Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1986
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ft. SL
99th Congress, 2d Session
Economic Indicators
DECEMBER
1986
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1986
Documents Department
St Louis Public Library
• • A i i i 1 •; PR?
87-13-P
St. Louis, Ma 631M
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman
JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
BOBBI FIEDLER (California)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
PETE WILSON (California)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
Scorr LILLY, Executive Director
ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter of 1986, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.4
percent (annual rate) or $65.1 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2 8 percent and the implicit
price deflator rose 3.6 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS fRATIO SCALE)
4,400
SEAJ ONAllY ADJUSTED A NNUAl RATES
^-~^
4,000
—--"I
GN P
INCURREN1 DOLLARS\'S
3,600
-s
,.
3,200
p.
^
.-1
^
4,000
r"*^
___*-—«*_
3,600
3,2CX)
" ~"-"-*~f£Z"^Zm
GNP
2,400
—
IN 1982 DOLLARS
>
^
2,800
2,800
-^ ^
^
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1
1
1978
1
|
I
I
\
1979
\
I
1980
I
1
i
|
1981
i
i
1
I
I
1983
1982
i
i i i
i i
1984
sOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1
1
1
1,600
1986
1985
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER 5
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Gross
national
product
2,249.7
2,508.2
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,405.7
3,765.0
3,998.1
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross
private
domestic
investment
1,403.5
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,428.2
2,600.5
416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
662.1
661.1
Government purch ases of
gOO( Is and services
Exports md imports of goods
3md service!
Final
Federal
Net
exports
4.1
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
18.8
32.1
33.9
26.3
-6.1
58.7
-78.9
227.5
291.2
351.0
382.8
361.9
352.5
382.7
369.8
223.4
272.5
318.9
348.9
335.6
358.7
441.4
448.6
425.2
467.8
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.0
733.4
815.4
161.8
178.0
208.1
242.2
272.7
283.5
311.3
354.1
National
defense
Nondefense
108.9
121.9
142.7
167.5
193.8
214.4
235.0
259.4
52.9
56.1
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.1
76.2
94.7
State
and
local
263.4
289.9
322.2
345.9
369.0
391.5
422.2
461.3
2,221.0
2,495.2
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,412.8
3,700.9
3,987.0
1982: IV
3,212.5
2,117.0
409.6
14.1
335.9
321.9
671.8
293.2
205.4
87.7
378.7
3,272.4
1983: I
n
m
3,265.8
3,367.4
3,443.9
3,545.8
2,146.6
2,213.0
2,262.8
2,315.8
428.3
481.3
519.7
579.8
22.7
-2.1
-19.3
-25.8
343.6
344.1
357.7
364.7
320.9
346.2
376.9
390.5
668.1
675.2
680.7
676.1
285.5
287.7
284.9
276.1
208.5
213.3
214.3
221.5
77.0
74.4
70.6
54.6
382.7
387.5
395.8
400.0
3,308.4
3,378.6
3,449.4
3,514.8
n
m
3,670.9
3,743.8
3,799.7
3,845.6
2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2
659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1
-45.6
-63.2
-60.0
-66.1
373.4
382.1
389.2
386.2
419.0
445.3
449.1
452.2
693.2
733.3
743.8
763.4
283.4
315.2
317.2
329.1
227.1
233.7
234.5
244.9
56.3
81.6
82.7
84.2
409.8
418.1
426.6
434.3
3,575.4
3,683.9
3,735.3
3,808.9
n
m
3,909.3
3,965.0
4,030.5
4,087.7
2,530.9
2,576.0
2,627.1
2,667.9
650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5
-49.4
77.1
-83.7
105.3
378.4
370.0
362.3
368.2
427.9
447.1
446.0
473.6
777.3
799.0
829.7
855.6
333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9
248.9
255.1
265.5
268.0
84.8
85.8
95.5
112.9
n r
m
4,149.2
4,175.6
4,240.7
2,697.9
2,732.0
2,799.8
708.3
687.3
675.8
-93.7
-104.5
- 108.9
374.8
363.0
370.8
468.5
467.5
479.7
836.7
860.8
874.0
355.7
367.6
369.3
266.4
278.4
286.8
89.3
89.2
82.6
IV
1984: I
IV
1985: I
IV
1986: I
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
443.5
3,883.9
458.1 - 3,945.9
4,027.4
468.8
474.7
4,090.8
480.9
493.3
504.7
4,105.4
4,161.2
4,245.2
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Gross
national
product
0ross private
domestic investinent
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential
fixed
Exix>rt8 of gt>ods
and service!i
Change
in
business
inventories
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
3,115.2
3,192.4
3,187.1
3,248.8
8,166.0
3,279.1
3,489.9
3,585.2
1,961.0
2,004.4
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,146.0
2,246.3
2,324.5
362.1
389.4
379.2
395.2
366.7
861.2
422.2
461.4
178.0
170.8
187.0
126.5
105.1
149.3
170.6
177.2
36.8
15.0
-6.9
23.9
-24.5
-6.4
59.2
1982: IV
3,159.3
2,078.7
352.3
115.8
1983: I
3,186.6
3,258.3
3,306.4
3,365.1
2,094.2
2,135.1
2,163.0
2,191.9
341.6
348.8
363.9
390.4
1984: I
3,444.7
3,487.1
3,507.4
3,520.4
2,213.8
2,246.3
2,253.3
2,271.7
3,547.0
3,567.6
3,603.8
3,622.3
3,655.9
3,661.4
3,686.4
n
m
iv
n
ra
TV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I
nr
m
Governinent purchases of
good s and services
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
Final
sales
9.0
57.0
49.4
26.3
19.9
-83.6
-108.2
312.6
356.8
888.9
392.7
361.9
348.1
369.7
362.8
339.4
353.2
332.0
343.4
835.6
368.1
453.2
470.5
604.1
609.1
620.5
629.7
641.7
649.0
675.2
721.2
233.7
236.2
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.1
291.7
323.6
160.7
164.3
171.2
180.8
193.8
206.9
219.4
285.7
73.0
71.9
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.2
72.3
87.8
370.4
373.0
373.6
370.1
869.0
873.9
883.5
397.6
3,078.4
3,177.4
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,285.5
3,430.7
3,576.2
-59.8
11.7
336.0
324.3
660.1
289.5
201.4
88.2
370.6
3,218.6
127.8
147.4
161.9
159.9
-42.8
-9.3
-1.0
27.0
16.1
-14.6
-35.0
-46.2
342.5
341.7
352.8
355.5
326.4
356.3
387.8
401.6
649.2
650.9
653.6
642.2
278,2
278.5
277.6
266.0
203.2
206.8
206.5
211.6
75.1
72.2
71.1
54.4
371.0
372.4
376.0
376.2
3,228.9
8,267.6
3,807.4
3,838.1
394.4
419.5
427.1
447.6
169.7
173.2
171.2
168.3
85.1
57.0
60.6
33.9
-68.6
-87.2
-85.7
-92.7
361.3
367.0
375.5
375.0
429.9
454.2
461.2
467.7
650.2
678.2
681.0
691.5
271.2
296.3
295.6
303.8
214.4
219.0
218.4
225.9
56.8
77.8
77.1
77.9
379.0
381.8
385.4
387.7
3,359.6
3,430.0
3,446.8
3,486.4
2,292.3
2,311.9
2,342.0
2,351.7
442.7
463.0
463.1
476.9
172.4
175.1
180.0
181.5
23.2
17.4
-78.8
108.1
-113.8
-132.0
369.4
361.2
355.8
362.9
448.2
469.3
469.6
494.8
695.3
708.3
731.8
749.4
305.8
311.4
329.9
347.2
228.0
233.5
242.2
239.3
77.8
77.9
87.6
107.9
389.5
396.9
401.9
402.2
3,523.9
3,550.2
3,603.1
3,627.5
2,372.7
2,408.4
2,448.0
457.8
456.8
454.4
186.3
192.7
197.2
- 125.9
-153.9
-163.3
369.2
359.8
371.2
495.1
513.6
534.5
725.2
742.2
750.4
320.4
328.9
330.9
238.7
249.8
259.4
81.7
79.5
71.5
404.8
413.3
419.5
8,616.1
3,646.3
3,686.7
.7
-5.2
39.9
15.1
-.3
-26.8
8.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross imvate
domestic i ivestment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Period
Gross
national
product
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Nonresidential
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
72.2
78.6
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.9
107.9
111.5
71.6
78.2
86.6
94.6
100.0
104.1
108.1
111.9
76.9
82.1
89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.8
104.5
71.9
80.0
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.1
105.0
107.5
69.8
75.6
83.9
92.6
100.0
106.2
111.7
117.3
71.5
77.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.8
98.7
99.3
1982: IV
101.7
101.8
100.7
101.0
102.7
1983: I
102.5
103.3
104.2
105.4
102.5
103.6
104.6
105.7
101.3
101.6
102.3
103.1
100.6
101.9
102.6
103.1
104.2
105.5
106.8
108.3
106.6
107.4
108.3
109.2
106.8
107.6
108.5
109.5
103.3
103.9
104.1
104.1
104.4
104.5
105.1
106.0
110.2
111.1
111.8
112.8
110.4
111.4
112.2
113.4
104.6
104.5
104.5
104.3
113.5
114.0
115.0
113.7
113.4
114.4
104.5
104.7
105.9
n
in
IV
1984: I
n
in....
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I
nr
ffl
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Exports an< 1 imports of
goods anc i services
Goveimment pure lases of gooids and
serpices
Federal
Residential fixed
Exports
Imports
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and local
72.4
78.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.4
105.5
107.9
71.1
77.7
86.2
93.4
100.0
104.7
110.1
116.0
102.0
99.5
102.2
102.6
103.4
108.8
104.7
102.6
103.0
99.3
100.3
103.1
104.1
105.3
106.3
104.5
106.4
107.3
108.3
105.9
106.7
107.3
108.4
99.2
105.5
107.3
108.2
108.1
109.5
110.7
112.0
95.5
95.3
95.0
95.7
109.1
109.5
109.4
109.7
109.2
109.3
109.6
112.0
109.0
110.2
108.9
104.6
113.9
115.4
116.6
118.0
94.6
91.0
89.7
111.0
111.8
111.6
111.6
111.7
110.5
109.2
112.1
115.4
118.8
119.4
120.3
72.6
81.4
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.3
108.2
72.8
81.6
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.3
103.5
102.1
65.8
77.1
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.4
97.4
95.4
69.2
75.4
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.1
106.7
109.4
67.8
74.2
83.4
92.9
100.0
108.6
107.1
110.0
100.7
99.1
100.0
99.3
101.8
99.8
98.8
98.4
98.3
101.9
100.3
103.2
103,1
100.3
100.7
101.4
102.6
98.8
97.2
97.2
97.2
102.6
108.3
102.6
103.8
109.6
110.9
112.4
113.6
98.4
98.5
98.8
99.0
103.6
106.4
107.5
107.8
103.4
104.1
103.6
103.0
97.5
98.0
97.4
96.7
106.5
107.2
107.5
108.9
115.0
116.6
118.0
119.5
99.4
99.2
99.3
99.4
107.6
107.8
108.1
109.4
102.4
102.4
101.8
101.5
108.0
105.8
106.6
120.6
121.8
123.0
100.3
100.2
101.0
110.2
111.7
112.2
101.5
100.9
99.9
CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal consumption es penditures
Gro ss national prcHluCt
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: IV
1983: I
8.9
11.7
3.7
7.6
10.5
6.2
4.2
6.8
13.0
9.4
12.4
14.9
8.2
6.1
4.9
6.8
5.8
6.8
5.8
6.2
2.6
6.4
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
.-
IV
1986: I
n r
m
-0.2
1.9
-2.5
3.6
6.4
2.7
.6
3.5
9.3
6.0
7.3
9.8
5.0
2.3
1.5
3.1
2.3
4.1
2.1
3.8
.6
2.8
Implicit
price
deflator
Chain price
index
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
9.0
9.0
9.3
9.7
6.4
3.9
3.8
3.3
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.5
4.7
4.6
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.3
2.5
3.6
2.5
1.8
3.6
9.4
6.3
4.1
4.0
3.6
4.1
3.7
3.6
4.1
3.9
4.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.9
3.5
2.5
3.9
1.9
1.5
2.5
9.3
6.2
4.1
4.0
3.7
4.0
3.6
3.8
4.2
4.0
4.7
3.6
3.5
3.6
4.2
3.6
2.8
4.0
2.5
1.7
2.6
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
10.6
10.5
7.1
9.0
8.7
7.1
10.3
5.7
13.0
9.3
9.7
8.6
9.1
5.0
7.0
7.2
7.3
8.2
6.4
4.6
5.2
10.3
-0.2
1.2
1.3
4.6
4.7
3.5
5.3
3.0
8.0
5.3
5.5
4.1
6.0
1.3
3.3
3.7
3.5
5.3
1.7
3.6
6.2
6.7
Implicit
price
deflator
Chain price
index
10.7
9.2
5.7
4.1
3.8
3.5
4.4
2.8
4,4
3.9
4.3
4.2
3.0
3.4
3.7
3.3
3.7
2.9
4.3
1.1
-1.1
3.6
10.9
9.2
5.7
4.2
4.0
3.6
4.8
2.8
4.6
4.0
4.1
4.5
3.0
3.7
3.7
3.5
4.0
2.8
4.7
1.4
-.3
3.6
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
10.5
9.0
5.6
4.2
4.0
3.7
4.8
2.8
4.6
4.1
4.1
4.7
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.2
3.0
4.7
1.5
^
3.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Curren t-dollar cos t and profit per unit of output (dc liars) l
Gross c omestie
prodiict of
nonfin ancial
corporate business
(billions c f dollars)
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: IV
1983: I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I
n
mr
1
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,914.2
2,143.7
2,275.1
1,779.4
1,816.0
1,883.9
1,944.5
2,012.5
2,081.7
2,135.9
2,160.3
2,196.8
2,226.0
2,259.1
2,301.3
2,314.1
2,343.6
2,341.5
2,370.0
1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.0
2,030.8
2,105.5
1,760.2
1,790.7
1,844.7
1,887.9
1,940.5
1,993.8
2,031.6
2,038.4
2,059.4
2,075.7
2,094.4
2,124.6
2,127.3
2,141.0
2,135.3
2,142.2
Total
cost
and
profit 2
Indirect
business
taxes 3
0.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.056
1.081
1.011
1.014
1.021
1.030
1.037
1.044
1.051
1.060
1.067
1.072
1.079
1.083
1.088
1.095
1.097
1.106
0.095
.109
.125
.123
.118
.120
.131
.127
.124
.123
.120
.118
.117
.118
.119
.119
.120
.119
.121
.121
.123
.123
0.077
.090
.094
.098
.100
.103
.096
.097
.099
.099
.098
.099
.100
.101
.101
.102
.104
.103
.104
.106
.103
.107
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-
lars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfumncial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
Corp<>rate profits with
inventory valuation a nd capital
consuniption adjus tments
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
3
Compensation of
employees
Net
interest
0.581
.632
.676
.679
.690
.708
.685
.682
.676
.676
.680
.683
.684
.694
.699
.704
.708
.705
.716
.721
.724
.727
0.031
.037
.043
.037
.041
.043
.042
.039
.037
.037
.037
.037
.039
.042
.043
.044
.043
.042
.042
.042
.041
.040
Total
0.068
.078
.063
.089
.107
.106
.057
.069
.086
.095
.103
.107
.111
.104
.104
.103
.104
.113
.105
.105
.106
.109
Profits
tax
liability
0.037
.035
.026
.032
.037
.032
.023
.023
.031
.036
.036
.041
.040
.034
.032
.031
.029
.033
.033
r
.032
r
.034
.036
Profits
after
tax 4
0.031
.044
.037
.057
.070
.075
.034
.046
.055
.059
.066
.067
.071
.070
.072
.073
.075
.080
.072
r
.073
r
.072
.072
Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)
Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)
17.096
17.194
17.318
17.867
18.224
18.436
17.383
17.634
17.865
17.936
18.027
18.172
18.275
18.201
18.250
18.285
18.384
18.604
18.472
18.449
18.449
18.450
9.939
10.861
11.699
12.124
12.574
13.060
11.915
12.031
12.073
12.126
12.259
12.406
12.498
12.630
12.758
12.878
13.011
13.121
13.229
13.294
13.347
13.407
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).
4
NATIONAlj INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
National
income
Compensation of
employees1
Proprietoi s' income
with in ventory
valuation iind capital
consulnption
adjust ments
Farm
1981
1982,....
1983
1984
1985
1982: IV
1983: I
n
m....
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
ra
IV
1986: I
nr
ra .
1
Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
tion
adjustment
Nonfarm
2,443.5
2,518.4
2,719.5
3,032.0
3,222.3
2,548.2
2,599.1
2,685.5
2,741.8
2,851.5
2,963.2
3,010.3
3,052.3
3,102.0
3,157.0
3,201.4
3,243.4
3,287.3
1,807.4
1,907.0
2,020.7
2,214.7
2,368.2
1,931.1
1,958.8
1,995.0
2,036.3
2,092.7
2,153.7
2,195.4
2,234.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,352.1
2,380.9
2,423.6
30.7
24.6
12.4
31.5
29.2
28.5
18.1
15.9
-3.5
19.3
44.5
26.4
24.7
30.4
32.9
33.0
21.6
29.4
156.1
150.9
178.4
205.3
225.2
159.8
165.9
176.4
183.0
188.6
198.0
203.2
209.9
210.3
217.8
222.5
227.7
232.7
3,340.7
3,376.4
3,396.1
2,461.5
2,480.2
2,507.4
24.4
39.5
19.6
240.9
249.6
258.0
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
13.3
13.6
13.2
Corpora te profits wit a inventory ^valuation anc capital
consunaption adjustments
Profits wi th inventory valuation
adjustmei it and withoiit capital
consulnption adjus jnent
Total
Tnful
8.4
7.1
5.6
6.8
8.1
7.3
8.3
188.0
150.0
213.7
264.7
280.7
146.1
170.6
207.0
228.9
248.5
262.5
271.7
259.8
265.0
266.4
274.3
296.3
285.6
12.8
16.3
16.2
296.4
293.1
302.0
8.3
7.6
15.8
13.8
15.4
11.2
12.4
12.1
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
Profits
before tax
226.5
169.6
207.6
235.7
223.2
164.1
169.7
201.8
227.5
231.5
249.3
246.5
225.1
221.9
213.8
213.8
229.2
235.8
-24.2
-10.4
-10.9
-5.5
222.5
r
227.7
240.4
16.5
10.6
202.3
159.2
196.7
230.2
222.6
150.7
163.9
191.2
208.5
223.4
235.7
241.5
223.3
220.3
213.3
215.4
235.3
226.4
-.6
13.4
-5.9
-10.6
-19.0
-8.1
-13.6
-4.9
-1.8
-1.6
239.0
r
238.3
246.5
-14.4
-9.2
17.0
34.5
58.1
-4.5
15.8
20.5
25.1
26.7
30.2
36.5
44.7
53.2
58.9
61.0
59.2
248.1
272.3
281.0
307.4
311.4
266.9
272.1
275.8
285.9
290.2
292.5
305.2
316.1
315.7
316.8
311.4
309.7
307.6
57.3
54.8
55.5
304.9
297.7
292.9
6.7
-.5
1.6
6.1
-9.4
r
r
Net
interest
Capital
consumption
adjust-
6.1
r
r
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: IV
1983: I
n
ffl
IV
1984: I
H
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I
n
mr
personal
consumption
expenditures
Total
durable
goods
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,428.2
2,600.5
2,117.0
2,146.6
2,213.0
2,262.8
2,315.8
2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2
2,530.9
2,576.0
2,627.1
2,667.9
239.9
252.7
289.1
331.2
359.3
263.8
266.7
284.5
295.2
310.0
321.2
331.3
331.8
340.4
347.7
354.0
373.3
362.0
100.5
108.9
130.4
154.5
169.2
115.7
115.0
128.5
133.7
144.4
150.4
155.8
154.4
157.6
162.3
165.3
182.8
166.4
92.7
95.7
107.1
118.9
126.8
99.1
101.6
105.3
109.2
112.4
115.6
118.3
119.2
122.3
123.5
125.9
126.8
130.9
46.6
48.1
51.6
57.8
63.3
49.0
50.2
50.6
52.3
53.2
55.2
57.2
58.3
60.4
61.9
62.8
63.7
64.7
740.6
771.0
816.7
870.1
905.1
786.6
791.0
810.9
827.0
837.9
855.7
870.3
873.9
880.3
888.2
902.3
907.4
922.6
2,697.9
2,732.0
2,799.8
360.8
373.9
414.5
163.5
172.0
204.7
132.1
135.8
140.0
65.3
66.0
69.8
929.7
928.4
932.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Furniture
and
household
equipment
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Retail sales of
new pa ssenger
cars (mi [lions of
Non durable gctods
Durablej goods
Tntol
Other
Total
nondurable
goods
Services
un ts)
Clothing and
shoes
Gasoline
and oil
376.5
398.8
421.9
449.9
469.3
407.0
411.1
418.8
426.8
430.8
440.4
447.9
454.3
456.9
461.2
468.3
470.4
477.4
119.9
124.4
135.1
147.2
155.2
126.5
128.7
134.5
136.0
141.1
144.4
148.2
146.6
149.7
151.7
155.0
155.4
158.7
92.7
89.1
90.2
90.7
91.9
89.8
87.0
89.4
92.5
91.9
92.0
91.7
89.4
89.9
89.6
92.8
92.4
93.0
151.6
158.7
169.5
182.2
188.7
163.4
164.3
168.2
171.7
174.0
178.8
182.5
183.6
183.8
185.8
186.2
189.1
193.5
934.7
1,027.0
1,128.7
1,227.0
1,336.1
1,066.5
1,088.9
,117.6
,140.6
,167.9
,186.9
,214.5
,239.9
,266.5
1,294.9
1,319.7
1,346.4
1,383.2
6.2
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
6.0
6.0
6.9
6.9
7.4
8.1
8.1
7.9
7.7
8.3
8.1
9.4
7.0
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.2
484.6
490.3
494.0
161.3
165.0
166.6
87.6
78.1
74.2
196.2
194.9
198.0
1,407.4
1,429.8
1,452.4
7.8
8.1
9.7
2.8
3.1
3.5
Food
Other
Domestics
Imports
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $10.7 billion (annual rate) in November, following a rise of $12.4 billion in October. The
increases were affected by two special factors: bonus payments in October to employees in the automobile industry
(which lowered the November increases and raised the October increases) and decreases in subsidy payments to
farmers (which lowered the increases in both months). Excluding the effect of these factors, personal income rose
$19.1 billion in November and $9.8 billion in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RAT1O SCALE)
3,800
3,200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,200
1,600
1,600
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
800
T
800
T
400
OTHER INCOME
400
TRANSFER
PAYMENTS
200 I i i i i i I i i i i i
1978
1979
1980
i i i 11 I 11 i i i
I ii i i I ii
1982
1981
1983
200
I 1 I M I 1 I 1 1I
1984
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1985
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total
personal
income
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:
1986:
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July r.
Aug r
Sept r
Oct r
Nov f .
„
Wage and
salary
disburse-
1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,838.6
3,110.2
3,314.5
1,119.3
,252.1
,372.0
,510.3
,586.1
,676.6
,836.8
,966.1
3,372.3
3,418.0
2,010.5
2,031.1
3,417.4
3,435.3
3,445.1
3,486.8
3,481.3
3,481.9
3,490.8
3,497.9
3,507.9
3,520.3
3,531.0
2,035.7
2,044.8
2,051.8
2,054.9
2,058.4
2,063.2
2,072.0
2,083.4
2,088.0
2,102.5
2,113.2
Proprietors ' income3
Other labor
income l 2
107.7
122.7
138.4
150.3
163.6
173.6
184.5
196.9
201.7
202.6
203.6
204.5
205.5
206.4
207.3
208.2
209.5
210.4
211.3
212.1
213.0
Farm
27.0
31.7
20.5
149.2
160.1
160.1
30.7
24.6
12.4
31.5
29.2
26.0
38.2
23.4
26.9
22.8
53.0
38.1
27.5
18.3
19.1
21.3
18.5
16.1
156.1
150.9
178.4
205.3
225.2
232.4
234.9
237.9
241.0
243.8
247.5
249.1
252.2
255.4
257.5
261.0
262.4
265.0
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
* Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Nonfarm
4
6
6
Kental
income of4
persons
Personal
dividend
income
9.3
5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
13.2
8.3
7.6
2.9
11.7
12.2
12.7
13.5
15.1
16.6
17.1
J6.5
16.1
16.0
16.3
16.5
43.0
48.1
52.9
61.3
63.9
68.7
74.7
76.4
76.8
76.9
78.0
79.2
80.0
80.8
81.1
81.5
81.7
82.1
82.3
82.4
82.7
Personal
interest
income
182.5
221.4
271.9
335.4
369.7
393.1
446.9
476.2
481.0
482.2
481.4
480.7
480.4
480.5
480.1
479.8
477.2
473.7
470.4
467.6
465.6
Transfer
Pay-
ments 5
244.0
273.1
324.7
368.1
410.6
442.6
455.6
487.1
493.5
494.5
503.4
504.2
506.5
507.9
510.7
511.8
520.3
516.5
518.7
520.4
521.7
Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance
69.8
81.0
88.6
104.5
112.3
120.1
133.5
150.2
152.7
154.0
158.0
158.7
159.1
159.2
159.9
159.3
160.2
160.9
161.1
162.0
162.6
Nonfarm
personal
income e
1,769.3
1,983.1
2,215.8
2,465.6
2,618.7
2,799.0
3,052.2
3,261.0
3,323.2
3,356.9
3,371.1
3,385.6
3,399.5
3,411.0
3,420.5
3,431.7
3,449.6
3,455.9
3,463.7
3,478.8
3,492.0
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Per capita disposable personal income fell in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALf)
1,000
DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
14,000
DOLLARS* (RATIOSCALE)
14,000
— PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
12,000
12,000
10,000
10,000
1982' DOLLARS
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
1
I I
I
1978
i I
1979
I
I I
1980
I
I i
1981
I
I I
1982
I
I I
i
1983
I I
I
1I
1985
1984
I I I
4,000
1986
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE
Period
Personal
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
persona]
income
Less:
Personal
outlays l
Equals:
Personal
saving
Disposable
persona]
income
Perciipita
disposable personal
inccone
1982
dollars
(billions)
Current
dollars
1,812.4
^ 2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,838.6
3,110.2
3,314.5
261.1
304.7
340.5
393.3
409.3
410.5
439.6
486.5
1,551.2
1,729.3
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,428.1
2,670.6
2,828.0
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
1,441.1
1,611.3
1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,297.4
2,501.9
2,684.7
110.2
118.0
136.8
159.4
153.9
130.6
168.7
143.3
2,167.4
2,212.6
2,214.3
2,248.6
2,261.5
2,331.9
2,470.6
2,528.0
6,968
7,682
8,421
9,243
9,724
10,340
11,265
11,817
Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
personal
income
Saving
as
percent
of
disposable
personal
income
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands)2
Pereeiit
DoOai•8
BilHo QS of dollani
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982
dollars
Per capita personal
consulnption
expenc itures
9,735
9,829
9,722
9,769
9,725
9,930
10,421
10,563
6,304
6,960
7,607
8,320
8,818
9,515
10,243
10,866
8,808
8,904
8,783
8,794
8,818
9,139
9,475
9,713
3.8
1.0
-1.1
.5
_j
2.1
4.9
1.4
7.1
6.8
7.1
7.5
6.8
5.4
6.3
5.1
222,629
9,749
9,780
9,855
9,933
10,151
10,358
10,392
10,457
10,477
10,466
10,674
10,537
10,577
10,723
10,886
10,776
9,068
9,174
9,437
9,624
9,825
10,007
10,206
10,304
10,452
10,613
10,779
10,964
11,107
11,208
11,326
11,580
8,904
8,950
9,105
9,200
9,299
9,372
9,488
9,494
9,547
9,613
9,674
9,774
9,790
9,857
9,984
10,125
1.2
1.3
3.1
3.2
9.1
6.2
5.9
5.1
4.8
5.8
8.4
1.3
2.5
.8
-.4
8.2
-5.0
1.5
5.6
6.2
-4.0
6.9
6.0
6.4
6.0
5.2
6.5
4.2
4.4
233,466
233,981
234,509
235,117
235,707
236,222
236,742
237,347
237,953
238,469
238,985
239,605
240,206
240,709
241,215
241,789
225,106
227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,067
239,317
Seasonally adjusted arm ual rates
1982: IV..... 2,729.2
1983: I
2,753.1
2,812.6
ffl....
2,846.8
IV
2,941.8
3,034.2
1984: I
3,077.4
3,139.7
IV
3,189.6
1985: I
3,253.1
H
3,298.7
3,323.2
IV
3,382.9
1986: I
3,432.6
3,483.3
r
3,498.8
n
n
m....
m....
n
m ..
411.1
407.4
417.1
403.6
413.9
421.5
431.2
445.9
460.0
497.7
456.4
491.2
500.7
497.5
504.8
519.0
2,318.1
2,345.7
2,395.4
2,443.2
2,527.9
2,612.7
2,646.3
2,693.8
2,729.6
2,755.4
2,842.3
2,832.0
2,882.2
2,935.1
2,978.5
2,979.9
2,174.9
2,206.2
2,274.4
2,326.7
2,382.5
2,433.5
2,488.7
2,520.9
2,564.6
2,611.3
2,658.7
2,712.4
2,756.4
2,789.4
2,825.5
2,895.8
143.1
139.5
121.1
116.4
145.4
179.2
157.6
172.9
165.0
144.1
183.6
119.6
125.8
145.6
153.1
84.1
2,276.1
2,288.4
2,311.1
2,335.4
2,392.7
2,446.9
2,460.3
2,481.9
2,493.1
2,495.7
2,550.8
2,524.7
2,540.7
2,581.2
2,625.8
2,605.5
1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, i nterest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payment* to foreigners (net).
9,929
10,025
10,215
10,391
10,725
11,060
11,178
11,350
11,471
11,555
11,893
11,819
11,999
12,193
12,348
12,324
5.0
5.1
2.8
1
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the third quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $23.4 billion (annual rate)
and net farm income fell $21.7 billion, as Government payments fell sharply from their second quarter level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
240
~240
200
200
^~
160
/-~~^—
:
^-1
120
1r^
^^
160
120
C ROSS FARM IhJCOME
80
80
60
60
40
X
N
i «*+>
\
20
/ s
<•
N ET FARM 1NCC>ME
/ "* X "
^
•\ \~<s\
/
\
i
i
i
l
J
N
l
l
\
10
N
N
,'\-'
' \
i i
l I
l i
li
ti
u
V
l
n
ii
/ \
'' '
\/
\
\i
\
|
\
*
f
%
/\ 1
Nl
\
*\ / '
<•
t
»
40
.
/I
V
20
\
M
\
*
i
10
V
I
i 1
1978
I 1 1
1
1 i
1
1980
1979
1 |
\
I 1
1
1
1983
1982
1981
1
1
1
1
1984
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1
! i
1985
1
1 1
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
In come
(Jross farm
Period
Cai h
Total1
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 p
1983: I
of farm operators from farming
Net farna income
incom B
marketing rece ipts
Livestock and
products
Crops
128.4
150.7
149.3
166.3
163.4
152.4
174.4
166.6
112.4
131.5
139.7
141.6
142.6
136.5
142.2
142.1
59.2
69.2
68.0
69.2
70.2
69.5
72.9
69.4
53.2
62.3
71.7
72.5
72.4
67.0
69.2
72.7
n
in
154.9
148.3
155.5
151.1
143.1
137.1
142.9
122.8
70.9
69.2
68.2
69.5
72.2
67.9
74.8
53.2
n
ra
174.4
168.0
173.8
181.4
136.5
141.2
144.1
146.8
75.6
71.4
71.6
73.1
60.9
69.8
72.5
73.8
n
m
170.7
164.7
157.4
173.5
137.3
135.1
139.8
156.2
69.2
67.8
68.0
72.6
68.1
67.4
71.8
83.6
n
ra"
145.6
165.1
141.7
129.1
127.9
124.4
65.6
67.0
76.4
63.5
60.9
48.0
IV
1984: I
IV
1985: I
IV
1986: I r r
1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.
Value of
inventory
changes 2
1.9
5.0
Production
expenses
Current
dollars
1982 dollars 3
-1.1
103.2
123.3
133.1
139.4
140.7
139.5
141.7
136.1
25.2
27.4
16.1
26.9
22.7
13.0
32.7
30.5
34.9
34.9
18.8
28.6
22.7
12.5
30.2
27.3
-11.8
-13.5
-11.6
-6.8
139.3
139.0
139.3
140.2
15.6
15.2
16.1
10.9
15.5
10.3
1.7
7.0
9.0
7.5
141.6
142.2
142.0
140.9
32.7
25.8
31.8
40.5
30.7
23.9
29.3
36.9
3.0
-.3
-2.6
-4.5
139.0
137.1
135.2
133.2
31.7
27.6
22.2
40.3
28.7
24.8
19.8
35.7
-2.9
-2.8
-2.5
131.2
129.4
127.7
14.4
35.7
14.0
12.6
31.5
12.2
-6.3
6.5
-1.8
-10.9
6.3
9.3
8
Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982=100).
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.
9.0
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1986, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $12.7 billion (annual
rate) and after-tax profits rose $7.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
280
280
240
40
1978
1985
1979
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
PTC>fits (before tix) with inventory valuati 3n adjustmen t 1
Doinestic
Total
2
Total
194.0
202.3
159.2
196.7
230.2
222.6
1982: IV....
150.7
163.9
191.2
208.5
223.4
235.7
241.5
223.3
220.3
213.3
215.4
235.3
226.4
239.0
238.3
246.5
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I rr
n .....
rar
159.6
173.8
131.2
166.6
199.2
190.8
121.6
135.7
163.0
176.8
190.7
205.2
211.5
191.3
188.8
182.6
183.8
205.3
191.3
200.6
205.4
211.8
21.0
16.5
11.8
18.1
15.4
21.0
18.7
19.4
20.3
17.2
15.5
16.6
15.4
13.4
16.1
18.2
21.1
21.7
23.2
27.8
29.1
28.9
s
138.6
157.3
119.4
148.5
183.8
169.7
102.9
116.3
142.7
159.6
175.2
188.6
196.1
177.8
172.6
164.4
162.7
183.6
168.1
172.8
176.3
182.9
1
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
*9 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Includes industries not shown separately.
8
Profits
before tax
Tax
liability
237.1
226.5
169.6
207.6
235.7
223.2
164.1
169.7
201.8
227.5
231.5
249.3
246.5
225.1
221.9
213.8
213.8
229.2
235.8
222.5
227.7
240.4
84.8
81.1
63.1
77.2
95.4
91.8
59.8
59.1
75.3
86.5
88.1
152.3
145.4
106.5
130.4
140.3
131.4
104.3
110.6
126.6
141.0
143.4
102.9
101.6
89.3
87.8
87.8
87.1
95.8
96.4
95.7
99.0
104.4
146.4
144.8
135.8
134.1
126.0
126.7
133.4
139.4
126.9
128.8
135.9
TXTKnlo
Financial
Total
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
taX
industaies
Nonfinancial
Period
1983: I
Profits after
Manufacturing
77.1
88.5
58.0
70.1
87.4
73.0
46.8
51.2
63.2
77.7
88.6
95.0
94.6
81.3
78.9
70.4
68.2
79.0
74.5
66.7
76.8
75.6
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
54.7
63.6
66.9
71.5
78.3
81.6
68.5
69.8
70.4
72.0
73.9
76.0
78.1
79.0
80.1
80.9
81.4
81.6
82.5
85.2
87.5
88.8
97.6
81.8
39.6
58.9
62.0
49.8
35.8
40.8
56.1
69.0
69.5
70.4
66.7
56.8
54.0
45.1
45.3
51.8
57.0
41.7
41.2
47.2
sale and
retail
trade
21.6
32.5
34.6
38.9
49.7
49.7
33.6
32.5
41.0
39.0
43.1
46.2
51.1
51.0
50.7
48.8
51.1
54.2
45.0
52.1
46.3
53.3
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.9
-5.5
-.6
-13.4
-5.9
-10.6
-19.0
-8.1
-13.6
-4.9
-1.8
-1.6
-.5
1.6
6.1
-9.4
16.5
10.6
6.1
NOTE.—Corporate profits and related measures for the first 3 quarters of 1986 have been adjusted to reflect retroactive provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 1986.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter, nonresidential fixed investment rose $1.5 billion (annual rate)
from its second quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $6.0 billion. There was a $4.5 billion
decrease in inventories following an increase of $14.5 billion in the second quarter.
BULK DNS OF DOLLA RS
800
BIL LIONS OF DOL LARS
800
SEA SONALIY ADJUSTED t ANNUAL RATES
•jf\f\
700
—
r~i
r
1
GROS S PRIVATE DOAAESTIC
INVESTMENT
600
^/\
500
^
^X*"
"""--^^H
400
_
300
"__*•
200
—.-_.— ———**
i /\f)
—
-
0
'
1
1 I
1978
1
i
I
1979
fs
vy
~^.— -"S^
—
/
>
A
—-—-•'
•\_._."~
-100
/
***
^
jS*"
4
^
y
/
^--'''
V
700
'
—
600
... ,—
500
400
—
NONRESIDE slTIAL
FIXED INVES1"MENT
300
—
RESIDENTIAL
Fl KED INVESTME NT
.--*
-~X
w \
100
/
f*\—~
v
t 1 I
1 1 1
1980
1981
1982
*s
—.
X%
^^..-v '
/
\ \ \
200
+^"
CH/kNGE IN BUSIhIESS
INVENTORIES
,-~
^±=n
^—^***
^X
0
—1
i i i
1
!
i
I I 1
1985
1984
1983
OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1 1 1
-100
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change ui business
inven tories
]?^ixed investment
a„
Nonresidential
Period
investment
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: IV
1983: I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n...
m
rv
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I
n
mr
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
662.1
661.1
409.6
428.3
481.3
519.7
579.8
659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1
650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5
708.3
687.3
675.8
Total
441.9
445.3
491.5
471.8
509.4
598.0
650.0
469.5
471.0
492.5
525.2
548.8
564.0
597.6
605.8
624.4
625.2
648.0
654.3
672.6
664.4
672.8
680,3
Total
302.8
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.9
416.5
458.2
354.9
340.8
344.7
358.1
383.9
388.2
413.3
421.8
442.9
439.8
459.2
459.8
474.0
459.2
457.5
459.0
Structures
99.5
113.9
138.5
143.3
124.0
139.3
154.8
137.6
126.4
119.8
122.7
127.4
129.7
139.1
141.4
146.7
150.7
156.1
155.0
157.2
154.6
141.5
139.5
Producers'
durable
equipment
203.3
208.9
230.7
223.4
232.8
277.3
303.4
217.3
214.4
224.9
235.5
256.5
258.4
274.1
280.4
296.2
289.1
303.1
304.7
316.8
304.6
316.0
319.5
Residential
139.1
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.5
181.4
191.8
114.7
130.2
147.8
167.1
164.9
175.8
184.4
184.0
181.5
185.4
188.8
194.5
198.6
205.3
215.3
221.3
Total
13.0
-8.3
24.0
-24.5
-7.1
64.1
11.1
-59.9
-42.6
-11.2
-5.5
31.0
95.5
59.9
64.4
36.7
25.4
19.1
3.1
-3.1
43.8
14.5
-4.5
Nonfarm
7.9
-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.4
56.6
12.2
-51.1
-33.2
-2.3
15.8
21.3
71.5
56.8
62.1
35.9
18.5
10.4
3.2
16.7
41.2
10.5
-10.3
According ^e *h
expected to be 0.9 percent above the 1986 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
500
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
400
300
300
H—7
ALL INDUSTRIES
200
200
NONMANUFACTURING ^
100
MANUFACTURING
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
I
1979
1980
1
I
1
1
I
1
1983
1982
1981
1
I
1985
1984
J/ SURVEYED OUARTERIY
2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
I
1987
1986
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda
Industries surveyed quarterly
M ajiufaeturu »f
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 4
1987 4
,
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I
n r
rn4
IV
1987: I 4
n*
All
industries
Total
Durable
Noiunanufaetui •ing
Nondurable
Total1
Mining
Public
utilities
Commercial
and
other
Nonmanufactu ring
Manufacturing
Total
139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
235.91
242.30
78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
144.77
141.95
39.46
48.50
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.27
69.96
69.50
39.13
47.42
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.21
74.81
72.44
139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
235.91
242.30
11.22
12.81
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
11.24
10.11
13.36
16.05
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
18.02
18.64
18.86
31.50
35.63
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.81
46.53
44.42
83.09
94.56
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
150.94
159.50
168.91
373.56
387.86
389.23
397.88
146.94
154.25
154.47
158.26
70.29
74.34
72.99
75.47
76.64
79.91
81.48
82.79
226.62
233.61
234.76
239.61
15.81
16.56
15.89
15.25
16.70
17.45
18.81
19.15
48.44
48.61
48.44
49.79
145.68
150.99
151.62
155.42
146.94
154.25
154.47
158.26
226.62
233.61
234.76
239.61
377.94
375.92
374.55
394.34
144.03
141.68
139.21
154.17
68.01
68.33
69.31
74.17
76.02
73.35
69.89
80.00
233.90
234.24
235.34
240.17
12.99
11.23
10.15
10.62
18.22
18.28
19.03
19.02
47.03
46.55
45.90
46.63
155.67
158.18
160.25
163.91
144.03
141.68
139.21
154.17
233.90
234.24
235.34
240.17
386.82
393.39
141.22
145.23
67.86
72.37
73.36
72.85
245.60
248.16
10.36
10.58
19.85
18.46
46.32
46.90
169.08
172.22
141.22
145.23
245.60
248.16
245.34
284.94
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
431.94
78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
144.77
141.95
166.76
189.02
202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16
278.46
Surveyed
quarterly
217.76
254.96
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
387.13
380.69
384.24
1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.
10
Transportation
Total
nonfarm
busi-
Surveyed
annual-
ly s
27.58
29.98
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
44.81
3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
. . expenditures
Planned. capital
as reported by business in October-November 1986, corrected for
biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In November, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 131,000 and unemployment rose 41,000.
MllLIONS OF PERSCHMS*
120
MILL IONS OF PERSC3NS*
120
„-—-T*.—^
116
^^_x^
SEASONALLY ADJUST ED
^
, —^
—
1 12
112
"^
r^T
—
—
^ X- .^A-
^^~~^S~*~
ins
p^-—
X
108
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
'
^*-
x""^"***
X
^>_X-~ "~ ^
104
:>x-^
x-»
100
-
100
«. — «*
,.--""
—
104
—
^''*
—
CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT
96
*_<
96
. ,
09
92
X"
X,
v.
X"
12
_-
8
4
0
— 12
—^.
—_^^
_^
^-<
-^^
\"
UNEMPLOYMENT
-^.
.
—.^~-
—
8
— 4
11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Illllllllll
Illllllllll
Illllllllll
1978
1979
1980
1981
I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l
1983
1982
Illllllllll
Illllllllll
1985
1986
1984
*16 YEARS OF AGE A ND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
0
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Period
Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
!>„„:
jSresi-
dent
Armed
Forces
NSA
,
.
T
Jufibor
force
resident
Armed
Forces
NSA
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan*...
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June....
July ....
Aug
Sept ....
Get
Nov
166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
180,642
180,810
181,361
181,512
181,678
181,843
181,998
182,183
182,354
182,525
182,713
182,935
183,114
1,597
,604
,645
,668
,676
,697
,706
,702
,698
,691
,691
,693
1,695
1,687
1,680
1,672
1,697
1,716
1,749
1,751
106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
117,832
117,927
118,477
118,779
118,900
118,929
119,351
119,796
119,744
119,879
119,936
120,231
120,405
Unempk>yment
Civilian einployment
Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces
100,421
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
109,671
109,904
110,646
110,252
110,481
110,587
110,797
111,353
111,554
111,852
111,607
111,989
112,122
NonagriculturaJ
Civilian
labor force
104,962
106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
116,130
116,229
116,786
117,088
117,207
117,234
117,664
118,116
118,072
118,182
118,220
118,482
118,654
1
Persona at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Labor
force as percent of noninstitutipnal population (both including resident Armed Forces).
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
Total
98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
107,969
108,206
108,955
108,561
108,788
108,892
109,110
109,673
109,882
110,155
109,891
110,240
110,371
Agricultural
3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,070
3,151
3,299
3,096
3,285
3,222
3,160
3,165
3,112
3,048
3,121
3,149
3,225
Total
95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
104,899
105,055
105,655
105,465
105,503
105,670
105,950
106,508
106,769
107,107
106,770
107,091
107,146
Part-time
for
economic
reasons l
3,373
4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
5,512
5,334
5,295
5,294
5,275
5,158
5,301
5,621
5,673
5,320
5,191
5,259
5,298
5,501
5,309
Total
6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,161
8,023
7,831
8,527
8,419
8,342
8,554
8,443
8,190
8,027
8,329
8,242
8,283
15
weeks
and
over
1,241
1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2,205
2,188
2,056
2,340
2,258
2,135
2,209
2,320
2,256
2,295
2,405
2,167
2,216
Labor force
partici] >ation
rate (pe rcent)
Total2
Civilian 3
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.7
65.1
65.2
65.2
65.3
65.4
65.4
65.4
65.6
65.8
65.7
65.7
65.6
65.7
65.8
63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
64.9
64.9
65.0
65.1
65.1
65.1
65.3
65.4
65.3
65.4
65.3
65.4
65.4
'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in
estimation procedures.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
66-379 0 - 8 6 - 2
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In November, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate was 6.9 percent, unchanged from its September
and October levels; the civilian unemployment rate was also unchanged at 7.0 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
25
f
20
1
t
<-*"* /•*"
TEENAGERS
(16-19)
MH
4
20
/O''
BLACK
**\ V
. . /
V
\y\,
.
y\^^
/
.A
'\-
15
BLACK
10
x
/
*v
%
*
/V
15
S*
*
\ f\m
AhJD oimn
/,
x"^/'
,- ""
\A
\
V-'t \
10
"vI\X
ALL
-\ Nx..
N ^Nx*-——i
' T~
CIVILIAN W 3RKERS
/
K. ^^ /^^-^X^x—
"*•— » ~^»-^,>> /*>-***^-- •
- WHITE
lllilllliil
imilnm
1982
1983
MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
lllilllliil IIMillllll
1984
1985
1982
1986
1983
1984
1985
1986
•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT Of CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthiy data seasonally adjusted]
Unempl oyment rate (percen t of civilia:n labor force in group)
Period
UnemPloymeat
rate,
all
workers1
BY sex and age
All
civilian
workers
Men
20 years
and over
?f omen
20 years
and
over
By selected grou|»8
By race
Both
sexes
16-19
years
White
Black
and
other
Black
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
Married
men,
spouse
present
Women
who
maintain
families
8.3
9.2
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5
7.4
7.1
5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2
4.2
5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
5.7
6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6
16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
5.1
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2
11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
5.5
6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3
1985: Nov
Dec
6.9
6.8
7.0
6.9
6.0
5.9
6.4
6.2
18.4
18.8
5.9
5.9
14.1
13.4
15.6
14.9
6.6
6.5
4.3
4.3
10.0
1986:
6.6
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.7
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.3
7.1
6.9
6.8
7.0
7.0
7.0
5.7
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.4
6.2
6.2
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.1
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.1
18.4
19.0
18.2
19.6
19.0
19.1
17.5
17.7
18.7
17.6
18.4
5.7
6.4
6.2
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.1
12.8
13.3
13.3
13.6
13.6
13.7
12.6
13.1
13.3
12.8
12.8
14.4
14.8
14.7
14.8
14.8
15.1
14.0
14.6
14.8
14.4
14.3
6.3
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.5
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.6
4.5
9.9
9.9
Jan
Feb
Mar......
Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
1
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
2
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
12
12.3
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4
9.4
10.1
9.4
10.2
10.1
9.2
10.3
10.1
8.8
9.8
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Labor
force
time lost
(percent)2
Fulltime
workers
Parttime
workers
5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8
8.8
8.8
9.4
6.3
7.9
8.5
10.5
10.4
11.0
10.9
9.3
9.3
8.6
8.1
6.7
6.6
8.8
9.0
7.9
7.8
6.4
6.9
6.9
6.7
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.7
6.6
6.6
8.4
9.4
9.1
9.6
9.2
9.1
9.0
9.3
9.3
9.2
9.2
7.6
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.3
8.1
7.7
7.7
8.0
7.9
7.8
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In November, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27
weeks and over fell while the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks rose. The mean
duration of unemployment fell and the median was unchanged.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
A/
—
\T<
50
JOB LOSERS
40
40
30
- 30
20
20
REENTRANTS
NEW ENTRANTS
10 —
JOB LEAVERS
Illllllllll
1982
1986
1982
1983
Illllllllll
1985 1986
1984
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Re a,son for iinemployment:
Durittion of imemployment
percent iistributuin
Unemployment
(thousands)
Period
P ercent distributioii
Numb jr of
all
ks
15-26
weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Medi-
32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
42.7
42.1
30.2
30.7
11.0
12.1
16.1
15.1
15.7
15.4
6.9
6.9
50.0
48.8
42.4
41.8
42.3
42.9
42.8
40.2
41.7
42.3
40.8
41.8
41.0
31.3
30.8
31.1
31.8
31.6
32.2
30.6
29.4
30.4
31.6
32.0
12.4
13.5
13.0
11.9
12.4
12.3
13.1
13.4
13.4
11.4
12.4
13.9
14.0
13.7
13.4
13.1
15.3
14.6
14.9
15.5
15.2
14.5
14.9
15.3
14.4
14.3
14.4
15.2
15.0
15.8
15.6
15.2
14.8
6.8
6.9
6.8
6.5
6.6
7.3
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.0
7.0
48.0
48.7
50.3
48.1
50.3
51.2
48.3
47.6
49.0
48.8
47.9
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
8,161
8,023
7,831
8,527
8,419
8,342
8,554
8,443
8,190
8,027
8,329
8,242
8,283
Insured
unemployment,
State
prograjus
Job
losers
Job
leavers
Insured
unemployment
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 1
Reentrants
New
entrants
25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,476
2,616
488
460
583
438
377
397
3,887
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,561
2,692
10.9
27.2
27.6
12.9
12.8
2,560
2,564
382
391
2,468
2,884
12.7
11.7
11.9
13.2
11.4
12.0
12.7
12.2
12.6
12.2
13.0
26.3
26.8
26.0
26.1
25.9
24.4
27.2
27.8
25.7
27.3
25.7
13.0
12.8
11.8
12.6
12.4
12.5
11.8
12.4
12.7
11.7
13.4
2,591
2,610
2,654
2,612
2,666
2,681
2,698
2,705
2,691
2,596
2,549
370
392
393
380
382
381
380
387
370
354
354
3,370
3,295
3,144
2,799
2,556
2,474
2,632
r
2,483
r
2,335
2,296
Initial
claims
Weekly average, th ousands
1980....
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar..
Apr
May
June
July
Au|
Sept
Get
Nov
1.
1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6
9.9
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 249,000 in November.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
24
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
n
—
100
90
r---
^*~~»-~_
rCl
^r^
r*^ ALLN ONAGRICUl TURAL
ES TABLISHMEhITS
__
80
—
70
SER\ flCE-PRODUC
:ING
INDUSTRIES
—
60
—
50
—
40
—
GOC>DS-PRODUC NG
INDUSTRIES
30
N
20
l[llllllllll
1982
I l l l l l l i ! ! ! IHUllllll M l l l l f l M I
1983
1984
1985
1982
1986
1985
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted]
Se rvice-produc;ing industr es
Goods-p reducing in dustries
Total
nonagricultural
employment
Period
M anufacturin g
Total
2
ri__
Con-
struction
Total
Durable
Nondurable
goods
goods
Total
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Wholesale
trade
_
Ivetaii
trade
Government
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
Services
Total
Federal
89,823
90,406
91,156
89,566
:. 90,200
94,496
97,614
26,461
25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,727
24,930
4,463
4,346
4,188
3,905
3,948
4,383
4,687
21,040
12,760
12,187
12,109
11,039
10,732
11,505
11,516
8,280
8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702
7,873
7,798
63,363
64,748
65,659
65,753
66,866
69,769
72,684
5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,159
5,242
5,204
5,275
5,358
5,278
5,268
5,555
5,740
14,989
15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,545
17,360
4,975
5,160
5,298
5,341
5,468
5,689
5,953
17,112
17,890
18,619
19,036
19,694
20,797
21,974
15,947
16,241
16,031
15,837
15,869
16,024
16,415
2,773
20,285
20,170
18,781
18,434
19,378
19,314
1985: Nov.... 98,666
Dee
98,910
24,931
24,977
4,765
4,787
19,259
19,289
11,453
11,461
7,806
7,828
73,735
73,933
5,272
5,277
5,796
5,809
17,589
17,622
6,070
6,095
22,415
22,501
16,593
16,629
2,904
2,913
1986: Jan
25,101
25,038
24,945
25,038
24,965
24,854
24,869
24,888
24,858
24,872
24,912
4,901
4,864
4,838
4,972
4,974
4,947
4,980
5,012
5,010
4,997
5,008
19,303
19,294
19,255
19,245
19,201
19,135
19,121
19,123
19,105
19,128
19,163
11,466
11,455
11,418
11,415
11,378
11,307
11,294
11,302
11,271
11,276
11,289
7,837
7,839
7,837
7,830
7,823
7,828
7,827
7,821
7,834
7,852
7,874
74,195
74,391
74,539
74,745
74,953
74,989
75,236
75,395
75,702
75,948
76,157
5,286
5,277
5,280
5,266
5,265
5,167
5,288
5,255
5,316
5,318
5,346
5,830
5,843
5,841
5,864
5,872
5,829
5,849
5,863
5,859
5,869
5,874
17,734
17,795
17,828
17,851
17,911
17,944
17,992
18,030
18,065
18,134
18,148
6,123
6,157
6,184
6,228
6,261
6,295
6,334
6,364
6,388
6,407
6,436
22,585
22,638
22,707
22,825
22,924
23,072
23,176
23,255
23,300
23,361
23,481
16,637
16,681
16,699
16,711
16,720
16,682
16,597
16,628
16,774
16,859
16,872
2,918
2,918
2,923
2,914
2,899
2,875
2,866
2,875
2,901
2,895
2,891
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Feb
Mar
Apr.....
May....
June ..
July....
Aug....
Septr r..
Oct ...
Nov "..
99,296
99,429
99,484
99,783
99,918
99,843
100,105
100,283
100,560
100,820
101,069
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-
14
5,136
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875
putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
* Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gi"oss hourly
earnings
Average weekly
hours
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985..
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
MaiApr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oet r
Nov "
Manufa cturing
Total
private
nonagrieultural1
Total
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.2
34.9
34.8
34.9
35.0
34.9
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.7
34.7
34.8
34.7
34.7
34.9
Total
private
nonagrieultural 1
Overtime
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
40.7
40.9
40.8
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
40.6
40.8
40.8
40.7
40.9
3.6
3.3
$5.69
6.16
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02
8.32
8.57
8.65
8.70
8.68
8.71
8.73
8.72
8.73
8.74
8.73
8.77
8.77
8.80
8.84
Adjust* d hourly earnin,gs index— total private
nonagncultural2
ing
$6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.49
'8.83
9.19
9.53
9.63
9.68
9.65
9.68
9.70
9.68
9.72
9.71
9.73
9.76
9.74
9.77
9.78
Percent chang e from a year
earlie r 4 5
Ind ex,
1977 = 100
Manufactur-
1977
dollars3
Current
dollars
108.2
116.8
127.3
138.9
148.5
155.4
160.3
165.2
166.8
167.7
167.3
168.2
168.5
168.4
168.7
169.2
168.9
169.3
169.6
170.0
170.7
Current
dollars
1977 dollars
0.5
8.2
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
93.4
94.9
94.6
94.1
93.9
94.0
93.5
94.4
95.1
95.4
95.4
95.2
95.1
95.1
95.0
95.1
95.2
r
7.9
9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.3
2.3
-3.1
-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.6
-.3
-.5
-..4
0
-.9
-.2
.9
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.2
1.1
.6
1.1
1.4
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent el rnnge from
a year earlier,
s
total private n onagncultural
Avera,ge gross weekly eamings
Period
Current dollars
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept r
Oet r
Nov"
Manufacturing
Total ]jrivate
nonagncultural l
$203.70
219.91
$189.31
183.41
$249.27
269.34
235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
292.86
299.09
301.02
303.63
303.80
303.98
304.68
303.46
303.80
303.28
302.93
305.20
304.32
305.36
308.52
172.74
170.13
168.09
171.26
172.78
170.42
169.49
170.20
169.72
170.58
171.94
171.93
171.83
170.67
170.57
171.46
170.49
170.78
172.17
288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
374.03
385.97
391.94
395.91
393.72
393.98
394.79
393.98
395.60
394.23
395.04
398.21
397.39
397.64
400.00
4
6
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners
and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base).
1977 dollars
Current dollars
1
Retail trade
Current dollars
1977 dollars 3
2
3
Construction
$318.69
342.99
367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
458.51
464.09
461.52
461.28
470.40
448.59
450.06
465.22
464.25
461.15
463.76
467.37
468.61
469.88
472.22
$130.20
138.62
147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
174.33
174.64
174.92
175.78
175.51
175.51
176.09
174.91
174.91
174.60
175.20
176.08
176.66
176.66
177.27
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.3
2.1
2.3
2.5
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.0
1.7
2.2
0.2
-3.1
-5.8
-1.5
-1.2
1.9
.9
-1.4
-1.1
-1.1
-.6
-.5
.4
.9
.7
-.2
.5
.6
-.3
.5
1.3
Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output JMjr hour of
all pe rsons
Period
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Outp ut *
Business
sector
Compens ation
Hours of all
2
perseins
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
houa-
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
191! 7 = 100;c uarterly
8
per
Nonfarm
business
sector
Unit labor
Real com )ensation
per h our 4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
costs
Nonfarm
business
sector
Implici t price
deflal ,ors
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
c ata seasortally adjus ted
1978
1979
100.8
99.6
100.8
99.3
105.8
107.9
106.0
107.9
104.9
108.3
105.1
108.7
108.5
119.1
108.6
118.9
100.8
99.4
100.9
99.2
107.6
119.5
107.7
119.7
107.3
117.0
107.0
116.5
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
99.3
100.7
100.3
103.0
105.3
98.8
99.8
99.2
102.4
104.3
106.7
108.9
105.5
109.9
118.8
106.7
108.5
104.9
110.1
118.8
107.5
108.2
105.2
106.7
112.8
108.0
108.7
105.7
107.5
114.0
131.5
143.7
154.9
161.5
168.1
131.3
143.6
154.8
161.5
167.9
96.7
95.7
97.3
98.2
98.1
96.6
95.7
97.2
98.2
98.0
132.5
142.7
154.5
156.8
159.7
132.9
144.0
156.0
157.7
161.0
127.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.5
127.8
140.3
149.2
154.3
159.3
1985
106.4
104.8
122.7
122.5
115.3
116.9
175.3
174.6
98.8
98.4
164.8
166.7
163.0
164.6
1982: IV
101.0
99.7
105.0
104.2
103.9
104.5
158.3
158.2
97.9
97.8
156.8
158.7
150.2
151.4
1983: I
101.9
103.5
103.0
103.8
100.9
102.7
102.9
103.3
106.2
109.2
110.8
113.6
105.8
109.2
111.4
114.1
104.2
105.5
107.5
109.4
104.8
106.3
108.3
110.5
159.9
160.9
161.5
163.6
159.9
160.9
161.7
163.4
98.8
98.4
97.7
98.0
98.8
98.4
97.8
97.9
156.8
155.5
156.8
157.7
158.5
156.6
157.1
158.2
151.2
152.3
153.4
155.2
152.5
153.6
155.0
156.2
104.9
105.6
105.5
105.5
103.9
104.6
104.4
104.3
116.9
119.0
119.5
120.2
116.9
119.1
119.5
120.2
111.4
112.7
113.3
114.0
112.5
113.8
114.5
115.2
165.9
167.1
169.0
170.6
165.6
166.9
168.7
170.4
98.1
97.9
98.1
98.2
97.9
97.8
98.0
98.1
158.2
158.3
160.2
161.7
159.4
159.5
161.5
163.3
156.7
157.7
159.0
160.3
157.2
158.4
160.0
161.4
105.7
106.4
107.3
106.4
104.4
104.9
105.4
104.5
121.3
122.3
123.5
123.8
121.1
122.1
123.3
123.6
114.8
115.0
115.2
116.4
116.0
116.4
116.9
118.2
172.3
174.5
176.4
178.0
172.1
174.0
175.4
177.0
^98.4
98.7
99.1
99.0
98.2
98.4
98.5
98.4
163.1
164.0
164.4
167.3
164.8
165.9
166.3
169.3
161.4
162.6
163.4
164.6
162.7
164.1
165.2
166.2
107.3
107.4
107.4
105.6
105.7
105.8
125.3
125.4
126.2
125.1
125.3
126.2
116.8
116.7
117.4
118.5
118.5
119.3
179.1
180.4
181.7
178.3
179.3
180.4
99.2
100.3
100.4
98.8
99.8
99.7
167.0
168.0
169.1
168.8
169.6
170.5
165.3
165.8
167.2
167.1
167.5
168.9
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985:
I
n
m
IV.
1986:
I
n
ra
Pei•cent ehaage; quarte rly data al seasonal!y adjusted annual rates
1978
1979
0.8
-1.2
0.8
-1.6
5.8
2.0
6.0
1.9
4.9
3.2
5.1
3.5
8.5
9.7
8.6
9.5
0.8
-1.4
0.9
-1.6
7.6
11.1
7.7
11.2
7.3
9.0
7.0
8.9
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
-.3
1.4
-.4
2.7
2.3
-.4
1.0
-.6
3.3
1.8
-1.1
2.1
-3.1
4.2
8.1
-1.2
1.7
-3.3
4.9
8.0
-.8
.7
-2.8
1.5
5.7
-.7
.7
-2.7
1.6
6.0
10.5
9.2
7.8
4.2
4.1
10.5
9.4
7.8
4.3
4.0
-2.7
-1.0
1.6
1.0
-.1
-2.7
-.9
1.5
1.1
-.3
10.9
7.7
8.3
1:5
1.8
11.0
8.3
8.4
1.1
2.1
9.0
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.5
9.7
9.7
6.3
3.5
3.2
2.6
4.3
4.0
.7
.4
3.2
3.5
2.9
3.3
4.5
5.1
2.9
3.4
1.5
2.6
2.4
3.0
1985
1.0
.5
3.3
3.0
1982: IV
3.0
2.4
-.5
-1.2
3.9
6.1
-1.6
2.8
5.0
7.3
.8
1.3
4.9
11.7
5.9
10.4
6.3
13.4
8.5
9.8
1.0
5.3
7.7
7.3
1.2
5.7
7.6
8.4
3.9
2.6
1.6
5.3
4.4
2.3
2.0
4.4
3.7
-1.6
-2.6
1.1
4.1
-1.9
-2.2
.1
.1
-3.3
3.3
2.4
-.6
-4.7
1.2
3.0
2.5
3.1
2.8
4.8
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.1
4.4
2.6
-.3
-.1
2.4
2.9
-.7
^.4
12.2
7.5
1.7
2.5
10.2
7.7
1.6
2.2
7.4
4.8
2.1
2.6
7.6
4.7
2.3
2.6
5.7
2.8
4.6
3.8
5.4
3.2
4.3
4.2
.5
-.8
.8
.1
.3
-.4
.4
.5
1.2
.2
5.0
3.9
3.0
.3
5.1
4.6
4.0
2.6
3.4
3.2
2.7
3.1
4.0
3.7
.9
2.7
3.4
-3.2
.3
1.8
2.2
-3.5
3.6
3.3
4.1
1.0
3.2
3.0
4.0
1.0
2.6
.6
.7
4.3
2.9
1.2
1.8
4.6
4.2
5.1
4.4
3.8
3.9
4.6
3.2
3.7
1.0
1.0
1.8
-.5
.7
.5
.7
-.6
3.3
2.4
1.0
7.2
3.6
2.7
1.0
7.4
2.7
3.0
1.9
3.0
3.2
3.4
2.6
2.4
3.3
.5
.2
4.3
.5
.2
4.7
.3
2.5
5.1
.6
3.0
1.4
-.2
2.3
.8
.1
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.1
2.3
2.3
1.0
4.5
.3
1.6
4.0
-.2
-.7
2.3
2.7
-1.2
1.8
2.2
1.8
1.2
3.4
2.3
1.0
3.3
1983:
I
n
m
IV
1984:
I
n
m
IV
1985:
I
n
m
IV
1986:
I
n
m ..;...
1
2
2.2
-3.4
-3.5
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
16
4
6
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in November, following virtually no change in the previous 3 months. The
index for November was 0.8 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDE X, 1977=100* (RATIOS CALE)
220
INDE X, 1977=100* (RATIOS CALE)
140
_ TOTAL 1 NDUSTRIAl PRODUCT ON
-
/•"^
^L
^^"^ ,*
100
120
160
\
MANUF ACTUR1NG PRODUCT ION
DURABLE
r^^^
M 1 M (l it 11 1 II III II 1 II
—~--~
S
s^x.
\_
r^
- ~j f^"
***'*
100
"^^^^
—
..•.*«•«•«•*
^
*•
CONSUMER
GOODS
—
1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 M| If 1 H 1 IIM'ltllll
1 1 III 111 1 1Illlllllll
1
N- ^—
1 II III H I M
140
120
,.»•**••*"
S~Z>
i—
^ONDURABL
-J^*......—-- * "~ /
100
r
DEFENSE ANDJlf^
SPACE
EGIUIPMENT
BUSINESS
—-^a^ ^
-«/^"
\
EQUIPMENT
\
J^*""***—"^
ts
«-r
'- "TC^N *—<**^ ***
180
__
^S
iiiniillll M 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I M i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 I 1 ll 1 11 1 1
140
FINAL P RODUCTS-
200
^-^~* "
120
PER CENT*
IMIlilMII
1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1
90
140
MANUF>^CTURJNG CAPACITY UTILIZATIO N RATE —
_ UTILIT1E S AND M1N ING PROD UCTION
—
120
"\
_J\
^**^*. „ ~**^A
"N^~M
100
,—&**
^—
1983
80
-^~»—*
j^
~?
**r~
70
"\_
^
— MINING-
I 1 1 III I | || 1|1 } 1 1 1 1 M | |
1982
,JT1LITIES
60 M.iilniii
' 1 1 M 1 11 1 1 1 i H 1 1 1 M 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 f 1
1986
1985
1984
1982
IMIlilMII
JJliilllili
1983
1984
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD C)F GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESE RVE SYSTEM
iin.l.M.,
1985
IIIMlllll,
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
Index,
1977 = 100
1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug r .
Sept r
Oet r .
NovP
1
Output as percent of capacity.
-
100.0
106.5
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.8
124.8
125.6
126.2
125.3
123.6
124.7
124.2
124.2
124.9
125.1
125.1
125.2
125.9
Capacity utilization
rate, pe rcent *
Industry proc uction indexes , 1977=100
Total
Indus trial
produ ction
Manufacturing
Percent
change
from year
earlier
6.5
3.9
— 1.9
2.2
-7.1
5.9
11.2
2.0
1.7
2.3
2.9
1.7
.2
1.2
.5
.5
1.2
.5
.6
1.3
.8
Mining
Total
84.21
107.1
111.5
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.4
126.4
127.8
128.2
129.4
128.7
127.2
128.7
128.2
128.3
129.2
129.5
129.5
129.6
130.5
Durable
49.10
108.2
113.9
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.2
127.3
128.2
128.7
129.5
128.7
126.8
128.1
127.0
126.2
127.4
127.5
128.0
127.9
128.6
Utilities
Nondurable
35.11
9.83
105.5
108.2
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.3
125.1
127.2
127.5
129.3
128.7
127.7
129.6
129.9
131.2
131.7
132.2
131.6
132.0
133.1
103.6
106.4
112 .4
117.5
109.3
102.9
111.1
108.8
106.9
107.4
108.1
105.1
103.0
101.0
99.8
98.9
97.1
96.4
95.5
94.9
94.2
5.96
103.1
105.9
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.7
111.0
111.9
114.8
112.5
109.7
109.3
109.4
108.5
108.6
109.7
108.3
109.7
110.9
111.3
Manufacturing'
Industrial
materials
84.2
84.6
79.3
78.3
70.3
74.0
80.5
80.1
80.1
80.2
80.8
80.2
79.1
79.9
79.4
79.3
79.7
79.7
79.6
79.5
79.9
86.3
87.1
81.1
81.1
71.7
75.3
82.0
80.2
79.4
80.3
80.1
79.6
78.5
78.7
78.1
78.0
78.3
77.9
78.0
77.8
78.2
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Produc ts
Materials
Internlediate proc ucts
Final product 8
C onsumer gcxods
]Equipment
Period
Total
Total
1977 proportion
44.77
25.52
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
106.9
111.0
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.3
131.1
133.1
133.2
104.3
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.0
120.2
122.7
123.3
123.8
123.3
121.8
124.5
124.3
124.4
125.2
125.1
124.7
124.7
125.6
133.9
132.8
130.6
132.1
131.6
131.1
132.0
132.6
132.5
132.7
133.5
June
July
Aug'
Septr.
Oet r
Nov*
1
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
6.89
103.7
99.9
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.2
112.9
115.4
115.3
116.0
116.6
112.4
115.9
113.8
114.3
116.3
115.7
117.4
115.9
116.8
18.63
104.5
105.4
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.1
122.9
19.25
110.3
120.4
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
139.6
145.4
125.3
126.3
126.6
125.8
125.3
127.7
128.1
128.1
128.4
128.6
127.4
127.9
128.8
147.0
146.4
147.5
145.4
142.3
142.3
141.2
140.0
141.0
142.5
142.8
143.3
144.1
Total1
Business
14.34
112.2
124.7
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.2
139.6
140.8
140.0
141.5
140.5
137.7
138.6
137.9
136.6
137.9
139.3
139.4
139.4
140.1
Defense
and
space
equipment
3.67
101.2
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
156.4
170.6
177.2
178.5
178.7
176.3
176.2
178.0
178.0
178.4
179.5
181.0
182.0
183.6
184.4
Total
12.94
106.9
110.8
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.7
130.0
131.8
132.0
134.2
133.4
133.3
134.5
135.1
137.0
137.3
137.8
137.2
137.8
138.4
Construction
supplies
5.95
106.9
108.7
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
118.3
120.5
119.8
124.0
122.6
122.6
123.6
123.5
124.1
124.0
125.4
124.6
125.0
125.7
Business
supplies
Total
6.99
106.9
112.7
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
133.8
140.0
141.5
142.4
142.9
142.6
142.5
143.8
145.0
147.9
148.6
148.4
147.8
148.6
42.28
105.9
110.3
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.2
114.2
113.9
115.4
115.5
114.8
113.3
113.8
113.0
113.1
113.6
113.2
113.5
113.3
113.9
Ener-
gy
11.69
101.1
104.1
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
103.9
103.4
101.8
104.5
103.0
102.1
101.4
100.4
100.5
100.8
99.9
97.9
97.9
97.0
97.0
Includes rip and prefabs, not shown separately.
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
No ndurable inanufactu]res
Durable mimufactures
TranspcHtation
equipment
Primary metals
Period
Total
1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dee
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Angr
Sept r
Oet r
Nov*
5.33
107.0
108.5
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.3
80.5
82.9
81.7
82.4
80.3
76.3
78.1
74.8
71.4
73.6
73.4
74.0
73.8
75.0
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Iron and
steel
3.49
107.5
108.0
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.4
70.4
73.9
71.6
72.2
69.5
64.3
65.6
60.2
58.3
61.7
60.8
61.0
61.3
Fabricated
metal
products
6.46
105.7
109.4
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.6
107.3
107.6
108.2
109.2
108.5
107.6
108.2
106.5
106.6
105.7
105.9
107.2
107.9
108.0
Nonelectrical
machinery
9.54
111.7
122.6
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
141.8
145.3
144.8
146.2
144.9
143.9
141.7
140.8
141.3
140.4
142.6
142.6
140.9
142.0
142.8
Electrical
machinery
7.15
112.9
125.7
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
170.5
168.4
166.9
168.7
166.1
164.8
165.2
166.8
166.0
163.2
166.8
167.2
167.2
167.6
168.9
Total
9.13
106.3
108.3
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
112.2
121.4
124.8
124.0
128.2
127.5
122.6
126.2
124.1
125.1
125.6
125.1
127.7
125.1
125.6
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
5.25
104.6
95.9
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
104.4
111.5
112.6
111.4
116.5
116.4
108.1
112.6
108.7
110.6
111.2
108.2
112.2
107.0
107.8
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
2.30
102.4
102.0
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
113.4
115.0
116.1
120.5
120.3
120.7
121.3
121.6
120.9
120.8
122.5
121.8
2.79
103.1
98.3
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.7
100.9
103.8
104.5
105.5
102.8
102.8
103.1
102.6
101.7
102.5
102.5
102.7
103.5
4.54
107.8
112.7
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
146.5
153.9
156.8
157.6
160.9
156.7
157.8
161.6
161.9
164.0
165.4
164.6
162.9
167.0
167.8
8.05
106.8
111.4
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.6
127.1
128.2
128.1
131.7
132.0
130.2
132.8
131.5
134.2
134.1
134.4
133.9
133.5
7.96
104.3
106.7
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
126.9
130.2
131.5
132.1
132.0
132.9
132.2
133.1
133.7
134.6
134.3
135.1
134.4
133.3
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Constructio n contracts 3
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Resiclential
Total
Commercial
and
industrial 2
New housing
Total1
Other
Federal,
State, and
local
Total value
index
(1977 = 100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
I illions of dollars
1978
1979
1980
224.7
250.3
249.0
257.8
244.4
279.2
327.2
355.6
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
179.0
201.5
194.0
204.4
193.6
228.5
272.0
292.8
110.4
117.2
101.1
100.0
85.4
126.6
155.1
158.8
86.2
90.1
70.4
70.2
57.7
95.7
115.1
116.0
30.7
42.0
46.7
55.0
58.7
53.8
68.6
82.7
37.9
42.3
46.2
49.4
49.5
48.1
48.2
51.3
45.6
48.8
55.0
53.3
50.8
50,7
55.2
62.8
114.0
121.0
108.0
112.0
111.0
138.0
150.0
161.0
Annual rates
Annual rates
1985:
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct '
Nov"
374.0
357.6
365.6
373.4
373.9
368.0
373.9
374.5
375.4
376.6
381.4
380.3
386.5
312.0
294.4
300.6
305.4
305.7
298.9
303.3
302.6
304.6
304.2
308.8
306.9
312.8
174.8
158.2
161.8
163.4
164.7
165.6
170.5
172.5
174.5
174.3
176.5
176.4
178.7
84.1
85.0
88.2
88.4
87.5
81.4
81.8
78.7
78.3
79.2
81.2
79.6
81.2
117.2
117.5
118.7
122.8
124.7
126.5
129.4
132.4
135.2
137.0
138.0
138.4
141.2
1
Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvements, railroads, electric fight and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential.
z
Includes hotels and motels.
977
1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,064
53.0
51.2
50.6
53.5
53.5
51.8
51.0
51.3
51.8
50.8
51.1
50.9
52.9
62.1
63.2
64.9
68.0
68.3
69.2
70.6
71.9
70.8
72.4
72.5
73.3
73.7
168
162
162
154
174
163
186
171
169
171
168
158
170
171
1,104
1,111
951
848
941
840
1,011
921
911
877
949
970
861
1,025
3
F. W. Dodge series.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New pri\ ate homes
New private housing units
Period
Units started, b} type of structuri
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8
1 unit
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4
2-4 units
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4
5 or more units
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1
Units
authorized
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,733.3
Units
completed
Homes sold
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,703.3
709
545
436
412
623
639
688
Vacancy rate
Homes for
sale at end of
period *
414
817
3
housing units
(percent) 2
336
272
251
300
356
349
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.5
398
Seasonal iy adjusted annu al rates
1985: Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb....
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug r
Sept r
Oct r
Nov P
1
1,784
1,654
1,882
2,034
2,001
1,960
2,019
1,853
1,852
1,782
1,795
1,664
1,628
1,598
1,118
1,006
1,098
1,335
1,202
1,221
1,242
1,241
1,230
1,137
1,186
1,102
1,090
1,093
80
76
83
107
115
84
79
83
80
81
89
59
81
71
586
572
701
1,703
1,668
1,839
1,541
1,721
1,762
637
722
729
353
353
349
6.7
592
684
655
698
529
542
564
520
503
457
434
1,861
1,808
1,834
1,885
1,788
1,792
1,759
1,673
1,603
1,565
1,592
1,778
1,725
1,806
1,693
1,829
1,620
1,761
1,763
1,733
1,736
735
741
924
880
787
722
r
698
618
732
662
352
352
338
6.9
Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.
2
336
336
340
349
353
356
359
7.3
7.5
NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-88
data are for 16,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales fell 1.4 percent in October and inventories rose $3.1 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales rose 0.5 percent in November after falling 5.2 percent in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
190
180
170
160
150
ODU
600
550
—
*
500
"
^^
450 -
r
—
^c\
\
—
1
_-— ~\
MA NUFACTURIhIGAND
TR ADE INVENT ORIES
140
130
-\
400
^f
r''
350 ^ w —— -*_-
120
\
H ^ANUFACTUFtING
A ND TRADE S ALES
110
—
100
300
RETAIL SALES
90
250 -
80
—
70
RATIO*
1 80
200
- INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
1.60
150 —
-
1 .40
Af\
\ ^_ »„....
\*
RETAIL
r^
N^
ii mhi 11 j iniiln HI III H |f 1 1 1 1 M M i l i n i i 1 1 1 yjj mi
1983
1982
1.00
iiinliiiii finiliiiii iiinliiiii
1986
1985
1984
"-"-^>^N_
XNx
^
MANUFACTURI ^G
AND TRADE
1.20
100
-
1983
1982
1984
1 1 H i| M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11111
1985
1986
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufaeti tiring and
tra< e 1
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Sales2
Period
Sales
2
Inventories8
Inventory-sales ratio 4
Be tail
Who!esale
Sales
2
Invento_;_. 3
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Inventories s
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
Retail
trade *
Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Oet r
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug r
Sept
Oct p
Nov*
r
260,805
298,334
328,058
356,919
344,656
368,724
410,737
424,091
399,608
451,460
494,105
528,105
509,555
520,328
575,098
583,148
66,669
79,472
93,704
102,013
96,290
100,424
113,404
114,494
86,405
99,262
113,478
118,259
118,149
120,265
131,544
135,940
426,123
43 1,382
432,797
581,986
582,381
583,148
113,947
115,762
116,852
135,038
134,831
135,940
431,713
426,854
420,230
428,455
421,613
425,475
427,473
429,310
442,206
435,803
584,968
585,176
588,178
588,599
586,727
588,908
591,895
590,141
588,069
591,142
115,648
113,380
112,495
114,608
109,870
112,873
114,375
114,482
117,594
117,984
136,624
136,561
137,056
137,083
137,506
138,793
139,753
139,742
139,878
138,567
1
See page 21 for manufacturing.
2
Monthly average for year and total
3
for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
20
67,231
74,926
79,963
86,777
89,339
97,858
107,755
114,495
r
114,947
115,489
116,861
117,349
117,200
116,684
117,715
118,675
118,960
119,804
121,523
128,331
r
121,617
122,251
43,863
49,397
55,049
59,688
61,279
64,817
68,939
71,645
102,694
111,098
116,346
127,201
126,497
139,381
157,845
165,324
50,136
54,108
55,117
60,327
58,952
66,928
77,142
82,875
52,558
56,990
61,229
66,874
67,545
72,453
80,703
82,449
_1.44
1.43
1.45
1.44
1.51
1.38
1.34
1.37
1.43
1.44
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.34
1.39
1.40
72,424
72,745
72,979
164,504
165,557
165,324
82,006
83,056
82,875
82,498
82,501
82,449
1.37
1.35
1.35
1.43
1.43
1.41
73,162
73,251
73,405
72,841
73,121
73,364
73,492
73,611
73,714
r
74,033
74,530
167,987
169,379
171,551
172,158
170,869
171,705
173,529
172,926
171,617
176,568
84,755
85,863
88,132
88,263
87,198
88,281
90,271
89,380
86,578
90,202
83,232
83,516
83,419
83,895
83,671
83,424
83,258
83,546
85,039
86,366
1.35
1.37
1.40
1.37
1.39
1.38
1.38
1.37
1.33
1.36
1.43
1.45
1.47
1.46
1.44
1.44
1.45
1.42
1.34
1.45
23,368
25,529
24,914
27,089
28,059
33,041
38,817
42,851
r
42,523
42,744
43,882
44,187
43,949
43,279
44,874
45,554
45,596
46,312
47,912
54,617
r
47,584
47,721
r
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
ata, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In October, manufacturers1 shipments were unchanged, while inventories and orders fell. In November, according
to advance data, durable goods shipments were about unchanged and new orders rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
240
200 — SHIPMENTS
360
320
160
280
INVEN"rORIES
—
•~—
240 _
120
—
TOTAL
200
DURABLE GOODS
^,...
L-wf—"'
T.^.—
80
„, , -
%.
•'"\
—
160
D JRABLE GOC)DS
" NONDURABLE GOODS""
120
60
-
-r-~
.
80
NOh IDURABLE G<DODS
40
60
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
240
40
RATIO*
40
1986
1982
1986
1982
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Manufa cturers' shipinents l
Manufac 3turers' inven tones
M ianulacturers new orders i
z
Durabh3 goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Durable
goods
Total
Nondurable goods
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
72,339
79,451
79,360
83,553
74,996
87,631
100,611
104,305
104,495
103,796
107,531
108,194
107,545
104,682
103,747
102,624
102,730
106,220
103,845
108,723
r
103,569
109,676
19,458
23,231
23,259
24,050
20,681
22,764
27,017
27,215
27,092
25,788
30,566
24,288
28,637
26,540
26,179
26,145
26,421
27,387
26,325
28,222
r
26,912
28,783
Total
Nondurable goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders s
59,207
259,770
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,260
85,627
91,024
91,499
90,886
93,069
93,682
92,939
91,014
88,314
89,404
89,498
89,065
88,340
88,991
90,676
88,933
302,145
323,393
319,094
296,918
330,924
355,640
363,809
364,946
361,680
363,809
366,226
368,511
370,456
367,475
366,529
364,682
365,948
365,479
368,597
364,897
Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio 4
Mdlions of do lars, seas 01mlly adjust*3d
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get p
Nov"
126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,027
170,441
189,578
195,102
197,229
200,131
199,084
198,716
196,274
191,051
196,132
193,068
193,642
193,294
193,305
196,281
196,202
1
Monthly average for year and
2
Book value, end of period.
3
End of period.
67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,693
84,951
98,502
103,649
106,479
107,007
105,777
105,631
105,545
102,693
106,592
103,672
104,553
104,980
104,154
106,027
r
107 ,443
107,498
59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,491
91,076
91,452
90,750
93,124
93,307
93,085
90,729
88,358
89,540
89,396
89,089
88,314
89,151
90,254
88,759
210,509
241,100
264,281
282,645
264,909
260,682
285,709
281,884
282,444
281,993
281,884
280,357
279,236
279,571
279,358
278,352
278,410
278,613
277,473
276,574
276,007
total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
137,891
160,533
174,620
186,347
175,103
171,629
191,109
189,164
190,508
190,284
189,164
188,518
187,644
188,333
188,031
187,637
187,148
186,858
186,045
186,102
185,358
72,618
80,567
89,661
96,298
89,806
89,053
94,600
92,720
91,936
91,709
92,720
91,839
91,592
91,238
91,327
90,715
91,262
91,755
91,428
90,472
90,649
131,546
147,403
156,161
167,752
157,255
173,259
191,634
195,803
195,381
196,865
201,213
201,133
198,559
192,996
193,151
192,122
191,795
194,560
192,836
199,399
192,502
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.64
1.73
1.52
1.45
1.46
1.43
1.41
1.42
1.41
1.42
1.46
1.42
1.44
1.44
1.44
1.44
1.41
1.41
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PBICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In November, the producer price index for alt finished goods rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. The index for
finished consumer foods fell 0.1 percent while the index for other finished consumer goods rose 0.3 percent. The
index for capital equipment rose 0.3 percent.
JNDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1967= TOO (RATIO SCALE)
340
04U
sEASONALLY ADJUSTE D
FIN1SHEI} GOODS
320
320
„.
c ONSUMER GO<DDS
3DS
„,.
.-^^ii^^c^^ •r^
x*^
1
^k
"
^ ^** «2IIlT^r^^'^'
*** ^str**^
E KCLUDING FOC
300
T OTAL FIN1SHEC)
GOODS
—
\
"**'
280
/y^?
s
260
Sfrf*
/s*^
v
200
280
-,
X
260
CONSUMER FOODS
~-t
CAPITAL EQ LJIPMENT
240
y
220
«p» /
jS /
/ "* >
/
*»***>/
/
sS
• ' ^"/"~^
?00
•''
/''
180
"
^
"** ' /r
/'
ji t
r^*^«/'
300
^'s'
w
240
220
^5V
^s-
-r,,,'-;^
J_*"1 1 1 1 1 | | 1 | 1 1 1 M 1 | M 1 |
1978
M M I1 1 1 I 1 1
m 1 1 1 n I ? i|
1 1 M 1 1 1 I1 1 ! 1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 t | r
1981
1980
1979
1983
1982
1 ! 1 I 1 I 1 1 !! 1 MIl 1 nI 1 | M 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1)
1985
1984
180
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Km shed goods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Finished goc)ds excluding consumer foo<is
Intenr ediate materials
Cnide materials
Foods
Foodstuffs
Total
finished
Consumer g(>ods
Total
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Capital
equipment
consumer
goods
Total
and
Other
feeds 1
Total
and
Other
feedstuffs
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
261.8
273.3
271.2
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.8
294.8
299.0
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.4
294.1
297.3
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1
236.8
241.5
200.0
199.2
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2
291.1
293.7
231.3
283.9
319.6
333.6
335.3
337.3
339.3
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.2
294.0
300.5
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.6
290.3
291.8
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3
320.0
318.7
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.9
253.1
232.8
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.1
325.0
325.0
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
330.8
306.1
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
252.2
259.5
235.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.4
484.5
459.2
1985: Nov
Dec
296.4
298.3
273.7
276.5
301.7
303.3
300.0
301.9
243.8
243.6
342.3
346.0
303.4
303.8
294.5
296.7
318.6
319.9
232.3
233.9
325.0
326.2
308.0
307.0
240.8
239.7
453.1
452.4
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May..
June
July r.
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
296.1
291.3
288.5
287.0
288.5
288.8
287.0
288.2
289.3
290.3
290.9
274.9
270.3
270.7
271.1
274.7
274.6
279.6
283.6
283.1
285.7
285.4
300.9
296.1
292.2
290,0
290.7
291.2
286.9
287.0
288.8
289.2
290.0
298.8
291.8
286.0
282.5
283.4
283.8
277.5
277.7
279.8
279.7
280.4
242.3
242.9
243.7
245.9
245.5
246.1
246.4
246.7
248.2
251.6
252.2
341.3
328.7
317.9
310.1
312.1
312.3
301.1
301.1
303.6
301.0
301.8
303.3
303.7
304.3
305.3
305.4
306.0
306.3
306.6
307.7
309.2
310.1
294.1
287.8
284.1
281.9
283.7
283.9
281.5
282.9
284.1
285.0
285.4
318.4
313.8
310.1
307.1
306.2
306.1
304.2
304.2
305.8
304.9
305.4
232.8
229.5
229.0
227.1
228.6
228.4
228.9
231.9
232.8
231.0
231.8
324.7
320.0
316.1
312.9
311.9
311.8
309.8
309.5
311.2
310.4
310.9
302.9
286.6
280.2
270.7
276.4
275.0
276.0
275.9
277.3
281.8
281.9
233.8
225.4
223.3
216.3
225.8
224.2
231.6
236.5
234.7
240.8
240.4
451.8
418.7
403.1
388.4
386.0
385.2
371.8
360.9
369.3
370.0
370.9
1
195.9
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
22
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.1 percent
not seasonally adjusted). The index was 1.3 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
340
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
340
320
320
300
300
280
280
-ALL ITEMS
260
260
240
240
220
220
200
200
180
180
1978
1979
1980
1982
1981
1986
1985
1984
1983
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Transportati on
Hou sing
She Iter
Period
All
items *
Pood
Total1
Total
Kenters'
costs (Dec.
1982=100)
NSA
Rel. imp.3
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
M*y
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
100.0
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
326.6
327.4
328.4
327.5
326.0
325.3
326.3
327.9
328.0
328.6
330.2
330.5
330.8
Homeowners'
costs (Dec.
1982=100)
Apparupkeep
Total1
New
cars
Motor
fuel
5.0
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
196.5
200.2
206.0
208.4
208.3
207.7
206.6
206.3
206.9
206.5
205.8
206.2
207.7
209.4
209.9
210.3
21.4
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
298.4
311.7
319.9
322.6
323.9
325.5
320.9
311.8
304.0
304.9
307.4
303.6
300.8
302.0
302.3
303.8
3.4
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
197.6
202.6
208.5
215.2
217.7
218.4
218.6
219.5
219.9
221.2
223.0
224.4
225.2
225.8
226.3
228.0
230.0
5.5
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
389.4
376.4
370.7
373.8
377.4
379.4
380.1
357.2
314.8
279.5
286.4
295.0
275.5
262.7
269.2
262.9
261.4
Medical
care
Ener-
6.5
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
357.3
379.5
403.1
413.0
415.7
417.5
420.4
424.5
427.2
429.8
432.8
435.0
437.4
440.1
442.6
444.4
11.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
419.3
423.6
426.5
428.4
430.3
430.8
414.3
387.5
365.2
366.2
374.8
359.6
352.7
355.0
347.3
344.9
gy 2
All items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter
NSA
18.5
211.4
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
291.7
302.9
309.8
313.2
315.2
315.9
313.8
314.1
315.0
316.4
316.7
319.5
322.5
323.9
325.0
326.7
87.9
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
323.1
336.5
349.9
355.2
356.2
357.1
356.8
357.5
358.5
358.2
360.1
360.2
361.1
361.9
361.8
361.6
22.3
210.4
239.7
281.7
314.7
337.0
344.8
361.7
382.0
390.5
391.9
393.3
394.8
397.3
400.7
401.0
401.8
403.6
404.8
406.7
408.3
409.2
7.3
14.4
103.0
108.6
115.4
118.2
118.5
118.8
119.2
119.8
121.1
121.2
121.7
122.5
122.7
123.2
123.6
124.1
102.5
107.3
113.1
115.7
116.2
116.6
117.0
118.0
118.9
119.1
119.1
119.6
119.9
120.6
121.1
121.2
Includes items not shown separately.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity,- and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc. also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1985.
2
Fuel
Mainteand
nance
and
other
repairs utilities
0.5
233.0
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
346.3
359.2
368.9
372.7
373.7
379.1
379.6
367.5
367.6
367.1
366.6
369.2
376.4
376.2 379.0
377.1
8.1
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
370.3
387.3
393.6
395.4
396.5
397.2
392.4
388.4
385.7
382.3
388.9
383.4
383.6
381.8
377.1
374.3
48.0
179.1
191.5
208.3
228.1
245.6
258.4
271.2
281.6
285.4
286.2
287.5
288.0
288.6
289.1
289.4
290.4
291.3
292.1
292.7
293.9
294.9
NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Chiinge from pr eceding peril>d
Consum sr goods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consume r goods
Consume r goods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
Foods
Change from 6 monthA earlier, anniial rate
Change from 3 month s earlier, auntial rate
Foods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dee. to Dec., Nl3A
9.2
1978
1979......
1980
1981
1982
1983.
1984
1985
8.5
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
2.3
8.5
.5
12.8
11.8
7.1
3.7
.6
1.7
1.8
7.8
7.9
8.8
17.5
14.2
11.1
13.5
11.4
8.5
4.2
-.8
.8
2.0
9.2
8.0
1.9
1.8
2.7
9.2
4.0
1.6
2.1
.9
•
Gltange, montil to mont h
1985:
1986:
0.7
.6
Nov
Dec
-.7
Jan
Feb
Mar
1.1
1.0
0.7
.6
0.2
.1
-.6
-.2
.1
.2
.2
.1
.1
.4
.5
.3
-.5
.5
.1
1.3
-1.0
-2.3
-2.0
-1.2
.3
.6
.4
.4
.3
.2
1.8
1.4
-.2
.9
-.1
.1
2.2
.1
.8
-.0
.3
-1.6
-1.7
1.0
.1
fc::::::::::::::::::
.1
-.0
June
July'.
Aug r
Sept
Oct r
Nov
....
7.2
4.2
9.2
16.0
6.2
2.3
.3
.0
5.9
.4
0
-.4
.7
4.7
3.8
2.8
7.8
5.6
1.1
.8
.4
.7
-10.5
-19.5
-20.1
-11.0
-3.0
-4.9
-8.1
-5.4
6.7
-6.7
-12.5
-11.7
-3.8
3.4
2.7
2.3
6.9
13.1
13.6
13.0
-7.8
-5.5
3.2
3.9
9.0
2.6
2.3
1.3
1.6
2.2
3.8
4.6
1.5
3.2
3.8
6.1
0.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
1.4
1.8
1.2
3.0
1.0
3.3
.3
-3.8
-6.8
-10.1
-10.8
-11.6
-13.7
-9.4
-4.3
-2.0
-2.1
1.7
1.6
3.1
1.3
_.2
-1.4
-2.2
-5.0
-5.3
-6.3
-6.1
-2.1
.2
.7
-1.4
3.4
10.1
9.4
.6
2.3
1.7
11.1
7.9
1.7
1.3
1.5
2.0
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.1
-1.4
-2.0
-1.8
-1.6
-2.4
-1.8
-.9
-1.4
-1.9
Source: Department of labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Tnunsportati m
Housing
Period
All
items *
Food
Total1
Total
1
Renters'
costs
Homeowners'
costs
Fuel
and
other
utilities
P
aml
Total1
keep
New
cars
Adden lum: All iteins, percent c hange
(annua 1 rate)
All
Ap-
Shelter
Motor
Medical
care
Energy8
items
toss
food,
and
shelter
From
previquarter8
From
3
months
earlier
From
6
months
earlier
From
year
earlier
NSA
C mnge, December toDecf ;mber, $ 8A
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985.....
9.0
13.3
12.4
8.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.8
11.8
10.2
10.2
4.3
3.1
2.6
3.8
2.7
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2
3.6
3.5
4.2
4.3
5.9
11.5
17.4
15.1
9.9
2.4
4.7
5.2
6.0
16.0
13.6
14.5
5.1
5.9
6.3
4.5
5.1
5.9
9.7
1.8
4.2
1.9
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.9
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0
1.7
3.9
3.1
2.6
6.2
8.5
7.4 52.2
7.5 18.9
9.4
6.8
1.6 -6.5
3.4 -1.7
2.4
2.4
3.5
3.0
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0
8.0
37.4
18.1
11.9
7.7
6.5
7.2
9.9 .
9.4
6.1 ..
5.0
4.4
3.7
11.3
13.5
10.4
6.1
3.2
4.3
3.6
6.4
6.1
6.7
1.8
-.5
.2
1.8
0.8
.5
0.5
.7
0.6
.4
0.5
.3
4.3
.1
.2
.4 -6.0
.2 -11.9
.4
.7
1.0
.1
.5
.2
.2
1.5
.6 -11.2
.8
2.5
.6
.6
3.0
6.6
4.6
2.5
2.3
.6
.7
.5
.6
.6
.6
.4
Chamge, mo nth to nlonth
1985:
1986:
Nov
Dec
0.6
.4
0.7
.6
0.5
.3
0.7
.4
0.6
.3
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
.3
-.4
-.4
.2
-.7
.1
.3
—.1
.2
.4
.4
.6
.3
.3
.5
-.3
.2
.3
.4
.3
-.1
.9
.1
1.1
.1
.5
.0
.2
.3
.2
.3
.1
.9
.9
.4
.3
.5
.2
.4
.3
.5
.4
.2
.4
.7
.2
.4
.3
.4
1
2
.5
.0
.2
.2
-.0
-.1
0.4
.3
0.3
-.0
.2
.3
.3 -1.2
.9 -1.0
-.3
-.5
-.1
-.7
.9
.3
-.2
— .3
0.7
.4
.8
.2
0
1.7
.4 -1.4
.1
.3
.6 -.5
.4 -1.2
.1 _ 7
.2
.7
.8
.2
.2
Includes items not shown separately.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc.,8 also included through 1982.
Quarterly changes we shown in the last month of the quarter.
24
0.7
.4
.5
-1.4
-2.8
-2.5
.3
.8
-1.2
.9
.4
.1
.5
0.3
.3
.6
.4
.3
.2
.8
.9
-3.8
-6.5
-5.8
.3
2.3
-4.1
-1.9
.7
-2.2
-.7
.2
.1
.3
.8
.3
.2
.4
.3
-1.7
2.6
4.5
5.3
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.8
5.1
1.2
4.1
2.9
1.6
.3
-.4
-.2
3.9
3.2
2.3
-1.9
-4.3
-2.1
1.5
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.7
3.1
-.8
.3
1.8
2.7
2.9
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.3
NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods,
_,
_
, T , «
* T t c , ^ ^
8omee:
Department of Lahor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers in November rose 3.3 percent from their October level. Prices paid by farmers in
October (the latest data available) fell 0.6 percent from their July level.
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
PRICES PAID
160
160
140
140
120
PRICES RECEIVED -
120
100
100
80
80
60
RATION
140
-
120
ii in
.
-^=z
100
80
-
60
1 1 1 1 I 1 11 111
1978
11 1 1 1 | I
II11
PN^T
^
1 1 1 1!1 1 1 1 1 1 minimi
1979
r^r-
RATIO
1
_
I
minimi minimi m i n i m i
1980
ilJ 60
RATION
140
120
1982
1981
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ml 1 III
1984
1983
;L
-^x->
1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 Ml 1 ill
|
1986
11
100
80
60
1985
J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
[1977 = 100]
PWees paid by farmer s
Pri ees received by farmera
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984.....
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
MMApr
Mky
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
115
132
134
139
133
135
142
128
127
128
124
122
122
121
123
121
125
125
122
121
125
105
116
125
134
121
128
139
120
114
118
113
111
111
114
114
109
105
101
97
97
103
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.
3
Not available.
124
147
144
143
145
141
146
136
138
137
135
133
132
127
131
133
143
149
146
145
145
4
All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates 1
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
108
123
138
151
157
161
164
163
162
162
163
163
(3)
161
(8)
(8)
161
(3)
C3)
160
(8)
109
125
139
151
156
159
161
157
155
155
156
155
(3)
153
(3)
(3)
153
(3)
(3)
152
(3)
Production
items
108
125
138
148
150
153
155
151
149
149
150
149
(3)
146
(3)
(3)
145
(3)
(3)
143
(8)
Ratio8
106
107
97
92
85
84
86
79
78
79
76
75
75
75
76
75
78
78
76
76
4
78
Derived using prices paid index for October.
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
In November, growth in Ml accelerated, while growth in M2 and M3 slowed a little.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*{RATIO SCALE)
3,600
3,600
3,200'
3,200
2,800
"M3"
L
2,400
2,800
2,400
2,000
2,000
_M2
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
1978
1979
1980
1982
1981
1983
1985
* AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SIASONAUY ADJUSTED
1986
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAl RESERVE SYSTEM
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar r
Apr'
May r .
June r.
July r .
Aug r.
Sepf
Oct r
Nov*.
Ml
M2
M3
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' cheeks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)
Ml plus overnight
EPsand
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker /dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances
363.0
388.7
414.2
441.1
479.9
527.1
558.5
626.6
620.1
626.6
627.2
631.0
638.4
646.1
658.7
666.8
676.0
687.6
693.1
701.2
713.4
1,388.9
1,497.5
1,630.3
1,792.8
1,952.6
2,186.0
2,373.8
2,566.5
2,551.4
2,566.5
2,569.9
2,577.7
2,592,4
2,622.2
2,649.7
2,670.8
2,699.2
2,724.3
2,740.8
2,764.9
2,780.1
1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments,
and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
26
1,646.4
1,803.2
1,987.4
2,233.6
2,443.5
2,697.3
2,986.5
3,201.2
3,181.3
3,201.2
3,224.5
3,241.5
3,262.4
3,293.7
3,315.4
3,339.0
3,375.1
3,400.7
3,425.5
3,444.5
3,460.6
L
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
1,909.0
2,114.8
2,323.3
2,593.7
2,850.1
3,163.5
3,532.3
3,839.5
3,800.5
3,839.5
3,862.2
3,881.2
3,895.0
3,918.4
3,950.5
3,972.8
4,002.9
4,030.7
4,059.6
4,082.2
Debt
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average) l
r
3,173.1
3,556.1
3,898.9
r
4,279.2
r
4,661.7
r
5,2 10.1
r
5,949.8
r
6,778.6
r
6,651.8
r
6,778.6
r
6,878.5
r
6,923.3
6,968.5
7,029.1
7,101.0
7,172.0
7,238.6
7,316.2
7,388.0
7,441.5
r
r
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve
Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2
Ml
8.3
7.1
6.6
6.5
8.8
9.8
6.0
12.2
13.3
12.4
10.7
8.9
9.0
10.7
12.8
13.2
16.2
18.7
17.9
17.8
17.3
M2
8.0
7.8
8.9
10.0
8.9
12.0
8.6
8.1
8.3
7.2
6.0
5.0
5.0
6.7
7.9
8.3
10.3
11.7
11.8
11.2
10.1
M3
11.8
9.5
10.2
12.4
9.4
10.4
10.7
7.2
7.4
6.8
7.3
7.2
7.2
8.3
8.6
8.8
9.6
10.1
10.2
9.4
9.0
Debt
13.3
12.1
9.6
r
9.8
r
8.9
r
!1.8
r
!4.2
r
!3.9
r
!3.2
r
!5.1
r
!6.0
r
!5.2
14.7
14.6
14.0
11.9
10.7
11.7
12.4
12.1
s of dally figures; billions of dollars, seasonally ±f;-::'"cf, :•:: .;•' :/
Overnight
DePeriod
Currency
mand
deposits
Other
checkable
depos-
its
(OCDs)
~
chase I
agreeGenerments
al
(RPs),
purnet, plus
pose
Instioverand
tution
broker/
night
only
Eurodealer
dollars
NSA
1978: Dec
1979: Dec
1980: Dec
1981: Dee
1982: Dec
1983: Dec
1984: Dec
1985: Dec
1985:
Nov
Dec
1986:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept1r "
Oct
Nov"
97.6
106.4
116.7
124.1
134.3
148.3
158.5
170.6
Money market
mutuaIfund
NSA
NSA
Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)
Savings
depos-
its
Small
denomination
time
deposits 1
NSA
NSA
NSA
Snv
oavings
bonds
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Bankers'
acceptances
Commercial
paper
301.8
327.8
329.9
413.9
436.5
80.3
79.6
72.3
67.8
68.0
71.2
74.3
79.5
107.8
133.4
149.6
184.4
214.9
266.0
308.4
27.2
32.1
39.9
44.3
44.5
43.6
41.1
102.8
109.9
135.6
161.8
209.5
876.0
880.3
432.9
436.5
63.3
66.0
78.4
76.7
79.0
79.5
300.7
308.4
43.1
41.1
196.4
209.5
885.9
891.0
894.7
895.9
891.2
885.6
883.7
877.2
871.3
861.8
854.3
447.9
451.3
450.5
452.1
446.4
445.1
445.9
448.0
447.2
443.2
443.3
68.8
70.6
71.6
71.5
74.2
r
75.3
r
75.0
r
75.5
78.0
78.1
82.4
76.0
79.2
82.7
81.5
79.8
80.1
r
78.6
r
78.4
81.6
78.6
79.5
79.9
80.5
81.1
81.8
82.6
83.4
84.3
85.3
86.4
87.8
305.5
307.7
300.2
298.8
305.7
r
299.5
r
291.9
r
288.2
289.8
289.6
41.6
42.4
41.7
41.0
40.1
40.3
39.4
37.2
36.8
37.5
210.6
209.2
209.5
203.0
206.7
210.6
212.3
219.3
221.1
222.9
265.3
234.6
237.9
242.7
248.4
271.5
6.4
33.4
61.6
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5
3.1
9.5
15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.6
0.0
.0
.0
.0
43.2
379.2
417.0
512.0
482.0
423.9
401.4
344.8
357.9
306.6
289.7
303.6
521.5
635.3
730.2
825.1
852.8
785.2
887.5
880.3
169.8 267.8
170.6 271.5
176.7
178.6
66.4
70.3
176.8
176.5
64.5
64.6
509.5
512.0
303.7
303.6
171.9
172.9
173.9
174.4
175.8
176.7
177.5
179.0
179.7
181.2
182.2
180.5
183.1
185.3
189.9
195.1
199.0
203.8
210.4
214.8
220.4
226.4
68.9
68.5
67.6
r
68.6
r
69.2
r
66.5
r
71.9
r
74.6
r
72.6
77.0
75.6
177.7
181.0
186.2
191.4
193.2
197.3
199.7
200.5
202.2
206.7
206.6
67.3
67.7
70.2
74.1
76.1
75.0
77.5
80.8
84.4
84.5
84.4
515.7
516.3
520.5
525.2
530.8
540.4
546.1
553.1
558.3
563.8
568.0
304.0
304.9
306.9
311.4
318.5
325.0
331.2
337.6
344.4
353.8
363.2
1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
Term
Eurodollars
(net)
31.8
44.7
50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
83.1
76.7
20.3
21.2
28.3
35.9
38.8
53.8
56.3
70.3
268.9
269.2
273.2
275.7
281.6
284.9
288.3
291.8
292.2
293.2
298.4
Term
repurchase
agreements
(EPs)
26.6
29.5
34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
62.2
66.0
8.5
17.4
28.0
78.0
103.4
131.3
146.3
178.6
253.5
261.1
Large
denomination
time
deposits 1
195.1
222.1
259.0
79.2
97.0
98.1
22.0
81.1
Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
NOTE.—See note p. 26.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in in stallment eredit
Installment credit outstanding (end of perio d)
Period
Total
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug r
Sept
Oet"
187,782
221,475
261,976
296,483
297,667
314,321
327,173
376,239
453,580
535,098
522,978
528,621
535,098
542,753
547,852
550,939
555,810
562,267
567,652
573,216
576,610
584,334
591,117
Automobile
Revolving
66,821
16,595
36,689
45,202
53,357
54,894
60,750
66,007
78,369
98,514
118,296
115,218
117,050
118,296
119,682
120,724
122,131
123,442
124,545
124,721
125,577
125,915
126,012
126,609
80,948
98,739
112,475
112,255
120,020
125,369
145,908
173,122
206,482
201,994
203,766
206,482
210,661
213,342
214,361
215,814
218,965
222,606
226,235
228,813
236,279
240,327
1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding
month.
Mobile
home
15,738
16,362
16,921
18,207
19,119
20,382
20,998
22,194
24,184
25,461
25,320
25,315
25,461
25,371
25,573
25,584
25,513
25,561
25,480
25,398
25,215
24,958
24,954
Other
88,628
87,476
101,114
112,444
111,399
113,169
114,799
129,768
157,760
184,859
180,446
182,490
184,859
187,039
188,212
188,863
191,041
193,196
194,847
196,007
196,665
197,084
199,226
Total
20,739
33,693
40,501
34,507
1,184
16,654
12,852
49,066
77,341
81,518
6,558
5,643
6,477
7,655
5,099
3,087
4,871
6,457
5,386
5,564
3,393
7,724
6,783
Automobile
9,832
14,127
17,791
13,736
-220
7,765
5,349
20,539
27,214
33,360
3,338
1,772
2,716
4,179
2,682
1,019
1,452
3,151
3,642
3,628
2,579
7,466
4,048
Revolving
2,088
20,094
8,513
8,155
1,537
5,856
5,257
12,362
20,145
19,782
1,368
1,832
1,246
1,386
1,042
1,407
1,311
1,103
175
857
338
97
597
outstandiiV 1
Mobile
home
350
624
559
1,286
912
1,263
616
1,196
1,990
1,277
-21
g
146
-90
203
11
-71
48
-81
-81
-183
-257
-4
Other
8,469
-1,152
13,638
11,330
-1,045
1,770
1,630
14,969
27,992
27,099
1,873
2,044
2,369
2,180
1,173
651
2,178
2,155
1,650
1,160
659
419
2,142
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.
27
BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.4 percent in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS'
TOTAL
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
'\
800
800
-LOANS AND LEASES-
600
600
400
400
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
200
200
160
160
120
120
OTHER SECURITIES •
80
80
1979
1978
1980
1982
1981
1984
1983
1986
1985
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: iOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Depos itory institutions 8
Al commercial ban b 1
Period
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept..
Oct
Nov P
1
Total loans
and
securities 2
1,014.4
1,136.2
1,240.5
1,308.2
1,401.1
1,553.5
1,722.6
1,900.4
,855.5
,876.0
,900.4
,930.0
,935.5
,944.6
,947.9
1,957.5
1,963.7
1,985.0
2,007.7
2,027.1
2,031.6
Total 2
747.5
849.9
915.4
968.4
1,033.9
1,123.7
1,319.7
1,449.7
,424.0
,436.8
,449.7
,469.3
,473.7
,491.8
,495.8
,501.5
,505.3
,513.4
,524.5
1,532.5
1,535.6
Commercial
and industrial
loans
246.2
291.3
327.4
355.9
392.5
414.0
472.9
499.5
492.7
495.7
499.5
502.1
502.4
506.1
507.8
506.7
508.7
508.7
510.4
510.7
512.8
U.S.
Government
securities
Other
securities
Total
137.6
144.4
170.6
179.2
201.9
259.7
260.9
273.1
274.2
276.0
273.1
268.2
273.6
269.5
270.0
274.1
274.8
285.4
290.9
294.1
299.4
Data
ta £are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages
of month-€
^
_o
;h-end data for foreign-related
institutions. Data beginning
January^ 1984 are not strictly
comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations
of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.
28
R eserves adjust*sd
for changes iii
res erve requirem ents
Loans and leases
129.3
142.0
154.5
160.6
165.3
170.1
142.1
177.6
157.3
163.3
177.6
192.5
188.1
183.3
182.1
181.9
183.6
186.1
192.3
200.5
196.5
2
3
27.85
29.15
30.99
32.19
34.41
36.16
39.51
45.61
44.24
44.85
45.61
45.88
46.37
46.87
47.28
48.58
49.45
50.49
51.32
51.81
52.40
53.83
Non-
borrowed
26.99
27.67
29.30
31.55
33.78
35.38
36.32
44.29
43.06
43.11
44.29
45.11
45.49
46.10
46.38
47.70
48.64
49.75
50.45
50.80
51.56
53.08
Borrcjwinp
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)
Required
27.62
28.70
30.48
31.87
33.91
35.59
38.66
44.55
43.49
43.92
44.55
44.77
45.27
45.97
46.47
47.74
48.51
49.58
50.58
51.08
51.66
52.84
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.
Total
868
1,473
1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
1,187
1,741
1,318
770
884
761
893
876
803
741
872
1,008
841
752
Seasonal
135
81
116
54
33
96
113
56
172
107
56
36
56
68
73
94
108
116
144
137
99
70
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses
Sources
External
Period
Total
Internal *
Ci edit market funds
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
1985: I rr
n
m Tr.
IV
1986: I rr
n
mf
mortgages
Loans and
short-term
paper
Securities
Total
and
Total
Other 2
Capital
expenditures8
Increase in
financial
assets
Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)
328.6
352.7
347.6
382.5
327.6
431.3
503.4
483.1
182.3
197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
285.7
326.3
352.5
146.3
155.1
147.5
143.0
85.3
145.6
177.1
130.6
87.8
94.3
93.7
80.6
87.6
116.4
82.1
33.2
20.9
53.1
22.8
44.0
57.3
-10.1
15.3
66.9
41.2
70.9
36.6
30.3
126.5
66.8
61.3
67.2
53.2
49.3
4.7
58.1
60.7
48.4
309.3
362.8
343.2
349.1
292.0
399.1
469.1
438.5
216.9
238.3
244.1
286.3
256.3
274.8
371.2
353.1
124.5
99.1
62.8
35.7
124.3
97.9
85.4
432.2
421.9
505.0
573.2
339.4
350.3
365.2
355.1
92.8
71.6
139.8
218.1
71.7
58.2
53.0
145.6
-10.1
29.4
17.0
24.8
81.8
28.8
36.0
120.8
21.1
13.4
86.8
72.5
407.9
406.6
417.3
522.3
340.1
349.8
349.0
373.5
67.8
56.8
68.3
148.8
24.3
15.3
87.7
50.9
413.5
455.9
389.6
361.7
355.6
359.6
51.8
100.3
30.0
87.5
67.1
15.4
51.8
50.1
17.4
35.7
17.0
-2.0
-35.8
33.3
14.6
393.0
430.8
344.7
380.2
354.4
336.3
12.8
76.4
8.4
20.6
25.1
45.0
85.0
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.
51.8
92.4
19.2
-10.1
4.4
33.3
35.6
32.2
34.3
44.6
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government,
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Current liability58
Curren : assets
TT Q
End of period
Total
QFR-FEB series: 2
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1983: IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
ra
IV
1986: I*
1
1,043.7
1,214.8
1,328.3
1,419.6
1,437.1
1,575.9
1,703.0
1,784.6
1,575.9
1,619.5
1,650.0
1,685.9
1,703.0
1,722.7
1,734.6
1,763.0
1,784.6
1,795.7
Cash
105.5
118.0
127.0
135.6
147.8
171.8
173.6
189.2
171.8
167.6
164.9
161.3
173.6
167.5
167.1
176.3
189.2
195.3
Government
securities
17.2
16.7
18.7
17.7
23.0
31.0
36.2
33.0
31.0
35.4
37.2
33.0
36.2
35.7
35.4
32.6
33.0
31.0
Notes and
accounts
receivable
Inventories
388.0
459.0
507.5
532.5
517.4
583.0
633.1
671.5
583.0
606.4
622.6
639.1
633.1
650.3
654.1
661.0
671.5
663.4
Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations. Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report, was transferred to
2
431.8
505.1
543.0
584.0
579.0
603.4
656.9
666.0
603.4
622.2
632.5
659.3
656.9
665.7
666.7
675.0
666.0
679.6
Other
current
assets
101.1
116.0
132.1
149.7
169.8
186.7
203.2
224.9
186.7
187.9
192.9
193.2
203.2
203.5
211.2
218.2
224.9
226.3
Total
669.5
807.3
890.6
971.3
986.0
1,059.6
1,163.6
1,233.6
1,059.6
1,093.1
1,126.3
1,155.0
1,163.6
1,174.1
1,182.9
1,211.9
1,233.6
1,222.3
Notes and
accounts
payable
Other
current
liabilities
383.0
460.8
514.4
547.1
550.7
595.7
647.8
682.7
595.7
601.9
623.4
642.2
647.8
636.9
651.7
670.4
682.7
668.4
286.5
346.5
376.2
424.1
435.3
463.9
515.8
550.9
463.9
491.2
502.9
512.9
515.8
537.1
531.2
541.5
550.9
553.9
Net
working
capital
374.3
407.5
437.8
448.3
451.1
516.3
539.5
551.0
516.3
526.5
523.7
530.8
539.5
548.6
551.7
551.1
551.0
573.4
ratio *
1.559
1.505
1.492
1.462
1.458
1.487
1.464
1.447
1.487
1.482
1.465
1.460
1.464
1.467
1.466
1.455
1.447
1.469
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Short-term interest rates rose a little in December, while longer-term rates fell slightly.
PER CENT PER ANNUM
16
12
V
F"
P/
Jfr—
10
PERCENT PER ANN UM
|
I
\
ft
!!
/
1
I1
/
1
U
16
l\ An
^i
'U'\\i
,»/ ';<-'
=4
\ I
\t
\f
f
v- a
\
/ 'i 1 ' '1
7i > '
V/
4
\
1
t
14
\ co RPORATE
A
Aaa BC
(MOODY'S)
H"A
/Hv.. \\
•
«•!
n
l
!
^1
1I
T\ r
1
^J
1
"
F
l\
/
/
x-^'j?
8
\../'
!
i
JP
pH/
\
F^
w~%
i
A
1
s^n
jj i i i i l i i i i i
1 1 1 I I1 I I1 11
MM
SOURCE: SEE TABLE Bf 1C
1111 11
\ 1 I l 1 1 l t ii
1980
1979
1978
1 1111111111
1982
1981
1 1 1 1 l l . II
1
II
1983
1 M M 1 1 M 1 1
8
x
l..--v*" - ...L
\U
'w
6
4
10
\
\
\
\
- DISCOUNT -J
RATE
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK
*..•
_j
F
\V
A
/
,.
12
\
\
L-"\
TRE fi6URY
I
\/""
^ysf^J
r A\
6
1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 II || 4
1984
1986
1985
w
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISfUS
[Percent per annum]
U.8. 1Veasury security yields
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Peb
Mar..
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Week ended:
1986: Nov 29
Dec 6
13
20
27
1
3-month bills
(new issues) l
Constant nlaturities
3-year
2
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard3&
Poor's)
30
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months l
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.R.
Bank)5
11.506
14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48
11.55
14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
11.46
13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
8.51
11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
8.18
11.94
14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37
12.29
14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01
11.77
13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80
7.69
7.20
7.07
7.04
7.03
6.59
6.06
6.12
6.21
5.84
5.57
5.19
5.18
5.35
8.88
8.40
8.41
8.10
7.30
6.86
7.27
7.41
6.86
6.49
6.62
6.56
6.46
9.78
9.26
9.19
8.70
7.78
7.30
7.71
7.80
7.30
7.17
7.45
7.43
7.25
8.64
8.51
8.06
7.44
7.07
7.32
7.67
7.98
7.62
7.31
7.14
7.12
6.86
10.55
10.16
10.05
9.67
9.00
8.79
9.09
9.13
8.88
8.72
8.89
8.86
8.68
7.69
7.62
7.62
7.54
7.08
6.47
6.53
6.63
6.24
5.83
5.61
5.61
5.69
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.00
7.00-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.00
6.00-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.35
5.40
5.51
5.55
5.49
6.39
6.37
6.38
6.45
7.14
7.09
7.09
7.12
6.73
6.81
7.01
7.01
8.55
8.52
8.48
8.51
5.72
5.75
5.77
5.92
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-
Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
2
Corporate
Aaa bonds4
(Moody's)
0
Prime rate
charged by
banks 8
New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6
15.27
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
12.66
14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
9.509.509.509.509.509.008.508.508.508.007.507.507.50-
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.00
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
11.01
10.94
10.89
10.68
10.50
10.27
10.22
10.15
10.30
10.26
10.17
r
10.02
9.93
7.507.507.507.507.50-
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
In the first 3 weeks of December, stock prices rose from their November level.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50
160
160
140
140
120
L
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
1978
1979
1981
1980
1983
1982
1984
1985
1986
PERCENT
PERCENT
20
20
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)
15
15
10
10
v
J_
1978
_L
_L
1979
_L
_L
1980
_L
I I
_L
1981
1982
1983
1984
VI L
1985
COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION
Co mmon stock price 8 1
Period
Common stock yields
(perce nt)^
Ne^w York Stock lx<Change indexes (I>ee. 31, 1965=50)«
Composite
Industrial
Transportation
1986 ^
Dow-Jones
Finance
Utility
industrial
average 8
Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143=10)4
Dividendprice ratio
Earningsprice ratio
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July...
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
68.10
74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09
113.93
119.33
120.16
126.43
133.97
137.27
137.37
140.82
138.32
140.91
137.06
136.74
140.84
85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79
130.53
136.77
137.13
144.03
152.75
157.30
158.59
163.15
158.06
160.10
156.52
156.56
162.10
60.61
72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11
108.61
113.52
115.72
124.18
128.66
126.17
122.21
120.65
112.03
111.24
114.06
120.04
122.27
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
59.07
61.69
62.46
65.18
68.06
69.46
68.65
70.69
74.20
77.84
74.56
73.38
75.77
64.25
73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21
122.83
128.86
132.36
142.13
153.94
155.07
151.28
151.73
150.23
152.90
145.56
143.89
142.97
891.41
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23
1,432.88
1,517.02
1,534.86
1,652.73
1,757.35
1,807.05
1,801.80
1,867.70
1,809.92
1,843.45
1,813.47
1,817.04
1,883.65
118.78
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
197.45
207.26
208.19
219.37
232.33
237.97
238.46
245.30
240.18
245.00
238.27
237.36
245.09
5.26
5.20
12.66
11.96
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
4.06
3.88
3.90
3.72
3.50
3.43
3.42
3.36
3.43
3.36
3.43
3.49
3.40
11.60
8.03
10.02
8.12
Week ended:
1986; Nov 22
29
Dec 6
13
20
138.59
142.16
144.18
142.63
142.01
159.49
163.83
166.15
164.19
163.62
120.43
122.42
124.70
122.28
120.39
74.82
76.60
77.16
76.51
76.19
139.99
142.94
146.44
145.65
144.47
1,851.72
1,912.30
1,936.03
1,923.20
1,923.79
241.11
248.40
252.22
249.38
248.46
3.50
3.35
3.29
3.33
3.39
78.70
37.35
1
Average of daily closing prices.
* Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
3
Includes 30 stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
* Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-
6.91
6.08
5.88
price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
Nora.—AD data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Bow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
31
FEDEBAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 2 months of fiscal 1987, there was a deficit of $52.3 billion compared with a deficit of $60.5 billion a
year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,000
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS}J
1,000
900
900
800
. OUTLAYS :
800
700
700
600
600
RECEIPTS -
500
500
400
400
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-F
-100
-103
-200
-200
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
FISCAL YEARS
1984
1985
V INClUDf S ON-BUDGIT AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
1986
1987
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Fiscal year or period
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or deficit
Receipts
Outlays
Gross Feeieral debt
(end of period)
Off-budget
On-budget
Total
Surplus
or deficit
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or deficit
Total
Held by
the public
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
332.3
371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5
-53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
216.6
231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3
271.9
302.2
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5
-55.3
-70.5
-13.3
-49.7
-54.9
-38.2
62.5
66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0
60.4
69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0
2.0
-3.2
-1.4
-3.9
-4.3
-2.0
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
-207.8
-185.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0
-72.7
-73.9
-120.0
-208.0
-185.6
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
-1.1
-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,576.7
715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,312.6
1985
1986*
1987 (estimates) l
734.1
769.1
831.2
946.3
989.8
975.1
-212.3
-220.7
-143.9
547.9
568.9
615.2
769.5
806.3
781.4
-221.6
-237.4
- 166.2
186.2
200.2
216.0
176.8
183.5
193.6
9.4
16.7
22.3
1,827.5
2,129.5
2,354.9
1,509.9
1,745.6
1,888.1
Cumulative total, first 2
months:
Fiscal year 1986
Fiscal year 1987
109.1
112.0
169.5
164.2
-60.5
-52.3
81.4
82.0
138.9
132.4
-57.5
-50.4
27.6
30.0
30.6
31.8
-2.9
-1.9
1,904.5
2,183.6
1,567.1
1,791.9
1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1987 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
August 6, 1986.
32
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
iiiUII
U
/CUI
CUIIIOI
UMU
UUIlU)r^
WCIC
billion lower.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
400
_
RECEIPTS*/
INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES
300
, i
"
—
300
PIIIII*
y
200
«.-
.— - »**"""
__«__
,
.--
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
_ — — — — — *""""""*"""
—
--
200
CORPORATION INCOME TAXES
100
T~
0
100
"BOTHER RECEIPTS |
1
1
1
1
I
OUTLAYS-!/ _
700
700
.NONDEFENSE
600
600
500
500
400
400
NATIONAL DEFENSE -
300
300
200
200
100
100
1978
1979
1982
1981
1980
1984
1983
1987
1986
1985
FISCAL YEARS
_!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
0n-budget $ nd off-buc get receip ts
Fiscal year
Total
Individual
income
Corporation
income
Social
insurance
taxes
and
On-bud,get and ofl -budget o»itlays
Nationa 1 defense
Other
Total
Total
buttons
Department of
Defense,
military
International
affairs
Health
Medicare
Net
interest
Income
security
Social
security
73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1
26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6
86.5
Other
1976
1977
1978
1979
298.1
355.6
399.6
463.3
131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8
41.4
54.9
60,0
65.7
106.5
121.0
138.9
34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8
371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5
89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3
88.1
95.3
102.3
113.7
6.4
6.4
7.5
7.5
15.7
17.3
18.5
20.5
22.8
26.5
60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
131.0
153.8
180.7
204.4
220.8
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1
131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6
1985
1986"
1987 (estimates) l
734.1
769.1
831.2
334.5
349.0
381.7
61.3
63.1
75.0
265.2
283.9
304.6
73.0
73.1
69.9
946.3
989.8
975.1
252.7
273.4
282.2
245.4
265.6
274.4
16.2
14.5
15.8
33.5
35.9
35.9
65.8
70.2
67.1
128.2
120.7
120.7
188.6
198.8
207.5
129.4
135.3
139.1
131.8
141.1
106.8
Cumulative total, first 2 months:
Fiscal year 1986
Fiscal year 1987
109.1
112.0
54.0
55.2
2.6
2.3
39.7
42.9
12.8
11.5
169.5
164.2
44.1
44.1
42.9
42.7
3.2
3.2
5.9
6.4
11.7
12.6
20.1
19.5
31.5
33.3
23.8
22.4
29.3
22.7
90.8
1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1987 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
August 6, 1986.
NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
15.8
19.3
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1986, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $19.6 billion (annual rate) and
expenditures fell $15.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $197.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200
BILLIONS^OF DOLLARS
1,20)
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RAT1S
1,000
1,000
EXPENDITURES
800
800
600
600
RECEIPTS
400
400
200
200
" SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)
-200
-200
I 1
1978
1979
1
I
I
1
1980
I
1
1981
1
!
1982
1
1983
1984
1
i
1985
1986
1
CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal G overnment expenditure s
Federal Governmeiit receipts
Period
Total
1983
1984
1985
659.9
1982: IV
1983:
I
n.....
ra
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV..
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I
n
mr
726.5
786.8
633.1
636.5
666.0
661.6
675.5
711.2
721.7
729.2
743.9
793.3
755.8
792.6
805.8
r
806.6
r
813.5
833.1
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
294.5
309.3
345.6
303.0
297.1
303.3
285.4
291.9
295.9
301.7
314.3
325.5
360.7
316.6
349.6
355.6
350.3
355.5
365.8
Corporate
profits
tax
accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
61.3
51.6
75.9
73.6
46.4
46.7
59.7
68.8
70.2
55.7
56.1
47.6
46.3
52.9
53.7
53.6
54.6
55.8
56.3
55.9
55.1
59.3
53.9
56.0
52.7
50.7
53.4
81.9
80.9
71.0
69.9
70.5
69.9
76.8
77.2
r
77.8
r
80.1
84.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
Contributions for
social
insurance
Total
835.9
252.5
896.5
285.5
311.5
984.9
835.7
236.1
246.4
822.7
837.4
250.1
253.7
838.9
844.7
259.8
865.2
278.8
885.6
283.3
287.6
901.1
934.0
292.6
955.4
306.9
970.6
310.0
990.1
312.2
317.0 1,023.4
325.8 1,001.5
327.2 1,045.7
329.6 1,030.5
or deficit
Subsidies
Purchases
of goods
and
services
Transfer
payments
Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments
283.5
311.3
348.6
355.0
86.2
93.6
94.3
115.6
354.1
293.2
285.5
287.7
284.9
276.1
283.4
315.2
317.2
329.1
333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9
355.7
367.6
369.3
380.3
347.4
344.2
351.1
346.6
352.5
350.1
351.7
356.0
362.1
374.2
377.2
384.1
385.9
389.3
396.7
403.0
99.0
84.5
86.0
86.1
86.8
86.0
91.5
93.4
92.6
96.9
95.7
98.3
100.2
101.6
103.5
106.9
108.0
130.5
87.2
88.1
91.1
96.8
101.0
107.3
110.4
119.7
124.9
127.6
130.9
129.8
133.9
135.0
138.1
134.7
Net
interest
paid
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises
22.9
21.3
20.7
23.4
18.9
20.2
23.4
29.1
32.9
15.0
15.6
21.5
24.4
22.3
15.1
21.1
18.0
36.5
15.4
Less*
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
-0.4
.2
-.2
.0
.0
-1.8
-.4
.0
.2
.2
.0
.6
.1
-1.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
national
income
and
product
accounts
-176.0
-170.0
- 198.0
-202.6
-186.2
-171.4
-177.3
-169.2
-154.0
-163.9
-171.9
-190.1
-162.2
-214.8
-197.5
-217.6
r
- 195.0
r
- 232.2
-197.4
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Consume r prices (1967 = 100)
Industrial jjroduction (1977 = 1(X); seasonal!y adjusted
Period
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
261.3
282.3
296.2
259.1
294.2
332.7
373.1
407.9
439.5
465.1
166.9
175.8
186.9
196.8
203.3
208.2
212.7
328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
631.8
698.8
764.7
359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
538.3
565.1
599.4
326.6
327.4
353.1
354.7
325.0
325.2
471.5
472.1
213.3
213.5
786.1
791.6
607.9
608.7
328.4
327.5
326.0
325.3
326.3
327.9
328.0
328.6
330.2
330.5
330.8
356.3
357.7
358.5
359.1
360.7
361.3
363.9
365.1
365.1
366.9
368.9
325.8
324.4
323.5
324.7
326.9
325.2
324.4
323.8
325.4
325.7
472.6
471.7
472.9
474.7
475.6
477.0
477.5
478.0
479.9
480.9
213.8
213.3
212.8
212.6
212.6
212.9
211.9
211.4
211.7
211.0
210.8
795.6
801.2
804.4
806.8
809.9
813.1
813.1
814.7
817.1
822.0
610.0
612.2
613.0
619.0
620.1
619.8
618.0
619.9
623.0
623.9
629.2
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298,4
311.1
322.2
110
107
!09
110
110
111
r
!09
107
110
110
111
107
106
103
101
102
105
106
107
107
105
102
103
106
112
1985: Nov
Dec
124.8
125.6
119.3
121.2
144.2
144.6
109
104
116
111
110.9
106.6
126.2
125.3
123.6
124.7
124.2
124.2
124.9
125.1
r
125.1
125.2
125.9
120.3
120.3
117.1
120.2
117.7
116.6
118.0
116.3
115.8
144.6
145.2
144.5
144.6
145.1
145.3
r
144.9
r
141.3
r
145.2
104
107
104
110
103
108
109
109
109
113
113
108.0
111.0
114.5
116.2
108.5
113.7
110.6
105.6
110.6
1
221.0
243.5
273.9
303.5
321.0
335.0
348.3
107
100
96
98
101
103
108
113.7
118.9
120.1
120.6
124.7
138.4
144.8
Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get*.
Nov*
Germany
108.7
114.7
112.1
109.6
103.9
107.1
108.4
109.8
108.1
108.6
98.9
104.1
112.7
118.2
113
117
112
116
117
r
l!6
112
Data relate to all urban consumers.
r
United
Kingdom
Prance
Italy
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.8
Italy
Japan
Germany
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985*.
1986:
United
States1
United
Kingdom
Canada
304.1
309.7
316.6
323.0
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*]
Her :handise exports1
Period
domestic
and
foreign
exports
Total
2
Food,
bevertobacco
Merch andise trade bsdance
Mei chandise imports
Gijneral import)8 *
Domestic: exports
Total
Crude
materials
and fuels
Manufactured
goods
Total
2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials
and fuels
14,227
15,743
17,735
18,551
53,554
Total
(f.a.s.) less
imports
(customs
value)
Exports
(f.a.s.) less
imports
Exports
(f.a.s.) less
imports
Manufactured
good*
value)
76,554
100,317
112,226
125,122
160,411
186,045
222,228
256,984
273,352 -27,305
254,885
31,759
269,878 -57,562
107,861
341,177
361,626 -132,129
-39,675
-42,691
-69,392
-123,312
-148,480
(C.l.f.)
F.a.s. value
1977
1978
1979
1980
121,232
143,681
181,860
220,630
119,024
141,142
178,633
216,515
15,963
20,604
24,587
30,407
18,579
20,957
28,222
33,719
80,151
94,473
116,587
143,891
150,390
174,757
209,458
244,871
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
233,677
212,193
200,486
217,865
213,146
228,899
207,076
195,917
212,034
206,925
33,206
26,977
26,979
27,312
22,226
33,022
33,518
29,555
31,482
28,344
154,283
139,716
132,409
143,142
145,384
260,982
243,952
258,048
325,726
345,276
18,350
17,817
18,819
21,626
22,376
92,873
74,404
68,037
72,758
64,981
142,475
144,022
163,449
221,515
246,778
1985: Oct*
Nov*
Dec*
17,618
17,721
16,994
17,122
17,227
16,479
1,836
2,128
1,907
2,285
2,559
2,459
12,102
11,688
11,221
28,429
30,010
30,728
1,598
1,865
2,138
5,656
5,657
6,011
20,271
21,557
21,654
29,695
31,371
32,141
-10,811
-12,290
-13,734
- 12,077
-13,651
-15,146
1986: Jan*
Feb*
Mar*
Apr*
May*
June**
July**
Aug*
Sept*
Oct*
17,006
17,735
18,913
17,965
17,431
19,070
17,707
17,604
17,518
19,330
16,501
17,164
18,349
17,376
16,691
16,427
15,911
16,831
16,860
18,594
1,797
1,689
1,706
1,475
1,395
1,438
1,648
1,814
1,672
1,866
2,467
2,367
2,349
2,436
2,228
1,776
1,764
2,035
1,988
2,287
11,393
12,182
13,325
12,615
12,274
12,298
11,623
12,042
12,253
13,367
32,005
28,895
31,972
28,762
30,272
31,764
34,121
29,476
28,695
30,018
2,215
1,908
2,100
2,018
2,329
1,886
2,143
1,931
1,963
1,935
6,234
4,741
4,284
3,176
3,659
4,163
8,963
3,413
3,874
3,514
22,477
21,289
24,261
22,226
23,001
23,971
26,609
23,106
21,849
23,537
33,465
30,225
33,435
30,036
31,638
33,240
35,745
30,925
30,078
31,389
14,999
-11,161
-13,059
- 10,797
-12,842
- 12,694
-16,414
-11,871
-11,177
- 10,688
-16,459
-12,491
-14,522
-12,071
-14,208
-14,170
-18,037
-13,321
-12,560
12,059
51,901
71,390
93,973
-29,158
-31,076
-27,599
-24,241
-39,179
-42,364
-40,368
-36,354
Customs value
1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded through 1984 and included beginning 1985.
*
Total
includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade bal-
...
* Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes
these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised
statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900.
** Foreign exports (not shown separately) include $2,050 million of nonmonetary gold bullion for
June and $1,250 million for July.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter of 1986 the current account deficit was $36.3 billion, up from $34.4 billion in the second
quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $37.7 billion from $35.7 billion in the second quarter.
BILL ONS OF DOLL ARS*
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS*
10
10
BALANCE ON G»OODS
AND SERVICIS
:
5
yj£S
—5
/^
\
*-*"'
'
in
^r3
A
\\
/N^ p»«- .—/ /
x/^x^ ^-/
0
%%
x
5
,*./*'/
0
BAL ANCE ON
CURREISIT ACCOUNT
\
/
\t
•'
r
\^
MPR(
-15
:HANDISE TRA
A\
-
X
—10
V
\
BALANCE
-5
-15
V
\
\*
v
N >\
\\ V
K\
f)/\
\\
%
01
f\r\
\
^*
\ Y ^*^'4 A ^ \
%%
v^>Nty/
>^/ ^\^^\ \
on
"\V
*%
%
-35
V**'
-40
I
1 1 1
1 1
1978
1
1979
1
1
1980
25
x^\
-30
"""~-~v
**
oc
^^
! 1 1
1 1 I
1 I I
! 1 1
1 1 I
1 I 1
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
-40
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENf OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER 5
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (-f), debits (—)]
Merchandise l
Period
.wet
balance
Remit-
•KT A
Exports
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
184,473
224,269
237,085
211,198
201,820
219,900
214,424
1983: I
n .
m
IV
In vestment inconae s
2
i
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I r
n.
up.....
1
2
Imports
-212,009 -27,536
-249,749 -25,480
265,063 -27,978
-247,642 -36,444
-268,900 -67,080
-332,422 -112,522
-338,863 -124,439
Receipts
Payments
64,132
72,506
86,411
83,549
77,251
86,221
89,991
-32,960
-42,120
-52,329
-54,883
-52,410
-67,469
-64,803
31,172
30,386
34,082
28,666
24,841
18,752
25,188
36
Net
travel and
transportation
receipts
-1,778 -2,935
-997
-2,237
144
-1,183
-274
-992
-4,227
-369
-1,827 -8,593
-2,917 -11,128
tances,
Other
services,
net 3
Balance on
goods and
services *
Balance
on current
account
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1
5,138
-991
6,214
-6,128
9,466 -7,593
1,873
7,793
13,764 -7,425
6,339
8,699
-8,917
8,829
-214
-9,131
9,711 -37,123 -9,481 -46,604
9,881
-94,308 -12,157 - 106,466
10,603 -102,694 -14,983 -117,677
49,642
49,216
50,351
52,611
-59,476
-64,798
-70,740
-73,886
-9,834
-15,582
-20,389
-21,275
18,077
18,732
20,684
19,758
-12,228
-12,807
-13,536
-13,839
5,849
5,925
7,148
5,919
492
32
-131
-762
-588
-916
-1,226
-1,497
2,238
2,486
2,436
2,552
-1,843
-8,055
-12,162
-15,063
-1,752
-2,021
-2,375
-3,333
3,595
-10,076
-14,537
-18,396
53,614
54,590
55,691
56,005
-79,415
-83,684
-84,144
-85,179
-25,801
-29,094
-28,453
-29,174
22,860
21,104
21,396
20,861
-15,446
-17,208
-17,991
-16,823
7,414
3,896
3,405
4,038
-281
-615
-234
-696
-1,834
-2,052
-2,332
-2,375
2,630
2,471
2,448
2,333
-17,872
-25,394
-25,166
-25,874
-2,368
-2,439
-3,107
-4,243
-20,240
-27,833
-28,273
-30,117
55,324
53,875
52,498
52,727
-80,369
-84,242
-84,173
-90,079
-25,045
-30,367
-31,675
-37,352
18,726
22,253
24,502
24,509
-16,507
-16,804
-16,240
- 15,254
2,219
5,449
8,262
9,255
-246
-729
-619
-1,322
- 2,202
- 2,864
r
- 3,031
r
- 3,031
2,442
2,552
2,609
2,999
- 22,832
- 24,454
- 29,451
-3,280
-3,458
-4,001
-4,244
26,112
- 29,417
- 28,455
r
- 33,695
53,661
55,149
55,318
-90,120
-90,818
-92,987
-36,459
-35,669
-37,669
24,216
22,636
22,482
-17,699
-17,311
-16,973
6,517
5,325
5,509
-1,066
-695
-624
-2,701
-2,395
-2,415
2,694
3,100
3,096
-31,015
-30,334
-32,103
-3,023
-4,079
-4,177
-34,038
-34,413
-36,280
Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in tuning and coverage,
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
3
Net
TO- A
.wet
military
transactions
r
r
r
r
- 25,959
r
r
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
r
r
r
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion in the third quarter of
1986 compared with a rise of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial
institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $32.2 billion in the third quarter of 1986 compared to an increase of
$3.6 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
80
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET
60
60
\
40
40
/ \
20
20
V
V
r\
•A
-40
-60
I
1978
1979
I I
1980
CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
A BROAD, NET-
-20
[\
-40
i i
I
1981
I 1
1982
I
1
1983
I I
1984
1
I
-60
I
1986
19i85
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Foreign assets in the II.S., net
[increase /capital inflowM-h)] 2
U.S. assets abroad, net
increase /capitail outflow (— ) 1
Period
Total
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1983: I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
ra
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1986: I r
n
m *...
TJ.S.
official
reserve
assets l 2
Other TJ.S.
Government
assets
U.S.
private
assets
Total
Foreign
official
assets
Other
foreign
assets
3,746 -59,453
-5,162 -72,802
5,097 -100,758
-6,131 -110,177
-5,005 -43,821
-5,523 - 14,986
-2,824 -25,754
38,752
58,112
83,322
94,078
85,496
102,767
127,106
13,665
15,497
4,960
3,593
5,968
3,037
-1,324
52,416
42,615
78,362
90,486
79,527
99,730
128,430
Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)
Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy
U S official
reserve
assets, net *
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186
25,431
24,982
20,276
36,325
11,130
27,338
23,006
-64,331
-86,118
-111,031
-121,273
-50,022
-23,639
-32,436
-1,133
8,155
-5,175
4,965
-1,196
-3,131
-3,858
-23,691
-523
-8,621
-17,186
-787
16
529
-953
-1,134
-1,263
-1,171
-1,436
-21,770
724
-7,979
-14,797
16,200
15,756
19,531
34,009
38
1,591
-2,662
7,002
16,162
14,165
22,194
27,007
11,086
5,157
3,626
1,573
-176
-3,155
3,417
34,261
33,876
33,066
33,747
-3,571
-20,171
16,443
-16,338
-657
-566
-799
-1,110
-2,029
-1,386
-1,388
-717
-885
-18,220
18,630
-14,512
22,251
41,963
2,668
35,885
-2,947
-157
-765
6,906
25,198
42,120
3,433
28,979
1,560
6,040
9,162
10,570
940
-962
-3,561
3,577
34,975
34,547
34,306
34,934
-510
-2,793
-5,867
-23,266
-233
-356
-121
-3,148
-807
-1,055
-422
-540
530
-1,382
-5,324
-19,579
14,247
25,358
35,665
51,837
11,066
8,486
2,577
-1,322
25,313
16,872
33,088
53,158
12,375
6,852
r
- 1,343
r
5,125
r
1,094
- 1,174
r
- 3,687
r
3,771
35,493
36,088
38,295
43,186
-12,898
-25,550
-29,082
-115
16
280
-250
-209
-1,346
-12,533
-25,357
-28,016
36,620
47,526
69,133
2,469
14,704
15,839
34,151
32,822
53,294
10,316
12,437
-3,771
1,216
-1,505
-3,993
44,919
46,595
48,087
1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position
in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDEs)
1,139
1,152
1,093
r
r
-88
r
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
r*
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
.
..
,
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector..
„....
.!....
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures.......
New Construction..
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers.....
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
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