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104th Congress, 2d Session
Economic Indicators
AUGUST 1996
(Includes data available as of August 30, 1996)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
L I B R A It Y
•qcp 9 o
««IG.F ,'j sj
lyjOv
FEDERAL RESERVE
BANK OF CHICAGO
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1996
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
CONNIE MACK, Florida, Chairman
JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
LARRY E. CRAIG (Idaho)
ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)
RICK SANTORUM (Pennsylvania)
RODNEY D. GRAMS (Minnesota)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
THOMAS W. EWING (Illinois)
JACK QUINN (New York)
DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois)
MARSHALL (MARK) SANFORD (South Carolina)
WILLIAM M. (MAC) THORNBERRY (Texas)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York)
CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York)
ROBERT N. MOTTICE, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, Chairman
MARTIN N. BAILY, Member
ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member
{PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies
to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic
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libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch,
Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy
($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing)
from:
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ISBN 0-16-053445-3
11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME AND SPENDING
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
In the second quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose
6.7 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 4.8 percent, and the implicit price deflator
rose 1.8 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
7,600
SEASONAliY ADJUSTED ANNUM. RATES
7,600
^^,
7,200
^
7,200
/*
6,800
6,000
f---^
^"'
--'
5,600
x^
r — ~"
— ^ ""
5,200
-—
^<! >*
GDP
INCHMNED( 1992) DOLL.SJiS
\
6,400
^—
6,800
6,400
_—
6,000
^
5,600
^
5,200
s
X
4,800
x
4,800
X*
GDP
..\ CURRENT DOLLARS
s/
4,400
4,400
/
4,000
4,000
v\
/
3,600
3,200
I
i t
1982
I I I 1983
V^
3,600
3,200
1
i
i
1984
I i i
1985
1
1
!
1986
i i I
1987
1988
1 1 1
\
1989
1990
\
{
\ \ \
1991
\
\
\ I i
1995
\
1992
1993
1994
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Exports and imports
of goods and services
Gross
private
Gross
domestic sumption domestic
Net
product expendi- investexports Exports Imports
tures
ment
Personal
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1990-
..
..
..
..
IV
1991: IV
1992- IV
1993: I
II
in
rv
1994: I
II
III
rv
1995- I
II
III
IV
1996- I
II'
1
4,692.3
5,049.6
5,438.7
5,743.8
5,916.7
6,244.4
6,553.0
6,935.7
7,253.8
5,781.5
6,002.3
6,383.0
6,442.6
6,506.2
6,574.4
6,688.6
6,776.0
6,890.5
6,993.1
7,083.2
7,149.8
7.204.9
7,309.8
7,350.6
7,426.8
7,547.6
3,094.5
3,349.7
3,594.8
3,839.3
3,975.1
4,219.8
4,454.1
4,700.9
4,924.9
3,907.0
4,027.1
4,329.6
4,367.6
4,424.8
4,481.0
4,543.1
4,600.9
4,666.2
4,738.3
4,798.2
4,840.6
4,910.5
4,957.9
4,990.5
5,060.5
5,140.0
747.2 -142.1
773.9 -106.1
-80.4
829.2
-71.3
799.7
-20.5
736.2
-29.5
790.4
-62.7
871.1
-94.4
1,014.4
-94.7
1,065.3
-72.0
736.1
-14.8
760.9
-42.7
816.1
-47.9
843.6
- 59.6
855.9
- 74.5
873.8
-68.8
911.2
-78.8
957.6
-93.0
1,016.5
1,033.6 -107.0
-98.7
1,050.1
1,072.0 -108.7
1,050.3 -115.3
-87.6
1,074.8
-67.2
1,064.0
-86.3
1,068.9
-99.7
1,097.0
OOP jess exfjort-s of frowis and xecvi«;s jilus im K»t.s of grcods ami .services.
365.7
447.2
509.3
557.3
601.8
639.4
657.8
719.1
807.4
577.3
624.4
649.1
646.9
660.4
645.3
678.7
678.9
707.4
729.2
761.0
776.1
797.3
819.0
837.0
839.5
848.8
507.9
553.2
589.7
628.6
622.3
669.0
720.5
813.5
902.0
649.2
639.3
691.8
694.8
720.0
719.8
747.5
757.6
800.4
836.1
859.6
884.8
912.6
906.6
904.2
925.8
948.6
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Total
Total
992.8
1,032.0
1,095.1
1,176.1
1,225.9
1,263.8
1,290.4
1,314.7
1,358.3
1,210.4
1,229.2
1,280.0 1.279.3
1,285.1
1,294.1
1,303.2
1,296.4
1,300.8
1,328.2
1,333.5
1,345.8
1,359.4
1,364.6
1,363.4
1,383.7
1,410.3
455.7
457.3
477.2
503.6
522.6
528.0
522.6
516.4
516.6
516.7
515.5
535.0
525.5
520.1
521.3
523.5
511.3
509.4
523.8
520.9
519.7
522.0
516.8
507.7
518.6
530.8
National Nondefense defense
350.4
354.0
360.6
373.1
383.5
375.8
362.7
352.0
345.5
383.3
373.0
375.3
365.7
362.7
361.2
361.3
346.7
349.3
362.3
349.7
347.6
351.7
345.7
337.1
343.9
354.7
Souree: Department of < >0)m»
105.3
103.3
116.7
130.4
139.1
152.2
159.9
164.3
171.0
133.3
142.6
159.7
159.8
157.4
160.1
162.2
164.6
160.0
161.5
171.2
172.1
170.3
171.1
170.6
174.7
176.1
State
and
local
537.2
574.7
617.9
672.6
703.4
735,8
767.8
798.4
841.7
693.7
713.6
745.1
753.8
765.0
772.7
779.7
785.0
791.4
804.4
812.6
826.1
837.3
847.7
855.7
865.1
879.5
Final
Gross
sales of domestic
domestic
purproduct chases '
4,668.1
5,038.7
5,407.0
5,735.8
5,919.0
6,237.4
6,532.4
6,876.2
7,216.7
5,812.9
5,980.9
6,376.6
6,422.8
6,484.6
6,552.3
6,669.8
6,735.9
6,816.0
6,928.5
7,024.6
7,091.7
7,170.9
7,271.5
7,332.8
7,428.6
7,539.1
, Bureau of Kcouojnje Analysis.
4,834.5
5,155.6
5,519.1
5,815.1
5,937.2
6,274.0
6,615.7
7,030.1
7,348.4
5,853.5
6,017.1
6,425.7
6,490.5
6,565.8
6,648.8
6,757.4
6,854.8
6,983.5
7,100.1
7,181.9
7,258.4
7,320.2
7,397.3
7,417.8
7,513.2
7,647.4
Addendum:
Gross
national
product
4,701.3
5,062.6
5,452.8
5,764.9
5,932.4
6,255.5
6,563.5
6,931.9
7,246.7
5,813.6
6,016.6
6,390.5
6,458.6
6,516.5
6.587.1
6,691.9
6,781.0
6,888.3
6,987.0
7,071.4
7,146.8
7,202.4
7,293.4
7,344.3
7,426.6
7,540.2
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
| Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates j
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19901991:
1992:
1993-
Personal
Gross
condomestic sumption
product expenditures
5,648.4
5,862.9
6,060.4
6,138.7
6,079.0
6,244.4
6,386.4
6,608.7
6,742.9
IV
IV .
IV
I
II ...
m
IV
1994: I
II
in ...
IV
1995- I
II
in .
rv
1996: I
II "
Gross private
domestic investment
Nonresidentia!
fixed
investment
Residential
fixed
investment
Change
in business
inventories
542.4
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
257.6
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
6,081.0
6,104.4
6,327.3
3,822.3
3,972.7
4,064.6
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,339.5
4,473.2
4,577.8
4,116.4
4,109.1
4,282.3
573.9
539.5
569.1
6,326.4
6,356.5
6,393.4
6,469.1
6,508.5
6,587.6
6,644.9
6,693.9
4,289.7
4,318.8
4,359.5
4,390.0
4,420.5
4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0
6,701.0
6,713.5
6,776.4
6,780.7
6,814.3
6,894.5
4,534.8
4,569.9
4,597.3
4,609.4
4,649.1
4,688.1
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
628.5
639.5
660.5
679.7
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
750.9
200.3
202.4
236.7
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
26.2
11.6
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.3
19.1
58.9
33.1
-28.2
21.4
5.8
18.5
20.8
19.5
17.4
40.5
74.5
64.5
56.1
54.5
30.5
33.0
14.6
-3.0
7.2
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
281.3
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Net
exports
-1562
-114.4
-82.7
-61.9
-22.3
-29.5
-72.0
-105.7
-107.6
-42.5
-17.9
-40.0
-56.0
-64.4
-86.2
-81.5
-99.3
-107.3
-111.7
- 104.3
-122.5
-121.4
-101.6
-84.9
- 104.0
-115.2
Exports
Imports
402.0
465.8
520.2
564.4
599.9
639.4
658.2
712.0
775.4
558.2
580.2
603.0
626.3
622.2
669.0
730.2
817.6
883.0
1,165.9
1,180.9
1,213.9
1,250.4
1,258.0
1,263.8
1,261.0
1,260.0
1,260.2
573.9
623.5
649.1
616.4
641.4
689.1
703.1
724.4
731.7
761.8
777.0
810.4
831.3
851.9
874.9
884.6
884.5
888.0
910.7
931.4
1,259.9
1,250.7
1,272.5
647.1
660.0
645.5
680.3
677.6
703.1
719.6
747.6
752.3
763.2
783.0
803.1
806.7
816.2
1
GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
Note.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDI*, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components <ti> not tultl to the ehained-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Total
Total
1,257.7
1,258.4
1,261.6
1,266.2
1,252.4
1,249.8
1,271.2
1,266.6
534.4
524.6
531.5
541.9
539.4
528.0
509.2
489.8
472.3
543.5
526.9
534.0
516.1
509.7
505.9
505.0
489.9
483.3
496.7
489.2
1,262.7
1,265.1
1,263.4
1,249.6
1,254.7
1,279.8
481.0
479.4
472.5
456.2
462.9
474.8
National
defense
Nondefcnse
409.2
405.5
401.6
401.5
397.5
375.8
355.4
337.0
319.6
125.3
119.1
130.1
403.1
381.7
376.8
361.6
356.9
351.6
351.2
334.8
335.5
346.2
331.3
325.0
325.5
319.1
308.8
311.9
320.5
State
and
local
140.5
142.0
152.2
153.8
152.6
152.3
140.5
145.3
157.1
154.4
152.7
154.2
153.7
154.9
147.8
150.4
157.5
155.6
153.5
153.1
147.0
150.6
153.9
631.8
656.6
682.6
708.6
718.7
735.8
751.8
770.5
788.6
716.5
723.8
738.5
741.6
748.8
755.7
761.3
762.7
766.8
774.7
777.7
782.2
786.3
791.5
794.4
792.6
805.7
Final
sales of
domestic
product
Gross
domestic
purchases l
Addendum:
Gross
national
product
5,626.0
5,855.1
6,028.7
6,126.7
6,082.6
6,237.4
6,365.5
6,550.7
6,708.9
5,815.7
5,983.9
6,146.1
6,202.1
6,101.1
6,274.0
6,457.6
6,711.8
6,847.1
5,657.2
5,876.2
6,074.0
6,159.4
6,094.4
6,255.5
6,397.1
6,606.0
6,737.1
6,108.1
6,083.8
6,320.7
6,124.3
6,122.3
6,367.3
6,382.1
6,420.4
6,478.6
6,549.3
6,605.9
6,692.3
6,753.7
6,795.3
6,819.8
6,830.9
6,874.8
6,862.9
6,914.6
7,005.5
6,113.4
6,118.7
6,334.8
6,307.1
6,334.5
6,371.3
6,449.2
6,467.7
6,514.9
6,582.1
6,638.1
6,647.4
6,682.4
6,741.4
6,764.2
6,815.2
6,886.4
6,342.5
6,366.9
6,406.3
6,472.5
6,514.0
6,586.2
6,640.0
6,683.5
6,699.1
6,711.9
6,762.0
6,775.6
6,814.9
6.888.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(Index numbers, 1992=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted)
Gross >rivate
domestic investment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 .
1992
1993
1994
1995
1990: IV
1991:
IV
1992: IV
1993- I
II
Ill
IV
1994- I
II
Ill
IV
1995- I
II
in
rv
1996- I
II'
Gross
domestic
product
83.1
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
104.9
107.6
95.1
98.3
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.5
Total
81.0
84.3
88.4
92.9
96.8
100.0
102.6
105.1
107.6
94.9
98.0
101.1
101.8
102.5
102.8
103.5
104.1
104.7
105.5
106.1
106.7
107.5
107.8
108.3
108.9
109.6
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Services
91.6
93.3
95.3
96.6
98.5
100.0
101.3
103.4
104.6
97.0
99.1
100.2
100.5
101.1
101.5
101.9
102.4
103.2
103.9
103.9
104.7
104.8
104.5
104.3
104.3
103.6
81.8
84.8
89.3
94.6
98.1
100.0
101.5
102.8
104.5
97.4
98.7
100.7
101.3
101.5
101.3
101.9
78.2
82.2
86.6
91.2
95.8
100.0
103.6
106.7
109.9
93.1
97.4
101.5
102.4
103.3
103.9
104.7
105.6
106.2
107.1
107.9
108.8
109.7
110.3
110.9
111.4
112.3
102.0
102.4
103.3
103.6
103.9
104.5
104.7
105.0
106.0
107.2
Kource: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Nonresident] al
fixed
91.3
93.7
96.2
98.4
99.9
100.0
100.9
102.3
103.4
99.4
99.9
100.1
100.5
100.8
101.0
101.1
101.6
102.2
102.7
102.7
102.7
103.4
103.8
103.6
103.4
103.1
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Residential fixed
88.3
92.1
95.1
97.8
98.8
100.0
103.7
107.0
110.3
98.3
98.9
101.4
102.3
103.6
104.3
104.7
105.7
106.2
107.4
108.6
109.2
109.9
110.7
111.3
111.3
111.6
Exports
Imports
Total
91.0
96.0
97.9
98.7
100.3
100.0
99.9
101.0
104.1
100.6
100.2
100.0
100.0
100.1
100.0
99.8
100.2
100.6
101.3
101.8
103.2
104.5
104.6
104.2
104.1
104.0
91.0
95.3
97.8
100.4
100.0
100.0
98.7
99.5
102.2
105.3
99.7
100.4
98.8
99.4
98.4
98.1
97.5
98.8
100.6
100.9
101.1
103.2
102.5
101.8
101.7
101.8
85.3
87.2
89.8
92.9
96.9
100.0
102.6
105.4
109.4
95.1
97.8
100.2
101.8
102.0
103.0
103.6
104.4
105.4
105.5
106.5
108.0
108.9
109.4
111.3
112.0
111.8
National
defense
Nondefeuse
85.6
87.3
89.8
92.9
96.5
100.0
102.1
104.5
108.1
95.1
97.7
99.6
101.1
101.6
102.7
102.9
103.6
104.1
104.7
105.5
106.9
108.1
108.3
109.2
110.3
110.7
84.0
86.7
89.7
92.8
97.9
100.0
104.0
107.7
112.3
94.9
98.1
101.6
103.5
103.1
103.9
105.5
106.3
108.3
107.4
108.7
110.6
110.9
111.8
116.0
116.0
114.4
State
and
local
85.0
87.5
90.5
94.9
97.9
100.0
102.1
103.6
106.7
96.8
98.6
100.9
101.6
102.2
102.3
102.4
102.9
103.2
103.8
104.5
105.6
106.5
107.1
107.7
109.1
109.2
QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND
PERCENT CHANGES
[Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Percent change from preceding period 1
Index numbers, 1992=100
Chain-type
quantity
index
Current
dollars
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1991: I ...
II ..
Ill
IV .
1992: I ...
II ..
Ill
IV .
1993: I ...
II ..
Ill
IV .
1994: I ...
II ..
Ill
rv .
1995: I ...
II ..
Ill
IV .
1996: I ...
II'
51.9
56.3
62.5
67.0
70.8
75.1
80.9
87.1
92.0
94.8
100.0
104.9
r
111.1
116.2
93.2
94.4
95.3
96.1
98.0
99.3
100.4
102.2
103.2
104.2
105.3
107.1
108.5
Chain-tyi>e
price index
74.0
77.0
82.3
85.3
87.9
90.5
93.9
97.1
98.3
97.3
100.0
102.3
105.8
108.0
96.9
97.3
97.5
97.8
98.9
99.5
100.3
101.3
101.3
101.8
102.4
103.6
104.2
105.5
106.4
107.2
110.3
112.0
113.4
114.5
115.4
117.1
117.7
118.9
120.9
70.2
73.2
75.9
78.6
80.6
83.1
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
105.0
107.6
96.3
97.0
97.7
98.3
99.1
99.8
100.2
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.6
107.3
107.5
108.5
108.6
109.1
110.4
1
Percent change '• based on unrounded indoxes. Quarterly !>crcerit changes are at annual
rates.
Implicit
price
deflator
Chain-type
quantity
index
70.1
73.1
75.9
78.4
80.6
83.1
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
104.9
107.6
96.3
97.0
97.7
98.3
99.1
99.8
100.2
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.5
4.1
8.4
11.0
7.1
5.8
6.1
7.6
7.7
5.6
3.0
5.5
4.9
5.8
4.6
2.8
4.9
4.0
3.6
8.2
5.3
4.6
7.3
3.8
4.0
4.3
7.1
5.3
6.9
6.1
5.3
3.8
3.1
6.0
2.3
4.2
6.7
Chain-type
price
index
-2.1
4.0
6.8
3.7
3.0
2.9
3.8
3.4
1.3
-1.0
2.7
2.3
3.5
2.0
-2.2
1.7
1.0
1.0
4.7
2.5
3.0
4.3
-.1
1.9
2.3
4.8
2.5
4.9
3.5
3.0
.4
.7
3.8
.3
2.0
4.8
Implicit
price
deflator
6.3
4.2
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.4
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.5
4.8
3.2
2.8
2.5
3.4
2.8
1.5
2.8
3.8
2.2
1.8
2.3
2.9
1.9
2.4
2.1
3.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
6.3
4.2
3.9
3.3
2.7
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.3
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.5
5.1
3.1
2.9
2.5
3.3
2.7
1.5
2.9
3.8
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.8
1.9
2.5
2.2
3.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.2
1.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates!
(iross domestic product
of rionfinaneial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1993: I
II
Ill
IV
1994: I
II
Ill
IV
1995: I
II
Ill
IV
1996: I
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
2,589.6
2,805.2
2,950.9
3,084.0
3,132.1
3,262.6
3,437.5
3,689.4
3,885.8
3,344.2
3,407.3
3,459.7
3,538.7
3,601.7
3,663.0
3,709.5
3,783.2
3,803.3
3,841.9
3,924.8
3,973.2
4,011.6
4,087.3
2,967.0
3,122.1
3,175.4
3,212.5
3,168.8
3,262.6
3,380.0
3,567.7
3,692.3
3,302.9
3,356.7
3,399.2
3,461.1
3,503.9
3,553.0
3,577.7
3,636.3
3,634.1
3,656.1
3,719.9
3,759.1
3,779.2
3,835.7
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars)1
Total
cost and
profit 2
'Output is mea-sui-ed by 01)]* of rionfinaneial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars.
'- This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of rionfinaneial corporate business
with the decimal iHtint shifted two places to the left.
0.873
.898
.929
.960
.988
1.000
1.017
1.034
1.052
1.012
1.015
1.018
1.022
1.028
1.031
1.037
1.040
1.047
1.051
1.055
1.057
1.062
1.066
Consumption of
fixed
capital
0.100
.101
.106
.110
.116
.115
.115
.116
.115
.116
.115
.116
.114
.122
.114
.114
.113
.114
.115
.115
.115
.115
.115
Indirect
business
tax, cte.»
0.083
.084
.088
.092
.100
.103
.105
.106
.109
.105
.105
.105
.107
.106
.106
.107
.106
.108
.110
.108
.108
.107
.107
Compensation
of employees
0.578
.591
.614
.640
.660
.673
.679
.682
.697
.682
.679
.679
.675
.680
.681
.684
.686
.696
.698
.696
.699
.702
.705
(Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Profits
tax
liability
0.076
.082
.075
.072
.070
.077
.088
.102
.104
.079
.085
.089
.098
.092
.103
.105
.108
.100
.100
.109
.108
.111
.113
0.031
.033
.031
.030
.027
.028
.031
.036
.038
.028
.031
.029
.034
.035
.036
.037
.039
.039
.038
.038
.037
.039
.039
Profits
aftertax 4
0.044
.050
.044
.042
.043
.049
.057
.066
.066
.050
.055
.059
.065
.058
.067
.068
.070
.061
.062
.071
.070
.072
.074
0.035
.039
.046
.046
.042
.032
.029
.027
.027
.031
.030
.029
.028
.027
.027
.028
.027
.028
.028
.027
.027
.026
.026
•' Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less sulisidics.
4
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at. seasonally adjusted annual rates|
National
income
Period
Compensation
of
Proprietors' income
with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
ees1
1990
1991
1992
1993
.
1994
1995
1990- IV
1991:
. .
.
IV
1992- IV
1993: I ..
II
in
rv
1994- I
II
in
IV
1995- I
II
in
rv
... .
1996- I
II'
1
4,611.9
4,719.7
4,950.8
5,195.3
5,501.6
5,813.5
4,667.2
4,770.0
5,061.7
5,096.3
5,159.4
5,214.1
5,311.3
5,304.8
5,493.2
5,561.7
5,646.9
5,709.9
5,755.4
5,861.4
5,927.4
6,015.3
6.116.4
Farm
3,352.8
3,457.9
3,644.9
3,809.5
4,009.8
4,222.7
3,395.9
3,511.0
3,707.0
3,744.2
3,787.9
3,834.9
3,871.1
3,932.6
3,988.0
4,027.5
4,091.0
4,150.5
4,191.6
4,247.7
4,301.1
4,344.3
4.421.0
Noiifarm
36.3
30.2
38.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
33.9
31.0
37.3
31.5
35.8
26.1
34.4
40.8
35.1
31.9
32.3
28.5
27.6
28.1
31.8
38.4
46.1
324.6
332.7
371.5
388.1
415.9
449.3
327.1
341.1
385.1
382.0
381.8
388.1
400.5
380.3
419.3
426.8
437.1
443.5
447.1
451.5
454.9
461.1
470.0
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
Rental
income
of
pereons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
61.4
68.4
80.6
102.5
116.6
122.2
67.3
73.0
92.3
98.4
102.9
104.1
104.5
101.1
121.0
122.2
121.9
120.6
121.6
120.9
125.8
126.9
123.1
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
Profits with inventor}7 valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total
369.5
382.5
401.4
464.4
529.5
586.6
365.5
379.6
427.7
427.4
447.8
469.6
512.8
459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9
560.0
562.3
612.5
611.8
645.1
653.8
358.2
378.2
398.9
457.7
517.9
570.8
356.5
375.2
420.5
422.4
442.0
465.9
500.5
471.6
516.2
534.3
549.6
542.6
547.3
597.9
595.3
624.8
631.0
Profits
before tax
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
371.7
374.2
406.4
464.3
531.2
598.9
376.7
382.8
420.3
437.0
457.6
458.0
504.5
475.5
526.0
550.8
572.4
594.5
589.6
607.2
604.2
642.2
644.0
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-6.6
-133
-28.1
-20.3
-7.6
.2
-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0
-3.9
-9.8
-165
-22.8
-51 9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8
-174
-13.0
Capital
consumption
adjustment
Net
interest
11.3
4.3
2.5
6.7
11.6
15.9
9.0
4.5
7.2
5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3
-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3
17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5
20.4
22.7
467.3
448.0
414.3
398.9
394.9
403.6
477.5
434.3
412.4
412.8
403.2
391.4
388.0
390.2
395.5
400.1
393.8
406.9
405.2
400.7
401.9
399.5
402.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of* Economic Analysis.
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Durable goods
Period
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19901991:
19921993-
IV
IV
IV
I
II
in
IV
1994:
I
II
in
IV
1995- I
II
in
rv
1996- I
II'
1
Total
|>crsonal
consumption
expenditures
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,339.5
4,473.2
4,577.8
4,116.4
4,109.1
4,282.3
4,289.7
4,318.8
4,359.5
4,390.0
4,420.5
4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0
4,534.8
4,569,9
4,597.3
4,609.4
4,649.1
4,688.1
Total
durable
goods
493.3
462.0
488.5
524.1
562.0
579.8
476.3
461.5
505.0
506.0
519.6
528.9
541.9
549.6
555.4
563.1
579.8
566.5
576.2
589.1
587.5
599.2
616.1
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
224.3
193.2
206.9
218.6
228.2
221.1
210.0
194.6
213.9
210.8
219.0
219.1
225.3
230.3
226.6
226.5
229.4
216.3
220.9
226.4
220.6
224.2
226.4
Furniture
and
household
equipment
173.5
177.0
189.4
208.4
230.1
251.1
171.5
178.0
196.4
200.7
205.0
211.0
216.8
219.0
226.1
232.6
242.6
243.1
247.1
254.1
259.9
264.1
276.1
Other
Total
nondurable
goods
96.6 1,316.1
91.8 1,302.9
92.3 1,321.8
97.2 '1,348.8
104.2 1,390.5
109.8 1,421.9
95.5 1,308.4
88.9 1,295.7
94.6 1,339.8
94.5 1,336.9
95.5 1,344.5
98.9 1,354.0
99.9 1,359.9
100.3 1,372.9
1,383.9
103.0
1,397.0
104.7
108.8 1,408.1
108.9 1,416.6
109.9 1,422.9
110.5 1,424.7
109.9 1,423.2
113.9 1,436.1
117.3 1,442.0
Includes other items, not shown separately.
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (199*2) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not luiil to the chained-dollar value of GDI* or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Services
Nondurable goods
Food
662.9
659.6
660.0
674.3
689.1
702.1
662.9
656.5
668.6
670.5
672.9
675.7
677.9
682.3
688.6
690.5
694.9
700.5
701.3
703.6
703.0
709.2
705.8
Clothing
and
shoes
Gasoline
and oil
217.9
215.9
225.5
233.3
247.2
257.2
215.1
213.1
230.9
227.4
232.3
235.0
238.6
241.1
243.3
249.0
255.5
254.6
257.9
258.8
257.3
262.5
269.1
107.3
103.4
106.6
109.1
110.4
113.3
104.9
102.5
107.3
108.2
108.0
110.9
109.3
108.8
109.5
111.6
111.6
113.4
113.6
112.5
113.7
112.6
114.4
Fuel
oil
and
eoal
11.2
10.8
10.9
10.7
10.3
10.3
9.9
10.6
10.7
10.9
10.6
10.7
10.6
11.4
10.0
10.2
9.6
9.9
10.6
10.0
10.7
10.7
10.2
Other
Total
serviees '
316.7
313.2
318.8
321.5
333.5
339.3
315.6
312.8
322.3
319.9
320.8
321.8
323.4
329.3
332.3
335.8
336.7
338.4
339.9
340.0
338.8
341.6
343.4
2,321.3
2,341.0
2,409.4
2,466.7
2,521.4
2,577.0
2,331.2
2,352.0
2,437.6
2,446.8
2,454.9
2,476.7
2,488.5
2,498.5
2,519.9
2,530.0
2,537.3
2,552.5
2,571.6
2,584.6
2,599.3
2,614.7
2,631.2
Housing
627.2
635.2
646.8
655.0
668.2
681.7
630.6
638.6
650.6
652.2
653.5
655.9
658.5
662.1
666.1
670.7
674.1
677.4
680.0
683.2
686.3
689.0
691.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Medical
602.8
621.6
646.6
658.8
668.8
684.1
610.6
630.8
652.2
656.6
657.5
659.7
661.4
663.2
667.6
670.4
674.2
677.8
681.3
686.0
691.2
691.1
695.4
Ketail sales
of new passenger ears
and light
trucks
(millions of
units)
13.9
12.3
12.8
13.9
15.0
14.7
13.0
12.3
13.3
13.0
14.1
13.8
14.5
]5.1
14.8
15.0
15.2
14.6
14.4
15.0
14.9
15.2
15.1
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $7.0 billion (annual rate) in July, following an increase of $55.2 billion in June. Wages and
salaries rose $5.0 billion in July, compared with an increase of $46.2 billion in June. In July, declines in privatesector average weekly hours and average hourly earnings more than offset an increase in employment. In June,
on the other hand, hours, earnings, and employment had all increased.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
7,000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
7,000
4,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
2,000
2,000
"T""'
1,400
1,400
OTHER INCOME
800
800
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
I I I I I I I I II I
400
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
I I I I [ I M I II
I I I I I I I I I II
1995
1996
400
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995: July
Sept
Get
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr1"
May
July**
1
. ..
Total
personal
income
3,877.3
4,172.8
4,489.3
4,791.6
4,968.5
5,264.2
5,480.1
5,753.1
6,115.1
6,129.8
6,138.9
6.172.1
6,206.6
6,229.4
6,267.4
6,270.1
6,315.2
6,340.1
6,371.3
6,404.9
6,460.1
6,467.1
Wage and
salary
disbursements '
2,272.7
2,453.6
2,598.1
2,757.5
2,827.6
2,986.4
3,090.7
3,241.8
3,430.6
3,444.0
3,443.9
3,465.6
3,491.9
3,495.0
3,513.6
3,508.1
3,546.0
3,560.6
3,579.1
3,597.2
3,643.4
3,638.4
Proprietors' income 3
Other labor
income '2
32.3
28.2
36.8
36.3
30.2
38.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
27.6
28.0
28.8
30.4
31.9
33.2
36.2
38.8
40.1
43.3
46.5
48.5
50.0
235.4
251.7
273.1
300.6
322.7
351.3
380.9
402.2
424.0
424.6
425.8
427.2
428.7
430.2
431.7
427.4
429.1
430.8
432.4
434.0
435.6
437.1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees {see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and
the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
Farm
3
Nonfarm
260.6
294.7
308.2
324.6
332.7
371.5
388.1
415.9
449.3
448.4
451.9
454.2
452.9
455.0
456.9
457.0
461.3
465.1
467.9
470.7
471.4
473.3
Rental
income
of
persons4
45.5
55.7
52.4
61.4
68.4
80.6
102.5
116.6
122.2
122.0
120.6
120.2
119.5
127.4
130.7
129.1
126.7
125.0
123.2
123.4
122.7
123.6
Personal
dividend
income
101.1
109.9
130.9
142.9
153.6
159.4
186.8
199.6
214.8
214.3
215.6
217.4
219.5
221.9
223.8
225.3
226.5
227.9
228.7
229.4
229.9
230.8
Personal
interest
income.
560.0
595.5
674.5
704.4
699.2
667.2
648.1
663.7
717.1
718.2
719.7
721.7
724.2
727.0
730.3
728.4
725.6
724.3
727.9
733.5
737.4
739.0
Transfer
payments5
Less: Personal contributions
for social
insurance
543.3
577.6
626.0
687.8
769.9
858.2
910.7
956.3
1,022.6
1,026.6
1,028.9
1,034.1 '
1,038.0
1,039.3
1,046.9
1,057.4
1,062.5
1,069.0
1,072.5
1,075.4
1,079.5
1,083.0
With inventory valuation and capital consumption a<ljustincnts.
*With capita! consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
5
173.7
194.2
210.8
223.9
235.8
248.4
259.6
278.1
294.5
295.9
295.6
297.2
298.4
298.4
299.7
298.9
301.5
302.7
303.9
305.2
308.3
308.2
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
According to revised estimates, per capita disposable persona! income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual
rate of 0.7 percent in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOUARS- (RATIO SCALE)
6,000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE]
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
20,000
CHAINED (1 992) DOLLARS
\ _
18,000
r
16,000
1
p--"
^~ ^*
14,000
•••
^-— '
12,000
j^**1 '
"
—
.
__.
•
DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)
22,000
p» ••
20,000
.———•
18,000
16,000
\
\
CURRENT XM1ARS
14,000
12,000
^
.
10,000
•—
10,000
^
i i i
1982
8,000
1
1
1983
!
i i i
i I i
1
1984
1985
1986
1
1
\
1
1987
!
i i I
1988
: i i
1989
I I I
1990
!
1 1
1991
1
1
!
1992
i i i
1
1993
1994
1
!
i i i
1995
I I I
1996
8,000
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
Personal
income
Less:
Personal
tax arid
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
[wrsonal
income
Less:
Personal
outlays '
Equals:
Persona!
saving
Disposable
|>ersonal
income in
billions of
chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita
disposable persona]
income
Current
dollars
Billions of dollars
4,172.8
4,489.3
4,791.6
4,968.5
5,264.2
5,480.1
5,753.1
6,115.1
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
532.0
594.9
624.8
624.8
650.5
689.9
731.4
794.3
3,640.8
3,894.5
4,166.8
4,343.7
4,613.7
4,790.2
5,021.7
5,320.8
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita personal
consu mptiori
expen itures
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
4,318.1
4,403.7
4,484.6
4,486.4
4,613.7
4,666.9
4,778.2
4,945.8
189.1
187.8
208.7
246.4
272.6
214.4
189.4
249.3
14,857
15,742
16,670
17,191
18,062
18,555
19,264
20,224
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
overseas
(thousands) 2
Percent
Dollars
3,451.7
3,706.7
3,958.1
4,097.4
4,341.0
4,575.8
4,832.3
5,071.5
Percent
change
in real
per capita
disposable
personal
income
17,621
17,801
17,941
17,756
18,062
18,078
18,330
18,799
13,669
14,531
15,360
15,732
16,520
17,253
18,033
18,719
16,211
16,430
16,532
16,249
16,520
16,809
17,159
17,400
17,802
17,759
18,277
17,900
18,069
18,084
18,256
17,966
18,346
18,430
18,574
18,704
18,676
18,829
18,986
19,041
19,073
15,564
15,871
16,877
16,984
17,164
17,335
17,528
17,714
17,924
18,154
18,338
18,463
18,689
18,823
18,901
19,128
19,385
16,398
16,194
16,692
16,681
16,754
16,864
16,937
17,019
17,127
17,200
17,290
17,296
17,393
17,454
17,458
17,573
17,681
3.0
1.0
.8
-1.0
1.7
.1
1.4
2.6
5.2
4.8
5.0
5.7
5.9
4.5
3.8
4.7
245,061
247,387
249,956
252,680
255,432
258,159
260,681
263,090
-8.0
3.8
.3
3.9
-6.2
8.7
1.8
3.2
2.8
-.6
3.3
3.4
1.2
.7
5.0
6.0
6.1
4.2
4.8
4.2
4.7
2.7
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.9
4.1
4.5
5.2
4.8
4.4
251,031
253,743
256,543
257,155
257,787
258,501
259,192
259,738
260,327
261,004
261,653
262,181
262,748
263,399
264,032
264,563
265,154
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1990199119921993-
IV
IV
IV
I
II
Ill
rv
1994- I
II
Ill
rv
1995- I
II
III
IV
1996:
I
II r
4,868.6
5,048.9
5,415.3
5,349.1
5,459.2
5,501.6
5,610.5
5,562.4
5,739.1
5,808.2
5,902.7
6,004.5
6,074.4
6,146.9
6,234.5
6,308.5
6,412.1
1
627.1
632.5
674.8
662.4
686.9
696.4
713.8
705.5
740.8
731.3
748.1
770.0
801.5
798.4
807.2
824.9
867.3
4,241.5
4,416.4
4,740.5
4,686.7
4,772.3
4,805.2
4,896.7
4,856.8
4,998.3
5,076.9
5,154.6
5,234.5
5,272.9
5,348.5
5,427.3
5,483.5
5,544.7
4,027.9
4,149.8
4,450.0
4,489.2
4,545.5
4,602.2
4,666.3
4,728.0
4,796.1
4,870.8
4,934.2
4,980.3
5,054.4
5,106.6
5,144.7
5,218.1
5,300.9
213.5
266.6
290.5
197.4
226.8
202.9
230.5
128.8
202.2
206.2
220.4
254.2
218.5
241.9
282.6
265.4
243.9
4,468.8
4,506.3
4,688.7
4,603.0
4,658.0
4,674.8
4,731.7
4,666.5
4,776.0
4,810.2
4,859.9
4,903.8
4,907.1
4,959.5
5,012.9
5,037.6
5,057.2
Includes personal (-onsuinption expenditures, interest paid by jwi-sons, and personal transfer
payments to rest of the world (net).
2
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the |>eriod.
16,896
17,405
18,478
18,225
18,513
18,589
18,892
18,699
19,200
19,452
19,700
19,965
20,068
20,306
20,555
20,727
20,911
Source: Department of Commerce {Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1995, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $9.8 billion (annual rate)
and net farm income fell $8.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS" (RATIO SCALE)
240
.„
200
v.
160
r~*~^"
^
^v^-'
1
,-f
"
'
r^"~—*r—^-^.
240
160
i \\
GROSS FARM Ir- COME
k
.
l\
40
\
\
\
<y
',
'
20
\'~
\
1
i N i
i '\ i
i ' \i
I ' '
i'
\J
10
'\
A
'
' \ 1
\ ' \l
^
/
\
~" \\ /'
\/
' *"• "^ /
^
,\
x
\
^f
/>
1
^
•*
/
\s
\f
60
\. s^\
v s/ \
<! 'NET FARM IN COME
40
20
10
i
7
1
1
1
1
!
1983
1982
1
1
!
1
1984
i i i
1985
i i i
1
1986
1987
!
1
1
!
!
1988
i i i
1989
i i l
1990
i i i
1991
i i i
i i l
1992
1993
" SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of AGRICULTURE
i i i
1994
2
1995
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Gross farm income
Period
Cash marketing receipts
Total '
Total
156.1
168.3
177.3
191.9
198.5
191.8
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
...
..
1995?
1994: I
II
III
IV
213.5
207.1
218.8
206.1
211.8
217.1
205.2
1995: I
II
Ill
TVf
. . .
200.5
203.0
203.1
215.1
.
1
205.3
135.4
141.8
151.2
160.8
169.4
167.8
171.3
177.1
179.7
185.6
178.8
169.7
185.8
184.4
180.5
180.9
199.6
181.4
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, arid nonmoney income furnished by farms.
~ Hrysiea) ehartgvs in (ind-of-y«ar inventory of m>{? ami livestock w>7mrKx)itit\s valjiei) at average prices during the year.
Livestock and
products
71.6
76.0
79.6
83.9
89.2
85.8
85.6
90.0
88.1
86.8
92.0
82.8
97.6
79.9
83.2
81.6
96.1
86.4
Crops
63.8
65.8
71.6
76.9
80.3
82.0
85.7
87.1
91.6
98.8
86.8
86.9
88.2
104.5
97.3
99.3
103.6
94.9
Value of
inventory
changes -
-2.2
-2.3
-4,1
3.8
3.5
-.2
4.2
-4.5
8.7
-3.4
10.6
10.0
7.8
6.3
-4.1
-3.9
-3.0
-2.5
Production
expenses
125.1
130.2
139.8
146.9
153.7
153.4
152.6
160.9
166.7
171.9
164.3
166.5
168.5
167.6
169.2
170.7
174.7
172.9
Net farm
income
31.1
38.0
37.5
45.0
44.8
38.4
47.9
42.1
46.7
35.3
54.5
39.6
43.3
49.5
36.1
32.4
40.4
32.3
NOTE.—Data include rmt Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.
Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1992 in chart do not reflect previous revision
annual data in table.
Sources: Department of Agriculture.
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the second quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $1.8 billion
(annual rate) and profits after tax fell $1.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS
650
r
SEASONAE1Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
600
-
/
550
-
/
500
J
450
7
400
_N,
y
350
/\
450
/
1
250
/~^
.
V
200
s
PRC)FITS AFTE
^/
/
s
/
--•">
~
—
~
. ^ .'•"•' * •"**
/
\_
— •<•"•
^.**'
50
r~
~x
-.--'
_/
\
1 1 1
1
1982
1983
1
i
1 1 1
1
1984
1985
I
!
/
N,n'
1986^
'N. — ••''" "*'
/•
JABILITY
l_\
\_.
,'
"\
UN 3ISTRIBUT
i i l
I
1987
1988
I >
\.x
•*
°*^
,'"
/
200
/—
S'-*
/
f
250
,•—
^
/
150
' \/
./'
ff
'"""•
/
100
/
~~ — "^
s
N\
300
<s ~~ ^
'V
\'
RTAX
TAX
-—^
350
-
V
s ""
/
-
/
/
^-N
400
J
/ —
s
s\
300
-
/
V
J
500
-
/
PROFITS BEFORE TAX
0
600
/-s
550
150
650
sJ
/\
/
-
r
\ f
\ t
100
-
50
D PROFITS
!
!
I
1
1989
1 I
1
1
1991
1990
1
1 1 1
i
1992
1993
!
1
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1
!
i
1994
1 I 1
i ii
1995
1996
0
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally acljusted amnial ratesl
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment '
Profits after tax
Domestic industries
Period
Nonfmancial
Total 2
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992 ....
1993
1994
1995
1990:
1991:
IV
IV
1992: IV
1993- I
II
Ill
IV
Profits
before
tax
Financial
:
Total '
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
Retail
272.9
325.0
330.6
358.2
378.2
398.9
457.7
517.9
570.8
356.5
375.2
420.5
231.3
274.3
272.6
292.5
309.5
334.0
388.1
453.7
494.1
282.5
303.6
361.2
37.1
43.0
53.1
68.6
87.4
83.7
91.0
94.4
119.1
70.5
87.6
83.1
194.2
231.2
219.6
223.8
222.1
250.3
297.2
359.3
375.0
212.1
216.1
278.1
85.0
115.1
109.3
112.3
92.7
96.3
109.7
142.7
145.7
108.4
83.8
105.1
16.7
19.3
20.4
17.2
20.6
23.0
25.5
34.5
29.6
16.9
17.0
28.3
23.9
19.6
20.7
20.6
26.1
32.2
39.2
42.2
38.7
22.8
28.6
37.3
293.6
354.3
348.1
371.7
374.2
406.4
464.3
531.2
598.9
376.7
382.8
420.3
127.1
137.0
141.3
140.5
133.4
143.0
163.8
195.3
218.7
139.7
135.2
149.7
166.5
217.3
206.8
231.2
240.8
263.4
300.5
335.9
380.2
237.1
247.6
270.6
107.0
116.8
138.9
151.9
163.1
169.5
197.3
211.0
227.4
152.0
165.3
180.4
59.5
100.5
67.9
79.4
77.7
93.9
103.2
124.8
152.8
85.0
82.2
90.3
-20.7
-29.3
-17.5
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-6.6
-13.3
-28.1
-20.3
-7.6
.2
422.4
442.0
465.9
500.5
347.0
375.7
393.1
436.8
85.7
88.1
88.8
101.3
261.2
287.6
304.3
335.4
90.4
108.4
106.0
134.0
17.9
28.6
27.0
28.7
36.3
38.1
42.4
39.8
437.0
457.6
458.0
504.5
151.5
162.6
159.3
181.7
285.6
295.0
298.6
322.8
190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9
95.3
99.2
98.4
119.9
-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0
1994:
I
471.6
516.2
534.3
549.6
407.0
452.4
469.9
485.5
64.9
97.8
108.4
106.4
342.1
354.6
361.5
379.0
145.3
134.2
142.8
148.4
28.8
39.5
34.3
35.4
38.3
43.2
43.7
43.6
475.5
528.0
550.8
572.4
171.4
192.8
203.4
213.5
304.1
333.3
347.4
358.8
204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5
99.7
124.5
134.9
140.3
-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8
1995:
I
542.6
547.3
597.9
595.3
467.5
468.2
527.1
513.7
114.3
112.6
130.4
119.3
353.2
355.6
396.7
394.4
134.7
137.8
153.2
157.3
29.7
26.4
31.2
31.2
36.0
36.6
42.5
39.6
594.5
589.6
607.2
604.2
217.3
214.2
224.5
218.7
377.2
375.3
382.8
385.5
221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7
155.5
150.8
154.3
150.8
-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8
624.8
631.0
541.6
553.8
134.9
135.8
406.7
418.0
161.3
37.5
41.7
642.2
644.0
233.4
236.7
408.8
407.4
239.9
243.1
168.9
164.3
-17.4
'-13.0
II
III
IV
II
in
IV
1996:
I
HP
1
2
Sw p, 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capita! consumption ailjustm«nts.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
:i
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
In the second quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)
dollars rose $7.4 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $10.2 billion. There was an increase of $7.2
billion in inventories following a decrease of $3.0 billion in the First quarter.
BILLIONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF CHAINED 11992) DOLLARS
1,100
1,100
SEASONARY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
r
1,000
900
S^
800
[\ _A^T^r\
V
800
-/
^
^ '-
GRC)SS PRIVA "E DOMES TIC
INVES1MENT
I
s
,
.•
*> "
—
s
N.
•V
___ s
700
s
^
/
XJ
500
900
\-s
\
600
1,000
^
/I
r
/
700
fV^— -/
*Y<
-*._.^ _^~ • .
600
-""'
"
500
•IONRESIC
/
F XED INVESTMENT
400
400
RESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT
\
300
300
\
• —...
i
200
^._.~
•-*,
200
s*
CHAN 3E IN BUS INESS
VENTORI
"
100
r --^
' •• -« - ^
s
0
f
1
-100
1982
1983
1
1
1984
100
\
\
\
\ w
,^
/
,'N
'
__ f
%, f
l i i
1 1 1
i i l
i i i
i
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
i i
l
!
i
1990
"" — **
i i i
1
1991
1992
!
!
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE
i l i
1993
1994
\— %
x
0
i i i
!
1995
1996
1
!
-100
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted aimual rates]
Change iu business
inventories
Fixed investment
Period
1987
1988 .
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1990199119921993-
..
IV
IV
IV
I
II
Ill
.
IV
1994- I
II
in
IV
1995- I
II
m
IV
1996- I
IP
. ...
Gross
private
domestic
investment
820.5
826.0
861.9
817.3
737.7
790.4
857.3
979.6
1,010.2
748.1
762.4
812.4
834.8
843.2
857.6
893.5
933.6
984.8
994.2
1,005.9
1,023.7
996.8
1,015.2
1,004.9
1,011.9
1,038.9
Nonresidential
Total
799.4
818.3
832.0
805.8
741.3
783.4
836.4
921.1
975.9
774.4
742.0
805.8
815.4
821.1
835.4
873.5
892.4
911.4
930.8
949.7
969.5
965.7
980.0
988.5
1,013.3
1,031.2
NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by ty|>e.
Because of the formula used for ealc-nlating real GDP, the eliained (1992) dollar estimates
for the detailed components do not (i(Ul to the ehained-doltar value of GDP or to any intermedi-
Total
542.4
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
573.9
539.5
569.1
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
628.5
639.5
660.5
679.7
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
750.9
Structures
195.9
196.8
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
166.3
168.8
181.1
196.0
171.4
165.6
167.0
164.8
165.1
168.2
163.0
169.0
169.1
174.3
178.5
180.0
182.8
183.2
186.6
186.1
Producers'
durable
equipment
Residential
346.9
369.2
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
427.6
484.1
534.5
257.6
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
200.3
202.4
236.7
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
281.3
377.9
368.1
403.5
410.5
421.7
428.2
449.8
466.4
471.1
492.5
506.5
527.2
531.7
537.4
541.4
558.3
566.5
Source: Department of (*ornrnerv.e, llureaii of Economic Analysis.
Total
26.2
11.6
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.3
19.1
58.9
33.1
-28.2
21.4
5.8
18.5
20.8
19.5
17.4
40.5
74.5
64.5
56.1
54.5
30.5
33.0
14.6
-3.0
7.2
Nonfarm
34.2
24.7
33.5
7.8
-1.2
1.9
26.4
46.8
37.2
-25.9
19.9
7.2
26.0
26.7
30.9
22.1
29.7
54.0
50.5
53.0
57.4
33.7
38.6
19.0
2.9
11.9
REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nonresident! al
Residential
Producers1 durable equipment
Structures
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
542.4
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
573.9
539.5
569.1
577 5
586.4
593.1
617.6
'6285
639.5
660.5
679.7
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
750.9
.
.
..
.
1990:
1991:
IV
IV
1992: IV
1993:
I
II
in
rv
1994:
I
II
in
IV
1995:
I
II
m
IV
1996: I
II'
1
2
:i
Total
nonresidential
Total '
195.9
196.8
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
166.3
168.8
181.1
196.0
171.4
165.6
167.0
164.8
165.1
168.2
163.0
169.0
169.1
174.3
178.5
180.0
182.8
183.2
186.6
186.1
Structures
Information processing
and related equipment
Nonresidential
buildings,
including
farm
Utilities
142.4
145.3
150.2
152.0
126.9
113.2
112.8
117.7
127.9
143.8
116.4
109.8
111.4
110.6
112.7
116.3
112.4
117.8
117.4
123.3
125.4
126.8
129.2
130.3
131.4
130.7
30.7
30.0
30.9
28.1
32.0
34.5
31.1
31.7
35.1
28.9
33.3
33.9
32.4
31.0
30.7
30.5
30.7
31.2
32.1
32.7
33.7
34.8
35.8
36.0
36,4
37.1
Mining
exploration,
shafts,
and
we s
Total1
15.5
15.8
13.9
16.1
15.7
13.3
14.8
12.6
11.2
16.3
14.4
13.7
15.2
15.2
14.6
14.2
13.4
13.3
12.2
11.5
12.5
10.7
11.0
10.5
12.8
12.8
346.9
369.2
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
427.6
484.1
534.5
377.9
368.1
403.5
410.5
421.7
428.2
449.8
466.4
471.1
492.5
506.5
527.2
531.7
537.4
541.4
558.3
566.5
Total
Computers
and
peripheral
equipment 2
Other
97.5
106.6
116.2
116.2
117.8
134.2
147.1
170.4
'201.1
115.7
122.5
138.9
139.5
142.2
150.7
156.0
161.2
166.6
171.6
182.4
189.1
199.7
201.4
214.4
225.5
233.7
21.0
24.0
29.4
29.4
32.4
43.9
56.2
69.3
91.5
29.9
36.6
47.5
51.1
52.9
58.3
62.5
64.5
67.1
69.3
76.3
80.2
88.2
91.9
105.6
117.2
125.5
80.2
85.7
88.1
88.2
85.9
90.2
91.5
102.6
114.2
87.1
86.2
91.5
88.6
89.6
93.1
94.6
97.8
100.8
103.6
108.3
111.5
115.1
114.0
116.2
118.1
119.9
Industrial
equipment
91.1
95.3
101.5
95.0
88.3
89.3
96.3
105.9
116.2
91.4
86.4
92.6
93.7
94.4
96.3
100.7
102.8
104.3
107.0
109.4
114.2
118.4
116.6
115.4
117.8
120.6
Transportation
and
related
equipment
82.1
87.1
78.9
81.2
81.7
86.2
97.5
111.7
118.1
82.8
81.6
91.5
93.0
99.5
95.0
102.7
109.0
105.3
115.8
116.6
121.9
114.9
120.3
115 .4
117.5
114.5
Total
residential3
Total
Single
family
Multifamily
Other
257.6
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
200.3
202.4
236.7
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
281.3
251.6
246.3
237.0
214.5
187.6
219.5
236.3
262.1
255.8
194.4
196.6
230.5
231.7
228.5
235.7
249.2
257.0
264.8
263.5
263.2
258.9
249.6
255.3
259.3
264.1
274.1
128.3
126.1
121.9
110.4
96.4
116.5
'127.1
140.5
127.7
97.6
105.1
121.6
124.9
122.5
126.3
134.4
140.3
143.5
140.8
137.4
133.0
123.0
125.8
129.1
132.5
137.4
28.3
23.4
23.3
19.7
15.4
13.1
10.4
13.5
17.6
18.6
14.2
11.5
10.3
10.0
10.7
10.6
11.2
12.8
14.5
15.6
16.8
17.4
17.8
18.5
19.2
21.0
94.8
96.8
91.8
84.4
75.7
89.9
98.8
108.1
110.9
78.1
77.3
97.4
96.5
96.0
98.7
104.1
1054
108.4
108.2
110.4
109.3
109.8
112.2
112.4
113.0
116.3
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not tukl to the chainod-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Sourav. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Kconotmc*. Analysis.
Includes other items, not shown separately.
Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only.
includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS
[Billions of dollars]
By industry
Period
1993 '
1994 a
1995:i
1996 4
1
Total
expenditures
489.7
549.9
594.5
603.4
Total
488.2
547.8
591.7
600.7
Mining
and
construction
31.2
36.1
36.0
33.6
Manufacturing
Total
134.1
153.3
172.3
184.8
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
66.4
78.9
91.4
100.2
Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Hlxpendi turns Survey.
2
Revised estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Final data
am scheduled for release in suimner 199(i.
3
Revised estimates collected from the March I99ti Investment Plans Survey. Final data will
Ix? available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
4
Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey.
10
67.7
74.4
80.9
84.6
Transportation
Communications
30.6
33.3
37.0
35.2
37.1
41.5
46.0
46.3
Utilities
41.3
42.2
42.8
40.6
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
60.3
68.9
75.1
71.9
40.2
46.8
57.3
57.7
Services
111.8
123.5
123.7
129.4
Serving
multiple
industries
1.7
2.2
1.5
1.3
Not
distributed
by
industry
1.4
2.2
2.8
2.7
NOTE.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996.
Data for 1993 from Annwd Capittd Kxpewliturex: 1<W3.
The Business Investment and Plans release has been discontinued effective with release of
the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business investment and plans will tx; available
annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
Sour(*: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In July, employment rose by 274,000 and unemployment rose by 237,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSO NS*
MILL ONS OF PERSONS *
138
138
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
134
134
~^-^_
— x-1
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
130
r"'—"
_)^~1
126
122
r"~"
~~""1
-./•^
+
-^^
126
***^
4-*S
-'•- "
**
122
-**
\\
118
114
130
118
CIVILIA M
EMPLOYM ENT
"
110
'
-
114
•*
110
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Unemployment
Civilian employment
Period
Civilian
noninstitutional
population
NSA
Civilian
labor
force
Nonagrieultural
Total
Agricultural
Total
Part time
for
economic
reasons *
Total
15
weeks
and
over
Percent -'
Not in
labor
force
Labor
force
participation
rate
Employment/
population
ratio
Unemployment
rate
1986 3
1987
1988
1989
19903
1991
1992
1993
19944
1995
180,587
182,753
184,613
186,393
189,164
190,925
192,805
194,838
196,814
198,584
117,834
119,865
121,669
123,869
125,840
126,346
128,105
129,200
131,056
132,304
109,597
112,440
114,968
117,342
118,793
117,718
118,492
120,259
123,060
124,900
3,163
3,208
3,169
3,199
3,223
3,269
3,247
3,115
3,409
3,440
106,434
109,232
111,800
114,142
115,570
114,449
115,245
117,144
119,651
121,460
5,345
5.122
4,965
4,657
4,950
5,874
6,240
6,230
4,414
4,279
8,237
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
2,232
1,983
1,610
1,375
1,525
2,357
3,408
3,094
2,860
2,363
62,752
62,888
62,944
62,523
63,324
64,578
64,700
65,638
65,758
66,280
65.3
65.6
65.9
66.5
66.5
66.2
66.4
66.3
66.6
66.6
60.7
61.5
62.3
63.0
62.8
61.7
61.5
61.7
62.5
62.9
7.0
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
1995- July
198,615
198,801
199,005
199,192
199,355
199,508
132,342
132,298
132,501
132,473
132,471
132,352
124,832
124,859
125,036
125,244
125,062
124,981
3,409
3,376
3,335
3,434
3,323
3,325
121,423
121,483
121,701
121,810
121,739
121,656
4,256
4,291
4,355
4,274
4,283
4,306
7,510
7,439
7,465
7.229
7,409
7,371
2,332
2,371
2,323
2.281
2,305
2,322
66,273
66,503
66,504
66,719
66,884
67,156
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.5
66.4
66.3
62.9
62.8
62.8
62.9
62.7
62.6
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.6
199,634
199,772
199,921
200,101
200,278
200,459
200,641
132,903
133,018
133,655
133,361
133,910
133,669
134,181
125,226
125,663
126,151
126,095
126,462
126,610
126,884
3,529
3,519
3,487
3,368
3,491
3.382
3,502
121.698
122,143
122,664
122,726
122,971
123,228
123,382
3,842
4,274
4,223
4,287
4.068
4,146
4,159
7,677
7,355
7,504
7,266
7,448
7.060
7,297
2,370
2,307
2,479
2,388
2,336
2,435
2,319
66,730
66,754
66,266
66,741
66,368
66,790
66.460
66.6
66.6
66.9
66.6
66.9
66.7
66.9
62.7
62.9
63.1
63.0
63.1
63.2
63.2
5.8
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.6
5.3
5.4
Oct
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Apr
Mav
June
July
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons inc.iude slack work, material shortages, inability to find
full time work, etc.
-Civilian Ja!x)r f»m> (or employment) its persist of civilian noni restitution si population; and
unemployment as percent of civilian labor force.
;f
Not strictly comparable with earlier data.
4
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods IHS
cause of a major rodesi^i of the household survey questionnaire.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In July, the unemployment rote rose to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent in June.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
10
1992
1992
1996
UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)
By sex and age
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990 ...
1991
1992
1993 2. .
1994
1995
1995: July
Aucr
Sept
Oct ...
Nov
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May
June
July ...
1
2
All
civilian
workers
7.0
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.6
5.3
5.4
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and over
6.1
5.4
4.8
4.5
5.0
6.4
7.1
6.4
5.4
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.5
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.7
6.2
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.3
5.9
5.4
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.7
5.1
4.8
4.8
4.7
5.0
4.6
4.9
By race
Both
sexes
16-19
years
White
18.3
16.9
15.3
15.0
15.5
18.7
20.1
19.0
17.6
17.3
17.8
17.6
17.7
17.1
17.8
18.0
18.2
16.6
17.5
16.7
16.4
15.9
16.4
Revised definition; for details, see Emphnfnumt awl Kamintjs, February 1994.
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.
12
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
6.1
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.8
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.7
Black
and
other
13.1
11.6
10.4
10.0
10.1
11.1
12.7
11.7
10.5
9.6
9.9
10.0
10.1
9.4
9.0
9.3
9.5
9.1
9.8
9.4
9.2
9.0
9.4
By selected groups
Black
Experienced
wage
and
salary
workers
14.5
13.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
12.5
14.2
13.0
11.5
10.4
10.8
11.0
11.1
10.0
9.6
10.2
10.6
10.3
11.1
10.5
10.2
10.1
10.5
6.6
5.8
5.2
5.0
5.3
6.6
7.2
6.6
5.9
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.2
Married
men,
spouse
present
4.4
3.9
3.3
3.0
3.4
4.4
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
Women
who
maintain
families
9.8
9.2
8.1
8.1
8.3
9.3
10.0
9.7
8.9
8.0
8.2
7.2
8.0
7.9
7.7
6.8
8.2
7.5
7.7
6.8
8.7
7.6
9.1
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over.
Source: Department of Lalior, Bureau of Ijalior Statistics.
Pull-time]
workers
Part-time
workers '
6.9
6.0
5.3
5.1
5.4
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.2
5.3
7.4
6.9
6.4
6.2
6.4
7.0
7.5
7.2
6.0
6.0
6.4
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.9
5.6
6.1
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
PROGRAMS
In Juiy, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14
weeks rose; the percentages for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over feli. The mean duration of unemployment
fell to 16.8 weeks and the median duration rose to 8.6 weeks.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
PERCENT DI57RI8UTION '
70
70
60
50
-
-
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
P-A
JOB
LOSERS-^
50
40
/
X
-NX-'
'\
REENTRANTS
20
JOB LEAVERS
\
10
-
NEW ENTRANTS
Illlllllll
1992
1994
* SEASONAiLY ADJUSTED
I/BEGINNING JANUARY 1994 JOB IOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPUTED TEMPOHARY JOBS
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Duration of unemployment
Period
Unemployment
(thousands)
Percent distribution
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution
State
programs
Number of weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Median
Job
losers '
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2
Weekly average, thousands
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 ;
1994 i
1995
1995- July
.
Sept
Oct
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
Julv
1
8,237
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,510
7,439
7,465
7,229
7,409
7,371
7,677
7,355
7,504
7,266
7,448
7,060
7,297
41.9
43.7
46.0
48.6
46,3
40.3
35.1
36.5
34.1
36.5
35.3
36.4
37.5
37.2
37.1
36.4
36.8
37.8
35.4
33.8
37.6
35.1
36.8
31.0
29.6
30.0
30.3
32.0
32.4
29.4
28.9
30.1
31.6
33.8
31.8
31.2
31.8
32.0
32.5
31.9
30.9
31.1
32.7
31.2
30.5
31.6
12.7
12.7
12.0
11.2
11.7
14.4
15.1
14.5
15.5
14.6
13.9
15.1
14.2
13.7
14.2
14.5
14.8
15.3
15.7
15.5
13.6
15.8
13.1
14.4
14.0
12.1
9.9
10.0
12.9
20.3
20.1
20.3
17.3
17.0
16.7
17.1
17.2
16.7
1K.6
16.5
16.0
17.8
18.0
17.6
18.6
18.5
Beginning January 1994, job losers and [X^rsons who completed temjwrary jobs,
'2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ox-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UOFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 199:1 Also includes Federal am! State extended I>erier1t programs. Does not include Federal supplemental
compensation or Kmi'rjjoncy Unemployment Compensation programs.
3
Data Iwgirming January 1994 are not- directly comparable with data for earlier periods.
15.0
14.5
13.5
11.9
12.0
13.7
17.7
18.0
18.8
16.6
16.5
16.3
16.3
16.2
16.3
16.2
16.0
16.6
17.3
17.4
16.8
17.6
16.8
6.9
6.5
5.9
4.8
5.3
6.8
8.7
8.3
9.2
8.3
8.7
8.4
8.1
8.1
8.0
8.1
8.3
8.0
8.3
8.8
8.3
8.1
8.6
48.9
48.0
46.1
45.7
48.1
54.4
56.1
54.2
47.7
46.9
47.0
46.5
45.9
47.5
46.9
46.9
47.6
48.1
47.4
50.0
46.0
48.6
46.1
12.3
13.0
14.7
15.7
14.8
11.6
10.4
10.9
9.9
11.1
11.2
11.6
11.7
10.5
11.5
11.9
11.5
10.0
10.4
9.7
9.0
9.6
10.3
26.2
26.6
27.0
28.2
27.4
24.8
23.8
24.6
34.8
34.1
34.3
34.0
34.2
34.4
33.7
33.2
32.5
33.7
34.4
32.8
37.8
34.3
34.9
12.5
12.4
12.2
10.4
9.8
9.2
9.7
10.3
7.6
7.8
7.6
7.8
8.1
7.7
7.9
8.1
8.5
8.2
7.9
7.6
7.2
7.5
8.6
2,643
2,300
2,081
2,158
2,522
3,342
3,245
2,751
2,670
2,574
2,683
2,634
2,632
2,678
2,652
2,625
2,655
2,660
2,641
2,576
2,544
2,570
2.537
378
328
310
330
388
447
408
341
340
357
373
346
357
365
375
363
374
371
393
356
348
356
'335
2,739
2,369
2,135
2,205
2,575
3,406
3,348
2,845
2,739
2,636
2,635
2,461
2,197
2,293
2,422
2,669
3,499
3,333
3,161
2,934
2,352
2,383
2,550
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age Ifi years of age and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims).
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricuSfura! employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 193,000 in Ju!y.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
120
110
SERVICES
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
70
RETAIL TRADE .
60
GOVERNMENT "
50
II I II I II I I II I II
MANUFACTURING
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
30
20
CONSTRUCTION
A..
iTm
1995
1992
1994
1993
1995
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;' seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries
Goods-producing industries
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990 .. .
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995: July
Sept
Oct
MenDec
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
Julvf
Total
nonagricultural
employment
99,344
101,958
105,210
107,895
109,419
108,256
108,604
110,730
114,172
117,203
117,201
117,499
117,623
117,749
117,899
118,136
118,070
118,579
118,737
118,928
119,335
119,555
119,748
Manufacturing
Total2
24,533
24,674
25.125
25,254
24,905
23,745
23,231
23,352
23,908
24,206
24,171
24,179
24,176
24,151
24,133
24,160
24,112
24,254
24,196
24.209
24,262
24,278
24,279
Construction
4,810
4,958
5,098
5,171
5,120
4,650
4,492
4,668
4,986
5,158
5,146
5,164
5,187
5,200
5,211
5,223
5,234
5,349
5,340
5,353
5,384
5,406
5,431
Total
18,947
18,999
19,314
19,391
19,076
18,406
18,104
18,075
18,321
18,468
18,447
18,439
18,415
18,378
18,353
18,367
18,309
18,332
18,282
18,283
18,302
18,298
18.278
Durable
goods
11,195
11,154
11,363
11,394
11,109
10,569
10,277
10,221
10,448
10,654
10,647
10,653
10,648
10,631
10,628
10,667
10,643
10,659
10,623
10,654
10,679
10,694
10,687
Nondurable
goods
7,752
7,845
7,951
7,997
7,968
7,837
7,827
7,854
7,873
7,814
7,800
7,786
7,767
7,747
7,725
7,700
7,666
7,673
7,659
7,629
7,623
7,604
7,591
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nona£ncultura establishments
) received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Exe. udcs
prietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personne of the Armed Forces. Total
his table not comparable with estimates of nona£nc.ultnra] employment of the civilian H!XH-e. shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
eh count persons as employe,! when they are not at work l,ecause of in, ustrial disputes,
weather. eUr., even if they are not paid for the time off; arid wiich are based on a sample
14
Total
74,811
77.284
80,086
82,642
84,514
84,511
85,373
87,378
90,264
92,997
93,030
93,320
93,447
93,598
93,766
93,976
93,958
94,325
94,541
94,719
95,073
95,277
95,469
Transportation and
public
utilities
5,247
5,362
5,514
5,625
5,793
5,762
5,721
5,829
5,993
6,165
6,160
6,187
6,194
6,212
6,233
6,249
6,254
6,270
6,289
6,294
6,311
6,329
6,336
Wholesale
trade
5,761
5,848
6,030
6,187
6,173
6,081
5,997
5,981
6,162
6,412
6,427
6,437
6,451
6,465
6,478
6,498
6,512
6,529
6,548
6,550
6,567
6,577
6,589
Retail
trade
17,880
18,422
19,023
19,475
19,601
19,284
19,356
19,773
20,507
21,173
21.196
21,225
21,258
21,263
21.300
21,334
21,268
21,340
21,343
21,422
21,499
21,585
21,674
Finance,
insurance,
Services
and real
estate
6,273
6,533
6,630
6,668
6,709
6,646
6,602
6,757
6,896
6,830
6,821
6,833
6,842
6,859
6,871
6,887
6,894
6,919
6,932
6,942
6,964
6,968
6,987
22,957
24,110
25,504
26,907
27,934
28,336
29,052
30,197
31,579
33,107
33,106
33,269
33,377
33,460
33,546
33,661
33,694
33,902
34,035
34,114
34,274
34.364
34^392
Government
Total
16,693
17,010
17,386
17,779
18,304
18,402
18,645
18,841
19,128
19,310
19,320
19,369
19,325
19,339
19,338
19,347
19,336
19,365
19,394
19,397
19,458
19,454
19,491
Federal
2,899
2,943
2,971
2,988
3,085
2,966
2,969
2,915
2,870
2,822
2,825
2,822
2,812
2,801
2,796
2,790
2,783
2,780
2,780
2,777
2,776
2,756
2,753
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job
are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where
persons are counted oniy once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the lalx>r force.
- Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS. AND WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTUHAL INDUSTRIES
| For production or non-supervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted |
Average weekly hours
Average gross hourly earnings
Total
private
nonagricultural!
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 ...
1995
. ..
. . .
1995: July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996- Jan
Peb
Mar
Jiilv**
Total
Average gross weekly earning
Total >rivate
nonagrieultural '
Manufacturing
Overtime
Current
dollars
Total mvate
nonagricultural l
1982
dollars'2
Manufacturing
Percent change from
a year earlier, total
private nonagricultural :i
Current dollars
Current
dollars
1982
dollars2
Manufacturing
Construction
Ifctail
trade
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
34.8
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.5
34.3
34.4
34.5
34.7
34.5
40.7
41.0
41.1
41.0
40.8
40.7
41.0
41.4
42.0
41.6
3.4
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.4
$8.76
8.98
9.28
9.66
10.01
10.32
10.57
10.83
11.12
11.44
$7.81
7.73
7.69
7.64
7.52
7.45
7.41
7.39
7.40
7.40
$9.73
$304.85
312.50
322.02
334.24
345.35
353.98
363.61
373.64
385.86
394.68
$271.94
269.16
266.79
264.22
259.47
255.40
254.99
254.87
256.73
255.29
$396.01
9.91
10.19
10.48
10.83
11.18
11.46
11.74
12.07
12.37
406.31
418.81
429.68
441.86
455.03
469.86
486.04
506.94
514.59
$466.75
480.44
495.73
513.17
526.01
533.40
537.70
553.63
573.00
585.10
$176.08
178.70
183.62
188.72
194.40
198.48
205.06
209.95
216.46
221.47
1.9
2.5
3.0
3.8
3.3
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.3
2.3
0.3
-1.0
-.9
-1.0
-1.8
-1.6
_ 2
-.0
.7
-.6
34.5
34.4
34.4
34.5
34.4
34.3
33.8
34.5
34.5
34.3
34.2
34.7
34.3
41.3
41.5
41.5
41.4
41.5
41.2
40.0
41.4
41.4
41.5
41.7
41.9
41.6
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.4
11.47
11.46
11.52
11.55
11.59
11.61
11.62
11.65
11.68
11.72
11.73
11.82
11.80
7.41
7.39
7.42
7.42
7.44
7.44
7.41
7.42
7.40
7.40
7.38
7.43
7.41
12.39
12.42
12.43
12.46
12.49
12.51
12.63
12.56
12.55
12.74
12.72
12.78
12.83
395.72
394.22
396.29
398.48
398.70
398.22
392.76
401.93
402.96
402.00
401.17
410.15
404.74
255.80
254.34
255.34
255.93
255.91
255.11
250.48
255.84
255.36
253.79
252.47
257.96
254.07
511.71
515.43
515.85
515.84
518.34
515.41
505.20
519.98
519.57
528.71
530.42
535.48
533.73
588.17
585.92
587.08
593.54
589.76
583.28
582.55
604.63
589.79
594.39
583.31
596.37
599.46
222.05
221.56
223.49
223.49
224.84
224.15
221.59
226.08
227.73
225.94
228.38
231.42
229.25
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.0
2.3
2.1
.2
2.7
3.1
2.6
3.6
4.5
2.5
-.0
-.1
-.1
-.6
1
;1
Also indudes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index ft>r urban wajw earners and
clerical workers (CP1-W) (on a 19S2=100 base).
2
1
-A
-2.5
.0
.3
O
.6
1.7
-.4
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Lalx>r, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY
Index (June 1989 = 10(1)
Percent change fi-om
8 months earlier
Total
compensation
Period
Wages arid
salaries
Benefits '
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
12 montiis earlier
Benefits '
Total
compensation
Wages arid
salaries
Benefits'
Not seasonally adjusted
198619871988iqgq.
199019911992199319941995-
Dec
Deo
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec7"
90.1
93.1
97.6
102.3
107.0
111.7
115.6
119.8
123.5
126.7
.
.
91.1
94.1
98.0
102.0
106.1
110.0
112.9
116.4
119.7
123.1
87.5
90.5
96.7
102.6
109.4
116.2
322.2
128.3
133.0
135.9
3.2
3.3
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
3.5
3.6
3.1
2.6
Seasonally adjusted
1993- Mar
Sept
Dec
1994- Mar
Sept
Dec
1995- Mar
Sept
Dec
1996- Mar
!
...
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.5
124.4
125.3
]26.1
126.9
127.8
128.8
113.9
114.6
115.6
116.5
117.2
118.1
119.0
119.7
120.6
121.5
122.4
123.2
124.5
125.6
Employer costs for employee l>enefits.
NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the Huinge in the cost, of la!>or
from the influence of employment shifts antorifj occupations ai d industries.
124.8
126.5
127.7
128.9
130.3
131.5
132.9
133.6
133.8
134.6
135.4
136.1
136.0
136.9
1.0
.9
.8
.8
.8
.8
.8
.6
.7
.7
.6
.7
.7
.8
3.2
3.4
3.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
2.6
3.1
2.8
2.8
3.4
6.9
6.1
66
6.2
5.2
5.0
3.7
2.2
Not seasonally adjusted
0.8
.6
.9
.8
.6
.8
.8
.6
.8
.7
.7
.7
1.1
.9
1.6
1.4
.9
.9
1.1
.9
1.1
.5
.1
.6
.6
.6
i
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.7
3.1
3.1
2.9
3.1
29
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.4
5.6
5.8
5.4
5.0
4.4
3.9
4.0
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.7
Data exclude farm and household worker's.
Source: Department of Ijalx>r, Bureau of Labor Statistic
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of
all persons
Period
Business
sector
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993r
1994r
1995 r
1993- \r
IP
IIPr
TV
1994- lrr
II
IIPr
IV
1995- Ir
II '
HP
IV'
1996- lr
UP
c
Nonfann
business
sector
Output'
Business
sector
Hours of all
persons2
Nonfarm
business
sector
94.2
94.1
94.6
95.3
96.1
96.7
100.0
100.2
100.7
101.2
94.9
94.6
95.2
95.7
96.2
96.9
100.0
100.2
100.7
101.3
88.6
91.1
94.6
97.8
98.7
96.9
100.0
102.7
107.0
109.6
88.7
91.4
95.1
98.1
98.8
97.1
100.0
102.9
107.0
109.9
100.2
99.8
100.0
100.9
100.1
99.7
100.1
100.8
101.6
102.2
103.3
104.7
100.4
100.5
101.1
101.2
104.9
106.7
107.8
108.8
100.7
101.2
101.6
101.5
100.2
100.5
101.0
101.2
100.8
101.3
101.8
101.5
101.4
102.1
102.8
104.5
104.9
106.7
107.7
108.7
108.8
109.0
110.3
110.4
102.0
102.1
102.0
102.0
111.2
112.4
111.4
112.6
109.0
109.2
110.6
110.7
Business
sector
Compensation per
hour 3
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Real compensation
per hour 4
Business
sector
Unit labor
costs
Nonfarm
business
sector
Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
\
77.3
99.0
94.0
77.0
93.5
98.5
80.2
99.1
96.8
79.9
96.5
98.7
83.6
100.0
99.2
83.5
99.0
99.9
102.5 102.5
97.1
85.9
97.1
85.8
102.6 102.7
90.6
97.3
90.7
97.4
100.2 100.2
97.9
95.1
95.1
97.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.5 102.8 102.5 102.3
99.3
99.5
106.2 106.3 104.5 104.3
98.8
99.0
108.3 108.4
99.6
99.7
108.2 108.2
101.3 101.4 101.7 101.5
99.5
99.6
102.0
102.3
99.3
99.6
102.3
102.6
102.9 103.2 102.8 102.5
99.3
99.6
103.0
103.6 103.9
98.9
103.3
99.3
104.5 104.6 104.0 103.7
99.1
99.4
98.8
106.1 106.1 104.2 104.0
99.0
106.6
104.6
98.4
104.7
98.6
106.7
107.4 107.5 105.6 105.5
98.8
98.9
99.0
106.6 106.5
108.1
108.1
99.1
107.7 107.8 107.8 107.7
99.3
99.4
108.8
108.5 108.6 108.8
99.8
99.8
108.8 109.0 110.0 109.9
100.3 100.2
109.1 109.3 110.8 110.7
100.2 100.2
111.8
100.1
110.1
111.9
110.4
100.3
Business
sector
Implicit price
deflator 5
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
81.7
84.9
88.3
90.0
94.4
98.3
100.0
102.3
103.8
107.0
81.5
84.7
87.8
89.7
94.2
98.1
100.0
102.1
103.7
106.7
81.6
83.8
86.8
90.5
94.0
97.7
100.0
102.5
104.7
107.1
101.5
102.6
102.9
102.4
101.4
102.4
102.4
102.2
101.7
102.3
102.7
103.3
81.4
83.5
86.4
90.0
93.8
97.6
100.0
102.5
104.9
107.2
101.8
102.4
102.7
103.3
103.6
103.6
103.6
104.4
103.4
103.5
103.5
104.3
103.9
104.4
105.1
105.6
103.9
104.5
105.3
105.7
105.8
106.5
107.1
108.4
105.6
106.3
106.8
108.2
106.4
106.9
107.5
107.8
106.5
107.1
107.5
107.8
108.7
109.6
108.6
109.6
108.2
108.8
108.1
108.7
2.5
4.0
3.7
2.1
5.0
4.2
1.9
2.1
1.5
3.0
2.2
2.7
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.9
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.6
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.2
3.8
2.1
1.2
2.5
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1993- lr r
H
HP
IV '
1994- P
II "
IIP
rv>
1995- lr
IP
HPr
W
1996- P
HP
1
2.5
-.2
.5
.8
.8
.6
3.4
.2
.5
.5
-3.5
-1.6
.7
3.7
2.6
-.3
.6
.5
.5
.7
3.2
.2
.5
.7
3.2
2.9
3.8
3.4
.9
-1.8
3.2
2.7
4.2
2.5
3.4
3.0
4.1
3.2
.7
-1.8
3.0
2.9
4.0
2.7
0.7
3.0
3.3
2.5
.1
-2.3
_ 2
2.5
3.7
2.0
0.8
3.2
3.5
2.6
.2
-2.5
-.2
2.8
3.5
2.0
5.2
3.8
4.5
2.8
5.7
4.8
5.2
2.5
1.9
3.6
5.2
3.7
4.3
2.7
5.5
4.9
5.2
2.3
2.1
3.7
3.3
.2
.3
-2.0
.3
.6
2.1
-.5
-.6
.7
3.3
.1
.1
-2.1
.1
.7
2.1
-.5
.8
2.6
4.0
4.0
1.9
4.9
4.2
1.7
2.3
1.4
3.1
-3.7
-1.8
1.6
2.7
-.9
2.7
4.1
5.5
2.4
4.2
2.3
2.7
1.3
2.1
1.7
1.9
-1.0
.1
-1.3
-1.6
-.8
-.1
-1.2
5.6
4.3
1.2
-1.8
5.2
4.0
.1
Q
.O
3.5
2.5
1.3
2.4
-2.0
1.0
2.0
.9
.8
7.0
4.2
4.0
3.6
6.3
1.9
3.2
2.9
4.6
2.5
2.7
2.9
5.9
2.1
3.1
1.9
2.6
1.9
1.8
-1.9
.6
2.2
.6
2.6
.8
2.3
3.4
2.8
1.4
2.1
3.9
.6
-1.8
-1.4
1.2
.7
-1.2
-1.6
1.6
4.6
.2
.2
2.8
4.8
.3
.1
2.9
2.4
1.8
2.7
2.0
2.5
2.2
2.9
1.9
-1.9
1.9
1.7
-.6
2.0
.5
-1.6
2.0
2.0
-1.1
1.8
-.1
-1.2
2.5
3.0
6.5
1.7
6.9
4.1
3.8
.3
.7
4.8
.5
3.0
4.4
.6
.9
5.0
.3
2.7
4.2
2.3
-1.1
3.0
1.1
1.0
3.9
2.2
-1.0
2.9
1.5
1.0
4.3
3.6
4.6
3.9
4.4
3.0
4.1
3.7
4.6
4.0
4.1
3.3
3.7
.7
1.2
1.8
1.9
.8
1.1
1.9
1.6
.0
-.1
5.6
2.7
2.2
5.0
1.0
3.6
5.4
2.6
1.9
5.2
1.5
3.8
3.0
2.2
2.0
1.0
1.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
1.7
.9
1.4
2.2
Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for
the self-employed.
4
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CP1-U).
5
Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index.
2
16
0
9
.2
ij
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding j>eriod and are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Data beginning 1993 reflect the "limited" annual revision of GDI* and related series released
August 1, 1996. GDP data for 1996: II shown elsewhere in this issue of Economic Ii\dicfit0rs
were released August 29, 1996.
Source: Department of Ijabor, Bureau of Ijabor Statistics.
AND
ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose in July; capacity utilization fell.
INDEX, 1987= 100* (RATIO SCALE)
150
INDEX, 1987 - 100' (RATIO SCALE)
170
FINAL PRODUCTS
160
BUSINESS
150
tUUIFMENT
140
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
.f~^~
-i^--—
.
__^- '
130
^_^-^~
120
-""
100
/^"
r~~^^
^
sS^"
1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 H i n1 1 1
1 1 M 1 1 II
I 11
1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 II
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II I 1
110
^~ ^f- — *"
CONSUMER
GOODS
100
MANUFACTURING
90
DURABLE
"'"•••v
120
"/
110
NONDURABLE
100
"x
AND SPACE
EQUIPMENT
's
/'
"""
60
UTILITIES AND MINING
Mill
130
\
120
s*
110
I I M H 1 1 1 11
1
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY)
s
•*•"
I 1 1 it 1 1 1 1 1 1
1993
1992
/
.-— y
1994
!
V
,'X'"-"1|J1 - T"
^^^— •V
90
.,/V1
i l l 11
PERCENT-
,»^»*N
1 1 1 I l l l MM
1992
1996
1995
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Manufacturing
Percent change '
Period
Index,
1987=100
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
.
..
....
1995- July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
. . .
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
June r
July?
1
Permit changes based on unrounded indexes.
From
preceding
month
95.3
100.0
104.4
106.0
106.0
104.2
107.7
111.5
118.1
121.9
From
year
earlier
Nondurable
Mining
Utilities
Total
industry
Manufacturing
94.3
100.0
104.7
106.4
106.1
103.8
108.2
112.3
119.7
123.9
93.9
100.0
106.6
108.6
107.4
104.1
109.3
115.6
125.8
132.5
94.9
100.0
102.3
103.7
104.4
103.4
106.7
108.6
113.0
114.3
101.0
100.0
101.3
100.0
102.0
100.2
98.9
98.0
100.3
99.9
96.3
100.0
105.0
108.7
109.9
112.3
111.9
116.3
117.9
122.0
79.2
81.5
83.7
83.7
82.1
79.2
80.3
81.4
83.9
83.8
79.1
81.6
83.6
83.2
81.3
78.0
79.5
80.6
83.3
83.0
123.3
124.2
124.9
124.4
124.5
124.8
131.5
133.2
134.4
133.5
134.3
134.8
114.3
114.3
114.4
114.3
113.7
113.8
100.7
100.0
100.0
98.2
98.3
98.1
122.7
128.8
122.7
121.6
125.4
125.1
83.3
83.9
83.7
83.0
83.0
82.9
82.4
82.7
82.8
82.2
82.0
81.9
124.5
126.2
125.2
126.5
127.2
128.1
128.6
134.9
137.5
135.6
138.3
139.2
141.2
142.0
113.1
113.8
113.6
113.5
114.0
113.8
113.8
97.1
98.0
101.1
100.4
100.2
101.9
101.6
125.6
126.6
128.0
126.4
127.9
125.9
123.6
82.4
83.3
82.6
83.0
83.2
83.4
83.2
81.4
82.3
81.3
81.9
82.0
82.3
82.3
0.1
1.0
.3
.2
2.7
3.2
3.2
1.9
1.7
1.1
122.5
124.2
123.6
124.5
125.2
126.0
126.2
-.2
1.3
-.5
.8
.5
.6
.1
.6
2.0
1.4
2.6
3.2
3.7
3.8
.t)
Durable
Total
0.9
4.9
4.4
1.5
.0
-1.8
3.4
3.5
5.9
3.2
121.5
122.7
122.8
122.2
122.6
122.8
.1
Capacity utilization
rate, percent2
Industry production indexes, 1987=100
Total industrial production
a
Output as percent of capacity.
Sou re*: Board of Governors of the Federal Ifcserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1987 = 100; montlJy data seasonally adjusted]
Materials
Products
Final products
Intermediate products
Coiisumer goods
Equipment
Period
Total
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995- July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Apr r
June''
July/5
1
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total >
Business
Defense
and
space
equipment
Total
Construction
supplies
Business
supplies
Total
Energy
95.7
100.0
104.8
106.8
107.0
105.4
108.7
112.7
118.3
121.4
96.8
100.0
102.9
104.0
103.4
103.0
106.0
109.5
113.7
115.1
94.5
100.0
104.6
106.6
102.3
96.0
103.0
113.3
124.2
124.2
97.6
100.0
102.4
103.2
103.8
105.0
106.9
108.6
111.2
112.9
94.5
100.0
107.6
110,9
112.1
108.8
112.5
117.5
125.3
131.4
93.1
100.0
110.7
115.5
116.9
115.9
123.4
131.8
144.9
155.7
96.0
100.0
99.7
100.1
98.8
90.8
84.8
79.3
71.9
65.9
91.9
100.0
101.8
102.0
101.2
96.8
99.3
101.8
107.3
109.0
93.8
100.0
101.5
100.5
98.2
91.6
95.2
98.4
106.2
108.2
90.7
100.0
102.0
103.0
103.2
100.2
102.0
104.1
108.2
109.6
95.9
100.0
105.0
106.7
106.8
105.5
109.7
113.8
122.0
127.4
99.5
100.0
102.2
103.1
104.2
104.4
103.7
103.5
105.3
106.6
121.2
122.4
122.6
121.3
121.9
122.1
114.6
115.9
116.0
114.9
115.9
115.7
121.4
124.0
125.8
123.4
124.9
126.3
113.0
113.9
113.7
112.9
113.8
113.2
131.6
132.9
133.1
131.5
131.4
132.3
155.7
157.5
158.2
156.5
156.9
158.4
66.5
66.1
65.2
64.4
62.9
62.0
108.5
109.4
109.5
109.2
109.3
110.1
107.3
107.0
108.4
108.3
108.7
110.5
109.5
111.0
110.3
109.9
109.9
110.0
126.8
128. 1
128.1
128.1
128.4
128.4
107.5
108.5
105.8
105.5
105.7
106.0
121.9
124.5
123.4
124.8
125.0
125.5
125.9
114.6
116.6
115.3
115.9
116.1
116.1
116,5
120.3
125.1
119.3
125.5
126.1
130.1
133.5
113.3
114.5
114.4
113.6
113.7
112.7
112.3
133.7
137.3
136.5
139.2
139.4
140.8
141.2
160.5
164.8
162.7
166.3
166.2
168.5
169.3
61.6
63.1
64.2
64.0
64.4
63.8
63.6
108.5
109.3
109.6
108.6
109.7
110.5
110.2
107.2
109.3
111.5
109.2
110.4
112.8
112.8
109.6
109.5
108.6
108.4
109.4
109.2
108.7
128.5
129.4
129.1
130.3
131.4
132.5
132.6
105.9
106.1
108.2
107.0
107.5
107.8
106.9
Includes oil arid R«S well drilling: and manufactured homos, not shown separately.
[1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures
Durable manufactures
Primary metals
Period
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995. July
Sept
Oct
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
May
July/*
. .
Industrial
machinery and
equipment
Electrical
maehiiiery
Transportation
equipment
Total
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
93.7
100.0
108.7
107.2
106.5
98.6
101.9
107.7
116.4
119.2
90.8
100.0
112.7
111.2
111.5
100.5
104.7
111.9
119.3
122.4
93.8
100.0
104.2
102.8
99.5
94.5
99.0
103.1
110.5
113.9
90.3
100.0
113.0
117.3
117.6
114.7
124.0
138.1
157.7
177.8
94.3
100.0
108.5
111.0
111.4
113.9
123.5
134.1
154.3
174.9
96.9
100.0
105.2
109.6
107.0
101.1
104.8
109.2
115.3
113.3
98.5
100.0
105.7
106.9
101.0
94.4
107.4
122.9
141.2
141.9
95.1
100.0
100.1
99.4
97.1
90.2
95.2
97.1
104.0
104.5
96.3
100.0
98.1
95.0
92.2
92.7
95.0
97.1
100.1
95.7
90.6
100.0
100.9
101.1
100.8
97.0
98.1
98.8
100.1
99.4
94.6
100.0
106.0
109.2
111.8
110.5
114.4
115.4
121.3
125.0
97.4
100.0
101.5
102.5
103.7
105.3
106,9
109.5
113.2
115.3
118.3
115.4
121.0
115.7
120.8
120.0
119.3
117.7
127.0
115.1
126.1
122.7
112.4
114.3
115.1
114.0
114.5
115.0
176.0
179.5
181.3
183.8
186.5
190.1
175.7
178.7
180.8
182.4
183.6
182.8
111.6
114.1
114.1
109.3
108.6
109.7
136.7
142.1
143.3
139.7
140.7
141.2
103.7
103.7
106.2
105.7
104.8
106.9
94.8
94.5
94.5
93.3
92.4
91.5
99.0
100.5
99.8
98.9
99.3
98.8
124.0
124.4
125.3
126.7
126.0
126.5
115.3
115.5
115.5
115.4
114.8
114.8
121.5
117.1
118.0
119.2
119.0
121.1
120.0
128.1
119.5
120.2
122.9
121.8
125.4
124.1
115.6
117.0
116.1
115.5
116.7
117.4
117.5
191.9
196.1
197.8
199.0
201.0
204.2
205.7
182.4
188,7
187.9
187,3
188.8
192.0
194.2
108.3
112.1
103.1
114.6
114.9
117.1
120.1
135.5
141.1
121.3
144.3
144.7
148.7
155.0
103.1
103.3
107.5
108.4
107.3
109.1
107.8
89.2
90.9
89.7
90.4
90.8
90.9
90.5
97.9
98.7
96.7
96.3
97.5
96.6
96.7
127.1
127.1
126.5
126.0
126.4
126.5
126.6
114.8
116.0
115.6
115.4
115.4
114.6
114.1
Soum;: lioarti of Governors of the Federal Ileserve System.
18
Iron
and
steel
Fabricated
metal
products
HEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts3
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Residential
Total
Total
New housing
units
1
Commercial
and industrial 2
Other
Federal
and
State
and
local
Total value
index
(1987=100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
Billions of dollars
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
429.9
441.6
455.6
469.8
468.5
424.2
452.1
482.7
527.1
547.1
345.3
351.0
360.9
371.6
361.1
314.1
336.2
362.6
400.0
410.2
187.1
194.7
198.1
196.6
182.9
157.8
187.8
210.5
238.9
236.6
105.5
104.4
109.6
118.0
119.4
93.7
82.2
84.4
93.3
107.0
133.2
139.9
138.9
139.2
128.0
110.6
129.6
144.1
167.9
162.9
53.2
52.0
53.2
57.1
58.8
62.6
66.2
67.7
67.8
66.6
84.6
90.6
94.7
98.2
107.5
110.1
115.8
120.2
127.1
136.9
96
100
101
105
95
89
97
105
114
118
Annual rates
1995- June
July
Sept
Oet
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
July
1,016
1,019
973
961
783
577
556
589
744
842
Annual rates
545.1
545.0
542.3
550,5
550.0
549.7
555.7
406.8
409.4
405.9
411.3
410.6
411.0
417.2
231.1
231.3
234.5
237.7
238.0
239.9
243.1
155.9
158.3
161.8
164.3
165.8
166.4
168.1
108.2
110.9
106.6
107.5
106.0
107.3
108.9
67.5
67.3
64.8
66.2
66.6
63.8
65.2
138.3
135.6
136.4
139.1
139.4
138.7
138.5
'122
'121
124
120
120
122
117
800
713
826
828
731
851
784
559.0
544.6
557.0
565.0
559.2
565.9
418.9
411.2
419.7
423.6
417.4
424.7
242.5
238.6
245.9
247.5
246.7
246.1
169.2
166.9
173.8
178.7
177.4
176.9
109.3
107.4
106.4
108.1
103.2
109.8
67.1
65.2
67.4
68.0
67.5
68.9
140.1
133.3
137.3
141.4
141.8
141.1
'120
113
'126
'127
'125
'120
118
697
615
750
708
807
723
628
1
Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.
2
Includes hotels and motels.
3
F.W. Dodge series.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division,
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes
New private housing units
Units started, by type of structure
Period
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1,805.4
1,620.5
1.488.1
1,376.1
1,192.7
1,013.9
1,199.7
1,287.6
1,457.0
1,354.1
1 unit
1,179.4
1,146.4
1,081.3
1,003.3
894.8
840.4
1,029.9
1,125.7
1,198.4
1,076.2
2-4 units
5 or more
units
84.0
65.3
58.8
55.2
37.5
35.6
30.7
29.4
35.0
33.7
542.0
408.7
348.0
317.6
260.4
137.9
139.0
132.6
223.5
244.1
Units
authorized
1,769.4
1,534.8
1,455.6
1,338.4
1,110.8
948.8
1,094.9
1,199.1
:
n,371.6
1,332.5
Units
completed
Homes
sold
Homes for
sale at end
of period!
Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
1,756.4
1,668.8
1,529.8
1,422.8
1,308.0
1,090.8
1,157.5
1,192.7
1,346.9
1,312.6
750
671
676
650
534
509
610
666
670
667
357
366
368
365
321
284
265
293
337
372
7.3
7.7
7.7
2
7.4
7.2
7.4
7.4
2
7.3
7.4
7.6
1,256
1,332
1,247
1,267
1,320
1,360
1,225
724
782
707
684
673
679
683
743
784
713
'740
739
726
783
347
344
349
350
360
368
372
370
355
368
'369
365
363
365
7.7
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1995- June
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996: Jan
Feb
May'
July*7
1,301
1,450
1,401
1,401
1,351
1,458
1,425
1,453
1,514
1,439
1,511
1,478
1,474
1,455
1,036
1,125
1,135
1,130
1,109
1,129
1,150
1,146
1,183
1,163
1,209
1,144
1,201
1,133
35
39
28
39
31
32
29
20
33
25
53
49
42
34
1
Seasonally adjusted.
- Revised series Ixiginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993
data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.
3
The 1994 total based on 17,000 pmnit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units.
230
286
238
232
211
297
246
287
298
251
249
285
231
288
1,290
1,358
1,379
1,427
1,393
1,450
1,487
1,378
1,417
1,423
1,459
1,452
1,415
1,457
1,403
1,328
1,391
1,350
1,392
1,398
7.7
7.7
7.9
7.8
NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For «>ther data shown, units
authorized are for 17,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In June, manufacturing and trade safes fail 0.4 percent and inventories rose $0.2 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales rose 0.1 percent in July following a decline of 0.5 percent in June.
BILLIONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1,200
400
1,100
1,000
900
rT l
^
_-
800
MANUFACTURING AND
TRADE INVENTORIES
4-'i \ -r~~
i
700
600
--— *""•"""
—
MANUFACTURING
AND TRADE SALES
<00
RATIO*
400
1.80
INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
1.70
1.60
300
1.50
1.40
200 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i l l 1 1 n i i 1 1 i 1 1
1992
1994
1993
1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 II
1996
1995
MANUFACTURING
AND TRADE
1.30
1992
111 III 111
1993
1994
* SEASONAilY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufacturing and
trade1
Period
Sales2
Inventories3
1995
1996
COUNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Wholesale
Retail
Sales2
Inventories3
Durable
goods
stores
Total
Inventory-sales
ratio4
Inventories 3
Sales2
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
trade1
96,527
102,355
106,594
115,887
118,668
124,236
129,046
133,967
140,161
142,516
142,327
142,231
143,374
143,104
144,059
144,022
142,516
143,054
143,249
142,494
142,907
142,774
142,634
1.55
1.50
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.53
1.48
1.45
1.41
1.43
1.43
1.45
1.43
1.44
1.45
1.44
1.42
1.44
1.42
1.42
1.41
1.39
1.40
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
199]
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995- Juue r
July
Sept
Oct
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
May
Julyp
]
430,419
457,735
497,157
527,039
545,909
542,815
567,176
595,240
637,561
679,700
681,343
'676,569
684,477
686,272
685,660
690,243
695,289
690,692
699,208
700,253
709,541
715,130
712,209
662,738
709,846
767,226
815,486
840,428
834,281
842,137
874,515
931,702
989,839
973,914
977,660
982,154
986,369
992,265
993,644
989,839
995,352
996,008
994,010
998,430
996,984
997,226
114,960
122,968
134,521
143,760
149,506
148,306
154,150
161,681
172,973
187,387
188,359
187,155
187,953
188,874
189,643
191,574
194,901
192,878
194,053
195,379
197,507
198,258
198,812
120,803
153,574
163,903 128,442
178,801 138,017
187,009
146,581
195,550 153,718
200,062 154,661
207,663 162,632
215,878
172,924
234,893 185,936
254,616 195,068
249,252 196,107
251,897 '195,513
252,209 196,716
253,111 196,644
254,738 196,193
254,727 197,914
254,616 199,104
256,258 199,129
255,569 203,392
256,444 204,228
259,592 204,031
258,834 205,669
258,735 '204,546
204,689
See page 21 for manufacturing.
Annua! data arc averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month.
2
20
75,746
45,057
80,453
47,989
52,430
85,587
91,818
54,763
97,981
55,736
54,165
100,497
58,634 103,999
64,795 108,129
73,042
112,894
78,018 117,050
78,361
117,746
'78,125 '117,388
79,527 117,189
78,711 117,933
117,033
79,160
80,296
117,618
118,252
80,852
80,623
118,506
120,107
83,285
120,120
84,108
82,794 121,237
84,053
121,616
'83,399 '121,147
83,094 121,595
3
186,510
207,836
219,047
237,234
239,773
243,275
251,994
267,916
290,602
302,879
300,369
299,041
302,700
303,299
306,224
307,265
302,879
304,370
304,824
302,153
303,397
303,930
304,623
89,983
105,481
112,453
121,347
121,105
119,039
122,948
133,949
150,441
160,363
158,042
156,810
159,326
160,195
162,165
163,243
160,363
161,316
161,575
159,659
160,490
161,156
161,989
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
4
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly rati(
Source: Department, of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
1.56
1.55
1.54
1.58
1.55
1.54
1.52
1.51
1.50
1.54
1.53
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.56
1.55
1.52
1.53
1.50
1.48
1.49
1.48
1.49
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In July, manufacturers' shipments, Inventories, and orders all rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
320 - SHIPMENTs
,
280
"
240 ^—'
. -,*—
180 - INVENTOKlbb
140
00 —_
160
20
p-—
^*~^
\
TOTAL
^-^~
200
.
~\
^—
TOTAL
80
DL RABLEGOOC S
\
160
i
r— —
•- —
40
,--•
•%•*'*
\
RABLEGOOD
•00
120
60
NONC lURABLEGOC DS
80 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 11 1 1! 11
Mill
1 1 1 1 11 M 1 11
INN
"V"
11111 1 1111
20
sIDURABLE GC
v--"
80
| 1 1 M 11 I 1 1I
BILUCINS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
320 _ NEWORD FP,S
280
TOTAL
^
1
_
240
^-S
^^^^
RAHO
2.00
CHJRABLEGOCOS
•».x
160
J* s
,*»'^*
3.'&*ti
,-vv.^.-'
x
"•"'
1 1 11 E11 11 11
1992
1 1 1111 1 M 1
1993
•• ^ *
-'-—"'
HIM
11 111
1994
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
1.80
N , — '"
1.60
NONDURABLE GOCDOS
80
1 1 M 1 11 1 i ! 1
/^»"
200
120
1 1 1 1 1 ! iu1 1
'
Hill
1 11 M
1995
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1.40
~^-v~^•X-^.^ _—+~—*
^^
1.20
1 1 1 111 1 11 ! 1
1996
1992
i l 1 11 11111 1111 1111 111 1 111 1 11 1i 11
1994
1995
1993
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE
r^
M !!1 i 1 i !I !
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Manufacturers' shipments '
Manufacturers' inventories2
Manufacturers' new orders '
Durable goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Total
Capital
Nondurable
goods
goods
industries,
nondefense
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders2
Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio3
Millions of dollars, seiisonally adjusted, except as noted
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 ... .
1992
1993 . .
1994
1995
1995- July
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1996:
Jail
Peb
Mar
Apr
Julyp
194,657
206,326
224,619
236,698
242,686
239,847
250,394
260,635
278,652
297,244
103,238
108,128
118,458
123,158
123,776
121,000
128,489
135,886
148,916
159,215
91,419
98,198
106,161
113,540
118,910
118,847
121,905
124,749
129,736
138,029
322,654
338,107
369,378
391,243
405,105
390,944
382,480
390,721
406,207
432,344
211,997
220,778
242,450
257,513
263,213
250,006
238,096
243,476
254,798
270,356
110,657
117,329
126,928
133,730
141,892
140,938
144,384
147,245
151,409
161,988
195,204
209,389
228,270
239,572
244,507
238,805
248,212
257,698
279,560
298,092
103,647
110,809
122,076
126,055
125,583
119,849
126,308
133,081
149,505
160,214
23,982
26,094
31,108
32,988
33,331
30,471
31,525
31,693
35,847
41,302
91,557
98,579
106,194
113,516
118,924
118,957
121,905
124,617
130,055
137,877
393,515
430,468
474,192
508,853
531,115
519,143
493.104
458,161
469,450
480,128
1.68
1.59
1.58
1.63
1.65
1.65
1.54
1.49
1.43
1.43
293,901
299,808
300,754
299,824
300,755
301,284
156,108
160,625
162,281
160,706
161,360
161,976
137,793
139,183
138,473
139,118
139,395
139,308
426,722
427,245
429,959
431,303
431,652
432,344
266,482
266,987
268,267
269,971
270,389
270,356
160,240
160,258
161,692
161,332
161,263
161,988
293,595
298,670
302,744
301,467
302,155
306,155
155,476
160,400
165,364
162,792
162,492
167,520
37,976
39,532
44,880
41,310
44,279
47,586
138,119
138,270
137,380
138,675
139,663
138,635
471,362
470,224
472,214
473,857
475,257
480,128
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.44
1.44
1.44
298,685
301,763
300,646
308,003
311,203
308,851
312,672
159,125
161,918
160,377
164,615
167,487
166,902
168,180
139,560
139,845
140,269
143,388
143,716
141,949
144,492
434,724
435,615
435,413
435,441
434,220
433,868
434;521
272,657
273,400
273,535
273,870
273,857
273,649
274,644
162,067
162,215
161,878
161,571
160,363
160,219
159,877
307,151
302,648
305,091
307,001
314,194
312,139
317,633
167,355
163,146
165,519
163,472
170,287
169,994
172,928
46,163
44,555
46,613
40,487
44,979
42,921
46,177
139,796
139,502
139,572
143,529
143,907
142,145
144,705
488,594
489,479
493,924
492,922
495,913
499,201
504,162
1.46
1.44
1.45
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.39
'Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally
adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
2
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
•''Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
The producer price index for all finished goods was unchanged in July. Prices of finished consumer foods rose
0.2 percent and prices of other finished consumers goods fell 0.2 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.3
percent.
INDEX, 1982= ) 00 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
150
150
CONSUMER GOODS
EXCLUDING FOODS
110
!00
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR
(1982 = 100; montlily data seasonally adjusted]
Finished goods
Intermediate materials
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Consumer goods
Total
Total
1986
103.2
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
3993
1994
1995
1995: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996: Jan
Feb
Mar''
Apr
May
June
July
105,4
108.0
113.6
119.2
121.7
123.2
124.7
125.5
127.9
127.7
127.8
128.2
128.4
128.8
129.6
129.8
129.7
130.4
130.9
130.8
131.0
131 .0
107.3
109.5
112.6
118.7
124.4
124.1
123.3
125.7
126.8
129.0
128.5
128.6
130.1
130.0
131.4
131.5
131.0
130.7
131.7
131.2
131.2
133.3
133.6
101.9
104.0
106.5
111.8
117.4
120.9
123.1
124.4
125.1
127.5
127.4
127.4
127.6
127.9
128.0
129.0
129.4
12.9.3
129.9
130.7
130.7
130.3
130.2
98.5
100.7
103.1
108.9
115.3
118.7
120.8
121.7
121.6
123.9
123.8
123.8
123.9
124.1
124.1
125.4
126.2
126.0
126.9
127.9
127.8
127.4
127.1
liatfi materittKs for food iminiifavtiiring arifJ fwils.
NOTK.—Beginning; 1996, indexes an1 based on updated value weights.
22
Durable
108.9
111.5
113.8
117.6
120.4
123.9
125.7
128.0
130.9
132.7
132.4
132.5
132.6
133.2
134.0
134.2
133.7
133.8
134.0
134.1
134.1
134.7
134.3
N
ble
93.3
94.9
97.3
103.8
111.5
115.0
117.3
117.6
116.2
118.8
118.7
118.6
118.7
118.8
118.4
120.2
121.5
121.2
122.3
123.8
123.6
122.7
122.5
Capital
equipment
109.7
111.7
114.3
118.8
122.9
126.7
129.1
131.4
134.1
136.7
136.7
136.9
137.1
137.5
138.1
138.1
138.0
138.0
138.1
138.3
138.2
138.0
138.4
Total
finished
consumer
go«s
101.4
103.6
106.2
112.1
118.2
120.5
121.7
123.0
123.3
125.6
125.4
125.4
125.8
126.0
126.4
127.4
127.7
127.5
128.4
129.0
128.9
129.3
129.1
Total
99.1
101.5
107.1
112.0
114.5
114.4
114.7
116.2
118.5
124.9
125.5
125.6
125.4
125.4
125.3
125.5
125.7
125.1
125.2
125.7
126.3
125.7
125.3
Foods
and
feeds '
96.2
99.2
109.5
113.8
113.3
111.1
110.7
112.7
114.8
114.8
113.4
114.6
115.7
119.0
121.5
123.3
123.2
123.0
123.0
125.5
130.2
131.9
131.8
Source: Department of Lalw, Bureau of I
Crude materials
Other
Total
99.3
101.7
87.7
93.7
96.0
103.1
108.9
101.2
100.4
102.4
101.8
102.7
102.4
101.0
102.9
103.0
104.6
106.3
106.9
111.9
114.5
114.6
114.9
116.4
118.7
125.5
126.1
126.1
125.9
125.7
125.5
125.7
125.8
125.2
125.4
125.8
126.1
125.4
124.9
- Statistics.
108.7
110.4
108.9
113.7
115.2
112.6
114.0
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
93.2
96.2
106.1
111.2
113.1
105.5
105.1
108.4
106.5
105.8
105.6
106.0
109.7
112.3
115.5
115.0
114.5
113.7
113.8
118.4
125.8
127.6
131.0
Other
81.6
87.9
85.5
93.4
101.5
94.6
93.5
94.7
94.8
96.8
96.5
93.9
94.6
93.2
93.6
96.7
100.9
104.3
101.7
106.5
104.0
98,5
98.6
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
in July, the consumer price index for aii urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted and 0.2 percent
not seasonally adjusted. The index was 3.0 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 {RATIO SCALE)
180
ISO
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
170
170
160
150
150
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS
V
140
130
130
120
120
UO
110
100
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1982-84=100, except as noted; montlily data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Transportation
Housing
All items '
Shelter
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995- Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov ..
Dec
1996: Jan
Feb
May
Jnly
Not
season- Seasonally
ally
adjust- adjusted
ed
(NSA)
100.0
109.6
113.6
118,3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
152.5
152.9
153.2
153.7
153.6
153.5
154.4
154.9
155.7
156.3
156.6
156.7
157.0
152.7
153.0
153.2
153.7
153.8
154.1
154.7
155.0
155.6
156.2
156.7
156.8
157.2
Food
Total '
Total
15.8
109.0
113.5
118.2
125.1
132.4
136.3
137.9
140.9
144.3
148.4
148.7
149.0
149.5
150.0
150.0
150.2
150.3
150.5
151.4
151.9
152.0
153.1
153.8
41.3
110.9
114.2
118.5
123.0
128.5
133.6
137.5
141.2
144.8
148.5
148.5
148.9
149.1
149.6
149.9
150.3
150.8
151.1
151.5
151.9
152.2
152.3
152.9
Renters'
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)
38.3
115.8
121.3
127.1
132.8
140.0
146.3
151.2
155.7
160.5
165.7
165.8
166.0
166.5
167.1
167.5
167.9
168.6
168.9
169.3
169.7
170.1
170.4
171.2
1
Includes items not. shown separately.
-Household fuels— gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—-and motor fuel. Motor
etc. excluded beginning 1983.
:<
Relative importance, DecemlxM- 199;").
L-oolant,
8.0
121.9
128.1
133.6
138.9
146.7
155.6
160.9
165.0
169.4
174.3
174.0
174.0
174.7
175.2
175.3
175.5
176.7
177.1
177.7
178.1
178.4
178.7
180.2
Home- Main- Fuel
and
ownteers'
nance other
utiliand
costs
ties
re(Dec.
1982 = pairs
100) (NSA)
20.1
119.4
124.8
131.1
137.3
144.6
150.2
155.3
160.2
165.5
171.0
171.3
171.7
172.2
172.8
173.4
173.9
174.3
174.6
175.0
175.4
175.9
176.2
176.7
0.2
107.9
111.8
114.7
118.0
122.2
126.3
128.6
130.6
130.8
135.0
135.1
135.4
135.4
136.3
136.2
136.6
136.3
137.0
137.5
138.0
138.8
138.8
139.4
7.0
104.1
103.0
104.4
107.8
111.6
115.3
117.8
121.3
122.8
123.7
123.6
124.2
123.4
124.1
124.2
124.4
125.0
125.7
126.0
126.8
127.2
126.9
127.5
Apparel
and
up- Total '
keep
5.5
105.9
110.6
115.4
118.6
124.1
128.7
131.9
133.7
133.4
132.0
131.8
132.0
131.7
132.1
132.1
132.2
133.1
131.9
132.7
132.2
132.3
131.8
131.7
17.0
102.3
105.4
108.7
114.1
120.5
123.8
126.5
130.4
134.3
139.1
140.0
139.5
139.4
139.5
138.9
139.0
140.0
140.7
141.7
143.3
144.3
143.7
143.4
New
cars
Motor
fuel
4.0
110.6
114.6
116.9
119.2
121.0
125.3
128.4
131.5
136.0
139.0
139.1
139.2
139.6
139.6
139.8
139.8
140.0
140.4
140.6
140.7
140.8
141.4
141.7
2.9
77.1
80.2
80.9
88.5
101.2
99.4
99.0
98.0
98.5
100.0
101.3
99.3
97.9
97.4
95.4
97.5
101.2
101.0
104.6
110.3
112.8
108.7
106.6
Medical
care
Energy2
All
items
less
food
and
energy
7.4
122.0
130.1
138.6
149.3
162.8
177.0
190.1
201.4
211.0
220.5
221.0
221.8
222.6
223.1
223.8
224.6
225.4
225.8
226.4
227.0
227.7
228.3
228.9
S. 7
88.2
88.6
89.3
94.3
102.1
102.5
103.0
104.2
104.6
105.2
105.4
105.0
103.6
103.9
103.0
104.1
106.1
106.5
108.0
111.5
112.7
110.2
109.8
77.5
113.5
118.2
123.4
129.0
135.5
142.1
147.3
152.2
156.5
161.2
161.7
162.0
162.4
162.9
163.1
163.3
163.8
164.2
164.7
164.9
165.3
165.6
166.1
NoTK.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowner-ship costs (beginning
1983).
Source: Department of LalK>r, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
j Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally a<ljusted, except as noted by NSA|
Change from preceding period
Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Bxel tiding
foods
Koods
Capita!
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Capital
equipment
Total
finished
goods
Excluding
foods
Foods
Change
from year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dec. to Dee., NSA
-2.3
2.2
4.0
4.9
5.7
-.1
1.6
.2
1.7
2.3
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
-6.6
4.1
3.1
5.3
8.7
-.7
1.6
-1.4
2.0
2.3
2.8
-.2
5.7
5.2
2.6
-1.5
1.6
-2.4
1.1
1.9
-1.4
2.1
2.5
5.2
4.9
2.1
1.2
1.2
.6
1.9
2.1
1.3
3.6
3.8
3.4
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
Change, month to month
1995- July
.1
.3
.2
.3
.6
0.9
.1
1.2
-.1
1.1
.1
-0.3
0
.1
.2
0
1.0
0.1
.1
.1
.3
.4
0
0.3
-.3
1.6
2.2
3.2
4.4
0
2.5
8.8
4.8
9.0
4.4
0
-2.2
-1.0
1.0
1.0
4.9
1.5
1.5
1.8
2.4
3.6
2.9
1.1
.9
1.4
1.3
1.4
3.0
0.6
.6
3.0
2.3
5.7
6.5
1.1
.8
.6
.5
-.6
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.5
2.4
1.7
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.1
2.3
.2
-.1
.5
.4
-.1
.2
0
-.4
-2
.8
'-.4
0
1.6
.2
.6
-.1
0
.1
'.1
-.1
1
.3
4.4
2.8
2.5
3.4
3.4
1.9
.3
3.1
-2.1
.6
.6
1.5
'4.9
7.5
6.9
6.3
4.9
5.5
5.8
'1.6
-2.5
1.5
-.3
0
.9
.6
3.3
3.0
3.5
3.9
3.1
2.2
1.9
3.9
3.3
2.5
1.9
-.3
2.8
4.0
3.9
3.6
4.9
6.2
6.1
3.2
1.4
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.2
.1
-.1
.6
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.7
2.6
0
Sept
Oct
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb .
Marr
July
0
.7
'.8
-.1
-.3
-.2
r
o
'.3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally atftusted, except as noted by NSAI
Transportation
Housing
Shelter
Period
All
items '
Food
Total"
Total'
Renters'
costs
Homeowners'
costs
Fuel
am]
other
utilities
Appare!
and
Total'
upkeep
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
All
items
less
food
and
energy
Energy2
Addendum: All items,
percent change
(annual rate)
From
previous
quarter*
From
From
From
3
6
year
months months earlier
NSA
earlier earlier
Change, December to December, NSA
1.1
4.4
4.4
4.6
6.1
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.5
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
3.8
3.5
5.2
5.6
5.3
1.9
1.5
2.9
2.9
2.1
1.7
3.7
4.0
3.9
4.5
3.4
2.6
2,7
2.2
3.0
4.6
4.8
4.5
4.9
5.2
3.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.5
5.0
3.9
3.9
4.5
6.7
4.2
2.8
2.6
2.3
3.0
4.6
5.3
4.7
5.1
4.7
3.7
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.7
-5.6
1.6
2.9
3.2
4.0
2.9
2.3
2.5
.2
1.4
-5.9
6.1
3.0
4.0
10.4
-1.5
3.0
2.4
3.8
1.5
0.9
4.8
4.7
1.0
5.1
3.4
1.4
.9
-1 6
.1
5.9 -307
18.7
1.8
2.1 -2.1
6.8
2.3
36.5
1.4
3.3 -16.0
1.8
2.3
-5.4
2.8
3.2
5.9
-4.0
1.6
7.7
5.8
6.9
8.5
9.6
7.9
6.6
5.4
4.9
3.9
-19.7
8.2
.5
5.1
18.1
-7.4
2.0
-1.4
2.2
-1.3
3.8
4.2
4.7
4.4
5.2
4.4
3.3
3.2
2.6
3.0
-2.3
-2.0
-1.4
0.3
.4
.4
.2
.3
.4
-1.0
-1.3
.3
-.9
1.1
0.2
.2
2
3
.1
.1
.4
.2
1.9
.4
1.4
3.2
1.1
-2.2
-.4
.3
.2
.3
.1
.2
.2
.3
1.9
3.6
4.1
4.8
5.4
4.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
Change, month to month
1995- July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
1
0.1
.2
.1
.3
.1
.2
0.1
.2
.3
.3
0
.1
0.3
.3
.1
.3
.2
.3
0.3
.1
.3
.4
.2
.2
0.3
0
A
.3
.1
.1
0.3
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
0.1
.5
-6
.6
.1
.2
0.3
.2
-.2
.3
0
.1
.4
.2
.4
.4
.3
.1
.3
.1
.1
.6
.3
.1
.7
.5
.3
.2
.3
.3
.2
.1
.4
.4
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.5
.7
.2
.3
.2
.2
.2
.8
.2
.2
.2
.2
.3
.2
.3
.5
.6
.2
.6
.3
-.2
.5
.7
-.9
.6
-.4
.1
-.4
-.1
Includes items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., excluded beginning 1983.
2
24
-0.6 -0.1
-.4
.1
-.1
.3
.1
0
-.4
.1
.1
0
.7
.5
.7
1.1
.7
-.4
-.2
3
.1
.3
.1
.1
.1
.4
.2
-2^1
2.2
3.8
-.2
3.6
5.4
2.3
-3.6
-1.9
g
.3
.3
.3
.3
4
2.1
2.4
£2
3.9
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
Source: Department of Ijabor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2.4
2.1
1.6
2.6
2.1
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.6
3.2
4.0
3.9
4.5
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.2
3.3
3.8
3.5
3.3
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
In August, prices received by farmers fell 1.7 percent and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are
not seasonally adjusted.)
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE]
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
120
110
80
SO
RATKD-"
RAT 0-^
140
140
120
P
100
80
60
r^—"-^i
1 1111111111
PATin
1 111 1111111
1988
S-
—-*
1 1 111 1 1 1 1 11
1990
19R9
/
«•"— "-"*•
==
120
.
~^~
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1
1991
1999
1993
1994
r
"
11111111111
•».
1995
_!/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
100
'
80
-
60
1 111111 1 111
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1990-92=100; not seasonally adjusted]
Prices paid by farmers
Prices received by farmers
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
..
1995: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996: Jan
Peb
Mar
May
June
July
1
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
Crops
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
Production
items
Ratio2
87
89
99
104
104
100
98
101
100
102
87
86
104
109
103
101
101
102
105
112
88
91
93
100
105
99
97
100
95
92
85
87
91
96
99
100
101
102
106
109
85
87
92
97
99
100
101
102
106
109
86
87
90
95
99
100
101
103
106
109
103
102
108
108
105
99
97
98
94
92
102
105
104
106
108
108
106
109
108
111
118
118
116
114
115
114
117
118
122
122
128
128
131
141
136
131
92
94
92
94
96
94
93
93
93
96
99
103
103
110
110
111
111
112
113
113
114
114
115
115
115
115
109
109
110
111
112
113
113
114
114
114
114
114
114
109
109
110
111
112
113
113
114
114
115
115
116
116
93
95
94
95
96
96
94
96
95
97
103
103
101
Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmer to index of prices paid, interest.
taxes, and wage rates.
2
All commodities,
services, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates1
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in M2 and M3 slowed in July.
BILLIONS OF COLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
4,800
4,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
4,800
4,400
4,000
4,000
M3
3,600
3,600
3,200
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
800
800
600
400
1988
1990
1991
1993
1992
1994
1995
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISESS
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
19861987:
19881989199019911992:
19931994:
1995-
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec'
1995- June'
July
A\lg'
Sept'
Octr
Nov
Dec'
1996- Jan'
Feb'
Mar'
Apr'
May'
June'
July
Ml
M2
M3
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
aud other
checkable deposits (OCDs)
Ml plus retail
MMMF balances,
MMDAs, and savings and small time
deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
RPs, Eurodollars, and
institutiononly MMMF
balances
724.4
749.8
786.9
794.2
825.8
897.2
1,024.4
1,128.6
1,148.7
1,124.9
1,144.5
1,145.4
1,143.8
1,140.2
1,131.8
1,129.0
1,124.9
1,119.2
1,117.3
1,126.6
1,123.6
1,117.2
1,116.7
1,108.4
2,734.6
2,834.4
2,997.9
3,164.0
3,282.2
3,383.7
3,438.7
3,494.1
3,509.4
3,662.3
3,573.7
3,592.4
3,612.2
3,625.3
3,632.8
3,645.0
3,662.3
3,677.1
3,693.7
3.729.7
3,735.7
3,730.0
3,746.8
3,753.1
1
Consists' of outstanding m-dit market dobt of the U.S. Govern incut, State and local govi'rn/mvif.s, arid private nojjfimmi-JiiJ scrtoj-s; data from flow of funds accounts.
-Annual dian^es are from Doc<>m!>er to l)wmilx*r and monthly changes art; from 6 months
oarl'nT at a simple annual rate.
26
3,486.4
3,673.3
3,912.4
4,065.5
4,124.1
4,178.4
4,187.3
4,249.6
4,319.7
4,575.7
4,458.1
4,486.0
4,513.4
4,533.7
4,549.1
4,561.2
4,575.7
4,604.0
4,642.8
4,686.2
4,693.4
4,704.7
4,722.7
4,736.5
L
Debt
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average of
adjacent
month-end
levels) '
4,122.4
4,328.5
4,664.2
4,894.2
4,975.8
5,004.4
5.075.8
5,164.5
5,303.7
5,685.1
5,494.8
5,544.1
5,580.0
5,626.1
5,653.1
5,659.9
5,685.1
5,704.0
5,725.1
5.785.3
5,813.0
5,812.3
f 5,843.5
7,909.4
8,667.2
9,443.1
10,173.1
10,852.3
11,340.2
11,880.5
12,517.4
13,159.3
13,894.8
13,595.9
13,634.3
13.689.4
13,734.3
13,786.5
13.857.3
13,894.8
13,933.2
14,009.4
14,080.4
14,132.9
14,177.0
!• 14,222.4
NOTE.—Si>c p. 27 for components.
.S;wra:: Board of Gowrnors of thv Fedora) Ifcsswve
Percent change from year
or 6
months earlier2
M2
Ml
16.9
3.5
4.9
.9
4.0
8.6
14.2
10.2
1.8
-2.1
-.7
rj
-.7
-1.5
-3.4
-3.0
-3.4
-4.6
-4.6
-2.4
-1.4
-2.1
-1.5
-l.S
9.5
3.6
5.8
5.5
3.7
3.1
1.6
1.6
.4
4.4
3.7
4.5
5.6
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.0
4.7
4.5
5.8
5.7
4.7
4.6
4.1
M3
9.0
5.4
6.5
3.9
1.4
1.3
.2
1.5
1.6
5.9
6.4
6.6
7.4
7.5
7.2
6.4
5.3
5.3
5.7
6.7
6.3
6.3
6.4
5.8
Debt
12.6
9.6
9.0
7.7
6.7
4.5
4.8
5.4
5.1
5.6
6.6
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.3
4.8
4.4
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.0
4.6
4.7
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Currency
Period
19861987:
198819891990199119921993199419951995-
180.7
196.8
212.3
222.6
246.9
267.4
292.9
322.4
354.9
373.2
367.0
367.3
368.5
369.5
370.8
371.6
373.2
373.6
373.3
375.2
376.0
377.1
379.4
382.6
Dec .
Dec
Dee
Dec .
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dee
Dec
Dec
June
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee
1996- Jan .
Feb
Mar
July
Other
Decheckmand
able
depos- deposits
its
(OCDs)
302.1 235.6
286.8 259.5
286.8 280.9
279.3 285.3
277.4 293.9
289.5 332.5
384.2
339.1
384.3 414.0
382.4 402.9
389.8 353.0
386.5 382.0
388.5 380.8
389.3 377.2
389.4 372.4
388.1
364.1
388.2 360.4
389.8 353.0
393.5 343.2
397.4 337.8
407.1 335.4
406.3 '332.4
409.6 '321.8
413.6 315.0
410.5 306.8
Money market
mutual fund
balances
Retail i
210.3
224.5
246.0
322.5
358.1
373.7
356.0
358.7
388.1
465.1
418.8
431.7
443.6
450.3
455.0
460.1
465.1
468.6
474.7
487.fr
488.7
487.4
496.0
501.8
Savings
deposits,
including
money
market
Instideposit
tution accounts
only2 (MMDAs)
84.5
91.1
90.3
106.9
133.5
179.5
199.8
197.9
183.7
227.2
213.2
218.6
218.5
221.7
223.7
224.8
227.2
230.6
243.9
248.3
245.6
243.5
249.4
252.9
940.9
937.3
926.3
893.6
923.8
1,045.0
1,187.1
1,218.8
1,148.9
1,134.6
1,097.0
1,096.2
1,101.6
1,108.4
1,116.1
1,120.6
1,134.6
1,151.8
1,164.5
1,183.0
'1,193.2
'1,197.5
1,206.9
1,213.6
' Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000.
2
Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more.
3
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less
than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
Small
denomination
time
deposits3
Large
denomination
time deposits 3
859.0
922.7
1,038.6
1,153.7
1,174.5
1,067.8
871.2
788.0
823.7
'937.8
'913.4
'919.0
'923.3
'926.5
'929.9
'935.2
'937.8
'937.6
'937.1
'932.4
'930.2
'927.9
927.2
929.2
Overnight
and
term
repurchase
agreements
(BPs)
(net)
420.2 143.3
467.0 172.6
518.3
189.0
541.5
158.0
480.9 138.8
416.5 119.4
353.7 128.1
333.8 157.5
363.5 180.8
417.5 177.6
387.6 191.7
393.9 188.4
396.6 192.9
400.5 192.5
409.8 190.0
415.5
185.3
417.5 177.6
416.6 184.4
422.4 '186.3
429.7 184.1
'432.2 182.9
'437.6 195.1
443.6 183.6
451.9 180.8
Overnight
and
term
Eurodollars
(net)
103.9
108.2
117.0
95.2
88.7
79.3
66.9
66.3
82.3
'91.1
91.8
92.6
93.1
93.7
92.9
'90.7
'91.1
'95.4
'96.6
'94.4
'97.1
'98.5
99.3
97.7
Savings
bonds
Shortterm BankTreas- ers' acury
ceptsecuri- ances
ties
Commercial
paper
91.8
100.6
109.4
117.5
126.0
137.9
156.6
171.5
180.3
184.8
182.4
183.0
183.5
183.9
184.2
184.5
184.8
185.0
185.0
185.2
185.6
186.0
f 186.4
275.8
249.5
266.8
324.0
334.2
329.1
345.9
342.8
387.3
475.6
'414.4
'434.0
437.4
'457.0
'465.7
464.5
475.6
'466.0
'444.8
'459.1
'462.7
'437.6
P 452.2
231.3
260.6
335.4
346.5
355.3
335.2
365.0
385.6
402.4
437.1
428.9
429.0
433.3
438.6
440.5
437.1
437.1
437.2
442.3
445.1
461.0
'473.4
P 470.9
37.1
44.5
40.2
40.7
36.1
23.9
20.9
14.9
14.2
11.9
11.0
12.1
12.4
12.8
13.4
12.6
11.9
11.7
10.2
9.8
10.3
10.7
fll.3
NOTE.—Travelers cheeks of nonbank issuers are a w>nipoiient of money stock but are not
shown here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures'; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA)
Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal
Reserve (NSA)
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total
1986:
198719881989199019911992199319941995:
1995-
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec .
Dee
July
Sept
Get
Dec
1996- Jan
Peb
July
1
38,950
38,866
40,410
40,508
41,780
45,547
54,367
60,519
59,364
56,364
57,680
57,499
57,344
56,839
56,333
56,364
55,606
54,848
55,727
55,182
54,227
54,112
53,197
Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures.
Nonborrowed
38,123
38,089
38,694
40,242
41,455
45,355
54,243
60,437
59,156
56,106
57,309
57,217
57,066
56,593
56,129
56,106
55,568
54,813
55,706
55,091
54,100
53,726
52,829
Nonborrowed
plus
extended
credit
38,426
38,572
39,938
40,262
41,478
45,356
54,244
60,437
59,156
56,106
57,309
57,217
57,066
56,593
56,129
56,106
55,568
54,813
55,706
55,091
54,100
53,726
52,829
Required
37,580
37,820
39,362
39,585
40,116
44,569
53,212
59,456
58,196
55,086
56,590
56,512
56,394
55,758
55,390
55,086
54,121
53,997
54,590
54,062
53,368
52,962
52,132
Monetary
base
223,571
239,784
256,920
267,723
293,332
317,502
351,244
386,877
418,723
'435,006
429,822
430,807
431,685
432,737
433,206
435,006
435,182
433,667
436,871
436,644
'437,009
'439,079
441,846
Total
827
777
1,716
265
326
192
124
82
209
257
371
282
278
245
204
257
38
35
21
91
127
386
368
Seasonal
38
93
130
84
76
38
18
31
100
40
231
258
252
199
73
40
7
7
10
34
105
192
284
Extended
credit
303
483
1,244
20
23
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.3 percent in July; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.5 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
3,200
4,000
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
4,000
3,600 I- ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
800
• U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES-
800
\ .
400
400
OTHER SECURITIES
200
200
\
160
1988
1989
1991
1990
1 M I I I1
H I I I 1I
I IiIII M II1
1992
1993
1994
I I I I I I It M
1996
1995
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
160
1
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted'
Securities in bank credit
Period
1988- Dec
1989- Dec
1990- Dec
1991: Dec
1992: Dec
1993- Dec ...
1994: Dec r
1995- Dec
1995- July'
Aug r ...
Sepf
Oetr
Novr ...
Dec
1996: Jan r
Feb'r
Mar
Apr' ...
May ..
June r
July
Total
bank
credit
Total
securities
Loans and leases in bank credit
U.S.
Total
CommerGovernOther
and
cial and
securities loans
ment
2
leases
industrial
securities
Total
2,436.1
2,609.1
2,751.6
2,856.4
2,957.0
3,113.8
3,326.9
3,604.9
562.0
584.5
633.7
745.0
843.4
918.8
r
952.2
990.8
366.8
400.0
455.6
565.2
666.8
733.9
732.0
710.7
195.2
184.5
178.2
179.8
176.7
184.9
220.2
280.1
1,874.1
2,024.7
2,117.8
2,111.4
2,113.6
2,195.0
2,374.7
2,614.1
608.0
675.1
770.2
639.3
640.8
855.3
619.5
880.0
596.2
901.3
940.5
585.9
645.2 ••1,002.5
716.8 1,078.7
3,533.2
3,548.4
3,571.1
3,581.9
3,593.8
3,604.9
982.8
985.2
989.1
988.8
989.6
990.8
703.9
708.5
708.4
713.2
714.5
710.7
278.8
276.6
280.6
275.5
275.1
280.1
2,550.4
2,563.3
2,582.1
2,593.1
2,604.2
2,614.1
697.7
701.4
707.6
709.6
713.8
716.8
3,633.9
3,647.8
3,641.7
3,659.6
3,663.8
3,668.5
3,671.9
991.5
998.6
983.4
982.0
988.5
980.1
975.0
703.1
716.3
705.9
705.9
714.7
708.0
707.9
288.3
282.3
277.5
276.1
273.8
272.1
267.1
2,642.5
2,649.3
2,658.3
2,677.6
2,675.2
2,688.4
2,696.9
723.9
728.4
727.4
733.4
735.8
738.8
742.7
1
Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, brandies and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment
companies, and foreign-related institutions. Data an* adjusted for breaks caused by rcdassifj«ations of assets and liabilities.
28
Real estate
Revolving
home
equity
Other
Consumer Security
Oilier
635.0
719.9
793.0
810.3
827.7
867.5
r
927.2
999.7
357.8
378.3
383.4
366.6
358.9
390.5
451.2
496.2
54.4
64.1
87.5
76.2
83.8
192.5
195.5
193.2
190.9
193.0
190.6
199.6
238.6
1,062.2
1,067.9
1,071.9
1,075.8
1,077.7
1,078.7
40.1
50.3
62.3
69.6
73.5
73.0
75.3
79.1
78.0
78.2
78.4
78.4
78.8
79.1
984.2
989.7
993.5
997.3
998.9
999.7
481.0
485.7
489.5
490.1
493.3
496.2
87.1
84.3
86.7
87.0
87.0
83.8
222.4
223.9
226.4
230.8
232.4
238.6
1,086.1
1,089.6
1,095.0
1,096.7
1,098.4
1,101.6
1,102.6
79.6
79.8
79.8
79.9
79.5
79.1
79.5
1,006.6
1,009.8
1,015.2
1,016.8
1,018.9
1,022.5
1,023.1
500.5
500.6
504.1
507.8
505.4
510.6
512.7
85.0
85.7
84.9
85.9
82.6
82.1
80.3
246.9
244.9
246.9
253.7
253.2
255.3
258.5
40.7
41.4
45.0
2
Excludes Federal fluids sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (Ill's) with, and loans to
commercial hanks in the United States.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates]
Uses
Sources
External
Period
Credit market funds
Total
Internal '
Total
Total
533.4
648.4
851.9
744.3
592.6
489.3
599.9
698.1
755.9
892.5
659,9
752.6
694.8
916.3
752.3
964.7
908.1
944.9
900.8
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1994- I
II
III
IV
1995- I
II
Ill
IV
1996:
IP
343.4
374.5
408.2
396.9
409.1
422.2
438.6
480.2
521.9
545.7
513.5
522.0
521.4
530.6
517.3
526.3
561.4
577.8
578.5
190.0
273.9
443.7
347.4
183.5
67.1
161.3
217.9
234.0
346.8
146.4
230.6
173.4
385.7
235.0
438.4
346.7
367.1
322.3
Securities
and mortgages
Loans and
short-term
paper
58.9
29.1
92.4
44.1
95.7
94.9
73.6
-110.7
-6.0
-12.4
112.4
132.1
100.3
93.4
113.7
142.6
192.6
165.1
84.9
86.2
100.6
151.3
73.2
95.5
59.0
47.0
-34.8
61.1
73.3
84.4
138.5
110.4
128.1
70,9
28.3
187.9
194.3
54.6
117.2
42.5
0
35 9
-26.6
75.9
67.1
85.7
280
6.4
10.1
34.7
-42.8
-114.3
-4.7
29.2
30 3
31.0
-58,1
1
Profits bofore tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed
capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, arid inventory valuation adjustment
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment
in the U.S.
Total
Other2
38.7
200.8
348.1
288.4
136.5
101.9
100.1
144.6
149.6
208.3
36.0
102.3
102.4
357.4
47.2
244.1
292.2
249.9
279.8
Increase in
financial
assets
Capital
expenditures :i
519.4
592.0
756.2
632.9
509.8
500.7
554.4
787.9
763.1
879.2
674.6
695.4
677.1
1,005.3
707.6
928.0
869.3
1,011.8
890.1
347.3
357.4
373.3
399.4
394.5
370.9
386.9
430.6
485.0
546.6
443.9
476.9
490.6
528.6
552.9
534.1
573.0
526.3
519.9
Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
172.1
234.6
382.9
233.5
115.3
129.8
167.5
357.3
278.1
332.6
230.7
218.5
186.5
476.7
154.7
393.9
296.3
485.5
370.2
14.0
56.5
95.7
111.4
82.9
-11.4
45.6
-89.8
-7.2
13.3
-14.7
57.2
17.6
-89.0
44.8
36.7
38.8
-67.0
10.6
:t
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, arid access rights from
U.S. Government.
Source: Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER CREDIT
j Hi I lions of dollars; seasonally adjusted |
Consumer credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total
19861987198819891990:
19911992:
199319941995:
1995-
Dec
Dee
Dee3
Dee .
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee .
Dec
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
.
June p
1
638.9
671.7
729.9
781.9
796.4
781.1
784.9
844.1
966.5
1,103.2
1,037.0
1,047.5
1,059.9
1,074.7
1,082.7
1,094.4
1,103.2
1,112.2
1,123.2
1,132.9
1,139.8
1,145.4
1,153.7
Automobile
247.2
266.1
285.5
291.0
282.4
259.3
257.1
279.8
317.2
351.1
332.6
336.9
339.2
341.0
344.1
347.2
351.1
352.5
355.1
357.8
360.5
361.6
366.9
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month.
2
Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, eta., plus noninstallment credit.
Net change in consumer credit outstanding '
Other 2
Revolving
136.0
153.3
174.5
198.6
223.3
245.8
257.8
287.0
339.3
413.9
378.8
382.2
390.1
399.5
404.6
407.4
413.9
419.0
425.7
431.0
438.2
443.9
446.7
255.7
252.4
269.9
292.3
290.7
276.1
269.9
277.3
309.9
338.2
325.6
328.4
330.6
334.2
334.0
339.7
338.2
340.7
342.4
344.1
341.1
339.9
340.1
Total
54.2
32.8
58.2
(4)
14.5
-15.3
3.8
59.2
122.4
136.7
12.6
10.5
12.4
14.8
8.0
11.7
8.8
9.0
11.0
9.7
6.9
5.6
8.3
Automobile
36.3
18.9
19.4
(4)
-8.6
-23.1
-2.2
22.7
37.4
33.9
2.4
4.3
2.3
1.8
3.1
3.1
3.9
1.4
2.6
2.7
2.7
1.1
5.3
Revolving
13.9
17.3
21.2
(4)
24.7
22.5
12.0
29.2
52.3
74.6
7.0
3.4
7.9
9.4
5.1
2.8
6.5
5.1
6.7
5.3
7.2
5.7
2.8
Other 2
4.0
-3.3
17.5
(4)
-1.6
-14.6
-6.2
7.4
32.6
28.3
3.2
2.8
2.2
3.6
-.2
5.7
-1.5
2.5
1.7
1.7
-3.0
1 .£i9
_L
.2
:s
Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between Dece
1988 and subsequent months.
4
Because of breaks in series, net change not available.
Source: Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
interest rotes fell in August.
PER CENT PER ANNUM
PERCENT PER ANNUM
14
14
12
12
10
10
—-
v./
"'\__ >•
8'
•-....
"""•--,
/ r~ J
6
CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)
*-
^~-N
8
\
!
X .S
\l
6
""—-,.
TREASURY
BILLS
J
'••
>t
4
4
/H
K •"
/
DISCOUNT
RATE
'
2
2
RES ERVE
BAI- JKOF
NE^ YORK
0
1 M
1 1 1 1 M
1 1
1 | 11 M 1 M M
t 1 I11 1 t 1 1 M
1989
1988
1 M 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1
1990
1991
M It
llll.lj
MM,I
1 1 M 1 M
1993
1992
1995
1994
sOUSCE: SEE TABLE &EiC w
0
1996
COUNCIL O f ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 ..
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995- Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1996: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
July
Week ended:
1996: Aug 3
10
17
24
ZIP
1
3-month
bills (new issues) '
Constant maturities2
3-year
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard
& Poor's)3
30
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months '
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.R.
Bank)4
Prime rate
charged by
banks4
5.98
5.82
6.69
8.12
7.51
5.42
3.45
3.02
4.29
5.51
5.41
5.26
5.30
5.35
5.16
5.02
4.87
4.96
4.99
5.02
5.11
5.17
5.09
7.06
7.68
8.26
8.55
8.26
6.82
5.30
4.44
6.27
6.25
6.10
5.89
5.77
5.57
5.39
5.20
5.14
5.79
6.11
6.27
6.49
6.45
6.21
7.68
8.39
8.85
8.49
8.55
7.86
7.01
5.87
7.09
6.57
6.49
6.20
6.04
5.93
5.71
5.65
5.81
6.27
6.51
6.74
6.91
6.87
6.64
7.38
7.73
7.76
7.24
7.25
6.89
6.41
5.63
6.19
5.95
6.07
5.88
5.77
5.61
5.42
5.42
5.45
5.82
5.93
5.98
6.03
5.91
5.72
9.02
9.38
9.71
9.26
9.32
8.77
8.14
7.22
7.97
7.59
7.57
7.32
7.12
7.02
6.82
6.81
6.99
7.35
7.50
7.62
7.71
7.65
7.45
6.39
6.85
7.68
8.80
7.95
5.85
3.80
3.30
4.93
5.93
5.75
5.66
5.71
5.59
5.43
5.23
4.99
5.26
5.38
5.42
5.57
5.67
5.51
6.33
5.66
6.20
6.93
6,98
5.45
3.25
3.00
3.60
5.21
5.25-5.25
5.25-5.25
5.25-5.25
5.25-5.25
5.25-5.25
5.25-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.33
8.21
9.32
10.87
10.01
8.46
6.25
6.00
7.15
8.83
8.75-8.75
8.75-8.75
8.75-8.75
8.75-8.75
8.75-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
5.20
5.08
5.04
5.06
5.07
6.34
6.12
6.13
6.18
6.41
6.76
6.54
6.56
6.63
6.84
5.86
5.65
5.69
5.73
5.81
7.55
7.35
7.39
7.48
7.64
5.65
5.49
5.48
5.47
5.54
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
Hank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues acljusted to constant maturities by the Treasury
Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
2
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Mood/si
New-home
mortgage
yields
(PHFB) s
10.17
9.31
9.19
10.13
10.05
9.32
8.24
7.20
7.49
7.87
7.75
7.69
7.58
7.46
7.40
7.32
7.20
7.49
7.76
7.80
8.05
8.01
5
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and
charges as well as contract rate anil assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in August.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATO SCALE)
JBU
J8U
360
340
320
300
280
260
360
340
320
300
280
260
r-^\S
f
J
y-'
/
_
s
/
180
^/
160
s~^\^ A
\s
/
'
240
220
\
(
COM OSITE STOCK PfilCE 1ND EX
200
/->
200
-v-
*^~*s
240
220
/
"N—-/
^•~——"*"
(NYSE)
180
160
/~^r^^
140
MI 1 1 1 1 1 1
120
1988
140
i i i ii l l l ll 1 1 1 1 1
1989
1990
l l l l l i i i i i INN l l l l l i i i ii i i M i 1 i i i i i M I N I M .
1992
1994
1996
1993
1995
i i i ii 1 : 1 1 1
1991
M i l l
PER :ENT
20
120
PERCE NT
20
15
15
EARNINGS-P RICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)
10
5
—
0
i
'
i
1988
i
i
—|
i
^'
i
^—
i
i
/
"""—T„
i
"•
l
1991
1990
1989
10
i
i
l
. .
1
i
Ka
i
1994
1993
1992
'
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION
i
i i
1995
Industrial
1
0
1
1996
Common stock yields
(percent) 6
New York Stock Exchange indexes 2(Dec. 31, 1965
except as noted)
Composite
I
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Common stock prices '
Period
5
Transportation
Utility3
Finance
Dow-Jones
industrial
average4
Standard &
Poor's composite index
(194143=10)0
Dividendprice ratio
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
136.00
161.70
149.91
180.02
183.46
206.33
229.01
249.58
254.12
291.15
155.85
195.31
180.95
216.23
225.78
258.14
284.62
299.99
315.25
367.34
119.87
140.39
134.12
175.28
158.62
173.99
201.09
242.49
247.29
269.41
142.72
148.59
143.53
174.87
181.20
185.32
198.91
228.90
209.06
220.30
147.20
146.48
127.26
151.88
133.26
150.82
179.26
216.42
209.73
238.45
1,792.76
2,275.99
2,060.82
2,508.91
2,678.94
2,929.33
3,284.29
3,522.06
3,793.77
4,493.76
236.34
286.83
265.79
322.84
334.59
376.18
415.74
451 .41
460.33
541.64
1995- July
298.18
300.05
310.41
311.78
317.58
327.90
379.13
379.79
390.42
389.63
398.66
412.11
279.15
285.63
295.54
291.16
300.06
303.53
219.18
221.99
229.64
236.43
238.98
247.59
240.50
245.27
260.72
265.12
266.12
273.36
4,684.76
4,639.27
4,746.76
4,760.46
4,935.81
5,136.10
557.37
559.11
578.77
582.92
595.53
614.57
329.22
346.46
346.73
347.50
354.84
358.32
345.52
354.59
412.71
435.92
439.56
441.99
452.63
458.30
438.58
449.33
300.30
315.29
324.76
326.42
334.66
331.57
316.66
321.61
254.07
257.80
245.77
244.87
249.73
247.20
245.31
244.74
273.73
290.97
290.45
287.92
290.43
294.42
287.89
302.95
5,179.37
5,518.73
5,612.24
5,579.86
5,616.71
5,671.51
5,496.26
5,685.50
614.42
649.54
647.07
647.17
661.23
668.50
644.07
662.68
3.49
3.08
3.64
3.45
3.61
3.24
2.99
2.78
2.82
2.56
2.50
2.49
2.42
2.41
2.37
2.30
2.31
2.22
2.22
2.24
2.21
2.21
2.28
2.22
344.67
353.65
354.31
357.06
354.84
436.46
448.48
448.96
452.17
449.77
312.24
319.76
321.30
325.02
322.84
242.19
245.43
244.42
245.53
243.06
292.26
300.54
303.09
306.66
303.32
5,544.00
5,696.77
5,674.87
5,713.35
5,676.28
643.73
662.29
663.10
667.01
660.90
2.31
2.23
2.23
2.21
2.21
Sept
Oct
Dec
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
July
Week ended:
1996- Aug 3
10
17
24
3lP
1
Average of daily closing prices.
* Includes ail th« stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE.
Due. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility
index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect
the doubling.
4
Includes 30 stocks.
•"'Includes 500 stocks.
3
Eaniingspriee ratio
6.09
5.48
8.01
7.41
6.47
4.79
4.22
4.46
5.83
6.09
6.02
5.51
5.27
6
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Karnings-priee ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & CTompany, Inc., and Stand an! & Poor's
(Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 10 months of fiscal 1996, there was a deficit of $102.1 billion, compared with a deficit of $137.2 billion
a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^
1,500
1,500
1,400
1,400
OUTLAYSJ/
1,300
1,300
1,200
1,200
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
RECEIPTS ~
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
— SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ( -)J/-
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
_L
-400
1987
1989
1988
1990
1991
-" INOJUDES ON-BUOOET AND OF F-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE Of MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
-400
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
734.1
769.1
854.1
909.0
990.7
1,031.3
1,054.3
1,090.5
1,153.5
1,257.7
1,355.2
1,453.4
409.2
458.7
504.0
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.8
946.4
990.3
1,003.9
1,064.1
1,143.2
1,252.5
1,323.6
1,380.9
1,408.7
1,460.8
1,519.1
1,570.1
-53.7
-59.2
-40.7
-73.8
-79.0
-128.0
-207.8
-185.4
-212.3
-221.2
-149.8
- 155.2
-152.5
-221.2
-269.4
-290.4
-255.1
-203.1
-163.9
-116.8
278.7
314.2
365.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
547.9
568.9
640.7
667.5
727.0
749.7
760.4
788.0
841.6
922.7
1,004.1
1,085.7
328.5
369.1
404.1
476.6
543.1
594.4
661.3
686.0
769.6
806.8
810.1
861.4
932.3
1,027.5
1,081.9
1,128.5
1,142.1
1,181.5
1,230.5
1,268.3
-49.8
549
-38.7
-72.7
-74.0
-120.1
-208.0
-185.7
-221.7
-238.0
-169.3
-194.0
-205.2
-277.8
-321.6
-340.5
-300.5
-258.8
-226.3
-182.7
76.8
85.4
98.0
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
186.2
200.2
213.4
241.5
263.7
281.7
293.9
302.4
311.9
335.0
351.1
367.7
80.7
89.7
100.0
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
176.8
183.5
193.8
202.7
210.9
225.1
241.7
252.3
266.6
279.4
288.7
301.8
1,110.8
1,194.3
1,248.0
1,296.4
-137.2
-102.1
817.7
887.2
1,016.5
1,056.0
-198.8
-168.9
293.1
307.1
231.6
Fiscal year or period
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
.. .
1996 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 10
months: '
Fiscal year 1995
Fiscal vear 1996 ..
1
Data from Monthly Treaxury Statement.
NOTK.—Data for fiscal 1996 are from Mifl-Sejudon Retnew of the, 1!)!)7 Budget issued July
16, 1996. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget tfthe United Stntat (Jwernment, Fiscal
Year 1997, issued March 19, 1996.
32
Off-budget
On-budget
Total
Receipts
Outlays
240.4
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Gross Federal debt
(end of period)
Total
Held by
the public
-3.9
-4.3
-2.0
-1.1
50
-7.9
.2
.3
9.4
16.7
19.6
38.8
52.8
56.6
52.2
50.1
45.3
55.7
62.4
65.9
706.4
776.6
829.5
909.1
994.8
1,137.3
1,371.7
1,564.7
1,817.5
2,120.6
2,346.1
2,601.3
2,868.0
3,206.6
3,598.5
4,002.1
4,351.4
4,643.7
4,921.0
5,180.1
549.1
607.1
640.3
709.8
785.3
919.8
1,131.6
1,300.5
1,499.9
1,736.7
1,888.7
2,050.8
2,189.9
2,410.7
2,688.1
2,998.8
3,247.5
3,432.1
3,603.4
3,747.1
61.5
66.7
4,906.7
5,145.8
3,594.1
3,722.8
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management arid Budget
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 10 months of fiscal 1996, receipts were $83.5 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $48.4
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
700
•
600
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
/oo
RECEIPTS^
INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES
500
'SOO
r—
\
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
rnpprwATpnN
INCOME TAXES
400
300
200
1
n
1
1
1
,
1
OTHER RECEIPTS
100
,
0
1,400
1,400
OUTLAYS^
1,300
1,300
•—*""
__
1,200
1,200
\
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
„
,
'
'
'
900
900
800
800
'
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
200 A
" 1987
300
\
\
1988
1
1989
1
1
1
1990
1991
1
1
1993
1992
N 200
1
1994
1996 ^
1995
-^ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
On-bud{jet arid off-budget rcec >ts
Fiscal year or period
Total
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 10 months: J
Fiscal year 1995
Fiscal year 1996
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
CorIndiporavidual
tion
income
taxes income
taxes
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
On-budget arid off-budget outlays
National defense
Social
insurance
tjiXCS
Other
Total
54.9 106.5
60.0 121.0
65.7 138.9
64.6 157.8
61.1 182.7
49.2 201.5
37.0 209.0
56.9 239.4
Department of
Defense,
military
International
affairs
Health
Medicare
36.6
37.7
40.8
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
409.2
458.7
504.0
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.8
97.2
104.5
116.3
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
95.1
102.3
113.6
130.9
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9
6.4
7.5
7.5
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
17.3
18.5
20.5
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
19.3
22.8
26.5
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
Income
security
Social
security
Net
interest
61.0
61.5
66.4
86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
85.1
93.9
104.1
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
29.9
35.5
42.6
52.5
68.8
85.0
89.8
111.1
93.0
114.7
120.2
131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6
Other
734.1 334.5
769.1 349.0
854.1 392.6
909.0 401.2
990.7 445.7
1,031.3 466.9
1,054.3 467.8
1,090.5 476.0
1,153.5 509.7
1,257.7 543.1
1,355.2 590.2
1,453.4 653.3
61.3
63.1
83.9
94.5
103.3
93.5
98.1
100.3
117.5
140.4
157.0
170.7
73.0
265.2
283.9
73.1
74.3
303.3
78.9
334.3
82.3
359.4
90.9
380.0
92.3
396.0
413.7 100.5
98.0
428.3
461.5 112.8
484.5 123.5
508.3 121.1
946.4
990.3
1,003.9
1,064.1
1,143.2
1,252.5
1,323.6
1,380.9
1,408.7
1,460.8
1,519.1
1,570.1
252.7
273.4
282.0
290.4
303.6
299.3
273.3
298.4
291.1
281.6
272.1
266.0
245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
294.9
289.8
262.4
286.9
278.6
268.6
259.6
254.8
16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
9.6
13.8
15.9
16.1
17.2
17.1
16.4
14.0
33.5
35.9
40.0
44.5
48.4
57.7
71.2
89.5
99.4
107.1
115.4
119.4
65.8
70.2
75.1
78.9
85.0
98.1
104.5
119.0
130.6
144.7
159.9
177.6
129.5
188.6
128.2
119.8 198.8 136.0
123.3 207.4 138.7
219.3 151.8
129.3
232.5 169.3
136.0
147.0 248.6 184.2
170.3 269.0 194.5
196.9 287.6 199.4
207.3 304.6 198.8
214.0 319.6 203.0
220.4 335.8 232.2
228.5 350.7 241.5
131.8
142.1
125.9
139.4
158.8
203.7
225.0
173.9
159.7
173.7
166.9
172.4
1,110.8
1,194.3
121.6
133.6
404.8
425.1
1,248.0
1,296.4
222.0
220.9
211.6
210.8
13.2
11.7
95.3
98.5
130.6
144.7
183.2
191.5
131.5
137.4
485.1
541.6
99.3
93.9
1
Data from Monthly Tmtumry Strttummt.
NOTE.—Data for fiscal 199fi are from Mid-fiction K&nKw of thr, 1!)!)7 Budget issued July
16, 1996. Other data (except as rioted) aw from liutlget of the, Unital State* Gomrnnwnt, Fixad
Year 1997, issued March 19, 1996.
Total
and
contributions
279.7
291.3
192.6
200.4
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Offiw of Management and Bud<ji>t.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the second quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $49.4 billion (annual rate);
Federal current expenditures rose $25.2 billion.
BlUJOhIS OF DOUARS
BILUONS OF CXOLLARS
!,800
1,800
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
-
-'
x- — **
1,600
1,600
^ **• ""
/
_--•
-
/-^
s
1,400
CURRENT EXPENDITURES
**•
\
1,200
1,000
•
•
^
1,400
^—~/~
•
1,200
^
1,000
^
S^~ RECEIPTS
^
_ — "*
800
— •** N /
I/""
s
-
f
__-•"
f
-* — —
^s
iA"
^* *"*
800
'"""''
- -.
600
^
-
'
600
-
-
-
-
-
-
400
400
200
200
C LIRRENT S URPlUS O R DEFICIT
(-)
0
0
^J
—~^*
-400
1 1 1
1982
1
1
1
1983
^—-~^^
1
1
^—
1
1984
1
!
1
1985
-. s- -/
~^-
1
^ '\
'
\
1 1
1986
!
1
!
1987
1
!
1
1
1988
1
i i i
1
1990
1991
1
1989
1 !
--
^^
i i i
1992
\
1
1
1993
-^
>"-N™-
1
1
1994
1
-200
1
1
1995
1
!
I
t
-400
1996
OUfNDARYE,«,RS
COUNC LOFECONOM3C ADVCER,
SOURCE: OEP yjTMENTOf1 OMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government receipts
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Contributions
for
social
insurance
1,079.3
1,129.8
1,149.0
1,198.5
1,275.3
1,377.0
1,478.4
463.4
485.7
476.9
490.8
523.6
561.4
614.9
1,135.2
1,160.9
1,230.5
1,225.2
1,271.3
1,280.3
1,324.4
484.9
479.0
510.0
117.1
118.0
109.8
118.6
137.5
164.4
184.3
117.4
111.1
123.7
127.5
136.5
133.7
152.2
144.3
162.2
171.3
180.0
61.7
65.1
79.7
81.9
88.2
92.6
91.2
67.4
82.8
86.5
84.3
87.5
87.2
93.7
92.8
91.3
93.3
93.2
91.7
93.5
88.4
91.3
84.4
83.2
437.1
461.1
482.6
507.1
526.0
558.6
588.0
465.6
488.1
510.3
512.4
526.2
530.3
535.1
545.5
558.1
562.1
568.6
579.9
584.6
591.8
595.9
602.6
612.0
Period
Total
Calendar year:
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1990- IV
1991: IV
1992: IV
1993: I
II
III
IV
1994:
I
II
m
IV
1995:
I
II
in
rv
1996:
I
IP
1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1
1,416.3
1,449.3
1,483.2
1,486.6
1,494.7
1,523.1
1,572.5
501.0
521.0
529.1
543.4
539.3
571.3
560.4
574.5
594.6
624.4
617.3
623.3
639.6
678.1
183.1
180.7
189.1
184.3
196.4
199.2
Source: Department of Commerce., Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
Federal Government current expenditures
Consumption
expenditures
Transfer
payments
1,192.7
1,284.5
1,345.0
1,479.4
1,530.9
1,567.3
1,640.1
1,313.0
1,399.8
1,509.5
405.2
426.6
445.9
451.0
451.9
450.7
453.8
1,509.7
1,521.5
1,534.7
1,557.7
451.3
448.5
453.5
454.3
1,534.6
1,552.5
1,575.7
1,606.4
446.7
445.1
455.7
455.3
1,621.9
1,644.3
1,645.0
1,649.3
454.6
455.6
453.6
451.4
1,678.3
1,703.5
453.6
464.7
471.7
513.3
522.2
625.1
659.1
682.9
719,9
526.1
565.8
643.3
645.9
654.7
660.8
675.0
670.9
676.4
683.5
700.9
708.3
716.2
724.2
730.9
756.2
757.6
Total
437.7
440.5
457.7
Grantsin-aid
to
Net
State interest
and
paid
local
governments
118.2
132.4
153.4
172.2
185.7
195.9
206.1
137.1
162.7
176.3
177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0
192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9
205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3
207.6
219.3
166.7
179.9
192.7
195.8
192.3
201.4
229.1
177.8
200.0
191.8
190.5
193.2
192.7
192.8
188.3
198.3
204.3
214.8
220.9
229.3
232.3
233.9
230.5
230.8
Subsidies less
current
surplus
of
Government
enterprises
30.8
32.4
30.8
35.1
41.8
36.4
31.3
34.4
30.9
40.3
44.7
43.6
40.5
38.6
36.5
35.3
35.2
38.5
32.3
32.0
31.1
29.9
30.4
31.1
Less:
Wage
accruals less
disbursements
0.0
.1
I
'o
.0
.0
.0
2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
Current
surplus
or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
-113.4
-154.7
- 196.0
-280.9
-255.6
- 190.2
-161.7
-177.7
-238.8
-279.0
- 284.5
-250.2
-254.4
- 233.3
-212.7
-169.6
- 188.5
-190.1
-172.6
-161.1
-158.5
-154.5
-155.2
-131.0
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial production (1987=100; seasonally adjusted)
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989 .
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
United
States
Canada
95.3
100.0
104.4
106.0
106.0
104.2
107.7
111.5
118.1
121.9
.
1995P
1995: May
95.4
100.0
105.3
105.2
101.7
97.4
98.5
102.9
'110.1
'113.8
121.3
121.4
121.5
122.7
122.8
122.2
122.6
122.8
'113.5
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
122.5
124.2
123.6
124.5
'113.7
'114.2
May
'125.2
'126.0
114.9
114.7
July
Sept
Oct
Dec
July/7
1
'113.7
113.0
'113.8
'113.9
'113.9
'113.5
113.7
114.2
114.0
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
96.7
100.0
109.4
115.7
120.6
122.9
115.8
111.0
112.3
115.8
98.8
100.0
104.6
108.5
110.1
108.7
107.5
103.4
107.3
109.0
99.6
100.0
103.9
108.8
114.5
117.8
115.8
107.1
110.4
110.0
96.2
100.0
105.9
109.2
109.4
108.4
108.2
105.5
111.0
116.8
116.4
115.4
112.8
116.5
113.4
115.0
116.6
117.7
109.6
110.0
110.1
110.1
108.1
107.2
107.5
108.5
'113.3
'112.2
'113.7
'110.7
'112.1
'109.5
'110.6
'110.8
'115.4
'115.2
'117.9
'118.6
'117.6
'116.7
'116.0
'126.1
117.7
121.0
113.6
117.2
119.9
115.3
108.7
109.0
109.6
'111.1 '113.1
114.5
'109.2
'111.1 '118.8
'110.5 '113.6
113.6
'111.4
'108.5
109.0
Consumer prices (1982-84=10(1; NSA)
United
Kingdom
United
States '
Italy
104.8
104.9
105.7
108.0
111.4
115.0
116.9
118.5
119.3
119.2
117.2
120.9
124.2
128.6
133.0
137.2
140.6
143.5
145.9
148.4
104.7
104.9
106.3
109.2
112.2
116.2
120.9
125.2
128.6
130.8
128.5
134.4
141.1
150.4
159.5
169.8
178.8
186.3
193.6
113.0
113.4
118.4
123.2
129.3
135.5
143.1
145.2
147.9
148.2
151.4
113.0
112.6
113.1
113.6
114.1
113.0
113.6
114.0
152.2
152.5
152.5
152.9
153.2
153.7
153.6
153.5
151.6
151.6
151.9
151.8
151.8
151.8
152.0
151.8
119.6
119.5
118.7
118.9
119.7
119.4
118.9
119.0
148.3
148.3
148.0
148.7
149.2
149.3
149.5
149.6
130.7
131.1
131.5
131.2
131.1
131.0
131.0
131.4
203.5
204.6
204.7
205.4
206.0
113.1
113.7
114.4
113.7
154.4
154.9
155.7
156.3
156.6
156.7
157.0
152.2
152.4
153.0
153.4
153.9
153.7
153.7
118.9
118.7
118.9
119.7
119.9
119.5
149.9
150.4
151.3
151.6
151.9
151.7
151.3
131.5
132.2
132.2
132.3
132.6
132.8
136.1
209.0
209.6
104.8
107.0
106.7
102.8
102.7
'104.9
'110.1
'114.7
126.2
Data relate to all urban (Consumers.
Germariy
France
109.6
113.6
118.3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
96.2
100.0
113.4
112.1
Japan
Canada
United
Kingdom
114.9
119.7
125.6
135.4
148.2
156.9
162.7
165.3
169.3
175.2
204.0
175.8
176.0
175.2
176.1
176.9
176.0
176.0
177.1
207.1
208.3
208.7
176.5
177.3
178.0
179.3
179.6
179.8
179.1
210.2
211.4
212.2
212.7
Scum;: National sources as reported by Department of (Commerce (Bureau of Economic
Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis).
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Goods: Imports (customs value)
Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)
Serviecs
(BOP basis)
Balance of trade
(expo s minus imports)
Census basis (by end-use category)
(Census basis (by end-use category) '
BOP basis
Period
BOP
basis
Auto- ConInmo- sumer
Captive goods
ital
Foods, dustrial
goods velii- (nonTotal, feeds,
sup- except clcs, food)
Census and
plies auto- parts exbevbasis*
rapt
and
moerages and
mate- tive
en- automorials
gines
tive
223 3
250.2
320.2
362.1
389.3
416.9
440.4
456.8
502.5
575.9
2272
254.1
322.4
363.8
393.6
421.7
448.2
465.1
512.6
584.7
223
24.3
32.3
37.2
35.1
35.7
40.3
40.6
41.9
50.5
1995: June
July
Aug
Sept
(X*
Nov
Dec
47.8
46.6
48.7
49.7
49.5
49.8
50.1
48.6
47.3
49.5
50.3
50.3
50.6
50.9
3.9
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.4
4.4
4.5
1996: Jan
Fcb
Apr
May'
June
48.6
50.9
50.7
51.4
51.2
49.3
51.7
51.6
52.5
52.1
4.7
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.5
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1
2
Total,
Census
basis2
75.8
57 3
86.2
66.7
85.) 109.2
99.3 138.8
104.4 152.7
109.7 166.7
109.1 175.9
111.8 181.7
121.4 205.2
146.3 233.0
21.7
24.6
29.3
34.8
37.4
40.0
47.0
52.4
57.6
61.8
14.2
17.7
23.1
36.4
43.3
45.9
51.4
54.7
60.0
64.4
368.4
409.8
447.2
477.4
498.3
491.0
536.5
589.4
668.6
749.4
365.4
406.2
441.0
473.2
495.3
488.5
532.7
580.7
663.3
743.4
24.4
24.8
24.8
25.1
26.6
26.5
27.6
27.9
31.0
33.2
12.7
11.9
12.1
12.4
12.5
11.9
12.1
19.5
19.1
20.0
19.8
20.3
20.7
21.2
4.8
4.8
5.1
5.6
5.2
5.1
5.2
.4
.5
.4
.5
.5
.5
63.6
62.5
62.2
62.9
62.6
62.1
62.7
62.7
62.3
61.9
62.7
62.2
61.8
62.5
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
11.9
12.2
12.7
12.5
12.3
19.9
21.3
21.1
21.1
20.8
5.2
5.4
4.9
5.4
5.5
.5
.8
.8
.9
6.0
64.2
63.7
66.3
68.2
65.6
63.9
63.3
64.7
66.9
64.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.
Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.
BOP
basis
Auto- ConInmo- sumer
CapFoods dustive goods
ital
trial goods
vehi- (nonfeeds, supexcept cles, food)
and
plies auto- parts
|X!Vexcept
and
moerages and
automate- tive
enr
morials
gines
tive
2
Exports
Imports
Goo-Is,
Census
basis
Goods
Services
Goods
and
services
71.8
101.3
84.5
111.0
118.3 101.4
132.3 113.3
143.2 116.4
131.6 120.7
138.6 134.3
145.6 152.4
162.0 184.4
180.7 221.4
78.2
85.2
87.7
86.1
87.3
85.7
91.8
102.4
118.3
124.8
79.4
88.7
95.9
102.9
105.7
108.0
122.7
134.0
146.3
160.0
85.9
98.3
110.9
127.0
147.5
1 63.8
177.3
186.1
195.8
210.6
81.0
91.7
99.5
103.5
118.8
119.6
1 19.5
125.5
134.1
142.2
- 138.3
- 152.1
-118.5
-109.4
-101.7
-66.7
— 84.5
-115.6
-150.6
-158.7
-145.1
-159.6
- 127.0
-115.2
- 109.0
-74.1
-96.1
-132.6
-166.1
-173.4
4.9
6.6
11.4
23.5
28.7
44.2
57.8
60.6
61.7
68.4
— 140.1
-152.9
- 1 15.5
-91.8
-80.3
-29.9
— 38.3
-72.0
-104.4
-105.1
15.7
15.2
14.8
15.3
14.7
14.9
14.8
18.6
18.8
18.8
19.0
19.5
19.2
19.3
10.3
10.0
10.2
10.2
9.6
9.9
10.3
13.3
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.1
13.2
17.2
17.8
18.1
18.4
18.0
18.2
18.0
11.9
11.9
12.1
12.0
11.8
12.0
11.8
-14.1
-15.0
-12.4
-12.4
-11.9
-11.2
-11.6
-15.9
-15.9
-13.4
-13.2
-13.1
- 12.3
-12.6
5.2
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.2
-10.6
-10.1
-7.4
-6.9
-6.9
-6.1
-6.4
15.6
14.7
16.6
17.0
16.3
19.5
19.4
18.8
19.0
18.6
10.6
10.6
10.5
11.5
10.8
13.5
13.7
13.5
14.2
13.8
17.8
18.3
18.3
18.5
18.5
12.0
12.2
12.3
12.3
12.2
-14.5
-11.6
-13.1
-14.4
-12.7
-15.5
-12.8
-15.6
-16.8
-14.5
5.8
6.1
6.0
6.2
6.3
-9.7
-6.7
-9.6
-10.5
-8.1
NOTE.—BO!' refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. HOI* data
shown here are consistent with figures shown oil pp. 36 and 37.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of t!ie Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the first quarter of 1996, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $42.7 billion, from $38.0 billion in the fourth
quarter of 1995. The current account deficit rose to $35.6 billion, from $30.4 billion in the fourth quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS *
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
-40
45
-45 ~
-50
-50
198«
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits ( + ), debits ( — ) ]
Goods '
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 ....
1994
1995
1994- I
II
III
IV
1995: I
II
Ill
IV
. ..
1996:
. ..
IP
1
Investment income
Services
Exports
Imports
Net
balance
223,344
250,208
320,230
362,120
389,307
416,913
440,352
456,832
502,463
575,940
118,462
122,909
127,237
133,855
138,551
142,983
144,984
149,422
150,019
-368,425
-409,765
-447,189
-477,365
-498,337
-490,981
-536,458
-589,441
-668,584
- 749,364
-155,301
-163,993
-171,652
-177,638
- 183,474
-190,910
-187,532
-187,448
-192,757
- 145,081
- 159,557
-126,959
-115,245
- 109,030
- 74,068
-96,106
-132,609
-166,121
-173,424
-36,839
-41,084
-44,415
-43,783
-44,923
-47,927
-42,548
- 38,026
Net
travel Other
Net
military
and
trans- servtransPporta- ices,
acnet
tion
tions 2 *
receipts
-5,181
-3,844
- 6,320
-6,749
-7,599
-5,274
-1,448
880
1,963
3,585
-38
367
1,171
463
628
859
1,120
978
628
-42,738
- 8,484
-7,613
-2,591
4,043
8,002
17,032
20,484
20,026
16,711
18,361
4,016
4,221
3,758
4,717
3,770
3,834
5,087
5,670
5,410
18,609
18,097
20,352
26,192
28,291
32,440
38,805
39,665
43,068
46,415
10,159
10,614
11,039
11,257
11,010
11,410
12,006
11,987
12,348
Adjnstod from Census data for diffm;n(*s in timing and coverage; excludes military.
2
Transfers under H..S. mifita/y agtwty saltw wntrarts (exacts) minus tiircc.t <M«nsft <!xp«ri<Jitim>s (imports).
36
Balance
on
goods
and
services
Receipts Payments
on U.S. on foreign
assets assets in
U.S.
abroad
-140,136
-152,918
-115,518
-91,758
- 80,336
-29,872
-38,264
- 72,039
-104,379
- 105,064
- 22,702
-25,882
-28,447
- 27,346
-29,515
-31,824
-24,335
-19,391
-24,352
91,976
100,767
129,070
152,517
160,300
137,003
119,046
119,900
141,704
182,659
31,841
33,287
37,212
39,368
44,100
46,779
45,269
46,513
47,983
-79,095
-91,302
-115,722
-138,639
-139,402
-121,159
- 107,851
-110,158
- 145,863
-190,674
-30,678
-33,923
-38,801
-42,462
-45,000
-47,641
-49,630
-48,403
-48,378
Net
12,881
9,465
13,348
13,878
20,897
15,844
11,195
9,742
- 4,159
-8,016
1,163
-636
- 1,589
- 3,094
-900
-862
- 4,361
-1,890
-395
Balance
on goods, Unilateral
services, transfers,
net 4
and
income
- 127,255
- 143,453
-102,170
-77,880
-59,439
-14,028
-27,069
-62,297
-108,539
-113,079
-21,539
-26,518
-30,036
-30,440
-30,415
-32,686
-28,696
-21,281
-24,747
-24,833
-23,939
-26,266
-27,696
-35,219
4,510
-35,514
-37,640
-39,866
- 35,075
-8,169
-9,507
-9,975
-12,215
-8,639
-8.290
- 8,992
-9,154
-10,841
Balance
on
current
account
-152,088
-167,392
- 128,436
-105,575
-94,657
-9,518
-62,583
- 99,936
- 148,405
-148,254
-29,708
- 36,025
-40,011
-42,655
- 39,054
- 40,976
-37,688
- 30,435
-35,588
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $4.5 billion in the first quarter
of 1996, in contrast to an increase of $7.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 1995. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners
reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, decreased $29.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to
an increase of $32.8 billion in the fourth quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS *
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[inerease/capit
)]
Period
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1994:
I
II
Ill
rv
1995:
I
1996:
IP
II
Ill
IV
f)
U.S.
official
reserve
assets;i f)
-106,753
312
-72,617
9,149
-100,087
-3,912
-168,744 -25,293
-74,011 -2,158
-57,881
5,763
-68,622
3,901
-194,609
-1,379
-150,695
5,346
-307,856
-9,742
-36,897
-59
-28,627
3,537
-25,569
-165
-59,603
2,033
-61,747
t),o .10
-108,299
-2,722
-39,595
-1,893
-98,214
191
-55,732
17
Other U.S.
Government
assets
-2,022
1,006
2,967
1,259
2,307
2,911
-1,657
-342
-341
-280
399
491
-288
-943
-154
-179
252
-199
52
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase/capital inflow ( + )]
U.S.
private
assets
-105,044
-82,771
-99,141
-144,710
-74,160
- 66 555
- 70,866
-192,889
-155 700
-297,834
-37,237
-32,655
-25 116
-60,693
-56,275
- 105,398
-37,954
-98,206
-55,801
Total
226,111
242,983
240,265
218,490
122,192
94,241
154,285
250,996
285,376
424,462
83,235
45,889
83,619
72,632
90,995
115,421
118,816
99,229
98,816
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDlls), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
Foreign
official
assets :J
Other
foreign
assets
35,648
45,387
39,758
8,503
33,910
17,389
40,477
72,153
40,253
109,757
11,036
9,166
19,785
266
21,822
37,380
39,186
11,369
51,582
190,463
197,596
200,507
209,987
88,282
76,853
113,808
178,843
245,123
314,705
72,199
36,723
63,834
72,366
69,173
78,041
79,630
87,860
47,234
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
Total (sum
Of which:
drawing
Seasonal
of the items
rights
with sign
adjustment
(SDRs)
discrepancy
reversed)
32,729
-2,974
-11,743
55,830
46.476
-26,843
-23,080
43,550
13,724
31,548
-16,630
18,763
-18,039
29,626
9,806
33,854
-41,533
29,420
-7,496
5,105
274
- 6,490
1,107
6,519
-266
-7,407
1,153
6,365
U.S. official
reserve
assets, net-1"'
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
48,511
45,798
47,802
74,609
83,316
77,721
71,323
73,442
74,335
85,832
76,809
75,732
76,532
74,335
86,761
90,063
87,152
85,832
84,212
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
Page
TOTAL OUTPUT. INCOME, AND SPENDING
Gross Domestic Product
Real Gross Domestic Product
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product
Quantity and Price Indexes for GDP and Percent Changes
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Real Gross Private Domestic Investment
Real Private Fixed Investment by Type
Business Investment and Plans
,
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Employment Cost Index—Private Industry
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction .,
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Consumer Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
,
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
P Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
nr.
38
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