Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1989
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101st Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators DECEMBER 1989 (Includes data available as of December 28, 1989) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1989 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan) SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) PETE WILSON (California) CONNIE MACK (Florida) JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res, 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the third quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.2 percent (annual rate) or $79.3 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 3.0 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 3.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 5,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES — 5,200 4,800 4,400 5,200 ^i r - ^^ _ 4,800 — GNP 1 vl CURRENT DOLLA R S ^ - ^ 4,400 ^ ~~ _-- 4,000 4,000 " 3,600 - ^/~-^ .^-~ 111 ,''*' — 3,600 GNP lr>1 1982 DOLLARS 3,200 2,800 2,400 1 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 1 1 1984 — 3,200 — 2,800 1 1 1985 1 1 \ 1986 \ \ 1987 1 1 1988 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 2,400 1 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1 Period Gross national product Personal consumption tures 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 198219831984198519861987: Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales Gross domestic purchases -1 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,524.3 4,880.6 IV IV IV IV IV IV 1988- I n UI IV 1989- I n r m 1 Gross private domestic investment 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.9 78 0 -97.4 -112.6 -73.7 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 396.5 448.6 547.7 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 448.9 493.8 561.2 621.3 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 872.2 926.1 968.9 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.8 294.8 298.0 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 96.0 88.7 86.8 83.3 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465.6 505.7 544.5 587.6 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.8 4,495.0 4,850.0 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,329.0 4,636.8 4,954.3 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 4,107.9 4,297.3 4,665.8 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,083.3 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 749.7 14.1 — 25.8 -67.9 -103.2 - 108.9 — 114.6 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 402.4 482.6 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 511.3 597.2 671.8 676.1 764.5 856.7 888.9 947.5 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 388.1 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 280.7 296.8 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.1 91.3 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 520.1 559.4 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,309.4 4,602.5 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,406.2 4,780.4 4,739.8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 -82.8 74 9 -66.2 70 8 521.6 532.5 556.8 579.7 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 297.4 298.0 296.1 300.5 76.7 79.1 71.4 105.9 571.6 583.0 591.0 604.9 4,709.8 4,809.2 4,882.3 4,998.7 4,822.5 4,913.4 4,993.1 5,088.1 5,113.1 5,201.7 5,281.0 3,381.4 3,444.1 3,508.1 769.6 775.0 779.1 -54.0 -50.6 -45.1 605.6 626.1 628.5 659.6 676.6 673.6 1,016.0 1,033.2 1,038.9 399.0 406.0 402.7 298.7 301.3 307.8 100.4 104.7 94.9 617.0 627.2 636.2 5,085.4 5,174.3 5,253.6 5,167.1 5,252.3 5,326.1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exports and imports of goods and services Gross private domestic investment Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inventories Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales Gioss domestic purchases 1 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2,446.4 2,513.7 2,598.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 438.4 455.5 493.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.7 194.8 194.1 -6.9 57.0 49.4 23.9 26.3 -24.5 -6.4 -19.9 840 62.3 9.1 -104.3 5.6 -129.7 23.7 -115.7 27.9 -74.9 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 397.1 450.9 530.1 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 526.9 566.6 605.0 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 731.2 761.6 781.8 785.1 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.-8 326.0 334.1 339.6 328.9 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 252.1 265.2 261.5 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 74.4 67.4 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.5 442.1 456.2 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,712.4 3,830.0 3,996.5 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,847.6 3,969.4 4,099.3 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,733.6 3,935.6 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,477.8 2,532.3 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 435.7 472.7 115.8 159.9 169.6 179.4 200.3 191.9 -59.3 11.7 27.0 -46.2 41.7 -94.8 7.7 -125.3 -20.8 -135.4 56.6 -109.8 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 406.5 484.1 324.3 401.6 471.4 492.6 541.9 593.9 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 776.0 792.1 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 342.4 344.9 201.4 211.6 225.3 241 .4 255.8 266.7 88.2 54.4 75.2 99.2 86.6 78.2 370.6 376.2 392.7 412.1 433.6 447.2 3,218.6 3,338.1 3,493.5 3,654.7 3,754.4 3,879.0 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,630.0 3,787.6 3,869.0 4,045.5 n in 19821983: 19841985: 19861987: 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,717.9 3,853.7 4,024.4 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,162.9 4,069.4 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,690.1 2,627.7 483.6 497.8 417.9 492.7 189.1 194.2 184.8 198.1 34.3 21.5 21.9 18.3 -78.2 -72.6 57 1 -73.8 517.4 519.7 593.1 551 .4 595.6 592.3 650.2 625.2 775.1 783.0 805.3 806.4 323.8 327.9 336.1 343.9 263.0 262.5 260.1 261.6 60.8 65.4 76.0 82.3 451.3 455.1 469.2 462.5 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,141.0 4,051.0 4,052.9 4,083.3 4,220.0 4,143.2 n.... mr 4,106.8 4,132.5 4,162.9 2,641.0 2,653.7 2,690.1 501.0 511.4 517.9 195.8 189.3 184.8 24.5 19.1 21.9 -55.0 -51.2 -57.1 569.7 587.5 593.1 624.6 638.7 650.2 799.7 810.3 805.3 335.5 343.6 336.1 254.4 255.8 260.1 81.1 87.8 76.0 464.2 466.7 469.2 4,082.3 4,113.5 4,141.0 4,161.8 4,183.7 4,220.0 IV FV IV IV IV. IV 1988- I 1989: 1 IV I GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Gross private domestic investment Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 . 1985 1986 .... 1987 1988 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.8 117.4 121.3 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.8 124.5 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 108.1 110.1 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.1 116.3 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 129.0 134.9 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 99.3 97.5 98.7 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 116.2 119.7 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 99.8 99.5 103.3 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.7 99.0 102.7 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.7 112.4 115.9 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 114.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.1 116.7 123.6 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.3 123.2 128.8 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1987- 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.1 118.6 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.8 121.8 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.7 106.2 109.0 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 113.7 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.9 131.5 100.7 98.3 97.9 97.9 100.0 97.0 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 118.7 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.0 99.7 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.4 100.6 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 112.5 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.7 111.3 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.7 116.8 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 120.0 125.1 n.... m 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.3 122.5 123.9 125.1 126.5 109.3 109.6 110.2 111.2 114.0 115.9 117.1 118.2 132.7 134.2 135.6 137.3 97.7 97.8 98.4 100.6 119.5 119.5 119.6 120.4 100.8 102.5 104.7 105.1 101.5 102.6 102.7 104.0 115.5 115.0 114.9 118.2 113.1 113.5 114.4 114.9 126.2 121.0 117.1 128.7 126.7 128.1 129.6 130.8 n r ni 124.5 125.9 126.9 128.0 129.8 130.4 111.2 110.8 111.4 120.0 123.3 122.9 139.0 140.4 141.8 100.4 100.2 100.3 122.1 124.2 125.6 106.3 106.6 106.0 105.6 105.9 103.6 118.9 118.2 119.8 117.4 117.8 118.3 123.8 119.2 125.0 132.9 134.4 135.6 IV IV IV IV IV IV. 1988: I IV 1989- I Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona! consumption expenditures Gross national product Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 1984: 1985: 19861987: 1988: Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.4 5.4 6.9 7.9 4.2 12.4 4.7 6.2 4.2 9.0 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.1 6.2 ... IV IV IV IV IV IV I II m rv 1989: I II m * -0.2 1.9 — 2.5 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 .6 7.3 1.7 3.0 2.3 6.6 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 2.5 3.0 Implicit price deflator Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.3 3.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 1.8 2.4 2.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.6 3.2 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.0 2.9 NOTE. — Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Implicit price deflator -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.4 5.3 5.5 4.3 1.9 2.2 7 6.2 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.0 1.9 5.6 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.4 7.6 7.4 10.3 9.7 7.2 6.0 6.2 3.6 8.7 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.1 7.6 7.6 9.3 9.3 2.8 Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.1 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 4.3 2.6 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.7 5.8 2.1 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.8 3.9 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.4 2.3 4.7 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.7 1.9 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.5 2.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.8 6.3 2.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capita! consumption adjustments Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 Compensation of employees Net interest Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 .. 1986 1987 .... 1988 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: I II m IV 1989: I 11 III ' 1 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,267.1 2,367.1 2,520.7 2,731.3 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 2,309.4 2.408.7 2^598.4 2,648.1 2,705.9 2,754.9 2,816.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,117.4 2,173.9 2,282.6 2,419.5 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 2,137.7 2,198.5 2,343.3 2,381.8 2,408.9 2,434.1 2,453.2 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.104 1.129 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.109 1.112 1.123 1.132 1.148 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .123 .123 .123 .131 .120 .118 .120 .124 .122 .122 .122 .122 .124 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .106 .107 .096 .098 .102 .104 .106 .106 .106 .107 .108 .108 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .721 .730 .744 .685 .680 .694 .713 .727 .734 .732 .740 .746 .756 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .041 .047 .052 .042 .037 .042 .037 .042 .050 .050 .051 .053 .055 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .098 .098 .103 .057 .103 .107 .106 .096 .098 .102 .103 .102 .105 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 .041 .044 .023 .036 .032 .033 .038 .041 .041 .044 .044 .045 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .064 .058 .059 .034 .066 .075 .072 .058 .057 .060 .059 .058 .061 18.524 18.643 18.704 19.217 19.682 19.996 20.456 20.908 21.393 18.770 19.423 19.784 20.116 20.650 21.176 21.382 21.401 21.469 21.446 10.769 11.777 12.635 13.039 13.528 14.069 14.746 15.252 15.907 12.865 13.209 13.735 14.341 15.008 15.535 15.645 15.833 16.024 16.213 2,842.7 2,887.2 2,936.2 2,459.1 2,471.3 2,497.2 1.156 1.168 1.176 .125 .126 .129 .110 .111 .112 .768 .778 .783 .057 .060 .061 .096 .093 .091 .045 .041 .038 .051 .053 .053 21.356 21.364 21.516 16.407 16.625 16.842 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancia) corporate business in 1982 del- lara. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. a 4 Total Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies, With inventory valuation and capita! consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,665.4 3,972.6 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,312.8 3,473.1 3,799.9 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,511.4 2,690.0 2,907.6 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2,571.2 2,778.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 37.2 48.4 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 252.0 280.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.5 14.3 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 282.1 298.7 328.6 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 275.2 308.2 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 255.8 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 276.2 — 10.4 — 10.9 -5.8 — 1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -20.4 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 50.9 46.8 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.1 52.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 325.5 351.7 392.9 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 324.0 370.0 1988: I 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2.819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 44.0 45.4 37.7 32.0 279.9 286.5 289.3 296.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 -20.1 49.9 48.9 46.9 41.5 376.6 383.0 396.4 415.7 1989- I 4.185.2 4,249.6 4,287.3 3,061.7 3,118.2 3,171.9 59.0 51.3 36.1 300.3 304.2 307.2 11.8 9.8 5.4 316.3 307.8 295.2 279.7 275.5 268.7 318.0 296.0 275.0 -38.3 -20.5 -6.3 36.6 32.3 26.5 436.1 458.4 471.5 1982 1983 1984... 1985 1986.. 1987 1988.. 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IT 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV . . . . n m rv n r m 1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports IV IV IT IV IV IV 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,083.3 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.0 421.0 455.2 263.8 310.0 346.7 373.2 422.0 424.5 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.2 195.5 211.6 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.1 196.3 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 139.7 149.1 162.0 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.8 151.4 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.0 76.5 81.6 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.1 76.7 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 942.0 998.1 1,052.3 786.6 837.9 879.6 932.7 952.1 1,015.4 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 500.0 529.2 559.7 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 511.9 536.8 124,4 135.1 146.7 156.4 166.8 177.2 186.8 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 !68.7 180.6 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.5 75.2 76.8 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.0 76.7 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 201.7 216.6 229.0 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.5 221.3 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,449.5 1,591.7 1,727.6 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,494.4 1,643.3 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 6.6 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 1988- I 11 Ill IV 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 446.4 454.6 452.5 467.4 210.3 212.5 208.4 215.3 156.9 162.2 162.7 166.1 79.2 79.9 81.4 86.0 1,022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 542.5 554.5 567.8 574.1 180.8 183.6 188.9 193.9 74.3 76.9 78.3 77.6 224.5 227.5 231.2 232.8 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 1989- I 3,381.4 3,444.1 3,508.1 466.4 471.0 486.1 211.7 212.9 225.6 172.1 173.5 173.9 82.6 84.6 86.7 1,098.3 1,121.5 1,131.4 587.3 592.2 598.1 195.0 198.9 202.2 77.9 89.5 85.2 238.1 241.0 245.9 1,816.7 1,851.7 1,890.6 7.0 7.3 7.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 1982. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 19841985: 1986: 1987- n ni ' Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $37.8 billion (annual rate) in November following an increase of $36.1 billion in October. The increases were affected by several special factors: The Loma Prieta earthquake in October, Hurricane Hugo in September, as well as a large increase in subsidy payments to farm proprietors and bonus payments to employees in the motor vehicle industry in October. Excluding the impact of the special factors, personal income rose about $24 billion in November, and about $28 billion in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOILARS*(RATIO SCALE) o.uuu ^ 4,000 p—— ' 4,000 — r—"^ r-r~" 1 3,000 _ 3,000 TOTA L PERSONAL lt>4COME _- ___----- — .------• 2,000 2,000 WAGE AS D SALARY DISf1URSEMENTS ._----'" 1,400 1,400 .---" .-_ (DTHER INCOME 800 800 . • ^ 400 / ,_ . _ - TRANSFER ^ PAYMENTS "" "" IIIIlllllll IIIIlllllll IIIIlllllll 1981 1982 1983 400 imilimi IIIIlllllll IIIIlllllll IIIIlllllll 1985 1987 1984 1986 SEASONALLY ADJUS TED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE; DEPARTME •JT OF COMMERCE iiiiiiiini IIIIlllllll 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF t CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 1981 Proprietors ' income 3 Other labor income 1 2 2 2584 2 5209 26708 2 838 6 3 108 7 3 325 3 35262 3 777 6 4 064.5 June July r Aug r r Oct r NovP 1 20948 2 2494 24290 1384 150 3 163 6 173 6 1829 187 6 199 3 212 8 228.9 4 1689 42063 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sept personal income Wage and salary disbursements ' 2 501 6 2 5167 236 5 238.2 4 273 1 4 3195 4 360 7 4387 1 4 396 3 4417.5 4443 7 4,456.9 4467 1 4 503 2 4541 0 2 5454 2'557 3 239 7 241 3 242 9 244.4 246 0 247.5 249 1 250.7 2522 253 8 255.3 1 372 0 1 510 3 1 586 1 1 676 6 1 838 6 1 975 4 2 579 4 2 601 3 2 603 5 2 621 7 2 644 7 2 651.0 26684 2 697 8 2 6995 Farm 205 30 7 24 6 12 4 305 30 2 347 160 1 156 1 1509 1784 2040 225 6 247 2 41 6 39.8 2700 2880 19 5 29 4 480 659 63 0 564 54 3 43.2 38 8 36.5 329 400 403 295 7 297 4 299 6 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists primarily of employer contrihutions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Nonfarm 3006 300 8 3046 303 5 3046 306 3 Less: income of persons * 66 13 3 13 6 13 2 85 92 11 6 13 4 15 7 16 1 160 13 8 11 8 99 98 98 97 93 84 308.0 3074 —16 306 5 313 6 15 10 2 dividend income 52.9 61 3 63.9 68 7 75.5 78 7 85.8 920 102.2 1065 106.9 1084 109.4 1103 111.0 111 4 111.8 112 8 113.3 1136 114 8 115.8 interest income 271.9 335 4 369.7 393 1 444.7 4780 493.2 5232 payments 5 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 456.6 489.8 contributions for social insurance 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 132.7 149.3 571.1 548.2 584.7 5986 606.4 593.5 595.6 161.9 172.9 194.9 199.1 200.1 6165 610.7 614.2 209.0 209.8 624.2 623.9 625.5 630.9 632.6 636.4 640.2 643.5 650.4 211.3 212.6 212.7 213.8 214.8 215.2 216.3 218.1 218.2 628.9 641 5 648.4 655 2 661.8 6650 667.9 670.4 672 4 674.0 521.5 5 personal income 6 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.1 3,271.3 3,469.4 3,714.7 4,003.7 4,128.4 4,155.9 4,204.0 4,232.4 4,276.5 4,309.4 4,320.5 4,352.6 4,383.1 4,398.6 4,432.4 4,441 3 4,478.8 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Persona! income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the third quarter of 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 6,000 6,000 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE. DtPARTMENT OH COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal nontax payments p t Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays ' Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983.. 1984 1985... . 1986 1987. 1988 2,258.5 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,777.6 4,064.5 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 571.7 586.6 Current dollars 1982 dollars Dollars 1,918.0 1,781.1 2J27.6 2,261.4 2428.1 2 ',668. 6 2,838.7 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 o',504.5 2,713.3 2J888.5 3,104.1 3^333.1 3,205.9 3^77.8 1982 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures 136.9 159.4 153.9 130.6 164.1 125.4 124.9 101.8 144.7 2 214.3 2,248.6 2,261.5 2 331.9 2,469.8 2,542.8 2,635.3 2 676.6 2J793.2 8,421 9,243 9 724 10,340 11,257 11 861 12,469 13 140 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Percent 9 722 9 769 9 724 9 930 10 419 10 625 10,905 10 970 11^337 7,607 8,320 8 818 9,515 10,253 10,985 11,576 12 340 13,131 8 818 9 139 9,489 9 839 10 123 10 303 10^546 .5 5 21 4.9 20 2.6 .6 3.3 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.1 3.2 4.2 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237 ',051 239,322 241^660 243,985 246^378 8 783 §'794 7.1 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: IV IV IV IV IV... . IV 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 3,399.1 3,597.8 3,908.7 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.4 589.2 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3,063.4 3,319.4 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,787.7 2,961.4 3,177.6 143.1 145.4 157.3 111.7 102.0 141.8 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,646.2 2,726.2 9,929 10,725 11,467 12,068 12,629 13,552 9,749 10,151 10,491 10,667 10,909 11,130 9,068 9,825 10,479 1 1 ,240 11,825 12,588 8,904 9,299 9,587 9,935 10,214 10,339 12 9.1 1.7 3.3 .3 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.9 3.3 4.3 233,466 235,707 237,946 240,257 242,579 244,936 1988: I II III.... IV 3,948.5 4,026.6 4,097.6 4,185.2 572.2 590.7 585.9 597.8 3,376.4 3,435.9 3,511.7 3,587.4 3.244.4 3,301.9 3,362.1 3,424.0 131.9 134.0 149.6 163.4 2,757.2 2,773.3 2,806.4 2,835.9 13,754 13,966 14,235 14,504 11,232 11,273 11,377 1 1 ,466 12.824 13,028 13,229 13,439 10,473 10,515 10,573 10,624 3.7 1.5 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 245,476 246,008 246,685 247,343 1989: I 11 ILT... 4,317.8 4,400.3 4,455.9 628.3 652.6 649.1 3,689.5 3,747.7 3,806.8 3,483.8 3,547.0 3,611.7 205.7 200.7 195.1 2,881.7 2,887.6 2,919.2 14,884 15,084 15,280 11,625 11,622 11,717 13,641 13,862 14,081 10,654 10,681 10,797 5.7 — .1 33 5.6 5.4 5.1 247,890 248,456 249,143 •s to business, and person- Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, gross farm income fell $4.9 net farm income fell $6.4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 ^—• 160 billion (annual rate) and billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) s 1i—-^ X • 1 ! 24 20 ~~ 1 I6( — 120 12 OR 5SS FARM INC OMt 80 SO 60 1 1\ 4 40 1 <. 1 \l f 1 "••»- "\ \ *"Y A \ 1 20 - \ / s '""•x / -"\ ^"' ^^ *^ ** 20 Nb T FARM INCOAAt \ I . 1 I H 1 '. i\; I 10 ' M 1 1 10 \t I/ 1 1 1 1981 i i i 1 1 1983 1982 I 1 1 1 1 1 1985 1984 1 1986 1 1 1 1 1 1 1987 1 1 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1 1 ?989 T988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total > Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n. m IV 1989: I r . r n 149.3 166,4 163.5 ' 152.9 r 175.0 r 166.3 r 160.3 r !71.7 177.6 r 139.7 141.7 142.6 r 136.5 r 142.5 144.1 135.5 139.5 151.5 Livestock and products 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.5 74.3 64.0 63.8 72.6 58.6 67.4 66.9 62.2 62.6 73.5 82.1 71.9 71.4 79.7 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 73.0 69.8 71.5 75.7 78.9 170.4 172.4 r 167.8 r 175.9 174.7 182.0 175.0 178.6 131.3 143.8 144.8 138.1 144.4 148.8 160.4 152.2 72.8 76.4 77.8 75.8 81.8 75.3 78.3 80.3 199.0 194.1 155.7 161.1 84.3 81.4 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 3 Production expenses Value of inventory changes 2 -6.3 6.5 -1.4 10 9 6.3 -2.4 -2.7 -.4 -4.3 J .3 -.2 17 — 4.0 -4.4 -4.7 41 6.7 5.5 Current dollars 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 134.0 122.4 r 128.0 r 135.0 r r 120.4 128.7 r !31.3 !31.7 1982 dollars 3 r 27.0 23.5 !2.5 r r 32.3 32.3 r 37.9 43.5 r 42.6 r r 50.0 r 43.7 r 36.3 r r T r 130.2 * 133.7 ' 138.2 r 137.8 138.9 140.4 44.1 44.5 r 48.3 r 36.8 r 40.8 60.1 53.7 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 18.8 !6.2 r r 28.7 23.5 !2.0 29.9 29.1 33.4 r 37.1 r r 35.2 r 43.1 r 37.3 30.9 r 37.2 r r r r 37.4 40.0 30.2 r 33.1 48.2 42.6 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $21.0 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $8.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 320 /^ \ 280 \ A/ \ ^ PROFITS BEFORE TAX ^y^ /" \ s s s~ ^ S ' x^ *N. *.-'"' N. N 160 •X^ s -"•s. _/ -'" ,^~^~.. V_>^ "X s ^- v ••/"'""" \ I 200 PR OFITS AFTER If X. s—' '"~\ '""~\__ -Vr_. 240 h-"/ s \ / ^ J \ X__-_\ \ 120 "•'.'- . ^ " - 80 TAX LIABILITY **\ \ , \ X "~'\ 40 \. UNDISTI IBUTED PROFHk---" i i i 1 1 1 1982 1981 1 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1 1 1986 1985 1 1 1 1 1 SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1988 1 1987 1989 COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits {before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period IV IV IV IV IV IV 1988- I II ni IV 1989- I n r rn 1 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade Total Dividends uted profits Inventory valuation adjustment 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 198219831984198519861987- Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 195.2 208.7 238.2 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 32.0 30.5 29.8 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 163.2 178.2 208.4 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 59.5 76.6 98.4 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 44.1 41.1 40.1 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.3 124.7 137.9 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 115.3 142.0 168.9 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 91.3 98.7 110.4 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 43.3 58.5 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 17 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 255.8 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 193.4 211.8 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.6 29.9 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 164.8 181.9 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 64.8 84.5 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 41.0 41.2 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 276.2 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 113.1 127.3 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 121.0 148.9 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 93.6 102.8 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 27.4 46.1 -13.4 -8.1 16 -6.6 -8.0 -20.4 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 225.7 235.8 239.0 252.2 27.7 29.7 31.6 30.1 198.0 206.1 207.3 222.1 94.6 98.2 95.1 105.5 42.2 37.3 39.2 41.8 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 129.0 138.4 141.2 143.2 159.9 166.9 173.2 175.6 105.7 108.6 112.2 115.2 54.2 58.3 61.1 60.4 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 -20.1 279.7 275.5 268.7 233.1 231.8 223.0 29.3 28.6 17.8 203.9 203.2 205.2 96.5 90.3 86.6 34.1 36.9 41.9 318.0 296.0 275.0 144.4 134.9 122.6 173.6 161.1 152.4 118.5 120.9 123.3 55.1 40.2 29.1 -38.3 -20.5 -6.3 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption £ Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment rose $7.1 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $3.0 billion. There was a $27.4 billion increase in inventories, the same as the increase in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 — 700 500 400 300 200 100 -100 700 " " ' " " — 600 - --~ /**. / ^^\ GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT •^\ — --' — "-"-—._ — 111 1981 7 y — " ~ 1 " ~ 600 ^^ ( — NONR ESIDENTIAL 500 ^ / -~~ — ^--"" 400 *• — * . _ _ _ — RESIDENTIAL ^ 300 FIX ED INVESTMEN T _ ' 200 •-" — MGE IN BUSINE NVENTORIES V " --v 100 . ^^ — / / 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1984 1983 1982 1 1 1 1985 1 1 1 1986 1 1 1 1987 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1 -100 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change i i business 1 ^ixed investmen t Gross private domestic investment 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 . . 1988 19821983: 1984: 1985: 19861987: TV IV IV IV IV IV 437 0 515 5 447 3 . . . 1988- I II ni IT 1989- I n r rn Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 502 3 664 8 643 1 659 4 699 9 750 3 •409 6 579 8 661 8 654 1 648 8 749 7 728 8 748 4 771 1 752 8 769 6 775 0 779 1 Total Total 445 3 491 5 471 8 509 4 597 t 631 8 652 5 6706 719 6 469 5 548 8 616 8 6468 6609 6863 322 8 369 2 366 7 356 9 4160 442 9 435 2 444 3 487 2 354 9 383 9 435 0 451 3 435 8 458 6 698 7 719 1 726 5 734 1 742 0 747 6 751 7 472 7 487 1 493 2 495 8 503 1 512 5 519 6 Structures 113 9 138 5 143 3 1240 141 1 153 2 1390 133 8 140 3 137 6 127 4 146 6 1559 133 7 1389 137 1 1399 142 0 142 5 144 7 142 4 146 2 Producers' durable equipment 2089 230 7 223 4 232 8 2749 289 7 296 2 310 5 346 8 217 3 2565 2884 295 5 302 2 319 7 335 6 347 2 351 3 353 3 358 5 370 1 373 4 Residential 122 5 122 3 105 1 152 5 181 1 188 8 217.3 2264 232.4 114 7 164 9 181 8 1955 225 1 227 7 226 1 232 1 233 2 2384 238 8 235 1 232 1 Nonfarm Total 306 — 2.4 18 3 — 23.1 4 60.5 14 6 8.6 305 34.2 59 9 31 0 45 0 72 12 2 63 3 51 1 21.3 41 3 23.7 80 61.3 300 293 187 24 2 30.4 41 5 40.8 27 7 27 4 27 4 19 1 23.6 19 8 83 24 0 -24 5 71 67 7 11 3 69 29 3 44 6 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 6.4 percent in 1990, following a rise of 10.3 percent in 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 600 600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 500 — 400 r^ ^ 300 ^ ^•^. i -^ r^^\ ~~*— 1 ,LL INDUSTRIE! r----' ^ __ 200 ,_-' A lANUFACTURII IG ^ 100 i I I 1982 \ 1 \ \ 1983 1 1 i 1 1 1985 1984 \ 1 1 1 1986 400 — 300 .— * — " NMANUFACT — r""^ — 200 — 100 , i i-* 1 1 1987 1988 1989 _!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2J SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Industries surveyed quarterly Manufacturing Period All industries Total Durable goods Addenda Nonmanufacturing Nondurable goods Total ' Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other Total nonfarm business 2 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.67 430.76 475.18 505.49 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 166.32 183.16 190.16 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.01 78.30 83.05 83.22 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 74.88 88.01 100.11 106.94 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 264.44 292.02 315.33 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.39 12.66 12.50 12.01 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 18.85 21.34 25.24 26.41 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.88 46.67 50.06 50.14 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 168.65 183.76 204.22 226.78 413.34 427.54 435.61 442.11 157.97 162.62 168.76 173.32 75.28 77.38 79.15 80.56 82.69 85.24 89.62 92.76 255.37 264.92 266.85 268.79 12.61 13.15 12.53 12.38 20.35 20.95 22.02 22.04 45.05 45.60 46.69 48.73 177.37 185.21 185.61 185.65 157.97 162.62 168.76 173.32 255.37 264.92 266.85 268.79 n r m 459.47 470.86 484.93 485.45 175.22 181.53 187.66 188.21 81.26 82.97 85.66 82.30 93.96 98.57 102.00 105.90 284.24 289.33 297.28 297.25 12.15 12.70 12.59 12.58 23.13 24.26 28.53 25.04 50.81 52.01 49.57 47.86 198.15 200.36 206.59 211.76 175.22 181.53 187.66 188.21 284.24 289.33 297.28 29" - 1990- I 44 503.46 518.27 193.76 198.70 86.84 88.43 106.92 110.27 309.70 319.57 12.23 12.83 26.61 27.56 51.89 53.11 218.97 226.07 193.76 198.70 309.70 319.57 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 4 1989 1990 4 1988- I n TTT IV 1989- I IV < n 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly- See last column ("nomnanufacturing surveyed annually"} for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 440.66 483.48 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 166.32 183.16 190.16 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 294.77 317.17 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 264.44 292.02 315.33 Surveyed annual1V3 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In November, civilian employment rose 241,000 and unemployment rose 168,000. MILL: ONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS Of PERSONS* 126 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 122 118 r CIVILIAN LABOR FORC E ^ x—' — 126 ^ —' ' 122 ..... _------" 158 114 110 106 114 ;>^/~r^^r^~^ ^ _ — -•—. 98 12 ^ 8 \\\\\\\\\\\ ~ 102 .._.*" 98 ^^ ^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .,i,,i..,,. 1982 1981 110 106 ^ 1 1983 .. 1 -^ JNEMPLOYMEr-IT niiiliiii. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Minium 1 \ \ \ \ 11 \ \ \ \ M l . .1.1,1. 1988 1987 1986 1985 8 4 \ \ \ \ \ \ I 11 1 1 1984 12 >»^—.—• I 4 0 — ^ — '" CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT f f^ 102 „-•'"' ^' 0 1989 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNOi OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1987 1988 1988: Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Noninstitutionai population including resident Armed Forces NSA Kesident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 186,949 187,098 187,340 187,461 187,581 187,708 187,854 187,995 188,149 188,286 188,428 188,580 188,721 including resident Armed Forces 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 1,705 1,696 124,215 124,259 1,696 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,673 1,666 1,666 1,688 1,702 1,709 1,704 125,124 124,865 124,948 125,343 125,283 125,768 125,622 125,706 125,742 125,814 126,219 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 Agricultural Total 99,303 100,397 3,364 3,368 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 117,652 117,705 122,510 122,563 115,947 116,009 118,407 118,537 118,820 118,797 118,888 119,207 119,125 119,285 119,158 119,254 119,490 123,428 123,181 123,264 123,659 123,610 124,102 123,956 124,018 124,040 124,105 124,515 116,711 116,853 117,136 117,113 117,215 117,541 117,459 117,597 117,456 117,545 117,786 3,300 3,223 3,206 3,104 3,112 3,096 3,219 3,307 3,257 3,217 3,141 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find ftiJltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian employment Employment Total 95,938 97,030 96,125 Part time for economic reasons 1 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 Total 7,637 8,273 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 3,238 112,709 3,193 112,816 4,819 5,033 6,563 6,554 113,411 113,630 113,930 114,009 114,102 114,445 114,240 114,290 114,199 114,327 114,644 4,837 4,697 4,709 4,930 4,609 4,801 4,505 4,553 4,612 4,466 4,556 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 6,497 6,421 6,584 6,561 6,729 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 15 weeks and over Civilian Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 65.3 65.6 65.9 59.2 59.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 1,502 1,495 66.1 66.1 62.6 62.6 1,512 1,304 1,310 1,426 1,313 1,258 1,472 1,305 1,370 1,374 1,445 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.4 66.6 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.4 66.6 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.0 63.0 62.9 62.9 63.0 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 "Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable witb earlier data because of change in istimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In November, both the overall unemployment rate and the civilian unemployment rate rose slightly, to 5.3 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 10 1985 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Unemployment rate, all workers 1 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 By sex and age All civilian workers 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 years 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 By selected groups By race White Black and other Black Experienced wage and salary workers 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 6.3 6.7 8.6 1985 1986 1987 1988 6.1 5.4 7.0 6.2 5.5 1988: Nov Dec 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 14.1 14.8 4.6 4.6 10.0 10.0 11.2 11.6 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.7 16.4 14.8 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.6 14.7 14.5 15.1 14.9 15.5 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.6 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.6 9.5 10.3 9.6 9.5 10.1 10.3 10.5 12.0 11.9 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.9 10.9 11.1 11.6 11.8 12.1 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. ;ate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per- 12 Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 6.9 7.3 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 7.9 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.0 5.1 7.1 7.0 6.2 6.3 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 7.9 7.3 6.2 7.2 6.9 7.7 7.2 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.5 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 3.9 3.3 9.8 9.2 8.1 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.0 3.3 3.1 7.7 8.2 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6 8.3 7.9 8.7 8.0 7.6 7.6 8.3 cent of potentially available labor force hours. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force time lost (percent) 2 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In November, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose, while the percentage for 5-14 weeks fell. Both the mean duration of unemployment and the median fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 — 50 JOB LOSERS REENTRANTS 30 — 20 20 JOB LEAVERS • 10 — 10 NEW ENTRANTS 0 iniili 1985 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Unemployment (thousands) Period Number of weeks Percent distribution 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 47.6 46.2 29.5 31.1 12.0 11.5 10.9 11.2 47.0 50.6 49.4 47.2 47.7 50.4 48.1 48.1 48.) 48.4 48.8 30.7 29.1 29.4 31. £ 31.7 30.4 29.4 31.5 31.0 30.4 29.6 11.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.0 10.0 12.9 11.5 12.0 11.2 11.5 11.1 10.0 10.7 11.3 9.6 9.1 9.6 8.8 8.8 10.0 10.1 Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 1988- Nov Deo 6,563 6.554 1989' Jan Feb Mar Apr 6,716 6,328 6,128 fi,546 6.395 6,561 6,497 6.421 6,584 6,561 6,729 B,eason for unemployment: percent distribution - Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 11.4 12.6 12.8 5.6 5.8 46.2 46.5 14.7 15.1 26.9 12.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 11.8 11.1 12.0 11.3 11.4 11.8 11.7 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 46.4 45.2 46.0 45.7 42.7 42.0 44.3 46.5 44.6 45.1 46.8 14.7 15.5 14.4 15.C 17.5 15.5 15.3 16.2 15.9 15.1 15.6 State programs Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, "all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly average, thousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ]988 May July Sept Oct Nov . ' Includes Siata {-?0 States, District oi Columbia, Puerto Rico, ami Virgin Islands), ex-servicemeu (UC'X), Federal (UO.FE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also Incudes I'ederal ami State ex•supplemental compensation program. " 27.3 27.3 28.1 29.0 29.1 31.2 29.4 27.5 IS:S 27, 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2^650 2,332 2,056 488 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 306 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,125 12.2 12.1 1,989 2,032 301 309 1,857 2,205 11.8 12.0 11.6 10.3 10.7 i 11.3 11.0 9.8 1 9.6 10.6 10.5 2,061 2,105 2,143 2,105 2,063 2,134 2^216 2,177 2,187 2,257 2,287 293 309 323 300 317 335 339 319 323 360 344 2,685 2,695 2,567 S,221 1,957 1,936 2,168 2,006 1,860 Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training AdniinisJration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 210,000 in November. MILL IONS OF PERSONS* MIL LIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) no 28 — - 100 — "" ^'"'— 26 SERVICES ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 1 ^ ^ ^ --' 24 90 — -"""*' 22 80 - - ""T" — 20 SERV ICE-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES 70 FiETAIL TRADE — 18 60 - - _- •—" —— • \^r--^ GOVERNMEN ^—" 16 HfH-ririTfi iTrnlimi 1 Jz=— Illilllllll Illilllllll Illllllllll X 50 20 40 - GOC3DS-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES 30 18 JFACTURING \ illinium luiihiiiiliiiiiliiiii 1 iniilmiik i Illilllllll V ' 6 4 — Illinium ' 1985 20 11' ' H 1 1) ' ' ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n iniiliiui 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iiiiiliinl) 1989 1986 1987 1988 1985 r i— m i 1 1 c DNSTRUCTIC 1986 iiiiiliinl 1987 SEASONALLY AOJ USTED SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR _ i n I ill! Mif 1988 1989 M COUNCIL OF EC DNOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Groods-producing industries Period Total nonagricultural employment Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods 12,187 12,109 Il|o39 10,732 11 '505 11,490 11,230 11,194 11,437 8,098 8,061 7J41 4,346 4,188 90.200 94,496 97,519 99,525 102,200 105,584 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24^727 24,859 24,558 24,708 25,249 3J905 3,948 4383 4,673 4,816 4,967 5,125 20,285 20,170 18^781 18,434 19^378 19^260 18,965 19J024 19,403 1988: Nov.... 106,824 Dec 107,097 25,460 25,513 5,191 5,213 19,557 19,589 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June... July.... Aug.... Sept T.. Oct r... Nov ".. 25,626 25,629 25,646 25,671 25,672 25,648 25,669 25,694 25,614 25,607 25,604 5,267 5,270 5,252 5,279 5,283 5,283 5,314 5,321 5,325 5,333 5,350 19,648 19,648 19,680 19,672 19,667 19,650 19,649 19,644 19,559 19,543 19,516 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .. . 1985 1986 ... 1987 1988 .... 90,406 91,156 89,566 107,442 107,711 107,888 108,101 108,310 108,607 108,767 108,887 109,096 109,189 109,399 Nondurable goods Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5459 5^238 5,255 5^372 5,548 5,275 5,358 7,702 7^873 7J770 7,734 7J830 7,967 65,659 65^753 66,866 69^769 72^660 74,967 77J492 80,335 5^278 5,268 5^555 5^717 5,753 5344 6,029 11,545 11,565 8,012 8,024 81,364 81,584 5,616 5,634 11,605 11,594 11,604 11,600 11,594 11,567 11,549 11,551 11,480 11,454 11,430 8,043 8,054 8,076 8,072 8,073 8,083 8,100 8,093 8,079 8,089 8,086 81,816 82,082 82,242 82,430 82,638 82,959 83,098 83,193 83,482 83,582 83,795 5,654 5,667 5,666 5,682 5,700 5,716 5,736 5,618 5,709 5,733 5,744 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, aeif-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total-derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad 14 Total 64,748 Retail trade 15,035 15,189 15^179 Finance, insurance, and real estate Government Services Total Federal 20J797 22*000 23,053 24J236 f!5,600 16,241 16,031 15J837 15,869 16^024 16,394 16,693 17,010 17,372 2,866 2,772 2J739 2,774 2J807 2,875 2,899 2,943 2,971 6,726 6,744 26,111 26,230 17,525 17,523 2,983 2,981 6,746 . 6,763 6,774 6,776 6,790 6,808 6,815 6,836 6,852 6,849 6,864 26,318 26,434 26,520 26,651 26,711 26,931 26,973 27,058 27,159 27,195 27,320 17,545 17,587 17,597 17,626 17,687 17,723 17,751 17,804 17,866 17,853 17,864 2,978 2,982 2,982 2,982 2,999 2,995 3,000 2,999 2,996 2,985 2,990 5,160 15,613 16^545 17,356 17,930 18,483 19,110 5,298 5^341 5,468 5^689 5^955 6,283 6^547 6,676 6,104 6,125 19,282 19,328 6,146 6,171 6,197 6,206 6,222 6,230 6,237 6,256 6,264 6,275 6,293 19,407 19,460 19,488 19,489 19,528 19,551 19,586 19,621 19,632 19,677 19,710 17,890 18'619 19^036 19,694 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural l Period Total 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.9 34.6 34.6 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.6 1980. 1981 1982. 1983 1984, 1985 1986 1987 1988. 1988: Nov Dec 1989: Jan Peb Mar May July Sept Oct T N 0 y" 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.3 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 r 41.0 40.8 40.7 Current dollars Total private nonagrieultural * Manufacturing Overtime 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 Total private nonagricultural ' Manufacturing $7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.18 10.30 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.40 10.42 10.45 10.48 10.52 10.55 10.55 10.57 $6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.29 9.42 9.45 9.49 9.52 9.54 9.61 9.60 9.62 9.69 9.69 9.74 9.78 9.77 1 3 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). 2 Current dollars 1977 dollars 2 $235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.36 326.87 327.92 330.25 329.39 331.04 335.39 332.16 332.85 337.21 335.27 337.98 339.37 338.04 $172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 167.81 167.28 167.39 167.55 166.44 166.44 167.53 165.01 165.10 166.85 165.89 166.90 166.85 165.62 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.40 424.36 422.71 424.56 426.21 426.40 429.52 427.22 428.45 429.68 431.32 '432.55 430.44 430.20 $367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 493.08 503.04 497.07 496.89 498.39 501.23 505.21 494.17 498.17 511.30 510.73 r 510.16 514.37 521.49 $147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 185.60 187.11 187.40 186.41 186.98 189.44 187.56 188.43 190.97 189.22 189.50 191.69 190.37 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.7 r 3.6 3.5 3.0 1977 dollars -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 10 -.9 9 3 -1.2 8 -.7 20 -1.6 9 -.9 ' 1 -.9 15 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY [Not seasonally adjusted] Percent change from Index (June 1981 = 100) Period 19801981: 19821983: 19841985: 1986198719881986- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Dec 1987: Mar Sept Dec 1988- Mar Sept Dec 1989- Mar June Sept Total compensation 94.7 104.0 110.7 117.0 122.7 127.5 131.6 136.0 142.6 130.8 131.6 132.9 133.8 135.1 136.0 138.1 139.8 141.2 142.6 144.4 146.1 147.9 Wages and salaries 95.4 103.8 110.3 115.8 120.6 125.6 129.5 133.8 139.3 128.8 129.5 130.8 131.7 133.0 133.8 135.1 136.6 137.9 139.3 140.8 142.2 143.9 Benefits 1 93.0 104.3 111.7 120.0 127.9 132.4 136.9 141.7 151.3 136.1 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.3 141.7 146.1 148.2 149.7 151.3 154.0 156.5 158.7 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.--The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost o! labor, free from the influence of employment shuts among occupations and industries. 12 months earlier 3 months earlier Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits'-1 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 .6 .6 .7 1.0 .7 .6 1.0 .7 1.0 .7 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .5 .6 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.1 .7 .5 1.0 .7 1.0 .6 1.0 .6 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 Total compensation 1.3 1.2 1.2 .9 .9 .7 1.0 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 9.8 as 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.7 Wages and salaries 9.0 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.4 Benefits 1 11.8 12.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 6.8 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 5.4 5.6 6.0 Data exclude farm and household workers. gource. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output ' Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1980.. 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.4 101.0 100.2 102.6 105.2 99.0 100.0 99.1 102.0 104.2 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.3 107.9 105.3 107.2 113.3 107.8 108.5 105.9 108.0 114.4 131.8 144.1 154.9 160.8 167.4 131.6 144.0 154.7 160.8 167.2 97.0 96.1 97.3 97.8 97.6 96.7 96.0 97.1 97.8 97.5 132.6 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.1 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 1985 1986... 1987 1988. 107.3 109.8 111.1 113.0 105.6 107.7 108.9 111.1 124.2 128.0 133.4 140.0 123.9 127.6 133.1 140.3 115.7 116.6 120.1 123.9 117.4 118.4 122.2 126.3 174.8 183.8 191.0 200.2 174.0 182.9 189.8 198.7 98.4 101.7 101.9 102.5 98.0 101.1 101.2 101.8 162.8 167.5 171.9 177.1 164.9 169.8 174.2 178.8 162.2 165.6 170.0 174.9 163.8 167.6 172.0 176.5 100.9 103.5 105.7 108.3 109.8 99.5 103.0 104.5 106.2 107.6 105.0 113.6 120.8 125.9 128.9 104.2 114.1 120.7 125.5 128.4 104.1 109.7 114.3 116.2 117.4 104.7 110.8 115.5 118.1 119.3 158.2 163.2 169.9 178.6 187.4 158.0 162.9 169.6 177.5 186.4 97.9 97.8 97.8 99.3 102.8 97.8 97.6 97.6 98.7 102.3 156.8 157.7 160.7 164.9 170.6 158.7 158.2 162.3 167.1 173.2 150.2 155.2 159.8 163.7 167.1 151.4 156.2 161.0 165.5 169.2 110.0 110.7 111.7 112.5 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.2 130.4 132.2 134.4 136.7 130.0 132.0 134.1 136.4 118.6 119.5 120.3 121.5 120.7 121.5 122.4 123.7 188.3 189.5 191.8 195.1 187.1 188.3 190.5 193.8 101.9 101.4 101.7 102.5 101.3 100.7 101.0 101.8 171.2 171.3 171.6 173.5 173.6 173.4 173.9 175.8 168.2 169.6 170.7 171.3 170.3 171.4 172.6 173.4 1988: I 113.2 112.6 113.4 113.5 111.0 110.5 111.5 112.0 138.2 139.3 140.7 141.9 138.0 139.5 141.1 142.8 122.1 123.8 124.0 125.0 124.3 126.2 126.6 127.5 196.4 199.1 201.9 204.5 195.0 197.5 200.2 203.0 102.3 102.5 102.8 103.0 101.5 101.7 101.9 102.3 173.5 176.9 178.0 180.2 175.7 178.7 179.6 181.3 171.9 174.1 175.8 177.9 173.8 175.6 177.0 179.6 1989: I.. 113.8 114.2 114.7 111.6 111.9 112.6 143.6 144.4 145.6 143.6 144.6 145.9 126.2 126.4 127.0 128.6 129.2 129.6 206.9 210.4 212.8 205.5 208.3 211.0 102.8 102.9 103.5 102.1 101.9 102.7 181.9 184.1 185.5 184.1 186.1 187.4 179.4 181.4 182.4 180.8 182.8 184.1 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV 1987: I H in IV n m rv n nir.... Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 9 1.2 .6 -.2 -2.6 -.7 1.1 .7 -.4 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.1 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 4.1 5.1 3.7 4.7 .8 3.3 .2 .6 .5 3.2 .1 .5 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 4.1 5.7 3.5 6.3 5.1 4.6 4.4 3.5 5.8 5.1 2.8 1.6 .0 2.1 2.2 3.3 .3 .0 1.6 2.2 1.5 2.3 2.0 4.8 4.2 2.6 2.8 2.6 5.0 4.7 2.4 4.8 2.7 2.6 1.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.1 1.0 4.8 2.8 3.0 4.3 1.9 2.7 4.8 7.2 1.5 2.6 4.7 7.1 -3.3 -2.0 1.0 3.4 -3.8 -2.1 1.0 3.4 1.4 .1 .9 4.3 1.1 -.6 1.2 4.5 2.5 3A 2.6 1.4 2.8 2.5 3.0 1.7 1.9 5.5 .9 3.2 2.0 6.1 1.2 2.8 2.6 5.7 5.8 5.2 2.5 5.4 5.4 5.9 -1.0 1.1 1.0 .7 -1.1 .1 8.0 2.6 5.0 -.3 7.1 2.0 3.8 1.5 5.1 4.1 4.8 1.0 4.3 3.2 5.9 3.7 .6 1.9 3.7 1.7 1.3 4.8 6.8 4.7 4.9 5.6 5.3 -.6 .4 2.3 3.7 5.1 3.0 6.2 4.5 2.8 3.3 4.6 2.4 2.8 4.4 2.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984.. . -0.3 1.5 7 2.4 2.6 -0.4 1.1 9 3.0 2.1 — 1.1 2.1 -3.1 4.2 8.4 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 -0.8 .6 24 1.8 5.7 07 .6 -2.4 2.0 6.0 10.5 9.3 7.5 3.8 4.1 10.5 9.5 7.4 4.0 3.9 1985... 1986 1987. 1988 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.1 2.0 4.2 3.1 4.2 4.9 3.9 3.0 4.4 5.4 2.2 .8 3.0 3.2 2.6 .9 3.2 3.4 4.4 5.2 3.9 4.8 2.6 3.3 1.5 1.5 .8 2.0 1.6 .9 .8 .4 -.5 10.4 3.5 3.6 4.0 -1.2 9.8 3.1 3.5 3.7 -3.0 6.8 2.0 2.1 3.2 -3.1 8.1 2.2 2.7 3.3 .5 2.6 3.8 2.8 .4 3.2 3.5 2.5 4.7 5.6 6.7 7.1 5.2 6.1 6.6 7.0 4.2 2.9 2.8 4.2 2.5 -2.1 3.1 .2 2.8 -1.6 3.3 1.9 4.4 3.3 4.0 3.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.1 1.6 1.7 13 1.1 2.5 4.8 2.3 3.6 2.4 2.8 3.7 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV 1987: I n m rv 1988: I n m IV 1989- I nr ni .... 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars, 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 -2.6 .8 .7 1.4 K . 7 2.8 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Beginning with data released August 3, 1989, hours of labor input are defined as hours at the work site rather than hours paid. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PEODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIOM Industrial production rose slightly in November and capacity utilization fell slightly. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) ?60 INK X, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 240 FINAL PRODUCTS 220 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 140 ENSE AND SPACE EQU PMENT 200 120 --—1 " 180 " r^—- \ ,--, BUSINESS 100 mni.Min 160 160 liiiilinii umlnm '40 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION J^~- "*w 140 -*s— -**-• !20 ""T""" __---' CONSUMER GOODS 120 100 -UiiiLiuii Hllihllll! iniiliiiil imilmn PER CENT* 100 140 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 90 120 UTILITIES ^ 80 -.—•—1 - 100 70 - iillliLjim iiJiLiiim 1985 1989 1986 IlllllUlil 1987 miilmii 1988 IlllllUlil 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTtD SOURCE: SOARD OF GOVERNORS OF TH£ FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period Index, 1977=100 Capacity utilization rate, p< rcent * Percent change from year earlier .. Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 100.0 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137 2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 • 1988- Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr Aue r Sept r Oct r NOV p 1 Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100 Manufacturing -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 1.9 1.1 3.8 5.7 84.21 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.7 142.7 49.10 109.1 111.1 98.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 141.9 35.11 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.8 130.1 136.8 143.9 9.83 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 100.7 103.4 5.96 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 114.3 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 83.3 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.1 83.5 139.9 140.4 5.1 4.9 145.8 146.3 145.2 145.7 146.7 147.1 104.7 104.9 113.7 115.4 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.4 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 142.0 141.9 142.5 142.1 141.3 141.5 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.0 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.4 1.2 147.2 146.8 147.0 148.0 148.1 148.7 148.5 149.2 148.7 147.5 147.8 146.2 145.9 145.8 146.9 147.1 147.4 146.8 147.8 146.9 144.3 14:11 148.5 148.1 148.6 149.6 149.5 150.5 150.8 151.1 151.2 103.0 100.9 101.5 102.4 102.0 101.5 102.1 J02.4 '03.1 103.6 103.7 114.0 116.5 117.5 117.1 115.6 114.3 114.0 113.3 114.3 115.1 i 14.8 84.3 83.9 83.8 84.2 84.0 84.0 8o.7 83.9 83.4 82.8 82.7 84.7 84.3 84.1 84.5 84.3 84.4 84.0 84.2 83.7 82.8 82.7 ir/2.'! .!5i.7 Output a-i percent of capacity. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Materials Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total l Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total EnerKJ 1977 proportion 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 44.77 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 136.8 144.3 25.52 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 133.9 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 125.3 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.6 137.1 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.9 158.2 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 157.6 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185.8 12.94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.4 151.5 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.5 138.6 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.5 162.5 42.28 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 125.2 11.69 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.& 103.3 99.T 99.8 101.5 1988: Nov Dec 146.8 147.7 136.8 138.2 129.2 131.9 139.7 140.5 159.9 160.4 161.2 162.6 182.2 180.5 154.2 155.0 140.7 141.4 165.7 166.7 128.3 128.3 102.3 102.6 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sept r Oct T. Novp 148.2 148.6 148.9 150.2 150.4 151.2 150.2 151.1 150.5 148.8 149.4 138.5 138.7 138.4 139.5 139.2 139.9 138.7 139.3 138.9 139.5 139.2 131.5 131.6 130.1 132.2 131.2 130.8 127.3 128.7 127.7 126.4 125.7 141.1 141.4 141.4 142.2 142.1 143.3 142.8 143.2 143.1 144.3 144.2 161.1 161.6 162.8 164.3 165.4 166.1 165.5 166.8 165.9 161.1 163.1 163.8 165.0 166.3 167.8 169.1 169.6 168.5 169.9 168.7 164.1 166.2 180.0 179.3 178.7 179.9 180.7 181.1 182.0 182.7 182.1 175.7 177.1 156.6 155.1 156.1 156.5 156.3 157.0 157.5 157.5 157.7 158.4 158.5 142.3 139.5 139.3 140.2 140.2 141.2 142.2 141.5 140.7 141.4 142.0 168.8 168.4 170.4 170.4 170.0 170.4 170.6 171.2 172.2 172.9 128.1 127.4 127.3 128.2 127.9 127.7 128.3 128.8 128.5 128.2 128.0 100.5 100.5 101.0 101.7 101.1 99.1 99.1 99.5 100.5 100.9 100.7 1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1977=100; monthly data seasonally i Ijusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Period Total Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing cals and products Foods 1977 proportion 1980. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ... 1987 1988.. . 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.3 89.2 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.6 78.1 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 120.9 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 152.7 170.8 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.3 180.1 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 132.1 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 117.2 2.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.3 137.3 2.79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 107.4 109.1 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.1 184.2 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.2 151.9 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.8 142.7 1988: Nov Dec 92.7 90.0 80.8 77.6 124.6 125.1 175.4 177.8 182.2 180.9 135.2 136.8 122.9 125.5 139.4 143.0 110.1 108.8 188.5 188.0 157.5 158.1 145.7 145.8 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Augr Sept T Oct r Nov".. 93.2 91.1 88.4 90.1 87.2 87.3 89.2 90.3 89.2 88.5 86 2 82.2 79.1 75.9 77.0 73.2 72.9 75.4 75.9 75.4 75.7 124.5 124.5 123.8 123.1 124.8 125.2 125.4 125.5 124.7 123.9 124.1 178.7 180.8 183.0 184.7 186.5 187.5 186.7 187.8 186.8 183.2 187.3 180.9 181.7 181.6 182.2 181.6 181.9 181.4 183.7 182.8 181.5 181.0 136.7 136.4 134.8 136.4 135.5 134.2 131.3 133.2 131.8 123.3 124.3 124.9 123.4 120.4 122.0 119.7 116.4 110.4 114.2 112.7 110.1 109.6 1S9.8 132.8 133.4 135.1 135.5 137.2 136.9 136.5 135.3 136.2 110.2 110.2 109.9 111.3 111.5 111.9 111.4 111.1 111.0 110.0 193.0 194.6 198.5 200.1 199.0 200.5 199.9 200.6 202.7 202.8 203.0 159.0 158.5 159.2 159.3 158.2 159.9 162.2 161.5 159.6 161.8 146.6 146.3 145.4 146.6 147.2 147.9 147.3 148.3 148.8 150.0 iource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total '- Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1982 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions 01 dollars 1979.. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 253.0 252.8 261 3 248.0 282.4 329.6 356.6 387.0 397.7 409.7 . 201.3 194.3 204.7 194.3 228.7 271.9 292.6 315.3 320.1 328.7 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 79.8 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 42.8 47.2 50.5 50.9 49.3 49.4 51.4 50.2 48.9 50.8 109 97 100 100 124 136 150 159 165 166 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.1 71.7 77.6 80.9 411.1 415.4 425.0 1989- Jan Feb Mar May July Sepf Oct » .. Nov " 1 2 3 331.4 332.8 336.3 200.8 202.0 202.5 139.8 141.9 143.3 79.1 78.8 80.6 51.5 51.9 53.2 337.7 333.2 338.1 332.5 330.6 329.0 328.0 331.5 329.4 332.0 202.9 200.5 202.1 200.7 197.0 194.2 194.3 193.6 191.8 193.6 145.6 145.3 143.2 141.8 138.2 136.5 136.fi 135.8 134.0 135.2 82.5 81.1 84.2 79.3 80.1 81.6 80.7 83.4 83.4 84.5 52.2 51.6 51.8 52.5 53.5 53.2 53.1 54.6 54.2 53.9 r !72 163 175 171 r !60 r !58 173 r !66 r !65 '169 r !66 r !80 r !71 160 79.7 82.6 88.8 423.0 416.6 416.8 411.9 416.5 412.5 409.6 415.8 415.9 420.1 .. 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 942 Annual rates Annual rates 1988: Get Nov Dec 1,059 904 85.3 83.4 78.7 79.4 85.9 83.5 81.6 84.2 86.5 88.0 841 839 942 943 850 858 836 905 938 933 803 1,026 897 769 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) s <] McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1 unit 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1.146.4 1,081.3 2-4 units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 1 1 3.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 5 or more units 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 Units aiithori/.ed 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 Onits completed Homes sold 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 Homes for sale at end of period 1 3 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 Vacancy rate for mital housing units (percent) 2 397 337 275 253 301 353 346 357 365 366 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1988- Nov Dec 1,567 1,577 1,138 1,141 68 65 361 371 1,508 1,518 1,429 1,539 650 669 364 366 1989- Jan Feb Mar 1,678 1,465 1,409 1,343 1,308 1,406 1,420 1,329 1,264 1,428 1,361 1,199 1,029 981 1,029 977 972 1,026 990 971 1,024 1,015 66 62 50 62 42 55 57 56 57 61 51 413 374 378 252 289 379 337 283 236 343 295 1,486 1 ,403 1,230 1,334 1,347 1,308 1,281 1,328 1,319 1,356 1 342 1,537 1,610 1,459 1,552 1,442 1,355 1,372 1,439 1,360 1,312 700 621 555 607 653 647 r 738 726 652 649 369 375 377 377 380 377 r 369 365 366 364 May July Sept r Oct r Nov p 7.3 7.3 7.3 .... 1 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 2 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1971 are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 AMD INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In October, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.7 percent and inventories rose $3.3 biflion. In November,, according to advance date, ratai! sales rose 0.8 percent, following a decline of 1.3 percent in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 800 240 ^r~^~-\ 220 200 180 — ^~-^ ^^^ Kt S\ JRItS AIL INVENTC — — 160 ,-^T 140 X-»_" — r'\ iV ""RETAIL SA LES 120 X *""*" — 100 UliUI imiiiiHiimnhmi MillJmil [iillllllli ili I 200 1939 1985 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARlV-tNT OF COMMERCE MarraS'ficturing and trudft ] COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS I Sales Inventories 3 in yen U'ly-saie ratio ' Inventory-sales Retail Wholesale Who! Total 2 Durable I goods 1 stores Inventories j Nonduraj bie goods : stores [ 3 Durable goods stores Tola Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade 3 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted : 348,747 I 574,491 .96,290 100.244 113,195 114,315 115,677 123,581 132,361 1 i ! j 140.356 139.547 139.991 142,290 142,474 141.959 | 141,667 143,280 143.905 143.691 20 128,196 8.9,107 130,334 97,328 142,380 106,805 146,745 113,821 ] 52,447 119,663 162,648 j 126,785 ! 178,313 135,763 j 140,040 139,428 139,516 141,413 142,543 142,500 143,555 144,860 145,293 r 143,358 144,557 28,03 3 32,574 37,819 41,387 44,861 47,707 52.379 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.57 25 24 81 42 88,608 90,477 106,271 1 14,994 100.710 106,248 j.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 34 93 42 1381' 111,504 112,904 114,994 104,930 105,189 106,248 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.57 1.56 1.59 84 85 93 56 23 62 31 50 91 47 115,704 116,169 115,993 117,093 118,835 119.542 11.9,864 121,782 123.030 12l',274 106.880 108.016 108,700 || 109,563 111,588 112,220 132,967 113,568 113,761 114,773 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.54 1.50 1.51 1.59 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.62 1.63 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.65 68 63,469 77 ! 68,984 ! 59 ! 79,257 72,909 78,393 87,902 92,217 94.747 L53 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In October, manufacturers' shipments and new orders fell, while inventories and unfilled orders rose. In November, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 480 440 !WVFNT'"xmc:c 400 360 " ~~—i~~\ 280 IOIAL • ^ • ^ ^ B ^ S ^ ^ : i r—"—" —S. 200 D JRABLE GOC)DS 160 _ „_ - 120 • —X \ NONDURABLE C5OODS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2VU NEW ORDERS 240 60 •~- . ~^f ^ 1 TOTAL A . imilimi r-^" miRAH E GOODS _i 200 RATIO " 2.20 160 120 / INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 *—•*%— t— * 1.80 — — —" k-^~- 1 NC NDURABLE CjOODS 80 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1.60 r~^ f-v ^ 1 " ^ U • > f c A v^SX*^ \^ 1.40 60 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1985 1987 1988 1989 1.20 iMiiiiiui ,,,,,! 1985 \\ 1 1 \ \ f f t \\ iiiiiliiin 1987 1986 1988 UMlllllM 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' inventories Manufacturers' new orders 1 2 Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders z Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio 3 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 104,304 105,118 106,737 107,596 107,199 107,634 110,535 110,229 110,020 108,416 110,027 109,127 109,874 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 457,281 460,802 468,860 473,450 476,403 481,386 487,231 487,913 491.834 496,359 495,002 495,794 498,046 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.58 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.64 1.56 1.59 1.60 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 118,439 119,874 124,175 123,578 120,924 120,432 123,331 122,962 121,720 117,114 128,347 124,393 121,906 123,701 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 104,478 104,758 106,652 107,907 107,429 107,616 110,711 110,109 109,516 108,808 109,803 109,169 110,064 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 349,412 351,603 354,163 357,458 359,056 361,130 363,458 365,055 366,492 370,803 371,489 370,890 371,813 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Capital goods industries, nondefense 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 122,791 123,035 132,149 128,479 124,107 125,377 129,372 123,524 125,137 122,031 126,766 125,227 r 124,348 130,683 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 34,623 35,825 39,432 40,352 37,189 38,137 40,389 37,290 39,146 41,445 37,130 35,341 r 35,986 38,987 Total Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 .. 1987 1988 1988: Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar... May July Auff . Sept r Oct ".. . Nov p 1 2 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 222,917 224,632 230,827 231,485 228,353 228,048 234,042 233,071 231,236 225,922 238,150 233,562 231,970 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period. 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 229,735 231,766 233,666 236,810 238,165 239,330 240,486 241,689 242,295 245,813 246,378 245,621 246,431 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 119,677 119,837 120,497 120,648 120,891 121,800 122,972 123,366 124,197 124,990 125,111 125,269 125,382 3 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 227,095 228,153 238,886 236,075 231,306 233,011 239,907 233,753 235,157 230,447 236,793 234,354 234,222 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In November, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.1 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.8 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.6 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.3 percent. INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 100 100 90 90 1981 1982 1988 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Nov Dec 1989: Jan Peb Mar Apr May July r. Aue Sept Oct 1 88.0 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 109.5 109.9 111.1 112.1 112.6 113.1 114.1 114.2 113.6 113.1 114.1 114.6 114.5 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 115.1 115.2 116.7 117.8 118.8 118.1 119.1 118.4 118.3 118.7 118.0 119.6 120.5 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 107.7 108.2 109.3 110.1 110.5 111.4 112.5 112.7 112.1 111.3 112.9 112.9 112.6 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Durable Nondurable 87.1 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 104.1 104.7 115.0 115.4 98.3 98.9 106.0 107.1 107.5 109.0 110.1 110.2 109.2 108.0 109.7 110.0 109.3 116.3 116.9 117.0 116.3 117.2 117.7 117.3 117.5 119.1 118.7 118.5 100.4 101.6 102.2 104.4 105.7 105.6 104.4 102.6 104.4 105.0 104.0 Foods and feeds l Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 108.8 110.8 82.1 85.6 113.3 111.7 115.2 112.1 112.1 109.7 108.7 110.0 109.1 108.4 110.2 90.2 90.7 92.1 95.1 95.8 94.7 95.5 91.3 93.5 94.0 93.4 Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Total 85.8 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 115.8 116.2 116.9 117.4 117.5 117.4 118.2 118.8 118.8 119.0 120.2 119.8 120.2 88.6 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 107.8 108.2 109.5 110.6 111.2 112.0 113.1 112.9 112.2 111.5 112.5 113.2 113.0 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 109.0 109.5 110.8 111.3 111.9 112.5 112.7 112.4 112.2 111.9 112.3 112.3 112.2 Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Crude materials 105.5 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 113.2 112.3 115.2 114.8 116.7 114.9 113.6 112.0 113.8 113.4 113.6 112.7 113.2 Other Total 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 108.8 109.4 110.5 111.1 111.7 112.4 112.6 112.5 112.1 111.8 112.2 112.3 112.2 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 94.8 97.8 101.8 101.5 103.7 104.5 104.9 103.2 103.4 101.2 102.3 102.3 102.7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.2 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.7 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 - CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS - 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 Illllllllll 1985 60 1981 1983 1982 1984 60 1986 1987 1989 1988 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items ' Transportation Housing Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food, shelter, and energy 7.6 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 6.4 90.9 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 17.2 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 4.3 88.4 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 3.1 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 6.0 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 7.3 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 48.7 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 Shelter Period Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Ret. imp.3 .... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Nov Dec Seasonally adjusted Food Total i Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Maintenance and repairs (NSA) 16.2 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 1000 82.4 909 96.5 996 103 9 107 6 1096 113 6 118.3 42.3 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 27.8 81.0 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 7.9 19.7 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 0.2 82.4 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 120.3 120.5 120.3 120.7 120.8 121.2 120.1 120.6 128.9 129.4 134.2 134.9 133.5 133.9 115.4 115.8 105.5 106.3 117.4 117.7 110.4 110.4 117.9 118.1 81.1 79.7 142.2 142.9 89.5 89.2 124.2 124.6 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.6 125.9 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.3 124.0 124.2 124.5 124.5 124.7 125.3 125.8 122.1 122.6 123.6 124.2 125.0 125.3 125.7 125.9 126.2 126.7 127.4 120.9 121.3 121.7 121.8 122.3 122.6 123.3 123.5 123.6 124.1 124.7 129.7 130.3 131.1 131.2 131.8 132.3 133.2 133.5 133.7 134.4 135.0 135.2 136.4 138.2 137.3 137.3 138.1 140.2 139.6 138.5 139.3 140.1 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.5 136.9 137.5 138.1 138.8 139.4 140.1 116.1 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.4 118.3 118.4 118.5 118.6 118.6 119.3 106.9 106.7 106.9 107.4 107.6 107.1 107.6 107.5 107.6 107.7 108,7 117.7 117.5 119.1 119.4 120.4 119.1 118.1 116.3 118.3 119.5 119.6 111.2 111.9 112.6 115.0 116.1 115.9 115.2 114.3 113.7 114.5 114.7 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.8 119.6 119.3 118.8 118.5 118.0 118.7 119.6 80.5 81.8 83.6 93.0 96.6 95.4 93.3 89.5 87.6 88.6 86.7 144.0 145.2 145.9 146.6 147.6 148.7 149.8 150.8 152.0 153.0 154.2 89.9 90.4 91.4 96.1 97.6 96.6 95.9 94.0 93.2 93.8 93.7 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.6 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.7 128.2 128.8 129.3 1989: Feb Mar Apr May June July Sept Get Nov 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.- and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1988. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. ;e: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly datsi seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding per od Change from 3 months earfier, annual" rate Consumer goods Period Total finished goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods ( Change from 5 months ear.'ier, ammiil rats h Consumer goods Tula] finished goods Consumer goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Kmage tan, year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1980.. 1981 1982. 1983 1984. 1985 1986. 1987 1988 14.1 8.6 4.2 -.9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 -.2 5.7 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 23 2.2 4.0 11.4 9.2 39 ::t:r"" 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 :::::::::::::::.:::::::::::::::.'. 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 Change, month to month 1988- Nov Dec 1989: 0.3 .4 1.1 .9 .4 .4 .9 .1 -.5 4 .9 .4 -.1 Jan Feb Mar May July r Sept Oct ' Nov 0.3 '5 .8 -.6 .8 -.6 — .1 .3 -.6 1.4 .8 0.2 .3 3.7 3.0 5.4 2.1 2.3 3.9 3.9 1.7 3.9 4.3 7.1 5.6 2.3 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.3 4.0 1.2 1.0 .4 1.4 1.0 .1 -.9 — 1.1 1.6 .3 -.6 0.3 .1 .6 .4 .1 7.1 9.8 10.2 7.4 7.3 5.8 1.8 -3.5 -.3 3.6 5.0 7.2 9.7 13.1 4.9 4.5 -1.3 .7 -1.3 -1.3 4.5 6.2 8.8 12.0 11.1 11.8 11.7 10.4 .7 -7.4 -1.8 3.0 4.9 4.6 5.6 4.6 1.7 2.8 4.5 4.9 2.7 4.8 3.4 4.1 5.4 6.7 6.5 7.3 8.6 8.0 4.6 1.8 2.7 2.7 6.8 7.5 7.5 6.0 7.1 5.6 2.8 1.5 -1.3 2.6 2.4 5.3 7.1 7.5 10.3 11.9 10.8 6.1 1.7 4.1 1.8 -1.4 4.6 4.8 3.1 3.1 4.2 4.5 3.3 2.7 4.6 4.1 3.4 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.1 5.1 4.2 4.5 4.9 4.6 .7 0 .2 1.0 -.3 .3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Transportation Hosting Shelter Period All items 1 Total ' 12P 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 _, 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Food 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 :::: Rosters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep New cars Total ' Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food, shelter, and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 35.0 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 " '4.5 „ 0,5 0.1 0.6 .3 0.4 .8 0 2 .4 .3 .4 .7 .3 .4 .4 .5 .4 .5 .6 -.2 2 0 -.2 1.4 .3 _g — 1.1 -.8 — 1.5 1.7 5.1 5.9 4,6 5.3 4.7 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 7.4 18.8 6.8 9.4 1.5 -6.5 3.4 — 1.7 2.5 -2.4 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 1.8 18.7 2.1 — 2.1 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 0.1 .2 -0.2 -1.7 .7 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 1.0 1.6 18.0 11.9 1.3 — .5 2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 --i 3 3.7 33 3.8 4.7 0.4 .5 0.3 0.3 .3 .8 .8 .5 .5 .8 .6 1.1 5.1 1.6 -1.0 13.5 10.3 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 19 3.6 4.1 9.8 9.4 6.1 5.0 ;•;•'" Change, month to month 1988: 1989: Nov Dec 0.3 .3 0.2 .3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July .6 .4 .5 .7 .6 .3 .2 .3 .2 2 .4 .6 Au2 Sept Get Noy .2 0 .5 .4 1 .2 .3 .8 2 .6 2 .1 .4 .5 .2 .5 .6 .1 .5 .4 ,7 .2 .1 .5 .4 .2 .9 1.3 -.7 0 .6 -!1 — .8 .6 .6 i .i ,'•' .3 L ? Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, tc.—ami motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 24 0.3 0 ii.' .8 21 1.0 -.2 — .6 -.8 -.5 -.2 3 .6 .8 2 3 11.2 3.9 -1.2 -4.1 -2.1 1.1 -2.1 .7 .7 .8 .7 .8 ^ -2.0 — .9 .6 — .1 .6 .3 A .2 .5 .2 .2 .1 .4 .5 .4 5.4 6.4 2.6" Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.4 47 4.4 48 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.9 5.2 4.3 3.6 3.3 2.9 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 7.1 5.7 4.0 1.6 1.6 2.6 4.2 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in November were 1.4 percent above their October level. Prices paid by farmers in October were unchanged from their July level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) :ALE) INDE X, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SC 180 180 r 160 1 - V r- 160 ^ X/™~ \ "Vi ^-x 120 ~~^r PRICES PAID > —V — .. j — \ 140 _ ^™ '""""""" *—«—*_.,„„ • s^ ^^ 120 PRICES REC :IVED — 140 — — 100 100 — — 80 80 — niiitniii iiinliim imilmii imilmii 60. MMlllllll iiiiihnii 60 RA TIQJ> 140 RATK3^ 140 120 _ 120 100 100 80 60 - \__ -^ -— ^=p = ^ 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II ^ v _ _ ^ - —-X^__—' IIIIIIIIIM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1981 1982 1983 _ /'RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO NDEX OF PRICES PA! ^———• " 1985 1984 .,..- IIIIIIIIIM 1 | \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \\ Illllllllll 1987 1988 80 60 1989 1 1986 j. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ! OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: 1989: Nov .... Dee Jan Feb Mar.... Apr May June .... July.... Aug Sept.... Oct Nov .... All farm products Livestock and products Crops 139 133 135 142 128 123 126 138 144 145 149 148 149 147 149 147 146 144 143 145 147 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 126 136 136 140 138 136 140 141 138 134 126 126 128 129 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 151 154 150 159 161 164 162 159 161 170 158 158 161 154 156 157 157 161 160 162 163 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 175 (3) (3) 177 (3) f3) 178 (3) (3) 178 (3) (3) (3) 151 158 159 161 156 150 151 160 (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) 167 (3) Production items 148 153 152 155 151 144 147 157 (3) (3) 163 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) 164 (3) Ratio 2 92 84 84 87 79 77 79 81 83 84 85 85 85 83 84 83 82 81 80 81 83 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In November, growth slowed in Ml and accelerated in M2 and M3. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 4,800 4.400 4,000 3,600 Ml — _ M3 \ 3,200 • ~~ ' • 3,200 ' .— 2,800 2,800 ---— 2,000 --'""' ' ---1 2,400 _. •" \"~ .- — •""""" *" '"" 2,400 M2 2,000 ^ _,»• ** "" 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 _. 800 • _ 800 • ' 600 ^ ^ ,„«!.,«, 400 -TtTTTlTiTiT 1981 Ml ^ ^— 1983 1982 1984 600 ^ll||lllllll Illllllllll 1986 1985 1987 Illllllllll 1988 400 Illllllllll 1989 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVJSEHS AVERAGES OF DAIIY FIGURES; SEASONALL f ADJUSTED SOURCE, 8OARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMP balances Dec Dec Dec ... Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec... Dec 412.2 439.1 476.4 522.1 551.9 620.5 725.9 752.3 790.3 1,633.3 1,795.9 1,954.5 2,186.0 2,367.2 2,567.4 2,811.2 2,909.9 3,069.6 1,991.1 1,236.9 2,443.8 2,694.3 2,982.3 3,201.7 3,494.9 3,677.6 3,915.4 2,327.8 2,599.4 2,853.5 3,155.5 3,523.4 3,830.6 4,137.1 4,336.7 4,672.2 3,881.9 4,269.0 4,660.0 5,185.4 5,932.7 6,741.5 7,597.0 8,316.1 '9,082.2 6.8 6.5 8.5 9.6 5.7 12.4 17.0 3.6 5.1 8.9 10.0 8.8 11.8 8.3 8.5 9.5 3.5 5.5 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.7 7.4 9.2 5.2 6.5 9.5 10.0 9.2 11.3 14.4 13.8 12.7 9.5 9.2 1988- Nov... Dec 786.6 790.3 3,059.5 3,069.6 3,898.1 3,915.4 4,635.5 4,672.2 '9,018.7 '9,082.2 '4.0 3.6 4.0 3.8 '5.4 5.2 '9.2 '9.0 786.3 '787.5 786.3 '783.2 '773.4 770.3 '777.2 777.4 781.1 787.7 789.6 '3,065.9 3,069.4 3,078.5 '3,080.9 '3,072.6 '3,088.2 '3,116.8 '3,135.7 '3,153.4 3,173.4 3,195.1 3,920.2 '3,929.6 '3,951.0 '3,957.8 '3,951.2 '3,966.8 '3,993.4 '3,999.5 '4,000.7 4,010.0 4,026.4 '4,676.3 '4,689.5 '4,724.7 '4,749.1 '4,742.5 '4,752.4 '4,784.2 '4,803.4 '4,813.5 4,827.1 '9,138.9 '9,207.0 '9,269.2 '9,327.6 '9,389.3 '9,444.1 '9,494.4 '9,558.9 '9,615.3 9,681.7 1.0 1.3 .7 g -3.4 ' 51 -2.3 '-2.6 13 1.1 4.2 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.5 '.9 1.2 '3.3 '4.3 '4.9 6.0 8.0 '4.2 4.1 4.7 '4.1 '2.7 '2.6 '3.7 '3.6 '2.5 '2.6 3.8 '8.8 '8.8 '8.7 r 8.6 8.2 '8.0 '7.8 '7.6 '7.5 7.6 Period 1980: 1981: 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 19871988: 1989' Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Oct' Nov ". 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinanciaf sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli- 26 L M3 plus other liquid assets Debt Debt of domestic nonnnaneial sectors (monthly average) 1 Ml er at a simple annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other checks able deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA Small denomination time deposits l Savings deposits Large denomination tune deposits 1 NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 1980: Dec 1981: Dec. 1982: Dec 1983: Dec . . 1984- Dec 1985: Dec 1986- Dec 1987: Dec 1988- Dec 115.2 122.5 132.6 146.3 156.1 167.8 180.5 196.4 211.8 261.5 231.5 234.2 238.7 244.2 267.3 303.2 288.3 288.6 31.3 80.8 105.3 132.2 146.4 179.5 235.8 260.4 282.3 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.3 78.3 78.5 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 208.0 221.1 239.4 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.5 84.4 89.6 87.6 0.0 .0 43.2 379.2 416.9 513.5 572.5 526.3 502.7 400.2 344.0 356.9 305.6 285.4 301.6 371.0 416.4 431.3 728.6 823.2 851.0 784.0 886.3 882.6 853.9 914.1 1,025.2 260.1 302.5 326.8 327.4 417.2 436.6 439.0 487.4 537.8 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.6 84.0 109.1 124.1 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.1 84.9 90.8 105.8 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 100.4 109.1 133.5 149.4 183.6 211.9 260.7 300.1 282.3 257.5 271.3 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.2 44.7 40.6 98.8 105.3 113.6 133.2 160.7 207.4 231.0 260.3 335.8 1988: Nov Dec 210.5 211.8 287.7 288.6 281.0 282.3 75.7 78.5 237.4 239.4 87.4 87.6 506.7 502.7 431.8 431.3 1,017.8 1,025.2 534.4 537.8 128.3 124.1 101.6 105.8 108.7 109.1 264.5 271.3 40.5 40.6 323.7 335.8 1989: Jan Feb Mar 213.4 214.3 215.6 r 216.0 '216.5 r 217.3 218.0 218.4 219.4 219.7 220.2 284.0 284.8 284.3 281.4 278.2 275.0 278.8 277.5 277.3 280.4 278.9 281.3 280.9 279.1 278.5 271.4 270.7 273.2 274.4 277.3 280.3 283.0 81.8 79.0 77.4 74.5 73.5 76.0 77.6 74.9 72.3 72.8 71.2 241.7 247.2 255.5 259.3 259.3 r 265.3 r 273.9 * 284.7 T 292.4 298.4 306.5 89.3 89.6 87.6 87.7 91.6 95.1 98.2 100.6 99.1 98.7 102.0 495.2 485.3 480.3 471.3 457.0 456.9 459.8 465.4 469.1 473.0 481.7 427.8 424.6 420.8 412.8 404.7 402.0 401.5 402.3 404.2 405.8 409.3 1,035.7 1,048.3 1,061.0 1,083.1 1,105.7 1,118.5 1,126.3 1,132.1 1,132.2 1,132.5 1,132.7 544.4 551.6 558.8 567.7 572.1 573.0 573.1 569.1 563.7 560.5 559.4 270.9 125.2 100.7 109.7 128.4 r 100.1 110.6 L'65.2 130.9 ' 105.6 111.5 271.7 278.1 128.8 r 100.2 112.3 r 129.2 285.0 96.6 112.9 r '279.3 129.3 92.6 113.8 124.5 r91.3 114.6 283.0 118.0 r89.0 115.2 '290.7 113.7 84.9 115.7 307.4 110.0 80.5 116.1 316.1 110.4 81.2 40.6 39.9 41.2 41.4 41.1 41.1 42.0 42.7 41.3 40.2 334.9 344.2 349.2 359.5 352.3 351.4 351.3 355.3 348.3 344.7 May July Sept ' Oct r Nov? F 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE,—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec ... . 1988: Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit 33,401 35,315 37,388 39,184 42,321 48,493 58 140 58,693 60,706 31,711 34,679 36,754 38,410 39,134 47,175 57 313 57,916 58,990 31,714 34,827 36,940 38,412 41,739 47,674 57,616 58,399 60,234 32,887 34,996 36,888 38,623 41,468 47,4.36 56,771 57,665 59,666 152,525 161,048 173,011 188,303 201,889 219,510 241,448 257.991 '275,503 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 Nov Dec 60,853 60,706 57,991 58,990 60,314 60,234 59,733 59,666 r 274,381 * 275,503 2,861 1,716 186 130 2,322 1,244 1989: Jan Feb Mar 60,370 60,260 59,854 59,463 58,740 58,350 58,698 58,753 59,223 59,621 59,567 58,708 58,773 58,041 57,174 r 57,020 56,880 58,004 r 58,079 58,530 59,066 59,217 59,754 ''59,823 59,376 r . 58,881 58,217 57,776 58,110 58,120 58,552 59,087 59,238 59,226 59,106 58,896 r 58,687 57,709 57.445 57,733 57,869 58,285 58,602 58,821 r 1,662 1,487 1,813 2,289 1,720 1,490 694 675 693 555 349 76 97 139 213 345 431 497 490 452 330 134 1,046 1,050 3,334 1,707 1.197 917 106 41 22 21 21 . .. July Sept .. Oct Nov" 276,815 277,598 278,676 ' 278,753 ' 278,427 ' 279,060 '280,014 T 280,288 '282,045 '282,703 283,003 r r Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.9 percent in October. Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.7 percent, following a decline of 0.1 percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2..400 2,800 2,400 .ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 LOANS AND LEASES 300 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 3.-. 200 200 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES • miilimi mnlimi liiiihiin 120 1981 1983 1982 1984 mil 1985 III 1987 1986 - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVCR 120 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] AH commercial banks Loans and leases Total loans and securities 2 Period 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1988: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get" 1,307.7 1,401.5 1,553.6 ! | ! ! 1 1,723.7 1,911.4 2,094.5 2,239.6 2,417.2 2,401.4 2,410.2 2,417.2 2.422.8 2'.451.9 2,464.9 2,470.9 i 2,486.3 i 2.498.8 I 2,518.1 2,534.4 2,544.1 2,575.5 1 U.S. Government securities 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.7 309.6 335.5 361.4 355.6 358.8 361.4 360.4 361.8 368.8 370.7 373.5 373.8 374.4 376.6 378.8 391.7 Other securities Total 2 160.9 165.7 170.6 142.6 181.4 196.5 195.3 194.0 196.8 195.9 194.0 189.6 190.4 189.7 187.2 186.4 185.8 184.6 182.8 182.9 182.7 967.5 1,034.1 1,123.9 1,321.0 1,459.3 1,588.4 1,708.8 1,861.9 1,848.9 1,855.6 1,861.9 1,872.9 1,899.7 1.906.5 1,913.1 1,926.5 1,937.3 1,959.1 1,974.9 1,982.4 2,001.1 . 1 Commercial and industrial Heal estate 355.4 392.6 414.1 472.9 499.7 536.2 562.7 601.9 601.6 601.8 601.9 606.6 619.0 617.8 620.6 626.3 624.9 632.1 637.3 636.9 641.1 284.1 299.8 330.8 376.3 425.8 494.0 589.0 672.0 659.8 665.3 672.0 678.9 685.6 691.8 699.5 705.5 712.0 719.9 729.0 734.4 741.1 vidual 182.5 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.8 315.9 329.5 355.5 351.6 353.0 355.5 357.9 358.9 360.6 362.9 365.4 366.0 367.0 369.3 372.1 374.4 Security 21.5 25.4 28.1 34.3 42.7 40.1 34.4 38.5 38.5 38.2 38.5 37.7 44.7 43.6 40.0 38.1 41.3 40.5 39.9 40.6 42.3 Nonbank financial institutions 29.9 31.3 30.5 31.4 32.5 35.0 31.9 30.0 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.3 30.6 29.7 29.2 28.7 30.3 31.4 31.8 32.1 33.3 Agricultural 33.1 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.6 29.4 30.7 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 State and political subdivisions Foreign banks 18.1 0.0 14.8 .0 13.4 3.3 11.1 46.0 9.7 56.7 9.6 58.4 7.5 52.5 7.6 46.8 7.6 48.5 8.1 47.7 7.6 46.8 7.8 44.4 8.5 44.5 8.2 44.6 8.3 44.6 9.4 44.7 44.5 | 9.3 8.9 ! 44.2 9.3 43.9 8.5 43.5 9.8 42.9 i Dais are prorated average? of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of inantlvend de,i.a for foreTjp-re'aied institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for caH.ier periods, largely.because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of Statrs and political sub-iivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. Indi- 'J Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables Other 7.2 5.9 9.4 7.9 12.7 13.3 13.7 16.0 19.0 22.3 24.5 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.3 30.3 31.0 31.6 23.1 26.6 31.8 31.2 36.3 39.4 42.1 44.8 47.5 47.0 44.8 44.4 42.7 45.2 42.9 43.3 44.1 49.9 49.5 48.6 50.5 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal l Securities and mortgages Total Total 1979 323.7 323.3 377.4 303.0 419.2 495.0 457.3 510.7 r 486.3 r 508.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 352.3 344.9 352.6 r 372.5 126.1 123.1 137.9 60.7 133.5 158.7 105.0 165.8 133.6 135.8 60.3 70.7 91.8 50.3 78.3 95.1 50.9 123.0 69.0 77.0 r r 138.6 141.1 156.2 107.2 1988: I 507.6 508.3 " 528.5 488.8 n m IV r 1989- I r 483.8 536.6 440.3 n Trf 369.0 367.2 r 372.3 381.6 361.9 364.8 373.1 r !21.9 171.8 67.3 r 30.6 158.0 25.4 Loans and short-term paper 9.0 30.5 25.4 -1.7 44.6 -9.1 30 95.5 109.4 82.0 21.0 r 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 . . 38.1 7.7 57.3 81.3 43.3 95.3 58.9 r 52 2 30.5 -22.8 1 Undistributed proSts (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Total Other 2 51.3 40.2 66.4 52.0 33.7 104.2 53.9 64.0 30.9 69.3 38.2 28.1 38.7 74 3 r Increase in financial assets Capital Credit market funds 82.8 127.5 48.2 65.8 52.5 46.0 10.4 55.2 r 63.6 54.1 r 42.9 64.6 r 58.8 r 368.3 341.6 382.9 302.7 392.0 473.0 422.9 r 448.2 453.9 r 473.4 238.6 243.2 285.9 255.7 269.9 367.9 339.9 328.8 348.3 380.4 470.9 474.1 500.8 447.7 359.2 380.7 390.1 391.8 111.7 93.3 110.8 55.9 4.45.5 505.1 415.1 376.0 388.8 386.6 69.6 116.4 28.5 r r r r r 91.3 13.8 41.9 -44.6 -18.3 -5.6 .3 27.2 22.0 34.4 62.6 32.4 r 34.9 129.8 98.4 97.0 47.0 122.1 105.1 83.0 119.3 105.6 92.9 r 43.1 31.7 74.3 86.2 tures 3 Discrepancy {sources less uses) r T r r 36.7 34.3 27.7 41.1 38.3 31.4 25.2 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding l Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1980- Dec 1981: 19821983: 1984: 1985: 19861987: 19881988: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dec NEW SERIES: 1989- Jan Feb Mar Mav July Sept T Oct p Other Total Automobile Revolving Mobile home Other Revolving 297,566 310,682 323,536 367,868 442,538 517,755 572,047 607,721 659,507 649,132 654,413 659,507 111,936 118,956 124,218 143,799 173,704 209,636 247,313 265,976 281,174 278,902 279,926 281,174 54,894 60,838 66,243 78,667 100,212 122,013 137,013 153,884 174,792 170,131 173,030 174,792 18,621 20,302 22,833 23,704 25,795 26,834 27,355 26,387 25,744 26,033 26,005 25,744 112,115 110,586 110,242 121,698 142,827 159,272 160,367 161,475 177,798 174,066 175,452 177,798 1,083 13,116 12,854 44,332 74,670 75,217 54,292 35,674 51,786 2,576 5,281 5,094 -539 7,020 5,262 19,581 29,905 35,932 37,677 18,663 15,198 341 1,024 1,248 1,537 5,944 5,405 12,424 21,545 21,801 15,000 16,871 20,908 1,858 2,899 1,762 414 1,681 2,531 871 2,091 1,039 521 -968 643 -152 28 -261 -329 -1,529 — 344 11,456 21,129 16,445 1,095 1,108 16,323 1,211 1,386 2,346 682,020 687,397 691,162 693,911 698,132 700,849 700,344 703,001 704,371 707,706 286,382 288,767 288,850 289,654 290,741 290,192 288,526 288,533 287,754 288,845 176,716 178,570 182,831 184,500 186,502 189,622 191,028 194,398 195,302 196,339 26,036 25,992 24,168 23,993 23,952 23,685 23,630 22,938 22,991 22,965 192,886 194,068 195,314 195,763 196,936 197,349 197,161 197,132 198,324 199,557 (2) 5,377 3,765 2,749 4,221 2,717 505 2,657 1,371 3,335 (2) 2,385 82 804 1,087 -549 1,667 7 -779 1,091 (2) 1,854 4,261 1,670 2,002 3,120 1,406 3,370 904 1,036 (2) -44 -1,824 174 — 41 267 -56 692 53 26 (2) 1,182 1,246 449 1,173 413 -189 29 1,192 1,233 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Because of break in series, net change not available. Mobile home Automobile Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell slightly in December. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 1931 1982 SOURCE; SEE IABIE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1981 3-month bills (new issues)1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 1988- Dec 1989: Jan.. Feb Mar. . Mav, June July Sept Oct. Nov Dec p Week ended: 1989: Dec 2 9 16 23 30 30 Prime rate charged 5 by banks New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)" 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.22 9.32 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 9.57 8.97 6.50-6.50 10.50-10.50 9.62 9.64 9.80 9.79 9.57 9.10 8.93 8.96 9.01 8.92 8.89 8.85 9.02 9.35 9.97 9.78 9.29 8.80 8.35 8.32 8.50 8.24 8.00 7.92 6.50-6.50 6.50-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00- 10.50-10.50 10.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50- 9.39 9.52 9.82 9.99 10.17 10.18 10.42 10.48 10.22 10.24 10.11 10.09 8.88 8.86 8.85 8.85 7.90 7.86 7.94 7.94 7.00-7.00 7 00 7 00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00- 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50- 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 8.09 8.29 8.48 8.83 8.70 8.40 8.22 7.92 7.91 7.72 r 7.63 r 7.65 7.64 9.11 9.11 7.66 9.20 9.32 9.61 9.40 8.98 8.37 7.83 8.13 8.26 8.02 7.80 7.76 9.09 9.17 9.36 9.18 8.86 8.28 8.02 8.11 8.19 8.01 7.87 7.83 7.41 7.47 7.61 7.49 7.25 6.97 6.97 7.08 7.27 7.22 7.13 7.01 7.63 7.55 7.60 7.62 7.77 7.76 7.77 7.74 7.72 7.85 7.84 7.82 7.78 7.00 7.01 7.01 6.99 7.04 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 5 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Prime commercial paper, l 6 months r 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 8 Effective rate {in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in December. CAIE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOS INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 rnMpnsiTF STOCK PRICE NDEY f- 180 v ^ r 140 120 ^ ^y\ (NYSE) 160 -/ 240 220 200 180 " 160 140 120 100 100 ^j 80 60 40 ' ^-W y 1 80 ^—^1 60 i 40 M.,,1,,,,1 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1987 1986 1989 1988 PERCENT PERC ENT 20 15 10 ^ ~ ~ NGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMM (S&P1 \ r^""" ^ 5 0 1 i 1 1 1 ! 1982 1981 SOURCES; NEW YORK 1 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1 \ 1 1985 1984 STOCK EXCHANGE A NO STANDARD & POC 1 10 . —• r ^ i ti . , i 1 1 1986 1987 1 1 1 1988 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 . Industrial 1 Transportation 0 5 New York Stock Exchange indexes (] Composite 1 1989 3R'S CORPORATION Common stock prices l Period 1 O) Common stock yields (percent) 5 2 Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74,30 71.77 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 1988: Dec 155.35 187.75 144.07 74.81 128.83 2,148.58 276.51 3.68 8.56 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec *> 160.40 165.08 164.60 169.38 175.30 180.76 185.15 192.93 193.02 192.49 188.50 192.54 194.62 200.00 199.20 204.81 211.51 216.75 221.74 231.32 230.86 229.40 224.38 229.98 153.09 162.66 160.14 164.32 168.88 173.47 179.32 197.52 202.02 190.36 174.26 177.19 75.87 77.84 77.66 79.69 84.07 87.95 90.40 92.90 93.44 94.67 94.95 99.61 132.26 137.19 137.91 143.26 146.60 154.08 157.78 164.86 165.51 166.55 160.89 155.60 2,234.68 2,304.30 2,283.11 2,348.91 2,439.55 2,494.90 2.554.03 2,691.11 2,693.41 2,692.01 2,642.49 2,727.17 285.41 294.01 292.71 302.25 313.93 323.73 331.93 346.61 347.33 347.40 340.22 348.31 3.64 3.59 3.68 3.59 3.52 3.44 3.38 3.28 3.29 3.29 3.39 3.32 191.54 193.08 193.94 190.31 228.64 230.66 231.70 227.39 175.81 179.56 178.95 172.98 96.37 98.15 100.26 99.91 161.31 159.39 156.62 150.63 2,707.94 2,736.86 2,746.93 2,696.72 346.32 349.16 350.81 344.24 3.37 3.33 3.29 3.33 .. Week ended: 1989: Dec 2 9 16 23 1 Average 2 Includes 3 Includes 4 Includes 5 of daily closing prices. all the*stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. 30 stocks. 500 stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesda1 closing prices. Earnings- 8.46 7.93 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter, NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 2 months of fiscal 1990, there was a deficit of $55.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $56.1 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS!' 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 OUTLAYS^ 900 900 800 800 RECEIPTS.!/ 700 700 600 600 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT t-)!-/ -100 -100 ^ ^^^ ^\^ -200 -200 ^^ A ^1981 i i 1982 , 1983 1984 i 1985 " 1986 N 1987 1988 1989 1990^ FISCAL YEARS I INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. / COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFfiCE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ! 1990 (estimates) 2 Cumulative total, first 2 Fiscal year 1989 Fiscal year 1990 1 2 Outlays Receipts Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 49 7 -54.9 -38.2 -72.7 -73.9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 66.4 28.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 3.2 -1.4 3.9 -4.3 -2.0 -1.1 -5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 495.5 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 931.6 957.1 -221.6 -237.9 -169.3 - 193.9 -204.5 -163.8 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 286.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 211.2 222.3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.4 64.5 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,865.7 3,084.8 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.2 2,188.8 2,279.2 148.9 155.9 -56.2 -53.8 35.2 37.5 35.1 38.8 .0 -1.3 2,658.0 2,926.9 2,091.6 2,241.5 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.7 14 7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.8 1,080.1 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,142.9 1,179.4 -212.3 -221.2 -149.7 -155.1 -152.1 -99.2 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.1 793.3 127.9 139.6 184.0 194.7 -56.1 -55.0 92.7 102.1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 18, 1989. Data include asset sales. 32 Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) 705 -13.3 NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 2 months of fiscal 1990, receipts were $11.7 billion higher than a /ear earlier and outlays were $10.7 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 RECEIPTS!/ 400 . INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES_ 400 300 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 . CORPORATION. INCOME TAXES 200 OTHER RECEIPTS Tf. 100 100 0 0 900 900 OUTLAYS^/ 800 - NONDEFENSE 800 1 , - 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 . NATIONAL DEFENSE^ 300 300 200 200 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-8UDGET AMD OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.8 1,080.1 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 484.6 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 117.0 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 387.5 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 82.4 91.0 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,142.9 1,179.4 127.9 139.6 61.1 69.9 3.2 3.1 48.9 51.1 14.6 15.5 184.0 194.7 Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980... 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 * 1990 (estimates) 2 Cumulative total, first 2 months: Fiscal year 1989 Fiscal year 1990 1 National defense Social insurance taxes and contributions Other Social securi- Net interest Other ty 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 56.4 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 97.1 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.8 145.4 188.8 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 249.1 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 169.3 176.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 157.7 142.4 8.0 8.6 12.5 15.2 19.9 21.2 36.8 39.3 26.6 29.7 29.1 33.0 Health 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 296.3 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 286.9 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 16.4 50.6 45.2 49.1 43.7 .6 2.6 Total Department of Defense, military Medicare x Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. See footnote 2, page 32. NOTE.—Data, are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 2 Income security International affairs Total 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts fell $10.0 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures fell $10.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) --K\ -200 I 1981 1 I 1 1982 I I J I I 1985 1984 1983 -200 I I 1986 I I 1987 J I 1988 J I 1989 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 Calendar year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982- IV 1983- IV. 1984- IV 1985- IV 1986: IV 1987: HI IV 1988- I II III IV 1989- I II III r Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Transfer payments Net interest paid Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit <-), national income and product accounts 55.8 962.3 1,028.0 1,060.4 1,104.0 341.5 368.6 375.5 378.6 374.0 394.6 411.2 432.7 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.6 128.3 134.6 138.8 149.0 20.7 22.8 31.9 35.1 -0.1 .0 .1 1 -185.5 -212.8 -163.1 — 145.4 76.3 83.8 101.0 111.4 46.4 70.2 69.7 78.8 88.9 107.4 103.1 55.1 50.5 53.8 56.7 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 50.8 53.8 54.5 310.9 332.1 350.8 391.3 236.1 259.8 290.7 317.7 337.9 352.2 359.7 985.6 1,034.8 1,072.8 1,118.3 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,042.8 1,065.5 1,101.7 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 384.5 388.1 380.1 399.9 414.3 438.2 347.4 352.5 362.1 385.8 405.8 414.3 421.9 99.7 106.8 102.6 111.4 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 103.0 101.7 102.2 130.1 135.6 141.7 151.4 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.0 142.5 147.3 20.3 26.0 32.6 38.0 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.2 22.7 41.9 2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 .2 -.2 -196.9 -206.9 -161.4 -145.8 -202.6 -169.2 -187.5 -212.2 -189.0 -143.9 - 164.4 104.2 111.6 114.0 115.8 117.0 109.7 99.9 55.9 55.9 57.4 57.8 58.0 58.2 59.4 382.0 388.2 394.5 400.6 414.3 420.2 424.8 1,096.5 1,114.7 1,099.8 1,162.1 1,183.7 1,198-6 1,181.1) 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 399.0 406.0 402.7 433.0 434.4 438.0 447.6 460.4 466.9 475.6 110.1 112.2 111.0 112.2 118.7 118.4 118.3 144.9 149.9 153.9 157.0 167.0 172.0 171.2 34.4 41.2 29.4 38.9 38.5 35.3 20.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -151.8 -141.5 -122.5 -167.6 -147.5 -145.4 — 144.7 340.4 357.0 401.2 408.0 74.6 81.1 97.7 108.3 55.9 50.9 53.4 788.7 827.9 911.4 972.4 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 853.8 921.5 937.4 346.4 361.4 405.8 413.0 303.0 291.9 326.0 355.3 376.2 408.1 420.0 944.7 973.2 977.3 994.6 1.036.2 1,053.2 1,043.2 402.7 417.5 411.4 420.3 446.8 465.1 459.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of ilronomie Analysis Total Purchases of goods and services Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises 305.8 326.1 345.0 386.4 776.8 815.2 897.3 958.6 34 Contributions for social insurance Grantsin-aid to State and local governments INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100) Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom United States 1 Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987.... 1988 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 104.8 106.9 96.5 102.7 115.2 121.6 121.5 128.3 136.3 119.0 120.3 120.7 124.5 136.1 141.0 140.8 145.7 159.1 107.2 106.1 105.0 105.0 106.1 106.1 107.2 109.4 114.3 108.0 105.9 102.7 103.3 106.2 111.0 113.0 113.7 118.1 114.8 113.0 109.5 105.9 109.5 110.7 114.7 119.3 126.4 99.8 96.7 98.5 102.2 102.4 107.9 110.2 114.1 118.2 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 76.1 85.6 94.9 100.4 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 90.9 95.4 98.0 99.9 102.1 104.2 104.9 105.0 105.7 72.2 81.8 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 124.3 86.7 92.2 97.1 100.3 102.7 104.9 104.7 105.0 106.2 63.2 75.4 87.7 100.8 111.5 121.1 128.5 134.4 141.1 78.5 87.9 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.1 114.9 119.7 125.6 1988- Oct Nov 139.4 139.9 140.4 136.9 136.2 137.1 160,2 165.0 166.1 113.2 118.0 117.3 119.4 119.1 121.2 127.6 129.1 132.2 118.7 119.3 118.3 120.2 129.3 120.5 124.8 125.1 125.1 106.9 106.5 106.2 125.6 125.8 126.0 106.4 106.7 106.9 143.3 144.5 145.0 128.7 129.2 129.6 167.3 164.5 172.5 166.3 167.3 170.7 167.6 171.4 168.5 118.2 117.4 116.6 120.3 118.4 117.9 118.1 117.8 116.3 116.4 118.1 119.8 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.6 125.9 125.7 126.6 127.2 127.6 128.9 129.6 130.4 130.5 130.7 131.2 131.6 106.0 105.7 106.2 108.1 108.7 108.6 108.4 108.3 109.2 110.0 126.5 126.8 127.2 128.0 128.5 128.7 129.0 129.2 129.5 130.1 108.1 108.4 108.6 109.2 109.5 109.6 109.5 109.4 109.6 146.1 147.3 148.0 149.0 149.6 150.3 150.7 150.9 151.6 153.1 153.7 130.4 131.4 131.9 134.3 135.1 135.6 135.7 136.1 137.0 138.1 139.2 Dec 1989- Jan Feb 140.8 136.7 140.5 137.4 r 140.7 !37.1 141.7 138.0 141.6 138.3 142.0 ' 137.8 141.9 * 137.5 r 142.5 r!37.8 ' 142.1 138.4 r 141 3 141 5 Mar May T 3 July J , Sept Oct" Noy" 1 r l!8.6 '119.8 r !21.0 r !21.0 118.4 127.9 121.2 130.3 120.5 121.3 126.9 127.0 124.3 118.6 125.3 128.9 123.6 130.7 125.0 125.1 ' 129.1 r 125.0 128.7 123 3 Data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysi and International Trade Administration). id In U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value): General merchandise imports (customs value) 3 Principal end-use commodity category Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 . 1988 . . Total 2 116.4 205.6 224.0 4 218.8 "227.2 254.1 322.4 Trade balance Principal end-use commodity category Foods, feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other 2 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 15.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 20.7 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 Total 244.0 258.0 325.7 345.3 365.4 406.2 441.0 Foods feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other 17.1 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 112.0 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 39.7 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 6.5 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 General merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) Exports (l.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 -27.5 -52.4 -101.7 -126.5 -138.3 152 1 -118.5 -38.4 -64.2 -122.4 -133.6 -155.1 -170.3 -137.1 1988- Oct Nov Dec 27.9 27.5 28.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 6.8 7.0 7.4 9.4 9.4 10.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 4.4 4.0 3.6 37.1 38.1 39.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 9.9 9.8 10.2 8.2 9.1 9.1 7.7 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.3 9.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 38.6 39.6 41.3 -9.2 -10.5 -10.8 -10.7 — 12.1 -12.5 1989: 29.0 28.8 30.1 30.8 30.5 31.3 30.5 30.6 30.7 31.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 7.1 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.8 9.4 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 10.6 10.9 10.6 11.7 10.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.7 4.4 37.9 38.2 39.5 39.0 40.5 39.3 38.7 40.7 39.2 41.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.2 10.7 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.7 11.4 11.4 11.4 10.3 11.7 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.9 9.5 9.1 10.2 9.6 9.8 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 8.9 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 39.5 39.7 41.2 40.7 42.2 40.9 40.4 42.4 40.8 43.0 -8.9 -9.4 -9.5 -8.3 -10.1 -8.0 -8.2 -10.1 -8.5 -10.2 -10.5 -10.9 -11.2 -9.9 -11.7 -9.6 -9.9 -11.9 -10.1 -12.0 Jan Feb Mar May T J July Sept r Oct 1 2 3 4 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments. Includes undocumented exports to Canada. Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical month basis. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 1989, the current account deficit fell to $22.7 billion, from $32.1 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLL \RS* BILL ONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 5 5 ^ . ' V 3\ 0 0 A ' \ A\ v - . i.A\ ,. \\ '— x \>, V -10 -15 -5 -10 -15 \N \ -20 "X B,UANCE ON G OODS AND SERVIC ES V, ,-A A ^ / \ -*%\ s ^'J•*, * \_ \ /Hr X :"*0sj A,\ERCHANDISE -40 * ^1 '\^^\ ""\ t ... hX .J * i1 r* k^"^-' 1 f >CA, TRADE / // >jw -20 -25 -30 35 CURRENT A CCOUNT -40 BALANCE 1 -45 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1 1981 1983 1984 1 1 1 1 1 1 1986 1985 i i i 1 1987 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1989 -45 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMEN I OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits ( —)] Merchandise [ 2 Investment income 3 Period Exports 1980 1981 1982 1983. 1984 1985. 1986 1987 1988 1986: HI IV 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I r n. m*.... 1 2 3 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,820 219,900 215,935 223,367 250,266 319,251 56,182 56,490 57,255 60,015 64,297 68,699 76,447 78,471 80,604 83,729 87,919 91,423 91,569 Imports Net balance -249,749 OCK ncq -25,480 -247,642 -268,900 -332,422 -338,083 -368,425 -409,766 -446,466 —36,444 67 080 -112,522 122 148 -145,058 159 500 -127^215 -36,801 -38,591 38 661 -39,819 -40,606 -40,414 33 446 -31,411 -30,339 -32,019 -28,378 -27,554 -27,751 -92,983 -95,081 -95,916 -99,834 - 104,903 -109,113 - 109,893 -109,882 -110,943 -115,748 -116,297 -118,977 -119,320 O7 070 Receipts Payments 72,506 -42,119 co 090 86,412 83,548 -54,884 77,251 52 376 85,908 -67,419 88,832 -62,901 88,615 -66,968 QO 4,90 104,703 107,775 - 105,548 21,744 -15,729 20,822 -16,350 25,117 -19,755 22,744 -20,554 23,578 -21,904 33,265 -20,207 26,750 -23,955 23,148 -25,613 24,720 -27,310 33,159 -28,670 26,830 -29,246 26,644 -32,765 33,808 -31,197 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Net 30,387 34,083 28,664 24,875 18,489 25,931 21,647 22,283 2,227 6,015 4,472 5,362 2,190 1,674 13,058 2,795 -2,465 -2,590 4,489 -2,416 -6,121 2,611 Net military transactions -2,577 1 fi93 -474 -343 -2,099 -3,557 -4,576 2 857 -4,606 -1,089 -777 -176 -210 -1,031 -1,440 -964 -1,033 -1,006 -1,604 - 1,498 -1,518 -968 Net travel and transportation receipts -997 144 992 -4,227 7 885 -9,832 -8,031 -7,324 -2,633 -1,874 -2,241 -1,965 -2,088 -1,279 -1,993 -1,854 -719 -155 94 -297 91 193 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account 1,533 9,126 7 593 7,794 8,163 15,810 -7,647 11,085 -6,997 2,191 11,436 -9,188 -44,286 12,264 -34,510 -9,776 104 186 12 468 12,299 -91,718 12,351 -97,256 - 15,426 -112,682 15 778 - 133,249 18,547 -117,470 17,909 129 488 -14,212 -143,700 14 656 126 548 20,335 -Hli892 -33,586 -29,210 -4,376 4,539 4,807 -32,330 -4,136 -36,466 4,250 -31,190 -3,137 -34,327 -38,820 4,372 -35,555 -3,265 4,555 -36,687 -3,225 -39,912 4,734 -26,055 -4,586 -30,641 4,787 -28,682 -3,364 -32,046 -2,899 -33,485 5,042 -30,586 -28,964 -3,376 -32,340 5,126 5,381 -23,659 -5,018 -28,677 5,725 -26,864 -3,526 -30,390 -2,868 -32,084 5,886 -29,216 6,884 -19,031 -3,656 -22,687 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.7 billion in the third quarter of 1989, in contrast to a decrease of $27.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $25.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $21.4 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* -20 -40 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow ( + )] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capital outflow ( — }] Period Total U.S. official reserve2 assets l -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 -22,304 — 32,628 -99,665 -76,218 -82,110 -8,155 -5.175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 312 9,149 — 3,566 -26,078 -33,422 280 132 n m 8,759 -22,632 -25,976 -36,370 n m 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets -72,802 -5,162 -5,097 -100,679 -6,131 -110,058 -5,006 -43,576 -13,685 -5,489 -2,821 -25,950 97 954 2 024 -86,363 997 2,999 -81,543 58,112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,605 218,039 219,299 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,083 35,594 45,193 38,882 -1,565 11 -24,793 -33,565 69,927 62,339 15,785 1,251 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 172,847 180,418 54,142 61,088 1,956 3,419 32 3,742 40 -195 308 843 6,763 -25,856 -26,316 -40,955 33,381 51,134 73,575 59,949 14,040 10,329 753 20,070 4,540 -16,119 -37,886 -32,648 1.503 39 -7,380 2,272 -1,490 -885 1,961 3,413 4,528 -15,273 -32,467 -38,332 27,027 65,334 46,179 80,759 -31,318 377 HI".... -47,156 -4,000 -12,095 -5,996 1,049 -309 644 -28,367 12,781 -41,804 60,007 -1,789 72,482 1986 1987 1988 1986: III IV 1987: I IV 1988: I IV 1989: I r n 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,152 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 25,322 18,663 34,404 9,194 23,869 15.298 11,308 1,878 — 10,641 -10,263 7,549 -4,669 4,463 48,087 48,511 19,341 40,805 72,822 39,879 -7,813 10,318 -7,687 7,062 3,895 -2,559 -4,501 3,166 48,824 45,140 45,070 45,798 24,631 5,895 2 234 10^589 2,396 59,438 48,413 70,170 479 -15,729 24,047 - 19,434 3,843 -3,714 -4,556 4,431 43,186 41,028 47.788 47,802 7,478 -5,201 11,246 52,529 3,412 61,236 1,702 33,496 -2,639 4,127 — 2,311 -5,115 49,854 60,502 68,418 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Departm Treasurv. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign). Subscription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1989 0—25-082