Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1949

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81st Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators
1949
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Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

STATES
OOVERF NT PRINTI NG OFFICE
3HINGTON : 1949

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. M^'ERS, Pennsylvania

WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas

JOHN J. SPAP-&MAN, Alabama

WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio

PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois

FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania

ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio

JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan

RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont

ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania

ARTHUR ^ WATKINS, Utah

CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts

THEODORE J. KEEPS, Staff Director
GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff

Director

JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

[PUBLIC LAW 120 — 81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237 — IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Sen*** an^ House of &fy*sentatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report be authorize^ to issue a mont^y lublication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one
copy to each Mender of Congress; the Sectary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the
House of Represe^tati ves ; two copies to the ^Varies of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
mittee on the Economic Report; an
and te
the -e^ired number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
Committee
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documt^ ^ auth0rized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.

To the Members of Congress:

_

From the time the Joint Committee on tn*7conolll];c Report was established its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful pictui^ current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee toun
\onomic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
by the Council of Economic Advisers, admiraD y i t^s neecj While this material was prepared originally for the
use of the President, the Council, and other official ^ executive officeS5 t h e Council made it available to the joint
Other Members of Congress also expresse a
^ ^ ^^^ aj3]e to o k ta j n a quick picture of current economic
facts without having to go through voluminous an j a jj 2e( j d ocuments> in addition businessmen, farm leaders,
labor organizations, and representatives of ^^f^^iio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided * e .^ss and the public with a limited number of copies of
Economic Indicators as a committee print pen ing
authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
As is indicated above such legislation has now been pass
^ committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
Comments or suggestions with respect to pos

Digitized for 11
FRASER


*

^^ ^ ^.^ presentat]on w jj] aiwavs be welcome.

'irman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter of Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours,




Acting Chairman.

'

/'

111

Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget

Page

1

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

2
3
4
5

EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries
Farm Income
,
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public




20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Economic activity declined slightly from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter, both in dollars and in real
terms. Consumer income dropped moderately but expenditures remained fairly stable.
1949
2nd Ounrtpr
i *, r ^ , fc.i v x w u i i * > »
TOTAL

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)^

EXCESS OF

EXPFNDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (-f)

(Gross National Product )

m

59 6

CONSUMERS

Transfer payments^

1

wmmmm^mmmmmmmwmwLwmmmmmmmm

••:>:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•.-:•:':•:•:•:•:•••:•:•:<•:•:•:-••:•<:•:•<:•.<:•<<:•.::<•>•••••••.•.•.•.•.•.•. .•.•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•••:•:•:<•:<•:•:•:•••:••••••.•••<••:-• •<^-'-:- .^•:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:---:-\-:-i:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:^

)

+

,
•...•..:.-.-..:...-.-::;::::i
:!:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;
'• : ' : ' ::::::: ' :;X '

CONSUMER
SAVING

l78 9

'

BUSINESS
28.5

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
•

INTERNATIONAL

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT

( Federal, state and local )

I
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l

558

jj

CASH
DEFICIT

^"Transfer payments
1949,
TOTAL

m

3rd-

Quarter

( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

(Gross National Product)

"

CONSUMERS

Transfer payments!^

m

'»'••

178

n

CON-

SUMER
SAVING

'

BUSINESS
=;:;;;;*;:;:*;;
2, ,
::;::::::::: •:•:•:• 27.4
: ::>: : :|:::':;
r:

in

:

jllli,

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

INTERNATIONAL

1:

EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS

B

GOVERNMENT

( Federal, state and local)
57.3

%

"—"
Li

j^ANNU

M. R A T E S , -EA,OHAULY ADJtoiED.

SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1949, APPENDIX A.




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

CASH
DEFICIT

PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Since February, the consumers' price index has fluctuated within a narrow range. A drop of nearly
4 points in the index of food prices in October brought the total index down about 2/3 of I percent.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

1940

1941

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1948

1947

1949

•ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, REFRIGERATION, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average _ 1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average.1946 monthly average
1947 monthlv average
1948 monthly average
1948: October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May__
June
July
August
.
September
_ _ _ _ _ _
October. _ _

All items
99 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
173. 6
172. 2
171. 4
170. 9
169. 0
169. 5
169. 7
169. 2
169. 6
168. 5
168. 8
169. 6
168. 5

Food
95 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
204. 8
199 7
201. 6
202. 8
202. 4
204. 3
201. 7
202. 6
204. 2
200. 6

NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities,
Source: Department of Labor.



Apparel
100 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198. 0
201. 6
201.4
200. 4
196. 5
195 1
193. 9
192. 5
191. 3
190. 3
188. 5
187. 4
187. 2
186. 8

Rent
104 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108. 0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
117. 4
118. 7
118. 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9
120. 1
120. 3
120. 4
120. 6
120. 7
120. 8
121. 2
121. 5

Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration

House furnishings

99.0
99. 7
102. 2
105. 4
107. 7
109. 8
110. 3
112. 4
121. 1
133. 9
137. 8
137. 9
137. 8
138. 2
138. 8
138. 9
137. 4
135. 4
135. 6
135. 6
135. 8
137. 0
138. 4

101. 3
100.5
107. 3
122. 2
125. 6
136. 4
145. 8
159. 2
184.4
195. 8
198. 8
198. 7
198. 6
196. 5
195. 6
193.8
191. 9
189. 5
187. 3
186. 8
184. 8
185. 6
185. 2

Miscellaneous
100.7
101. 1
104.0
110. 9
115. 8
121.3
124. 1
128.8
139.9
149. 9
153.7
153. 9
154. 0
154. 1
154. 1
154.4
154. 6
154. 5
154. 2
154. 3
154. 8
155. 2
155. 2

WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices were at a lower level during November because of a drop in farm prices and foods.
Industrial prices maintained the overall stability that began at the end of June.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220

220

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1926=100]

1941 monthlv average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948- October
«
November
December
1949: January __ _ _
February ..
March
April
_~
May
June
July
- --August
September
October
November *
Week ended:
October 25
November 1
8




15

22
29
1

_

87. 3
98. 8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 1
165.4
164. 0
162.4
160. 6
158. 1
158.4
156. 9
155. 7
154. 5
153.5
152. 9
153. 7
152. 2
151. 4

82. 4
105. 9
148. 9
140. 1
181. 2
188. 3
183. 5
180. 8
177. 3
172. 5
168. 3
171.5
170. 5
171. 2
168. 8
166.2
162. 3
163. 1
159. 6
155. 9

82. 7
99.6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 1
178. 2
174 3
170.2
165.8
161.5
162. 9
162. 9
163. 8
162.4
161. 3
160. 6
162.0
159. 6
158. 2

Other than
farm products and foods
89.0
95. 5
109. 5
105.6
135. 2
151.0
153.4
153.6
153. 1
152. 9
151.8
150.7
148. 9
146.8
145. 6
145.0
145.0
145. 3
145. 0
145.0

152. 5
151. 4
151. 5
151. 4
151. 5
151. 4

158. 5
156. 3
156. 7
156. 5
156. 8
155. 3

161. 7
158. 7
159.3
159. 6
159. 5
157. 9

144. 8
144. 6
144. 8
144. 8
145. 0
145. 1

All commodities

Period

-

» .
-

--- --

- -

_
_

~_
-

_~ -

_______

Estimate based on change in weekly index.
Source: Department of Labor.

Farm products

Foods

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Farm prices decreased again from October to November with substantial drops in prices of hogs, soybeans,
corn and eggs, but a sharp recovery in truck crops. The parity ratio reached 100, lower than at any
time since December 1941,
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350

PRICES RECEIVED

300

250

PRICES PAID
(INCL, INTEREST, TAXES}

200

PARITY RATIO*

100

I

1939

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

I

I

1 - 1 -1

»

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

1

I

J ' F ' M A ' M J J ' A S ' O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O

1947

1948

*- RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Prices paid by
Prices
(includ8
received l farmers
ing interest Parity ratio
by farmers
and taxes)2

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: October
November
December1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
1
August 1909-July
8
1910-14= 100.
1




4

.._ _._

.

_

95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
277
271
268

124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
249
247
247

77
94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115
111
109
108

268
258
261
260
256
252
249
245
249
243
239

248
245
246
246
245
245
244
243
242
240
240

108
105
106
106
104
103
102
101
103
101
100

1914=100.

Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

In

STOCK PRICES
Despite periods of buoyancy of the stock market during November, prices at 1h,e end of the month
were close to those at the end of October. Utilities stock made the best showing.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE

175

175

WEEKLY AVERAGE

WEEKLY

AVERAGE

INDUSTRIALS

^rj n?
RAILROADS

.-/
v

;

UTILITIES

**• •. •*

1939 4 0 41 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.

[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1

Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
1946
1948
1948: October.
November
December
1949: January
February
March _
April
MayJune
July
August
September
October
November
__ _
Week ended:
November 2
9

16
23
30

_ _
_

Railroads

Industrials

94. 2
69 4
139. 9
124 4
127 8
120. 4
119. 4
121. 0
117. 2
118. 0
118. 5
117. 7
112. 0
117. 8
121. 9
123. 8
127. 3
129. 1

94. 8
71 3
143. 4
130. 6
134. 3
126. 4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
123. 7
124. 2
123. 4
117. 0
123. 4
128. 2
130. 3
134. 4
136. 5

130.
129.
127.
129.
128

138.
136.
134.
137.
135.

3
4
7
7
6

0
8
7
1
7

Utilities

74. 7
66. 1
143. 0
114. 7
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
99. 6
97. 4
97. 1
95. 8
88.4
90. 6
94. 6
95. 1
97. 6
96.2

98. 6
61. 3
120.2
96. 2
97.4
94.2
92. 9
94. 2
94. 4
95. 3
96. 1
95.3
93. 0
95.4
98. 5
100.0
101. 2
102. 6

96. 9
96. 9
95. 6
96. 3
95. 5

102. 1
102. 4
102. 3
103. 1
103. 0

1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
99186—49
2
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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D

EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
The ending1 of work stoppages combined with seasonal improvement caused"•nonagriculturaremployment to
increase in November, Agricultural employment rose contraseasanaL Unemployment declined slightly^
MILLIONS OF PERSONS

MILLIONS OF PERSONS

70

70
UNEMPLOYMENT

P

NONAGRICULTURAL

j

EMPLOYMENT

., . .

.

i

I r

UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED S C A L E

1939

1944

1946

n FT

1947

1948

MONTHLY AVERAGE
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.




[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]

Period

1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: October
.
November
December
1949: January
February
March
_
April
_
May
June
July
August
September
__ _
October
November _ _ _ _

Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
55, 600
65, 890
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
64, 8(36
65, 278
65, 105
64, 222
64, 021
64, 363

Civilian employment 1
Total
45, 750
53, 960
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
57, 414
57, 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59, 619
59, 720
59, 947
59,411
59, 001
59, 518

In non*
agricultural
industries
36, 140
45, 010
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
51,506
51, 932
52, 059
50, 651
50, 374
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49, 924
50, 073
51,441
51, 254
51, 290
51, 640

In agriculture
9,610
8, 950
8, 320
8, 266
7,973
8,627
7,961
7,375
6, 763
6, 993
7,393
7,820
8,974
9, 696
9,647
8,507
8, 158
7, 710
7, 878

Armed
forces

370
11,260
3,300
1,440
1,307
1,391
1,414
1,453
1,468
1, 508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1,468
1,463
1,468
1, 459
1, 445
1, 436

Unemployment

9,480
670
2,270
2, 142
2,064
1,642
1,831
1,941
2, 664
3, 221
3, 167
3,016
3,289
3, 778
4,095
3,689
3,351
3,576
3,409

1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation,
illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

N<DNAGRICULTURAL

LO1

-

INDUSTRIES

Emp>!oyment in durable goods manufacturing, transported[ion, anci mining dropped sharply in October
as a result of the steel and coal labor disputes and sseasona factors. Trade employment increased
sea; sonally. Most other industries showed little chang e.
MILL 10 MS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
9.0

MILLI ONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
8.0

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

DURABLE MANUFACTURING
I947X
8.5

'3r^^^^^^" <

7.5

7.5

^\

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T

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6.5

IS47

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6.0

7.0

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3.0

I

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10.5

TRADE

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION
2.5

/ t

10.0
•^^^^^^^^"^^SSg^
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2.0

1.5

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9.5

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1947

9.0

''

___

1948

~r^"'~
1947
1.0

0

8.5

~~
J

1

1
F

1
M

1
A

!

1

M

J

J

1
A

1
S

.

1

O

1
N

f

0
J

D

1
F

!
M

!
A

I
M

1
J

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

!
J

!
A

1
S

O

1

1
N

O

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers !]
Manufacturing
Period

Total

1939 monthly average- _ _ _
_
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average. _ _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average, _ _ _ _ _ _
1948: September _ _
October
November
_ _
December
1949: January
February
_
___
March
Aoril _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_
Mav

June
July 3
August
„
3
September
3
October

_ _ _

_
_

___

_ _
_

10, 078
17, 381
14, 461
15, 247
15, 286
15, 617
15,514
15, 368
15, 174
14, 782
14, 649
14, 475
14, 177
13, 877
13, 885
13, 757
14, 115
14, 307
13 984

Durable
goods

(2)

(22)
()
8,373

8,
8,
8,
8,
8,
8,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,

315
360
393
352
258
044
923
819
656
441
396
255
305
413
082

Contract
Nondur- construction
able goods
(2)
(22)
()
6, 874
6, 970
7, 257
7, 121
7, 016
6, 916
6, 738
6, 726
6, 656
6, 521
6, 430
6, 4S9
6, 502
6, 810
6, 894
6, 902

1, 150
1, 567
1, 661
.1, 982
2, 165
2, 369
2, 334
2, 287
2, 200
2, 016
1, 926
1, 947
2, 036
2, 137
2, 205
2, 277
2, 340
2, 342
2, 321

Trade
6, 705
7, 322
8, 815
9. 196
9, 491
9, 522
9, 654
9, 807
10, 273
9, 38S
9, 292
9, 310
9, 478
9, 342
9, 327
9, 220
0, 21 S
9, 412
9, 510

Finance
and
service
4, 610
5, 187
5, 994
6,427
6, 515
6, 574
6, 531
6, 503
6,481
6, 454
6, 447
6, 469
6, 525
6, 567
6, 603
6, 031
6, 619
6, 610
6, 567

Government Transportation and
(Federal,
public
State, local)
utilities
3, 987
6, 049
5, 607
5, 454
5,613
5, 668
5, 694
5, 685
5, 994
5, 764
5, 737
5, 761
5, 775
5, 813
5, 772
5, 738
5, 763
5, 893
5, 866

2, 912
3, 619
4, 023
4, 122
4, 151
4, 189
4, 188
4, 166
4, 158
4, 054
4, 024
3, 975
3,991
4, 021
4,030
4,007
3, 994
3, 964
3, 874

Mining
845
917
852
943
981
1,007
1,000
999
1,002
991
986
981
984
974
970
943
957
948
583

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary w r orkers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Not available.
3
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.




AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Hours of work averaged 39.8 in durable goods manufacturing and 39.5 in nondurables in October,
according to preliminary estimates. Both averages were above the levels of spring and summer.
HOUF*S PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
42

42

40

—x^l^^SA/vy
^^

38

36

34

34

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

1 1 I 1 1 1 i II

1 1

V

^

1 1 1 M

0

I960

1949

I 1 1 I 1 1

1 1 1 i 1 1 M

1947

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

1 1 1

i 1 1 i i 1 1 1 1 i i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 i ii

1948

1949

1950

RETAIL TRADE -GENERAL MERCHANDISE

42

42

40

40

38

38

*

k/-\

36

.J\f r-A/k^^
^v

-^*—'

36

^1

34

34

0

v^

38

36

0

\^rA

40

i ii ii 1 iiiii

i i i i i 1 i i t ii

1947

i 111i111 111

1948

1949

i i i l i 1 i i i iI
I960

0.

rf;,,,i

i i i i i 1 it i ii i tti i 1 i i i ii i i i i i 1 i i i ii

1947

1948

1949

1950

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Hours per week, selected industries 1 ]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948' September
October
November
December
1949" January
February
_
March
April




Mav

June
Julv 3
August September
October*5
1
2
3

Total
_

__ _

__

_ _ _ _ _ _

__ _
3

_

_ __

For production and related workers.
Not available.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.

37. 7
44. 9
40.4
40.4
40. 1
39.8
40.0
39.8
40. 1
39. 5
39.4
39. 1
38.4
38. 6
38.8
38.8
39. 1
39.6
39. 7

Durable
goods
(2)
(22)
()
40. 6
40. 5
40. 0
40. 7
40. 4
40. 7
40. 1
39. 9
39. 5
39.0
39.0
39. 2
38.8
39.2
39.7
39. 8

Retail trade,
Building
me
Nondurable construction general
chandise
goods
(22)
(2)
()

40. 1
39. 6
39. 6
39. 1
39. 2
39. 3
38. 7
38. 8
38. 6
37. 6
38. 1
38. 5
38.7
38. 9
39. 5
39. 5

(22)
(2)
(2)
()

(2)
(22)
()

(2)

(2)

37.3
37.6
37. 3
36.4
37.8
37.0
36.5
36. 1
36.4
37. 2
37. 1
37. 1
37.3
36.4

36. 3
36.6
36.3
36. 0
35.8
37. 5
36. 5
36. 3
36. 1
36. 6
36.3
36.8
37. 2
37.2
36. 4

WORK STOPPAGES
Because of steel and coal work stoppages, time lost from labor disputes jumped in October to the
highest level since February 1946.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I 5

15

1947

1949

1948

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Or ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

Man-days idle during
period
Period

Monthly
average
(thousands)

1939
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1948: September
October
November
December
1949: January l l . __
February
March *
April »
May *
June 1
July i._ 1
August
1
September
October 1
1

Preliminary estimate.

1,484
1,921
349
1, 125
727
3,169
9,667
2,883
2,842
2, 540
2, 060
1,910
713
800
650
3,600
1,800
3,200
4,600
2,100
2,000
6,350
19, 000


Source: Department of Labor.


Workers involved in
stoppages

Beginning
Percent of
in
estimated
period
working time (thousands)
0. 28
. 32
.05
. 15
.09
. 47
1.43
. 41
.37
.33
. 27
. 26
.09
. 11
. 10
.46
.25
.45
. 61
.31
. 26
. 88
2. 70

1,171
2,363
840
1,981
2, 116
3,467
4, 600
2, 170
1,960
158
110
111
40
70
80
500
175
250
575
110
150
510
600

In effect
during
month
(thousands)

267
194
189
93
110
120
540
225
320
660
225
250
610
1,000

Number of stoppages
Beginning
in
period
2, 613
4,288
2, 968
3,752
4, 956
4,750
4,985
3,693
3,419
299
256
216
144
225
225
275
400
450
375
300
375
275
250

In effect
during
month

553
468
388
283
400
350
400
500
600
550
525
550
475
425

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
JUi

Industrial production dropped about 5 percent in October as a result of steel and coal labor disputes.
Following resumption of these activities,, production increased about 3 percent in November. During
both of ttiese months the nondurable rate was the highest since the peak a year ago.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total index

250 -

250

200

200

150

150

100

50

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E u E R A L RESERVE S Y S T E M

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total =100

Indexes, 1935-39=100
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
goods ble goods

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 month! v average
1946 monthlv average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948- October
November
December
1949: Januarv
_ __
February. _ _
March
AprilMav

June
_
July
August.
September
October i _
November '_..
1

10

_ _
_ .__

Preliminary estimate.

100
239
203
170
187
192
195
195
192
191
189
184
179
174
169
161
170
174
i (m
17!

D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[3935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

N

100
258
214
177
194
198
202
201
199
198
196
193
184
179
176
168
177
184
175
178

100
3GO
274
192
220
225
231
229
231
227
225
223
212
201
104
185
192
199
174
181


Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syst-ern.


100
176
166
165
172
177
179
178
173
175
173
168
162
101
161
154
165
172
1 76
176

100
132
137
134
149
155
158
161
156
149
149
136
148
145
133
123
129
119
114
1 35

Manufactures
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
87
87
87
86
85
84
81
76
74
70
73
75
67
69

Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
47
83
78
77
81
83
84
83
81
82
81
79
76
75
75
72
77
81
82
82

15
20
21
21
23
24
24
25
24
23
23
21
23
22
20
19
20
18
17
20

WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
A f t e r being at almost .a standstill in October and early November because of labor disputes, steel
and bituminous coal output increased sharply during the last of November. Electric power production
moved upward. The number of cars and trucks being assembled dropped further, chiefly because of
model changeovers.
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS
7.0

MILLIONS OF TONS

3

ELECTRIC POWER

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
3.0

BITUMINOUS COAL

F

M

A

M

J

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

Steel
(thousands of
net tons)

Period

Weekly average
1947
1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Electric power, Bituminous
coal
by utilities
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) *

Cars and
trucks
(number)

1, 637
1 700

4, 821
5, 300

2,058
1, 948

90, 860
100, 670

27
Dec. 4
11

], 783
1, 792
1, 785
], 78S
1, 804
1, 803

5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,

564
571
627
349
646
705

2,038
2, 190
2,078
2, 098
1,969
2,042

112,791
110,495
114, 656
83, 284
119,037
117,897

1949: Nov. 5
12

162
387

5,435
5, 435
5, 644
5, 537

1, 183
2, 358
2, 387

Week ended:
1948: Nov. 6
13

20

19

26

Dec. 3
10

__

_ ___ ___

_

1, 058
1, 442
1, 617
2
1 690

447

112,
111,
111,
71,
2
66,

838
727
779
860
559

1
2

Daily average for week.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.



11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Iron and steel production decreased sharply in October to the average 1935-39 level; weekly data
for November indicate substantial recovery. Nonferrous metals dropped slightly after considerable
gains in September. Output of lumber was at its peak for the year and machinery output continued
to increase.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

LUMBER AND

PRODUCTS

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

100 L I ' '
40

42 44- 46

48

40

42 44 46 48

MACHINERY

1! 1 1

40 42 44 46 48

I I M

I I I I I I I I I 1 I

I'347

1948

I I I I I I I I I ( I

1949

40 42

44 46

48

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period

Iron and
steel

Machinery

Nonferrous
metals and
products

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average

100
208
183
150
195
208

100
129
109
131
143
145

100
443
343
240
276
277

100
267
204
157
187
193

1948: September __.
October
November _ _
December

214
221
224
223

143
147
145
143

273
277
276
277

192
192
187
184

1949: Januarv
February
March
_
April.
May_
June__
__.
July ..
August- _ _ _
September
October ' . _ _

228
232
233
219
204
177
156
178
179
101

129
123
129
126
126
123
115
126
133
137

268
262
252
240
232
225
217
215
224
227

183
185
183
167
145
133
127
141
157
152

1

_ __

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




12

Lumber and
products

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Activity in textile industries in October was at its highest point since November 1948. Production
of chemicals showed some further improvement; manufactured foods continued at peak levels; petroleum
and coal products remained unchanged.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

300

300
MONTHLY AVERAGE

200

100

0

J
1

1

40

"
i

i

42

I

I

| |

|

44

46

48

~^~

n^-vy
I 1 11 1 1 I 1 1 ! 1

1947

1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 II 1 1

1948

200

100

0

A/
v

y

i i i i I I i i i
40

1949

42

44

46

^^

i

48

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

^^•A/"

1 1 1 11111 111

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

I! 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 !

1948

1949

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

400

400

MONTHLY A
AVERAGE j\

S£

300

S

300

•*

•

•V-^

200

200

100

r^«-

/

^—

100

0

40 42

44

46 48

1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 I 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1

1948

1949

1947

O

!

i

40

f

1

42

1 1 !

44

1 1

46

48

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1

11 1 11 11 1111

1947

i'i 1 1 t i I ! 1 1 1

1948

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1949

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1935-39—100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products

Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthlv average _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
October.
November
December __
1949: January
FebruarvMarch
April
May

June
July
August
September
October 1 .

_

_
_

_ _
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ __

Petroleum
and coal
products

Manufactured food
products

Chemical
products

100
153
146
162
163
169

100
185
235
173
193
218

100
145
151
150
157
159

100
384
284
236
251
254

168
167
164
156

207
217
227
231

163
161
159
158

257
255
257
257

160
157
142
129
123
126
120
140
154
164

228
221
213
209
207
202
198
204
206
206

160
162
162
162
162
165
161
164
166
166

257
250
245
237
234
231
226
228
236
239

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized99186—49
for FRASER3


13

NEW CONSTRUCTION
New construction declined seasonally in November, with residential activity showing
particular strength.
MILLIONS

OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000

2,000

1,500

1,500

i\i 1
prrr-r

1,000

!

\
m

1939

|

Pi

1
I

%
i
I ii
4

J

1942 1944 1946 1947 1948

*INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
SOURCES:

1,000

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

A

F

S

0

N

CONSTRUCTION

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction

Period

1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
ApriL-_ _
May .
June..July
August _
_
SeptemberOctober 2
November


14


1
2

_ _ -

„
_ _ _ _
_..

526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1,565
1,901
1, 814
1,646
1,447
1,293
1, 172
1,267
1,370
1,576
1,735
1,833
1,903
1,922
1, 886
1, 726

Total
private
317
251
152
688
932
1,214
1,427
1,355
1,256
1, 129
1,002
905
951
989
1, 108
1,229
1, 301
1, 343
1,368
1,354
1, 279

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

Residential
(nonfarm)
176
110
45
265
438
602
707
670
615
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
650
675
710
725
700

Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
720
685
641
582
527
505
531
544
578
629
651
668
658
629
579

Federal,
State, and
local *

208
867
193
184
262
351
474
459
390
318
291
267
316
381
468
506
532
560
554
532
447

D

NEW HOUSING STARTS
Housing starts continued at very high levels in October. This year appears certain to establish a record.

THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125

J

THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125

F

M

A

M

J

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.




New nonfarm units started

Month
1947

January
February
March- _
April
1VJ.O,J
Mav

_-

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

_

_
_
_

_

- --

_

_ _
_ _ _
_

- - -

Total
Monthly average

1948

39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800

53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, «00
63, 600
52, 900

849, 000

931, 300

70, 750

77, 600

1949
50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
88, 300
95, 400
95, 500
96, 100
1
98, 000
i 100, 000
i 100, 000

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.

15

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT

Nonagriculturol business firms reported in a recent SEC-Commerce survey expected expenditures of
$17.9 billion on new plant and equipment for 1949. Actual expenditures for 1st half of this year
were I percent above 1st half of 1948 but estimate for 2nd half was about 14 percent under actual
expenditures for the corresponding period last year.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25
ANNUAL RATES*

ANN UAL TOTALS

S-PLANNED-**

-ACTUAL-

15

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
p£UTlLITIES|:-x-:-:;v>l

1939

1941

* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

1945
VARIATION.

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period

Total i

Manufacturing

Mining

Transportation
Railroad

1939
1941
1945
1947
1948 3
1949
1947: Third quarter. _ _
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 3 3 _ _ _
Fourth quarter
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Commercial and miscellaneous
3

5,200
8, 190
6,630
16, 180
19, 230
17, 920
16, 560
19, 760
16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
21, 640
17, 840
18, 640
18, 200
17, 000

1,930
3,400
3,210
7,460
8,340
7, 120
7,480
9, 160
7, 200
8, 560
8,360
9,280
7, 400
7,520
7,080
6,480

380
680
440
690
800
740
720
840
720
800
800
880
760
760
720
680

280
560
550
910
1,320
1,360
920
1,200
1,080
1, 240
1,320
1, 640
1, 440
1, 520
1,360
1, 120

Other
280
340
320
800
700
540
800
760
720
760
680
680
520
560
560
520

Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2
480
710
630
1,900
2, 680
3, 100
2,000
2,480
2,000
2, 560
2,760
3,400
2, 720
3, 120
3, 240
3,320

1, 850
2,490
1, 480
4,430
5, 390
5,080
4, 640
5, 360
4,960
5,360
5, 440
5, 760
5,040
5, 160
5, 200
4, 960

composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
Estimates for third quarter are based on preliminary estimates of business in July; fourth quarter figures are based on anticipated
capital expenditures.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and
other data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).



NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
After reaching the postwar peak (quarterly rate) during the 2nd quarter of this year, corporate issues fell
substantially in the 3rd quarter, reflecting the usual seasonal movement.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

3.0

3.0

1939

1943

1946

1947

1948

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Total

1939 quarterly average
1943 auarterlv average
1945 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average
1947 quarterly average
1948 quarterly average

_

-

1947* Third quarter
Fourth quarter

_

1948' First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949* First quarter
Second quarter—
Third quarter 2

_ _ _

__ _
_

_

_

_

_

_

Plant and
equipment

Working
capital

Retirement
of debt and
stock l

529
287
1,475
1,689
1,617
1,748

81
77
270
820
1, 148
1,491

43
35
159
529
852
1,060

39
42
111
291
296
431

448
210
1,206
869
469
257

1,374
2,311

884
2,000

692
1, 654

192
347

490
310

1,769
1,817
1, 352
2,054

1, 511
1,493
1,087
1,874

918
1, 091
774
1,459

593
402
314
415

260
325
265
180

1,056
2,311
807

850
1,968
688

699
1,615
599

152
353
89

206
343
119

1
2

Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.


17

INVENTORIES AND SALES
in October there was only a slight further net liquidation of inventories by manufacturers, while wholesalers
and department stores continued to add to stocks. Sales dropped sharply in both manufacturing and trade.

BILL ONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE

RETAIL
20

20
SE

!NVE^ T<DRIES

>•"

1 0

I 0
H ....^MM

SA

•• •<****<?

t

0

I

4C

1

1

42

!

1 !

44

1 1

46

s

'

./• "'"^s

*»**»-^^,

^^K^^^^

\

.**
.* s

INVE NT ORIES

L

L

1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I

48

1947

1 1 1 II

1948

11 1 i 1i

0

1

|

40

1949

1

!!

42

1 1
44

|

1

46

7
1 1 M

48

1 I 1 1 I 1 1

1 l 1 I I 1 1 1 i I 1

l l l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

1949

1947

PERCE

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

DEPARTMENT STORES

MANUFACTURERS
40

400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
INVE \I7 ORIES

V

-U

30

/

*****

Y/

„•*

/ s^r*

^^^^^\

L ES

1 00

l i i i ij i i i
40

42

44

1 M II

46 48

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT

1 1 I 1 11

1947

OF COMMERCE

! 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1I

! 11 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1

1948

AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS

Inventories l |

0

1949

/J
1 1 1 i 1 1 1 M

i I I 1 I ] 1 LJ

40

42

44

46

48

May

Ju ne _
_
July
August
September
October 5
1
2
3
4
6

_ _ _ _ _ • _

__

3, 175
4, 182
3,684
4,638
6, 665
8, 653
9,511
9,581
9,730
9,714
9,511
9,464
9,479
9,293
9, 330
9, 153
9,002
9,091
9,061
9, 186
9, 220

1 1

! J1I 1

1947

Retail

Sales 2

Inventories l

Manufacturers
Sales

2, 505
3, 620
4,273
4,983
6,601
7, 754
8,355
8,489
8,083
8,236
8, 158
7,723
7, 680
7,890
7,422
7,498
7,718
7, 158
7,703
7,572
7, 166

5,532
7, 630
7,361
7,543
11, 226
13, 221
14, 969
14, 877
14, 937
15, 027
14, 969
14, 659
14, 479
14, 700
14, 458
14, 139
14, 182
13, 862
13, 932
14, 355
14, 478

2

Inventories l

3, 504
4,624
5, 277
6,315
8, 358
9,909
10, 837
10, 961
10, 899
10, 763
10, 987
10, 592
10, 686
10, 705
10, 790
10, 738
10, 663
10, 521
10, 679
10, 824
10, 647

Sales 2

1949

Department stores
Inventories

3

Sales 3

1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted

4

11,465
16, 960
20, 098
18, 390
24, 818
29, 817
34, 066
33, 380
33, 528
33, 810
34, 066
34, 409
34, 408
34, 223
34, 018
33, 565
33, 250
32, 367
31, 656
31, 100
30, 900

5,099
8, 168
12, 822
12, 873
12, 841
17, 076
19, 028
19, 902
18, 978
19, 648
19, 065
17, 880
18, 175
18, 451
17, 643
17, 741
17, 990
17, 114
18, 689
18, 900
16, 700

Book value, end of period.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with data published prior to October 1949.
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18for FRASER
Digitized


i j 11 1 11 i 11

I 1 1 I 1

1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

1939
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ __ _
1941
1943
_ _ __
1945
1946
_
1947
--.
1948
_
1948* September
October
November
_ _
__ __
December
1949' January
____
February
March
_
_ _ _
April. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
__

•"

OF THE FE DERAL RES ERVE SYSTEM

Wholesale
Period

^NA
x/

•«*..

jf

~>A

/

0

•••••.^

//INVEfv TC)RIES

200

^~~S^

j^-—\ ^
y&\

/

20

1 0

/s/\L :sx

300

102
131
155
166
213
255
291
291
290
295
288
278
276
283
280
273
265
256
253
264
270

106
133
168
207
264
286
302
309
309
290
303
295
281
277
294
292
285
280
283
289
275

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
In October the merchandise export surplus fell sharply. Imports of goods continued to recover for the third
successive month, reaching the highest level since March, while exports fell to the lowest point since the
maritime strike a year ago.
MILLIONS OF DOLLAR:
1,600

M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
1600

-

1400

1200

- 1000

800

600

400

- 200

J F M A M

1946

1936-38

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

1^======

[Millions of dollars]
Period

Exports *

Imports2

Excess of
exports

1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average. _ _ 1948 monthly average

247
1, 080
877
849
1, 278
1, 051

207
282
346
410
478
594

40
798
531
439
801
457

1948: September
October
November
December

926
1,021
820
1, 285

560
600
554
720

366
421
266
565

1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October

1, 094
1, 032
1, 159
1,148
1,077
1, 104
897
881
904
849

590
568
632
534
539
527
456
491
530
559

504
464
527
614
538
578
441
390
374
290

1
2

Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.




19

PURCHASING POWER
National income continued to decline in 3rd quarter. Compensation of employees increased very slightly,
while farm income (part of proprietors 1 and rental) showed significant drop.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

CORPORATE PROFITS AND - -•::::::::::::::::>:><
:;INVENTORY VALUATION!:;:;:;:;:;:;::::::::::::::::
:;:;:::;:: ADJUSTMENT:;: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

1950
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted).

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]

Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
L948

72.5
183. 8
179. 6
201. 7
226. 2

_
.

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment

Compensation of
employees

Proprietors'
and rental
income

Net interest

47.8
121.2
117.0
127. 6
140.3

14. 7
35. 5
41. 3
45. 1
49.5

4. 2
3. 1
3. 0
3.4
3. 8

Total

Profits
before
taxes

5.8
24.0
18.3
25. 6
32. 6

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

6. 5
24. 3
23. 6
31. 6
34. 8

-0. 7

33.0
35. 0
36. 6
34. 5

-4.5
-2.0
-3. 3
+ 1.2

29. 4
26.4
26. 0

+ 2. 3
4-4.5
+ 3.5

o

-5! 3
-6.0
-2. 2

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter __
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter ]
1
2

._
_ _ ._

2

215. 1
224. 9
230.4
234. 3

135. 1
137. 7
143. 3
144. 9

48.0
50.4
49. 9
49.7

3. 6
3. 7
3. 9
4. 1

226. 3
223. 4
220. 5

142.5
141.8
142. 2

47.8
46.5
44. 5

4.2
4. 3
4. 3

Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
Digitized
20 for FRASER


28. 5
33. 0
33.3
35.7

2

31.8
30. 9
29. 5

2

CORPORATE PROFITS
According to preliminary estimates for the 3rd quarter, corporate profits were slightly below the 2nd
quarter rate. When allowance is mode for inventory valuation adjustment, the decline was more substantial.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4O

I960
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS N O T E D )

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

1929
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948

9.8
6.5
24. 3
23. 6
31. 6
34. 8

_.
. .-_

Corporate
tax
liability

1.4
1.5
13. 5
9. 6
12. 5
13. 6

Corporate profits after taxes
Total

8.4
5.0
10. 8
13. 9
19. 1
21. 2

Dividend
payments

5.8
3.8
4. 7
5. 8
7.0
7. 9

Undistributed
profits

2.6
1. 2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 1
13. 2

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 2

_ __
l

33.0
35. 0
36. 6
34. 5

12. 8
13. 7
14. 4
13. 6

20.2
21. 3
22. 2
20.9

7.6
7. 7
7.9
8.3

12. 6
13. 6
14. 3
12. 6

29. 4
26. 4
26. 0

11. 5
10.6
10.4

17. 9
15. 8
15. 6

8.4
8.4
8.4

9.5
7.4
7.2

1
2

Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




See p. 20 for profits before

21

PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income dropped sharply in October, largely because work stoppages affected wage and
salary income adversely. Transfer payments fell because of the termination of the life insurance
dividend for World War I veterans.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

!

BILLIONS D O L L A R S

ANNUAL TOTALS

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY

250

ADJUSTED

TOTAL

*6222£*%Z^^
w;•:•>;'•:-;KRQPR'ET'ORS^ "AND RENTAL INCOME :-: .';>->>x'> >":';>vx

^
^T

,.\..-.,.-...-.,-,,B,.-,.f...-,^WyVV>,VV>'>V.,'^,'.l,-. .••.'«-,.',.-<V.-,

\'^>;;

.V.*«V.%VvV»^ A'vV < rV//v"AVVVV.V'>V-<Vy''-i

•^^:v;<<-XvX'^':v>:<>;vX<<v^:'>>^;<x:'
>;<:*y<:#>#^

S¥:
<^<;

!jilIl!JJiIiill|li.SAU\R!ES,.WAGES, ETCJil|illipipli;liPl;:lil

1939

1944

1947

1948

J__l
1949

J A S O N D

J

1947

SOURCE:

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

1948

M

A

M

J

J A S O T ^

1949

D

J

F M A M J

1950

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

CiL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948

72. 6
165. 9
176.9
193. 5
211. 9

.

Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends
and rental and personal
and other
labor income
income
interest
45.7
116. 2
111.0
122. 0
135. 1

14. 7
35. 5
41. 2
45. 1
49. 5

9. 2
10. 6
13. 2
14, 8
16. 2

Transfer
payments
3. 0
3.6
11.4
11.7
11. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
Mav

June
July
August _
September
October!
1

__

216. 3
216. 3
216.6
217.0
215. 7
212. 9
212. 4
212. 5
213. 1
211. 9
209. 7
211. 4
210. 5
208.4

139. 7
140. 1
139. 5
139. 1
138. 6
137. 1
135. 6
136. 8
137. 1
136. 1
136. 3
136.6
137. 0
135. 3

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




22

49.4
49. 0
49. 8
50. 3
49. 0
47.2
47. 3
46. 3
46. 7
46. 5
44.2
45. 2
43. 8
43. 9

16. 5
16. 8
16. 9
16. 9
17.0
17. 1
17. 1
17. 2
17.3
17.2
17. 1
17. 3
17. 4
17. 5

10. 7
10. 4
10.4
10. 7
11. 1
11. 5
12.4
12.2
12.0
12. 1
12. 1
12. 3
1 2. 3
11. 7

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND
Disposable income declined about $2 billion (annual rate) in the 3rd quarter. A considerable part of the
decline was concentrated in farm income. Expenditures dropped less than $'/2 biliion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
"I
250

I 00

I960
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income *

Period

1939
1940
1941 .
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
_.
1947
1948

__

__

_ _

70. 2
75. 7
92.0
116.2
131.6
147.0
151. 1
158. 1
172.0
190.8

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67.5
72. 1
82. 3
90.8
101. 6
111. 6
123. 1
147.8
166. 9
178.8

2. 7
3. 7
9. 8
25. 4
30.0
35. 4
28.0
10. 3
5. 1
12. 0

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
__
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter __
Third quarter 2

_

181.9
189.6
195. 2
196.2
194.9
193. 8
191. 9

175. 2
178. 7
180.3
180. 9
178. 6
178. 9
178. 5

6. 7
10. 8
15. 0
15. 3
16.3
14. 8
13. 3

1
2

Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



23

PER CAPITA INCOME
Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, continued near peak levels in
3rd quarter.
DOLLARS
1,600

DOLLARS

1,600

ANNUAL R A T E S , SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D

1948 DOLLARS

f*

\

S*

^——5
I.EOO

1,200

CURRENT DOLLARS

I
1939

1940

1941

1942

I
1943

I
1944

I
1945

J
1946

I
1947

J
1948

1949

3

4

1947

I

2

I

2

3

1948

Per capita disposable
personal
income 1
Current
1948 dollars 3
dollars
$536
$923
574
981
1, 125
691
1,262
867
1,314
970
1,065
1,405
1,082
1,389
1,342
1, 119
1,282
1, 194
1,302
1,302

1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948

Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted

1
2
3

_»

_

__
_

_

_

_ _

2

1950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

_

I

1949

CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948=100
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R , (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter4
Third Quarter _

I

3

_

1,248
1,296
1,328
1,328
1,314
1,301
1,283

1,273
1, 301
1,305
1,319
1, 325
1,314
1,300

Consumers'
price index 1
1948 = 100
58. 1
58.5
61.4
68. 7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93. 1
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation

98.0
99.6
101.8
100.7
99.2
99.0
98. 7

Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted
index will be found on page 2.
4
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
Digitized
24 for FRASER


AVERAGE HOURLY EAR[NIN'GS

- SELECTED INDUSTRIES

IAverage hourly earnings in manufacturing dropped mo re than a cent to $1.39 in October. Most of the drop
(occurred in durable goods where several hundred thou sand hie|her-paid workers were removed from the pay\-oils as a result of the steel strike.
OOLLAfRS

PER HOUR

DOLL* RS PER HOUR

1.60

1.50

DURABLE

MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
1.40

1.50

DOLLARS* ^-y»^ZZs~~*^\

1948

1948
1.30

1.40

1.30

/
1

/^\
\
CURRENT

/~-'""x~;,^--

1.20

S*^

0

CURRi NT DOLLARS

MO

~MII|

,

1947

1 1 1 1 ! I I 1 1 1 1

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1949

I95O

1948

0

1 1 I 1 1 1J 1 1

1

II

i i l 1 L LI J J 1

1947

2.1 0

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1

1948

1 ] 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 |

I95O

1949

1.20

RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
I.I 0

2.00

F

xx-~

1.90

I.OO

1948 DOLLARS*/

J

** V**'v
/
^« CURRENT

1.80

1946

.90

jT
.80

I 1 11 1 i 1 1 I 1 !

11 i 1 1 1 I 11 1 L

1947

1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 L 1

1948

1949

1 i 1 I i 1 I 1 1 I 1 1
1950

DOLLARS*

r^

"

^^/

DOLLARS

1.70

U

^

DOLLARS

1.20

1

<c^£x

DOLLARS*

~

•""""^ ^'CURRENT DOLLARS

! i i i || 1 i i i i i

i i i i i ! i i ij i

1 11 1111 1111

1947

1948

1949

1 I 1 1 1 I1 1 1 1 L
1950

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Selected industries l]
All manufacturing

Durable goods manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building construction

General merchandise
retail trade

Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
October
November
December
1949: January
February.
March
April
__
May
June
July 4
August
-_
4
September
__ _
4
October
1
2
3
4

-_
_
_

$0. 633
. 961
1.084
1. 237
1. 350
1.386
1. 390
1.397
1. 400
1. 405
1.401
1.400
1.401
1.401
1.406
1. 408
1.398
1. 407
1.392

1948
dollars 2
$1. 090
1. 302
1.300
1. 329
1. 350
1. 360
1. 371
1.389
1. 399
1.408
1.419
1.414
1.414
1. 418
1.419
1.431
1.418
1. 420
1.415

Current
dollars

(3)
(33)
()
$1. 292
1.410
1.457
1.462
1.463
1.466
1.467
1.466
1. 464
1.467
1.467
1.476
1.477
1.472
1. 481
1.460

1948
dollars 2
(33)
()
(3)
$1. 388
1.410
1.430
1.442
1.454
1.465
1.470
1.485
1.480
1.480
1.485
1.489
1. 501
1.493
1. 494
1.484

Production and related workers.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100.
Not available.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.




Current
dollars

(33)
(3)
()
$1. 171
1.278
1.304
1. 302
1.317
1. 319
1.327
1.323
1. 323
1.321
1. 323
1. 325
1.332
1. 319
1. 328
1. 323

1948
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
()
$1. 258
1. 278
1. 280
1. 284
1.309
1.318
1.330
1. 340
1. 336
1. 333
1. 339
1. 337
1.354
1. 338
1.340
1. 345

Current
dollars

(33)
(3)
()
(3)
$1. 848
1.895
1.892
1. 906
1. 915
1.918
1.930
1. 933
1. 934
1.930
1. 924
1. 922
1.932
1.938
(3)

1948
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
()
(3)
$1. 848
1.360
1.866
1.895
1.913
1.922
1.955
1. 953
1. 952
1. 953
1. 941
1. 953
1.959
1.956
(3)

Current
dollars

(3)
(33)
()
$0. 853
. 910
.923
. 922
.918
. 919
. 943
.937
. 933
. 934
. 960
.968
. 964
. 961
.968
(3)

1948
dollars

2

(33)
(3)
()
$0. 916
.910
.906
.909
.913
. 918
. 945
.949
. 942
.942
.972
.977
.980
.975
.977
3
()

See note 3 to table on page 24.

25

AVERAGE WEEKLY EAFiNIN[GS
/Average
DOLL ftRS

PER

weekly earnings dropped slightly in both du rable an d nondurable manufacturing in October.
DOLL ARS

WEEK

65

PER

WEEK

60

DURABLE

NONDURABLE

MANUFACTURING

*

60

1948

DOLLARS

yx^

^^

1948 DOLLARS*
50

y^C

RRENT

45

45

40
i i i I . 1 . I . I .

1947

•*'***S*

•"••»"**

^vmrn^S^^^**** *

r^^1

DOLLARS

50

LL-.i...^

MANUFACTURING

55

55

0

- SELECTED INDUSTRIES

1948

..nil.....

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1 1 1

n

*****r^* CURRENT DOLLARS

I ( I I i 1i i i i i

1950

1949

i I I M I M 1 11

1947

, i,,,i

1948

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , i ,7

1949

1950

45

80

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

RETAIL TRADE - GENERAL

MERCHANDISE

40

75

s^t\•*&

*r

70

1948

1948

DOLLARS*

65

^CURRENT

30

-^/^F^^

C OLLAR3

^^ CURRENT DOLLARS

60

25

0 7M , , 1 , , , M
1947

|iiiit
1948

. , . , i 1i , , . ,

, , ,.

1949

. 1 . , ..7

DEPARTMENT

0 7. i ... 1

1 M 1 I ! 1 M 1

1947

1950

* * HOT AVAILABLE

946 '100

SOURCE :

^^s

35

DOLLAF
%

, .1 1 ,i.1 1 .,

1948

1949

. 1 1 1 1 1 . . i ,7
1950

PRIOR TO JANUARY I5<!8

COUNCIL

OF LABOR

or

ECONOMIC

ADVISORS

[Selected industries l]
All manufacturing

Durable goods manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building construction

General merchandise
retail trade

Period
Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

$41. 07
$23. 86
(33)
(33)
(33)
(3)
(33)
43. 14
58.46
(3)
(3)
(3)
(33)
(3)
43. 74
52.45
(3)
()
()
()
()
$52.
46
$50.
44
$56. 35
$46. 96
49. 97
53. 67
()
$68. 85
50. 61
54. 14
54. 14
57. 11
57. 11
50. 61
_
71. 29
54. 13
57. 19
51. 64
50. 68
55. 16
58. 28
70. 59
50. 21
58. 68
50. 91
54. 83
59. 50
55. 60
69. 39
51. 32
58. 76
55. 60
55. 27
59. 11
51. 63
72. 33
51. 84
51. 79
56. 08
56. 14
59. 61
59. 67
70. 88
51. 35
51. 45
55. 50
55. 61
58. 83
58. 95
70. 53
52.01
59. 26
55. 93
58. 49
55. 20
51. 33
69. 83
54. 74
55. 29
58.41
51. 07
51. 59
57. 83
70. 33
50. 12
49. 67
53. 80
54. 29
57. 21
57. 73
May
51. 02
71. 81
50.41
54. 74
54. 08
57. 21
57. 90
June
51.01
51. 47
71. 44
54. 55
55. 05
57. 86
58. 39
July 4
52.35
58.24
55. 52
51. 51
71. 28
57.31
54.63
52.04
August
_ __
71. 96
58.52
54. 66
55.44
57. 70
51. 31
4
September
70.62
52.
94
55.72
58.80
59.
33
52.46
56.23
October 4
_ _
59. 05
52. 26
55. 26
56. 16
53. 11
58. 11
(3)
1
For
production
and
related
workers.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note^3 to table on page 24.
*4 Not available.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.

1939 monthly average _ _
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average __
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average. _
1948: September
October
November
December
1949: January
February. _
March
April




26

1948
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
(3)
()
$68. 85
69. 96
69. 62
68. 98
72. 26
71. 02
71.46
70. 54
70. 97
72. 68
72. 09
72. 44
72. 98
71. 26
(3)

Current
dollars
(33)
()
(3)
$30. 96
33. 31
33. 50
33. 19
32. 86
34. 46
34. 42
34.01
33. 68
34. 18
34. 85
35. 62
35.86
35. 75
35. 24
(3)

1948 i
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
()
$33. 25
33. 31
32. 88
32. 73
32. 66
34.43
34.49
34. 46
34.02
34. 49
35. 27
35. 94
36.44
36. 26
35. 56
(3)

FARM INCOME
Farm Income increased in October as major crops moved to market, and the fall run of hogs began.
Both in current dollars and in purchasing power, however, income fell increasingly below last year's level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

4

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) 1

Period

1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthlv average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
_ _
October
November
__
December
1949: January
February
_
March
April
May
June _ _
__
July
August ^ 4
September
October 4
1
2
z
4

724
981

_- _ _
__

_ -

_

___
_ _ _ _

_
_

_
_

-_

__

___

_
_

__
__ __

_

_
_

_ _ __
_

__ _ _

1, 340
1, 678
1, 765
1, 857
2, 110
2, 542
2, 609
3, 132
3, 714
3, 314
2, 740
2, 383
1, 783
1, 973
1, 850
1, 944
2,053
2, 177
2,417
2, 608
3,051

Prices paid by
farmers (incl, Farm income
(millions of
interest and
1948 dollars) 3
taxes) 1948=
2
100

49. 8
53 0
60. 2
65. 1
67. 9
69. 1
77. 5
92. 8
100. 0
100. 4
100. 0
99. 2
99. 6
99. 6
98. 4
98. 8
98 8
98. 4
98.4
98.0
97. 7
97. 2
96. 4

1,454
1, 851
2, 226
2, 578
2, 599
2, 687
2,723
2, 739
2, 609
3, 120
3, 714
3,341
2,751
2,393
1,812
1, 997
1, 872
1, 976
2,086
2,221
2,474
2, 683
3, 165

Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
Preliminary estimates,
Source: Department of Agriculture.




27

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Heavy purchases of automobiles and other durables plus an increase in service expenditures almost completely
offset the drop in expenditures for nondurables in 3rd quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS, OF DOLLARS

200

200

ANNUAL TOTALS

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

100

1939

1944

1947

1948

1949

IS47
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods

Total

1939
1944
1946_
1947
1948. _

67.5
111. 6
147. 8
166. 9
178.8

35.3
67. 1
86.8
96. 2
102! 2

Durable
goods
6. 7
7. 1
16. 5
22.0
23. 5

Services
25. 5
37.4
44. 5
48. 8
53. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted

1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter L

_ __

1

175. 2
178. 7
180. 3
180.9

101. 2
102. 4
101. 8
103.3

22. 7
23. 8
24. 8
22. 9

51.3
52. 5
53. 7
54. 8

178.6
178.9
178. 5

100. 1
99.3
96. 5

23. 1
23.8
25.8

55.4
55.9
56.2

Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




28

CONSUMER CREDIT
During October, instalment, credit accounted for the major portion of the $388 million expansion
in consumer credit. This rise was larger than the rise for the corresponding period of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

20

1939

1943

1946

1947

END OF YEAR

1947

1948

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF T.HE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948

_ _

_ _
___

1948: September
October „
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May__
June _
July
August
September
October 2

__

__
_

2

_ _

__ _
_ __

Instalment credit
Total

Automobile
sale
credit

Other sale
credit and
loans

Charge
accounts

Other
consumer
credit *

7, 969
5, 378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319

4,424
2,001
4,000
6, 434
8,600

1,267
175
544
1, 151
1,961

3, 157
1,826
3,456
5,283
6,639

1,544
1,498
3,054
3,612
3,854

2,. 001
1,879
3, 137
3,627
3,865

15,
15,
15,
16,

8,
8,
8,
8,

190
233
322
600

1,858
1,889
1,922
1,961

6,332
6,344
6,400
6,639

3,227
3,457
3,557
3,854

3,814
3, 828
3,860
3,865

8,424
8, 339
8,429
8, 630
8, 888
9, 123
9, 335
9, 622
9.893
10, 1.71

1,965
1,996
2, 105
2, 241
2, 386
2, 499
2, 610
2, 761
2, 876
3, 002

6, 459
6, 343
6,324
6,389
6,502
6,624
6,725
6, 861
7,017
7, 169

3,457
3, 169
3, 121
3,232
3, 235
3,274
3, 123
3, 064
3, 130
3, 192

3,867
3,817
3, 785
3, 733
3, 720
3, 727
3, 740
3, 767
3, 776
3, 824

231
518
739
319

15, 748
15, 325
15, 335
15, 595
15, 843
16, 124
16, 198
16,453
16, 799
17, 187

1
2

Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




29

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
billion,

In October, commercial banks, increased their holdings of Government securities by nearly
while their loans and private investments remained relatively stable.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

125

125

100

100
i< INVEST ME' N'T

i!i!i!i!i!i!i;i!:!i!i!iiiii!K-' S . G O V E R N M ENT

'""IN"'""
SECUFCITIES;

_:' :":'•:

75

75

.-:-:•:•:•: ,:.:,:, ',<•'. •'.•'.-_".:_'.<<<<

50

50

25,

25

1929

J

1939 1945

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

1947

END OF YEAR

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

IS48
END OF MONTH

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

0*N

D

1949
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE: Bo(

[Billions of dollars, all commercial banks]

End of period

1929
1939
1945
1947
1948 .
1948: September
October
November
December..
1949: January™
February
March
April
May .
June
July _ „
August
September
October *
1

v

- _ _ _

_
_ _ _ _
_
__

__
_ _

_

_

_ _ _ _ _
__ _
_ _ _
_

Investments

Total
loans and
investments

Bank loans

49. 5
40.7
124. 0
116. 3
114. 3
113. 6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3
114. 5
113. 4
112. 5
112. 5
113. 4
113. 7
114. 7
117. 9
118. 8
119. 8

36. 0
17.2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
41.7
41. 6
42.3
42.5
42.4
42. 0
42.4
41.3
40.9
41.2
40. 5
41.2
41. 8
41. 9

Total

Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




30

13. 5
23.4
97. 9
78. 2
71.8
71.9
72. 5
71.9
71.8
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
71.2
72. 6
72. 5
74.2
76. 7
77. 0
77. 9

U. S.
Government
securities
4.8

16. 3
90.6
69. 2
62.6
62.5
63.3
62.8
62.6
63.0
62. 2
60. 9
62.0
63.2
63.0
64.4
66. 7
66. 8
67. 7

Other
securities
8.7

7. 1

7.3
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.2

9. 1
9.2

9. 1
9. 1
9. 2

9.2
9.3
9.5
9.8

10.0
10. 2
10. 2

MONEY SUPPLY
Increased demand deposits expanded the total money supply almost $ \YZ billion in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS)

:TIME DEPOSITS

ADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS

1939

1943

1946

1947

1948

J

F

M

A

M

END OF YEAR

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

1947

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

1948

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1949

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
End of period

Total money
supply

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
_ . _ _
1948: September
October
_
November
December
1949: January.
. _
February
March
April
May __
June
July
August
_ __
September
3
October
_ _

63.3
112. 4
164.0
170. 0
169. 1
166.9
168. 1
168 1
169. 1
168. 2
166. 3
164. 2
165. 5
165. 7
165 6
166. 3
166. 9
166. 6
168.0

_ __

_ _ _
_

Currency
outside
banks
6.4

18. 8
26. 7
26. 5
26. 1
25.7
25. 7
25 9
26. 1
25. 2
25. 1
25. 1
24.9
25. 0
25. 0
24.9
25. 1
24. 9
24. 9

Adjusted
demand
deposits l
29. 8
60. 8
83.3
87. 1
85. 5
83.9
85. 1
85. 2
85. 5
85.4
83.4
81. 1
82. 4
82. 6
82. 2
83. 1
83.4
83. 3
84. 6

Time
deposits s
27. 1
32. 7
54.0
56.4
57.5
57.3
57.3
57. 0
57.5
57.6
57.8
58. 0
58. 1
58. 2
58. 4
58.4
58.3
58. 4
58.4

1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
3
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit of about $400 million for the 3rd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.3 billion for
the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

CASH RECEIPTS

CASH PAYMENTS

2

2 1947

1946

2

2 1948

1949

EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS

LJ

111

EXCESS OF CASH

1946

2 ,947 3

4

.

CALENDAR

2

1949

1948

YEARS

SOURCE: B U R E A U OF THE BUDGET AND T R E A S U R Y DEPARTMENT.

[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public l

Calendar years

Federal cash
payments to
the public l

Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )

Calendar year total:
+ 54
41, 372
41, 426
1946 .
.
+ 5,695
38, 584
44, 279
1947
4-7,967
44, 920
36, 954
1948
_ _ _
._
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
+ 1, 252
8,449
9, 702
1946: Third quarter _
4-959
8,671
9,630
Fourth quarter
4-5, 182
9, 163
1947: First quarter
14, 345
-781
9, 847
10, 628
Second quarter
— 37
10, 257
Third quarter
10, 220
+
1,331
8,536
9, 869
Fourth quarter
_ _ _ _ __
4-6,400
8,637
15, 037
1948: First quarter
> _ _
+ 1, 205
9,033
Second quarter
10, 238
+ 1,287
8, 798
Third quarter
__
10, 085
-925
9,560
10, 486
Fourth quarter
9,964
+ 3, 158
13, 122
1949: First quarter
— 2, 541
11,355
8, 814
Second quarter2
10,528
— 385
10, 143
Third quarter
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expenditures.
* Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

o
32




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