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105th Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
DECEMBER
1997
(Includes data available as of December 29, 1997)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1997
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Chairman
CONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman
SENATE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
TOM EWING (Illinois)
MARK SANFORD (South Carolina)
MAC THORNBERRY (Texas)
JOHN T. DOOLITTLE (California)
JIM McCRERY (Louisiana)
FORTNEY PETE STARK (California)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York)
CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)
ROD GRAMS (Minnesota)
SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas)
JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)
CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
JANET L. YELLEN, Chair
JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member
REBECCA M. BLANK, Member-Nominee
[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION}
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
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Approved June 23, 1949.
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Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy
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I S B N 0-16-055949-9
11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME AND SPENDING
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
In the third quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose
4.6 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 3.1 percent, and the implicit price deflator
rose 1.4 percent.
8IWONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SCAlf)
BtlUONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SGUEj
8,400
8,400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
-
8,000
8,000
7,600
./
7,200
^/\
GDP
IN CHAINED (1992) DOUARS
6,800
^x;
&,4OO
\ f-^
6,000
7,200
s ~~
//
x .--
7,600
^"
^
6,800
—"
6,400
,
^"
6,000
^-"
X
^~
5,600
5,600
^
f-"~
^s "
5,200
/
s
4,800
/In
X
5,200
GDP
aJRRENTDOUARS
4,800
X
•MOO
4,000
/
3,600
3,200
S\
x"
^
x
s
/
4,400
4,000
3,600
1 1 1
i i i
1 1 1
1 1 1
i i i
1 1 1
i 1.1...
I I I
1
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
!
1
3,200
1 1 1
\ i i
111
l i I
I I i
i i i
I i I
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993- III
IV
1994- I
II
Ill
IV
1995: I
II
III
IV
1996- I
II
Ill
IV
1997- I
II
HI'
1
Exports and imports
Personal Gross
of goods and services
conGross
private
domestic sumption domestic
product expendi- investNet
tures
exports Exports Imports
ment
5,438.7
5,743.8
5,916.7
6,244.4
6,558.1
6,947.0
7,265.4
7,636.0
6,574.6
6,704.2
6,794.3
6,911.4
6,986.5
7,095.7
7,168.9
7,209.5
7,301.3
7,381.9
7,467.5
7,607.7
7,676.0
7,792.9
7,933.6
8.034.3
8.124.3
3,594.8
3,839.3
3,975.1
4,219.8
4,459.2
4,717.0
4,957.7
5,207.6
4,488.6
4,554.9
4,616.6
4,680.5
4,750.6
4,820.2
4.871.7
4,934.8
4,990.6
5,033.8
5,105.8
5,189.1
5,227.4
5,308.1
5,405.7
5,432.1
5,527.4
829.2
799.7
736.2
790.4
876.2
1,007.9
1,038.2
1,116.5
872.8
920.3
963.4
1,017.9
1,007.1
1,043.1
1,050.8
1,024.0
1,028.8
1,049.1
1,060.5
1,105.4
1,149.2
1,151.1
1,193.6
1,242.0
1,250.2
-80.4
-71.3
- 20.5
29 5
-60.7
-90.9
-86.0
-94.8
-72.1
-66.6
-76.6
-87.9
-103.4
- 95.6
-98.3
-105.4
-80.4
-60.1
-83.0
-93.8
-114.0
-88.6
-98.8
-88.7
-111.3
GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Total
Total
509.3
589.7 1,095.1
557.3
628.6 1,176.1
601.8
622.3 1,225.9
639.4
669.0 1,263.8
658.6
719.3 1,283.4
721.2
812.1 1,313.0
818.4
904.5 1,355.5
870.9
965.7 1,406.7
646.8
718.9 1,285.3
679.4
746.0 1,295.5
678.5
755.1 1,291.0
710.1
797.9 1,300.8
732.6
836.0 1,332.3
763.7
859.2 1,328.0
784.5
882.8 1,344.7
807.7
913.1 1,356.0
831.6
912.0 1,362.2
849.9
909.9 1,359.2
850.2
933.2 1,384.2
865.0
958.7 1,407.0
863.7
977.6 1,413.5
904.6
993.2 1,422.3
922.2 1,021.0 1,433.1
960.3 1,049.0 1.449.0
965.8 1,077.1 1,457.9
477.2
503.6
522.6
528.0
518.3
510.2
509.6
520.0
515.7
518.5
506.9
505.3
520.4
508.3
513.6
511.2
512.9
500.6
516.4
524.6
521.6
517.6
516.1
526.1
525.7
National Nondefense defense
360.6
373.1
383.5
375.8
360.7
349.2
344.6
352,8
358.0
359.4
344.9
348.5
359.7
343.6
346.3
348.1
347.3
336.5
348.4
357.3
354.8
350.6
343.3
350.6
352.1
116.7
130.4
139.1
152.2
157.7
161.0
165.0
167.3
157.7
159.1
162.0
156.8
160.7
164.7
167.3
163.0
165.5
164.1
168.0
167.3
166.8
167.0
172.8
175.5
173.6
State
and
local
617.9
672.6
703.4
735.8
765.0
802.8
846.0
886.7
769.6
777.0
784.1
795.5
811.9
819.6
831.1
844.8
849.3
858.6
867.8
882.4
891.9
904.7
917.0
923.0
932.3
AddenFinal
Gross
dum:
sales of domestic
Gross
domestic
pur- ]
national
product chases
product
5,407.0
5,735.8
5,919.0
6,237.4
6,537.6
6,885.7
7,235.3
7,610.2
6,560.6
6,681.3
6,741.9
6,835.1
6,936.3
7,029.6
7,116.8
7,185.0
7,281.8
7,357.4
7,456.4
7,584.3
7,638.9
7,761.0
7,867.4
7,953.2
8,075.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Ariajysi
5,519.1
5,815.1
5,937.2
6,274.0
6,618.8
7,037.9
7,351.4
7,730.9
6.646.7
6,770.8
6,870.9
6,999.2
7.090.0
7,191.3
7,267.2
7,314.8
7,381.7
7,442.0
7.550.5
7,701.5
7,790.0
7,881.5
8,032.4
8,123.1
8,235.6
5,452.8
5.764.9
5,932.4
6,255.5
6,576.8
6,955.2
7,270.6
7,637.7
6,596.9
6,717.1
6,811.2
6,920.3
6,992.3
7,096.8
7,175.1
7,220.6
7,298.3
7,388.5
7,475.3
7,610.5
7,669.1
7,796.1
7,919.2
8,013.6
8,103.5
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993: HI
IV
1994- I
II
Ill
IV
1995: I
II
III
IV
1996: I
II
in ..
IV
1997: I . . . .
II
III'
Gross
domestic
product
Personal
eonsumption
expenditures
6,062.0
6.136.3
6,079.4
6.244.4
6,389.6
6,610.7
6,742.1
6,928.4
6,393.5
6,476.9
65245
6,600.3
6.629.5
6,688.6
6,703.7
6.708.8
6,759.2
6,796.5
6,826.4
6,926.0
6,943.8
7,017.4
7,101.6
7,159.6
7,214.0
Gross private
domestic investment
Nonresidential
fixed
investment
4,064.6
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,343.6
4,486.0
4.595.3
4,714.1
4,366.6
4,398.0
4,439.4
4,472.2
4,498.2
4,534.1
4,551.3
4,583.5
4,612.9
4,633.5
4,669.4
4,712.2
4,718.2
4,756.4
4,818.1
4,829.4
4,896.2
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
600.2
648.4
706.5
771.7
602.3
625.6
626.2
641.2
653.2
672.9
695.7
705.4
708.2
716.8
736.9
759.7
789.3
800.8
808.9
837.0
874.5
Residential
fixed
investment
Change
in business
inventories
33.3
10.4
-30
7.0
22 1
60.6
27.3
25.0
15.3
24.2
53.1
75.9
49.7
63.6
48.5
21.6
17.0
22.2
8.0
21.3
37.9
32.9
63.7
77.6
47.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.6
267.0
257.0
272.1
242.2
255.1
261.3
271.5
269.4
265.9
261.2
250.4
255.5
260.8
266.1
277.2
274.1
271.1
273.3
278.2
280.1
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Net
exports
-82.7
61 9
— 22 3
— '95
-70.2
104 6
-98.8
-114.4
-83.1
-80.5
-97.6
- 103.9
-111.1
-105.9
-113.5
-112.8
-92.9
-76.1
- 100.8
-112.6
- 138.9
-105.6
- 126.3
-136.6
-164.1
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
520.2
564.4
599.9
639.4
658.2
712.4
791.2
857.0
646.3
679.1
676.0
704.1
722.1
747.3
760.4
777.4
802.4
824.6
828.2
847.4
851.4
901.1
922.7
962.5
973.0
603.0
626.3
6222
669.0
728.4
817.0
890.1
971.5
729.4
759.7
773.6
808.0
833.2
853.2
873.9
890.3
895.4
900.7
929.0
960.0
990.2
1,006.6
1,048.9
1,099.1
1,137.1
1
GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dotlar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
1,213.9
1,250.4
1,258.0
1,263.8
1,252.1
1,252.3
1,251.9
1,257.9
1,250.5
1,254.7
1,241.9
1,243.3
1,268.1
1,255.8
1,257.7
1,257.3
1,255.0
1,237.7
1,243.2
1,265.1
1,261.5
1,261.8
1,260.5
1,270.1
1,273.4
National
defense
531.5
541.9
539.4
528.0
505.7
486.6
470.3
464.2
501.5
501.3
487.2
481.2
496.4
481.7
480.4
474.9
473.4
452.6
460.9
470.7
465.7
459.6
452.8
460.1
458.8
401.6
401.5
397.5
375.8
354.4
336.9
322.6
317.8
351.1
350.8
335.1
335.9
347.0
329.6
328.7
327.4
324.0
310.3
314.9
323.2
319.4
313.6
303.9
309.4
310.3
State
and
local
Nondefense
130.1
140.5
142.0
152.2
151.2
149.5
147.5
146.1
150.3
150.4
151.9
145.1
149.4
151.7
151.4
147.3
149.1
142.1
145.7
147.2
146.0
145.7
148.5
150.2
148.0
682.6
708.6
718.7
735.8
746.4
765.7
781.6
793.7
749.1
753.4
754.7
762.2
771.7
774.1
777.3
782.3
781.5
785.1
782.4
794.4
795.9
802.3
807.7
810.1
814.7
Final
sales of
domestic
product
Gross
domestic
purchases J
Addendum:
Gross
national
product
6,028.7
6,126.7
6,082.6
6,237.4
6,368.9
6,551.2
6,712.7
6,901.0
6,379.3
6,453.8
6,473.0
6,526.7
6,580.4
6,624.8
6,654.3
6,685.3
6,739.3
6,771.9
6,815.0
6,902.3
6,905.0
6,981.7
7,034.1
7,077.7
7,160.3
6,147.8
6,199.8
6,101.6
6,274.0
6,459.0
6,712.7
6,837.5
7,037.7
6,475.6
6,556.2
6 6202
6,701.8
6,737.5
6,791.3
6,813.2
6,817.3
6,848.9
6,870.4
6,923.2
7,033.6
7,075.3
7,118.4
7,220.9
7,286.9
7,364.6
6,075.7
6.157.C
6,094.9
6,255.5
6,408.0
6,619.1
6,748.7
6.932.0
6,415.3
6,489.7
6,540.5
6,609.3
6,635.6
6,691.2
6,711.3
6,721.0
6,758.3
6,804.2
6,834.7
6,930.1
6,940.2
7,023.1
7,091.8
7,144.4
7,198.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
[Index numbers, 1992—100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross private
domestic investment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993: III
IV
1994: I
II .
Ill
IV
1995: I
II
in
IV
1996: I
II
III .
IV
1997: I
II
IH'
Gross
domestic
product
89.72
93.60
97.32
100.00
102.64
105.09
107.76
110.21
102.83
103.51
104.13
104.71
105.39
106.09
106.94
107.46
108.02
108.61
109.39
109.84
110.54
111.05
111.71
112.22
112,62
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
88.44
92.91
96.82
100.00
102.66
105.15
107.89
110.47
102.79
103.57
95.29
96.59
98.54
100.00
101.22
103.27
104.27
103.83
101.37
102.02
103.99
104.66
105.61
106.31
107.04
107.66
108.19
108.64
109.35
110.12
110.79
111.60
112.20
112.48
112.89
102.28
102.99
103.84
103.94
104.31
104.34
104.28
104.17
104.34
103.88
103.69
103.41
103.24
102.46
101.71
89.28
94.62
98.06
100.00
101.46
102.77
104.48
107.15
101.26
101.93
101.89
102.20
103.32
103.65
103.85
104.31
104.70
105.05
106.02
107.03
107.28
108.25
108.89
108.88
109.23
Total
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Services
86.55
91.22
95.78
100.00
103.62
106.85
110.53
113.76
103.93
104.79
105.50
106.35
107.24
108.27
109.37
110.22
110.94
111.57
112.26
113.19
114.28
115.25
116.01
116.69
117.41
Nonresident) al
fixed
Residential fixed
96.16
98.41
99.92
100.00
100.65
101.89
102.33
101.26
100.69
100.81
101.35
101.83
102.19
102.17
102.18
102.43
102.43
102.28
101.87
101.26
101.18
100.80
100.29
99.91
99.71
95.08
97.80
98.85
100.00
103.71
107.11
110.93
113.64
104.23
104.60
105.77
106.35
107.46
108.84
110.19
110.65
111.13
111.74
112.29
112.80
114.36
115.10
115.68
116.65
117.56
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Exports
Imports
Total
97.91
98.74
100.31
100.00
100.07
101.23
103.44
101.61
100.08
100.04
97.81
100.37
100.02
100.00
98.75
99.39
101.62
99.40
98.56
98.21
100.36
100.84
101.45
102.19
103.18
103.89
103.63
103.06
102.66
102.07
101.44
110.39
99.95
99.77
99.26
97.61
98.75
100.33
100.71
101.02
102.56
101.86
101.02
100.46
99.87
98.73
98.66
97.34
95.44
94.73
89.79
92.93
96.88
100.00
102.50
104.85
108.34
112.02
102.85
103.43
104.03
105.01
104.83
105.53
106.91
107.63
108.34
110.60
112.04
111.46
111.99
112.62
113.98
114.34
114.58
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
89.79
92.93
96.47
100.00
101.76
103.64
106.83
111.02
101.98
102.44
89.70
92.84
97.94
100.00
104.29
107.70
111.88
114.47
104.93
105.81
106.68
108.04
107.56
108.53
110.49
110.66
111.05
115.49
115.34
113.66
114.23
114.66
116.39
116.82
117.24
90.52
94.91
97.86
100.00
102.49
104.85
108.24
111.71
102.74
103.13
103.89
104.37
105.20
105.89
106.92
107.99
108.67
109.35
110.93
111.07
112.07
112.76
113.52
113.94
114.43
102.91
103.73
103.68
104.26
105.37
106.35
107.20
108.47
110.64
110.56
111.07
111.80
112.99
113.31
113.47
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES:
INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES
[Quarterly data are seasonally ac^usled)
Percent change from preceding period >
Index numbers, 1992=100
Real GDP
(chain-type
quantity
index)
GDP
(current
dollars)
Period
1983
1984
..
m
IV
1994. I
II
in
IV
1995- I
H
Ill
. ...
rv
1996- I
JI
III
rv
1997. i
n
m'
. ..
73.16
75.92
78.53
80.58
83.06
86.10
89.72
93.64
97.32
100.00
102.64
105.09
107.76
110.22
101.85
102.38
102.83
103.52
104.16
104.74
105.39
106.07
106.93
107.49
108.03
108.60
109.35
109.86
110.59
111.10
111.78
112.27
112.67
76.93
82.32
85.25
87.88
90.47
93.93
97.08
98.27
97.36
100.00
102.32
105.87
107.97
110.95
101.34
101.85
102.39
103.72
104.49
105.70
106.17
107.11
107.36
107.44
108.24
108.84
109.32
110.92
111.20
112.38
113.73
114.66
115.53
56.28
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993. I
II
GDP
chain-type
price index
62.49
66.95
70.82
75.14
80.87
87.10
91.98
94.75
100.00
105.02
111.25
116.35
122.29
103.20
104.24
105.29
107.36
108.81
110.68
111.88
113.63
114.80
115.45
116.92
118.22
119.59
121.83
122.93
124.80
127.05
128.66
130.10
1
Percent changes based on indexes to 3 decimal places. Quarterly percent changes are at
annual rates.
GDP
Real GDP
(chain-type
quantity
index)
GDP
implicit
price
deflator
(current
dollars)
73.16
75.92
78.53
80.58
83.06
86.09
89.72
93.60
97.32
100.00
102.64
105.09
107.76
110.21
101.84
102.35
102.83
103.51
104.13
104.71
105.39
106.09
106.94
107.46
108.02
108.61
109.39
109.84
110.54
111.05
111.71
112.22
112.62
8.4
11.0
7.1
5.8
6.1
7.6
7.7
5.6
3.0
5.5
5.0
5.9
4.6
5.1
3.9
4.1
4.1
8.1
5.5
7.1
4.4
6.4
4.2
2.3
5.2
4.5
4.7
7.7
3.6
6.2
7.4
5.2
4.6
GDP
GDP
chain-type
price
index
implicit
price
deflator
4.0
7.0
3.6
3.1
2.9
3.8
3.4
1.2
-.9
2.7
2.3
3.5
2.0
2.8
.1
2.0
2.1
5.3
3.0
4.7
1.8
3.6
.9
.3
3.0
2.2
1.8
6.0
1.0
4.3
4.9
3.3
3.1
4.3
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.4
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.3
3.9
2.1
1.8
2.7
2.5
22
5L5
2.6
3.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.8
1.9
2.7
1.9
2.4
1.8
1.4
4.3
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.3
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.3
3.9
2.0
1.9
2.7
2.4
2.2
2.6
2.7
3.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.9
1.7
2.6
1.9
2.4
1.8
1.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993- III
IV
1994- I
II
III
IV
1995- I
II
. ..
m
rv
1996- I
II
Ill
rv
1997- I
II
ffl'
. .
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
2,950.9
3,084.0
3,132.1
3,262.6
3,430.4
3,709.7
3,905.3
4,132.4
3.444.3
3,525.2
3,624.5
3,668.9
3,729.1
3,816.4
3,833.6
3,860.4
3,940.4
3,986.8
4,030.7
4,112.9
4,165.8
4,220.1
4,299.7
4,361.1
4,446.3
3,179.8
3,210.2
3,168.8
3,262.6
3,374.4
3,586.3
3,719.7
3,887.8 .
3,387.2
3,447.7
3,526.1
3,559.8
3,594.6
3,664.9
3,664.9
3,683.2
3,747.7
3,782.9
3,801.8
3,872.4
3,913.7
3,963.5
4,022.2
4,068.9
4,146.5
'Output is measured by GDP of nonfinaneiai corporate business in chained (1992) dollars.
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinaneiai corporate business
with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
2
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of rea! output (dollars) 1
Gross domestic product
of nonfinaneiai
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Total
cost and
profit2
0.928
.961
.988
1.000
1.017
1.034
1.050
1.063
1.017
1.022
1.028
1.031
1.037
1.041
1.046
1.048
1.051
1.054
1.060
1.062
1.064
1.065
1.069
1.072
1.072
3
4
Consumption of
fixed
capital
0.094
.096
.101
.101
.101
.101
.100
.101
.102
.100
.106
.099
.099
.098
.099
.101
.100
.101
.101
.101
.101
.101
.101
.101
.100
Indirect
business
tax, etc.3
0.088
.092
.100
.103
.106
.108
.107
.108
.106
.108
.108
.108
.109
.108
.108
.108
.107
.107
.109
.109
.108
.108
.107
.107
.107
Compensation
of employees
0.613
.640
.660
.673
.679
.677
.687
.690
.679
.675
.673
.677
.679
.678
.687
.689
.685
.686
.687
.689
.691
.693
.697
.698
.695
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Total
0.087
.086
.085
.091
.103
.122
.128
.140
.102
.113
.115
.120
.124
.129
.123
.122
.132
.133
.138
.140
.141
.142
.143
.144
.149
Profits
tax
liability
0.031
.030
.027
.028
.031
.036
.037
.040
.030
.035
.034
.035
.036
.038
.038
.037
.037
.037
.039
.040
.040
.040
.040
.040
.042
Profits
after
tax*
0.056
.056
.058
.063
.072
.086
.090
.101
.072
.078
.081
.085
.087
.090
.084
.086
.094
.096
.099
.100
.101
.102
.103
.104
.107
Net
interest
0.046
.046
.042
.032
.028
.027
.027
.023
.027
.027
.026
.026
.027
.028
.029
.028
.027
.026
.025
.024
.022
.021
.021
.021
.021
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
^^ r^pa^em of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NATIONAL INCOME
{Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
National
income
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995 .
1996
1993: III
4,652.1
4,761.6
4,990.4
5,266.8
5,590.7
5,912.3
6,254.5
5,281.7
5,388.7
5,423.2
5,556.3
5,636.1
5,747.3
5,807.9
5,862.4
5,953.4
6,025.5
6,108.8
6,229.4
6,303.3
6,376.5
6,510.0
6,599.0
6,699.6
rv
1994: I
II
Ill
rv
1995: I
II
III
rv
1996: I ...
II
Ill
rv
1997: I
II
IIIr
1
Compensation
of
employees'
Proprietors' income
with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Farm
35.4
29.3
37.1
32.4
36.9
23.4
37.2
25.6
38.0
46.4
38.8
33.2
29.1
20.6
21.3
22.9
28.9
31.9
36.5
40.1
40.4
40.2
43.6
40.9
3,352.8
3,457.9
3,644.9
3,814.9
4,012.0
4,215.4
4,426.9
3,837.6
3,876.2
3,937.4
3,988.0
4,028.7
4,093.9
4,153.2
4,187.9
4,238.0
4,282.6
4,322.2
4,403.9
4,461.0
4,520.7
4,606.3
4,663.4
4,725.2
Nonfarm
338.6
347.2
386.7
418.4
434.7
465.5
483.1
420.6
426.5
417.5
435.9
438.4
447.0
457.6
463.1
468.7
472.6
477.4
483.5
483.7
487.9
494.4
500.0
506.3
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
Rental
income
of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
61.0
67.9
79.4
105.7
124.4
132.8
146.3
106.1
111.5
112.7
126.0
130.1
128.9
130.5
132.3
131.5
137.1
143.4
144.6
148.0
149.2
149.0
148.7
148.0
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total
397.1
411.3
428.0
492.8
570.5
650.0
735.9
492.8
541.2
512.0
562.0
590.1
617.7
613.2
628.0
672.8
685.7
717.7
738.5
739.6
747.8
779.6
795.1
827.3
Profits
before tax
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
371.7
374.2
406.4
465.4
535.1
622.6
676.6
459.6
508.9
475.1
525.3
556.2
583.9
610.7
615.0
630.6
634.1
664.9
682.2
679.1
680.0
708.4
719.8
753.4
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-8.5
-16.1
-24.3
-2.5
2
-4.8
4.3
-15.1
-21.2
-23.6
-50.3
-37.8
-9.3
.4
-5.1
-5.4
-2.7
3.3
3.5
5.9
3.6
358.2
378.2
398.9
456.9
519.1
598.4
674.1
459.8
504.1
470.8
510.2
535.0
560.3
560.4
577.2
621.4
634.5
659.8
676.8
676.4
683.4
711.9
725.7
757.1
Capital
consumption
adjustment
38.9
33.1
29.1
36.0
51.4
51.6
61.8
33.0
37.1
41.2
51.8
55.1
57.4
52.9
50.8
51.5
51.1
57.9
61.6
63.2
64.4
67.7
69.4
70.3
Net
interest
467.3
448.0
414.3
402.5
412.3
425.1
425.1
398.9
395.4
397.2
405.6
415.6
430.7
432.7
429.7
419.5
418.6
416.2
422.5
430.9
430.6
440.5
448.1
451.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Period
1990
1991 .. .
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 ...
1993: III
rv
1994- I
II
III
rv
1995- I
II
Ill
rv
1996: I . .
II
Ill
rv
1997: I . .
II
Ill'
1
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,343.6
4,486.0
4,595.3
4,714.1
4,366.6
4,398.0
4,439.4
4,472.2
4,498.2
4,534.1
4,551.3
4,583.5
4,612.9
4,633.5
4,669.4
4,712.2
4,718.2
4,756.4
4,818.1
4,829.4
4,896.2
Total
durable
goods
493.3
462.0
488.5
523.8
561.2
583.6
611.1
529.9
542.1
550.7
555.8
561.7
576.6
572.2
577.7
590.8
593.7
600.7
614.8
611.9
617.1
637.8
629.0
656.1
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
224.3
193.2
206.9
218.9
230.0
229.5
231.3
219.8
228.4
231.6
228.4
227.3
232.6
226 2
227^5
232.9
231.6
233.4
234.2
229.7
228.0
233.4
223.1
238.7
Furniture
and
household
equipment
Other
173.5
177.0
189.4
207.8
229.4
248.4
269.5
210.9
214.8
219.1
226.1
232.2
240.3
241.4
244.6
251.5
256.2
259.2
269.9
272.3
276.8
287.4
292.3
301.1
96.6
91.8
92.3
97.2
102.3
107.2
113.3
99.3
99.0
100.0
101.6
102.9
104.5
105.9
107.0
107.9
107.9
110.2
113.4
113.2
116.3
121.4
119.7
121.7
Total
nondurable
goods
1,316.1
1,302.9
1,321.8
1,351.0
1,389.9
1,412.6
1,432.3
1,356.8
1,361.8
1,378.4
1,385.5
1,393.2
1,402.5
1,408.4
1,411.6
1,413.9
1,416.3
1,422.5
1,431.6
1,433.9
1,441.2
1,457.8
1,450.0
1,465.5
Includes other items, not shown separately.
XOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Food
662.9
659.6
660.0
675.3
687.9
690.5
689.7
677.9
679.2
684.3
689.8
687.9
689.5
690.8
690.2
690.6
690.6
692.4
690.3
687.3
689.0
694.6
688.2
689.5
Clothing
and
shoes
Gasoline
and oil
217.9
215.9
225.5
234.2
247.1
257.5
267.7
235.9
238.6
243.1
242.7
248.1
254.7
255.3
257.0
259.1
258.7
261.6
268.4
270.8
270.0
277.1
273.8
281.3
107.3
103.4
106.6
108.7
109.8
113.1
114.1
109.8
109.0
109.2
109.6
109.9
110.7
112.7
113.2
113.0
113.6
112.9
114.5
114.1
114.8
114.7
116.1
116.2
Services
Fuel
oil
and
coal
Other
Total
services1
Housing
Medical
care
11.2
10.8
10.9
10.7
10.7
10.5
10.6
10.9
10.9
11.9
10.2
10.7
10.2
10.0
10.6
10.4
11.1
11.1
10.4
10.6
10.3
9.4
10.1
10.4
316.7 2,321.3
313.2 2,341.0
318.8 2.409.4
322.1 2,468.9
334.3 2,535.5
341.3 2,599.6
351.2 2,671.0
322.3 2,480.0
324.0 2,494.4
329.9 2,510.9
333.0 2,531.4
336.7 2,543.8
337.8 2,555.9
339.9 2,571.2
341.0 2,594.5
341.5 2,608.7
342.9 2,623.8
345.1 2,646.5
349.1 2,666.5
352.5 2,672.8
358.3 2,698.2
363.7 2,723.9
363.4 2,749.8
370.0 2,776.1
627.2
635.2
646.8
654.7
674.3
688.2
700.2
655.8
660.0
666.8
672.2
677.0
681.1
683.7
686.7
689.7
692.8
695.6
698.7
701.7
704.8
708.3
712.0
715.6
602.8
621.6
646.6
655.3
662.1
674.9
688.1
656.4
656.7
658.1
661.1
663.2
666.0
669.5
672.9
677.0
680.4
679.4
686.2
689.8
697.1
704.4
708.8
714.2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Retail sales
of new passenger cars
and light
trucks
(millions of
units)
13.9
12.3
12.8
13.9
15.0
14.7
15.0
13.8
14.6
14.9
14.9
14.9
15.3
14.7
14.4
14.9
15.0
15.0
15.1
15.1
14.9
15.3
14.5
15.3
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $53.6 billion (annual rate) in November, following an increase of $38.9 billion in October.
Wages and salaries increased $43.1 billion in November, following an increase of $27.6 billion in October.
BIHIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
8,000
8,000
7,000
7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
A"
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
2,000
2,000
OTHER INCOME
1,400
1,400
-V
800
800
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
•u-ri-r4n"Ti'i
1989
I I I I I I II I I I
1990
1991
1993
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
COUNOt OF KONOMK ADVBB1S
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total
personal
income
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Xov
Dec
1997- Jan
. ...
.
Feb
Mar
Anr
Jlay
Ju]yr
Sepf
Ocf
Xov
..
4.184.6
4,501.0
4,804.2
4,981.6
5,277.2
5,519.2
5,791.8
6,150.8
6,495.2
6,615.2
6,664.4
6,700.1
6,750.3
6,788.2
6,800.9
6,822.8
6,863.5
6,873.1
6,912.2
6,935.5
6,974.4
7,028.0
Wage and
salary
disbursements1
2,453.6
2,598.1
2,757.5
2,827.6
2,986.4
3,089.6
3,240.7
3,429.5
3,632.5
3,713.4
3,753.7
3,754.1
3,799.1
3,821.3
3,822.1
3,835.1
3,867.6
3,870.0
3,902.3
3,916.1
3,943.7
3,986.8
Proprietors' income3
Other labor
income: 2
251.7
273.1
300.6
322.7
351.3
385.1
405.0
406.8
407.6
408.7
411.4
410.5
412.5
413.9
414.4
415.3
415.6
416.6
417.6
418.9
420.1
421.4
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and
the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
Farm
27.5
36.3
35.4
29.3
37.1
32.4
36.9
23.4
37.2
40.5
39.9
39.4
39.9
41.4
43.0
43.8
44.0
43.0
40.8
39.0
39.8
40.6
3
Xonfarm
307.8
321.1
338.6
347.2
386.7
418.4
434.7
465.5
483.1
487.9
490.0
492.8
494.6
495.8
497.9
499.8
502.4
503.9
505.3
509.6
514.4
518.1
Rental
income
of
persons *
55.1
51.7
61.0
67.9
79.4
105.7
124.4
132.8
146.3
149.2
149.1
148.5
149.3
149.2
149.3
148.9
147.8
147.4
148.5
148.2
147.8
147.5
Persona!
dividend
income
109.9
130.9
142.9
153.6
159.4
185.3
204.8
251.9
291.2
295.0
296.9
310.7
312.5
314.4
316.3
318.3
320.3
322.4
324.5
326.6
328.6
330.7
Personal
interest
income
595.5
674.5
704.4
699,2
667.2
651.0
668.1
718.9
735.7
749.8
751.8
754.3
757.0
760.4
763.4
766.0
768.9
771.0
772.5
774.3
776.9
780.1
Transfer
payments 5
577.6
626.0
687.8
769.9
858.2
912.0
954.7
1,015.0
1,068.0
1,081.8
1,085.5
1,105.5
1,104.1
1,111.9
1,114.6
1,116.6
1,119.7
1,122.1
1,125.9
1,129.0
1,131.0
1,133.6
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
4
5
Less: Personal contributions
for social
insurance
194.2
210.8
223.9
235.8
248.4
260.3
277.5
293.1
306.3
311.3
313.8
315.8
318.7
320.1
320.1
320.9
323.0
323.1
325.2
326.1
327.9
330.8
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income In chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual
rate of 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 1997.
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCA1E)
2,000
I I i
24,000
22,000
i i i I i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i i i
i
24,000
22,000
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
ED (1992) DOLLAR
20,000
\
18,000
---'
^>
U,000
.^
____,
.— —
16,000
pr-
1s^^~
'•
'
— ~*
•^"_ —
16,000
'T
RRENTDI
^\
14,000
,^— '
12,000
20,000
18,000
12,000
^
10,000
. —— ^
I I I
1982
1983
1984
i iI
i i I
\
1985
1986
1987
\
\
\
1
1
1988
I I I
1
1989
1990
1
1
10,000
i i i
111
I 1 1
i i i
i i i
i i i
I i i
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
COUNCB. OF ECONOMIC ADVSBtS
Period
Personal
income
Ijess:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
Ijess:
Personal
outlay1
Equals:
Personal
saving
Disposable
personal
income in
billions of
chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita
disposable personal
ineoine
Current
dollars
Billions of dollars
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
4,804.2
4,981.6
5,277.2
5,519.2
5,791.8
6,150.8
6,495.2
624.8
624.8
650.5
690.0
739.1
795.1
886.9
4,179.4
4,356.8
4,626.7
4,829.2
5,052.7
5,355.7
5,608.3
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Dollars
3,958.1
4,097.4
4,341.0
4,580.7
4,842.1
5,101.1
5,368.8
221.3
259.5
285.6
248.5
210.6
254.6
239.6
4,498.2
4,500.0
4,626.7
4,703.9
4,805.1
4,964.2
5,076.9
16,721
17,242
18,113
18,706
19,381
20,349
21,117
Percent
change
in real
per capita
disposable
personal
income
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
overseas
(thousands) 2
Percent
17,996
17,809
18,113
18,221
18,431
18.861
19,116
15,360
15,732
16,520
17,273
18,093
18,837
19,608
16,532
16,249
16,520
16,825
17,207
17,460
17,750
0.8
-1.0
1.7
.6
1.2
2.3
1.4
5.3
6.0
6.2
5.1
4.2
4.8
4.3
249,956
252,680
255,432
258,161
260,705
263,194
265,579
18,246
18,413
18,154
18,409
18,493
18,667
18,834
18,798
18,871
18,942
19,071
19,081
19,161
19,152
19,331
19,439
19,518
17,363
17,574
17,774
17,978
18,199
18,419
18,578
18,774
18,938
19,055
19,291
19,562
19,660
19,919
20,247
20,303
20,612
16,891
16,968
17,092
17,178
17,232
17,326
17,356
17,438
17,505
17,540
17,642
17,765
17,745
17,848
18,046
18,051
18,258
-0.0
3.7
-5.5
5.7
1.8
3.8
3.6
-.8
1.6
1.5
2.8
.2
1.7
-.2
3.8
2.3
1.6
4.9
5.4
3.4
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.3
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.1
4.5
3.9
3.7
4.2
3.5
258,516
259,191
259,738
260,351
261,040
261,692
262,235
262,847
263,527
264,169
264,680
265,258
265,887
266,491
266,987
267,545
268,171
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1993: IH
IV
1994- I
II
Ill
IV
1995- I
II
Ill
IV
1996: I
II
III
IV
1997: I
n
Ill'
1
5,544.2
5,659.1
5,516.3
5,766.6
5,838.1
5,946.1
6,053.1
6,114.8
6,179.1
6,256.2
6,359.4
6,461.3
6,541.9
6,618.4
6,746.2
6,829.1
6,906.9
695.5
716.4
712.9
750.5
739.9
753.0
766.5
795.1
798.9
820.0
840.0
887.8
897.3
922.6
955.7
979.2
998.0
4,848.7
4,942.8
4,903.4
5,016.1
5,098.2
5,193.1
5,286.6
5,319.6
5,380.2
5,436.2
5,519.4
5,573.5
5,644.6
5,695.8
5,790.5
5,849.9
5,908.9
4,609.8
4,675.2
4,738.2
4,803.3
4,876.1
4,950.7
5,007.3
5,074.3
5,136.4
5,186.3
5,261.3
5,347.8
5,390.6
5,475.4
5,574.6
5,602.8
5,700.8
239.0
267.6
165.2
212.8
222.1
242.4
279.2
245.4
243.8
249.9
258.1
225.7
254.0
220.4
215.9
247.0
208.2
Includes personal consumption exj>enditiircs, interest paid by jxirsons, and personal transfer
payments to rest of the world (net).
2
Annual date are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
4,716.9
4,772.5
4,715.3
4,792.8
4,827.3
4,884.9
4,938.9
4,940.9
4,973.0
5,003.9
5,047.6
5,061.3
5,094.8
5,103.8
5,161.1
5,200.9
5,234.1
18,756
19,070
18,878
19,267
19,530
19,844
20,160
20,239
20,416
20,579
20,853
21,012
21,229
21,373
21,689
21,865
22,034
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the first quarter of 1997, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $17.4 billion (annual rate)
and net farm income rose $19.9 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
240
200
280
240
200
160
160
' GROSS FARM INCOME
120
120
80
60
60
40
40
V
NET FARM INCOME
20
20
10
10
1989
1990
1992
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of AGRICULTURE
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from fanning
Gross farm income
Period
Cash marketing receipts
Total i
Tota!
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 ...
1995
1996
1995- I
II
III
IV
1996- I
II
Ill
IV
1997- IP
.
..
. ...
. ..
168.4
177.9
191.9
198.1
191.9
200.5
203.6
215.7
210.9
233.5
208.7
206.8
219.2
209.0
239.4
238.8
230.8
225.0
242.4
141.8
151.2
160.8
169.5
167.9
171.4
177.7
181.2
187.7
202.3
182.5
183.0
201.9
183.4
203.7
206.0
206.3
193.3
207.4
1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during1 the year.
Livestock and
products
76.0
79.6
83.9
89.2
85.8
85.6
90.2
88.2
87.0
92.9
83.4
81.8
96.3
86.6
90.1
90.6
96.7
94.2
92.5
Crops
65.8
71.6
76.9
80.3
82.1
85.7
87.5
93.1
100.7
109.4
99.2
101.2
105.6
96.8
113.6
115.4
109.6
99.1
114.9
Value of
inventory
changes 2
-2.3
-4.1
3.8
3.3
_ 2
4.2
-4.5
8.2
-3.9
2.7
-4.8
-4.5
-3.5
-2.8
3.3
3.1
2.5
2.0
1.3
Production
expenses
131.0
139.9
146.7
153.3
153.3
152.9
160.5
167.5
174.2
181.3
171.0
174.0
176.1
175.6
177.6
182.1
182.4
183.1
180.7
Xet farm
income
37.4
38.0
45.3
44.8
38.6
47.5
43.1
48.3
36.7
52.2
37.7
32.8
43.1
33.4
61.9
56.6
48.4
41.9
61.8
XoTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.
Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to
annual data in table.
Sources; Department of Agriculture,
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $33.6 billion (annual
rate) and profits after tax rose $19.9 billion.
BIWONS OF DOUARS
BIUJONS OF DOUARS
800
800
SEASONA1LY AOUSTH) «**JAL RATCS
y-
750
-
700
/
650
750
700
'
650
600
600
/
550
PROFITS BEFORE TAX
-
y
350
s-r\
/~-
r^
V
s
x>
300
/
s
/—\.
250
.
^
200
^y
y
/
""—•—._
.''-
f_
v _, .— ^
--•
\
t i i
1982
i i i
1983
f
i i i
i i i
1984
1985
*~ ~~
\
s'~"~ I.-'-"
^'^"•- .-^'
'
t.--
s
'>
,
N
1986
..«*•""''
i i i
i i i
1
1987
1988
1989
1
1
<*'
f./
\.'
•
..-
,. t
\
UNDIS1RBUTED PROFTrS-
(
t
V4.J-1-'
f"\ f
TAX UABIUTY
j-''*
*
,
PROf TTSAFTEI(TAX
k\
"**""^l
~— — —
^
^
J
0
^^
/\ f f
\Xf
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
-
'
\
400
50
500
y
S/
J
450
100
550
J
500
150
^
50
i i i
i i i
i i i
i l i
1 1 1
i i i
i i i
1 1 1
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
SOURCE DBWnM&ff OF COMMERCE
0
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVBBG
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment *
Profits after tax
Domestic industries
Period
Nonfinancial
Total*
Total
1989
1990 .
1991
1992 ..
. .
1993
1994 . .
1995
1996
330.6
358.2
378.2
398.9
456.9
519.1
598.4
674.1
272.6
292.5
309.5
334.0
383.0
445.7
511.7
578.2
1993: in
IV
459.8
504.1
382.7
435.2
1994: I
II
470.8
510.2
535.0
560.3
398.9
437.9
460.7
485.2
560.4
577.2
621.4
634.5
476.9
486.8
540.9
542.1
1996- I
II
659.8
676.8
676.4
683.4
568.7
583.5
584.6
575.8
1997- I
II
HI'
711.9
725.7
757.1
614.5
624.9
657.2
m
IV
1995- I
II
in
IV
in
rv
1
2
3
Financial
53.1
68.6
87.4
83.7
82.9
69.4
97.6
103.5
79.4
91.0
44.1
72.3
81.3
80.0
89.5
96.3
107.1
97.4
110.4
111.5
104.0
88.1
116.5
117.5
119.4
Totals
219.6
223.8
222.1
250.3
300.1
376.3
414.1
474.7
303.3
344.2
354.7
365.6
379.5
405.3
387.3
390.4
433.8
444.7
458.3
472.0
480.7
487.8
498.0
507.4
537.8
Manufacturing
109.3
112.3
92.7
96.3
116.7
151.6
181.3
205.5
113.8
142.2
149.7
138.8
151.6
166.2
161.9
170.3
194.5
198.4
197.1
204.8
210.5
209.7
208.2
221.0
240.4
Sec p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation ami capital consumption Enlistments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Includes industries not shown separately.
Profits
before
tax
Wholesale
20.4
17.2
20.6
23.0
24.3
29.4
26.9
38.3
24.8
25.4
28.1
33.8
27.3
28.6
25.5
20.3
28.5
33.2
37.2
30.8
37.7
47.4
49.0
49.5
54.1
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
67.9
79.4
77.7
93.9
104.5
132.3
145.0
142.8
100.1
119.7
108.9
131.0
141.6
147.5
145.6
145.1
145.0
144.5
138.0
146.4
141.8
144.9
140.3
142.3
156.1
-17.5
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-8.5
-16.1
-24.3
-2.5
.2
-4.8
-4.3
-15.1
-21.2
-23.6
-50.3
-37.8
-9.3
.4
-5.1
-5.4
-2.7
3.3
3.5
5.9
3.6
Retail
20.7
20.6
26.1
32.2
38.9
46.0
41.9
48.9
41.4
42.7
41.6
47.4
47.2
47.8
41.0
42.3
42.2
42.1
46.0
50.6
50.6
48.3
55.1
54.9
57.9
348.1
371.7
374.2
406.4
465.4
535.1
622.6
676.6
459.6
508.9
475.1
525.3
556.2
583.9
610.7
615.0
630.6
634.1
664.9
682.2
679.1
680.0
708.4
719.8
753.4
141.3
140.5
133.4
143.0
165.2
186.6
213.2
229.0
161.2
184.9
163.0
182.8
194.6
206.2
209.6
209.1
218.8
215.3
226.2
232.2
231.6
226.0
241.2
244.5
258.2
206.8
231.2
240.8
263.4
300.2
348.5
409.4
447.6
298.4
324.0
312.1
342.5
361.6
377.7
401.0
405.9
411.8
418.8
438.7
450.0
447.5
454.0
467.2
475.3
495.2
138.9
151.9
163.1
169.5
195.8
216.2
264.4
304.8
198.3
204.2
203.2
211.6
220.0
230.2
255.5
260.8
266.8
274.4
300.7
303.7
305.7
309.1
326.8
333.0
339.1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
In the third quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)
dollars rose $37.5 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $1.9 billion. There was an increase of $47.5
billion in inventories, following an increase of $77.6 billion in the second quarter.
BltilONS Of CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS
BILLIONS Of CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS
1,300
1,300
SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1,200
/
1,100
1,000
900
/^
800
'
,-J
1
'
\
GSOSSPRIVA1'EDOME STIC
INVEST WENT
I
700
y
600
1,000
900
7
p/1
s
800
s
700
s
S
..
600
'
500
NONRES IDENT1AL
1XEDIN\^STMEN1 '
s
^^-.
1,200
/
r
^S~
/
^
500
\
J
:
RlESIDENTI>\L
RXEI) INVESTA^ENT
400
400
\J
\
300
200
~
•" ..—
~..^
300
-•-•-'
200
*'
CHANG € IN BUS NESS
WTORIE
•-
100
/--s
/
,'N-- V
, \J
100
,-%N
+ -s
0
0
-100
1
1 1
1982
i i t
1 1 1
\ \ i
i i i
i i i
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
I ' '
i i i
i i i
i i <
1
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
I
1
1 1 j
j i 1
1993
1994
SOURCE: DBAKIMENT OF COMMERCE
1995
1 1 1
1
1996
1997
1 1
-100
COUNOL OF ECONCMtC AOWERS
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Fixed investment
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
. ..
..
1993- III
IV
1994- I
II
in
IV
1995- I
II
.
in
IV
1996- I
II
in
rv
1997- I
II
IH r
.
Producers'
durable
equipment
Residential
Structures
Total
Total
863.5
815.0
738.1
790.4
863.6
975.7
991.5
1,069.1
832.0
805.8
741.3
783.4
842.8
915.5
962.1
1,041.7
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
600.2
648.4
706.5
771.7
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
170.8
172.5
179.9
188.7
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
429.6
476.8
528.3
586.0
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.6
267.0
257.0
272.1
858.6
904.0
844.5
880.8
602.3
625.6
939.9
987.8
972.2
1,003.0
887.8
913.2
922.7
938.5
626.2
641.2
653.2
672.9
430.7
452.9
460.6
467.3
480.0
499.1
1,005.8
977.5
982.0
1,000.8
955.8
954.0
962.3
976.3
695.7
705.4
708.2
716.8
171.7
173.1
166.3
174.5
174.0
175.0
179.0
180.9
181.2
178.6
1,012.2
1,059.2
1,100.3
1,104.8
1,001.5
1,035.7
1,060.9
1,068.7
736.9
759.7
789.3
800.8
1,149.2
1,197.1
1,204.6
1,079.0
1,111.4
1,149.3
808.9
837.0
874.5
182.1
185.6
190.0
196.9
195.9
193.5
196.7
557.4
577.1
602.9
606.7
616.6
649.3
685.3
242.2
255.1
261.3
271.5
269.4
265.9
261.2
250.4
255.5
260.8
266.1
277.2
274.1
271.1
273.3
278.2
280.1
NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type.
llccause of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates
for the detailed components do not wld to the thai nod-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi-
Change in business
inventories
Nonresidential
518.1
525.9
528.5
540.5
ate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Total
33.3
10.4
-30
7.0
22.1
60.6
27.3
25.0
15.3
24.2
53.1
75.9
49.7
63.6
48.5
21.6
17.0
22.2
8.0
21.3
37.9
32.9
63.7
77.6
47.5
Nonfarm
33.5
7.8
-1.2
2.0
29.5
49.0
35.7
22.5
27.8
26.9
39.6
59.6
38.2
58.7
54.7
34.0
29.6
24,4
14.5
17.3
31.6
26.5
58.3
70.1
38.3
REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE
i Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Residential
Nonresidential
Producers' durable equipment
Structures
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993: IH
IV
1994: I
II
in
IV
1995- I
II
in
IV
1996:
I
II
in
IV
1997:
I
II
IE'
1
2
3
Total
nonresidential
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
600.2
648.4
706.5
771.7
602.3
625.6
626.2
641.2
653.2
672.9
6957
705.4
708.2
716.8
736.9
759.7
789.3
800.8
808.9
837.0
874.5
Total
1
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
170.8
172.5
179.9
188.7
171.7
173.1
166.3
174.5
174.0
175.0
1790
180.9
181.2
178.6
182.1
185.6
190.0
196.9
195.9
193.5
196.7
Structures
Information processing
and related equipment
Nonresidential
buildings,
including
farm
Utilities
150.2
152.0
126.9
113.2
115.3
119.9
128.8
140.0
117.1
118.5
114.3
123.1
120.6
121.8
1255
129.4
130.1
130.3
132.7
137.0
141.7
148.4
150.1
147.1
150.1
30.9
28.1
32.0
34.5
31.8
29.9
30.0
29.3
31.0
31.0
30.3
29.6
29.8
29.8
304
30.4
30.1
29.2
29.7
29.1
28.7
29.5
27.5
28.7
28.0
Mining
exploration,
shafts,
and
wells
Total'
13.9
16.1
15.7
13.3
16.0
15.8
14.3
13.9
16.4
16.2
15.1
15.1
16.2
16.7
163
14.2
13.8
13.1
13.6
13.9
14.1
13.8
13.6
13.0
13.4
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
429.6
476.8
528.3
586.0
430.7
452.9
460.6
467.3
480.0
499.1
5181
525.9
528.5
540.5
557.4
577.1
602.9
606.7
616.6
649.3
685.3
Total
Computers
and
peripheral
equipment2
Other
Industrial
equipment
116.2
116.2
117.8
134.2
147.9
165.1
201.8
253.1
152.5
155.5
158.1
160.8
166.1
175.6
1845
199.3
205.2
218.2
232.8
244.8
264.3
270.4
281.4
296.9
320.5
29.4
29.4
32.4
43.9
56.1
67.2
102.8
160.8
58.4
61.7
62.2
64.1
67.1
75.3
82.7
97.2
106.8
124.4
138.7
152.0
170.0
182.4
195.8
216.1
240.5
88.1
88.2
85.9
90.2
92.3
99.4
107.0
116.3
94.6
94.8
96.8
97.8
100.2
102.8
105.1
107.9
107.2
107.8
111.7
114.0
120.3
119.3
121.5
124.4
131.5
101.5
95.0
88.3
89.3
96.5
105.5
113.4
117.0
96.5
102.0
102.8
103.8
106.7
108.9
112.1
114.9
114.1
112.5
114.8
118.8
117.6
116.9
116.8
123.5
125.6
Includes other items, not shown separately.
Include*; new computers and peripheral equipment only.
Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately.
Transportation
and
related
equipment
78.9
81.2
81.7
86.2
98.3
113.2
118.9
125.0
94.8
105.2
108.8
110.0
113.5
120.5
124.0
117.3
115.7
118.6
119.2
121.8
129.5
129.7
127.5
136.0
146.8
Total
dential3
Total
Single
family
Multifamily
Other
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.6
267.0
257.0
272.1
242.2
255.1
261.3
271.5
269.4
265.9
261.2
250.4
255.5
260.8
266.1
277.2
274.1
271.1
273.3
278.2
280.1
237.0
214.5
187.6
219.5
236.2
260.3
250.0
265.0
235.7
248.6
254.8
264.8
262.7
259.0
254.3
243.6
248.5
253.8
259.1
270.0
266.9
263.9
265.9
270.8
272.6
121.9
110.4
96.4
116.5
127.1
140.1
126.9
136.6
126.8
134.3
1394
144.5
140.5
136.1
1314
123.1
124.3
128.9
133.1
138.6
138.3
136.2
136.2
136.5
135.7
23.3
19.7
15.4
13.1
10.6
13.6
16.9
18.6
11.0
10.7
11.4
13.0
14.7
15.5
16.4
16.3
17.2
17.7
18.9
20.2
17.5
18.0
19.6
20.4
19.6
91.8
84.4
75.7
89.9
98.6
106.5
106.7
110.2
97.9
103.5
103.8
107.2
107.6
107.6
1068
104.7
107.6
107.7
107.5
111.7
111.5
110.0
110.5
114.4
117.9
NOTB.—Beeatifte of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do -not add to the ehained-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS
[Billions of dollars]
By industry
Period
19931
19942
19953
1996 «
Total
expenditures
489.7
549.9
594.5
603.4
Total
488.2
547.8
591.7
600.7
Mining
and
construction
31.2
36.1
36.0
33.6
Manufacturing
Total
134.1
153.3
172.3
184.8
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
66.4
78.9
91.4
100.2
67.7
74.4
80.9
84.6
1
Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
Mteviscd estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Final data
are scheduled for release in summer 1996.
3
Revised estimates collected from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. Final data will
be available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
4
Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey.
10
Transportation
Communications
Utilities
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
30.6
33.3
37.0
35.2
37.1
41.5
46.0
46.3
41.3
60.3
42.2
42.8
40.6
68.9
75.1
71.9
Pinance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
40.2
46.8
57.3
57.7
Services
111.8
123.5
123.7
129.4
Serving
multiple
industries
Not
distributed
by
industry
1.7
2.2
1.5
1.3
1.4
2.2
2.8
2.7
NOTB.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996.
Data for 1993 from Annwd Capital Expenditure*: 1993,
The Business Investment and Hans release has been discontinued effective with release of
the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business investment and plans will be available
annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In November, employment rose by 671,000 and unemployment fell by 218,000.
MilUONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS Of PERSONS <
138
r—"
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
134
,t—*^*~-*~~*,
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
V—
130
126
3^:
!......•_
—
.i-v-w^"-'
^—-''
\
— - — —^._
114
130
^
r^"""^"
^. — •* —
^X""
126
^
.
122
«^^"
-
CIVILIAh
EMPLOYME NT
-
134
^.^~'
122
118
—
'
138
118
114
110
110
•v
y
12
'
UNEMPLOYME NT
—
.
8
__ ^^
>
'
12
/_
•
—.-
^-
"
4
0
1 1 1 1 1 iM 11
1989
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1990
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 11 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 11
1992
1991
1993
1995
1994
Mill
* 1 6 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Mill
1996
8
4
II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonaJJy adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Civilian employment
Period
1987
1988
1989 :i
1990
1991
1992
1993
19944
1995
1996
1996- Nov
Dec
1997- Jan 3
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Civilian
noninstitutional
population
NSA
182,753
184,613
186,393
189,164
190,925
192,805
194,838
196,814
198,584
200,591
201,463
201,636
202,285
202,388
202,513
202,674
202,832
203,000
203,166
203,364
203,570
203,767
203,941
Nonagricultural
Civilian
labor
force
Total
119,865
121,669
123,869
125,840
126,346
128,105
129,200
131,056
132,304
133,943
134,831
135,022
135,848
135,634
138,319
136,098
136,173
136,200
136,290
136,480
136,467
136,361
136,814
112,440
114,968
117,342
118,793
117,718
118,492
120,259
123,060
124,900
126,708
127,644
127,855
128,580
128,430
129,175
129,384
129,639
129,364
129,708
129,804
129,715
129,894
130,565
Agricultural
3,208
3,169
3,199
3,223
3,269
3,247
3,115
3,409
3,440
3,443
3,354
3,426
3,468
3,292
3,386
3,497
3,430
3,391
3,482
3,383
3,450
3,303
3,381
Total
109,232
111,800
114,142
115,570
114,449
115,245
117,144
119,651
121,460
123,264
124,290
124,429
125,112
125,138
125,789
125,887
126,209
125,973
126,226
126,421
126,265
126,591
127,184
Percent2
Unemployment
Part time
for
economic
reasons '
5,122
4,965
4,657
4,950
5,874
6,240
6,230
4,414
4,279
4,123
3,815
4,162
4,163
4,098
3,937
4,235
3,806
3,782
3,872
3,854
3,728
3,726
3,678
Total
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,187
7,167
7,268
7,205
7,144
6,714
6,534
6,836
6,583
6,677
6,752
6,467
6,249
15
weeks
and
over
1,983
1,610
1,375
1,525
2,357
3,408
3,094
2,860
2,363
2,316
2,184
2,179
2,155
2,163
2,064
2,092
2,071
2,063
2,157
2,012
2,127
1,983
1,840
Not in
labor
force
62,888
62,944
62,523
63,324
64,578
64,700
65,638
65,758
66,280
66,647
66,632
66,614
66,437
66,754
66,194
66,577
66,659
66,800
66,876
66,884
67,102
67,407
67,127
Labor
force
participation
rate
Employment/
population
ratio
Unemployment
rate
65.6
65.9
66.5
66.5
66.2
66.4
66.3
66.6
66.6
66.8
66.9
67.0
67.2
67.0
67.3
67.2
67.1
67.1
67.1
67.1
67.0
66.9
67.1
61.5
62.3
63.0
62.8
61.7
61.5
61.7
62.5
62.9
63.2
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.9
4.8
5.0
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.6
63.4
63.4
63.6
63.5
63.8
63.8
63.9
63.7
63.8
63.8
63.7
63.7
64.0
4
1
de slack work, material shortages, inability to
find
Data beginning .January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods bePersons at work. Economic reasons includ
cause of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire..
fulltime work, etc.
2
Civilian labor Force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and
NOTE..— Data beginning January 1997 reflect revise*! population controls. Set- Employment
unemployment as percent of civilian labor force,
and Earm-ngs,
February 1997, for details.
3
Not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Source; Department of Ijalx>r, Bureau of Ijabor Statistic*.
11
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In November, the unemployment rote fell to 4.6 percent from 4.7 percent in October.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT * (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
TEENAGERS
(16-19)
20
15
10
10
MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
V
WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
M in
1993
1997
1993
1994
1995
1996
•UNEMPIOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FOUCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IA1C*
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)
By race
By sex and age
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990 ...
1991
1992
1993 2 ...
1994
1995
1996
1996: Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
ADF
May .. .
June
July
Aue
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
All
civilian
workers
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.9
4.8
5.0
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.6
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and over
5.4
4.8
4.5
5.0
6.4
7.1
6.4
5.4
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.2
3.8
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.8
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.3
5.9
5.4
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.?
4.4
4.4
4.0
4.0
Both
sexes
16-19
years
16.9
15.3
15.0
15.5
18.7
20.1
19.0
17.6
17.3
16.7
16.8
16.5
17.0
17.5
16.4
15.4
15.6
16.8
16.4
16.4
16.7
15.3
15.0
Revised definition; for details, see. Employment and Earnings, February 1994.
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier |>criods
Norn.—Data relate to |>ersons age 16 years and over.
2
White
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
6.1
5.3
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.1
3.8
Black
and
other
11.6
10.4
10.0
10.1
11.1
12.7
11.7
10.5
9.6
9.3
9.1
9.2
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.0
9.3
9.1
8.2
8.2
8.4
8.1
8.4
By selected groups
Black
Experienced
wage
and
salary
workers
13.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
12.5
14.2
13.0
11.5
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.5
10.8
11.3
10.7
9.8
10.3
10.4
9.4
9.3
9.6
9.5
9.6
5.8
5.2
5.0
5.3
6.6
7.2
6.6
5.9
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.5
4.3
Married
men,
spouse
present
Women
who
maintain
families
3.9
3.3
3.0
3.4
4.4
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
Source: Department of Ijabor, Bureau of Labor Statistic.
9.2
8.1
8.1
8.3
9.3
10.0
9.7
8.9
8.0
8.2
8.8
8.4
9.1
9.0
9.1
7.5
7.6
8.0
7.4
8.1
7.7
7.7
8.1
Pull-time
workers '
Part-time
workers '
6.0
5.3
5.1
5.4
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.4
6.9
6.4
6.2
6.4
7.0
7.5
7.2
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.8
5.7
6.0
5.7
5.7
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.4
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
PROGRAMS
In November, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for
27 weeks and over fell; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks rose. The mean duration of unemployment fell to 15.6 weeks and the median duration rose to 7.8 weeks.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION '
70
70
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
60
50
40
30
REENTRANTS
—*
20
JOB LEAVERS
!0
_
•~?"
NEW ENTRANTS
1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 miilmn
1996
1995
| HI 1 1 I
1997
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
I/BEGINNING JANUARY 1994, JOft LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1 111ill
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally actuated, except as noted]
Duration of unemployment
Unemployment
(thousands)
Period
Percent distribution
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
43.7
46.0
48.6
46.3
40.3
35.1
36.5
34.1
36.5
36.4
38.9
37.1
39.0
36.3
37.4
35.7
38.1
37.3
35.7
38.5
36.7
40.6
37.6
29.6
30.0
30.3
32.0
32.4
29.4
28.9
30.1
31.6
31.6
31.0
32.7
31.0
33.4
33.6
32.7
30.6
32.5
31.5
31.6
31.8
28.9
33.1
12.7
12.0
11.2
11.7
14.4
15.1
14.5
15.5
14.6
14.6
14.0
13.5
13.1
14.4
14.1
16.0
16.3
15.3
16.5
13.8
15.4
13.7
14.1
Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution
State
programs
Number of weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Median
Job
losers1
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2
Weekly average, thousands
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 3
1994
1995
1996
1996: Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Julv
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
• .
7.425
6J01
6,528
7,047
8,628
9.613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,187
7,167
7.268
7.205
7,144
6.714
6,534
6.836
6,583
6.677
6,752
6,467
6.249
14.0
12.1
9.9
10.0
12.9
20.3
20.1
20.3
17.3
17.4
16.1
16.7
16.9
15.9
15.0
15.7
15.0
14.9
16.3
16.0
16.2
16.8
15.3
Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.
2
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCPE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental
compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.
3
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.
14.5
13.5
11.9
12.0
13.7
17.7
18.0
18.8
16.6
16.7
16.0
15.8
16.0
16.0
15.3
15.2
15.1
15.1
16.6
15.9
16.0
16-6
15.6
6.5
5.9
4.8
5.3
6.8
8.7
8.3
9.2
8.3
8.3
7.7
7.8
7.7
8.4
7.9
8.3
7.7
7.7
8.5
7.8
8.4
7.6
7.8
48.0
46.1
45.7
48.1
54.4
56.1
54.2
47.7
46.9
46.6
45.3
44.4
44.8
43.7
44.6.
44.3
44.1
46.2
44.5
46.0
45.0
45.2
44.9
13.0
14.7
15.7
14.8
11.6
10.4
10.9
9.9
11.1
10.7
11.5
11.7
12.3
10.9
11.0
11.2
12.2
12.2
12.6
13.7
12.9
11.2
10.4
26.6
27.0
28.2
27.4
24.8
23.8
24.6
34.8
34.1
34.7
35.1
35.3
34.6
36.6
35.4
36.0
35.0
34.6
34.4
32.2
33.7
34.9
35.8
12.4
12.2
10.4
9.8
9.2
9.7
10.3
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.1
8.6
8.3
8.9
9.0
8.6
8.7
7.1
8.5
8.2
8.4
8.6
9.0
2,300
2,081
2,158
2,522
3,342
3,245
2,751
2,670
2,575
2,594
2,444
2,518
2,453
2,375
2,294
2,274
2,263
2,326
2,300
2,308
2,233
2,229
2,241
328
310
330
388
447
408
341
340
357
356
338
355
334
311
312
333
326
341
319
325
308
308
318
2,369
2,135
2,205
2,575
3,406
3,348
2,845
2,739
2,636
2,649
2,105
2,750
3,035
3,031
2,929
2,502
2,069
2,208
'2,229
'2,107
'1,970
1,759
2,014
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and
initial claims).
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration),
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricuttural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 404,000 in November.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS'
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
130
38
SERVICES
RETA L TRADE
MANUFACTURING
18
30
_
CONSTRUCTION
20
1993
1993
1997
1997
*SCASONMLV ADJUSRD
MIJKE: mwlMENT 0* UK*
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVUSIS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;* seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries
Goods-producing industries
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
MavJune
July
Aue
Sepf
Ocf
NOVP
Total
nonagricultural
employment
101,958
105,209
107,884
109,403
108,249
108,601
110,713
114,163
117,191
119,523
120,450
120,659
120,909
121,162
121,344
121,671
121,834
122,056
122,440
122,492
122,792
123,079
123,483
Manufacturing
Total2
Construction
24,674
25,125
25,254
24,905
23,745
23,231
23,352
23,908
24,265
24,431
24,508
24,540
24,581
24,653
24,670
24,667
24,702
24,714
24,713
24,765
24,771
24,815
24,887
4,958
5,098
5,171
5,120
4,650
4,492
4,668
4,986
5,160
5,400
5,495
5,521
5,542
5,604
5,609
5,599
5,628
5,622
5,625
5,637
5,642
5,650
5,679
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
18,999
19,314
19,391
19,076
18,406
18,104
18,075
18,321
18,524
18,457
18,442
18,448
18,465
18,475
18,489
18,495
18,498
18,518
18,514
18,555
18,553
18,591
18,635
11,154
11,363
11,394
11,109
10,569
10,277
10,221
10,448
10,683
10,766
10,791
10,803
10,821
10,836
10,848
10,856
10,864
10,891
10,910
10,957
10,952
10,986
11,018
7,845
7,951
7,997
7,968
7,837
7,827
7,854
7,873
7,841
7,691
7,651
7,645
7,644
7,639
7,641
7,639
7,634
7,627
7,604
7,598
7,601
7,605
7,617
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments
who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes
proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total
in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes,
bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
14
Total
77,284
80,084
82,630
84,497
84,504
85,370
87,361
90,256
92,925
95,092
95,942
96,119
96,328
96,509
96,674
97,004
97,132
97,342
97,727
97,727
98,021
98,264
98,596
Transporta- Wholetion and
sale
public
trade
utilities
5,362
5,512
5,614
5,777
5,755
5,718
5,811
5,984
6,132
6,261
6,303
6,288
6,351
6,376
6,405
6,421
6,431
6,434
6,443
6,289
6,473
6,500
6,509
5,848
6,030
6,187
6,173
6,081
5,997
5,981
6,162
6,378
6,483
6,549
6,559
6,570
6,593
6,611
6,622
6,630
6,634
6,664
6,675
6,687
6,709
6,733
Retail
trade
18,422
19,023
19,475
19,601
19,284
19,356
19,773
20,507
21,187
21,625
21,847
21,912
21,917
21,922
21,945
22,029
22,026
22,079
22,159
22,189
22,215
22,249
22,354
Finance,
insurance, Services
and real
estate
6,533
6,630
6,668
6,709
6,646
6,602
6,757
6,896
6,806
6,899
6,949
6,962
6,971
6,980
6,992
7,019
7,029
7,034
7,058
7,068
7,082
7,106
7,125
24,110
25,504
26,907
27,934
28,336
29,052
30,197
31,579
33,117
34,377
34,800
34,884
34,990
35,091
35,176
35,334
35,451
35,522
35,684
35,702
35,850
35,956
36,136
Government
Total
17,010
17,386
17,779
18,304
18,402
18,645
18,841
19,128
19,305
19,447
19,494
19,514
19,529
19,547
19,545
19,579
19,565
19,639
19,719
19,804
19,714
19,744
19,739
Federal
2,943
2,971
2,988
3,085
2,966
2,969
2,915
2,870
2,822
2,757
2,732
2,728
2,723
2,716
2,709
2,708
2,703
2,694
2,689
2,690
2,680
2,689
2,686
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job
are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where
persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.
2
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS. HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
(For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted}
Total
41.0
41.1
41.0
40.8
40.7
41.0
41.4
42.0
41.6
41.6
41.7
42.0
41.8
41.9
42.1
42.1
42.0
41.8
41.8
41.8
41.9
42.0
42.1
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.5
34.3
34.4
34.5
34.7
34.5
34.4
34.5
34.7
34.4
34.8
34.8
34.5
34.5
34.6
34.4
34.6
34.5
34.5
34.8
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Peb
Mar
July
Sepf
Ocf
NOVP
Total private
nonagrieultural '
Total private
nonagricultural '
Manufacturing
Total
private
nonagricultural '
Period
Average gross weekly earnings
Average gross hourly earnings
Average weekly hours
Overtime
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
Current
dollars
$8.98
9.28
9.66
10.01
10.32
10.57
10.83
11.12
11.43
11.81
11.98
12.03
12.05
12.10
12.14
12.14
12.19
12.23
12.24
12.31
12.35
12.40
12.47
1982
dollars2
Manufacturing
$7.73
7.69
7.64
7.52
7.45
7.41
7.39
7.40
7.39
7.43
7.44
7.45
7.46
7.47
7.49
7.49
7.52
7.54
7.53
7.56
7.56
7.58
7.62
Current
dollars
$9.91
10.19
10.48
10.83
11.18
11.46
11.74
12.07
12.37
12.78
12.93
12.99
13.02
13.03
13.07
13.07
13.11
13.12
13.11
13.20
13.22
13.35
13.37
$312.50
322.02
334.24
345.35
353.98
363.61
373.64
385.86
394.34
40636
413.31
417.44
414.52
421.08
422.47
418.83
420.56
423.16
421.06
425.93
426.08
427.80
433.96
.
Percent change from
a year earlier, total
private nonagrictiltural3
Current dollars
1982
dollars2
Manufacturing
Construction
Ifctail
trade
$269.16
266.79
264.22
259.47
255.40
254.99
254.87
256.73
255.07
255.51
256.71
258.64
256.51
260.09
260.78
258.54
259.60
260.89
259.11
261.63
260.92
261.49
265.09
$406.31
418.81
429.68
441.86
455.03
469.86
486.04
506.94
514.59
531.65
539.18
545.58
544.24
545.96
550.25
550.25
550.62
548.42
548.00
551.76
553.92
560.70
562.88
$480.44
495.73
513.17
526.01
533.40
537.70
553.63
573.00
587.00
602.94
604.50
610.34
607.18
612.65
614.62
616.95
626.85
617.27
622.44
618.76
625.51
625.46
616.46
$178.70
183.62
188.72
194.40
198.48
205.06
209.95
216.46
221.47
230.11
234.96
236.64
235.87
238.91
240.08
238.71
239.29
239.87
239.62
243.28
242.50
244.49
245.36
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
2.5
3.0
3.8
3.3
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.3
2.2
3.0
3.9
5.5
5.1
5.2
5.4
4.6
4.4
3.6
3.9
4.4
3.1
4.3
4.9
-1.0
-.9
-1.0
-1.8
-1.6
-.2
-.0
.7
-.6
.2
.6
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.7
2.2
2.3
1.4
1.8
2.2
1.0
2.3
3.1
3
Based on seasonally unactyisted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
'Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and
clerical workers (CPI-W) (on a 1982=100 base).
2
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY
Percent change from
Index (June 1989 = 100)
3 months earlier
Period
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
93.1
97.6
102.3
107.0
111.7
115.6
119.8
123.5
126.7
130.6
94.1
98.0
102.0
106.1
110.0
112.9
116.4
119.7
123.1
127.3
Benefits'
Total
compensation
Wages am]
salaries
12 months earlier
Benefits'
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
Benefits '
Not seasonally adjusted
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
..
90.5
96.7
102.6
109.4
116.2
122.2
128.3
133.0
135.9
138.6
3.3
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
3.5
3.6
3.1
2.6
3.1
Seasonally adjusted
1994- Mar
Sept
Dec
1995- Mar
..
Sept
Dee
1996- Mar
Sept
Dee
1997- Mar
....
Sept
..
1
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6
124.4
125.2
126.0
126.9
127.7
128.8
129.7
130.6
131.4
132.5
133.6
117.1
118.1
119.0
119.8
120.6
121.5
122.4
123.2
124.4
125.5
126.4
127.4
128.5
129.7
130.9
Employer costs for employee benefits.
NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free
from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.
130.3
131.5
132.8
133.5
133.9
134.6
135.3
136.0
136.0
137.0
137.7
138.7
138.7
139.7
140.4
0.8
.8
.8
.7
.6
.6
.6
.7
.6
.9
.7
.7
.6
.8
.8
3.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
2.6
3.1
2.8
2.8
3.4
3.4
6.9
6.1
6.6
6.2
5.2
5.0
3.7
2.2
2.0
Not seasonally adjusted
0.5
.9
.8
.7
.7
.7
.7
.7
1.0
.9
.7
.8
.9
.9
.9
1.1
.9
1.0
.5
.3
.5
.5
.5
0
.7
.5
.7
0
.7
.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.6
4.4
3.9
4.0
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Data exclude farm and household workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic!
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of all
persons
Period
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Output 1
Business
sector
Compensation per
hour 3
Hour of all
ons2
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Real compensation
per hour 4
Business
sector
Unit labor
costs
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Implicit price
deflator 5
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Indexes, 1992 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
1993
1994
1995
1996
94.6
95.4
96.1
96.7
100.0
100.2
100.6
100.5
102.0
95.2
95.7
96.2
96.9
100.0
100.1
100.5
100.7
102.0
94.6
97.8
98.6
96.9
100.0
102.7
107.0
109.5
113.3
95.1
98.1
98.8
97.1
100.0
103.0
107.0
109.8
113.6
100.0
102.5
102.6
100.2
100.0
102.6
106.3
108.9
111.0
99.9
102.5
102.7
100.2
100.0
102.8
106.4
109.0
111.3
83.5
85.8
90.7
95.1
100.0
102.6
104.3
106.9
110.4
83.6
85.8
90.6
95.1
100.0
102.3
104.1
106.7
110.1
99.0
97.1
97.4
97.9
100.0
99.6
98.7
98.4
98.7
99.1
97.1
97.3
97.9
100.0
99.3
98.5
98.3
98.4
88.2
89.9
94.4
98.3
100.0
102.4
103.7
106.3
108.2
87.8
89.7
94.1
98.1
100.0
102.2
103.6
106.0
107.9
86.8
90.4
94.1
97.7
100.0
102.5
104.8
107.2
109.2
86.4
90.0
93.8
97.6
100.0
102.5
104.9
107.3
109.1
1993- III
IV
99.9
101.0
100.0
100.8
102.8
104.6
103.2
104.8
102.9
103.6
103.2
103.9
102.9
103.3
102.5
103.0
99.6
99.2
99.3
98.9
103.0
102.3
102.5
102.1
102.7
103.4
102.6
103.3
1994:
100.7
100.7
100.5
100.7
100.6
100.7
100.4
100.8
104.6
106.1
106.8
107.8
104.0
104.0
104.4
105.1
103.8
103.9
104.2
105.0
99.5
98.8
98.3
98.3
99.2
98.7
98.1
98.2
103.3
103.2
103.9
104.3
103.2
103.1
103.8
104.2
103.9
104.4
105.1
105.8
103.8
104.5
105.3
106.0
100.3
100.5
100.8
101.2
105.2
106.9
107.3
108.6
108.9
108.9
110.2
111.0
104.5
106.1
106.7
107.7
100.2
100.4
100.6
101.1
105.2
106.9
107.3
108.5
108.7
108.7
109.8
110.7
108.5
108.3
109.2
109.5
108.5
108.4
109.3
109.7
105.8
106.6
107.3
108.1
105.6
106.4
107.1
107.9
98.3
98.3
98.4
98.6
98.2
98.1
98.3
98.4
105.6
106.1
106.7
107.0
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.6
106.5
107.0
107.4
107.8
106.8
107.2
107.5
107.8
101.6
102.3
102.0
102.5
101.7
102.2
102.0
102.4
111.4
113.2
113.5
115.0
109.6
110.7
111.3
112.2
108.7
109.8
110.6
111.5
116.6
117.8
118.9
113.1
114.0
115.2
112.8
113.7
114.8
98.4
98.8
98.9
98.9
99.4
99.9
100.5
98.3
98.5
98.6
98.5
99.1
99.6
100.1
107.1
107.7
108.8
109.2
109.9
110.1
110.2
106.9
107.4
108.5
108.9
109.7
110.0
109.9
108.4
108.9
109.6
110.0
110.6
111.0
111.3
108.4
108.8
109.4
109.8
102.8
103.4
104.4
109.8
111.0
111.6
112.6
113.8
114.2
114.1
108.9
110.1
111.0
111.9
102.9
103.5
104.6
111.7
113.5
113.8
115.3
116.9
118.0
119.2
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
I
II
III
IV
1995: I
II
III ...
IV
1996- I
II ....
Ill
IV .
1997: I
II
Ill'*
113.3
113.7
113.7
110.5
110.9
111.2
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 .
1995
1996
1993- I
II
Ill
IV
1994- I . .
II
Ill .
IV ...
1995:
I
II
Ill
IV ..
1996:
I
II ....
Ill
IV
1997- I
II
IIIr*
1
0.6
.8
.7
.7
3.4
2
.4
-.0
1.5
0.7
.6
.5
.7
3.2
.1
.4
2
-3.8
-1.3
.7
4.3
-4.0
-1.8
1.7
3.3
-.9
.0
-.7
.7
3.8
3.4
.8
-1.7
3.2
2.7
4.1
2.3
3.5
-1.2
2.7
2.8
7.1
4.1
3.2
.7
-1.8
3.0
3.0
3.9
2.6
3.5
3.2
2.5
.1
-2.3
-.8
2.6
3.9
6.1
2.7
4.0
-1.1
.6
-1.1
1.3
-1.6
.8
1.1
1.6
2.6
6.4
1.5
4.5
2.2
2^5
-1.1
1.9
1.9
22
-LO
1.8
2.4
4.0
-2.1
.9
.7
2.0
3.3
2.6
.2
-2.5
— 2
2^8
3.5
2.4
2.2
4.6
2.8
5.7
4.8
5.2
2.6
1.6
2.5
3.3
4.4
2.7
5.5
4.9
5.2
2.3
1.7
2.5
3.1
0.5
-1.9
.3
.6
2.1
-.4
3.3
4.5
22
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.7
-A
-A
-.1
-1.6
1.6
6.6
1.5
5.0
3.5
6.3
2.3
3.8
3.0
_ 2
1.7
2.5
3.2
.3
1.3
2.8
.8
2
4.2
3.0
1.2
2
4.6
3.0
2.6
3.2
2.6
3.2
2.6
3.1
2.7
2.9
.9
-2.5
-2.0
.0
_ 2
.1
.5
.7
2.6
6.8
1.0
5.4
.6
4.4
2.1
3.6
2.7
4.7
3.3
3.3
2.8
4.4
2.9
3.3
-.6
1.3
.6
-.1
— .5
1.0
. .9
1.8
2.8
6.6
.9
5.4
2.9
-.7
3.5
1.0
.6
4.0
2.0
3.4
2.8
5.9
2.6
3.7
2.9
-.6
3.5
1.4
1.4
2.4
4.1
5.9
3.9
3.8
5.6
3.8
4.0
4.0
1.5
_ 2
4.2
1.4
-.1
4.4
3.3
4.3
4.5
3.3
3.9
1.9
2.2
2^3
2.1
2.2
1.9
1.3
0
2^6
3.7
2.4
2.0
2.0
Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for socia insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for
the self-employed,
4
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers
(CPI-U)."
5
Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index.
2
16
n
Q
.3
0.3
-2.0
.1
.7
2.1
-.7
-.8
-.3
2
4.0
1.9
5.0
4.1
1.7
2.4
1.2
2.6
1.8
3.6
2.1
5.0
4.2
1.9
2.2
1A
2.4
1.8
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.8
2.4
2.5
2.2
2^3
1.9
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.3
1.7
-1.0
-.9
-.3
-1.6
1.2
-2.0
-2.3
.3
6.6
3.9
1.0
-2.6
3.5
2.1
1.6
2.7
3.9
_ 2
2^4
1.8
6.1
3.9
-.1
-1.5
4.4
_ 2
2^4
1.6
2.0
2.1
2.7
2.5
3.8
1.7
1.5
2.6
2.1
2.5
3.2
2.4
9
4.8
2.3
1.9
1.2
4.2
2.3
1.6
1.3
2.9
1.6
1.7
1.3
3.1
1.5
1.2
1.0
.5
22
4A
1.4
.9
2.1
3.9
1.5
2.3
2.1
2.4
1.7
2.3
1.7
2.0
1.7
2.5
.9
.3
3.1
2.0
1.5
1.1
2.4
1.4
1.2
-.1
.6
.5
1
.9
9
NOTE. — Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on origina data; they therefore
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
*Data based on GDp data ^leased November 26, 1997. Other data for 1997; III shown
e g^^ jn this issue were released December *>3 1997
~ '
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
may
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in November. (Series revised.)
INDEX, 1992 = 100* (RATIO SCAU)
150
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
140
INDEX, 1992-100' (RATIO SCALE)
150
FINAL PRODUCTS
140
BUSINESS
j-^
s-^
^
130
^
ss~
_ f'
\X^-^l
120
no
100
110
150
140
90
100
MANUFACTURING
^^^ ,-'
— -'"
'
v_.
\
GOODS
'\
'/'" '"""—•-.
80
. DURABLE.
130
^/
DEFENSE
AND SPACE
EQUIPMENT
\
120
70
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 < n
110
100
N_
i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II
1
.''"'-""•-•
1 1111 11n 11
1 1 1 ! 1 11 1 1 1 1
PERCENT '
MB
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATPfTOTAL INDUSTRY)
150
140
imUTIES AND MINING
86
130
/IV
84
120
82
\A/^-~v^
^^
f^
~W^
110
80
!00
78
1997
1993
1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 11
1993
1994
111 1 ! i M lit
1995
1996
*S£ASONAliY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVBtNORS OF 1W FEDERAL SESBWE SYSTEM
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVBBC
[Monthly data seasonally acftusted]
Total industrial production
Period
Index,
1992=100
From
preceding
mouth
Capacity utilization
rate, percent2
Industry production indexes, 1992=100
Manufacturing
Percent change '
Prom
year
earlier
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Mining
Utilities
Total
industry
Manufacturing
4.6
'4.5
1.8
-.2
-2.0
3.1
3.6
5.4
4.9
3.5
92.8
97.1
99.0
98.5
96.2
100.0
103.8
110.0
116.0
120.2
92.0
98.1
100.5
99.0
95.5
100.0
105.7
114.4
123.9
131.7
93.8
96.0
97.3
97.9
97.0
100.0
101.7
105.2
107.4
108.0
'102.1
'104.7
'103.2
'104.8
'102.6
100.0
100.1
102.6
102.3
103.9
89.4
93.9
97.1
98.3
100.4
100.0
103.9
105.3
109.0
112.5
81.3
'84.0
'84.1
82.3
'79.3
80.2
81.3
83.1
83.4
82.4
81.3
83.8
83.6
81.4
'77.9
79.4
80.5
82.5
82.8
81.4
1989
1990
1991
1992'
1993'
1994'
1995'
1996'
'93.2
'97.4
'99.1
98.9
'97.0
100.0
103.6
109.2
114.5
118.5
1996: Nov'
Dec'
120.6
120.9
0.8
.3
4.3
4.7
122.5
123.1
134.9
135.3
109.6
110.3
103.6
102.9
113.6
112.7
82.5
82.5
81.5
81.5
1997- Jan' .
Peb'
Mar'
Apr'
May'
June'
July'
Aug'
Sept'
Ocf
NoV .
121.3
122.1
122.5
123.1
123.3
123.5
124.5
125.2
125.7
126.4
127.3
.3
.6
.3
.5
.2
.2
.8
.6
.4
.5
.8
5.2
4.6
5.3
4.7
4.3
3.9
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.6
5.6
123.5
124.4
124.9
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.9
127.9
128.2
129.0
130.2
136.1
137.8
138.7
139.5
140.1
141.2
142.4
144.3
144.6
145.5
147.6
110.2
110.4
110.5
110.8
110.7
110.5
110.9
111.0
111.3
112.0
112.4
103.7
106.0
106.7
105.5
106.7
105.7
106.5
106.3
106.5
105.8
105.6
112.5
110.3
109.6
112.5
111.8
110.9
113.8
113.0
115.0
115.7
114.7
82.4
82.6
82.5
82.6
82.4
82.3
82.6
82.8
82.8
82.9
83.2
81.4
81.7
81.6
81.6
81.4
81.3
81.5
81.8
81.7
81.8
82.3
1987
1988 .
1
..
Percent eh&ngcs based on imroumlwi indexes.
Output as percent of capacity.
NOTE.—Series revised, principally from 1992. For details, see Federal Reserve release G.17
(439) Supplement, Intlustrinl Prodwiion and Capacity Utilization: A Kftvisian, dated December
9, 1997.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
2
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1992=100: monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Products
Materials
Intermediate products
Final products
Consumer goods
Equipment
Period
Total
Durable
goods
93.7
96.7
97.7
97.3
97.0
100.0
103.0
107.1
109.9
111.8
113.1
113.6
113.2
113.1
113.4
113.4
113.9
113.5
113.9
114.6
114.6
115.4
116.0
93.9
99.8
101.3
98.0
93.0
100.0
109.2
119.5
121.6
125.8
126.9
128.4
128.0
129.4
130.7
127.4
128.8
129.8
128.1
132.1
132.0
131.1
134.3
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 . .
1992
1993' .. .
1994'
1995'
1996'
1996: Nov
Dec'
1997: Jan'
Peb'
Mar'
Apr'
May'
...
July
Aug'
Sept'
Ocf . ..
Nov*
1
"93.3
'97.9
'99.9
'99.5
'97.7
100.0
103.4
107.5
111.3
114.6
116.3
116.8
116.8
117.2
117.9
118.0
118.6
118.6
119.2
120.5
120.4
121.1
122.1
Nondurable
goods
93.6
95.9
96.7
97.1
98.1
100.0
101.5
104.0
106.9
108.3
109.7
109.9
109.4
109.0
109.1
109.9
110.1
109.4
110.3
110.3
110.3
111.4
111.5
1
Total
Business
'92.9
'99.9
'103.7
'103.2
'98.8
100.0
104.1
108.1
113.8
119.6
85.1
93.5
98.8
98.2
95.7
100.0
105.8
112.5
121.5
129.7
121.8
122.4
133.0
134.0
134.9
136.5
137.5
137.9
139.0
140.2
141.6
144.6
144.5
145.3
147.5
123.1
124.6
125.8
126.0
126.8
127.7
128.6
130.9
130.8
131.3
132.9
Defense
and
space
equipment
117.5
117.1
117.4
115.9
106.7
100.0
93.8
86.9
81.4
76.9
76.5
76.2
75.5
75.6
75.7
75.4
75.6
76.0
74.9
75.0
74.7
74.8
75.1
Total
100.7
102.5
102.9
101.9
97.5
100.0
102.5
106.3
108.3
110.8
113.7
113.0
113.5
114.1
114.1
114.7
114.9
114.7
114.6
115.3
115.4
116.1
116.7
Construction
supplies
Business
supplies
104.7
106.3
105.5
102.9
96.2
100.0
103.4
110.6
112.6
117.4
122.3
118.7
119.1
121.7
122.3
121.8
122.2
122.2
121.2
122.7
120.9
121.9
122.9
98.4
100.3
101.3
101.4
98.3
100.0
101.9
103.7
105.7
106.9
108.7
109.6
110.2
109.6
109.2
110.6
110.6
110.2
110.6
111.0
112.1
112.6
113.0
Total
Energy
96.2
98.5
99.5
100.6
100.8
100.0
99.6
101.4
102.6
103.5
103.0
102.7
103.6
103.8
103.4
103.7
103.7
103.2
104.6
103.9
105.4
105.2
104.7
90.4
95.1
97.0
97.2
95.9
100.0
104.1
112.3
120.8
126.2
128.4
129.0
129.7
131.0
131.3
132.5
132.4
133.0
134.9
134.9
136.2
136.9
137.9
Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.
[1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992 .
1993'
1994'
1995'
1996'
1996- Nov
Dec'
1997- Jan'
Feb'
Mar'
Apr'
May' . ...
Julv'
Aug'
Sept'
Ocf
NOTE.—See Note, p. 17.
....
.. .
Industrial
machinery and
equipment
Electrical
machinery
75.6
82.5
85.8
87.7
89.6
100.0
110.7
133.2
170.9
199.3
207.7
210.5
96.1
101.1
105.1
102.3
96.5
100.0
103.8
107.1
105.7
106.5
108.8
109.1
94.9
100.2
101.2
95.3
88.5
100.0
113.6
129.8
131.0
130.2
130.7
130.1
104.9
105.1
104.3
101.6
94.5
100.0
100.8
105.9
107.8
111.8
115.2
110.2
105.5
'103.5
100.3
97.2
97.8
100.0
102.4
106.5
107.1
102.2
120.9
120.6
86.0
'97.1
103.0
100.1
95.4
100.0
109.9
124.8
142.7
155.3
159.9
161.3
120.6
121.7
122.1
122.5
122.7
121.9
122.4
122.8
123.5
124.1
125.0
162.8
164.0
165.1
167.8
168.0
168.8
172.2
175.9
174.1
176.1
177.8
211.1
217.4
220.8
223.7
226.3
229.7
235.5
236.8
238.4
241.1
245.2
110.9
111.4
112.3
110.7
110.8
113.0
112.2
117.0
118.7
118.5
122.0
133.4
133.3
134.0
129.7
129.2
132.5
130.0
138.9
141.2
139.9
146.2
111.4
114.2
114.9
115.9
116.4
117.0
116.1
115.4
113.6
113.8
116.1
Primary metals
Fabricated
Total
Iron
and
steel
products
97.8
106.2
104.9
104.0
96.7
100.0
105.7
113.4
117.2
118.9
120.8
120.5
95.4
107.6
106.2
106.4
96.0
100.0
107.1
113.7
117.7
117.6
119.3
118.0
101.9
106.1
104.8
101.2
96.2
100.0
104.4
112.2
116.6
119.6
119.4
121.6
121.8
122.3
124.2
124.9
125.2
125.5
125.5
127.4
128.6
118.8
119.9
119.6
121.2
123.9
122.6
122.2
121.8
124.5
126.5
127.8
Period
Nondurable manufactures
Transportation
equipment
Total
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Lumand
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
101.2
100.0
102.5
103.4
103.5
103.1
99.1
100.0
100.6
100.7
101.5
101.5
103.1
103.2
87.0
92.2
95.1
97.3
96.4
100.0
101.4
104.7
107.5
110.5
113.5
114.9
93.5
94.9
95.9
97.0
98.4
100.0
102.0
103.7
106.8
107.3
108.2
109.0
100.5
99.5
100.1
99.8
99.8
99.6
99.7
99.1
99.1
99.7
99.6
103.2
103.3
103.6
104.4
104.5
104.1
104.1
104.4
105.1
106.4
106.4
115.2
114.6
113.6
115.2
114.5
114.6
114.3
114.5
115.0
115.5
116.1
109.3
109.4
110.0
109.2
109.2
108.8
110.0
108.9
109.4
110.3
111.2
Apparel
products
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Foods
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construct ion contracts 3
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Residential
Total
Xew housing
units
Total '
Commercial
and industrial 2
Other
Federal
and
State
and
local
Total value
index
(1992=100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
Billions of dollars
441.6
455.6
469.8
468.5
424.2
452.1
478.6
519.9
534.1
568.6
1987 .
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
351.0
360.9
371.6
361.1
314.1
336.2
362.7
399.4
406.8
437.1
194.7
198.1
196.6
182.9
157.8
187.8
210.5
238.9
230.7
247,2
104.4
109.6
118.0
119.4
93.7
82.2
84.4
93.3
107.9
118.8
139.9
138.9
139.2
128.0
110.6
129.6
144.1
167.9
162.9
179.4
52.0
53.2
57.1
58.8
62.6
66.2
67.8
67.2
68.2
71.1
90.6
94.7
98.2
107.5
110.1
115.8
116.0
120.5
127.3
131.5
103
104
108
98
92
100
108
118
122
131
Annual rates
1996: Oct
Nov
Dee
1997: Jan .
Feb
Mar
Julv
Sept
Ocf
1
Includes residential
2
Includes hotels and
3
1,019
973
961
783
577
556
589
744
862
829
Annual rates
584.1
586.2
579.1
449.0
448.9
447.0
247.9
248.3
247.9
179.9
180.0
179.1
127.3
126.4
123.0
73.8
74.2
76.2
135.2
137.3
132.1
128
'134
129
683
777
782
577.1
. 592.4
593.9
596.9
595.8
594.2
602.3
602.3
604.8
605.5
444.4
452.0
452.7
457.6
459.9
456.9
463.5
463.7
466.6
466.4
246.7
251.4
254.0
259.9
259.7
257.3
258.8
260.0
263.7
265.6
178.3
183.4
184.1
185.2
185.3
182.8
182.8
183.7
186.6
189.8
126.8
128.2
124.5
118.3
122.3
123.4
128.2
126.1
124.1
122.8
70.9
72.5
74.2
79.4
77.9
76.3
76.5
77.6
78.7
78.0
132.7
140.3
141.2
139.3
135.9
137.3
138.8
138.6
138.3
139.1
131
133
'136
••141
••144
'143
'139
'138
'138
'135
771
843
772
834
853
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companies,
Inc., F.W. Dodge Division.
improvements, not shown separately.
motels.
F.W. Dodge series.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes
New private housing units
Units started, by type of structure
Period
Total
1987 .
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1,620.5
1,488.1
1,376.1
1,192.7
1,013.9
1,199.7
1,287.6
1,457.0
1,354.1
1,476.8
1 unit
1,146.4
1,081.3
1,003.3
894.8
840.4
1,029.9
1,125.7
1,198.4
1,076.2
1,160.9
2-4 units
5 or more
units
65.3
58.8
55.2
37.5
35.6
30.7
29.4
35.0
33.7
45.2
408.7
348.0
317.6
260.4
137.9
139.0
132.6
223.5
244.1
270.8
Units
authorized
1,534.8
1,455.6
1,338.4
1,110.8
948.8
1,094.9
1,199.1
3
1,371.6
1,332.5
1,425.6
Units
completed
Homes
sold
Homes for
sale at end
of period i
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
1,668.8
1,529.8
1,422.8
1,308.0
1,090.8
1,157.5
1,192.7
1,346.9
1,312.6
1,412.9
671
676
650
534
509
610
666
670
667
757
366
368
365
321
284
265
293
336
370
322
7.7
7.7
27.4
7.2
7.4
7.4
= 7.3
7.4
7.6
7.8
7.7
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1996: Oct
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
May
June
Jvdv
Sept'
Oct'
Nov
1
1,407
1.486
1,353
1,104
1,133
1,024
58
60
48
245
293
281
1,349
1,391
1,405
1,375
1,431
1,484
706
788
794
330
327
322
1,375
1,554
1,479
1,483
1,402
1,503
1,465
1,395
1.507
1,519
1,531
1,125
1,237
1,142
1,133
1,098
1,134
1,149
1,091
1,181
1,138
1,166
43
44
45
40
34
37
37
42
46
57
37
207
273
292
310
270
332
279
262
280
324
328
1,395
1,438
1,457
1,442
1,432
1,402
1,414
1,397
1,460
1,487
1,440
1,362
1,572
1,471
1,460
1,388
1,318
1,320
'1,325
1,431
1,391
822
826
825
765
764
802
812
791
811
797
308
300
287
291
288
288
288
286
287
290
Seasonally adjusted.
Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993
data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.
3
The 1994 total based on 37,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units.
2
7.5
7.9
7.9
XOTE.—Beginning 1994, unite authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units
authorized are for 17,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In October, manufacturing and trade sales fel! 0.2 percent and inventories rose $4.8 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales rose 0.2 percent in November, after falling 0.2 percent in October.
BILUC*« OF DOLLARS*
(RATIO SCALE)
BILUCINS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
400
1,200
1,100
p-
1,000
~—
900
r"\
700
—
300
___
250
..--'Ir~'
•x
600
350
*-
^--
MAINUFACTURIN 3ANC
TRADE INVENT!DRIES
800
"
—
•-—
^^^
RETAIL INVENTOR ES
^
^
^^
NUFACR/RINi
AN 5 TRADE SALE s
200
tAt.
^"\
XX"~"
RETAIL SALE!
500
I.MII
150
RATIO *
1.70
400
1 1 t 1 ill M M
1 1 nil ii i ii i M i il I ii 1 1 in i ill i in
INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
RETAIL
1.60
300
1.50
1.40
/ "v
^..x-v-1
V
—\_
~V"V/V"^
r~^/''\
V./--V
S~^^7^
/
h(ANUFACTUR NG
Mill
7993
1994
i ii H li in i
1997
11 III
1995
1994
1.20 M I t t 1 I I I M 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1
1994
)993
1 1 1 1 1 E 11 1 11
1995
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1996
1997
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3OUSCT: DSMTM!NTOf COMMEBCE
Manufacturing and
trade1
COUNOLOFEaDNOMIC ADVISERS
Inventories3
Retail
Wholesale
Sales2
Period
Sales 2
V—
ANDTRADI
1.30
200
...
Sales 2
Inventories3
Durable
goods
stores
Total
Inventory-sales
ratio4
Inventories8
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
trade1
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
80,453
85,587
91,818
97,981
100,497
103,999
108,055
112,826
116,585
120,997
207,836
219,047
237,234
239,773
243,275
251,994
267,497
290,128
303,750
314,183
105,481
112,453
121,347
121,105
119,039
122,948
133,624
149,840
159,767
165,997
102,355
106,594
115,887
118,668
124,236
129,046
133,873
140,288
143,983
148,186
1.50
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.53
1.48
1.44
1.41
1.42
1.39
1.55
1.54
1.58
1.55
1.54
1.52
1.51
1.50
1.55
1.52
255,526 206,693
255,850 '205,933
255,808 206,894
84,066 122,627
'83,582 '122,351
123,109
83,785
314,178
313,490
314,183
167,122
165,865
165,997
147,056
147,625
148,186
1.38
1.37
1.38
1.52
1.52
1.52
257,895 210,233
258,088 213,022
259,389 212,342
258,046 209,934
259,029 209,370
264,154 210,940
262,314 213,549
264,899 214,372
268,112 213,805
269,657 '213,409
213,821
85,344 124,889
87,786 125,236
87,042 125,300
85,472 124,462
84,759 124,611
85,762 125,178
87,228 126,321
88,014
126,358
87,025 126,780
'86,541 '126,868
86,684 127,137
313,980
315,938
315,427
317,596
316,536
317,278
318,871
316,897
319,908
320,021
165,441
167,380
167,444
168,701
167,928
168,696
169,863
168,855
170,573
171,237
148,539
148,558
147,983
148,895
148,608
148,582
149,008
148,042
149,335
148,784
1.37
1.35
1.36
1.36
1.37
1.37
1.36
1.37
1.36
1.37
1.49
1.48
1.49
1.51
1.51
1.50
1.49
1.48
1.50
1.50
457,735
497,157
527,039
545,909
542,815
567,176
595,049
637,585
681,597
716,763
709,848
767,222
815,455
840,396
834,287
842,204
867,513
930,049
985,905
1,004,425
122,968
134,521
143,760
149,506
148,306
154,150
161,681
172,973
188,811
201,723
163,903
178,801
187,009
195,550
200,062
207,663
215,878
234,893
253,066
255,808
1996- Oct'
Nov
Dee
728,644
'730,790
728,760
1,003,742
1,004,540
1,004,425
205,490
205,561
205,560
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
737,464
747,790
745,460
746,769
742,945
750,027
757,485
752,886
762,543
760,999
1,007,618
1,011,899
1,013,376
1,017,150
1,019,025
1,026,255
1,027,787
1,030,243
1,037,172
1,041,930
207,506
211,801
210,195
209,926
210,008
210,772
211,041
208,336
213,372
213,457
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
. .
May
July
Sept'
Ocf
NOVP
1
See page 21 for manufacturing.
Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data i
ionatly adjusted totals for month.
2
20
47,989
52,430
54,763
55,736
54,165
58,634
64,677
72,784
77,085
82,778
128,442
138,017
146,581
153,718
154,661
162,632
172,732
185,610
193,670
203,775
3
Seasonally a<Jjusted, end of period.
4
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratio!
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES. AND ORDERS
In October, manufacturers' shipments fell; Inventories and new and unfilled orders rose. According to advance
data for November, manufacturers' durable shipments fell and new orders rose.
BIWONS Of DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
SHIPMENT6
320
-
,^.
280
X
\
_^-^^
—
.
480 ~INVENTOkibb
440
400
-i
360
320
.>W
^——
TOTAL
240
200
*•-'"""
,....—*
'-'
_ .— •«
"V
\
DURABLE GOODS
240
•*.—,•-
120
TOTAL
280
CH RABLE GOOD S
160
1 -
• =^
r
^~ .—
\
m,~~—
200
" 7
160
NON! lURABLEGOC OS
—.
'\
NO DURABLE GO X>S
80 M 1 Ml 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1111M 111
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
120
111 1 1 1 1 H LL 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1
BILUCINS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
320 - NEWORDEPS
•—*~~~ "
_^
280
~~s*-~^
240
-* ——"""
80 1 1 1 1 1 M i l l
TOTAL
200
JRABLEGOO
160
V.'
RATIO *
2.00
-.,.'•'"'
1 I 1 1 1 1 M 1M
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ni
! 1 1 t i 1 11 1 11
1 11 [ 1i 11 1 1 1
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
1.80
*•*••
x —'•''"*
S'*f'S'~'*'
***>•***'
120
7 1 "'
1.60
NON XJRABLEGOC•*& ~
s-XV-X^
1.40
80
I 1 1 1 111 1M 1
1993
1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1994
1995
1 M 111 11 1 11
1 M 1 I 1 1 II 1 1
1996
1997
1.20
1 tt 1 M H M 1
1 M 11I 1 1M 1
1993
1994
it 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1
1995
^TTu,i
1996 1997
*SEASONAU.YAI»JS1H>
source omtauetacf COMMSCE
COUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADVSRS
Manufacturers' shipment** '
Manufacturers' inventories2
Manufacturers' new orders '
Durable goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Total
Capital
goals
industries,
nondcfcnsc
Nondurable
goods
26,094
31,108
32,988
33,331
30,471
31,524
31,694
35,697
40,561
43,913
46,293
43,081
43,162
45,094
46,264
44,505
43,751
44,211
47,211
47,412
47,987
48,625
49,936
58,887
98,579
106,194
113,516
118,924
118,957
121,905
124,617
130,191
138,885
144,234
147,377
148,764
146,882
148,061
147,665
147,202
148,432
147,599
147,970
149,459
148,845
150,054
150,749
Manufacturent'
unfilled
orders2
Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio3
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 .
1994
1995
1996
1996- Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
May
.. . .
July
Sept'
Ocf
Nov
206,326 108,128
224,619 118,458
236,698 123,158
242,686 123,776
239,847 121,000
250,394 128,489
260,635 135,886
279,002 149,131
299,116 160,101
311,265 167,166
316,461 169,368
319,296 171,426
316,306 169,504
319,725 171,403
322,967 174,862
322,923 176,224
326,909 178,482
323,567 175,900
328,315 180,687
332,895 183,827
330,178 181,131
335,366 185,496
334,133 -•183,632
182,862
98,198
106,161
113,540
118,910
118,847
121,905
124,749
129,870
139,015
144,099
147,093
147,870
146,802
148,322
148,105
146,699
148,427
147,667
147,628
149,068
149,047
149,870
150,501
338,109
369,374
391,212
405,073
390,950
382,547
384,138
405,028
429,089
434,434
434,038
435,200
434,434
435,743
437,873
438,560
441,508
443,460
444,823
446,602
448,447
449,152
452,252
'Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally actuated figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
2
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
117,310
126,906
133,699
141,864
140,931
144,381
144,734
151,337
163,174
163,105
162,422
163,002
163,105
163,091
163,703
163,927
164,516
165,376
165,657
165,802
166,569
167,390
168,641
220,799
242,468
257,513
263,209
250,019
238,166
239,404
253,691
265,915
271,329
271,616
272,198
271,329
272,652
274,170
274,633
276,992
278,084
279,166
280,800
281,878
281,762
283,611
209,389 110,809
228,270 122,076
239,572 126,055
244,507 125,583
238,805 119,849
248,212 126,308
257,698 133,081
279,733 149,542
300,353 161,469
314,197 169,963
322,392 175,015
322,400 173,636
316,898 170,016
323,864 175,803
326,537 178,872
321,146 173,944
325,544 177,112
324,042 176,443
329,554 181,584
331,138 181,679
335,040 186,195
336,264 186,210
336,831 '186,082
195,013
430,426
474,154
508,849
531,131
519,199
493,184
458,245
467,369
482,605
517,647
513,951
517,055
517,647
521,786
525,356
523,579
522,214
522,689
523,928
522,171
527,033
527,931
530,629
1.59
1.57
1.63
1.65
1.65
1.54
1.48
1.41
1.41
1.39
1.37
1.36
1.37
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.35
1.37
1.35
1.34
1.36
1.34
1.35
3
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
The producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.2 percent in November. Prices of finished consumer foods
fell 0.1 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.3 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.1
percent.
INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SCAlf)
INDEX, 1982-100 (RATIO SCAIE)
150
150
120
CONSUMER GOODS
EXCLUDING FOODS
110
110
100
100
1989
1990
1996
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR
1997
COUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1982=100; moiitlily data seasonally adjusted]
Intermediate materials
Finished goods
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Consumer goods
Total
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July ....
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
105.4
108.0
113.6
119.2
121.7
123.2
124.7
125.5
127.9
131.3
132.7
133.4
133.0
132.6
132.3
131.6
131.3
131,1
131.0
131.4
132.0
132.1
131.9
109.5
112.6
118.7
124.4
124.1
123.3
125.7
126.8
129.0
133.6
136.2
135.9
134.6
134.1
135.2
134.7
135.3
134.1
133.8
134.1
134.2
134.7
134.6
104.0
106.5
111.8
117.4
120.9
123.1
124.4
125.1
127.5
130.6
131.5
132.5
132.4
132.0
131.4
130.6
130.0
130.2
130.0
130.5
131.3
131.3
131.0
100.7
103.1
108.9
115.3
118.7
120.8
121.7
121.6
124.0
127.6
129.0
130.3
130.2
129.7
128.8
127.6
127.0
127.2
127.0
127.7
128.6
128.7
128.3
1
Intermediate materials for fowl manufacturing and feeds.
NOTE.—Beginning 1996, indexes are based on updated value weights.
22
Durable
111.5
113.8
117.6
120.4
123.9
125.7
128.0
130.9
132.7
134.2
134.5
134.5
134.4
134.5
134.6
134.4
133.6
133.5
132.7
133.3
133.9
134.1
133.7
N
ble
94.9
97.3
103.8
111.5
115.0
117.3
117.6
116.2
118.8
123.3
125.1
127.0
126.8
126.1
124.7
123.2
122.6
123.0
123.1
123.7
124.8
124.8
124.5
Capital
equipment
111.7
114.3
118.8
122.9
126.7
129.1
131.4
134.1
136.7
138.3
138.5
138.5
138.6
138.5
138.5
138.4
138.1
138.2
138.0
138.0
138.4
138.3
138.2
Tfttnl
J.OULI
finished
coiisuni6r
goods
103.6
106.2
112.1
118.2
120.5
121.7
123.0
123.3
125.6
129.5
131.3
132.1
131.6
131.1
130.8
129.9
129.6
129.4
129.2
129.7
130.4
130.6
130.3
Total
101.5
107.1
112.0
114.5
114.4
114.7
116.2
118.5
124.9
125.8
125.8
126.4
126.6
126.4
125.9
125.5
125.3
125.3
125.2
125.2
125.6
125.5
125.7
Foods
and
feeds'
99.2
109.5
113.8
113.3
111.1
110.7
112.7
114.8
114.8
128.1
126.3
125.6
125.0
124.9
127.1
127.7
128.4
126.5
124.5
124.2
125.9
122.4
124.4
Crude materials
Other
Total
101.7
106.9
111.9
114.5
114.6
114.9
116.4
118.7
125.5
125.6
125.8
126.5
126.7
126.6
125.9
125.4
125.2
125.3
125.2
125.3
125.6
125.7
125.8
93.7
96.0
103.1
108.9
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of I^abor Statistics.
101.2
100.4
102.4
101.8
102.7
113.8
115.0
122.1
126.7
116.2
107.3
107.9
110.2
106.7
106.6
107.4
108.0
112.3
114.1
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffls
96.2
106.1
111.2
113.1
105.5
105.1
108.4
106.5
105.8
121.5
117.7
114.5
113.1
111.5
113.7
117.2
117.0
110.4
110.9
110.9
110.6
110.6
110.3
Other
87.9
85.5
93.4
101.5
94.6
93.5
94.7
94.8
96.8
104.5
109.1
122.7
131.0
115.1
99.2
97.8
101.7
100.3
99.9
101.2
102.4
109.2
112.4
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted; it fell 0.1
percent not seasonally adjusted, The index was 1.8 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1 982-84 - 1 00 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1 982-84 - 1 00 (RATIODUE)
S<
180
180
SEASONALLY ADJUSTS)
170
170
160
160
f^
CONSUMER PRICES— ALL ITEMS
\
150
r--^
150
^^
\^
^-1
140
-^—
r^
/I
130
/-120
120
110
110
100
1 1 1 1 1 1 II II 1
1989
1 1 1 \ 11( i 1 11
1 M M 111M i
1991
1990
1 M M 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 f t M 1 i i u 1 1 i i i i i 1 1 M i 1 i i i M 1 1 I 1 t ! 11 M I 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 I 1 1
1992
1994
1993
1995
IS NOTE ON TAKE IEnew
iC«CE:tJe>AKT«NT OF IMC*
100
1997
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISSE
[1982—84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All items1
Transportation
Housing
Shelter
Period
Ret. imp.3
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
July
Sept ..
Oct
Nov
1
Not
season- Seasonally
ally
adjust- adjusted
ed
(NSA)
100.0
113.6
118.3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
156.9
158.6
158.6
159.1
159.6
160.0
160.2
160.1
160.3
160.5
160.8
161.2
161.6
161.5
158.8
159.2
159.4
159.8
159.9
160.0
160.1
160.3
160.6
160.9
161.3
161.6
161.8
Food
15.9
113.5
118.2
125.1
132.4
136.3
137.9
140.9
144.3
148.4
153.3
156.4
156.4
156.0
156.5
156.5
156.2
156.8
157.1
157.6
158.3
158.4
158.7
159.0
Total
Renters'
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)
28.2
121.3
127.1
132.8
140.0
146.3
151.2
155.7
160.5
165.7
171.0
172.6
172.9
173.4
174.0
174.3
174.9
175.4
175.8
176.2
176.6
177.0
177.5
177.9
8.0
128.1
133.6
138.9
146.7
155.6
160.9
165.0
169.4
174.3
180.2
181.5
181.7
182.8
183.4
183.9
184.5
184.8
185.4
185.3
185.7
186.4
187.6
187.6
Total1
41.2
114.2
118.5
123.0
128.5
133.6
137.5
141.2
144.8
148.5
152.8
154.4
154.7
155.2
155.6
155.6
155.9
156.1
156.5
156.8
156.9
157.3
157.7
158.2
Includes items not shown separately.
Household fiiels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc. excluded beginning 1983.
3
Relative importance, December 1996.
2
Home- Main- Fuel
teownand
ers'
nance other
utiliand
costs
ties
re(Dec.
1982= pairs
100) (NSA)
20.0
124.8
131.1
137.3
144.6
150.2
155.3
160.2
165.5
171.0
176.5
178.3
178.6
179.0
179.5
179.8
180.4
180.9
181.2
181.9
182.4
182.6
182.9
183.5
0.2
111.8
114.7
118.0
122.2
126.3
128.6
130.6
130.8
135.0
139.0
141.1
141.5
141.5
142.3
142.4
142.5
143.2
143.3
145.4
145.5
142.6
144.7
144.9
7.1
103.0
104.4
107.8
111.6
115.3
117.8
121.3
122.8
123.7
127.5
129.6
130.3
131.2
131.6
130.5
130.2
129.4
130.2
130.5
129.9
130.7
131.1
132.3
Apparel
and
up- Total'
keep
5.3
110.6
115.4
118.6
124.1
128.7
131.9
133.7
133.4
132.0
131.7
131.7
131.8
132.3
132.6
132.2
133.4
133.6
133.3
133.5
132.2
132.6
132.7
132.9
17.1
105.4
108.7
114.1
120.5
123.8
126.5
130.4
134.3
139.1
143.0
144.8
145.7
145.4
145.3
145.4
144.8
143.6
143.2
143.3
144.2
144.8
144.9
143.9
New
cars
Motor
fuel
4.0
114.6
116.9
119.2
121.0
125.3
128.4
131.5
136.0
139.0
141.4
142.1
142.2
141.9
141.9
142.0
142.0
141.8
141.7
141.8
141.7
141.7
141.4
141.2
3.2
80.2
80.9
88.5
101.2
99.4
99.0
98.0
98.5
100.0
106.3
108.4
111.1
111.8
111.8
109.5
106.8
102.5
101.4
101.2
106.2
108.0
107.5
105.2
Medical
care
Energy:*
All
items
less
food
and
energy
7.3
130.1
138.6
149.3
162.8
177.0
190.1
201.4
211.0
220.5
228.2
231.0
231.5
231.9
232.3
233.2
233.8
234.5
234.9
235.0
235.5
235.9
236.1
236.9
7.0
88.6
89.3
94.3
102.1
102.5
103.0
104.2
104.6
105.2
110.1
112.0
113.7
114.6
114.9
112.9
111.2
108.5
108.5
108.4
110.2
111.6
111.7
111.5
77.0
118.2
123.4
129.0
135.5
142.1
147.3
152.2
156.5
161.2
165.6
167.4
167.7
167.9
168.3
168.7
169.2
169.5
169.7
170.0
170.1
170.4
170.8
171.0
NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowner-ship costs (beginning
1983).
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by XSAj
Change from preceding period
Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Total
finished
goods
Period
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Poods
Capital
equipment
Total
finished
goods
Excluding
foods
Poods
Total
finished
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Poods
goods
Change
from year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1999
1993
1994
1995
1996
-0.2
5.7
5.2
2.6
-1.5
1.6
2.4
1.1
1.9
3.4
2 '2
4.0
4.9
5.7
-.1
1.6
9
1.7
23
2.8
4.1
3.1
5.3
8.7
— .7
1.6
-1.4
2.0
2.3
3.7
2.1
2.5
5.2
4.9
2.1
1.2
12
.6
1.9
2.7
1.3
3.6
3.8
3.4
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
22
.4
Change, month to month
1996- N'ov
Dec
0.2
.5
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
-.3
0.3
1.0
0
0
3.4
4.3
4.8
2.4
4.1
7.0
0
-.6
2.9
3.4
7.0
3.5
2.4
4.8
0.6
.3
3.0
2.8
-1.0
-.4
.8
-.4
.4
-.9
-.1
-.4
-.7
-.9
— .5
9
.1
1
0
-.1
_ 9
.1
-.1
0
.3
-.1
1.5
-4.6
-6.0
-2.0
.3
3.6
-3.2
-2.6
-3.5
.3
••2.7
1.5
5.1
2.2
-4.5
-7.8
-8.1
-4.9
-1.9
.3
0
0
-.6
-1.2
-.9
-1.2
-.3
.6
.9
.6
2.8
1.5
.5
-1.4
-2.1
-3.4
-3.0
-1.8
— .5
.8
.9
1.4
-.7
.1
-22
-1.3
-2.6
-1.2
0
-1.5
0
-1.0
4.4
3.2
1.1
-1.5
-3.1
-4.7
-4.9
-3.1
-.3
1.7
2.1
.4
0
-.3
-.1
-.6
-.4
-.9
-.7
i
-.1
.1
2.5
2.2
1.5
.8
.4
-.1
0
9
_ 9
— .5
_ 9
_ 9
-.1
July
— 9
.3
.5
.1
_ 9
Sept
Get
_ 9
9
r9
'.6
.7
.1
-.3
.1
.4
-.1
Q
-3^3
-4.1
-3.9
-3.6
-1.8
.3
2.8
3.4
1.5
1
99
4.5
'5.5
1.9
_ 9
9
0
_ 9
-.6
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Housing
Transportation
Shelter
All
items *
Period
Pood
Total'
Total '
Renters'
costs
Homeowners'
costs
Fuel
and
other
utilities
Apparel
and
Total i
upkeep
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Energy2
All
items
less
food
and
energy
Addendum: All items,
percent change
(annual rate)
Prom
previous
quarter 3
From
From
From
3
6
year
months months earlier
earlier earlier
NSA
Change, December to December, NSA
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
.. ..
1.6
2.9
3.2
4.0
2.9
2.3
2.5
4.8
4.7
1.0
5.1
3.4
1.4
.9
-1.6
.1
3.7
4.0
3.9
4.5
3.4
2.6
2.7
2.2
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.5
4.9
5.2
3.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.9
3.9
3.9
4.5
6.7
4.2
2.8
2.6
2.3
3.0
3.4
5.3
4.7
5.1
4.7
3.7
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.7
2.8
0.4
0
0.3
_2
0.2
2
0.2
.1
0.3
_2
0.5
.5
0.3
.1
-.3
.3
0
_ 9
.4
_2
',3
.4
1
.3
.3
0
_9
.1
.3
2
.1
3
.3
.3
.3
.3
_2
.3
.3
_2
3
2
3
.3
.7
.3
-.8
.4
9
2
.6
.3
.3
.3
_2
.3
-.1
9
9
9
.4
.6
0
4.4
4.4
4.6
6.1
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.5
3.3
3.5
5.2
5.6
5.3
1.9
1.5
2.9
2.9
2.1
4.3
0.3
.3
.1
.3
.1
.1
.1
.1
2
2
9
1.4
4.6
6.1
3.0
4.0
10.4
-1.5
3.0
2.4
3.8
1.5
4.4
__ 9
1.8
2.1
2.3
1.4
3.3
2.3
2.8
3.2
1.6
1.6
18.7
-2.1
6.8
36.5
-16.0
1.8
-54
5.9
-4.0
12.7
5.8
6.9
8.5
9.6
7.9
6.6
5.4
4.9
3.9
3.0
8.2
.5
5.1
18.1
-7.4
2.0
-1.4
2.2
-L3
8.6
4.2
4.7
4.4
5.2
4.4
3.3
3.2
2.6
3.0
2.6
-0.2
.1
„2
1.7
2.5
0.3
1.2
1.5
0.2
.6
0
-2.1
-2.5
-4.0
-1.1
_2
_2
.4
.3
.3
2
.0
2
.2
.1
.3
.8
.3
-1.7
-1.5
-2.4
0
-.1
1.7
1.3
.1
.1
9
— 9
.1
3.6
4.1
4.8
5.4
4.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.0
Change, month to month
1996- N'ov
Dec
1997:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mav
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
N'ov
9
,.
1
Includes
2
2
.1
9
9
9
'.3
9
9
.4
.3
.1
_9
'.3
Q
]9
.1
o
-.6
.6
.1
.6
.4
.1
-.7
-i!o
items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., excluded beginning 1983.
24
O
--)
9
— .5
.6
.3
.9
0.3
.6
__ 2
— 1
.1
-.4
-.8
.3
.1
9
3
o"
.1
0
-.1
-.1
.1
-.1
0
_ 2
-.1
— 9
4.S
1.7
— .5
-2.1
' 9
9
3.3
2
2.3
_2
.1
2
.1
1.0
'3
9
2.0
9
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3.6
3.3
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.3
2.8
2.5
1.8
1.5
.8
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.2
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.8
2.0
2.1
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.2
22
2.2
2.1
1.8
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
In November, prices received and prices paid by farmers were both unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
110
110
100
100
PRICES RECEIVED
90
90
80
80
IIII
lull
Hiilillll
RATIO-^
RATIO u
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
I I IIIM I1 I
1989
1991
1990
1992
1993
1995
1994
J/ RATIO Of INDEX Of PUCES RECEIVED TO INDEX Of PUCES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of AGUOjlTURE
1996
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1990-92=100; not seasonally adjusted]
Prices received by farmers
Period
All farm
products
Prices paid by farmers
Livestock and
products
Crops
All commodities,
services, interest,
taxes, and1wage
rates
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
Production
items
Ratio3
1990
1991 .
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
89
99
104
104
100
98
101
100
102
112
86
104
109
103
101
101
102
105
112
126
91
93
100
105
99
97
100
95
92
99
87
91
96
99
100
101
104
106
110
115
87
92
97
99
100
101
102
105
109
114
87
90
95
99
100
101
103
106
109
115
102
108
108
105
99
97
97
94
93
98
1996: Nov
Dec
110
110
117
116
102
103
115
115
114
114
114
115
96
96
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
108
105
108
107
108
108
107
108
107
107
107
116
113
118
116
117
119
115
117
114
115
115
98
98
99
100
100
98
100
99
99
97
98
116
116
117
117
117
117
116
116
116
116
116
115
116
117
117
117
116
116
115
116
115
115
115
115
116
117
117
117
116
116
116
115
114
93
91
91
91
92
92
92
93
92
92
92
1987
1988
1989
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest,
taxes, ami wage rates.
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
M2 and M3 grew at a faster pace in November than in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
^ 5,600
5,200
.-•r
"
4,800
r"
4,400
BILLIOt SS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
5,600
5,200
4,800
•MOO
4,000
1
_.-
4,000
\
M3
3,600
3,600
^
3,200
\
--"
3,200
M2
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
~"~—
—^\
800
"
"-^—
,
•" •
' ^^
*"
^
Ml
800
!
600
1989
1992
1991
1990
1993
1994
1995
1
1996
"AVERAGES OF DAB.Y TOJRES; SEASONM1.Y ADJUSJHJ
SOURCE: BOARD OF G<UVHNORSOFTHEraetALR£SBM5YSreM
!
600
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVKBIS
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally ac\justed]
Ml
Period
19871988:
1989:
19901991:
19921993:
19941995:
19961996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
Julv
Sept
Oct r
Nov
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable deposits (OCDs)
749.7
787.0
794.2
825.8
897.3
1,025.0
1,129.8
1,150.7
1,129.0
1,081.1
1,080.3
1,080.1
1,081.1
1,079.7
1,080.7
1,075.4
1,065.3
1,062.8
1,063.1
1,062.1
1.069.6
1.060.8
1,057.4
1,064.0
M2
M3
Ml plus retail
MMMF balances,
savings deposits
(including
MMDAs), and
small time deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
EPs, Eurodollars, and
institutiononly MMMF
balances
2,832.7
2,996.3
3,160.9
3,279.5
3,379.6
3,434.0
3,486.6
3,502.1
3,655.0
3,819.3
3,779.6
3,798.3
3,819.3
3,834.7
3,850.0
3,865.5
3,883.3
3,880.9
3,894.4
3,905.3
3,940.5
3,960.0
3,975.8 •
3,998.8
1
Consists of outstanding: credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfmancial sectors; datafromflowof funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at a simple annual rate.
26
3,672.5
3,912.9
4,065.9
4,125.9
4,180.4
4,190.4
4,254.4
4,327.3
4,592.5
4,918.0
4,849.6
4,876.1
4,918.0
4,940.1
4,977.3
5,008.7
5,047.8
5,054.2
5,073.7
5,117.4
5,168.9
5,209.9
5,245.0
5,293.2
L
Debt
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
Debt of
domestic
nonfmancial
sectors
(monthly
average of
adjacent
month-end
levels) 1
4,339.9
4,663.5
4,892.8
4,976.6
5,006.2
5,078.0
5,167.8
5,308.4
5,697.6
6,069.3
'6,005.1
6,038.5
6,069.3
6,083.9
'6,131.6
'6.176.0
'6,233.0
'6,254.5
'6,280.3
'6,315.1
'6,380.8
'6,426.0
P 6,452.5
Percent change from year
or 6
months earlier2
Ml
'8,659.9
'9,429.2
'10,150.8
'10,823,9
'11,298.2
11,837.3
'12,457.0
'13,072.0
'13,768.0
'14,483.0
'14,372.2
'14,434.0
'14,483.0
3.5
5.0
.9
4.0
8.7
14.2
10.2
1.8
-1.9
-4.2
-7.7
-66
-6.2
'14,523.9
'14,581.7
'14,643.4
'14,713.8
'14,759.0
'14,787.2
'14,838.9
'14,891.1
'14,944.8
" 15,007.8
-5.3
-3.5
-33
-2.8
-3.2
-3.3
-3.3
-2.1
-2.7
-1.5
.2
NOTE. — See p. 27 for components,
^^ rf (^.^ors of the Pedera| ft.xr.-e System.
Sovrtx.
M2
3.6
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.1
1.6
1.5
.4
4.4
4.5
3.0
3.9
4.2
4.6
4.8
5.1
5.5
4.3
3.9
3.7
4.7
4.9
4.8
6.1
M3
5.3
6.5
3.9
1.5
1.3
.2
1.5
1.7
6.1
7.1
6.1
6.2
7.0
7.2
7.9
8.0
8.2
7.3
6.3
7.2
7.7
8.0
7.8
9.5
Debt
'9.5
'8.9
7.7
6.6
4.4
4.8
5.2
4.9
5.3
5.2
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.4
4.5
'4.6
'4.8
'4.5
'4.2
'4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Currency
Period
1987:
19881989:
1990:
199119921993:
19941995:
1996:
Demand
deposits
196.8
212.3
222.7
246.8
267.3
292.9
322.2
354.4
372.6
395.2
390.2
392.5
395.2
397.0
400.5
402.4
403.7
406.1
407.7
410.2
412.1
415.4
418.0
421.9
Dee
Dec
Dec . .
Dec
Dec
Dec . . .
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1996: Oct
Nov . .. .
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct'
Nov
286.8
286.8
279.3
277.4
289.6
339.5
385.2
384.1
391.1
402.6
398.4
402.2
402.6
401.6
404.3
403.1
395.6
395.7
397.2
396.4
402.0
390.6
386.4
391.0
Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)
259.5
280.9
285.3
293.9
332.5
384.4
414.5
403.8
356.5
274.8
283.2
276.8
274.8
272.5
267.3
261.5
257.7
252.8
250.1
247.2
247.2
246.7
244.8
243.0
Money market
mutual fund
balances
Retail1
224.6
245.9
321.7
357.1
371.9
353.5
354.9
384.3
455.2
521.5
512.0
515.2
521.5
525.7
530.6
538.3
548.1
543.9
548.0
552.5
567.0
578.3
581.8
588.0
Savings
deposits,
including
money
market
Instideposit
tution2 accounts
only (MMDAs)
92.0
92.3
110.3
138.0
185.5
207.5
209.5
198.5
246.9
299.3
288.1
292.0
299.3
296.3
305.4
311.8
311.6
311.6
318.9
324.1
329.2
338.9
345.3
346.4
1
937.4
926.3
893.7
923.8
1,045.0
1,187.3
1,219.2
1,149.6
1,137.1
1,271.0
1,246.3
1,259.0
1,271.0
1,282.5
1,290.5
1,304.3
1,321.1
1,320.9
1,325.4
1,329.9
1,341.4
1,356.7
1,370.2
1,380.2
Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000.
in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more.
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less
than $100,000 ami more than $100,000, respectively.
2
Balances
3
Small
denomination
time
deposits3
Overnight
and
Large
term
denom- repurination
chase
time deposits3 agreements
(RPs)
(net)
921.0
1,037.1
1,151.4
1,172.8
1,065.4
868.3
782.6
817.5
933.7
945.7
941.0
943.9
945.7
946.8
948.2
947.4
948.9
953.3
957.9
960.9
962.5
'964.3
966.5
966.6
467.0
518.3
541.5
480.9
416.5
353.4
333.4
363.1
419.8
491.5
480.9
483.4
491.5
493.3
500.1
509.1
522.1
523.6
533.0
551.1
557.2
570.9
574.6
581.4
Overnight
and
term
Eurodollars
(net)
Savings
bonds
172.6 108.2 100.6
189.0 117.0
109.4
158.0
95.2 117.5
138.8
88.7 126.0
119.5
79.3 137.9
128.6
67.0 156.6
158.6
66.4 171.5
182.9
80.8 180.2
182.1
88.7 184.8
194.1 113.9
187.0
196.0 105.1
187.1
195.3 107.1
187.0
194.1
113.9
187.0
198.3 117.5
186.7
202.1 119.7 186.4
200.6 121.7
186.3
204.1 126.6 186.2
204.5 133.5 186.2
198.7 128.8 186.3
207.1 129.8 186.4
208.6 133.4 186.5
205.7 '134.4 186.5
217.6 131.6 P 186.5
233.5 133.1
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Bankers'
acceptances
249.5
266.8
324.0
334.1
328.8
344.7
340.5
383.0
469.9
456.5
44.5
40.2
40.7
36.1
23.8
20.8
14.8
14.0
11.2
12.2
'476.7
480.0
456.5
436.1
'437.7
'441.6
'448.4
'457.1
'451.7
'431.5
'448.2
'453.1
P 438.8
12.1
12.2
12.2
11.9
12.7
13.5
12.8
13.1
12.6
12.9
13.3
'13.0
"13.2
Commercial
paper
272.7
334.3
344.6
354.4
335.2
365.5
386.6
403.9
439.3
495.5
479.6
483.2
495.5
509.1
517.5
525.9
537.8
543.9
555.9
566.8
563.9
'563.5
*• 568.9
NOTE.—Travelers chocks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but art; not
shown here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures'; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal
Reserve (NSA)
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total
1987:
19881989:
19901991:
199219931994:
199519961996:
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov . . .
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
"™
July
Seot
Oct'
Nov
1
. .
.
38,895
40,428
40,522
41,797
45,563
54,383
60,545
59,404
56,386
50,063
49,811
50,063
49,517
49,008
48,312
47,430
47,048
47,108
46,885
47,414
46,666
46,454
46,868
Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures.
Nonborrowed
38,118
38,712
40,257
41,471
45,371
54,260
60,463
59,195
56,129
49,908
49,597
49,908
49,472
48,966
48,155
47,170
46,805
46,741
46,476
46,816
46,229
46,184
46,715
Nonborrowed
plus
extended
credit
38,601
39,957
40,277
41,494
45,371
54,260
60,463
59,195
56,129
49,908
49,597
49,908
49,472
48,966
48,155
47,170
46,805
46,741
46,476
46,816
46,229
46,184
46,715
Required
37,849
39,381
39,600
40,132
44,584
53,228
59,482
58,236
55,109
48,639
48,776
48,639
48,293
47,977
47,151
46,420
45,808
45,828
45,683
46,161
45,371
45,058
45,248
Monetary
base
239,799
256,905
267,625
293,190
317,403
351,347
386,880
418,484
434,523
452,669
449,365
452,669
454,137
456,284
457,623
458,235
459,602
461,401
464,212
466,456
'469,353
472,022
476,487
Total
777
1,716
265
326
192
124
82
209
257
155
214
155
45
42
156
261
243
367
409
598
438
270
153
Seasonal
Extended
credit
93
130
84
76
38
18
31
100
40
68
109
68
483
1,244
20
23
1
1
0
0
0
0
19
21
37
88
173
243
330
385
368
227
115
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.3 percent in November; commercial and industrial loans also
rose 0.3 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
4,400
4,000
3,600
3,200
2,800
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
4,400
4,000
3,600
3,200
_ ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
-V
800
800
400
400
OTHER SECURITIES
200
200
160 I I M I I I l l l l i
1989
M I II 1 I
1990
I I M I I [ I I I1 M I I I 1 I 1 I I i
1992
1991
160
I M IIII I NI
1993
1995
1994
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted1
Loans and leases in bank credit
Securities in bank credit
Total
bank
credit
Period
1996- Novr
Dee
2,435.5
2,609.2
2,754.6
2,859.0
2,958.4
3,118.3
3,332.5
3,616.2
3,769.9
3,742.4
3,769.9
1997- Jan rr
Peb
Mar'
Apr rr
May r
Juner
Julv
Aug r
Sepf
Octr
Nov
3,803.2
3,839.2
3,858.3
3,897.4
3,901.9
3,922.1
3,957.4
3,971.0
3,996.0
4,031.0
4,075.7
1988198919901991-
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
1992- Dec
19931994:
19951996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec'
..
Total
securities
U.S.
Governmeitt
securities
562.2
585.1
634.9
745.8
843.0
917.6
951.9
996.0
989.2
979.9
989.2
1,004.5
1,020.1
1,013.7
1,032.6
1,013.5
1,009.6
1,031.1
1,024.9
1,031.5
1,045.7
1,081.0
367.4
401.0
457.0
566.1
666.2
732.7
730.6
707.9
705.4
705.6
705.4
706.3
703.4
707.7
722.2
721.9
724.8
726.5
715.4
724.2
731.7
745.5
Real estate
Total loans CommerOther
cial and
and
securities
industrial
leases 2
194.9
184.2
177.9
179.7
176.8
184.9
221.2
288.1
283.9
274.3
283.9
298.2
316.6
306.0
310.3
291.6
284.8
304.5
309.5
307.3
314.0
335.5
Revolving
home
equity
Consumer
Security
Other
Other
1,873.3
2,024.1
2,119.7
2,113.2
2,115.4
2,200.7
2,380.6
2,620.2
2,780.7
2,762.5
2,780.7
607.6
638.8
641.1
619.6
596.2
586.6
646.0
718.2
782.2
773.9
782.2
675.2
770.3
856.3
880.6
901.5
941.5
1,003.4
1,079.9
1,129.0
1,122.6
1,129.0
40.0
50.2
62.3
69.6
73.5
73.0
75.3
79.1
84.8
83.7
84.8
635.2
720.1
794.0
811.0
828.0
868.4
928.1
1,000.8
1,044.3
1,038.8
1,044.3
2,798.7
2,819.1
2,844.6
2,864.9
2,888.5
2,912.4
2,926.4
2,946.1
2,964.5
2,985.3
2,994.7
784.5
793.2
797.7
803.5
808.4
813.8
817.0
825.6
837.7
844.5
847.2
1,135.7
1,141.1
1,154.7
1,168.2
1,179.2
1,189.5
1,198.4
1,205.7
1,214.2
1,219.6
1,225.6
85.2
85.9
87.3
89.2
90.4
91.9
93.2
94.3
95.5
96.4
97.3
1,050.5
1,055.2
1,067.4
1,079.1
1,088.8
1,097.6
1,105.3
1,111.4
1,118.7
1,123.2
1,128.3
1
Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment
companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities.
28
Total
357.2
377.7
383.2
366.4
358.9
391.2
452.4
496.5
521.0
520.5
521.0
521.8
520.5
517.9
515.1
516.5
517.7
517.6
518.8
515.3
509.4
510.0
40.7
41.5
45.4
55.4
65.6
90.3
79.1
86.6
78.5
192.6
195.7
193.9
191.3
193.3
191.3
199.7
239.0
270.0
76.9
78.5
268.6
270.0
81.3
82.8
87.3
89.4
88.3
92.6
93.5
93.3
94.5
104.3
97.5
275.3
281.4
286.8
288.7
296.1
298.8
299.9
302.8
302.9
307.5
314.3
3
Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (KPs) with, and loans to
commercial banks in the United States.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svsteni.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses
Sources
Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
External
Credit market funds
Period
Internal l
Total
Total
Securities
and mortgages
Total
Total
648.0
852.3
744.7
593.9
491.3
601.4
701.9
791.4
980.8
1,036.5
877.0
939.9
1,035.4
1,070.9
1,050.0
1,040.4
996.1
1,059.4
1,005.3
1,083.1
1,014.6
1987'
1988'
1989'
1990'
1991'
1992'
1993'
1994'
1995'
1996'
1995: I'
II'
IV'
1996- I'
II'
Ill'
IV
1997: I'
II'
HIP
273.9
443.7
347.4
183.5
67.1
161.3
217.9
241.6
403.3
388.6
338.2
383.0
441.9
450.2
430.0
402.4
345.6
376.3
328.8
396.5
319.2
374.1
408.6
397.3
410.4
424.2
440.1
484.0
549.8
577.5
647.9
538.8
556.9
593.5
620.7
620.0
638.0
650.5
683.1
676.5
686.6
695.4
38.8
8.3
-25.4
-12.5
81.5
76.5
95.4
-1.0
43.4
15.8
49.6
63.9
-.4
60.6
-3.5
97.4
-68.2
37.6
7.0
29.2
86.8
80.8
101.4
67.0
55.4
-35.5
66.6
70.4
90.4
155.4
83.7
203.6
203.3
68.1
146.5
58.1
172.6
65.4
38.6
111.2
115.0
180.4
1
Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed
capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment.
in the"'?!'1' °f "* liabil'tieS>
trad6 debt> PenSi n 6uid liabilities and direct foreign investment
°
'
Loans and
short-term
paper
42.0
93.1
92.4
67.9
-117.0
-9.9
-25.0
91.4
112.0
67.9
154.0
139.4
68.5
85.9
61.6
75.2
133.6
1.0
104.2
85.8
93.6
Other 2
193.2
342.3
280.4
128.1
102.6
94.7
147.5
151.2
248.0
305.0
134.6
179.6
373.8
303.6
371.9
229.9
280.1
337.8
217.6
281.5
138.8
Capita!
expenditures3
Increase in
financial
assets
354.3
360.4
389.9
382.7
368.8
382.3
445.6
511.6
568.5
593.5
571.5
561.3
584.6
556.6
559.7
575.6
610.7
628.1
648.5
705.5
676.2
588.9
743.3
623.4
498.0
498.6
549.8
802.9
789.9
976.7
1,022.9
838.6
961.9
1,002.6
1,103.5
1,033.2
938.9
1,071.5
1,048.0
980.9
1,059.6
994.5
59.2
108.9
121.3
96.0
-7.4
51.6
-101.1
1.4
4.1
13.6
38.3
-22.1
32.8
-32.6
16.9
101.6
-75.5
11.4
24.5
23.4
20.1
234.6
382.9
233.5
115.3
129.8
167.5
357.3
278.3
408.2
429.4
267.1
400.6
418.0
546.9
473.5
363.3
460.8
419.9
332.4
354.1
318.3
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights from
U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER CREDIT
[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1
Consumer credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total
1987: Dec'
1988: Dec'3
1989- Deer
1990: Dec'
1991- Dec'
1992- Dec'
1993- Dec'
1994- Dee' ....
1995: Dec'
1996- Dec'
1996- Oct'
Nov'
Dec'
1997- Jan'
Feb' .
Mar'
Apr'
Mav'
June' ..
July'
Aue'
Sept'
OctP
676.3
719.0
779.0
789.3
777.2
779.9
838.6
959.7
1,094.2
1,179.9
1,177.3
1,179.5
1,179.9
1,189.7
1,195.4
1,197.3
1,206.2
1,209.5
1,211.7
1,215.6
1,221.7
1,222.4
1,233.1
Automobile
Revolving
266.1
285.3
290.8
283.5
263.4
262.7
288.0
327.9
364.2
392.4
391.4
390.4
392.4
393.4
393.8
392.6
396.5
397.5
399.8
402.6
401.9
403.7
407.9
1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for montlily data, change from preceding month.
2
Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., plus noninstallment credit.
3
Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December
1988 and subsequent months.
160.9
184.6
211.2
238.6
263.7
278.2
309.9
365.5
443.0
499.2
490.6
495.0
499.2
505.3
509.3
509.5
512.4
514.3
516.2
520.2
523.6
526.2
529.7
4
Other2
249.4
249.2
277.0
267.2
250.1
239.1
240.7
266.4
287.0
288.3
295.4
294.1
288.3
291.0
292.3
295.2
297.3
297.7
295.8
292.8
296.3
292.5
295.5
Total
30.0
42.7
(4)
10.3
-12.1
2.7
58.7
121.1
134.5
85.7
6.6
2.2
.4
9.8
5.7
1.9
8.9
3.3
2.2
3.9
6.1
.7
10.7
Automobile
19.0
19.2
(4)
-7.3
-20.1
-.7
25.3
39.9
36.3
28.2
1.5
-1.0
2.0
1.0
.4
-1.2
3.9
1.0
2.3
2.8
-.7
1.8
4.2
Revolving
19.7
23.7
(4)
27.4
25.1
14.5
31.7
55.6
77.5
56.2
5.3
4.4
4.2
6.1
4.0
.2
2.9
1.9
1.9
4.0
3.4
2.6
3.5
Other 2
-8.6
-.2
(4)
-9.8
-17.1
-11.0
1.6
25.7
20.6
1.3
-.2
-1.3
-5.8
2.7
1.3
2.9
2.1
.4
-1.9
-3.0
3.5
-3.8
3.0
Because of breaks in series, net change not available.
Note.—Data reflect updated seasonal adjustment factors as well as a change in estimation
procedure. See Federal Reserve release G.19 Consumer Credit dated December 5, 1997.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Overall, interest rates fell in December.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
PERCENT PER ANNUM
12
12
10
10
— ~\
\
CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)
'"^'\
^-~\
""^
8
r—x
/
y
S
'•— -
b
J
6
_'
/
X,
a
V.
\ *
"' \ *\
^^^' /
/
X
~"
N
- -'N^
^
6
TREASURY
BIUS •'
.->'r
•i
4
/H
T^X^
DISC OUNT
Rl VTE
2
J
2
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK
0
4j 1 1 II
1 1 M 11
1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 I I M I 1
,,,,,1
1989
1991
1990
1992
IMM,
I 1 1 E1 1 1 1 1 M
1993
1994
1995
1996
1 M 1 1 t M M |h
0
1997
COUNCIL OF SCONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasuiy security yields
Constant maturities2
Period
3-month
bills (new
issues) l
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
. ..
May
June
July
Aus
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec?
Week ended:
1997: Dec 6
13
20
27
....
....
....
....
1
3-year
10-year
30-year
Highgrade
municipal
bonds
(Standard
&
Poor's) a
30
Aaa
bonds
(Moody's)
Prime
commercial
paper,
6
months '
Discount
rate (N.Y.
F.R.
Bank)4
Prime rate
charged by
banks •»
Federal
funds5
rate
5.82
6.69
8.12
7.51
5.42
3.45
3.02
4.29
5.51
5.02
4.87
5.05
5.00
5.14
5.17
5.13
4.92
5.07
5.13
4.97
4.95
5.15
5.16
7.68
8.26
8.55
8.26
6.82
5.30
4.44
6.27
6.25
5.99
5.91
6.16
6.03
6.38
6.61
6.42
6.24
6.00
6.06
5.98
5.84
5.76
5.74
8.39
8.85
8.49
8.55
7.86
7.01
5.87
7.09
6.57
6.44
6.30
6.58
6.42
6.69
6.89
6.71
6.49
6.22
6.30
6.21
6.03
5.88
5.81
8.59
8.96
8.45
8.61
8.14
7.67
6.59
7.37
6.88
6.71
6.55
6.83
6.69
6.93
7.09
6.94
6.77
6.51
6.58
6.50
6.33
6.11
5.99
7.73
7.76
7.24
7.25
6.89
6.41
5.63
6.19
5.95
5.75
5.62
5.72
5.63
5.78
5.88
5.71
5.60
5.41
5.47
5.38
5.37
5.38
5.24
9.38
9.71
9.26
9.32
8.77
8.14
7.22
7.97
7.59
7.37
7.20
7.42
7.31
7.55
7.73
7.58
7.41
7.14
7.22
7.15
7.00
6.87
6.77
6.85
7.68
8.80
7.95
5.85
3.80
3.30
4.93
5.93
5.42
5.44
5.48
5.42
5.60
5.79
5.78
5.69
5.60
5.59
*
*
*
*
5.66
6.20
6.93
6.98
5.45
3.25
3.00
3.60
5.21
5.02
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.21
9.32
10.87
10.01
8.46
6.25
6.00
7.15
8.83
8.27
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
6.66
7.57
9.21
8.10
5.69
3.52
3.02
4.21
5.83
5.30
5.29
5.25
5.19
5.39
5.51
5.50
5.56
5.52
5.54
5.54
5.50
5.52
5.47
5.11
5.15
5.07
5.30
5.79
5.78
5.69
5.71
5.86
5.87
5.77
5.74
6.04
6.07
5.96
5.90
5.29
5.24
5.23
5.18
6.81
6.84
6.74
6.69
*
*
*
*
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
5.58
5.40
5.66
5.44
Bank-discount basis.
to constant maturities by the Treasury
Yields on the more actively traded issues a
Department.
3
Weekly data an; Wednesday figures.
4
Average effective rate for year, opening and closing rate for month and week.
5
Daily effective rate; average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at these rates.
2
Corporate
Newhome
mortgage
yields
(FHFB)6
9.31
9.19
10.13
10.05
9.32
8.24
7.20
7.49
7.87
7.80
7.79
7.81
7.78
7.88
8.03
8.01
7.95
7.78
7.59
7.61
7.54
7.40
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and
charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of JO years.
•Series no longer published by Federal Reserve (FB). See FB release II. 15 Selected Interest
Rote, May 12, 1997.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in December.
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATIO SCALE)
520
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATIO SCALE)
520
480
480
440
440
400
400
360
360
320
320
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)
280
280
240
240
200
200
I M I I M MI
1991
1993
1992
1994
I i j I i i i i ii
1995
1996
1997
PERCENT
20
15
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)
10
5
0
1989
1990
1991
1996
1992
SOUIKI5:NEWYO«STCa<D<CHANGEAM)SIANOAJ<DSFOO«'SCO«PO(iATK>l
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVtSBS
Common stock pricesl
Composite
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Dee . ...
1997: Jan
Feb
Julv
Sept
Oct
Dee?
Week ended:
1997: Dee 6
13
20
27
1
Average
2
Includes
3
. ..
Industrial
Transportation
UtDity
3
Finance
Dow -Jones
industrial
average4
Standard &
Poor's composite index
(194143=10)5
Dividendprice ratio
161.70
149.91
180.02
183.46
206.33
229.01
249.58
254.12
291.15
358.17
391.61
403.58
418.57
416.72
401.00
433.36
457.07
480.94
481.53
489.74
499.25
492.08
504.05
195.31
180.95
216.23
225.78
258.14
284.62
299.99
315.25
367.34
453.98
494.38
509.64
524.30
523.08
506.69
549.65
578.57
610.42
609.54
617.94
625.22
615.57
622.94
140.39
134.12
175.28
158.62
173.99
201.09
242.49
247.29
269.41
327.33
352.28
359.40
364.15
372.87
366.67
395.50
410.94
433.75
439.71
451.63
466.04
453.49
460.81
148.59
143.53
174.87
181.20
185.32
198.91
228.90
209.06
220.30
249.77
257.09
263.91
271.36
264.78
253.18
268.18
280.48
288.51
287.63
291.87
302.83
307.52
324.59
146.48
127.26
151.88
133.26
150.82
179.26
216.42
209.73
238.45
303.89
350.01
361.45
388.75
387.21
364.25
392.32
419.12
441.59
446.93
459.86
476.70
465.29
489.83
2,275.99
2,060.82
2,508.91
2,678.94
2,929.33
3,284.29
3,522.06
3,793.77
4,493.76
5,742.89
6,435.87
6,707.03
6,917.48
6,901.12
6,657.50
7,242.36
7,599.60
7,990.65
7,948.43
7,866.59
7,875.82
7,677.36
7,909.59
286.83
265.79
322.84
334.59
376.18
415.74
451.41
460.33
541.64
670.83
743.25
766.22
798.39
792.16
763.93
833.09
876.29
925.29
927.74
937.02
951.16
938.92
961.54
3.08
3.64
3.45
3.61
3.24
2.99
2.78
2.82
2.56
2.19
2.01
1.95
1.89
1.91
1.98
1.85
1.77
1.66
1.65
1.65
1.61
1.65
1.62
509.85
506.48
503.31
495.31
632.44
627.13
620.86
609.73
468.67
468.31
458.16
447.88
322.83
320.48
325.38
328.93
493.26
492.93
491.42
480.55
8,052.65
7,965.32
7,891.82
7,712.63
976.02
967.25
959.81
940.50
1.59
1.60
1.61
1.67
of daily closing prices.
all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE.
Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility
index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect
the4 doubling.
Includes 30 stocks.
Common stock yields
(percent)«
New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965
except as noted) 2
Period
1997
Earningsprice ratio
5.48
8.01
7.42
6.47
4.79
4.22
4.46
5.83
6.09
5.24
5.23
5.31
4.58
5
Includes 500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's.
6
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS. OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 2 months of fiscal 1998, there was a deficit of $53.3 billion, compared with a deficit of $77.7 billion
a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,800
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS J
1,700
BILUONS OF DOLLARS
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,600
OUTLAYS-
1,500
1,500
1,400
1,400
1,300
1,300
1,200
1,200
1,100
RECEIPTS-
1,100
1,000
1,000
900
900
800
800
-200
-400
-400
1989
1991
1990
1992
1993
J' INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND Off -BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFHCE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total
Fiscal year or period
1980
1981
1982
..
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 ..
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 * ....
1997 ' ....
. . .
1998 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 2
months:2
Fiscal year 1997
Fiscal year 1998
Receipts
Outlays
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
-72.7
-74.0
- 120.1
-208.0
- 185.7
-221.7
-238.0
-169.3
- 194.0
-205.2
-277.8
-321.6
-340.5
-300.4
-258.8
-226.3
-174.0
-103.6
- 145.0
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
186.2
200.2
213.4
241.5
263.7
281.7
293.9
302.4
311.9
335.0
351.1
367.5
392.0
411.8
-76.0
-54.4
53.8
57.6
991.2
1,032.0
1,055.0
1,091.3
1,154.4
1,258.6
1,351.8
1,452.8
1,579.0
1,631.6
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.9
946.5
990.5
1,004.2
1,064.5
1,143.7
1,253.2
1,324.4
1,381.7
1,409.4
1,46L7
1,515.7
1,560.2
1,601.6
1,689.9
-73.8
-79.0
- 128.0
-207.8
-185.4
-212.3
-221.2
-149.8
- 155.2
-152.5
-221.2
-269.4
-290.4
-255.0
-203.1
-163.9
- 107.4
-22.6
-58.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
548.0
569.0
641.0
667.8
727.5
750.3
761.2
788.9
842.5
923.6
1,000.8
1,085.3
1,187.0
1,219.8
476.6
543.1
594.4
661.3
686.1
769.7
807.0
810.3
861.8
932.8
1,028.1
1,082.7
1,129.3
1,142.8
1,182.4
1,227.1
1,259.3
1,290.6
1,364.8
197.5
218.4
275.2
271.7
-77.7
— 53.3
143.7
160.8
219.6
215.2
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
734.2
769.3
854.4
909.3
> Data from September 1997 Monthly Treasury Statement.
Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1998 are from Uvl-Sessior, Review of the 1998 liuilget, issued September 5, 1997. Other data (except as noted) are from Butlget of the United States Government,
Fiscal Year 1998, issued February 6, 1997.
2
32
Federal debt (end of
period)
Off-budget
On-budget
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Gross
Federal
Held by
the public
176.8
183.5
193.8
202.7
210.9
225.1
241.7
252.3
266.6
279.4
288.7
300.9
311.0
325.2
-1.1
-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3
9.4
16.7
19.6
38.8
52.8
56.6
52.2
50.1
45.3
55.7
62.4
66.6
81.0
86.6
909.1
994.8
1,137.3
1,371.7
1,564.7
1,817.5
2,120.6
2,346.1
2,601.3
2,868.0
3,206.6
3,598.5
4,002.1
4,351.4
4,643.7
4,921.0
5,181.9
5,369.7
5,598.2
709.8
785.3
919.8
1,131.6
1,300.5
1,499.9
1,736.7
1,888.7
2,050.8
2,189.9
2,410.7
2,688.1
2,998.8
3,247.5
3,432.1
3,603.4
3,733.0
3,771.1
3,871.9
55.6
56.5
-1.7
1.1
5,253.8
5,418.9
3,794.0
3,806.6
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 2 months of fiscal 1998, receipts were $20.9 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $3.5
billion lower.
BILUONS OF DOUARS
800
RECEIPTS^
BIOIONS OF DOUARS
800
500
400
—
CORPORATION
INCOME TAXES
\
1
n
1,5UU
-==
\
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
1
1
.x_
1
1
1
>
OTHER .RECEIPTS
500
4QO
30
°
|
100
|
o
1,500
OUTLAYS'17
1,400
NONDEFENSE
1 200
•"" """
\__
—-•"*""""""""
1 000
„„-•-•"'"
^-"""
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
NATIONAL DEFENSE
400
300
200 xi
400
\
i
I
I
i
300
I
i
i
1
-^NaUDf SON-BUDGET AW Off-BUDGET ITEMS
SOURCES: D6WITMBJT Of 1HE TREASURY AND OfflCE Of MANAGEMENT AND BUOGCT
i
\ 200
COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADVBEHS
[Billions of dollars]
On-budgct and ofT-budgct outlays
On-budgct ami off-budget receipts
Fiscal year or period
Total
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
....
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '
1997'
1998 (estimates) .. . .
Cumulative total, first 2 months:2
Fiscal year 1997 .
Fiscal year 1998
...
734.2
769.3
854.4
909.3
991.2
1,032.0
1,055.0
1,091.3
1,154.4
1,258.6
1,351.8
1,452.8
1,579.0
1,631.6
197.5
218.4
Individual
income
taxes
Corporation
income
taxes
Social
insurance
taxes
and
contributions
National defense
Other
Total
InterDepart- nationment of
al
Defense, affairs
military
Health
Medicare
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.9
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
130.9
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
61.3
334.5
349.0
63.1
392.6
83.9
94.5
401.2
445.7 103.3
93.5
466.9
98.1
467.8
476.0 100.3
509.7 117.5
543.1 140.4
590.2 157.0
656.4 171.8
737.5 182.3
748.6 192.6
265.2
283.9
303.3
334.3
359.4
380.0
396.0
413.7
428.3
461.5
484.5
509.4
539.4
564.8
73.1
73.3
74.6
79.3
82.8
91.5
93.1
101.4
98.9
113.7
120.1
115.1
119.8
125.6
946.5
990.5
1,004.2
1,064.5
1,143.7
1,253.2
1,324.4
1,381.7
1,409.4
1,461.7
1,515.7
1,560.2
1,601.6
1,689.9
252.7
273.4
282.0
290.4
303.6
299.3
273.3
298.4
291.1
281.6
272.1
265.7
270.1
266.4
245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
294.9
289.8
262.4
286.9
278.6
268.6
259.4
253.3
258.3
254.3
16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
9.6
13.8
15.9
16.1
17.2
17.1
16.4
13.5
15.4
14.6
33.5
35.9
40.0
44.5
48.4
57.7
71.2
89.5
99.4
107.1
115.4
119.1
123.4
139.2
65.8
70.2
75.1
78.9
85.0
98.1
104.5
119.0
130.6
144.7
159.9
174.2
190.0
199.5
76.1
81.3
18.4
22.7
275.2
271.7
47.2
44.3
44.9
42.0
4.9
1.7
20.4
21.8
32.5
31.2
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
99.9
107.3
3.2
7.2
1 Data from September 1997 Monthly Treasury Statement.
Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTK.—Data for fiscal 1998 are from Mid-Sfmon Review of tke 1!)!>8 Rtulget, issued September 5, 1997. Other data (except as noted) are from /iuilget of Ike Umlal State* Government,
Pitad Year 1998, issued February 6, 1997.
2
Total
Income Social
security security
Net
interest
Other
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
52.5
68.8
85.0
89.8
111.1
131.3
133.5
125.4
122.2
118.6
128.2 188.6
119.8 198.8
123.3 207.4
129.4 219.3
136.1 232.5
147.1 248.6
170.3 269.0
197.0 287.6
207.3 304.6
214.1 319.6
220.5 335.8
226.0 349.7
230.4 365.3
244.2 383.1
129.5
136.0
138.7
151.8
169.3
184.2
194.5
199.4
198.8
203.0
232.2
241.1
244.1
248.4
131.9
142.3
126.1
139.7
159.3
204.3
225.7
174.7
160.4
174.5
163.4
170.9
163.0
194.5
58.8
61.1
41.6
42.4
31.8
34.3
86.6
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
37.8
35.0
Sources; Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $32.5 billion (annual rate) and
Federal current expenditures rose $6.6 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,800
1,800
SEASONAliY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1,600
^
-
s *"
CURRENT EXPENDITURE S _ . - ~ •f /*
\
_. — ^
|
-
^ ' 1,600
1,400
-
^_jf
1,200
^
_^
"I
/
/
s~ ^
1,400
1,200
„--
--'
1,000
1,000
,800
' -"'
-"
A
/^
1
-
RECEIPTS
800
^s
•~
-
'^
^
600
600
400
400
-
200
200
-
CU (RENTSURPLUSOf DEFICIT (-)
0
0
-200
^
-400
"s— -^^/~ /—•
r^^
1 1 1
i I I
\
1982
1983
1984
\
\
111
1985
i 1 1
1986
i i i
1987
^
~---,
y*-,
V. "N
"^
t i I
i i i
i i i
1988
1989
1990
I I I
1991
-~^r ^^
i ii
1992
\
i
i
1993
"^
-200
I f I
1 11
f I i
I II
1994
1995
1996
1997
-400
CAlfHDAft YEARS
SOURCE: OB'ARTMB'ir OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government receipts
Period
Total
Calendar year:
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993: m
rv
1994- I
TJ
m
rv
1995- I
n
m
rv
1996:
I
II
in
IV
1997: I
II
Ill'
....
1,129.8
1,149.0
1,198.5
1,275.1
1,374.8
1,463.2
1,587.6
1,277.2
1,327.2
1,324.5
1,381.1
1,383.8
1,409.5
1,429.0
1,459.0
1,472.8
1,491.9
1,526.3
1,583.8
1,598.6
1,641.6
1,675.3
1,709.3
1,741.8
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
485.7
476.9
490.8
522.6
562.3
605.8
686.7
527.1
543.4
542.0
574.3
561.6
571.1
581.4
608.2
607.5
626.0
644.9
688.8
695.7
717.5
118.0
109.8
118.6
138.3
156.7
182.1
194.5
135.0
154.5
136.9
153.4
163.4
173.2
179.0
178.7
186.9
183.8
65.1
79.7
81.9
86.9
98.7
93.5
95.8
85.9
93.8
98.2
98.1
99.3
99.0
746.9
767.9
781.9
192.1
197.2
196.7
192.0
204.9
207.7
219.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
94.3
93.8
93.7
92.2
91.7
90.0
91.5
110.2
88.2
92.2
92.4
Federal Government current expenditures
Contributions
for
social
insurance
461.1
482.6
507.1
527.3
557.1
581.8
610.5
529.3
535.5
547.4
555.3
559.5
566.2
574.3
578.3
584.7
589.9
597.6
607.8
614.8
622.0
635.3
641.5
648.2
Total
1,284.5
1,345.0
1,479.4
1,525.7
1,561.4
1,637.6
1,698.1
1,527.8
1,551.9
1,533.5
1,544.3
1,571.4
1,596.4
1,620.6
1,638.5
1,649.3
1,642.0
1,679.9
1,695.4
1,698.2
1,718.8
1,730.8
1,746.0
1,752.6
Consumption
expenditures
426.6
445.9
451.0
447.3
443.2
443.5
451.5
447.0
449.2
442.4
439.2
450.5
440.8
444.8
444.0
449.0
436.3
444.6
453.7
454.0
453.6
458.0
464.2
464.7
Transfer
payments
513.3
522.2
625.1
659.9
683.0
720.9
763.5
661.3
675.5
670.6
676.9
683.8
700.7
709.5
718.0
725.1
731.1
757.6
757.5
761.5
777.3
785.9
791.4
794.5
Grantsin-aid
to
Net
State interest
and
paid
local
governments
132.4
153.4
172.2
185.8
199.2
211.9
218.3
187.3
196.9
194.5
196.2
199.6
206.6
212.2
216.5
210.6
208.5
213.7
223.2
218.7
217.5
219.6
222.5
224.2
179.9
192.7
195.8
192.7
200.0
224.8
227.1
192.9
192.5
189.9
196.6
202.8
210.8
218.8
223.9
227.5
229.0
226.6
223.5
226.6
231.8
228.9
229.8
231.2
Subsidies less
current
surplus
of
Government
enterprises
32.4
30.8
35.1
40.1
35.9
36.4
37.7
39.2
37.8
36.0
35.4
34.8
37.5
35.3
36.1
37.0
37.2
37.4
37.5
37.4
38.5
38.4
38.1
37.9
Less:
Wage
accruals less
disbursements
0.1
-.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
Current
surplus
or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
-154.7
-196.0
-280.9
250 7
-186.7
- 174.4
-110.5
-250.6
.-224.6
-209.0
163 2
-187.6
- 186.8
-191.5
-179.5
- 176.5
- 150.2
-153.6
-111.6
-99.5
-77.1
-55.5
-36.8
-10.8
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted)
Period
United
States
'93.2
'97.4
'99.1
98.9
'97.0
100.0
'103.6
'109.2
'114.5
'118.5
'119.7
'120.6
'120.9
'121.3
'122.1
'122.5
'123.1
'123.3
'123.5
'124.5
'125.2
'125.7
'126.4
127.3
1987
1988
1989
1990 . .
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Oct
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
' '
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
Japan
Canada
Prance
Germany
86.4
93.0
86.4
94.5
97.3
89'.8
99.9 100.9
94.0
104.2 102.4
98.9
106.1 101.2 101.7
100.0 100.0 100.0
95.8
96.2
92.5
97.0 100.0
95.6
100.2 102.0
96.6
102.9
102.4
96.8
106.1 102.4 '96.9
105.2 102.5
97.8
105.2 102.8
97.8
110.5
102.1 '98.3
107.0 103.4
98.7
106.4 103.0
99.1
106.0 106.2 '99.1
110.4
104.7
98.5
107.3 105.4 '100.0
108.6
107.5 '104.1
105.6 107.5
99.6
108.3 '106.4 '98.7
107.7 109.9 100.6
101.6
106.9
106.8
103.2
98.9
100.0
104.5
111.8
115.6
117.6
118.9
120.3
118.8
'120.0
120.5
'120.6
'122.3
'122.5
122.4
'125.0
'124.5
124.1
Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA)
United
Kingdom
Italy
92.4
97.9
100.9
101.1
100.2
100.0
97.6
102.6
108.2
106.4
105.2
105.7
103.7
104.0
107.1
107.7
108.4
108.7
108.8
108.7
109.8
'108.8
110.1
96.6
101.2
103.4
103.1
99.6
100.0
102.2
107.6
110.0
111.2
111.4
112.0
112.5
'112.5
'112.1
'111.8
'112.9
'112.0
'113.7
'114.8
'113.9
'113.8
113.5
United
States1
Canada
113.6
118.3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
156.9
158.3
158.6
158.6
159.1
159.6
160.0
160.2
160.1
160.3
160.5
160.8
161.2
161.6
161.5
118.4
123.2
129.3
135.5
143.1
145.2
147.9
148.2
151.4
153.7
154.4
155.1
155.1
155.4
155.7
156.0
156.0
156.1
156.5
156.5
156.7
156.5
156.7
156.5
Japan
France
104.8 120.9
105.6 124.2
108.1
128.6
111.4
133.0
115.0
137.2
116.9
140.6
118.4
143.5
119.3
145.9
119.1
148.4
119.3 151.5
119.9
152.0
119.5
151.9
119.6
152.1
119.5
152.5
119.3
152.8
119.4
152.9
121.8
152.9
122.0 153.2
122.0 153.2
152.9
121.5
121.6
153.3
122.5 153.6
122.8 '153.6
153.7
Germany
Italy
104.9
106.3
109.2
112.2
116.2
120.9
125.2
128.6
130.8
132.6
133.0
132.9
133.2
133.9
134.4
134.3
134.0
134.6
135.0
135.5
135.8
135.4
135.2
135.3
134.4
141.1
150.4
159.5
169.8
178.8
186.3
193.6
204.0
212.0
213.3
213.9
214.1
214.5
214.7
214.9
215.1
215.7
215.7
215.7
215.7
216.1
216.7
217.3
United
Kingdom
119.7
125.6
135.4
148.2
156.9
162.7
165.3
169.3
175.2
179.4
180.7
180.8
181.4
181.4
182.1
182.6
183.6
184.3
185.1
185.1
186.2
187.2
187.4
187.5
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic
Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis).
Data relate to ail urban consumers.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
PCensus
1
'is (lw
(by
Services
(HOP basis)
Goods: Imports (customs value)
Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)
Balance of trade
(expo
mi
p
i
f
h
' (}
t
\
Census
basis
( y t.mI use category)
1
t
11
end-use
category)
BOP basis
Period
BOP
basis
AutoInCap- moital
Foods, dustive
trial
Total, feeds, sup- goods vehiCensus and
except cles,
plies
2
basis
auto- parts
beverages and
and
mate- moentive
rials
gines
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
exrapt
automotive
HOP
basis
Total,
Census
basis2
Auto- ConInmo- sumer
Capdustive goods
ital
Fowls, trial
feeds, sup- goods vehi- (nonami
plies except cles, food)
auto- parts except
bevand
autoand
erages mate- momoentive
rials
tive
gines
250.2
320.2
362.1
389.3
416.9
440.4
456.8
502.4
575.9
612.1
254.1
322.4
363.8
393.6
421.7
448.2
465.1
512.6
584.7
625.1
24.3
32.3
37.2
35.1
35.7
40.3
40.6
42.0
50.5
55.5
66.7
85.1
99.3
104.4
109.7
109.1
111.8
121.4
146.2
147.7
86.2
109.2
138.8
152.7
166.7
175.9
181.7
205.0
233.0
252.9
24.6
29.3
34.8
37.4
40.0
47.0
52.4
57.8
61.8
65.0
17.7
23.1
36.4
43.3
45.9
51.4
54.7
60.0
64.4
70.1
409.8
447.2
477.4
498.3
491.0
536.5
589.4
668.6
749.4
803.2
406.2
441.0
473.2
495.3
488.5
532.7
580.7
663.3
743.5
795.3
24.8
24.8
25.1
26.6
26.5
27.6
27.9
31.0
33.2
35.7
1996: Oct
Nov
DM:
52.5
53.2
52.1
53.6
54.5
53.4
4.5
5.0
4.4
12.7
12.3
12.5
22.0
22.2
22.1
5.4
5.9
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.0
67.8
68.4
69.8
67.5
68.1
69.6
3.0
3.0
3.2
1997: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept' ....
Oct*
51.7
53.7
57.2
57.2
56.9
57.4
56.7
57.3
56.4
58.0
52.2
54.4
58.1
57.9
57.9
58.2
57.8
58.4
57.5
59.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
4.2
4.3
4.6
12.1
12.7
13.7
13.5
13.4
13.9
13.2
13.4
13.1
13.2
21.6
22.7
24.7
25.0
24.8
24.5
24.9
24.9
24.8
25.2
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.2
5.9
6.3
6.3
6.2
5.8
6.4
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.7
69.8
70.4
72.0
72.7
73.2
72.6
73.6
73.9
74.9
75.0
69.6
70.0
70.6
71.7
72.3
71.7
73.4
73.6
74.6
74.8
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.3
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
5
2
Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.
Total includes "other" xports or imports, not shown separately.
Exports
Imports
Goods,
Census
basis
Goods
Services
Goods
and
services
84.5
111.0
118.3 101.4
132.3 113.3
143.2 116.4
131.6 120.7
138.6 134.3
145.6 152.4
162.1 184.4
181.8 221.4
204.5 229.1
85.2
87.7
86.1
87.3
85.7
91.8
102.4
118.3
123.8
128.9
88.7
95.9
102.9
105.7
108.0
122.7
134.0
146.3
159.9
171.0
98.6
111.0
127.1
147.8
164.2
177.2
186.7
197.2
218.7
236.8
92.3
100.0
104.2
120.0
121.2
120.3
126.4
135.5
147.0
156.6
- 152.1
-118.5
-109.4
-101.7
-66.7
-84.5
-115.6
- 150.6
- 158.8
- 170.2
- 159.6
-127.0
-115.2
-109.0
-74.1
-96.1
-132.6
-166.2
-173.6
-191.2
6.2
11.1
23.0
27.8
43.0
56.9
60.3
61.8
71.7
80.1
-153.4
-115.9
- 92.3
-81.2
-31.0
-39.2
-72.3
-104.4
-101.9
-111.0
18.3
17.6
18.7
18.9
19.3
19.6
10.2
11.2
10.8
15.0
14.7
15.1
20.6
20.8
20.3
13.2
13.2
13.2
-13.9
- 13.6
-16.1
-15.3
-15.2
-17.7
7.4
7.5
7.1
-7.9
-7.7
-10.6
17.9
17.6
18.0
17.6
17.9
17.6
17.5
17.9
18.3
18.4
19.5
19.4
20.4
20.7
21.0
21.3
21.6
22.1
22.0
22.4
11.8
12.1
11.7
11.4
11.6
11.6
12.3
11.8
11.8
11.3
15.1
15.3
14.9
16.2
16.1
15.7
16.1
16.0
16.7
16.6
20.2
20.6
21.0
'21.2
'21.1
'21.0
'21.1
'21.6
21.7
22.0
13.6
13.7
13.9
'13.8
'13.9
'14.1
'14.0
'14.1
14.4
14.6
-17.4
-15.7
-12.4
- 13.8
-14.5
-13.5
- 15.6
- 15.3
-17.1
-15.8
-18.1
-16.8
-14.9
-15.5
-16.4
-15.2
-16.8
-16.6
-18.5
-17.1
6.5
6.9
7.0
'7.4
'7.2
'6.9
'7.1
'7.5
7.3
7.4
-11.6
-9.9
-7.8
'-8.1
'-9.2
-8.3
'-9.7
'-9.1
-11.2
-9.7
NOTE.—HOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data
shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Kcoriornic Analysis).
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter of 1997, the goods deficit rose to $51.5 billion, from $47.1 billion in the second quarter. The
current account deficit rose to $42.2 billion, from $37.9 billion in the second quarter.
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS*
BlUJONSOf DOLLARS*
- -45
-50
-50
-55
-55
1987
* SEASONAUY AQJUSIH)
SOUKE DSHSTMENT Of COMMERCE
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (-)]
Goods 1
Services
Investment income
Net
Period
Exports
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995:
I
II
in
IV
1996: I
II
in
IV
1997:
I
II'
in?
Imports
Net
balance
Net
military
transactions 23
travel
and
transportation
receipts
Other
services,
net
Balance
on
goods
and
services
Receipts
on U.S.
assets
abroad
Balance
on goods, Unilatera
services, transfers
and
net"
income
Payments
on foreign
assets in
U.S.
Net
9.209 — 144 144 — 23 90S
13 644 — 102.256 — 25 98£
15.020 - 77.268 — 26,96;
23 921 — 57.304 — 34 588
5 122
20.249 — 10,779
18,016 — 21.191 — 35 192
19.668 — 52,634 — 38 137
9,723 — 94,693 — 38 845
6,808 — 95,049 — 34 046
2,824 — 108.216 — 39 9gg
Balance
on
current
account
250.208
320.230
362,120
389,307
416,913
440,352
456,832
502,398
575J871
612,069
— 409,765
-447J189
-477,365
— 498,337
-490,981
- 536,458
- 589^441
-668.590
— 749,431
- 803^239
-159,557
-126,959
-115,245
- 109,030
-74,068
-96,106
- 132,609
-166,192
- 173,560
-191,170
- 3,844
— 6,320
- 6^749
-7.599
-5,274
— 1,44£
1^269
1,874
3,866
3,786
-7,613
-2,59]
4,043
8,002
17,032
19,974
19J64
16,519
21,197
24,713
17,661
19,969
25^662
27,401
31,284
38,373
39,274
43,383
46,640
51,631
- 153,353
— 115,900
-92,288
-81,225
-31,027
-39,207
— 72,301
— 104.416
— 101,857
— 111.040
100 511
129,366
153,659
163,324
141,408
125,852
129,844
154,510
196,880
206,400
— 91,302
-115,722
-138^639
-139,402
— 121,159
-107,836
— 110,176
— 144,787
— 190,072
— 203,577
138,389
143,181
145,360
148,941
-182.790
- 190,739
-188,180
-187,722
-44,401
-47,558
-42,820
-38,781
722
984
4,312
4,333
5,755
6,796
11,062
11.442
11,892
12,240
- 28,305
- 30,799
-23,884
-18,874
47,218
50,303
49,130
50,230
-45,171
-47,080
-49,531
-48,290
2,047
3.223
-401
1,940
-26.258
-27,576
-24,285
- 16,934
-8,451
-8,128
- 8,847
- 8,620
- 34,709
-35.704
-33,132
-25,554
150,048
153,411
150,764
157,846
- 192,973
-200,973
-203,257
-206,036
-42,925
-47,562
- 52,493
-48,190
12,707
12.751
12.626
13,550
- 24,539
-27,779
-32,516
-26,198
49,277
50,188
51,893
55,043
-47,216
-49,305
- 53,263
- 53,793
2,061
1,295
5,194
5,818
6,559
7,147
- 1,370
1,250
-22,478 -10,406
-26,896 -8,689
-33.886 -8,947
-24,948 -11,926
- 32,884
-35.585
- 42,833
-36,874
162,527
171,411
170.579
-212.314
-218,545
-222,128
-49,787
-47,134
-51,549
1,048
1,040
6.195
6,413
6,788
13,855
14,028
14,090
- 29,300
- 25,645
-29,631
55,269
59,129
60,608
-57,259
- 62,376
- 63,929
-1,990
-3,247
- 3,321
-31,290
-28,892
- 32,952
-8,682
- 8,960
- 9,204
-39,972
-37J852
-42,156
1
1,289
871
485
1,214
792
437
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military.
2
Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports).
36
3
883
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
4
Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs.
See p. 3? for continuattan oftabte.
— 168 053
— 128 245
— 104,231
— 91 892
— 5 657
— 56 383
— 90 771
— 133 538
— 129,095
— 148 184
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $22.8 billion in the third quarter
of 1997, following an increase of $27.9 billion in the second quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported
by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $14.1 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of
$28.1 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS •
200
-80
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/eapit.
)]
Period
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995: I
II
Ill
IV
1996: I
II
Ill
IV
1997: I
II'
HIP
U.S.
official
reserve35
assets
-72,617
9,149
-100,221 -3,912
- 168,744 -25,293
-74,011 -2,158
-57,881
5,763
-68,774
3,901
-194,537 -1,379
-160,516
5,346
-307,207 -9,742
-352,444
6,668
-59,625 -5,318
-110,548 -2,722
-40,679 -1,893
191
-96,356
-70,768
17
-49,698
-523
-77,542
7,489
-154,436
-315
-127,969
4,480
-236
-90,935
-101,564
-730
Other U.S.
Government
assets
1,006
2,967
1,259
2,307
2,911
-1,657
-342
-352
-549
-690
-158
-184
266
-473
-210
-358
162
-284
-21
-268
482
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase/capital inflow ( + )]
U.S.
private
assets
-82,771
-99,275
- 144,710
-74,160
-66,555
-71,018
-192,817
-165,510
-296,916
-358,422
-54,149
- 107,642
-39,052
-96,074
-70,575
-48,817
-85,193
- 153,837
-132,428
-90,431
-101,316
Total
248,383
246,065
224,390
140,992
109,641
168,776
279,671
297,337
451,234
547,555
97,652
122,714
125,839
105,029
88,233
106,114
158,629
194,579
182,238
143,015
169,540
r
> Consists of golil, special drawing rights (SDIts), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
Foreign
official
assets3
Other
foreign
assets
45,387
39,758
8,503
33,910
17,389
40,477
71,753
40,385
110,729
122,354
22,098
37,138
39,585
11,908
52,014
13,154
24,089
33,097
28,891
-5,374
22,498
202,996
206,307
215,887
107,082
92,253
128,299
207,918
256,952
340,505
425,201
75,554
85,576
86,254
93,121
36,219
92,960
134,540
161,482
153,347
148,389
147,042
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special Total (sum
Of which:
drawing
Seasonal
of the items
rights
with
sign
adjustment
(SDKs)
discrepancy
reversed)
-7713
- 17 600
48,585
24,911
-46,103
-43,619
5,637
-3,283
-14931
-46,927
-3,318
23,538
-52,028
16,881
15,419
-20,831
-38,254
-3,269
- 14,297
- 14,228
-25,820
5,658
-775
-6,985
2,106
6,228
-1,076
-7,830
2,669
7,059
-1,713
-8,560
U.S. official
reserve
assets, net5
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
45,798
47,802
74,609
83,316
77,721
71,323
73,442
74,335
85,832
75,089
86,761
90,063
87,152
85,832
84,212
83,455
75,509
75,089
67,222
67,813
67,148
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
Page
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Gross Domestic Product
Real Gross Domestic Product
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
,
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Real Gross Private Domestic Investment
Real Private Fixed Investment by Type
Business Investment and Plans
-.
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Employment Cost Index—Private Industry
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY. CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Consumer Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
P Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
rtft
38
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