Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1949
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Joint
yL/ £c 7/fc 7/9 v9 - ^
Comminee Prini
1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
85917
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:
As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indicators from the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established, its members realized that
one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture
of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their
desire for this information. Since nothing contained
in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July,
provided the Congress and the public with a limited
number of copies of Economic Indicators as a Committee
print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. Since such legislatiot
is still under consideration, the Committee is continuing
to issue the report on a monthly basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always b<
welcome.
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter of Transmittal
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,
Chairman.
(
' /
Vice Chairman.
iii
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Page
The Nation's Economic Budget
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices.
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. .
Stock Prices. .
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours. .
..
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment.
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports. .
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
,. . , ,
29
W
II
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget dollar total increased by 4 percent from the 1st half to the 2nd half
of 1948. The Government surplus declined sharply as receipts fell and payments rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
1948, FIRST HALF
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJ
1948, SECOND HALF
1948,
FIRST HALF
Transfer payments .
CONSUMERS
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS**)
t
CONSUMER
SAVING
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS
619 *'
49 8
^Transfer payments*
1948, SECOND HALF
Transfer payments <
CONSUMERS
INTERNATIONAL
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS
payments*
TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT
IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
' INCLUDES AN ADJUSTMENT OF + $ 2.8 BILLION IN FIRST HALF AND - $ 2.3 BILLION IN SECOND HALF.
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT. JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A.
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices in December were 2% below the September peak. Food prices accounted for most of
the decline,while apparel prices dropped slightly. Rent continued upward.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
225
225
200 -
200
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
1940
1939
1941
1943
1942
1944
1945
1947
1946
1948
*ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1935-39=100]
All items l
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
Food
Apparel
Rent
99.4
105. 2
116. 5
123 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
95.2
105. 5
123.9
138 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
100.5
106.3
124.2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160.2
185.8
198. 0
104. 3
106.2
108.5
108.0
108.2
108.3
108. 6
111.2
117. 4
1947: November
December
164. 9
167. 0
202. 7
206. 9
190.2
191.2
115.2
115.4
1948: January .
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
168. 8
167. 5
166. 9
169. 3
170. 5
171.7
173 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171. 4
209. 7
204. 7
202. 3
207.9
210.9
214. 1
216 8
216. 6
215.2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
192. 1
195. 1
196.3
196.4
197.5
196.9
197. 1
199. 7
201.0
201.6
201, 4
200, 4
115. 9
116.0
116.3
116.3
116.7
117.0
117. H
117. 7r
1 1 8. «>
118,7
1
_
._
. __
..
Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, refrigeration, and
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor,
118. K
J H>, fi
WHOLESALE PRICES
Further declines in farm and food prices brought the wholesale price level down again in January to about
that of February 1948. Other than farm and food prices rose slightly.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
WEEKLY INDE,X
200
200
-FARM PRC DUCTS
180
180
*"*********«VX-rooDS
'\
^
*».,
^^^B*»^
'ALL COMMODITIES^^^
160
140
120
120
100
100
i
60
1940
1939
1946
1942
1941
1947
1948
1949
| i 1I i i |
NOV.
DEC.
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL
OF ECONOMIC
[1926=100]
All commodities
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June
1947 monthly average
- 1948 monthly average
».
1 948 * January
February _..
March
April
- .Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December >
1949: Week ended:
Jan. 4
11 _ . _
18_
25
Feb. 1 J
'
__
A»A«,J
1
_
•.
Farm products
Foods
Other than
farm and
foods
77. 1
87. 3
98 8
121 1
112. 9
152 1
164. 9
165 7
160. 9
161.4
162 8
163 9
166 2
168 7
169 5
168. 7
165. 2
163 9
162. 2
65 3
82.4
105 9
148 9
140. 1
181 2
188. 3
199 2
185. 3
186. 0
186 7
189 1
196 0
195. 2
191. 0
189. 9
183. 5
180 8
177. 3
70. 4
82. 7
99 6
130 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 1
179 9
172.4
173. 8
176. 7
177.4
181.4
188. 3
189.5
186. 9
178. 2
174 3
170. 2
81. 3
89.0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135. 2
150. 6
148. 3
147. 6
147.7
148. 7
149. 1
149. 5
151. 1
153. 1
153. 3
153. 1
153. 3
152.8
161. 3
160. 5
159. 3
158. 8
158.8
175. 5
174. 3
170. 1
167. 9
168.9
168. 0
164.4
161. 9
159. 2
158. 6
152.6
152.9
153.0
153.6
153.5
Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit sucii a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.
1
'
'
JAN.
1949
ADVISERS
60
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received and paid by farmers remained unchanged from December to January.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 19IO~I4 AVERAGE
350
350
MONTHLY AVERA8E
PRICES RECEIVED
3 GO
300
250
250
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
200
200
150
150
100
100
PARITY RATIO
50
50
I
1939
I
40
I
41
I I
I
42
43
44
45
46
J
I
F M A M J J A S O N ' D J F M A M J
1947
I
I
D
I I
J F M A M J
1949
Prices paid by
Prices
farmers (includ- Parity ratio3
received
ing interest2
by farmers * and
taxes)
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
_
1947: December..
_
_..
._
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
124
132
150
162
170
174
194
231
249
301
245
307
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
268
251
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
250
249
247
248
268
248
» August 1909-July 1914=100.
1910-14= 100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
2
3
I
COUNClt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1949: January
I
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
1948: January.—
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October.
November
December
I
J A S O N
77
94
106
119
115
116
120
120
115
123
122
112
115
117
116
118
120
117
116
111
110
108
108
STOCK PRICES
After dropping from October through December 1948, stock prices rose in January.
PERCENT
PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 A V E R A G E
OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175
175
I 50
150
125
125
100
100
75
50
I
1939
40
41
42
43
44
45
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I I
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J
46
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE : STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.
[1935-39=100]
Combined
index l
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average —
1943 monthly average .„
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1947 : December
1948; January - »
February
March . .
April
May
. .
June
July
August
September _ _
October
November
December
. . --1949: Januarv __
--
94.2
80.0
69. 4
91. 9
99.8
121. 5
139. 9
123.0
124. 4
122.4
120. 1
114.2
116.4
124.6
130.2
135. 1
131.9
127. 1
125.7
127.8
120. 4
119. 4
121. 0
Industrials
1
94.8
80.4
71.3
94. 1
101.7
123. 3
143.4
128.0
130. 6
129.2
126.0
119.2
121.8
130.8
136. 9
142.7
138.9
133. 5
131.7
134.3
126. 4
125. 5
127.3
Railroads l
74.7
70. 6
66. 1
88. 7
101.0
136. 9
143. 0
105.3
114. 8
103.9
106. 5
101. 9
105.2
115.2
122.6
125. 6
124.7
119. 7
120.4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
Utilities »
98. 6
81 0
61. 3
82 1
89. 9
106 1
120 2
102. 9
96. 3
94.0
95. 1
92. 6
93.0
96.2
99.2
100. 6
99.5
97 3
97.3
97.4
94. 2
92. 9
94. 2
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
EMPLOYMENT
Unemployment increased more than seasonally in January k> about 2.7 million, just above the level
of February 1948. Employment dropped by 2 million.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
75
75
TOTAL
LABOR FORCE
NOMAGRSCULTURE
25 -
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
J
UNEMPLOYEC)
-
F
M
A
-rv1AGNIFIED
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
1944
A
M
J
, , , , , " "
1946
1945
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Period
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1947: December.
1948: January
February
March
April
May .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
M
SCALE
@ m~
1941
F
fc
_
...
Civilians employed
Total
In nonagricultural
industries
In agriculture
Armed
forces
Unemployed
57, 380
65, 890
65, 140
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
50, 350
53,960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
9, 100
8,950
8,580
8, 320
8,266
7,973
1,470
11,260
11, 280
3,300
1,440
1,307
5, 560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141
2,064
60, 870
60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65,135
64,511
63, 578
63,166
63, 138
62, 828
61, 546
57, 947
57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61, 296
61,615
61, 245
60,312
60, 134
59,893
59, 434
57, 414
50, 985
50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51, 506
51, 932
52, 059
50, 651
6,962
7,060
6, 771
6,847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9,163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375
6,763
1,280
1,241
1,226
,236
,236
,238
,261
,293
1,325
1, 366
1,391
1, 414
1,453
1,468
1,643
2, 065
2, 639
2, 440
2, 193
1,761
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
2, 664
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
Employment in manufacturing industries dropped 200,000 in December to a total of 16.2 million, or
slightly under the level of a year before. Employment in trade and post offices(part of government)
increased seasonally.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
12
1939
SOURCE:
1940
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
12
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
I | | | ! I | I I I I I I I I I I i ! I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I o
J F M A M J J A ' S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J t l A S O N D
1947
1948
J949
Deportment of Lobor
Council of Economic Advisers
[Thousands of wage and salary workers l]
Durable
manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly
1943 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
1948 monthly
average
average
average
average
average 2
1947: November.
December
_
„
»
1948i January
.
February
. „
March
April- .
May
._
_June
July
August
September
October 2
November
»
_
December2.,
_
_
_
_ „
~
!_
Nondurable
manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
service
public
State, local)
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
4,357
10, 297
7, 180
8,055
8,213
5,720
7, 084
7,335
7,846
8,059
6, 705
7,322
8 820
9, 450
9, 746
4, 610
5, 187
6 016
6 278
6 403
3, 987
6,049
5 607
5, 450
5, 658
2, 912
3, 619
4, 023
4,059
4,065
1, 150
1,567
1, 661
1,921
2,063
84i
91'
85!
91
92^
8, 194
8,274
8,062
8,080
9,886
10, 288
6,343
6,364
5, 387
5, 638
4,077
4,071
2,046
1, 978
92J
92J
8,256
8, 167
8,258
8, 164
8, 114
8, 122
8,165
8, 188
8,294
8,319
8,301
8,214
8,011
8,016
8,011
7,786
7,778
7, 993
8,007
8,253
8,403
8,279
8, 148
8,028
9, 622
9, 520
9, 598
9, 576
9, 617
9, 670
9,646
9, 660
9, 733
9,889
10, 035
10, 387
6, 403
6, 420
6,426
6, 472
6,454
6 389
6,399
6, 383
6,379
6,377
6, 376
6,354
5,498
5,492
5, 546
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5,604
5, 650
5,801
5, 789
5, 714
5, 994
4,020
4,019
4,032
3,974
4,042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4,092
4, 090
4, 066
4,069
1,871
1,731
1, 805
1,933
2,052
2, 173
2,219
2,253
2,239
2,206
2, 161
2,109
92!
9192<
81'
93J
95(
92!
95!
94!
94
941
93
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period endin
tumrest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from thi
ttibte not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which includ
|*i«t|irietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; an
witir.lt8 are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Preliminary estimate.
Digitized for Bource:
FRASERDepartment of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
A slight decrease in average weekly hours was registered generally in November. Preliminary data for December
show a return to the October level for manufacturing.
HOUF?S PER WEEK,
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50
50
MONTHLY AVERAGE
55
40
40
rm
1
30
30
20
-
-
_
20
-
,
i i i i \ \ i ii ii
0
,1939 41
44
45
1946
i . , ., i , . , . i
1947
1939 41
1948
44
45
1948
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
50
RETAIL TRADE
50
MONTHLY AVERAGE
40
«***——v
IVj*^^""^*!*
m
30
20
~
1-
-
20
10
. .... h,, . .
0
1939 41
44
45
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT
|
1 1
I
1 1 1 1
1 1 I
1 .
,
, ,
1946
1
, ,
1
, 1
1939 41
1948
44
45
1946
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVrSERS
OF LABOR.
[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries
Period
Bituminous
coal mining
Private
building
construction *
Retail trade
1 939 monthly average
1 94 1 monthly average
1944 monthly average
. . . .
1945 monthly average ». ... . . .
1946 monthly average-..—.-----.---..1947 monthly average ........
37. 7
40.6
45. 2
43. 4
40.4
40.3
27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42. 3
41.6
40. 7
32. 6
34.8
39. 6
39.0
38. 1
37.8
43.0
42.5
40. 3
40.3
40.5
40.2
1947: October
November . .
December
.
...*.*...
40. 6
40.4
41.2
39. 9
38. 5
41.2
38. 1
36.6
37.9
40.0
39.5
39.7
1948* January. .......
._.....--February
„_.
.. .
March . .
<
<
April
_
May.
. ,. _ _ .
,
•
June
-w - - -July
• August
• .- . -• .
September
.
.,
3
October ..-.., -.. - .
November 3
December ^
40. 5
40. 2
40.4
40. 1
39.9
40.2
39.8
40. 1
39. 8
39.9
39. 7
39. 9
40.9
38. 7
40.
6
2
27. 0
40.3
39.9
34.2
39.4
37.7
38.6
37. 1
37.2
36.7
37. 1
37. 0
37. 1
37. 9
37.8
37.8
37.5
37.4
36. 7
39.8
40.0
39.8
39.8
39. 9
40. 3
40.8
41.0
40. 2
39. 7
39.5
1
2
3
.
.
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
WORK STOPPAGES
Work stoppages dropped sharply in December.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25
M i l l tON's
in
20
15
PEAK MONTH
1939 40
41
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT
42
43
44
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N I
45
OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S f W
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
Period
1939: Monthly average
April—peak month
_
1941: Monthly average _ _
April—peak month
1942: Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
.. June —peak month
_
_ _ _
1944: Monthly average
1945: Monthly average
October—peak month
1946: Monthly average
__,
_ .. > . _ _
February—peak month ..
1947: Monthly average
April—peak month
1948: Monthly average l
1948: May 1
June 1*
July 1
August . 1
September
. .
October1 . _
November *._•
December * _
1
Preliminary estimate.
__. _
_.
.»
__
-
..
.
_ _ _ _
_
„. _
_ . .
1, 484
4, 902
1,921
7, 113
0. 28
349
.05
1, 125
4, 699
727
.
„.._
. _
_ >
„
Source: Department of Labor.
,
Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
3, 168
8, 610
9, 672
22, 900
2, 993
8, 540
2, 833
4, 100
2, 200
2, 750
2, 100
2, 500
2,000
1, 900
600
. 32
1. 13
. 15
.62
.09
.47
1.39
1.43
4. 19
.41
1. 19
.6
.3
.3
.2
.3
.3
.3
.1
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
D- i
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production declined about \{/z percent in December, chiefly as a result of reduced
output of nondurable goods. Preliminary data indicate that production continued in
January at about the December rate.
250 h
250
200 -
200
50
N
1947
* PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATE
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RRESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL
OF ECONOMIC ADVISER
[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total =100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Mining
production Total Durable
goods ble goods
1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average-..
1947 monthly average.-.
1948 monthly average *-.
1947: December
1948: January..
February
.....
March
April
May
June
July
August
September _
October
November
December *
1949: January *_ ...
Preliminary estimate.
0
1948
100
239
203
170
187
192
192
193
194
191
188
192
192
186
191
192
195
195
192
192
100
258
214
177
194
198
198
201
201
200
195
197
198
191
197
199
202
201
198
200
100
360
274
192
220
225
230
229
226
229
217
221
222
219
222
225
230
229
228
229
100
176
166
165
172
177
173
178
180
177
177
178
179
169
176
178
179
178
174
176
100
132
137
134
149
155
156
154
155
142
147
162
159
153
159
156
158
161
156
153
Manufactures
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
87
87
86
87
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
"87
87
87
Nondura- Mining
ble goods
47
83
78
77
81
83
81
83
84
83
83
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
81
82
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
15
20
21
21
23
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24
23
24
24
24
25
24
23
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Output of transportation equipment in December was 2 percent over November. There was
little change in lumber, or in iron and steel.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
LUMBER AND
PRODUCTS
400
MONTHLV A V E R A G E
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
700
JlL*
1943 1945
1935-39
1943 1945
1946
1947
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
I I I I I I i I I
1935-39
1935-39
1943 1345
1948
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment
Period
Lumber and
products
Iron and steel
1935—39 monthly average
.
1943 monthly average
«,. .. ....... . ...
1945 monthly average
.. - - ...
1946 monthly average
..
..
..
1947 monthly average l
1948 monthly average
.
100
734
487
232
230
234
100
130
110
130
144
146
100
208
183
150
195
208
1947r November
December
234
244
150
153
202
205
244
232
240
237
218
223
235
231
231
240
236
240
155
150
151
145
142
140
142
149
143
147
145
144
203
203
207
177
207
207
200
207
214
221
223
222
1948: January ..
February _
March
April
May
..
June
July
August
September,.
October
November.l
December
1
.- .
.
_
-
_._.-.
..
.
-
...
.........
...
- ...
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Textile output dropped 4 percent in December, while petroleum and coal products rose 2 percent.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300
MONTHLY AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
200
100
1935-39
43
45
1935-39
43
1947
1946
45
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
400
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
300
200
200
100
100
1935-39
43
1935-39
45
43
1947
1946
45
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average 1
1948 monthly average
r «.
.
.
„„
1947: November
December.
1948: January
February
March
April
M ay
..,
June..
July
August
September
October
November
December1
1
„
.
_
_ __
_
.
__
„ _•
.
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
172
163
205
208
158
158
251
254
179
179
175
174
176
174
154
166
168
167
164
157
214
215
211
213
220
221
217
222
207
217
226
230
158
160
158
157
159
163
160
154
163
161
159
158
255
252
250
249
249
256
251
259
257
255
256
256
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Petroleum
and coal
products
NEW CONSTRUCTION
The decline in the volume of construction activity in January was less than in January 1948. The value of
private construction was about equal to a year ago while public construction was almost !/3 higher.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000
2,000
MONTHLY AVERAGE
TOTAL
NEW CONSTRUCTION
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
1
O
1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL
OF
ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
Total
private
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1947: December
1948: January. _
February _ _
March
April
May
June
July
_
August
September
October
November.
December _ _
1949: January 2
1
2
..
.
_
_ _
526
1, 118
345
401
871
1, 165
1,472
1,320
1, 157
1, 009
1, 166
1,311
1,461
1,616
1, 715
1,799
1,782
1,707
1,552
1,391
1,261
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
226
688
908
13 136
1,097
948
837
940
1,024
1, 120
1,235
1,318
1,354
1,332
1,265
1, 178
1,080
978
176
110
45
57
265
438
582
610
500
400
475
525
585
635
680
695
685
650
600
550
490
Other
141
141
107
169
422
469
554
487
448
437
466
499
535
600
638
659
647
615
578
530
488
Federal,
State, and
local *
208
867
193
174
184
257
336
223
209
172
226
287
341
381
397
445
450
442
374
311
283
Includes public residential ^construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
13
NEW HOUSING STARTS
In December, housing starts declined less than half as much as in the preceding year. They were slightly below
the levels of a year ago but 40 percent above those of two years ago.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
100
100
40
-
-
-
- 40
20
-
-
-
- 20
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LA80R,
New nonfarm units (conventional
and
prefabricated) l
Period
Total
1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 2
1948 monthly average
1947: July _
August
September.
October
November
December
1948: Januarv _
February
'
March
April
..
.
».
. ... . ... ... ..
.
;
May
June
July
August- 2
September
October 2
November22
December
1
2
..
_
..
__
_
_ _
64, 683
71, 125
77, 233
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
52, 600
49, 600
75, 100
98, 800
99, 400
97, 500
93, 500
86, 300
81, 000
72, 000
65, 000
56, 000
Urban
Rural nonfarm
41, 164
40, 125
23, 520
31, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300
30, 400
28,800
42, 000
54, 400
56, 700
54, 400
51, 600
47, 400
36, 600
38, 900
43, 500
40, 800
31, 700
22, 500
22, 200
20, 800
33, 100
44, 400
42, 700
43, 100
41, 900
38, 900
New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment are expected to show a seasonal decline in the
first quarter of 1949, but present estimates run above first quarter of 1948. Railroad and utility
investment continues to increase in relative importance.
SILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
20
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
FUTILITIES
10
10
_ 0
1939
1941
* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
1945
VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transportation
Total i
Period
Manufacturing
Mining
Railroad
1939
1941
1945
1946
1947 s
1948
. --_
_-_•
-_-_
- -
1947: First quarter
Second /quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter. 4
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 4
.
--
Other
Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2
5,200
8,190
6,630
12, 040
16, 180
18, 840
1,930
3,400
3, 210
5,910
7,460
8, 180
380
680
440
560
690
770
280
560
550
570
910
1,310
280
340
320
660
800
690
480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2, 610
1, 850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,280
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
5,800
7, 400
7, 480
9,160
600
640
720
840
640
880
920
1,200
720
920
800
760
1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480
3,600
4, 120
4,640
5,360
16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
20, 040
7,200
8,560
8,360
8,640
720
800
800
720
1,080
1,240
1,320
1,600
720
760
680
640
2,000
2,560
2,760
3,120
4, 960
5, 360
5,440
5,320
17, 560
7, 120
720
1,480
600
2,720
4,880
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Based
on actual expenditures for first three quarters
4
and estimates for the fourth quarter.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
The seasonal increase in the 4th quarter, while less than in the preceding year, brought the yearly
total of corporate security issues close to that of 1947.
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
3 .0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0
QUARTERLY
AVERAGE
2.5
2.0
SOURCE:
SECURITIES
I
1943
1945
AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION.
1939
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3 4
[Millions of dollars]
]3roposed uses of net proceed3
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939 quarterly average
1943 quarterly average
1945 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average
1947 quarterly average _
1948 quarterly average2
_
__
1947: First quarter
Second quarter. _
_
Third quarter Fourth quarter. _ _ _
1948: First quarter
_
Second quarter
Third quarter 2
Fourth quarter
1
2
. .. ..
_
__
_ _ _ _
__
_.
_
.
-
__
_
__ __
_
.
.
- -_ _ _ _ _
529
287
1,475
1,689
1,617
1,599
L6
1, 148
1, 388
402
661
692
305
338
192
347
348
727
490
310
845
555
274
280
316
214
309
221
97
1,032
1.654
1, 614
1,663
1,266
1, 852
1, 400
1,353
1,046
1, 754
1,080
884
Retirement
of debt and
stock i
39
42.
Ill
291
296
356
2,000
706
1,000
Working
capital
43
35
159
529
852
1, 054
1,727
1,374
2,311
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
81
77
270
820
Plant and
equipment
765
1,438
448
210
1,206
869
469
210
1
INVENTORIES AND SALES
1Retail sales, which had been showing less than the normal
1fhan seasonally in December and exceeded the 1947 level
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
seasonal rise through the autumn, increased more
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MANUFACTURING
30
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
j*<**
WHOLESALE
^
30
«.**-
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
INVENTORIES*
20
20
^f^
^^~
SALES*
1 0
10
i
SALES V,.
.
0
i i i i l 11 i i l \
1 1 | 1l I 1 \ l i i
1946
1947
1
1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 l
*
^^ _
r
INVENTORIES *
i l i i i 1 i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1 i i I i I
0
1946
1948
-mm
i i l i i 1i l l i l
1947
1948
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
RETAIL
DEPARTMENT STORES
30
400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
20
'/f^1<""**""'*""*^\/y
SALES**
300
INVENTORIES!
J^***^^r
10
.. ~ti
S**
200
INVENTORIES**
SALES*
0
i l i i l 1 I i i i l
l l i l l I i \ i i i
1946
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
i i I I l 1 1i l I I
1 00
1946
1948
\ l I I I 1 1 l i i l
i i i i i 1 i i l 1 i
1947
1948
<•* INDEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOR MONTH. AND RETAIL
X
SALES ARE
*
TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH.
SOURCES'. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL fl ESERVE
Inventories *
Sales*
COUNCIL
Wholesale l
Manufacturing *
Period
SYS1"EM.
Inventories *
Retail*
Sales «
Inventories '
1
18, 773
19, 468
21,500
23, 432
27, 055
27, 397
27, 627
28, 020
28, 501
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31, 200
31, 700
10, 712
11, 132
13, 055
14, 634
16, 597
18, 082
16, 554
17, 523
16, 552
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
18, 000
18, 300
4,309
4,337
5,172
5,823
7,233
7,342
7,467
7,545
7,850
7,885
7,869
7,777
7,801
7,953
7,930
8, 100
8,243
8,382
8,501
8,286
5, 338
5,575
6,321
7,118
7,763
8,716
8,013
8,262
7,692
7,121
7,726
7,652
7,389
7,766
7,796
8,161
8,286
8,376
8,242
8, 191
ADVISERS
Department stores
Sales *
Inventories
Sales
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted *
Millions of dollars
1946: March
,
June- _.,.. September
,.
December
.
...
1947: September
_„
October
..,
November
December
,
,
1948* January
February. -_ - *. .« March
..,
t»
April -»-------^-»
-. ._._,.
May _-_-- --.-»--.__-_--.- „...,.
June
»„--«.-._.-„
July
,.
August e
,,-„
„ - ,.
September
P.„
October 8fl
„„
November
_„
.
December 6
OF ECONOMIC
8,023
8,917
9,995
11, 049
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12, 953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 562
7,796
8, 164
8,876
9,258
10, 264
10, 292
10, 426
10, 620
10, 464
10, 463
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11,074
177
210
226
274
232
252
273
285
289
306
313
309
297
284
273
268
275
282
304
306
255
275
272
276
294
279
302
303
286
286
285
306
310
312
316
311
312
mm
287
;MM»
8
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of month.
6
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reeeryp gvstem.
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
* Adjusted for seasonal variation.
3
Book value, end of month.
* Total for month.
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports fell 20 percent in November to the lowest level in two years as the maritime strike hit the East
Coast. The value of imports fell 10 percent.
MILLIONS
OF
MILLIONS
DOLLARS
OF
DOLLARS
1,600
I,60C
MONTHLY
AVERAGES
1,400
1,400
1,200
I,2OO
1,000
-
1,000
—
600
800
600
400
400
—
200
1943
1936-38
J
1945
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
AREAS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE
NAVY
[Millions of dollars]
Exports 1
Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average .
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: August-.
September
October
November
December
.__
.
...
'
;
\
,
,
1948: January
.
February . . .
March
April
'.
:
May
June
..
July
August
-
1
J
.
'
.
;
September
October
November .. - _
_
..
'..:.• »
. ..
-
;.. .
..
;
_ .
.
...
Imports *
Excess of
exports
247
1,080
877
849
1, 278
207
282
346
410
478
40
798
531
439
801
1, 265
1, 185
1,304
1, 189
1, 172
400
473
492
455
603
865
712
812
734
569
1, 092
1, 086
1, 138
1, 120
1, 102
1,014
1, 020
986
926
1,020
819
545
582
666
528
549
616
558
598
558
597
550
546
504
473
592
553
398
461
387
368
423
269
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
8
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
O
N
D
200
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
A steady rise throughout 1948 brought total national income for the year to 224 billion dollars, about
10 percent higher than for 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
EASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME
200
200
CORPORATE PROFITS AND •" vSSvXvXvSS
INVENTORY VALUATION
:
& 3$$£%fc"
"'"^^'
PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL
' I NGQMt.
ISO
150
100
IHP COMPENSATION OF
illllllilEMPLOYEES II
1944
J939
1
1945
2
3
4
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVtSERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947 1
1948
_
72.5
182.4
181.7
179.3
202.5
224. 0
Compensation of
employees
Corporate profProprietors'
its and invenand rental Net interest tory
valuation
income
adjustment
47.8
121.1
122.9
117.3
127.5
137.8
14.7
34.1
36.0
41.8
46.0
50.7
5.8
24.0
19.8
16.8
24.7
30. 7
4.2
3.1
3.0
3.4
4.3
47
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
197. 3
199. 3
200.6
212.8
125.0
125.3
127.6
132.2
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter l
Fourth quarter
215. 1
221.7
227.4
2
()
133.7
134.2
140.6
142.8
1
2
:
46.4
44.6
44.4
48.6
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
21.8
25.2
24.3
27.5
,50. 6
51.8
50.2
50,3
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
26.2
30.9
31.6
Preliminary estimate.
Not available.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce {except fourth quarter, 1948).
(2)
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits in the first 3 quarters of 1948 ran above the 1947 levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
40
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 0
.
I 0
1939
1929
1943
*
NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
** Preliminary estimate.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1943
1946
1947 l
1948
. -.
. .
9.8
6.5
24.5
21.8
29.8
34.0
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11.7
13.2
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12.8
18.1
20.8
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9
7.6
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1,2
5.9
7.2
11.2
13.2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter..
Second quarter
Third quarter
1
... .
.
28.9
28.8
29. 1
32.4
11.4
11.3
11. 4
12.7
17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7
6.4
6.7
6.9
7.1
11.1
10.8
10.8
12.6
31.4
33.4
35.5
12.2
13.0
13.8
19.2
20.4
21.7
7.3
7.3
7.7
11.9
13.1
14.0
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 19 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
PERSONAL INCOME
Total personal income continued its steady rise in December; salaries, wages and other labor
income showed a decline while other components increased.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
200
150
PROPR ETORS' ANcf RENTAL YNCOv
100
1939
SOURCE:
1944
J
1945
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947__
19481
.
72. 6
164.5
170. 3
178. 1
195.2
213. 6
Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends Social security
and other
and rental and interest and GI paylabor income
income
ments
45. 7
116. 1
116.8
111.4
121.9
134.3
14. 7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46.0
50.9
9.2
10.6
11.4
13.5
15. 6
17.3
3.0
3.6
6.2
11.4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: November
December
201. 4
207.7
127.4
129. 3
47.1
51.3
16.1
16.2
10.8
10.9
1948: January
_ _
February
__ __
March
_ _ __
April
May
**•>
__- —
June
July
August _
September.
October
___
Novemberl _ _
Decenifeer
__
208. 8
206. 4
205. 7
208. 6
20Q: 2
214. 4
214. 8
216.7
217. 3
218. 5
219. 9
221. 0
129. 3
128. 8
128.5
128. 8
131. 0
133. 4
135. 5
138.0
138. 8
139. 6
140. 1
139. 5
51. 8
49. 6
48. 4
51. 2
50.4
53. 0
51. 2
50. 3
50. 4
50. 7
51.4
52.3
16. 5
16. 6
16. 6
16. 7
16. 8
16. 9
17. 0
17. 3
17.5
17. 8
18. 1
18. 4
11. 2
11.4
12.2
11. 9
11.0
11. 1
.11.1
11. 1
10. 6
10.4
10. 3
10.8
1
;
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
OND
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
At the end of the year consumers' saving was apparently running at an annual rate of about 15 billion
dollars — considerably more than the estimates for 1946 and 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
200
200
I 50
I 00
1939
SOURCE:
1940
1941
1942
1943
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income *
Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943.
1944
1945
1946
1947 2
1948
_
70.2
75.7
92.0
116.2
131.6
145.6
149.4
159.2
173.6
190.4
_
_
_
_
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
111.4
122.8
147.4
164.8
176.8
2.7
3.7
9.8
25.4
30.0
34.2
26. 6
11.8
8.8
13.6
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter..
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter 2
1
2
.
.
.
.
.
......
..
.. _.
169.7
168.2
175. 0
180.9
158.1
164. 2
165.6
171. 1
11.6
4.1
9.4
9.7
184.1
188.2
193. 7
195. 4
172.1
176.5
178. 5
180. 0
12.0
11.7
15.2
15.4
Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because oFroundmg.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948).
PER CAPITA INCOME
The last quarter of 1948 registered a moderate gain in the real purchasing power of consumers,
reflecting mainly a reversal of the upward trend in consumers' prices.
DOLLARS
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1947 DOLLARS*
1,200
800
CURRENT DOLLARS
400
400
I
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
I
PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES,
I
I
I
2
3
1946
I
2
3
1947
2
3
1948
*• CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 0r THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE "1
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Per capita disposable
personal
income 1
Current
1947 dollars *
dollars
. ...
$536
$859
574
913
„ ...
691
1,047
863
1, 169
964
1,217
1,054
1,295
1,070
1,280
1,127
1,258
1,205
1,205
1,299
1,208
Period
1939
1940
1941
1942 ....
1943
1944
_
1945.
1946
1947 4
1948
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1947:
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter ,
Second quarter
Third quarter 4
Fourth quarter
1
2
3
.
-._.
_
Income less taxes.
Current dollars1 divided by the con? mum
The consumers price index hun in-.-n m
December 1941-February 1947. This w l j n U M M
unadjusted
index will be found on page 'J,
4
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Cominorw mul I »*
,_
$1, 186
1, 170
1,212
1,246
1,263
1,286
1,318
1,326
Consumers'
price index3
1947=100
62.4
62.9
66. 0
73.8
79.2
81.4
83. 6
89.6
100.0
107.5
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
$1,218
1,193
1,201
1,203
1,201
1,202
1,206
1,222
97.4
98. 1
100.9
103. 6
105. 2
107. 0
109.3
108. 5
mi*** on the base 1947=100.
• djusted to take account of the understatement from
line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
it of Labor (except fourth quarter, 1948).
23
1
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Hourly earnings continued to rise slightly in November except for bituminous cool mining. Preliminary data for
December show a continuation of this movement in manufacturing industries.
DOLL* RS PER HOUR
DOLLARS PER HOUR
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
1.50
1.50
1947 DOLLARS*
1.00
1947 DOLLARS*
"^^r*
,
1.00
.— —
—-~^T
CUR RENT DOLLARS
CUF IR-ENT' DOLLARS
.50
O
.50
i i i i i 1 i ij i i
1946
!
1
t
1 1
1 1
[
1
1
t
l i 1 i i 1 1 i i i l
1947
O
1948
, , i >< 1 M ' «
1946
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
. 2.OO
2.OO
1947 DOLLARS* ^_^~«~~^-^
1947 DOLLARS*
'
L-***-*^-
^"""*
1.50
I.5O
J
--%
CUF RENT DOLLARS
RENT DOLLARS
—J
CUF
I.OO
1.00
.50
.50
0
i i ; t i 1 i i i i i
1948
i i i i , 1 , i i ii
1947
, , ! , , !
i i i i i 1 r i i i l
1946
1947
1
1
,
1
,
1
.
,
1
1
,
0
i » i i i 1 i ) i i i
i i t i : 1 i i i it
1946
1947
1948
t
f 1 i
t
1 ! ! l
t
l
1948
* cuffffentr ooiiAffS DIVIDED sr CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX OK THE BASE 19471100,
SOURCE-' DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AQVISERS
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average1946 monthly average
1947 monthly fvv^rfigp, . , ,
1947: September
October
November
December.
1948: January
February March- April
May
June .
July
Current
dollars
- -
._
September
October * 4
November
-
"DfinRTnher *
_
$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1. 221
1.249
1. 258
1.268
1.278
1.285
1.287
1.289
1.292
1.301
1.316
1.332
1.349
1.362
1.366
1.371
1.378
1947
dollars >
$1. 014
1. 105
1.252
1.224
1. 210
1.221
1.215
1.224
1.225
1.219
1. 213
1.225
1.231
1.217
1. 216
1.222
1.222
1.232
1.244
1. 254
1. 269
1. 281
Retail trade
Current
dollars
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
1.012
1.013
1.025
1.016
1.044
1.050
1.044
1.055
1.064
1.070
1.077
1. 080
1.086
1.080
1. 084
1947
dollars *
$0. 859
.861
.889
.925
.980
.991
.984
.985
.990
.969
.986
.999
.997
.993
. 994
. 994
.988
.986
.992
.992
1.004
Bituminous coal mining
$0. 386
.993
1. 186
1.240
1. 401
1.644
1. 819
1.798
1.851
1.826
1. 847
1.826
1.842
VI. 821
1.841
1. 850
1.936
1.967
1. 966
1.959
1.951
i Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947= 100. See note 3 to table on page 23.
Source: Department of Labor.
1
1947
dollars*
Current
dollars
$1.420
1. 505
1.457
1.483
1; 564
1. 644
1. 769
1.749
1.788
1.742
1.744
1.737
1. 759
* 1. 715
1. 721
1.718
1. 776
1. 796
- 1.795
1. 799
1.806
a
Based
1
Private building construction »
Current
dollars
$0- 932
1.010
1. 319
1.379
1.478
1.676
1.723
1.743
1.765
1, 774
1. 781
1.806
1.805
1.818
1.835
1.858
1.890
1.901
1.919
1.920
1.937
1947
dollars *
$1. 494
1.530
1.620
1.650
1.650
1.676
1.676
1.696
1.705
1.693
1.682
1.718
1.724
1.712
1.715
1.725
1.734
1.736
1. 753
1.763
1.794
on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
The general decrease in average weekly earnings in November resulted from shorter hours of work.
data for December show that weekly earnings in manufacturing increased to a new
nigh of about $55.
1Dreliminary
DOLt.ARS PER WEEK
DOt t AH', f t M WtEK
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
GO
60
CURRENT DOLLARS.
X^^-^l
*^--"*
~
_*-—^—
40
CURRENT DOLLARS
^
40
1947 DOLLARS*
-
--
\
-=^rf.'g"S'"^^
B-afc-^-^-^^^^rr^:
ft
*
*
1947 DOLLARS
20
20 .
i i t i t 1i t i i i
1947
1 1 J 1 1 1 1 I1LII 1 I__J
0
1946
I
1
I I
I 1 1 1 i
11
0
i 1 i i 1 j ^ I.J.JLJL
1948
1946
i i i i i ( i i i t i
**
1 I
1 1 !
1947
1 1
1 1 I 1
1948
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
100
!00
80
'
60
,^
/•"
v
CUR
80
RENT DOLLARS
±-A
.*"*•—y X*s-^* //
-Vi
1947 DOLLARS
V-^i
CURRENT DOLLARS
^~^—i
60
**
1947 DOLLARS* *
40
40
20
20
0
! 1 1 1 1 LJ I U 1
1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 ! I
i iiii1iiiii
1947
1948
1946
j
0
* EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING TH£S£ MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OK VAC 6TIONS,
1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 l 1 1
1946
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i
1947
i 1 1 11 I I I I ! I
1948
X- * ' CURRENT DOLLARS DlVIPtO 0r CONSUMER $' PRICE INDEX ON BAS? OF 1947 : IOO
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average,.
1941 monthly average..
1944 monthly average..
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average..
1947 monthly average..
1947: September
October
_..
November _ _ „
December—
1948* January
February
March
April
May
June
..
July
August
September
October 4 4
November 4
December
1
8
Current
dollars
$23. 86
29.58
46.08
44.39
43.74
49.25
50.47
51. 05
51. 29
52.69
52.07
51.75
52.07
51. 79
51. 86
52. 85
52. 95
54. 05
54.18
54. 50
54.47
55.01
1947 dollars *
$38. 24
44.82
56. 61
53. 10
48.82
49.25
49. 10
49.66
49.56
50.28
49. 17
49.24
49.73
48.77
48. 47
49.07
48. 58
49.36
49.48
50.05
50.43
51. 12
Retail trade
Current
dollars
$21. 17
21.94
26.58
28.31
32.55
36.67
37.06
36.74
37. 14
37.51
37.62
38.33
38.89
39.27
39.84
40.52
41. 19
41. 19
40.48
40. 32
39. 67
1947 dollars *
$33. 93
33.24
32. 65
33. 86
36. 33
36.67
36.05
35.74
35.88
35.79
35. 52
36.47
37. 14
36. 98
37. 23
37.62
37. 79
37. 62
36. 97
37.02
36.73
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers1 price index on the base 1947=100.
See note 3 to table on page 23.
Source: Department of Labor.
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$23. 88
30. 86
51. 27
52. 25
58. 03
66. 86
71. 19
71. 91
71. 77
75. 22
75.78
70. 54
74.84
3 49. 53
74. 08
73.87
67. 62
78. 10
74.98
76. 40
73. 52
1
4
1947 dollars*
$38. 27
46.76
62. 99
62. 50
64. 77
66.86
69.25
69.95
69.34
71.77
71. 56
67. 12
71. 48
3
46. 64
69. 23
68. 59
62. 04
71. 32
68.47
70. 16
68. 07
Private building construction *
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56. 24
63.30
65.36
66.36
64.55
67.31
66.28
66.31
66.89
67.31
68. 13
70.49
71.38
71.89
72. 06
71.79
71.02
1947 dollars *
$48. 70
53.24
64. 10
64.27
62. 77
63 30
63. 58
64. 55
62.37
64.23
62. 59
63.09
63.89
63. 38
63. 67
65.45
65.49
65. 65
65. 81
65.92
65.76
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
9J5
FARM INCOME
Gosh farm income continued seasonally downward in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
M J J A S O N
1939
,1948
* CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKET!
** FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX Of PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXIS ON THE BASE 1939 s IOO,
COUNCIL. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
Period
1939 monthly average.
...
.... 1941 monthly average ...
1942 monthly average
.
.
1943 monthly average-.-.
....
.
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
.,
....
...
. _
1946 monthly average*
. ....
- .
..
1947 monthly average-4 ....
.
.
1948 monthly average
1947; December.. ..
.
..
1948: January ......
February. .
. .
. ... .
March . . ........
.
.....
April
May
.
June
July
_
August
.
„_
September
October
November 4
December
1
Includes
1
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) »
Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939=
100»
723
981
1,340
1, 678
1,753
1, 857
2 136
2, 542
2, 609
2 843
2 571
1 862
1, 932
2, 075
2 119
2,437
2,693
2,722
3, 132
3,714
3, 314
2.740
100. 0
106. 5
121. 0
130. 6
136. 3
138. 7
155. 6
186. 3
201. 1
197. 6
202. 4
200. 0
199. 2
200. 8
201.6
202.4
202. 4
202.4
201. 6
200.8
199.2
200.0
Farm income
(millions of
1939 dollars) »
cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.
, 1^,^ |ncome jn current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939« 400.
4
Preliminary.
Source: Department off Agriculture.
723
921
1, 107
1, 285
1,286
1,339
1,373
1,364
1, 298
1, 439
1,270
931
970
1,033
1,051
1,204
1, 331
1,345
1,554
1,850
1,664
1;370
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
Expenditures for both durable and nondurable goods increased less in 1948 than in 1947. Expenditures
for services, however, increased more than in the preceding year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
!
200
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ANNUAL TOTALS
I 50
150
100
50
1944
1939
1945
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except fourth quarter of 1948).
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939
1944 .
1945..
19461947..
1948 i
67.5
111.4
122.8
147.4
164.8
176.8
35.3
67.5
75.4
87.5
96.5
102. 7
Durable
goods
6.7
6.9
8.3
16.2
21.0
22.7
Services
25.5
37.0
39.2
43.6
47.3
51.3
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter
158.1
164.2
165. 6
171. 1
92.5
96.3
96.8
100.2
19.6
21.1
21. 1
22.1
46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter *
172. 1
176.5
178.5
180.0
101.2
103.2
102.9
103. 5
21.2
22.6
23.6
23.5
49.7
50.6
51.9
53.0
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948).
27
CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer credit, increasing more than $600 million during December, reached $16 billion by the end of the
year. The rise was attributable largely to seasonal increases in charge accounts and instalment credit.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
14
12
10
:- 2
1929
1939 1941 1943
END OF YEAR
A M -J J A
A M J J A S 0
1946
S 0
N D J
F M A M J J
194?
A
S 0 N D
1948
END OF MONTH
SINGLE PAYMENJ LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
SOURCE: Board of Go<
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
1929
1939
1941
1943.
1945
1946
1947 3
1948
1947: December
1948: January
February
__
March
.- . -April
May
June
July
August
September . .
October
November
December 3
7. 6
8. 0
9. 9
5. 3
6. 6
10. 1
13. 4
16. 0
13. 4
13. 1
13. 1
13. 5
13. 8
14.0
14.3
14. 4
14. 5
14. 8
15. 1
15. 3
16.0
_ .
..
.. • . . -
Instalment
credit *
3.2
4. 4
5. 9
1.9
2. 3
3.9
6. 2
8. 2
6.2
6.2
6. 3
6. 6
6. 8
7.0
7.2
7. 4
7. 6
7.8
7. 8
7. 9
8. 2
Charge
accounts
1. 7
1. 5
1. 8
1. 5
2. 0
3. 1
3. 6
3. 9
3.6
3.2
3. 1
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.2
3. 1
3.2
3.5
3. 6
3. 9
Other
consumer
credit 2
2.7
2. 0
2.2
1.9
2. 3
3. 1
3. 6
3. 9
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3. 8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3. 9
1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
2
Includes
single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
8
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
In November end December, bonk loans increased of o rote only slightly less than
that of the comparable period of 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
125
125
TOTAL (AH commercial banks)
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
1
J
I92S !939
1945
END OF YEAR
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
1947
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
*
1948
END OF MONTH
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
PR EL IMINA RY ES JIMA TE
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Council of Economic Advisers
[Billions of dollars]
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49.5
40.7
124.0
114.0
116. 4
114. 3
36.0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
42. 7
13.5
23.4
97. 9
82.9
78.3
71.6
16.3
90.6
74.8
69.3
62.5
9.0
9.1
1947: December
116.3
3a i
78.2
69.2
9.0
1948: January ..
February
March
April.
May ~
June -- - - _
July _
August
September
October
November 1 _
December
116.6
115. 5
113. 6
114. 3
114.5
113.9
114.8
115. 1
113.6
114. 1
114.2
114. 3
38.2
38.7
38. 9
38.8
39.4
39.9
40. 1
40.6
41.7
41. 6
42. 3
42. 7
78.4
76.9
74.7
75.5
75.1
74.0
74.6
74.5
71.9
72.5
71.9
71. 6
69.4
67.9
65.5
66.3
65.9
64.8
65.3
65.1
62.5
63.3
62.8
62. 5
9.0
9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2
End of period
1929
1939
1945
1946
1947
1948 *
1
..
_
__
_
.
_
-- -- - --
-
»
.-
_
_._
_ _
Total
U.S.
Government
securities
4.8
Other
securities
8.7
7. 1
7.3
8. 1
9. 1
9. 1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
SniirnA! Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
OQ
MONEY SUPPLY
Demand and time deposits rose in December resulting in a money supply about equal to
the record level set in 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
200
2001
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
{ EXCLUDING U.S.GOVT. DEPOSITS )
J75
175
150
150
IE5
125
100
100
75
50
50
25
25
CURRENCY _ . , . _ ,
„
'&W$?M$W$$\
1929
1933
1939
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J AS OND
1946
1946
END OF Y E A R
1947
END OF MONTH
S O U R C E : B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM
1948
COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S O R S
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1929.
1939
1941.
1943..
1945..
1946.
1947.3
1948
1947: December. . .
1948: January
.
February
March
,
April
,.
May
June.
July
August
September
..
October
November
.
December 3
1
...
.
...
,
. .
.
.
,
.
.....
.
.....'.. . . . .
.
.
.
..
..
54.6
63.3
76.3
112.3
150.9
164.0
170. 0
168.8
170.0
168.9
167. 1
164.0
165.0
165.2
165.7
166.2
166.7
166.9
168.0
167.9
168.8
Currency
outside
banks
3.6
6. 4
9.6
18.8
26.5
26. 7
26. 5
25. 7
26.5
25.8
25.7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25.6
25. 5
25.6
25.7
25.7
25. 9
25. 7
Adjusted
demand
deposits *
22. 8
29, 8
39. 0
60. 8
75.9
83. 3
87. 1
85. 8
87. 1
86.6
84.6
81.5
82.7
82.8
82.7
83. 4
83.8
83.9
85.0
85.0
85. 8
Time
deposits 2
28.2
27 1
27. 7
32. 7
48. 5
54.0
56. 4
57.3
56. 4
56.5
56.8
56.9
56.9
57.0
57.4
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.0
57.3
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes
deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System,
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE,—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash surplus wcs sharply reduced in the 2nd half of 1948
and would disappear in 1949 under present tax rates and
proposed expenditures.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 50
50
40
30
30
20
Cash
payments
Cosh f
receipts |
\m
1947
1946
1939
1st half*
1948
2d half*
1948
1949
Estimate
15
•Mb
+ 10
•
H
Surplus
+5
'%.
-
in!:::?! "
|
_•
"""""
tilMil^—. Deficit
l**i*J
-5
1939
1947
1946
1st half*
1948
YEARS
CALENDAR
SOURCES:
TREASURY
DEPARTMENT
AND
2d half*
1948
BUREAU OF THE BUDGET.
1949
Estimate
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
AOVISEHS
[Billions of dollars; annual rates, seasonally adjusted]
Calendar year
1939
1946
1947
1948:
First half
Second half
1949 estimate 2
___
_
-
_
~-
-__-.
1
-
_
---
__
_
__
Federal cash
receipts
Federal cash
payments
Surplus (+) or
deficit (— )
6. 6
41. 5
44. 3
9. 5
41. 3
38. 6
—2 9
+ 2
+57
47. 6
+ 42. 3
35. 1
38. 7
43. 7
44. 3
+ 12 5
+36
_ e
1
2
Based on incomplete data.
Based on present and proposed legislation.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
o
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