145.2 149.7 139.1 141.9 145.8 150.6 135.4 137. 5 140.9 143.9 135.3 137.5 141.2 144.6 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 ... ioa2 108.4 108.4 ioas Pereeiat change ; quarterl]i data at seasonal!y adjustet 1 annual rates 1968 1969 5.1 2.9 5.3 2.9 1.7 2.6 2.0 3.2 3.3 .2 3.3 -.3 7.8 7.0 7.5 6.5 4.4 6.7 4. 1 6.8 4.0 4.9 4.0 4.7 -.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -1.9 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.9 -1.9 -1.7 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 -1.4 -.4 3.1 4.2 .4 .9 3.6 3.5 2.7 -2.3 .3 3.3 3.7 2.5 -2.4 7.4 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.2 11.9 6.6 3.1 2.8 4.9 12.1 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.4 9.4 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.7 10. 1 -1.9 6.3 6.3 4.7 2.8 -2.2 6.7 6.4 4.9 2.7 -4.1 2.9 4.0 4.9 3. 1 -42 3.4 4.3 5. 1 3.4 2.1 3.2 2.0 .2 -.7 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.4 10.1 9.6 8. 1 7.6 8.5 9.7 7.2 5. 1 5.5 8.6 10.4 7.4 4.7 5.5 8.7 10.4 9.7 4.7 5.6 7.4 8.8 10.3 5.1 5.8 7.0 8.6 2.0 -.9 1.9 -.6 .9 -.6 .9 2.3 3.3 2.1 -.2 -.3 2 1. 1 -.3 .9 10.2 10.0 9.9 10. 1 10.4 8.8 10.3 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.6 1.8 -11.5 1.1 6.9 1.4 -12.1 2.9 7.1 .2 -9.9 -.2 8. 1 1.1 -9.5 -.7 7.3 1.6 -1.8 1.3 -1.1 .3 -2.9 3.6 -.2 10.8 12.3 9.5 8.6 10.3 11.3 9.0 9.8 9.0 14.4 8. 1 9.8 9.9 14.6 5.3 10. 1 9.7 10.5 9.8 9.9 11.3 11.3 8.2 10.0 7.9 -. 1 -.3 -6.8 7.9 -1.1 — 1.4 -7.7 3.0 -3.5 .8 2 3.4 -2.5 .4 -1.0 4.7 3.5 -1. 1 -6.5 4.4 1.4 -1.7 -6.8 11.9 10.4 9.3 5.5 11.7 9.6 9.5 6.2 6.9 6.6 10.6 12.9 7.0 8.1 11.5 14.0 10.0 6.2 10.4 8.7 11.0 6.5 11.4 10.0 1 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 _. _ 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 » 1980: I II Ill IV 1981: I II III IV*... —_ C * Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. * Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 16 * Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domes* tic product. NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indeics shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 3.0 percent in January following decreases of 2.1 percent in December and 1.8 percent in November. The index for January was 8.1 percent below the year earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100' (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 180 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 UTILITIES 140 140 NT MINING 120 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 100 1978 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1979 1980 1981 1982 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 80 120 70 1978 1979 1980 1982 1980 1978 1981 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED "COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM ^ Period 1967 proportion 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 9 Total in dustrial produ< 3tion Percent Index, 1967= change from 100 year earlier 100. 00 117.8 -8.9 10.8 130. 5 138.2 5.9 5.7 146. 1 4.4 152. 5 -3.6 147. 0 2.7 151.0 [Seasonally adjusted] Indusstry produiction inde;xes, 1967 = 100 Mi mufacturi ng Total Durable Nondurable 87. 95 116.3 130. 3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 51.98 109.3 122. 3 130. 0 139.7 146.4 136. 7 140.5 85.97 126.4 141. 8 150. 5 156. 9 164.0 161.2 164.8 6.36 112.8 114.2 118.2 124. 0 125. 5 132. 7 142.2 5. 69 146.0 151.7 156. 5 l 161.4 166. 0 168.3 169. 1 73.4 81. 1 82.7 85.6 87.4 80.0 80.0 72.9 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 79. 1 78.5 141.0 140.8 142. 1 142.5 143.5 143.2 143.6 143.4 140.9 137.8 134.5 131.0 165.6 166.2 165.3 165.9 166.4 165.8 167. 1 167.3 165.9 162.8 160.6 157.6 140.4 143. 1 143.2 135.2 135.4 141. 7 146. 5 146.0 145.0 145.3 143.7 142.2 167.6 166.4 167.8 167.6 170. 7 172.7 173. 1 171.9 167.8 168. 1 168.9 167.5 82. 1 82. 3 82. 1 81. 1 81. 1 81.3 81.9 81.6 80.0 77.7 75.5 72.6 80.0 79.8 79.8 79.8 80.0 79.6 79.8 79.6 78.3 76.6 74. 9 73.0 126.0 153.2 141.7 167.9 69.8 70.4 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec * 151.4 151. 8 152. 1 151.9 152.7 152. 9 153.9 153. 6 151.6 149. 1 146.4 143.4 -1.0 — 1.9 -4.7 151. 1 151.2 151.6 152.0 152.8 152.4 153.2 153.2 151. 1 148.0 145. 2 141.9 1982: Jan » 139. 1 -8.1 137. 1 ,t 7 i .0 2.5 6.2 8. 1 9.7 8.0 5.0 1.7 • Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 8 8 Utilities Capacity/ utilizaticm rate, p ereent * MateMsmufacturi ng rials (Federal Reserve Federal ComWharseries) Reserve merce 2 ton series series series s Mining 77 81 83 84 83 78 78.9 84.9 87.4 90. 1 91.7 85.8 78 87. 1 78 86.6 76 86.5 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of ommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Final Ideducts Corisumer go<Dds Period Total Equip ment NonDurable durable goods goods 19.79 7.89 120.6 133.8 146.2 125.6 126.3 135.3 125. 1 121.4 135.2 141. 9 154.0 141.9 159.2 145.1 148.8 155.8 136.7 148.9 150.9 140.5 Total Interm ediate prod ucts Total Business Total 20.14 103.8 114. 5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.7 12. 6S 118.0 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 180.9 12.89 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145.1 154. 1 160.5 151.9 154.6 Construction supplies 6.42 128.4 139.8 134. 5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158. 0 140.9 142.1 47.82 115.7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 27.68 124.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 137. 1 145.3 149. 1 150.8 145.4 147.9 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June,. July A J Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 9 147.8 148.2 149.0 149. 9 151.3 151.4 152. 1 151.5 150.0 148.9 147. 1 145.8 146.9 147.8 148.3 148.9 150.7 150.3 150.7 149.6 147.8 146.5 144.2 142.3 140.1 141.2 143.6 144.3 147.3 147.9 146.5 142.5 140.4 136.3 129.7 123.7 149.6 150.5 150. 1 150.7 152. 1 151.2 152.3 152.5 150.8 150.5 150.0 149.8 149. 1 148.7 150. 0 151.4 152. 1 153.0 154. 1 154.0 152.9 152. 1 151.2 150.5 177.7 177.5 179.3 181.0 182.0 183.6 184.8 184.4 182.7 180.5 178.6 177.0 157.5 157.7 157. 1 156.3 156. 1 154.9 156.2 156.8 154.6 151.4 149.2 146.9 1982: Jan" 142.3 138.1 116.9 146.6 148.0 172.9 142.5 1 967 proportion 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 19771978 1979 1980 1981" -— - — Materials 39. 29 Supplementary group: Energy total 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138. 6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 12.23 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 129. 1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 148.4 148.9 149.0 147.9 146.5 143.4 144.3 144.0 139.7 135.2 130.6 128.2 153.8 154.3 154.4 152.9 153.4 154.0 155.3 155.2 152. 5 148. 5 144.6 139.3 138. 5 138.5 137.7 132. 6 133.5 138.0 141.2 140.5 136.8 136.9 137. 4 136.6 122.0 134. 1 136.5 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] D urable m anufactu res Primarj7 metals Non- Total Iron and steel Fabricated metal products 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981" 6.67 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 109.7 111. 1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 4.21 107. 1 122. 3 119.8 95. 8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113. 2 92.4 99.7 5.93 112. 1 124.7 124. 2 109. 9 123.9 131. 0 141. 6 148.5 134. 1 136.5 9. 15 116. 0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171. 0 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept._ Oct Nov Dec 9 114. 1 114.5 114.9 110.6 111.9 107.4 109.4 113.1 108.6 102.3 96.7 88.8 108.7 108.4 108. 0 103.4 105.6 98.5 99.7 105. 1 99.2 92.2 87.2 77.8 135.8 137. 6 139.2 139.5 138.4 139.3 140. 1 140.0 136.8 133.8 130. 5 126.6 121.2 Period 1982: Jan" 83.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 trical machinery Electrical machinery Noneiurable naanufact ures Transpsrtation equip ment Lumber and products Apparel products Print- Cheming icals Foods and and pub- prodlishing ucts 1.64 3. 31 109.4 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 4.72 112. 7 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.4 7.74 143.6 154.5 159.4 147.2 170. 9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207. 1 215.6 8.75 116.8 120. 9 124. 0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142. 7 147.5 149.6 152.0 123.8 121.6 120.2 121.6 122. 6 121. 1 122.6 122.6 122. 5 117.8 114.4 143.9 144.8 142.7 141.6 141.3 143. 1 144.4 146.1 145. 9 145. 6 144.7 146.3 218.9 219.8 218. 5 219. 8 220.6 218.4 221. 5 219. 2 216. 8 208.8 205.2 198.8 151.9 152. 5 152.4 151. 9 152.2 151. 3 151. 6 151.9 150.7 151.4 152. 7 152.0 Total Motor vehicles and parts 8.05 122.2 143.1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159. 4 175.0 172. 8 178.6 9.27 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 111. 1 122. 2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116. 1 4.50 135. 8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 120.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 123. 2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 118.8 167.3 168.3 169.2 169.7 172. 1 174. 1 176.7 176.4 173.9 169.7 167.9 164.8 177.6 174.9 177.4 178.8 179.9 180. 1 180.9 182.6 180.0 179.6 176.3 172.2 117.4 116. 1 119.5 121.3 123.7 123.4 119.8 115. 4 114.2 110.6 106. 1 103.6 120.0 119.9 127. 1 130.7 136.4 137.5 130.5 123. 1 120.4 113.8 105.5 100.7 127.4 126.2 125. 6 126.3 126.2 122.5 122.9 119. 1 113.2 109. 6 104.8 101.8 160.0 168.3 97.3 90.2 143.7 NEW CONSTRUCTION Constructio n contracts2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resid ential Total Total * Commercial and industrial New housing units Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Bil lions of dolliITS 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981* 135. 9 151. 1 173.8 205.6 230.8 230.3 236.7 95. 1 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.7 174.9 183.1 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.0 46. 5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 85.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 50.4 27.8 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.8 43.9 47.0 40.9 39. 1 38.2 45.9 49.1 55.4 53.6 66.0 79.0 100.0 114. 0 121.0 106.0 107.0 Seasonally adjusted Scasonalh/ adjusted arinual rates 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec » 1982: Jan » _. 48.3 48,5 48.7 259.0 254.5 250.3 246.5 235.9 234.0 233.9 229.8 230.9 229.9 231. 6 234.4 193.9 193.2 189.6 189.9 184.1 181.8 182.3 180.6 178.6 178.2 179.2 181.3 100.7 99.7 96.3 95.2 89.7 86.0 82.9 80.5 78.5 78.2 78. 1 79.6 74.2 75.1 73.0 72.9 67.7 64.3 60.5 58.1 55.9 52.8 50. 9 51.2 4&9 47.9 48.7 51.2 52,0 51.8 51.6 52.9 53.7 231.0 180. 1 77.9 51.1 54. 1 i Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. * F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 555 592 739 977 1, 059 904 906 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 45.8 46.5 47.2 48.2 48.0 48.4 48.4 48.2 48.0 65.2 61.3 60.6 56.6 51.8 52.2 51.6 49.3 52.2 51.6 52.4 53. 1 135 112 117 123 102 109 99 99 100 101 92 112 1,005 1,006 1,005 956 1,017 972 882 944 817 891 849 848 48. 1 50.9 116 675 449 45.0 447 NOTE.—Floor space data revised for 1981. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] Is ew private bousing unil:s Period 1974... 1975. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980.. 1981 Units started, by type of strticture Total 1 unit 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 2, 020. 3 1, 745. 1 1, 292. 2 1, 085. 3 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 1, 433. 3 1, 194. 1 852. 2 706.0 5 or more units 2-4 units 68. 1 64.0 85.9 121. 7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 381.6 2043 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 288. 1 New priv ate homes Homes for sale at end of 1 period Units authorized Units completed 1, 074. 4 939.2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 1, 800. 5 1, 551. 8 1, 190. 6 979.6 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 1, 867. 5 1, 870. 8 1, 501. 6 1, 264. 0 519 549 646 819 817 709 545 436 346 313 353 402 414 3 398 336 272 1,252 1,389 1,362 1,519 1,273 1,377 1,324 1,226 1,197 1,251 1, 016 1,132 539 511 518 467 481 417 408 364 335 359 390 457 334 338 328 329 326 318 312 308 304 291 282 272 353 277 Homes sold Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)1 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 Seasonally adjusted arinual rates 139 114 108 97 105 89 88 76 62 78 81 76 472 345 347 336 291 252 256 256 214 269 225 264 1,214 1, 165 1, 153 1, 186 1, 167 946 899 854 860 899 974 835 863 868 776 705 696 614 623 507 554 559 894 588 74 232 836 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct v Nov Dec * 1,585 1,294 1,318 1,301 1, 172 1,046 1,040 1982: Jan" 1 2 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 963 913 865 850 722 723 789 5.2 5. 0 5.0 5.0 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing starts and sales revised beginning 1979. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales fell % percent in December, while inventories fell $2% billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales fell 1 percent in January following no change in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 130 _ RETAIL INVENTORIES 120 110 100 90 80 RETAIL SALES 70 60 50 200 40 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 RATIO* 1.80 150 - 1.70 _ INVENTO RY-SALES R ATIO - 1 AH TOTA L BUSINESS N 1.50 1.40 1.30 170 100 1978 1982 \ - '** RETAIL 1 1 1 1 I I 1 M 11 1978 iMiiliini i i i i i Ii i i ii 1979 L***"gy'"| 1111 1111111 M M i l l II II 1981 1982 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total btisiness l Retail Whol esale Sales 2 Q _ 1 _ _ z2 bales - "« V^ * * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period - - ^ InvenCJ_1_._ 4 * bales tories 3 Inventories 3 In ventories33 DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores T/vi-eil TV** «1 lotai Dur- Nonable durable goods goods stores stores Inventoi y-sales rati o 4 Total business l Retail MUli ons of dc>llars, setisonally adjusted 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 » 1980: Dec 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec * 177, 625 182, 230 204, 277 229, 623 258, 724 294, 733 320, 540 349, 914 343, 752 349, 018 350, 334 349, 898 350, 923 349, 245 354, 443 354, 765 352, 785 353, 717 345, 287 345, 213 342, 733 285, 807 288, 375 318, 544 350, 678 395, 252 444, 224 475, 202 512, 322 475, 202 478, 451 484, 069 485, 467 487, 060 490, 254 494, 226 498, 098 502, 458 508, 132 511, 682 515, 165 512, 322 47, 748 46, 623 50, 694 55, 987 64, 715 76, 264 86, 991 96, 378 96, 591 98, 967 98, 016 96, 486 97, 577 96, 217 95, 564 97, 085 94, 674 96, 437 94, 542 96, 012 94, 592 56, 948 45, 082 56, 697 49, 012 64, 078 54, 781 72, 311 60, 435 83, 492 67, 057 93, 817 74, 529 105, 529 79, 721 112, 246 87, 054 105, 529 83, 443 104, 909 85, 463 106, 066 86, 810 105, 539 87, 608 105, 591 85, 855 105, 568 85, 501 107, 2^0 87, 385 106, 402 87, 356 107, 820 88, 593 109, 297 88, 699 109, 757 86,660 111,822 87, 222 112, 246 87, 060 1982: Jan" 1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing J Monthly average for year and total for month. 8 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 1 30, 964 33, 765 33, 631 39, 711 43, 744 49, 128 54, 894 59, 695 57, 460 58, 388 58, 482 59, 179 59, 499 58, 965 59, 853 59, 603 60, 154 60, 319 60, 341 60, 738 60, 420 71, 067 32, 861 71, 744 33, 356 79, 273 37, 841 89, 210 42, 970 101, 681 49, 898 108, 835 53, 274 111, 694 51, 853 123, 662 56, 970 111, 694 51, 853 111, 790 52, 234 113,507 52, 374 113, 404 51, 791 113, 963 52, 306 115,426 53, 529 117, 307 54, 880 119, 824 56, 199 121, 277 57, 121 122, 219 57, 124 123, 485 57, 492 123, 799 57, 464 123, 662 56, 970 38, 206 38, 388 41, 432 46, 240 51, 783 55, 561 59, 841 I 66, 692 59, 841 59, 556 61, 133 61, 613 61, 657 61, 897 62, 427 63, 625 64, 156 65, 095 65, 993 66, 335 66, 692 1.45 1.57 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.42 1.38 1.37 1. 38 1.39 1.39 1. 40 1. 39 1. 40 1. 42 1.44 1.48 1. 49 1. 49 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.39 1.42 1.43 1.38 1.35 1.34 1.31 1.31 1.29 1.33 1.35 1.34 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.42 1.42 1.42 86, 119 25, 735 60, 384 (see page 21). For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 20 14, 118 15, 247 18, 150 20, 724 23, 313 25, 401 24, 827 27, 359 25, 983 27, 075 28, 328 28, 429 26, 356 26, 536 27, 532 27, 753 28, 439 28, 380 26, 319 26, 484 26, 640 sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS Manufacturers' orders, shipments, and inventories fell in January 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 180 —SHIPME NTS TOTAL -. ^—-*"^^>^ 1 ^n -• ^~*>—"" - inn • \s" 240 - OAA - ^—^ :r— \ T5HI M M l l l l I II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i 1 1 1 M l l l l l l M l 1 1 i i i 1 1 i i BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 180 z-NEW OF^DERS ,--^]p—^x_ 160 ^xV ' 140— ^ -X^^ TOTAL 120 ' - DURABLE GOODS _..-— ****"""" " - i _ _ i i i i i l i n i i i 1 i i i 1 i i I ii 1 1 i 1 i 1 i i i ii i i i i i 1 i i i ii RATIO* INVENTO RY-SHIPM ENTS RAT 10 OA \ *-^lT-ix " NONDURABLE GOOD 5 "~ - /\ 18' 1A 1.4 K 1 1 i i i Ii i i iI 1979| M 1 1 1 I1 1 1 1 1 ,, ,, , 1 1980 1981 i 1111111111 1982 1? — 11111111111 I ! I 1 I I 111 1 I ;1978 1979 11111111111 1980 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total NonDurable durable goods goods 102, 874 112, 581 121, 646 137, 712 161, 390 171, 603 185, 226 43, 656 50, 689 59, 267 67, 848 75, 803 78, 003 84, 990 42, 939 48, 113 53, 934 59, 104 68, 138 75, 826 81, 491 1980: Dec.. 163, 719 83, 482 80, 236 257, 979 171, 603 1981: Jan... 164, 588 Feb_._ 165, 508 Mar._ 165, 804 Apr... 167, 491 May- 167, 527 June.. 171, 494 July- 170, 324 Aug__ 169, 518 Sept__ 168, 581 Oct _. 164, 085 Nov 161, 979 Dec._ 161, 081 83, 329 84, 215 85, 058 86, 327 86, 664 88, 770 87, 319 86, 841 86, 179 82, 583 81, 641 81, 146 81, 259 81, 293 80, 746 81, 164 80, 863 82, 724 83, 005 82, 677 82, 402 81, 502 80, 338 79, 935 1982: Jan*._ 157, 157 77, 925 79, 232 275, 314 184, 435 1 159, 934 175, 193 189, 157 210, 079 241, 572 257, 979 276, 414 261, 752 264, 496 266, 524 267, 506 269, 260 269, 709 271, 872 273, 361 276, 616 278, 440 279, 544 276, 414 174, 223 175, 620 176, 229 177, 123 177, 635 178, 676 180, 855 182, 221 185, 140 186, 718 187, 275 185, 226 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 28 Book value, end of period. End of period. « For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 1982 1981 Manufacturersr new orders l Durab e goods ManufacCapital Non- turers' Nongoods Durable Total Total indus- durable unfilled3 goods durable Total goods orders goods tries, nondefense Millions of dolkirs, season ally adjusted 86, 595 98, 802 113, 201 126, 953 143, 941 153, 828 166, 481 1975 1976 1977 1978. 1979 1980 1981 ! 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 11 i i 1 1 i I i 1 1 i i COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shjpments1 Manufact urers' inv entories2 Period y^ _ 40 11978 — - - 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 11 \ NONDURA 3LE GOODS, _ 60 M ', ^ 80 ii DURABLE C OODS --," .- —~- MONDURABLE GOODS _ __^-^ x - TOTAL „».-.- — — • ~ „--- =——"' 80 L__ — „.»<"«—.„ 4 ^_______^5 INVENTORES ^ - - ~--'~ -^ ^~;—.^y^*..- -S**' 3'20 280 ^^^ DURABLE 3OODS ' \ - 80 An BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) _ 57, 060 62, 612 67, 511 72, 367 80, 182 86, 376 91, 188 85, 149 99, 543 115, 027 131, 612 147, 576 155, 059 166, 504 42, 019 51, 398 61, 076 72, 358 79, 353 79, 264 85, 067 86, 376 166, 900 86, 577 87, 529 88, 876 90, 295 90, 383 91, 625 91, 033 91, 017 91, 140 91, 476 91, 722 92, 269 91, 188 165, 423 166, 987 167, 361 168, 584 169, 340 170, 913 172, 611 170, 063 168, 444 159, 005 159, 923 159, 469 84, 208 85, 446 86, 729 87, 180 88, 164 88, 303 89, 696 87, 350 86, 278 77, 804 79, 956 79, 764 90, 879 157, 594 78, 394 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio * 173, 829 182, 499 204, 814 261, 082 304, 963 319, 729 319, 865 1.84 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.65 1.62 24, 664 80, 323 319, 729 1.58 24, 823 21, 185 24, 460 24, 723 23, 865 23, 230 24, 226 24, 700 23, 026 20, 996 23, 813 22, 518 320, 566 322, 045 323, 602 324, 694 326, 508 325, 918 328, 206 328, 757 328, 613 323, 538 321, 478 319, 865 1.59 1.60 1.61 1. 60 1.61 1.57 1.60 1.61 1.64 1.70 1.73 1.72 22, 228 79, 200 320, 307 1.75 11, Oil 12, 799 15, 276 19, 450 22, 510 22, 548 23, 468 43, 130 48, 145 53, 951 59, 254 68, 223 75, 795 81, 437 81, 216 81, 541 80, 632 81, 404 81, 176 82, 610 82, 915 82, 713 82, 166 81, 201 79,967 79, 705 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer roods rose 1.1 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods were up 0.2 percent. Prices of capital equipment increased 0.4 percent from their December level. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 160 160 140 140 120 1974 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] J?inishec goods Int,ermedijate Crud<3 mater ials nlaterial3 lotal finFoodished Cons timer g oods stuffs CapiFoods consumer Total and Other Total and Other tal NonFlii" feedfeeds i dur- equip- goods Total stuffs able ment 138.6 125.9 146.8 141. 0 149.3 162. 9 200.2 159. 5 196. 1 189.4 208.9 153. 1 138.2 163. 0 162. 5 163.6 180. 0 195. 3 178.6 196.9 191. 8 206.9 162.6 144.5 174.8 173.4 169. 7 189. 1 185.3 189.4 202. 7 190.2 228. 5 174. 3 152. 8 189.3 184.6 180.7 201.5 190.5 202. 3 209.2 192. 1 245.0 186.7 166.9 200.0 199.2 194.9 215.6 203. 1 216.5 234.4 216. 2 272.3 211.5 183.2 231. 3 216. 5 217.9 242.2 226. 1 244.4 274. 3 247.9 330.0 250. 8 206. 2 283.9 239.8 248.9 280.3 252.6 282. 3 304.6 259.2 401.0 276.4 218.6 319.5 264.3 271. 2 306. 0 250. 6 310. 1 329. 0 257.4 482.5 265. 5 213.2 304. 5 253.8 262.7 297. 1 269. 9 299. 1 329. 1 272. 8 449. 0 268. 3 214.2 308.7 256.0 264. 6 298.4 261. 1 301. 1 332. 1 265.0 475.4 272. 1 214.4 315. 1 257.9 267. 8 301.5 255. 3 304.9 328.4 260. 9 472.8 275. 5 216.2 319. 8 260. 2 270.4 304. 1 257.3 307.6 333.2 264.2 480. 6 275.6 217.7 318.8 262. 0 270.6 305. 7 255. 6 309.5 333.7 260. 9 489.6 277. 1 218.9 320. 4 264. 1 272.0 306.9 255. 1 310.8 336. 9 265.0 490.8 277.4 218.5 321.2 265. 6 272.9 308. 1 251. 0 312. 3 337.6 264.9 493.2 277.9 219.6 321. 5 267.4 273.3 309.7 251.4 314. 1 334. 4 261. 9 489. 7 279.3 219. 5 323.9 267.8 273.9 309.8 242. 5 314. 8 328. 4 252. 0 492. 2 281.0 222.3 324.8 270. 4 274. 9 309. 7 239. 6 314. 9 323. 1 246. 1 488.2 283.4 224. 1 327.6 272.5 276. 1 310.6 235.3 316.2 318.2 240.8 484.5 284.2 224.3 328.9 274. 1 276.6 311. 3 234. 3 317.0 313.8 234. 1 485. 1 284.8 224.0 330. 1 275.2 277.9 312.4 239.5 317.8 319.2 244. 4 479.9 F inished goods excludiniy cons urner fo ods Total finConished sumer goods foods Total Period 1974 1975 1976 1977__. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Jan Feb Mar__ Apr May June July Aug___ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan 147. 5 163.4 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 260. 8 262.8 265. 7 _ 268.2 268.8 _ 270.3 271.3 272. 1 272.6 273.9 275.3 276. 1 277.3 166.9 181.0 180.4 189. 9 207.2 226. 2 239. 5 253.6 250.7 250. 4 252.3 252. 7 253.3 254. 5 256. 6 256.8 255. 5 254.8 253. 2 253. 1 255.9 139.3 156. 2 166. 1 177.7 190. 7 213.3 247.8 273.3 262.5 265. 1 268.4 271. 5 272.0 273.7 274.3 275.2 276. 4 278.3 280. 6 281.6 282.4 > Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 rr* i t NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1977. Data for Septembe 1981 revised to reflect late reports, etc. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.4 percent unadjusted), rood and beverage prices were up 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices were up 0.4 percent, unadjusted. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 UNADJUSTED 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 ALL ITEMS 180 160 160 140 140 1974 i i i i i I i i i i 1975 i i i i I i i i i i 1976 1977 1979 1978 i i IM i 1981 1980 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Tratnsportat ion Housing Period Food and Home items * beveiv Total i purchase ages All NSA Rel. imp,5,. 100.0 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Jan.. Felx. Mar^» Apr__ MayJune.. July__ Aug__ Sept.. Oct___ Nov.. Dec__ 1982: Jan___ 147.7 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 260.5 263.2 265. 1 266.8 269. 0 271.3 274.4 276.5 279.3 279.9 280.7 281.5 282.5 NSA 17.6 46.0 9.6 158.7 172. 1 177.4 188.0 206.3 228.5 248.0 267. 3 262.0 263.7 264. 5 265.0 265.4 266.0 267.7 269. 1 270.9 271.5 271. 9 272. 1 274. 1 148.8 164.5 174.6 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 279.8 281.4 282.8 284.9 288.4 291.6 296.3 299.3 303.2 303.3 304. 8 305.9 306.7 142.7 160.3 168.4 179.5 196.7 223. 1 254.3 267.7 266.2 263.0 261. 1 260.7 263.0 266.6 271.4 272. 6 274.5 272.5 270.2 270,5 269.3 Financ- Apparel F + ? ing, and taxes, upkeep and. Total1 insurance NSA 12.9 4.6 19.3 181. 1 201.9 212.8 227.2 257.8 308.9 396.0 472.5 435.2 437.1 441. 1 447. 1 458.3 467. 2 480.0 488.3 501.8 501. 8 505.6 506.3 506.0 136.2 142.3 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 183.0 184.0 184.9 185. 7 185.8 186. 1 187. 1 188.4 189.0 189.5 189. 3 189.4 189.3 » Includes iteiris not show n separatel"1yIncludes direct pricing o f diesel anc gasohol be ginning Se]atember 19*Ji. » Fuel oil, coa] , and bott ed gas; gas (piped) aiid electricilty; and motor fuel, motor oil, eoolarit, etc. 4 Estimated se ries. Finan ce includes financing, taxes, and i osurance. 5 Relative imp ortance, D ecember 19S 2 137.7 150.6 165.5 177.2 185.5 212. 0 249.7 280.0 266.5 272.6 275.3 274. 5 275.8 276.9 279.7 281.4 284.6 288.2 290.8 292.5 291.9 Medical En- 3 ergy care New cars Motor fuel 2 S.5 6.0 4.9 117.5 127.6 135.7 142. 9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 183.9 183.9 183. 1 186. 1 189.9 192.0 192. 8 192.8 193.7 194. 0 194.6 196. 1 196.0 159.9 170.8 177.9 188. 2 196.3 265. 6 369. 1 410.9 391. 9 415.2 424. 7 413.4 410.4 406.5 404. 3 404.7 408. 3 414.6 418. 1 420. 3 413. 1 150. 5 168.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 279. 1 281.5 284. 0 286.6 289.2 292.0 295.9 299.4 302.0 305.0 308.3 310.5 312.9 All items less food, energy, Serv- and home ices purchase and finance * NSA 11.1 49.8 275.9 361. 1 410.0 381.7 401. 1 409.3 409. 8 411.3 414.0 415.7 416. 1 417. 1 414.9 414. 1 414. 6 416.4 138.5 150.5 160. 8 170.6 180.9 194. 1 211.6 231.6 222.0 223.7 225. 1 226.8 228.4 230.3 232.6 234.4 236.5 238.3 239.8 241.4 242.5 43.2 159.7 152. 1 176.6 166.6 189.3 180.4 207.3 194.3 220.4 210.9 234.2 270.3 305.7 288.5 290. 7 293. 0 296.0 299.9 303.3 308.6 312. 2 316.9 318.4 321.4 322.9 324.4 NOTE.—-NSA indie ates data ar e not season ally adjuste d. Seasona ly adjustec . data revis 3d beginning!967. Data be ginning 19'F8 are for aU urban co nsumers; earlier data iire tor urban wage earn BFS and clerical workers . Source: Departmen t of Labor, Bureau of I,abor Statist ics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period Percent change ! "rom pre<ceding 1 period ; seasonally ad jus ted Percent change Tom 3 irtenths earliei•; season ally adju sted annual rates Percenti change from 6 nlonths earlie r; season ally adju sted annual rates Consume r goods Consume r goods Consumejr goods Total finished goods 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Foods 11.8 18.3 — 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 - 12.8 11.8 7.0 ._ _ Capital Total finequipExclud- ment ished goods ing foods 20.5 5. 3 22.6 7.4 7.5 1.5 17.5 14.2 11.4 .6 1.2 .9 .7 .9 .7 .8 .6 .7 22.5 13.0 5.5 —2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 8.4 1.2 .8 1.1 .9 .2 .6 .4 .3 .2 .5 .5 .3 .2 .2 .5 .8 .1 -.5 -. 0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.2 .0 .5 .1 .2 .5 .6 .9 .3 .4 1.1 .2 .8^ o -.6 Capital Total equipfinExclud- ment ished Foods ing goods foods Foods Capitol equipExclud- ment ing foods 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 9.2 9.2 9.7 1. 5 5. 1 12.8 11.8 3.2 4.7 3.5 6.3 5.6 1.6 9.4 9.7 9.9 8.8 10.7 10.5 10. 0 -3.7 7.6 2.8 3.4 3.2 5.3 8.2 7.2 8.6 8.5 5.7 7.4 7.8 9.7 1.7 5.5 7.3 4.5 1.0 .8 .6 4.7 5.0 3.4 3.9 4.8 5.2 -2.8 .4 5.1 i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for September 1981 and revised seasonal factors. 9.3 10.7 11.6 10.5 9.6 9.9 8.2 7.2 5.3 4.3 4.9 4.3 7. 1 .1 12.0 12.5 16.5 15.9 11.3 3.1 5.5 8.6 2.9 4.4 3.2 3. 1 4.3 4.8 5.2 2.6 1.7 j -1.1 .o 9.8 10.4 13.0 13.9 11.9 11.9 9.2 7.3 5.4 4.0 5.7 11.0 10.7 11.7 9.9 10.2 10.8 9.5 9, 1 5. 2 7.8 8.0 8.2 7.7 5.4 7.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted l] Eousing • Period Tra nsporta tion All FiApFood nanc- parel MedAll 2 and Home ing, ical Motor 3 items bever- Total 2 pur- taxes, and Total * New cars fuel care ages chase and keep insur- 12.2 1974 7.0 1975 48 1976 6.8 1977 9.0 1978 13.3 1979 12.4 1980 8.9 1981 .8 1981: Jan.. Feb__ 1.0 Mar. .6 .4 Apr., May. .8 .7 June. July. 1. 1 .8 Aug. Sept. 1. 1 .4 Oct.. Nov. .5 .4 Dec.. 1982: Jan__ .3 12.0 6.2 .8 7.6 11.6 10.0 10. 1 4.3 .4 .6 .3 .2 .2 .2 .6 .5 .7 .2 .1 .1 .7 13.4 7.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 NSA NSA 10. 1 10.0 14.6 4.3 8.4 11.2 15.8 11.4 1.2 .8 -.4 .6 -1. 2 .5 -.7 .7 -.2 .9 1.2 1.4 1. 1 1.8 1.6 .4 1.0 .7 1.3 >j .0 . 5 -.8 .1 .4 .3 -.4 7.6 1.6 11.2 14.7 27.5 23.3 17.9 1.4 .4 .9 1.4 2.5 1.9 2. 7 1.7 2.8 0 .8 .1 -. 1 NSA 8.7 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 .2 .5 .5 .4 .1 .2 .5 .7 .3 .3 -.1 .1 -. 1 13.3 9.8 as 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 1. 1 2.3 1. 0 -.3 .5 .4 1.0 .6 1. 1 1.3 .9 .6 -.2 i Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted. * Includes items not shown separately. s Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. * Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 8 Estimated series. Finance includes finaneing.taxes, and insurance. 24 Energy 4 11.5 20.6 7.3 11.0 4.8 2.6 7.2 4.9 6.2 8.5 7.4 52.2 7.5 18.9 6.8 9.4 .2 2.2 0 5.9 -.4 2.3 1.6 -2.7 2.0 -.7 1. 1 -1.0 .4 0 .5 .2 .3 .8 -.5 .1 .9 1.5 .8 .5 -. 1 -1.7 12.4 9.9 10. 1 8.8 8.8 10. 1 10.0 12.5 1. 1 .9 .9 .9 .9 1.0 1.3 1.2 .9 1.0 1. 1 .7 .8 items less food, Serv- energy, ices and home purchase and finance 5 21.6 11.6 11.3 37.4 18. 1 11.9 13.7 14.2 13. 0 1. 1 6.9 7.2 8.0 3.1 5. 1 2.0 .1 .4 .7 .4 .1 .2 — .o -.2 .1 .4 8.1 7.3 7.9 9.3 .8 .8 1.0 1.3 1. 1 1.7 1.2 1.5 .5 .9 .5 .5 Adden dum: All it ems percent change (annua . rate) From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier 11. 1 6.3 6.8 5.5 6.9 7.5 9.9 9.4 .6 .8 .6 .8 .7 .8 1.0 .8 .9 .8 .6 .7 .5 12.0 11.4 9.6 8.0 7.3 8. 1 1.1.3 11.3 12.8 9.7 8.4 5.4 4.8 11.8 12.4 11.4 10.0 9.3 8.8 9.6 9.3 10.4 10.5 9.8 9.1 7.2 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1967. Data beginning 1978 are for ail urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 0.8 percent in February and prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month ended February 15. INDEX, 1977=100 INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE)' 80 1982 1974 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100] Prices received by iiirmers Period 1974., 1975....... ill..... 1976. ........I.:..... 1977_.__.__...._..L.._ 1978.,— __.__ ..__._ 1979... 1980.. —.._..._.. 1981 ___ 1981: Feb Mar........ Apr May. .. June . . July .... Aug Sept _.„ Oct Nov . Dec 1982: Jan .„ Feb 1 2 All farm products 105 101 102 100 115 132 134 138 144 143 143 142 142 142 137 133 130 130 128 132 133 Crops Livestock and products 117 105 102 100 105 116 125 134 144 145 143 142 138 138 129 120 119 121 122 126 124 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and ^ age rates. NOIE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by 94 98 101 100 124 147 144 142 144 141 143 141 146 146 145 146 140 138 133 137 142 Prie es paid by fanners All commodi- Production items, ties, services, interest, Production interest, taxes, items taxes, and and wage wage rates * rates 81 89 95 100 108 123 138 150 148 149 150 150 150 150 151 151 150 150 150 154 154 81 89 95 100 109 125 139 150 149 150 151 151 151 150 150 150 149 149 148 153 153 83 91 97 100 108 125 138 148 146 147 149 149 150 148 148 148 147 147 145 148 148 Batio 2 130 113 107 100 106 107 97 92 97 96 95 95 95 95 91 88 87 87 85 86 86 law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977= '100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Series revised. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS Growth in the monetary aggregates increased in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIOSCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 2,200 2,400 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 AA2 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1974: Dec 1975: Dec 1976: Dec 1977: Dec 1978: Dec 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan » 1 Ml M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD)1 Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets 277.4 291.0 310.4 335. 5 363.2 389.0 414.5 440.9 417.9 419.4 424.4 433. 3 429. 2 428.4 429.4 431. 1 431.2 432.9 436.4 440.9 448.6 911.2 1, 026. 9 1, 171. 2 1, 297. 7 1, 403. 9 1, 518. 9 1, 656. 1 1, 822. 4 1, 665. 6 1, 678. 1 1, 701. 0 1, 723. 1 1, 732. 3 1, 740. 7 1, 753. 6 1, 772. 2 1, 778. 1 1, 789. 3 1, 809. 7 1, 822. 4 1, 840. 2 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 1, 064. 3 1, 166. 2 1, 305. 0 1, 464. 6 1, 629. 0 1, 779. 3 1, 963. 1 2, 187. 8 1, 984. 1 2, 001. 8 2, 023. 9 2, 046. 2 2, 065. 1 2, 082. 0 2, 102. 4 2, 125. 8 2, 138. 0 2, 151. 0 2, 174. 5 2, 187. 8 2, 203. 7 1, 249. 8 1, 376. 6 1, 531. 4 1,724.3 1, 938. 9 2, 153. 9 2, 370. 4 2, 397. 3 2, 418. 2 2, 437. 9 2, 455. 5 2, 483. 1 2, 506. 6 2, 530. 4 2, 559. 7 2, 577. 2 2, 599. 4 2, 625. 3 Percent change fr om year or 6 rnonths ea rlier 2 Ml 4.4 4. 9 6.7 8. 1 8.3 7. 1 6.6 6.4 10.3 7.2 6.8 8.8 5.7 6.8 5.6 5.7 3.2 -.2 3.4 5.9 9. 1 M2 5.6 12.7 14. 1 10.8 8.2 8.2 9.0 M3 8.4 9.6 11. 9 12.2 11.2 9.2 9.6 10. 3 11.4 11.7 10.8 11.8 12. 1 11.9 12.5 12.3 12. 8 11.6 10.5 10.9 10.4 10. 1 9.9 10.0 8.6 7.5 9.0 10. 1 9. 4 10.5 10. 8 11.5 9. 3 7.8 9. 1 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1959. Chart based on unrevised data received earlier. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Overnight repurchase agreeOther ments De- check- (RPs) Cur- mand able net Period rency de- deposits plus posits l (OCD) overnight Eurodollars Money market mutua Ifund bala nces Small Large dedeSavings nomi- nomiGeneral de- nation nation purpose Institime tution posits time and dede- 2 broker/ only posits posits 2 dealer Dec: 1974. 67.8 1975. 73.8 1976. 80.6 1977. 88. 6 1978. 97.4 1979. 106. 1 1980. 116.2 1981. 123. 1 1981: Jan_. 116.3 Feb._ 117.2 Mar. 117.8 Apr__ 119. 1 May. 119.4 June- 119.7 July . 120.5 Aug__ 120.7 Sept. 121. 1 Oct~ 121. 3 Nov_ 121.8 Dec_. 123. 1 1982: Jan_- 123.8 NSA NSA NSA Term Shortrepur- Term term chase Euro- Sav- TreasBank- Comagree- dollars ings ury ers' merments (net) bonds secuaccept- cial (RPs) rities ances paper NSA NSA 207.4 214. 1 224.4 239.6 253.9 262. 2 267.2 236.4 0.4 .9 2.7 4. 2 8.4 16.9 26.9 77.0 7.2 7.5 13. 7 18.8 24. 1 26.3 35.0 38.1 2. 1 3.2 2.8 2.9 7.1 34.3 61.8 150.8 0.2 .4 .6 .9 3. 1 9.3 13. 9 33.7 337.6 387.7 451.7 490.4 479.9 421.7 398. 9 343.6 290. 0 340.9 396.5 454. 1 533. 9 652.6 751.7 854.7 144.4 129. 8 118.2 145. 2 194. 6 221.8 257.9 300.4 8.4 9.0 15.0 21.0 27.5 30.2 37.8 35.4 8. 0 9.7 13. 1 18.7 29.9 42. 9 48. 4 63.2 67.2 71.7 76.4 80. 3 79.6 72.3 53.6 77. 1 81. 1 89. 9 99.3 128.5 156.7 10.6 8.4 8.8 11.8 21.4 26.6 31. 8 50. 1 48. 0 51.7 62.9 79. 2 97. 0 98. 2 254. 1 244. 8 243.0 243. 5 240. 4 237.7 236.7 236.6 234. 7 235.7 235.7 236.4 43.2 53.3 59. 5 66.5 65. 2 66. 7 68. 1 69.5 71.2 71.6 74.7 77.0 35.8 35.3 36.5 36.8 41. 0 42.9 42. 3 43. 1 39.6 36. 1 36. 9 38. 1 65.8 75. 1 85. 3 95.8 98.6 102. 8 112.7 122. 1 130.4 137. 1 144.6 150.8 15.0 17.3 20.2 21. 3 19.5 20. 1 21. 6 23.3 26.6 29. 4 32.0 33.7 384.5 378.5 378.5 378. 8 373. 5 366.8 361.0 350.9 343. 1 339. 6 340. 9 343.6 768.1 775.7 782.0 784. 1 795.8 805. 5 814.0 830.8 839.7 849. 8 856.8 854.7 267. 5 271.7 269.8 267. 6 278.4 285. 6 293. 1 299. 9 302. 3 302.2 300. 6 300.4 39. 2 38. 1 36. 1 36.7 37.7 38.8 37. 2 33.4 33.8 33.4 35.6 35.4 50.2 52. 2 52. 1 52.6 57. 0 57.9 58.7 61. 0 61.2 62.8 62. 5 71.7 71.0 70.6 70.3 70.0 69.7 69.4 68.9 68. 4 67.9 67.7 161. 1 163. 6 161.9 157.6 158.2 160.3 161.8 164. 1 168. 1 176.0 179.5 32.4 32.6 33.3 34.6 35. 6 36.4 37. 2 37.4 37.6 37. 2 37.5 97. 7 97. 0 96. 1 94. 2 97.2 100. 3 100. 9 102. 5 103. 9 104.4 103.7 239.3 81.1 43.3 154.4 32.5 348.9 851.6 303.2 32.5 * Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures, and note regarding revisions. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installm ent credit e:stended Period Total * Automobile Revolving Installm ent credit li quidated Total i Automobile Revolving Net change in amount (DUtstanding Total * Automobile Revolving 172, 765 180, 083 210, 740 257, 600 297, 668 324, 777 305, 887 338, 779 46, 514 52, 420 63, 743 75, 641 87, 981 93, 901 83, 002 93, 698 33, 213 36, 956 43, 934 87, 596 105, 125 120, 174 129, 580 144, 778 163, 276 172, 675 189, 179 222, 138 254, 589 286, 396 304, 477 319, 158 46, 019 49, 444 53, 278 60, 437 69, 245 79, 186 83, 037 84, 269 31, 243 35, 616 41, 764 81, 348 96, 090 111,546 126, 655 139, 286 9,489 7,408 21, 561 35, 462 43, 079 38, 381 1,410 19, 621 495 2,976 10, 465 15, 204 18, 736 14, 715 -35 9,429 1,970 1,340 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 2,925 5,492 1980: Dec 27, 149 7,234 11, 614 25, 530 6,932 10, 998 1,619 302 616 1981: Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 27, 059 28, 706 29, 822 28, 878 28, 149 29, 005 28, 750 28, 899 29, 428 26, 952 27, 499 26, 871 7,237 8,333 8,700 7,205 7,320 7,442 8,178 8,573 9,176 7, 139 7,748 7, 156 11, 483 11, 867 12, 071 12, 352 11, 904 12, 668 12, 190 11,964 12, 335 12, 208 11,861 12, 099 26, 190 26, 710 26, 714 26, 547 26, 803 27, 075 26, 796 26, 040 26, 609 25, 938 27, 157 27, 044 7,300 7,354 7,018 6,777 7,515 7,385 6,970 6,458 6,894 6, 177 7,474 7,247 10, 926 11, 426 11, 484 11, 514 11, 554 11,650 11, 713 11,473 12, 042 11,818 11, 808 11,971 869 1,996 3, 108 2,331 1,346 1,930 1,954 2,859 2,819 1,014 342 -173 -63 979 1,682 428 -195 57 1, 208 2, 115 2,282 962 274 -91 557 441 587 838 350 1,018 477 491 293 390 53 128 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 _ ._ i Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND AND Commercial bank loans and investments rose in January. Total adjusted reserves and required reserves of all depository institutions rose, and nonborrowed reserves fell slishtly. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 40 1974 1975 J976 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total loans and investments Period 1975: Dee__ 1976: Dec_ 1977: Dec 1978: Dec_ 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1981: Dec ___ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Deposit ory instittitions 3 Allc;ommercial 1 mnks l ngs (milReserves aadjusted for changes Borrowi lions of dollars, Loans .and leases Investsaents in rese rve requirenlents unadj usted) CommerCJ U .0. Other Seacial and NonReTotal Total 2 industrial Treasury secuTotal sonal borrowed quired securities rities loans 745.2 804. 6 891.5 1, 013. 5 1, 135. 9 1, 239. 6 1, 317. 7 517.4 555. 0 632.5 747.0 849. 9 915. 1 975.0 189. 6 190.9 210.9 245. 9 291.2 326. 8 358.6 82.2 100.8 99.8 93. 8 94.5 110. 0 110.9 145.6 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214. 4 231.7 31.28 31.82 33.27 35. 21 36.58 39. 19 40.53 31. 15 31.77 32.70 34.34 35. 11 37.50 39.89 31.02 31.55 33.08 34.98 36.25 38.72 40. 21 1981: Jan 1, 251. 4 Feb.. _ 1, 255. 7 Mar 1, 261. 0 Apr 1, 267. 9 May 1, 285. 1 June 1, 295. 4 July _ 1, 302. 8 Aug__ _ . 1, 312. 2 Sept 1, 317. 8 Oct 1, 324. 0 Nov 1, 327. 5 Dec 1, 317. 7 921.6 924.4 928. 8 934. 5 948.5 957. 1 964.0 972. 7 979.0 982.8 986. 0 975.0 330. 0 330.0 331.4 332. 8 339.4 345. 1 350.9 356.6 360. 6 363.7 363.4 358. 6 113.2 113.4 112. 9 113.9 116.0 116.7 116.4 115.6 113. 2 112.5 110.3 110.9 216.6 217.9 219.4 219. 5 220.6 221.6 222. 3 223.8 225.6 228.7 231.2 231. 7 39.08 39. 12 39.24 39.41 39. 63 39. 62 39.73 39.81 40.31 40. 12 40. 15 40.53 37. 68 37.82 38. 24 38.07 37.40 37. 58 38.05 38.39 38. 86 38.94 39.49 39.89 38.70 38.77 38.96 39. 24 39.37 39.28 39.39 39.52 39.90 39.84 39.81 40.21 1,405 1,278 1,004 1,343 2, 154 2,038 1,751 1,408 1,473 1,149 695 642 120 148 197 161 259 291 248 220 222 152 79 53 1982: Jan » 975.9 360.9 114.3 232.1 41.28 39.76 40.86 1,526 75 1, 322. 2 » Data are averages of Wednesday figures. 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. 3 Data are averages of daily figures. NOTE.—Loans and investments revised. Also, shifts in Dec. 1981 and Jan. 1982 of foreign loans and securities from U.S. banking offices to international banking 28 127 62 558 874 1,473 1,617 642 13 12 54 134 82 116 53 facilities reduced loans and securities by a total of $25.9 billion and $30.2 billion, respectively. Adjusted reserves revised beginning 1981; revisions for earlier periods not yet available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Credit market f unds Period Total Internal 1 Total Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 9, 1980: I II III IV 1981: I II_ III IV ». 165.8 208.7 202.9 167.9 223.4 264.2 320. 4 366. 7 336. 2 381. 2 359. 6 265.4 325.4 394.3 336.5 416.0 393.4 379.0 85.0 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 156. 1 171.9 190.6 196.8 228. 5 194.9 192.9 199.2 200.3 222. 0 228.2 236.4 227.3 80.8 117.0 117.3 48.3 89.2 108. 1 148.5 176. 1 139.3 152.7 164.7 72.5 126. 3 194.0 114.5 187.8 157. 0 151.7 Securities and mortgages 40.7 36.9 39.1 49.7 48.0 48.1 45.8 39.5 66.5 42.0 65.9 62.3 63.5 74. 1 60.4 55.0 3. 1 49.5 57.6 72.9 82.8 41.7 64.3 84.6 93.2 104.8 106. 1 113.5 126.7 70. 1 93.3 134.3 76.2 149. 2 116.4 112. 0 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. * Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Loans and shortterm paper Other2 16.9 36.0 43.6 8.0 16. 3 36.5 47.4 65.3 39.7 71.5 60.8 7.8 29.8 60.2 15.8 94.2 113.3 62.5 23.2 440 34.5 6.5 24.9 23.5 55.3 71.4 33.2 39.3 37.9 2.4 33.0 59.6 38.3 38.6 40.5 39.7 Total 149. 1 191.9 190. 1 150.9 201.4 228.5 290.9 340.6 291.7 334.5 310.6 224.8 289. 1 342.4 302.7 350.9 340. 7 343.8 r\ •i i Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets 99.0 121.5 137.9 109. 7 148.3 174. 1 199.2 220.9 216.9 259.9 224. 1 212.0 207. 1 224.3 231.6 265.4 281.8 260.8 50. 1 70.5 52.2 41.2 53.0 54.4 91.7 119.7 74.9 74.6 86.5 12.8 82.0 118.2 71. 1 85.5 58.9 83.0 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 16.7 16.7 12.9 17.0 22.0 35.7 29.5 26.2 44.5 46.7 49.0 40.7 36.3 51.9 33.7 65. 1 52.7 35.2 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. NOTE.—Series revised. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Curreiit assets End of period Total SEC series:2 1970... 1971 1972 1973. ._ 1974... FTC-FRB series:3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 __ 1980: I II __ III IV _. 1981: I II III Cash Cur]rent liabil [ties U.S. Notes governand Invenment actories securi- counts ties receivable Total Net working capital Current ratio l 492.3 529.6 599. 3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59. 0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10. 6 12.8 12.3 206. 1 221. 1 248.2 288. 5 322. 1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326. 0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282. 9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105. 5 92.7 110.7 128. 1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 735.4 759.0 826.8 902. 1 1, 030. 0 1, 200. 9 1, 281. 6 1, 234. 0 1, 232. 2 1, 254 9 1, 281. 6 1, 321. 2 1, 317. 4 1, 349. 2 73.2 82. 1 88.2 95.8 104.5 116. 1 121.0 110.5 111.5 113.4 121.0 120.5 118.5 118.3 11. 1 19.0 23.4 17.6 16.3 15.6 17. 3 15.2 14.0 16.4 17.3 17.0 17.7 16.0 265.8 272. 1 292.8 324.7 383.8 456.8 491. 2 470.3 463.4 478.7 491.2 507.3 507.4 519.7 319. 5 315.9 342.4 374.8 426.9 501.7 525.4 518.9 525.0 524.5 525.4 542.8 540.0 557.2 65.9 69.9 80. 1 89.2 98.5 110.8 126.7 119.2 118.3 121.9 126.7 133.6 133.7 138. 1 453.4 451. 6 494.7 549.4 665.5 809. 1 877.2 836.5 826. 0 850.5 877.2 910.9 908. 1 951. 1 269.8 264.2 281.9 313.2 373.7 456.3 498.3 467.7 463.0 477.2 498.3 504.0 500.8 529. 1 183.6 187.4 212.8 236. 2 291.7 352.8 378.9 368.8 363. 1 373.4 37R9 406.9 407.2 422.0 282.0 307.4 332.2 352.7 364.6 391.8 404.4 397.5 406.2 4043 404 4 410. 3 409.3 398. 1 1.622 1. 681 1.672 1.642 1.548 1.484 1.461 1.475 1.492 1. 475 1.461 1. 450 1.451 1.419 * Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. *8 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. Other current assets Notes Other and current acliabilicounts ties payable NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose through mid-February and then declined. PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 -DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) ^ T i i i i iIIiiI 4JJUJJ. 1974 1975 I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I II 1982 1978 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treeisury securil y yields Period 1976 1977. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug _ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Week ended: 1982: Jan 16 23 30 Feb 6 13____ 20____ 27... _ Mar 6 1 3 3-month bills J Constant nmturities 3-year 2 10-year 3igh-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount municipal mercial rate Aaa bonds (N.Y. paper, VinnHQ (Standard 6 F.R. & Poorjs) 3 (Moody's) months 4 Bank) * 4.989 5.265 7.221 10. 041 11. 506 14077 14. 724 14.905 13. 478 13. 635 16. 295 14.557 14.699 15. 612 14.951 13. 873 11. 269 10. 926 12. 412 13. 780 6.77 6.69 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 13.01 13.65 13.51 14.09 15.08 14.29 15. 15 16.00 16.22 15. 50 13.11 13.66 14.64 14.73 7.61 7.42 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 12.57 13.19 13. 12 13.68 14. 10 13.47 14.28 14.94 15. 32 15.15 13.39 13. 72 14.59 14.43 6.49 5.56 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 9.65 10.03 10.12 10.55 10.73 10.56 11.03 12. 13 12.86 12.67 11.71 12.77 13. 16 12.81 8. 43 8.02 8.73 9.63 11.94 14. 17 12.81 13.35 13.33 13.88 14.32 13.75 14.38 14.89 15.49 15.40 14.22 14.23 15. 18 15.27 12. 121 12. 505 13. 364 13. 850 14. 099 14. 740 12. 430 12. 450 14.73 14.92 14. 57 14.84 15.05 14.88 14.26 14.76 14.73 14.42 14. 63 14.84 14.39 13.92 13.34 13.02 13.01 12.99 12.95 12.80 12.49 15.29 15.36 15.26 15.34 15. 49 15.34 14.92 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the TYeasury Department. 8 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. « Prior to November 1,1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. * Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 4 4 4 5. 34 5. 61 7. 99 10.91 12.29 14.76 15. 10 14.87 13.59 14 17 16.66 15.22 16.09 16.62 15.93 1472 11.96 12. 14 13.35 1427 5.50 5.46 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 13-13 13-13 13-13 13-13 13-14 14-14 14-14 14-14 14-14 14-14 14-13 13-12 12-12 12-12 13. 18 13. 56 13.87 14 49 1460 1472 13.43 12-12 12 12 12-12 12-12 12-12 12-12 12-12 12- Prime rate charged by banks 5 6.84 6. 83 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 2i;f-20 20-19 19-17H 17H-18 18-20K 20l/2-20 20-20H 20K-20K 20H-19H 19H-18 18-16 15%-16« 1534-15% 15K-16K Newhome mortgage yields (FIILBB)« 9.00 9.02 9.56 10.78 12.66 1470 13. 26 13.54 14.02 14.15 14.10 1467 1472 15.27 15.29 15.65 16. 38 15.87 15. 13 155i-15Ji 15J4-15» 1534-15% 15J4-164 16Mr-16fc 16K-17 17-16K 16/2- * Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in February. INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 INDEX, DEC 3\1965=50 60 50 - 50 40 40 30 30 1974 PERCENT 20 I PERCENT 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 10 5 - J J__J 1974 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD 8, POOR'S CORPORATION 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common s tock 5 vields (perc ent) " Comrnon stock pi'ices * New York Stock Excb ange indexe s (Dee. 31, 1965=50) - Period Composite Industrial Transportation 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Feb Mar Apr. May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Week ended: 1982: Jan 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20 27 — L 1982 Utility Finance S tan d ard Dow& Poor's Jones composite Dividendindustrial3 index ratio average (1941-43= 10) * 54.46 53. 69 53.70 58.32 68. 10 74.02 73. 52 76.46 77.60 76.28 76.80 74.98 75.24 68.37 69.40 71.49 71.81 60.44 57.86 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 85. 74 89.39 90.57 88.78 88.63 86.64 86.72 78.07 78.93 80.86 81.70 39.57 41. 09 43. 50 47.34 60. 61 72.61 72. 76 77.09 80.63 76.78 76.71 74.42 73.27 63.67 65.65 67.68 68.27 36.97 40. 92 39. 22 38.20 37. 35 38.91 37. 59 37.82 38.34 38.27 39.23 38.90 40.22 38. 17 38.87 40.73 40.22 52.94 55. 25 56.65 61.42 64. 25 73.52 68.48 72.82 74.59 74.65 79.79 74.97 73.76 69.38 72.56 76.47 74.74 974. 92 894. 63 820. 23 844. 40 891. 41 932. 92 945. 50 987. 18 1, 004. 86 979. 52 996. 27 947. 94 926. 25 853. 38 853. 25 860. 44 878. 28 102. 01 98.20 96.02 103. 01 118.78 128. 05 128.40 133. 19 134. 43 131.73 132. 28 129. 13 129. 63 118. 27 119.80 122. 92 123. 79 3.77 4. 62 5.28 5.47 5. 26 5.20 5. 00 4.88 4.86 4.98 5.03 5.18 5. 16 5.69 5.65 5.54 5. 57 67.91 66. 16 76.85 74. 78 62.04 59.09 39.30 38.32 70.99 70.50 853. 41 833. 15 117. 28 114. 50 5.95 6.06 67.24 67. 12 67.58 67.74 66.09 65.70 65.04 76.00 75.88 76.46 76.72 74.67 74.28 73.34 61.48 60. 99 60.72 61.48 59. 11 58.34 57.27 39. 10 39. 03 39.31 38.88 38.31 38.05 37.97 70.49 70.35 70.53 71.54 70.50 69.87 69. 96 845. 40 848. 34 852. 45 849. 47 833. 83 828. 06 820. 24 115. 97 115. 92 117. 13 117. 19 114. 36 113. 70 112. 58 6.02 5.99 5.98 5.95 6.05 6. 10 6. 12 Earningsratio 8.90 10.79 12.03 13.46 12.66 10.72 11.44 6 13. 15 i Average of daily closing prices. K'OTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange »Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. (NYSE). 8 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stqcka. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Stand« Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing ard & Poor's Corporation. prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. * Not charted. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1982, there was a budget deficit of $38.9 billion, compared to a deficit of $40.0 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 RECEIPTS 400 400 300 300 200 200 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Receipts Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981— 1982 (estimates) L__ _ 1983 (estimates) J _ _ _ _ Cumulative total, first 4 months : Fiscal year 1981— _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Fiscal year 1982__ _ .-_ _ __ * Estimates from The Budget of the "United States Government, Fiscal Year 198S, February 1982. NOTE.—Historical receipts and outlays have been adjusted to reflect reclassifi- 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Federal debt ( end of period) Held by the public 207.3 230.8 263.2 279. 1 298. 1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463. 3 517.1 599.3 626.8 666. 1 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400. 5 448.4 491. 0 576.7 657.2 725.3 757. 6 -23.4 -148 -47 -45. 2 -66.4 -13.0 -44. 9 -48.8 -27. 7 -59.6 -57.9 -98. 6 -91.5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544 1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 9143 1, 003. 9 1, 134 2 1, 258. 4 323.8 343.0 346. 1 396.9 480. 3 498.3 551.8 610. 9 6446 715. 1 7944 913.4 1, 021. 4 178. 1 201.3 218. 1 240. 1 -40. 0 -38. 9 940.5 1, 043. 8 749.5 839.8 cation in the 1983 Budget of certain items from budget receipts to offsetting receipts. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1982, budget receipts were $23.2 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $22.0 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 300 100 600 600 OUTLAYS 500 500 400 400 NONDEFENSE \ 300 300 200 200 100 100 J_ v 1974 I 1975 I 1976 _L 1977 1978 1979 , 1981 1980 1982 1983 v FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts ()utlays Nationa I defense Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975... 1976 Transition quarter 1977.. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 (estimates)1 1983 (estimates)* Total 207.3 230.8 263.2 279. 1 298. 1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517. 1 599.3 626.8 _„ 666. 1 Cumulative total, first 4 months : Fiscal year 1981 Fiscal year 1982 178. 1 201.3 Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes 94.7 103.2 119. 0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244. 1 285.9 298. 6 304.5 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 96.7 102.7 Total Interna- Health and In- Other Depart- tional income ment of affairs security terest Defense, military 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61. 1 46.8 65.3 80.4 91.4 105.7 116. 1 125.0 34. 0 143.0 158.6 179. 8 208.4 252.2 281.4 296.3 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 725.3 757.6 76. 6 74.5 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.8 187.5 221. 1 75. 1 73.2 77.6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156. 1 182.8 215.9 6. 1 10.7 11. 1 11. 1 12.0 13.8 14.7 67.6 83.8 218. 1 240. 1 50.1 59.3 49.0 57.9 3.4 3.3 8.5 » Estimates from The Budget o *the United States Government fiscal Year 198S, February 1982. Total 4.7 4. 1 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 80.0 20.6 90.4 22.8 104.8 28.0 134.3 30.9 158.9 34.5 7.2 41.0 174.5 38.0 187.4 44.0 207. 1 52.6 248.3 645 291. 1 82.5 324.3 99. 1 339.8 112.5 94.3 102.4 25.3 34.4 48.8 53.9 51.6 66.5 76. 1 21.5 85.7 105. 9 107.5 117.3 112.7 103.4 72.2 45.0 40.7 NOTE.—See Note, p. 32. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1981 Federal receipts rose $17.3 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $25.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $55.7 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, expenditures rose $33.1 billion/ receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 600 500 400 300 — 300 50 50 SURPLUS DEFICIT -50 -50 -100 -100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Fiscal year: 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Indirect Personal Corporate business tax and Total nontax profits tax and tax nontax receipts accruals accruals 365.9 414.2 480.7 527.3 613.0 166.4 186.4 223. 1 249.7 290.7 375. 1 1977 1978 431. 5 494.4 1979 1980 540.8 1981 *___ 625.8 1980: I 528.4 II. „ 520.9 III.. 540. 8 IV... 573.2 617.4 1981:1 IL_._ 621.0 III.. 638. 3 IV *>_ 170. 1 194.9 231.4 257.8 296.2 246.9 252. 0 259.4 272.9 283.3 293.2 306.4 301.9 Subsidies Less: GrantsWage Purin-aid less chases Trans- to State Net current accruals national for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less income ments local and social inand paid Govern- dissurance services government en- burse- product terprises ments accounts ments (-), Contributions 58.8 67.2 75.8 70.6 69. 6 24.5 27. 2 29. 1 35.7 56. 6 116.2 133.4 152.7 171.3 196. 1 411.7 450. 5 494. 7 578.2 667.9 140.3 150.7 163. 4 190. 2 218.3 169.8 182.2 201.8 239.3 279.7 66.3 74.7 79. 1 86.7 90. 1 28.4 33. 5 40.6 51.2 66.9 61.6 71.2 74. 6 70.2 65.9 25.0 28. 1 29. 4 40.6 61. 2 31.9 38.7 42.9 49. 1 60.6 62.6 61.8 59.9 118.5 137.2 159.0 172. 2 202.5 169.2 169. 3 171.8 178.6 198.9 200.4 203.7 206.9 421.5 460.7 509. 2 602.0 688.3 564.7 587. 3 615.0 641.1 664.0 668.2 694.0 727. 1 143. 9 153.4 167.9 198. 9 230.3 190.0 198.7 194.9 212.0 221.6 219.5 226.4 253.6 172.8 185.6 209. 1 249.8 284.5 228.9 236.0 265.3 269.0 271.9 274.8 293.6 297.6 67.5 77.3 80.4 88.0 87. 1 85.5 87.2 87.7 91.8 90.2 89.6 85.4 83. 4 29. 1 35.2 42. 3 53.3 73.3 50.3 54. 4 53.5 55.2 67.7 70.4 75.6 79.4 Calendar year: 80.5 60.9 66.7 72.6 74.6 64.8 66.4 7.0 9.6 9.8 10.8 13.0 8.2 9.3 9.4 12.0 13.2 10. 1 11.0 13.7 13.1 12.6 13.9 13.3 13. 1 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureauof Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 Surplus or deficit Fe deral Gc>vernmerit expenclitures Federal Cjovernm ent receip ts .1 -45.8 -36.3 -14.0 — 50. 9 -54.9 .0 .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 —46. 4 -29.2 -14.8 -61.2 -62.5 -36.3 -66.5 -74.2 -67.9 -46.6 -47.2 -55.7 0.0 -.0 .0 .0 •£ INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] In iustrial produe tion (sesisonally -adjuste i) Period United States 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981" 1981 : Feb Mar.... Apr May June July.... Aug Sept Oet».__ Nov *_ _ Dec *.. _ 1982: Jan » 117.8 130.5 138.2 146. 1 152.5 147.0 151.0 151.8 152.1 151.9 152.7 152.9 153.9 153.6 151.6 149. 1 146.4 143.4 139. 1 Canada Japan 140.3 148.5 152.2 157.7 166.0 162.7 63.9 182. 0 189.7 201. 1 217.7 232.5 239.3 237.9 235.9 237.0 232.6 238.4 241.1 234. 1 240.3 246.7 246.4 244.4 165.9 168.9 168.5 171. 0 171.8 167.9 164.8 162.9 160.6 159. 8 GerFrance many Italy Con sumer p«ices (uimdjustec D United Jnited King- Statesl dom 139 149 152 155 163 160 137. 1 149. 1 152.0 154. 1 161.8 162.3 127.6 143.5 145. 1 147.9 157.6 166.5 114.3 117.4 122. 9 126. 9 131. 7 122. 9 159 157 156 159 160 157 157 160 160 160 166 161 161 161 158 161 160 161 161 161 170.6 169.1 168. 2 158.5 158.7 162.9 138.0 163.2 159.2 170.0 117.5 117.5 117.5 116.6 118.3 117.8 118. 0 118. 6 121.5 119.4 » Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Inter- 161. 2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 263.2 265.1 266.8 269.0 271.3 274. 4 276.5 279.3 279.9 280.7 281.5 282.5 Can- Japan France ada 160. 1 172. 1 185. 9 202.5 221. 0 243. 5 273.9 261.7 265.2 267.2 269.6 273.8 276. 2 278.2 280.2 283.0 285.4 286.7 288.7 205.8 224.9 243.0 252.3 261.3 282. 3 296.2 290.8 292.2 294.5 297.0 297. 3 296.4 294.7 299. 5 300.7 299.8 299.8 178.9 196. 1 214.5 233.9 259. 1 294.2 332.7 315.6 318.8 323. 1 326.0 329.2 334.9 339.0 342. 9 347. 1 350.3 352.4 Germany United Kingdom Italy 144.2 150.4 155.9 160. 2 166.8 175. 9 186.4 182.3 183.5 184.7 185.4 186.3 187. 1 187. 7 188.6 189.2 190. 1 190.7 192.3 186. 8 218. 1 255. 2 286. 2 328. 5 398.0 472.4 449. 1 455.4 461. 3 468. 7 473.9 477.7 481.0 487.7 497.5 506.0 511. 1 216. 5 252.4 292.4 316. 6 359.0 423. 6 473.9 449.5 456.2 469.4 472. 4 475.2 477.3 480.8 483.5 487.9 493.0 496. 1 499.0 national Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Research, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merc]landise e xports * Merc]landise i mports Domesti c exports3 Period Total domestic and foreign Total exports 2 Food, Crude Food, Crude bever- matebever- mate- Manu2 facrials ages, rials ages, tured Total and to- and and to- and goods bacco bacco fuels fuels Monthly average : 1974* _._ 8,182 8,053 1975* „._ 8,971 8,842 1976* 9,602 9,456 1977* 10, 103 9,912 1978* 11, 973 11,753 1979* 15, 155 14,869 1980 18, 386 18, 036 1,269 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1981_. _ _ _ _ _ _ 19, 473 1981: Jan.__ 18, 902 Feb.., 19, 788 Mar. _ _ 21, 278 Apr.._ 19, 786 May. _ 18, 899 June. _ 19, 750 July.,. 19, 289 Aug... 19, 031 Sept.. 19, 551 Oct___ 19, 163 Nov.. 19, 153 Dec... 18, 885 1982: Jan.__ 18, 737 2,767 2,752 2,934 2,815 2,943 2,958 3,304 3,219 2,891 2,530 2,667 2,526 2,573 2,342 2,549 2,430 2,470 2, 662 2,772 2, 795 2,920 2,863 2,675 2,872 2,515 2,934 2,279 3, 076 19, 075 18, 536 19, 465 20, 843 19, 377 18, 528 19, 340 18, 919 18, 720 19, 108 18, 733 18, 751 18, 377 18, 350 Ge neral im ports F\a.s. valtle 1,317 5,294 8,547 1,266 5,913 8,209 1,341 6,437 10, 290 1,548 6,679 12, 533 1,746 7,873 14, 563 2,352 9,716 17, 455 2,810 11,991 20, 406 12, 857 12, 065 12, 813 13, 558 13, 276 12, 619 13, 456 13, 060 12, 991 12, 947 12, 458 12, 590 12, 318 12, 463 21, 748 22, 616 21,916 21, 029 22, 249 21, 232 22, 005 20, 114 23, 242 21, 274 23, 077 22, 508 19, 746 22, 829 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. * Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. i Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Data revised for 1981. Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. 3 Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 2,672 4,602 2,716 4,257 3,457 5,398 1, 186 4,463 6,379 1,312 4,325 8,360 1,478 5,949 9, 352 1,546 7,831 10,427 Cu stoms va lue 1,529 7,739 11, 873 1,736 8,976 11, 278 1,589 9,099 10, 750 1,612 7,471 11, 379 1,471 8,878 11, 325 1,665 7, 146 11,816 1,472 8,249 11,645 1,390 6,576 11,622 1,479 7,779 13, 361 1,393 7,411 11, 971 1, 583 7,642 13, 127 1,413 7,468 12, 826 1,542 6, 174 11, 414 1,340 8,269 12, 584 9,206 8,823 11, 042 13, 368 15, 504 18, 519 21, 415 892 827 991 22, 779 23, 679 22, 917 21, 983 23, 266 22, 248 23, 033 21, 074 24,398 22, 317 24, 194 23, 568 20, 699 23, 870 Mer ehandise balance ExExports (f.a.s.) ports less (f.a.s.) imless ports im(cusports toms (f.a.s.) value) trade Exports (f.a.s.) less i mports (c.Lf.) -365 -1,024 762 148 -688 -1,440 -2, 430 -3, 265 -2, 590 -3, 530 -2, 300 -3, 364 -2,020 -3,030 -2,275 -3, 714 -2, 127 249 -2, 463 -2, 333 -2, 255 -825 -4, 212 -1,724 -3, 914 -3, 356 -861 -4, 092 -3,306 -4, 777 -3, 129 -705 -3,480 -3, 349 -3,283 -1,784 -5,367 -2, 766 -5, 031 -4,415 — 1,814 -5, 134 Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports and trade balance. * Data for 1974-79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1981, the merchandise trade deficit increased to $9.3 billion from $7.0 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 -10 -15 1981 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] M«^rehandise Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 ":____ 1979: III.. IV_. 1980: I... II.. III.. IV1981:I____ II__. III*. IV*_. Exports Imports Inve stment in come 3 12 KTof iNcl/ Kol. Ud,i- an.ce Receipts Payments 71,410 -70,499 911 21, 808 -9, 655 98, 306 -103,649 5,343 27, 587 -12,084 107, 088 -98,041 9,047 25, 351 -12,564 114, 745 -124,051 -9,306 29, 286 -13,311 120, 816 -151,689 -30,873 32, 179 — 14,217 142, 054 -175,813 -33,759 43, 265 -21,865 184, 473 -211,819 -27,346 66, 699 -33,236 223, 966 -249,308 -25, 342 75, 936 -43, 174 236, 132 263, 975 -27,843 47, 236 -54,210 -6,974 18, 055 -8,734 51, 367 -59,726 -8, 359 18, 952 -9,203 54, 898 -65,024 - 10, 126 20, 465 -10,629 55, 667 -62,411 -6,744 16, 860 -10,342 56, 252 -59, 154 -2,902 18, 850 -10,697 57, 149 -62,719 -5,570 19, 764 -11,507 60, 990 -65, 651 -4, 661 21, 566 — 12,513 60, 368 -67,263 -6,895 22, 399 -13,666 57, 928 -64,955 -7,027 23, 610 -14, 120 56, 846 -66, 106 -9, 260 * Excludes military grants. *3 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Nat XN Cw Net military transactions Nettravel and transportation receipts 12, 153 15, 503 12, 787 15, 975 17, 962 21, 400 33, 463 32, 762 -2,070 -1,653 -746 559 1,528 738 -1,947 -2, 515 -3, 158 -3, 184 -2, 792 -2, 558 -3, 293 -3, 178 -2,622 -798 9,321 9,749 9,836 6,518 8, 153 8,257 9,053 8,733 9,490 -565 -923 -918 -427 -455 -715 -568 -698 -72 -722 -545 -532 -152 -38 -76 -668 -245 -66 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and serv-1 ices Remittances, pensions, and otner uni— 1 of at*ell ol IclLCl transfers 1 Balance on current account 3,184 11, 021 -3,881 7,140 2, 124 3,986 9,309 -7, 186 4,598 22, 893 -4, 613 18, 280 9,382 -4, 998 4,384 4,711 5, 182 -9, 493 -4, 617 -14, 110 5,792 -9, 008 -5,067 -14,075 1,414 7,008 -5,593 5,460 3,723 6,674 10, 779 -7,056 1,393 1,390 1,523 1,592 1,719 1,838 1,650 1,780 1,684 2,453 1,312 -217 787 6,478 3,734 4,790 2,660 3,994 1,052 -1,401 -189 -1,501 -1,878 -2,095 -1,332 -545 -1,503 4,975 -2,344 1,390 3,263 -1,527 1, 142 -1,518 -1,894 2,100 Note.—Merchandise trade data revised for 1981; other data to be revised later • Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. official reserve assets abroad were unchanged in the third quarter following an increase of $0.9 billion in the second quarter. Foreign official assets in the U.S. decreased $5.8 billion, following a $2.8 billion decrease in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 -10 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+)» debits (—)1 Foreigii assets in the U.S., net increase/cjipital inflow (4")] 2 1L7.S. assets abroad, ne t [inc rease/capitid outflow ( Period Total -22, 874 -34, 745 -39, 703 -51,269 -34,785 -61, 070 -62,639 -84, 776 -24, 942 -14,003 -12,639 -24,837 -19,302 -27, 995 -22,397 -21, 971 Ill 9. -18,004 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 — 1979: III— IV... 1980: I II... Ill IV... 1981: I II... U.S. official reserve assets * 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets 158 -1,467 -849 -2, 558 -375 732 -1,133 -8, 155 2,779 -649 -3,268 502 -1, 109 -4, 279 -4, 529 -905 -4 -2,644 366 -3,474 -4, 214 -3, 693 -4, 644 -3,767 -5, 165 -778 -925 -1,456 -1,187 -1,427 -1,094 -1,395 1,485 -1,242 -20,388 -33,643 -35, 380 -44, 498 -30, 717 -57, 159 -57, 739 -71,456 -26, 943 -12,429 -7,915 -24, 152 -16,766 -22, 622 -16,473 19, 581 -16,758 Total 6,026 18, 388 34, 241 10, 546 15, 670 7,027 36, 518 17, 693 51, 218 36, 816 63, 748 33, 561 38, 946 -13,757 15, 492 50, 261 24, 345 6,011 5,335 -1,295 7,509 -7,462 7,232 7,557 11, 651 7,686 23, 870 7,711 7,140 5,503 12, 888 -2, 779 15, 056 -5,847 i Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and thes U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Other foreign assets 12, 362 23, 696 8,643 18, 826 14, 403 30, 187 52, 703 34, 769 18, 334 6,630 14, 971 -326 3,965 16, 158 1,637 15, 667 20, 903 Statis tical discrei>ancy U.S. , official Allocareserve tions assets, of Of Total net* special which: (sum of (unaddrawing the Seasonal rights adjust- justed, items end of (SDRs) with sign ment reversed) discrepancy 1,139 1,152 1,152 1,093 -2, 654 -1,620 5,753 10, 367 -2, 323 11, 398 21, 140 29, 640 -455 -3, 122 2,000 8,857 -206 6,073 1,355 18, 151 2,676 -3,291 2,139 2,736 -340 10, 901 1,222 7,941 848 -2, 592 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 18, 650 18, 956 26, 756 18, 557 18, 956 21, 491 21, 943 22, 994 26, 756 30, 410 29, 582 29, 716 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product. Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment , Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business Page , , 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 . ,......., , EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—-Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 .' PRICES Producer Prices. , Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices. Changes in Consumer Rrices , Prices Received and Paid by Farmers , 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets , Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit..,... Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt... Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions , For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, P.C. 20402 Price $2.75 (single copy) ($3.45 foreign). Subscription price: $21.00 per year; $26.25 for foreign mailing. op a ° UJS. GOVERNMENT HUNTING OFFICE: 1982 O—90-688 35 35 36
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