Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1979

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$)6th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators
August 1979

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1979

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Chairman
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman
SENATE
WILLIAM PR0XMIRE (Wisconsin)
ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)
ROGER W. JEPSEN (Iowa)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)
WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)
LEE H HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)

JOHN M. ALBERTINE, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman
GEORGE C. EADS
LYLE E. GRAMLEY

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION fSJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a
sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at
'Arms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to
the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic
Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copy
or by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

ii




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

According to revised estimates for the second quarter, gross national product rose $37.3 billion or 6.7 percent, both
at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) fell 2.4 percent from the first quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 9.2 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,600

(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
2,600
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

2,400

2,400

2,200

2,200

2,000

2,000
GNP
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

1,800

1,800

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400

1,200

1,200
GNP
IN 1972 DOLLARS

1,000

1,000
1972

1975

1973

1977

1976

1979

1978

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates ]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

1968
868.5 535.9
1969
935.5 579.7
1970
982.4 618.8
1971
1, 063. 4 668.2
1972
1, 171. 1 733.0
1973_.
1, 306. 6 809.9
1974
1, 412. 9 889.6
1975. _ _ _ 1, 528. 8 979. 1
1976. _ _ 1, 702. 2 1, 089. 9
1977
1} 899. 51, 210. 0
1978. _ _
23 127. 61, 350. 8
1977:111.. _ 1, 930. 5 1, 220. 6
IV___ 1, 971. 31, 259. 7
1978:1
2, Oil. 3 1, 287. 2
!!___ 2, 104. 21, 331. 2
III.. 2, 159. 61, 369. 3
IV___ 2, 235. 21, 415. 4
1979: I
2, 292. 1 1, 454. 2
II*-. 2, 329. 4I, 475. 2

and imf >orts of
goocIs and ser vices

private
domestic
investment

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total

131.5
146.2
140.8
160.0
188.3
220. 0
214.6
190.9
243. 0
303.3
351. 5
315.7
316.9
327.0
352. 3
356.2
370.5
373.8
395.7

2.3
1.8
3.9
1.6
-3.3
7. 1
6.0
20.4
8.0
-9.9
-10. 3
-6.3
-18. 1
-22. 2
-7.6
-6.8
-4. 5
4.0
-7.6

49.9
54.7
62.5
65.6
72.7
101.6
137.9
147.3
163.3
175.9
207.2
180. 1
174.2
184.4
205. 7
213. 8
224.9
238. 5
244.0

47.7
52.9
58.5
64. 0
75.9
94. 4
131.9
126.9
155.4
185.8
217. 5
186.4
192.3
206. 6
213.3
220. 6
229. 4
234.4
251.6

198.7
207.9
218.9
233.7
253. 1
269.5
302.7
338.4
361.3
396. 2
435.6
400.5
412.8
419.4
428.3
440. 9
453.8
460. 1
466. 1

Federal

» This categoi y eorrespoiids closely with budget outlays for national defe nse,
shown on p. 33.




Go^/eminent purchases of goods and
services

Exporlbs
Gross

Total

98.0
97.5
95.6
96.2
102. 1
102.2
111. 1
123.1
129.7
144.4
152.6
145.6
151. 2
150. 9
148.2
152.3
159. 0
163.6
161.5

National
defense l

76.9
76.3
73.5
70.2
73.5
73.5
77.0
83.7
86.4
93. 7
99.0
93.9
96.4
97. 6
98.2
99. 0
101.2
103.4
106.0

Nondefense
21.2
21. 2
22. 1
26.0
28.6
28.7
34. 1
39.4
43.3
50.6
53.6
51. 7
54. 8
53. 3
50.0
53.3
57.8
60.2
55.5

State
and
local
100.7
110.4
123.2
137.5
151.0
167.3
191.5
215.4
231.6
251.8
283. 0
254.9
261.6
268.5
280. 1
288. 6
294. 8
296. 5
304.6

So orce: Department of Coirtmerce, Bureau of Eeonornic Analysis.

*

Final
sales

860. 8
926.2
978.6
1, 057. 1
1, 161. 7
1, 288. 6
1, 404. 0
1, 539. 6
1, 692. 1
1, 877. 6
2, 105. 2
1, 902. 9
1, 952. 9
1, 988. 5
2, 078. 4
2, 139. 5
2, 214. 5
2, 272. 9
2, 294. 7

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
IBillions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Gross private dc>mestic
iiivestment

Exjjorts of g(>ods
and service^s

Governrnent pure bases of
gooc s and sen^ices

Personal
Gross
connational sumption
product
expenditures

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential
fixed

1, 051. 8
1, 078. 8
1, 075. 3
1, 107. 5
1, 171. 1
1, 235. 0
1, 217. 8
1, 202. 3
1? 273. 0
1, 340. 5
1, 399. 2

633.4
655. 4
668.9
691.9
733.0
767.7
760. 7
7746
820.6
861.7
900. 8

108. 0
114.3
110. 0
108.0
116.8
131.0
130.6
113. 6
119.0
129.3
140. 1

42.8
43. 2
40. 4
52. 2
62. 0
59. 7
45. 0
38. 8
47. 8
57.7
60. 1

8.7
10. 6
4.3
6.6
9.4
16.5
8. 0
-9.8
6.6
13. 1
14. 1

-0.4
-1.3
1.4
-.6
-3.3
7. 6
15.9
22. 6
15. 8
10.3
11.0

58.5
62. 2
67. 1
67.9
72. 7
87.4
93. 0
90.0
96. 1
98.4
108. 9

58.9
63. 5
65. 7
68.5
75. 9
79.9
77. 1
67.5
80.4
88.2
97.9

259.2
256. 7
250. 2
249.4
253. 1
252. 5
257. 7
262. 6
263. 3
268. 5
273.2

128. 3
121.8
110.7
103. 9
102. 1
96. 6
95.8
96.5
96.4
100. 6
98. 6

130.9
134. 9
139. 5
145. 5
151. 0
155.9
161. 8
166. 1
166. 9
167.9
174. 6

1, 043. 1
1, 068. 2
1, 071. 0
1, 100. 9
1, 161. 7
1, 218. 5
1, 209. 9
1, 212. 1
1, 266. 4
1, 327. 4
I, 385. 1

1977: III__ 1, 353. 9
IV__ 1, 361. 3

863. 7
880.9

130.8
131.7

59.3
60. 1

16. 6
11. 3

13. 2
5.8

100. 5
97. 3

87. 3
91.4

270.3
271. 5

101. 8
101.8

168. 5
169. 8

1, 337. 3
1, 350. 0

8
2
3
6

882.7
894.8
905. 3
920.3

133. 1
140. 3
141. 6
145.5

59.4
60. 9
60.2
60. 0

16. 5
15.6
12. 2
12. 0

5.3
12.3
13.3
12. 9

100.7
109.2
111. 9
113.8

95. 4
96.9
98.5
101.0

270. 7
271. 3
274.7
276. 0

99. 9
96.6
98. 5
99.3

170. 9
174.7
176. 2
176.6

1, 351.
1, 379.
1, 395.
1, 414.

1979: I— _ 1, 430. 6
II *_ 1, 422. 1

921.8
914.8

147.2
145.9

57.7
57.2

12. 3
18.5

17. 0
13.4

117.0
116. 2

100. 0
102. 8

274. 7
272.3

101. 1
98.2

173.6
174. 1

1, 418. 4
1, 403. 6

Period

1968
1969
1970
1971__
1972__
1973__
1974
1975__
1976
1977
1978

__
__
„_
__

1978: !___„
!!___
III__
IV__

1, 367.
1, 395.
1, 407.
1, 426.

Change
in busiNoi
iM
et
ness in- exports
ventories

Exports Imports

Total

Federal

State
and
local

Final
sales

3
6
1
6

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Gross
national
product

Period

Persona i consumr.>tion expenditures

Total

1968
1969
1970_ __
1971_
1972
1973__ _
1974
1975_ _ _
1976_
1977_
_
1978-

___

__

1977: III_ _
IV
1978:1
II

III__
IV
II 9

NonresNonDurable durable
Services identi al
fixed
goods

Governnlent purchases c)f goods
and sc rvices

Exports Imports Federal

State
and
local

84.6
88. 5
92. 5
96. 6
100.0
105. 5
116.9
126.4
132. 8
140. 4
150. 0

90. 7
93. 1
95. 5
99. 0
100.0
101. 6
108. 4
117. 7
124.3
129. 4
136. 5

85. 3
89.4
93. 6
96. 6
100. 0
107. 9
123.8
133.4
138. 1
144. 7
154.6

82.0
86. 1
90. 5
95.8
100.0
104.7
113. 6
123.2
131.2
140.7
150. 9

82.6
86. 6
91. 3
96. 4
100.0
103. 8
115. 3
132.2
138. 5
146. 6
157. 8

80. 7
87.7
90. 6
94. 9
100.0
110. 8
122. 3
132.8
142. 5
159. 3
179. 7

85. 3
87.9
93. 1
96. 6
100.0
116. 2
148. 3
163.6
169. 9
178. 7
190. 3

80. 9
83. 3
89. 1
93.5
100.0
118. 2
171.0
188.0
193. 3
210. 7
222. 1

76. 4
80. 0
86. 4
92. 6
100.0
105. 8
115.9
127. 5
134. 6
143. 6
154. 8

76. 9
81. 9
88.3
94. 5
100.0
107. 3
118.4
129.7
138. 8
150. 0
162. 1

142. 59
144. 82

141.3
143. 0

129. 5
130.9

145. 4
146. 8

142. 0
144. 1

147. 7
150. 8

160. 1
166. 2

179. 1
179. 1

213. 4
210.3

143. 0
148. 6

151. 3
154. 1

147. 05

, 156. 68

153. 45

145. 8
148.8
151.3
153. 8

133. 0
135. 6
137.9
139.4

150. 0
153. 7
155.7
158. 6

146. 8
149. 4
152.3
155. 0

153.
156.
159.
162.

0
0
6
3

169.3
176. 7
183. 1
189. 5

183. 1
188.4
191. 1
197. 6

216.6
220. 2
223. 9
227.2

151. 1
153.4
154. 6
160. 1

157. 1
160. 3
163. 8
166.9

160. 22
163. 79

157. 8
161.3

142. 4
144. 1

164. 1
168.8

158. 0
161. 0

165.4
169.7

192. 6
198.4

203. 9
210. 0

234. 5
244. 8

161.9
164. 5

170. 8
174. 9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Residential
fixed

Expor ts and
imports of goods
and sejrvices

82.57
86.72
_ 91. 36
96. 02
100. 00
105. 80
116.02
127. 15
133. 71
_ 141. 70
152. 05

_ _ 150. 82

1979: I—

Gross private
dom estic
invest:ment

CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annua! rates]
Gross national f roduct

Period

1968
1969
1970-.
1971- — . —
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976_
_ _
1977
„ _
1978-_ _
1977:111
IV
1978:1II

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

—

——
_ _
—

_

_ _

III
IV

1979:1II 9

Implicit
price
deflator

4. 4
2.6
-.3
3.0
5.7
5.5
-1.4
— 1.3
5.9
5.3
4.4
7.0
2.2
1.9
8.3
3.5
5.6
1. 1
-2.4

9.1
7.7
5.0
8.2
10. 1
11.6
8. 1
8.2
11.3
11.6
12.0
12. 1
8.7
8.4
19.8
10.9
14.8
10.6
6.7

Gross c lomestic p>roduct
Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

Chain
price
index

4.5
5.0
5.4
5. 1
4. 1
5.8
9.7
9.6
5.2
6.0
7.3
4.8
6.4
6.3
10.6
7.2
8.7
9.3
9.2

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from
previous quarter.

4.4
5.0
5.3
5.0
4. 1
6.0
9.9
9.4
5.6
6.3
7.4
5.0
6.8
6.8
9.4
8.2
8.6
9.7
8.6

4.3
5.0
5.2
4.9
4.0
6.0
10.2
9.3
5.6
6.4
7.5
5. 1
7.2
6.8
9.6
8.3
8.9
9.9
9.3

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

4.4
2.6
-.3
2.8
5.8
5.4
-1.3
— 1. 1
5.7
5.3
4.4
6.9
2.4
1.8
8.1
3.6
5.6
.9
2.2

9. 1
7.8
5.0
8. 1
10.1
11.5
7.9
8.5
11.2
11.5
12. 0
12.0
9. 1
8. 1
19. 6
11. 1
14.8
10. 1
6.8

Implicit
price
deflator
4.5
5. 1
5.3
5. 1
4. 1
5.7
9.3
9.7
5. 1
5.9
7.3
4.7
6.6
6.2
10.6
7.2
8.7
9. 1
9. 1

Chain
price
index

4.4
5. 0
5.3
5.0
4. 1
5.9
9.6
9.4
5.6
6. 2
7.4
4.9
7.0
6.7
9.4
8.2
8.7
9.6
8.5

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)
4.4
5.0
5.2
4.9
4.0
5.9
9.9
9.3
5.6
6. 4
7.5
5.0
7.3
6.8
9.7
8.3
8.9
9.9
9. 1

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross d omestic
prodi ict of
nonfin ancial
corp<jrate
busi ness
(billic)ns of
doll sirs)

Period

Current-do lar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars) i

Total
cost
and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
Compenallowances Indirect sation
business
with
of
capital taxes 3 employees
consumption
adjustment

Net
interest

Corpo rate profi ts with
invent*Dry valualAon and
capit al consuniption
£idjustmen ts

Total

Profits
tax
liability

Profits
after
tax *

ComOutput
penper
sation
hour
per
of all
hour
employ- of all
ees
employ(1972
ees
dollars) (dollars)

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

452.9
498.4
541. 8
560.6
602.5
671.0
752. 0
808.8
874. 1
988. 0
__ 1, 106. 3
1, 246. 9

545.8
581.6
607.3
600. 6
619.3
671.0
720.4
695.0
680.0
730.4
770.7
818.7

0.830
.857
.892
.933
.973
1.000
1. 044
1. 164
1.285
1.353
1.436
1.523

0.072
.074
.079
.088
.094
.093
.095
. 116
. 142
. 146
. 151
. 155

0.084
.089
.094
. 103
. 110
. 110
. 112
. 123
. 136
. 137
. 140
. 143

0.535
.553
.589
.628
.645
.661
.699
.796
.848
.890
.951
1.020

0.016
.017
.022
.028
.029
.028
.032
.043
.045
.042
.043
.048

0. 123
. 124
. 109
.086
.095
. 107
. 105
.086
. 113
. 138
. 151
. 157

0.051
.058
.055
.045
. 048
.050
.055
.061
.060
.072
.077
.084

0. 072
. 066
.055
. 041
. 046
. 057
.050
. 024
.053
.066
.074
. 073

6.906
7. 133
7. 154
7. 147
7.389
7.631
7. 790
7.492
7.726
7.973
8.086
8. 222

3.694
3.944
4. 207
4.487
4766
5. 047
5. 447
5.961
6.554
7. 098
7.686
8.384

1977:III__ 1, 128. 9
IV___ 1, 148. 6

778.5
782.9

1.450
1.467

. 151
. 154

. 140
. 142

.954
.975

.044
.046

. 161
. 150

.077
.078

.084
.073

8. 138
8. 102

7.765
7.901

1, 169. 1
1, 236. 5
1, 267. 9
1, 314. 1

789.8
817. 1
826.3
841.4

1.480
1.513
1.534
1.562

. 156
. 154
. 155
. 155

. 143
. 144
. 142
. 143

1.002
1.009
1.024
1. 042

.047
.047
.049
.050

. 132
. 159
. 163
. 171

.071
.085
.086
.093

.061
.074
.077
.078

8. 120
8.213
8. 259
8.297

8. 136
8.288
8. 462
8.643

1, 346. 4
1979:1
II *__ 1, 368. 7

846.6
840. 1

1.590
1. 629

. 158
. 165

. 145
. 148

1.075
1. 105

. 052
. 054

. 161
. 158

. 088
. 085

. 072
. 073

8.259
8. 191

8. 878
9. 049

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977_ _
1978

1978:1
II___
III__
IV___

1
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate
business
in 1972 dollars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate
business
with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments
less subsidies.




4

With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
NOTE.—Data for output per hour and compensation per hour revised beginning
1972.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

National
income

Period

Propr ietors'
incom e with
inventor y valuation anc L capital
consulnption
adjust ments

Compensation of
employees l

Farm

Nonfarm

"Rpntfll

income
of persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Corpor ate profits5 with inventory va luation
and capital consumptio]Q. adjustm ents
Profits with inv entory
valua ion ad jus tment
and Twithout cabpital
consum ption adjiistment
Total
Total

Profits
before
tax

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Capital
consumption
adjustment

Net
interest

519.8
714.4
571.4
767.9
609.2
798.4
650.3
858. 1
715. 1
951.9
799.2
1, 064. 6
875.8
1, 136. 0
931. 1
1, 215. 0
1, 359. 8 1, 037. 8
1, 525. 8 1, 156. 9
1, 724. 3 1, 304. 5

12. 0
13.9
13. 9
14.3
18.0
32.0
25.4
23.5
18.3
19.6
27.7

51. 4
52.3
51. 2
53.4
58. 1
60.4
60.9
63.5
71.0
80.5
89. 1

18.6
18. 1
18.6
20. 1
21.5
21. 6
21.4
22.4
22. 1
24.7
25.9

85.8
81.4
67.9
77.2
92. 1
99. 1
83.6
95.9
126. 8
150.0
167. 7

82. 1
77.9
66.4
76.9
89.6
97.2
86.5
107. 9
141.3
162.0
180. 8

85.6
83.4
71.5
82.0
96.2
115.8
126. 9
120.4
156. 0
177. 1
206. 0

-3.4
-5.5
5. 1
-5.0
-6.6
-18.6
-40.4
-12.4
-14. 6
-15.2
— 25.2

3.7
3.5
1.5
.3
2.5
1.9
-2.9
-12.0
-14.5
-12.0
-13. 1

26.8
30.8
37.5
42.8
47. 0
52.3
69.0
78.6
83.8
94.0
109. 5

1977:111
IV

1, 551. 1 1, 170. 7
_ _ _ 1, 589. 8 1, 205. 5

16.8
24. 7

81.7
82.9

25.2
25.5

160.8
153.0

172.0
166.0

180. 9
183.0

-8.9
-17.0

-11.2
-13.0

95.8
98.2

1978:1II
III. _
IV

1, 621. 0
__ 1, 703. 9
1, 752. 5
_ 1, 820. 0

1, 244. 0
1, 288. 2
1, 321. 1
1, 364. 8

25.7
27.7
26. 1
31. 3

83.4
87.3
91.3
94.4

25.2
24.4
26. 8
27. 1

141.2
169. 4
175.2
184.8

153. 6
182.0
189.0
198.6

177.5
207.2
212.0
227.4

-23. 9
-25. 1
-23. 0
-28.8

-12. 4
-12.6
-13.8
-13.8

101.5
106.8
111.9
117.6

1, 869. 0 1, 411. 2
1, 897. 0 1, 439. 4

34.2
33.7

94.8
95.5

27.3
26.8

178.9
175.5

193.3
190.3

233.3
226.9

-39.9
-36.6

-14.5
-14.7

122.6
126.0

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973__
1974 __
1975
1976.
1977
1978

.

1979:1
II »-_
1

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted Annual rates]
D urable goo ds

Period

Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Total
durable
goods *

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Retail sales of
new passenger
cars (nlillions
of ujaits)

Nondurable goods
Furniture
and
household

Total
nondurable1
goods

Food

Services

Clothing
and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

225.6
247.2
269. 1
293.4
322.4
352. 3
391. 3
437.5
488.5
549.8
619.8

8.6
8.5
7. 1
8.7
9.3
9.7
7.5
7. 1
8. 6
9. 1
9.3

1.0
1. 1
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2. 1
2.0

558.7
574. 1

8.9
9.0

2.0
2.0

Domestics

Imports

ment

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

535.9
579.7
618.8
668.2
733.0
809.9
889.6
979. 1
1, 089. 9
1, 210. 0
_ 1, 350. 8
1977: III____ 1, 220. 6
IV
1, 259. 7
1978:1
1, 287. 2
II
1, 331. 2
III_.__ 1, 369. 3
IV
1, 415, 4
1979:1
1, 454. 2
I I * _ _ _ 1, 475. 2

80.0
85.5
849
97. 1
111.2
123. 7
122.0
132. 6
157.4
178.8
200. 3

35.8
37.7
34.9
43.8
50.6
55.2
48.0
53.4
70.0
81. 6
91.2

32.6
35.0
36.7
39.4
44.8
50.7
549
58.0
64.0
70.9
77.6

230.4
247.0
264.7
277.7
299.3
333.8
376.3
408.9
443.9
481.3
530.6

118.3
126. 1
136.3
140. 6
150.4
168. 1
189.8
209.6
227. 1
246.7
271.7

41.8
45. 1
46.6
50.5
55. 1
61.3
65.3
70. 1
75.9
82.4
91. 2

178.9
186.4

80.5
83.7

71.6
74.0

483.0
499.2

248. 0
254.4

82.8
87.9

18.4
20.4
22.0
23.4
249
27.8
36.4
39.5
42. 9
46.7
50.9
46.4
47.3

185.3
200.3
203.5
212. 1

84. 1
93.5
92. 4
94.9

72.4
76.5
78.9
82.7

505. 9
521.8
536. 7
558. 1

260.6
267. 7
274.5
283. 9

85.4
89.9
92.7
96.8

48. 1
49.0
51.5
55.0

596. 0
609. 1
629. 1
645. 1

8.7
9.9
9.4
9.3

2. 1
2. 1
2.0
1.9

213.8
208.1

97.7
88.6

82. 1
84.0

571. 1
580.8

292. 9
296.2

95.5
96.9

58.4
60.4

669.3
686.2

9.3
8.1

2.3
2.5

i Total includes other items not shown separately.




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $27.2 billion (annual rate) in July/ about $10.7 billion of the gain resulted from cost-of-living
increases in social security and veterans' benefits. Personal income had risen $13.4 billion in June and $11.4 billion
in May, according to revised estimates.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
2,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
2,400

2,000
1,800
1,600

2,000
1,800
1,600

1,400

1,400
1,200

1,200
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

1,000 -

1,000
800

600

600

„„,..-'«•""
OTHER INCOME

400

400

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS
200

200

160

160

120

120

100

100

80

80

60LJJ-U

60

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1978

1977

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

1979

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Wage
Rental
Transfer
Other Proprietc)rs' income 3 income
Total
and
Divi- Personal
personal salary
paylabor 1 2
interest
dends
of
income disburseincome
income ments °
Farm
Nonfarm persons 4
1
ments

Less: PerNonsonal confarm
tributions personal
for social income 6
insurance

1971
1972___
1973 __
1974
1975
1976
1977___
1978__

579.4
859. 1
942. 5
633. 8
1, 052. 4
701. 3
1, 154. 9 764. 6
1, 255. 5
805. 9
890. 0
1, 381. 6
1, 531. 6 984.0
1, 717. 4 1, 103. 3

36.2
42.0
48. 7
55. 6
65. 1
77. 4
91. 8
106.5

14.3
18. 0
32. 0
25.4
23. 5
18. 3
19. 6
27.7

53. 4
58. 1
60. 4
60. 9
63. 5
71. 0
80.5
89. 1

-20. 1
21. 5
21. 6
21. 4
22. 4
22. 1
24.7
25.9

23. 0
24. 6
27.8
31. 0
31. 9
37. 5
42. 1
47.2

69. 3
74. 6
84. 1
103. 0
115. 5
127. 0
141. 7
163.3

94. 1
104. 1
118. 9
140.8
178. 2
193. 8
208.4
224. 1

30. 8
34. 2
42. 2
47. 7
50. 5
55. 6
61. 3
69.6

838. 0
917. 3
1,011.9
1, 119.3
1, 220. 8
1, 350. 6
1, 498. 1
1, 674. 2

1978: J u l y _ _ _
Aug
Sept___
Oct
Nov
Dec

1, 730. 0
1, 741. 3
1, 756. 1
1, 781. 0
1, 801. 4
1, 826. 8

1, 109. 7
1, 115. 0
1, 125. 9
1, 141. 7
1, 154. 4
1, 166. 8

107. 1
108.2
109. 3
110. 6
111. 9
113.2

27. 5
25.7
25. 1
27. 5
30. 0
36. 5

90. 1
91. 7
92.0
93.8
94. 3
95. 0

26. 7
26. 9
26.9
27. 1
27. 1
27. 1

47. 0
48. 0
48.5
49. 1
49.6
50. 4

164. 4
167. 1
170. 0
172.3
174.3
176.4

227. 2
228.9
228.9
230. 1
231. 5
233. 7

69.9
70. 1
70. 6
71.2
71.8
72. 3

1, 687. 0
1, 699. 9
1, 715. 0
1, 737. 3
1, 754. 9
1, 773. 6

1979: Jan
Feb____
Mar
Apr
May V—
June v—
July *>__

1, 834. 3
1, 851. 4
1, 872. 1
1,880.7
1, 892. 1
1, 905. 5
1, 932. 7

1, 177. 1
1, 188. 5
1, 202. 3
1, 205. 9
1, 210. 8
1, 219. 7
1, 228. 6

114. 5
116. 0
117.4
118.9
120. 3
121. 8
123.3

33. 0
34. 2
35. 3
34.3
33. 5
33. 4
33. 3

94.8
94.8
94. 9
95. 2
95.5
95.7
96. 3

27.2
27. 3
27. 4
26.0
27. 1
27. 2
27. 6

51. 1
51.7
51. 7
51. 9
52. 5
52.6
52. 5

178. 7
181. 0
183. 3
185. 8
188.0
190.4
192.9

236.0
236. 7
239. 2
242.3
243.9
244. 8
258.8

78. 1
78. 7
79. 4
79.5
79.7
80. 1
80.7

1, 784. 3
1, 800. 1
1, 819. 5
1. 828. 8
1, 840. 8
1, 854. 1
1, 881. 2

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs
from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions
for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare
funds;
workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory i aluation and capital consumption adjustments.
* With capital consumption adjustment.




s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans
payments.
• Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other
labor income, and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income declined in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

2,000

1,800
1,600
1,400

3,000

3,000

1980

1972
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

/^,<-,
Less:

T

POT

Period

sonal
Pertax
sona]
and
income nontax
payments

Equals :
Disposable
persona]
income

Less:
Personal
outlays l

1 Per cap ita perPer c apita
sonal ccmsumpdispc sable
persona income tion exp enditures

Equals :
Personal
saving Current
dollars

Bil lions of d ollars

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978. ___

801. 3
859. 1
942.5
1, 052. 4
1, 154. 9
1, 255. 5
1, 381. 6
1, 53L 6
1, 717. 4

115.3
116. 3
141.2
150.8
170. 3
168. 8
197. 1
226.4
259. 0

685.9
742.8
801.3
901. 7
984. 6
1, 086. 7
1, 184. 5
1, 305. 1
1, 458. 4

1972
dollars

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Percent
change
in real
per
capita
disposable
personal
income

Saving
as percent of
disposable
personal
income

2. 6

3.0

7. 4
7. 7

-2.2
1. 3
3. 0

7. 7

Population
(thou-2
sands)

Do]lars

635.4
685. 5
751. 9
831.3
913. 0
1, 003. 0
1, 115. 9
1, 240. 2
1, 386. 4

50.6
57.3
49. 4
70.3
71. 7
83. 6
68.6
65.0
72.0

3, 348
3,588
3,837
4,285
4, 646
5,088
5,504
6,017
6,672

3,020
3,619
3,714
3,227
3,510
3, 837
4,062
3,849
3,973
4, 197
4, 025
4,584
5,064
4, 144
4,285 • 5, 579
6, 179
4,449

3,265
3,342
3, 510
3, 648
3, 589
3,627
3,813
3,973
4, 121

3.3
5.9

6.2
7.8
7.3

5.8

5. 0

3.4
3.8

4.9

204, 878
207, 053
208, 846
210, 410
211,945
213, 566
215, 203
216, 898
218, 594

Seas onally ad; usted ann ual rates
71. 9
69. 5

6,094
6,256

4, 312
4, 374

5,622
5,789

3,978
4, 049

5. 6

5.4

5.9

5. 1

217, 119
217, 586

1, 320. 4
1, 366. 1
1, 405. 6
1, 453. 4

74. 6
71.2
70. 9
. 71.5

6,401
6,583
6, 748
6,954

4,389
4,425
4,461
4,522

5,906
6,097
6,258
6,455

4,050
4,098
4, 137
4, 197

1. 4
3. 3
3. 3
5. 6

5.3
5.0
4.8
4.7

217, 942
218, 335
218, 814
219, 286

1979: I
1, 852. 6 280.4 1, 572. 2 1, 493. 0
II *_ 1, 892. 8 290.7 1, 602. 1 1, 515. 3

79.2
86.8

7, 157
7,277

4, 536
4, 513

6, 619
6,700

4, 196
4, 155

-2.0

5.0

219, 690
220, 166

1977: III.. 1, 548. 5 225. 3 1, 323. 2 1, 251. 3
IV__ 1, 596. 4 235. 2 1, 361. 2 1, 291. 7
1978:I____ 1, 634. 8
!!___ 1, 689. 3
III__ 1, 742. 5
IV- _ 1, 803. 1

239.8
252. 1
266. 0
278. 2

1, 395. 0
1, 437. 3
1, 476. 5
1, 524. 8

* Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to
business,
and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and
are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the
period.




1.2

5. 4

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

FARM INCOME
According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, net farm income before inventory adjustment fell $0.2
billion (annual rate), while income after inventory adjustment fell $0.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200

too

100

_ GROSS FARM INCOME_
BEFORE INVENTORY
ADJUSTMENT

80

60

60

40

40
NET FARM INCOME
AFTER INVENTORY
ADJUSTMENT

20

20

1972

1973

1975

1974

1976

1977

1978

1979

*. SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personail income received
by tota farm po Dulation

Income re ceived fro m farmin g
1

Gross i ncome bel ore inven ;ory adjustirlent
Period

1971
1972
1973 ___ _
1974
1975
1976___ _
1977
1978___

From From From
aU
farm nonfarm
1
sources sources sources Total

28.8
34. 6
48.9
45.2
44.5
40.3
42. 9
54.0

13.5
16.9
29.2
23.4
21.9
16.8
18,0
25.2

15.3
17.8
19.7
21.8
22.7
23. 5
24. 9
28. 8

60. 6
70. 1
95.5
100.0
96.9
104.2
107.5
124.2

Net tc> farm
oper ators

CaslLi receipts from
Producrnarketing s
tion ex- Before
penses invenLivestock
tory
Total
Crops
and
adjustment
products
Billioiis of dollars
13.2
30.6
52.9
47.4
22.3
61. 2
35. 7
17.8
25.5
52.3
87. 1
41. 1
45.9
29. 9
65.6
92. 4
41.4
51. 1
72.2
27.7
88.2
43.0
21. 1
45. 1
75.9
94. 8
46. 1
21. 0
48.7
83. 1
95.7
47.4
18. 7
48. 2
88.8
111.0
59.0
52. 1
26.3
98. 1

After
inventory
adjust-2
ment

Net inco me per
farm a fter inventory ad3 justmeiit
Current
1967
dollars dollars 4
Dollars

14.6
18.7
33.3
26. 1
24. 5
18.7
19. 8
27.9

5,042
6,526
11, 813
9,349
8,846
6, 823
7,301
10, 434

4,157
5,208
8,875
6,330
5,488
4, 002
4,023
5, 340

1977:III___
IV____

103. 4
115.0

92. 1
99. 9

47. 1
50. 6

44.9
49.4

88. 5
92.4

14.9
22.6

16.9
24. 8

6, 240
9, 160

3,410
4,940

1978: I

IV

119.8
124. 3
122.2
133.4

106. 2
111. 0
109. 0
118.0

53.9
58.3
60.4
63.4

52.4
52.7
48.6
54. 6

95.0
97. 0
97.4
103. 0

24.8
27. 3
24.8
30. 4

25.8
27,8
26.3
31. 6

9,660
10, 400
9,840
11, 830

5, 110
5,370
4,980
5, 860

1979:1.
II

140.5
144. 1

127.5
130.5

70.0
67.5

57. 6
63. 0

107. 5
111.3

33. 0
32.8

34. 0
33.6

12, 940
12, 790

6,240
5,970

II _ _
III_._

* Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney
income
furnished by farms.
2
Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.
8
Based on 1969 Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of
farms is held constant within a year;
for 1979 estimated.




4

Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

CORPORATE PROFITS
According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, corporate profits before tax fell $6.4 billion (annual rate)
while after-tax profits fell $3.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
280

280

240

80

40

40

1980
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1968
1969
1970
1971___
1972_._
1973
1974
1975___ _
1976
1977
1978
1977:111
IV
1978: I
II
III
IV
1979: I
II"
1

Profil bs (before tax) wit i inventc
Dry valuiition
adjustn lent 1
Dome *tic indu stries
IS onfinan< 3ial
WholeTotal 2
Manu- sale
Total Finan3
faccial
Total
and
tur- retail
ing
trade
82. 1
41.2
78.9
68. 5
10. 1
10. 4
74. 2
62. 9
77.9
11.3
36.8
10. 1
66. 4
62.6
12. 6
27. 1
9. 4
50. 1
72.4
14. 1
32.4
76.9
58. 2
11.7
84. 7
89. 6
13.3
15.4
69. 3
40.6
97.2
90.4
16.2
74. 1
44. 1
14. 7
76. 9
86.5
14.4
62.5
12.9
36.6
101.8
107.9
13. 0
48. 3
20.7
88.9
133. 1
141.3
17.8 115.3
65.7
23.3
152. 1
162.0
23.8 128. 3
73. 5
24. 1
170. 6
180.8
81.7
29. 7 140.9
23. 0
172.0
161. 2
72.5
24.8 136.4
31.0
166.0
156.9
26. 4 130. 5
78. 1
20. 5
153.6
143.5
27.2 116.3
67. 6
17. 9
182. 0
171. 0
83.4
28.9 142. 1
22.7
189.0
30. 6 148. 3
178.8
85. 1
25.5
189.0
32. 1 156.9
90.6
198.6
25. 8
94. 1
193.3
181. 4
31.9 149. 6
18. 6
190. 3
178.7
32.4 146.3

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments.

8



2

Pro fits after tax

Profits
before
tax

Tax
liability

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

85. 6
83.4
71.5
82.0
96.2
115. 8
126.9
120.4
156. 0
177. 1
206. 0
180.9
183. 0
177. 5
207. 2
212. 0
227. 4
233. 3
226. 9

39.4
39. 7
34. 5
37.7
41. 5
48. 7
52. 4
49.8
63. 8
72. 6
84. 5
73.7
75. 1
70.8
84. 7
87. 5
95. 1
91. 3
88.2

46.2
43. 8
37.0
44. 3
54. 6
67. 1
74. 5
70. 6
92. 2
104. 5
121. 5
107. 2
107.9
106.7
122. 4
124. 6
132.3
142. 0
138. 6

21. 9
22.6
22. 9
23.0
24.6
27.8
31. 0
31.9
37.5
42. 1
47.2
42. 7
43.4
45. 1
46. 0
47.8
49. 7
51. 5
52.3

24. 2
21.2
14. 1
21.3
30.0
39. 3
43. 6
38.7
54.7
62. 4
74.3
64.6
64. 5
61. 6
76.4
76. 8
82.6
90.5
86. 3

Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
^ Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

-3.4
-5.5
-5. 1
-5. 0
-6.6
-18. 6
-40.4
-12. 4
-14. 6
-15. 2
-25.2
-8.9
-17.0
-23.9
-25. 1
-23.0
-28. 8
-39.9
-36. 6

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment rose $4.2 billion (annual rate) as
nonresidential construction outlays rose $5.0 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases fell $0.8 billion.
Residential investment outlays increased $2.3 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $34.6 billion, up $15.5
billion from the first quarter level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
450

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
450
SEASONA LLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400

./

350

GROSS PRIV ATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

<

300

_J\

250

f ^^
^

_XN

150

350

X"1

300

200

s

--/-

/

X-*-^ l

'

\

jrvmj/

*——^W

^*^

^^

250

,^^*

NONRESIDENTIAL

F IXED INVESTMEN"r

^^^"
S*
200

150

-» *"*"*'*'

„......«.«••"" „„„„„„

RESI DENTIAL
FIXED Ih^VESTMENT
\

100

""UIIIIIIII,,..
""•»»«§,.„

50

•'tniiniikt*

.„„..««*" ^""'^

100

,,i,,,..i«»*1*""1"
'CHAN GE IN BUSINESS
IMVENTORIES

50

.>— •*.
^*r

-50

1

I
1972

1

1

!

1973

I

1

1

1

\

1974

I

I

1975

S

X'

•fc**

^ ' ^ * »^

I

i

i

1976

i

i

i

1977

i

i

i

l

1978

i

t

1979

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

i

l

l

-50

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

P Mllions of dollars ; quarterlyf data ai seasona lly adjusted anmiial rates]
Noiiresident ial fixed investmcjnt

Period

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1977: III
IV
1978: I
II
III
IV
1979: I
II*

Gross
private
domestic
investment

131.5
146. 2
140. 8
160.0
188. 3
220.0
214.6
190.9
243.0
303.3
351. 5
315.7
316.9
327.0
352.3
356. 2
370. 5
373. 8
395.7

Struc tures
Total

89.3
98.9
100. 5
104. 1
116. 8
136.0
150.6
150.2
164.9
189.4
221. 1
193.2
198. 6
203. 7
218.8
225.9
236. 1
243.4
247.6

Prodileers'
dunible
equipment

Total

Nonfarm

Total

Nonfarm

31. 6
35.7
37.7
39.3
42.5
49.0
54. 5
53.8
57.3
62.6
76.5
64.2
66.2
66.9
75. 2
79.7
84.4
84.9
89.9

30.4
34.3
36. 1
37.8
41. 1
46.9
51.8
51.3
54. 7
59.8
73.3
61.2
63.3
63. 8
72. 0
76.4
81. 1
81. 2
86.3

57.7
63.3
62. 8
64. 7
74.3
87.0
96.2
96.4
107.6
126.8
144. 6
129. 0
132. 4
136. 8
143. 6
146.3
151.8
158. 5
157.7

53.4
58.9
58. 1
59.9
69. 1
80. 1
88.2
87.4
97.4
116.3
132.6
118.8
121.8
126.4
131.9
133.5
138.9
146. 1
143. 6

Resid ential fixed invesi ;ment

Total

34.5
37.9
36.6
49.6
62.0
66. 1
55. 1
51.5
68. 1
91.9
108.0
95.0
99.9
100.5
107.7
110.2
113. 7
111. 2
113.5

Nonfarm
struc—
tures

Farm
structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

33. 1
36.3
35. 1
47.9
60.3
64.3
52.7
49.5
65.7
88.8
104.4
91.7
97.0
96.8
104.3
106.4
110.0
107. 8
109.7

0.6
.7
.6
.7
.7
.6
1.2
.9
1. 1
1.5
1. 8
1. 6
1.2
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.9
1.5
1.8

0.8
.9
.9
1.0
1. 1
1.2
1.2
1. 1
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.6
1. 7
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0

Change in business mv entories

Total
7.7
9.4
3.8
6. 4
9.4
17.9
8.9
-10.7
10.0
21.9
22.3
27.5

18.5
22.8
25.8
20. 0
20.6
19. 1
34.6

Nonfarm
7.6
9.2
3.7

5. 1
8.8

14.7
10.8
-14.3
12. 1
20. 7
21. 3
25.6
15.7
22. 0
25.3
18.5
19.3
18.8
33.8

Source: Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis.




9

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Business plans to increase capital spending 1 2.7 percent in 1979, according to the Commerce Department survey conducted in late April and May. The planned increase is 1.4 percentage points higher than the planned increase reported in March.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
180

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
180
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

160

160

140

140

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
120

120

100

100
•MmiliH""1'***

80

80

NONMANUFACTURING

..«••**

„„„„....*""*"
rW,,M«««»'rt»«'**

mm*

60

60

MANUFACTURING

40

40

y
I

20

I

j

I

1971
J/

1972

1973

L

J

1975

1974

L
1976

I

I

I

I

1977

I

i

I

1978

i

20

1979

SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Starts ()f plant

E3spenditur€;s for plan t and equipment

and eqilipment
3
proj(sets

M<aimfacturi ng

Period
Total *

Total

N<Dnmanuf aeturing

Dur-

Non-

able
goods

durable
goods

Total

Com-

Commer-

Manufactur-

munication

cial

and

ing

Transportation

Public
utilities

2. 42
2.74
3. 18
3. 79
4. 00
4.50
4. 78
5. 28

5. 72
6. 03
6.66
7.57
7. 45
6.93
8.05
9. 66

17.00
18.71

4. 45
4.81
4.99
4. 98

8.46
7. 40
8.05
8. 43

31. 73

17. 07
18. 18
18.90
18.46

5.46
5. 40
5. 11
5. 26

10.08
8. 61
9.50
10. 58

32. 42
32. 79
33. 46

32.35

18.75

Mining

other

1972
1973__

1974. _
1975. .
1976.. _

1977
1978 _
1979 4 _

112. 40
112. 78
120. 49
135. 80
153. 82
_ _ 178. S3

1978:1 _ _ _ _

II-,_
III
IV
1979: I 4
II 4

III ___

IV 4

88.44
99.74

31. 35
38.01
46. 01
47. 95
52.48

60. 16
67.62

15. 64
19. 25
22. 62
21. 84
23. 68
27.77

31.66

15.72
18.76

57. 09
61.73

23.39

66.39

26. 11
28.81

64. 82
68.01

32.39
35.96

75.64

77.61

87.02

40. 59

144. 25
150. 76
155, 41
163. 96

61.57
67. 20

28. 72
31. 40
32. 25
33. 99

32. 86
35. 80

165. 94
170. SO

71.56

174. 74
180. 98

1

67.75
73.24
76.85
79.89

81.98

34.00

86. 60
38. 09
39. 10

35.50
39.26
37.56

' 89. 75
41.80
42. 88

86. 19
95. 72
82.68
83.56
87.66

90.71

94. 38
93. 95
94.85

99.01

Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not
agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national
product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,
professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays
charged to current account.

10



2
3

20.55

20. 14

22.28
25.80
29.48

S2. 76

27. 92
28.46
29.62

11.89
12. 85
13. 96
12. 74
13. 30
15.45
18. 16
19. 48

Public
utilities

2

20. 07
21. 40
22.05

20. 60
20. 99
22. 97
25. 71

35.21
47. 57
52. 49
48. 24
51. 05

28.60

38. 13
45. 74
34. 50
29.66

66.73
72.44

32, 54
34. 93

27. 12

17.41
18. 10
16. 96
19.97

7.98
7. 78
4. 40
14.00

27.73

21.98

3.27

28.54
24.76

24.71
26.09

47. 51
47. 45
49. 71

Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.
Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during
given
period.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late April and May
1979. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES

STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE

Seasonally adjusted employment rose 456,000 in July while unemployment rose 74,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

10

- 5

1971
*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Period

Noninstitutional
population

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[T bousands of persons5 16 years of age a nd over]
Unempk>yment
Civilian eimploymeDit
Total
labor
Nonagri cultural
15
Civilian
force
Civilian UnemPart-time Total weeks
Agriemploy- ploy- (includ- labor
Total
ecoand
culment
ing
force
ment
Total for
nomic
over
tural
Armed
reasons *
Forces)

5,076 93, 240 91, Oil
7,830 94, 793 92, 613
7,288 96, 917 94, 773
6,855 99, 534 97, 401
6,047 102, 537 100, 420

85,
84,
87,
90,
94,

935
783
485
546
373

2,709
3,492 82, 443
3,490
3,380 81, 403
3,272
3,297 84, 188
3,297
3,244 87, 302
3,216
3,342 91, 031
Seas<anally adjusted

5,076
7,830
7,288
6, 855
6,047

937
2,483
2,339
1,911
1,379

61.8
61. 8
62. 1
62.8
63.7

96, 202
96, 116
95, 041
96, 095
96, 029
95, 906

6,438
5,931
5,797
5,460
5, 629
5,725

102,
102,
103,
103,
103,
103,

738
785
097
199
745
975

100,
100,
100,
101,
101,
101,

94,
94,
95,
95,
95,
95,

446
723
010
241
751
855

3,377
3,351
3,406
3,374
3,275
3,387

91, 069
91, 372
91, 604
91, 867
92, 476
92, 468

3,316
3,298
3,203
3, 164
3,131
3, 058

6,176
5,940
5,964
5,836
5,877
6,012

1,314
1,234
1,268
1,317
1,196
1,208

63.8
63.7
63.8
63.8
64.0
64. 1

94, 436
94, 765
95, 501
95, 675
96, 220
97, 917
98, 891

6,431
6,484
6, 165
5,561
5,253
6,235
6, 104

104,
104,
104,
104,
104,
104,
105,

277
621
804
193
325
604
141

102, 183
102,527
102, 714
102, 111
102, 247
102, 528
103, 059

96, 300
96, 647
96, 842
96, 174
96, 318
96, 754
97, 210

3,232
3,311
3,343
3,186
3, 184
3,260
3,262

93, 068
93, 335
93, 499
92, 987
93, 134
93, 494
93, 949

3,159
3,147
3,179
3,312
3,307
3,416
3,340

5,883
5,881
5,871
5,937
5,929
5,774
5,848

1,251
1,260
1,305
1,235
1, 213
1,086
1,052

64.2
64.3
64. 3
63. 9
63.9
64.0
64.2

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978*

150,
153,
156,
158,
161,

827 85, 935
449 84, 783
048 87, 485
559 90, 546
058 94, 373
Uiaadjusted

1978: July*_
Atier__
Sept..
Oet___
Nov__
Dec__

161,
161,
161,
161,
162,
162,

148
348
570
829
033
250

1979: Jan___
Feb_
Mar__
Apr__
MayJune..
July__

162, 448
162, 633
162, 909
163, 008
163, 260
163, 469
163, 685

622
663
974
077
628
867

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc.
2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and
over.




Labor
force
participation
rate
fnpT„ _ „ x\ 2
cent) *

Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because of
revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and
to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In July the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.7 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

20

.

BLACK
AND OTHER

*"\ /

10

10

1975

1979

1975

1979

* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

1978:July.__
Aug
Sept. _
Oct
Nov
Dec__
1979:Jan__
Feb— _
Mar
Apr
May___
June. _
July__

_

___

_

_
__
_ _ _ _

_
_

_

Unernployme nt rate ( Dercent c>f civiliaii labor f<3rce in gi *oup)
]3y select ed group s
By g>ex and aige
By race

Total
(all
civilian
workers)

Men
20
years
and
over

5.6
8. 5
7. 7
7.0
6.0

3.8
6.7
5.9
5.2
4.2

6. 1
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.6
5.7

Women
20
years
and
over

White

5.5
8. 0
7.4
7.0
6.0

16. 0
19.9
19.0
17.7
16. 3

5.0
7.8
7.0
6.2
5.2

4. 1
4. 1
4. 1
4.0
3.9
4. 1

6.4
5.9
5.9
5.6
5.8
5.8

16.3
15.7
16.3
16. 2
16.2
16.5

5.2
5.2
5.2
5. 1
5.0
5.2

12.3
11.5
11.3
11.3
11.7
11.5

5.7
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.6

3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3. 9
3.9
4. 1

5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.5

15.7
16. 1
15.5
16.5
16.8
15.3
15.3

5. 1
4.9
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.9

11.2
11.9
11.2
11.8
11.6
11.3
10. 8

5.4
5.3
5.3
5. 4
5. 3
5.3
5.4

3.4
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.7

* Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



ExpeFullBlack rienced
time
wage Household
and
and
other salary
heads workers
workers
3.3
5. 1
9.9
5.3
8.2
8. 1
13.9
5.8
7.3
13. 1
5. 1
7.3
6.5
13. 1
4. 5
6.6
5.5
5.6
11.9
3.7

Both
sexes
16-19
years

Parttime
workers

Labor
force
time
lost
(per- 1
cent)

8.6
10.3
10. 1
9.8
9.0

6. 1
9. 1
8.3
7.6
6.5

5.7
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.3

8.9
8.7
8.8
9.0
8.9
9.2

6.8
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.2

5.2
5.2
5. 1
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.3

9. 1
8.6
9.2
8.8
9.6
8.6
8.2

6.2
6.2
6.1
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.4

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In July the percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers rose and the percentage who were job leavers,
reentrants, and new entrants fell.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
60

40

20

15-26
WEEKS

'--

V
27 WEEKS
AND OVER

i11ii
1976

1977

1976

1980

1977

1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
_SQUBCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1979

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percen t distribiution of iunemPi Dyment Ijy reason[ i
Period

Unemployment
(thousands)

Job
losers

Job
leavers

Reentrants

New
entrants

Percen t distribiition of iiineml
plo.y ment b?Y duratic n

Less
than 5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Insured
unemployment,
all
Insured
unem- Initial regular
proploy- claims
grams2
ment
(unadjusted)
State pi ograms

Special
unemployment
benefit3
claims
(unadjusted)

Wee kly aver age, thoussands

1974
__
1975
1976.
_
1977
1978
1978: July__
Aug__
Sept__
Oct...
Nov__
Dec..
1979: Jan.__
Feb_._
Mar__
Apr___
May._
June_July__

5,076
7,830
7,288
6,855
6,047
6, 176
5,940
5,964
5,836
5,877
6,012
5,883
5,881
5,871
5,937
5,929
5,774
5,848

43.4
55.4
49.8
45.3
41.6
41.4
41.6
39.7
42.2
40.7
40.2
41.6
41.8
41.3
42.2
39.9
41. 0
43.7

14. 9
10. 4
12.2
13.0
14. 1
13.9
14.2
14.3
14. 0
14.2
14.3
15. 7
14. 0
14.6
14.2
16. 1
15. 1
14.4

28.4
23.8
26.0
28. 1
30.0
30.5
29.5
32.4
29.6
30. 1
31.9
28. 7
29.6
30.2
30. 0
29. 8
30.2
29.9

13.3
10.4
12. 1
13.7
14.3
14.2
14.8
13.7
14.2
15.0
13.6
14.0
14.7
13.9
13.6
14.2
13.7
12. 0

50. 6
37.0
38. 3
41.7
46.2
48.2
47.2
47. 1
46.7
48.8
47.4
46.4
46.7
46.5
48.6
47.0
50. 5
48.0

1
Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
2
includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (TJCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes
Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal
supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).




31.0
31.3
29. 6
30.5
31.0
30.4
32.0
31.5
30.7
30. 6
32.6
32. 1
31.8
31.4
31.0
32.6
30.8
33.9

11. 1
16.5
13.8
13. 1
12.3
10.9
10.6
11.2
12. 6
11.8
12.0
12. 5
12. 1
12.3
11. 4
11. 9
10. 6
10. 3

7.3
15.2
18.3
14.8
10.5
10.5
10.3
10.2
10.0
8.8
7.9
9.0
9.3
9.7
9.0
8.6
8. 1
7.8

2,262
3,986
2,991
2,655
2,356
2,374
2,448
2,292
2,234
2,230
2,252
2,367
2,349
2,323
2,367
2,253
2,255
2,411

363
478
382
375
342
364
345
326
325
338
339
350
341
349
433
356
386
395

2,558
4,943
3, 822
3, 111
2,640
2,581
2,394
2,064
1,999
2,148
2,567
3, 198
3,209
2,921
2, 610
2,230
2, 119
2,426

1, 173
1,152
572

s FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting
began March 1975.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment
and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 44,000 in July.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

90

20
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

18

80

16
70

14
SERVICE PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

60

—

,*«*

22

—U

50

MANUFACTURING
\

20

18

40

_GOODS-PRODUCING_
INDUSTRIES

30

CONSTRUCTION

\
"•*«...«..,,,

20
1975

i In
1976

1977

1978

1979

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted]

Cloods-prc>ducing i ndustries
T^Avistrl
irerioci

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978: July-.
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec..
1979: Jan...
Feb___
Mar__
Apr___
May__
June*>_
July »_

Total
nonagricultural
employment
78, 265
76, 945
79, 382
82, 256
85, 763
86, 033
86, 149
86, 163
86, 573
87, 036
87, 281
87, 524
87, 818
88, 263
88, 248
88, 539
88, 709
88, 753

Total *

Construction

24, 794
22, 600
23, 352
24, 288
25, 381
25, 501
25, 463
25, 471
25, 670
25, 872
26, 030
26, 111
26, 199
26, 412
26, 351
26, 423
26, 451
26, 445

4,020
3,525
3,576
3,833
4,212
4,317
4,298
4,298
4,341
4,368
4,397
4,381
4,385
4,526
4,507
4,594
4, 622
4, 670

Serviee-pr oducing industrie s

Trans- Whole- Finance,
Gover nment
Ma nufactui ing
insurportasale
ance,
tion
and
State
Non- Total
and Services
and
retail
Federal and
durable
Total Durable
real
public
goods goods
trade
local
estate
utilities
20, 077
18, 323
18, 997
19, 647
20, 332
20, 302
20, 278
20, 286
20, 436
20, 601
20, 729
20, 825
20, 895
20, 964
20, 922
20, 906
20, 898
20, 836

11, 925
10, 688
11, 077
11, 573
12, 160
12, 138
12, 146
12, 166
12, 305
12,410
12, 491
12, 562
12, 647
12, 699
12, 665
12, 645
12, 653
12, 637

8,152
7,635
7,920
8,074
8, 172
8, 164
8,132
8,120
8,131
8, 191
8,238
8,263
8,248
8,265
8,257
8,261
8,245
8, 199

1
Includes all full-- and part-time
wage and salary workers
rer in nonagricultural
establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from
this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11 which include proprietors,
servants; which count
as employed




53, 471
54, 345
56, 030
57, 968
60, 382
60, 532
60, 686
60, 692
60, 903
61, 164
61, 251
61, 413
61, 619
61, 851
61, 897
62, 116
62, 258
62, 308

4,725
4,542
4,582
4,696
4,859
4,827
4,846
4,855
4,922
4,947
4,967
4,974
5,001
5,025
4,935
5, 031
5,075
5,085

16, 987
17, 060
17, 755
18, 492
19, 394
19, 469
19, 523
19, 546
19, 632
19, 701
19, 697
19, 817
19, 883
19, 945
19, 959
19, 985
19, 969
19, 950

4,148
4, 165
4,271
4,452
4,676
4,690
4,707
4,719
4,737
4,774
4,789
4,809
4,829
4,839
4,853
4,867
4,889
4, 904

13, 441
13, 892
14, 551
15, 249
15, 979
15, 989
16, 074
16, 127
16, 169
16, 270
16, 327
16, 352
16, 438
16, 535
16, 575
16, 622
16, 688
16, 722

2,724
2,748
2,733
2,727
2,753
2,765
2,765
2,752
2,760
2,757
2,734
2,755
2,755
2,754
2,756
2,770
2,793
2,792

11,446
11, 937
12, 138
12, 352
12, 723
12, 792
12, 771
12, 693
12, 683
12, 715
12, 737
12, 706
12, 713
12, 753
12, 819
12, 841
12, 844
12, 855

are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on
reports
from employing establishments.
s
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Averag e gross
hourly €earnings

Aver age weekly 1aours
Period

Manufa icturing

Total
private
nonagricultural l

Total

Overtime

Total
private
nonagricultural l

Manufacturing

Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —tc>tal private
nonagric ultural
Percent ch ange from
a year «jarlier 4

Index, HJ67=100

1967
dollars s

Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1967
dollars

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

37.1
36.9
37.0
36.9
36.5
36. 1
36. 1
36.0
35.8

39.8
39.9
40.5
40.7
40.0
39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4

3.0
2.9
3.5
3.8
3.3
2.6
3. 1
3.4
3.6

$3.23
3.45
3.70
3.94
4.24
4. 53
4.86
5.25
5.69

$3.35
3.57
3.82
4.09
4.42
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17

120.7
129.2
137.5
146.0
157. 5
170.7
183.0
196.8
212.6

103.8
106.5
109.7
109.7
106.6
105.9
107.3
108.4
108.9

6.6
7.0
6.4
6.2
7.9
8.4
7.2
7.5
8. 1

0.7
2.6
3.0
0
-2.8
-.7
1.3
1.0
.5

1978: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

35.9
35.8
35.8
35.9
35.8
35.9

40.5
40.3
40.4
40.5
40.7
40.7

3.6
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8

5.71
5.73
5.77
5.82
5.87
5.91

6. 18
6.20
6.25
6.32
6.38
6.43

214. 1
214.6
216. 2
218.0
219.0
220.7

109. 1
108.7
108.7
108.7
108. 5
108.6

8.2
8.2
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.5

.5
.4
.0
-.7
-.6
-.6

1979: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr __
May
June *_
July *___ _ _

35.7
35.7
35.9
35.4
35.7
35.7
35.7

40.7
40.7
40.8
39.2
40.2
40. 1
40.2

3.8
3.8
3.8
2.8
3.4
3.3
3.3

5.97
5.99
6.04
6. 04
6.09
6. 13
6. 17

6.45
6.52
6.56
6.56
6.63
6.67
6.72

222.8
223.9
225.3
227. 0
227. 4
228.6
230. 3

108.6
107.8
107.3
107.0
106. 1
105.6
105.3

8. 1
8.4
8.2
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6

-1.1
-1.5
-2.0
-2.4
-2.8
-3.0
-3.5

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross weekly «earnings
Total pri^/ate nonagricu)itural l

Period

Current
dollars

1970
1971
1972
1973___
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978: July
Aug
Sept.—
Oct
Nov
Dec _
1979: Jan
Feb
Mar . _
Apr _
May . _
June*
July v

_

__

$119. 83
127. 31
136. 90
145. 39
154. 76
163. 53
175. 45
189. 00
203. 70
204. 99
205. 13
206. 57
208. 94
210. 15
212. 17
213. 13
213. 84
216. 84
213. 82
217. 41
218. 84
220. 27

Manufacturing

1967
dollars *
$103. 04
104. 95
109. 26
109. 23
104. 78
101. 45
102. 90
104. 13
104. 30
104. 48
103. 97
103. 86
104. 16
104. 14
104. 41
103. 86
102. 96
103. 31
100. 76
101. 40
101. 03
100. 72

$133. 33
142. 44
154. 71
166. 46
176. 80
190. 79
209. 32
228. 90
249. 27
250. 29
249. 86
252. 50
255. 96
259. 67
261. 70
262. 52
265. 36
267. 65
257. 15
266. 53
267. 47
270. 14

$195. 45
211.67
221. 19
235. 89
249. 25
266. 08
283. 73
295. 65
319. 19
323. 02
323. 51
323. 75
323. 61
324. 58
329. 59
320. 23
329. 42
339. 53
326. 14
342. 24
344. 45
343. 73

Percent cha nge from a
year e arlier,
total privrate nonagricultural 8
Current
dollars

<Current dollars»

1
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
2
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
3
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.
Eevised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.




Construction

Wholesale
and retail
trade

$96. 02
101. 09
106. 45
111.76
119. 02
126. 45
133. 79
142. 52
153. 31
153. 64
154. 16
155. 14
156. 93
157. 77
159. 24
159. 73
160. 23
162. 52
164. 00
163. 00
163. 98
164. 96

4.6
6.2
7.5
6.2
6.4
5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8. 1
8.5
8.5
8. 1
8.6
9. 1
9.4
9.6
8.7
5.6
7.6
7.5
7.2

1967
dollars
-1.3
1.9
4.1
-.0
— 4. 1
-3.2
1.4
1.0
.4
.3
.6
.2
-. 6
2
.1
.0
Q

— 1.4
-4.6
-3.0
-3.2
-3.9

*8 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY
Outpmt

Hours oi 2all
perse>ns

1

Output p>er hour
of all p ersons

Compe nsation
per h our 3

Unit abor
cos ts

Implicit price
deflat o r 4

NonPriNonPriNonNonPriNonNonPrivate
Private
Private
farm
vate
farm
vate
farm
farm
vate
farm
farm
business business
business business
business business
business
business
Dusiness business Business Dusiness
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector sector
sector sector
sector
sector sector
sector

Period

1967 == 100; quairterly dat a, seasonsilly adjust ed
1966
1967
1968
1969

98. 1
100. 0
105. 1
108.3

98. 1
100. 0
105. 3
108.5

100.0
100.0
101.8
104.6

99.8
100. 0
102. 1
105.5

98.0
100. 0
103. 3
103. 5

98.4
100.0
103.2
102.9

94.9
100. 0
107. 6
114.9

94.8
100. 0
107.3
114. 1

96. 8
100. 0
104. 1
111. 0

96.4
100. 0
104. 0
110. 9

97. 2
100. 0
103. 9
108. 8

96.8
100. 0
104. 0
108. 7

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 _ _ „

107.3
110.3
117.5
124. 4
121. 4

107. 4
110.2
117. 8
124.9
121.8

103.0
102.4
105.5
109.6
110. 3

104. 2
103.8
107.0
111. 5
112.3

104. 2
107.7
111.4
113.6
110. 1

103.0
106. 2
110. 1
112.0
108.5

123. 1
131.4
139.7
151. 2
164. 9

121.7
129. 9
138.4
149. 2
162.8

118.2
122. 0
125.4
133. 1
149.8

118. 1
122.3
125. 7
133. 2
150. 0

113. 9
118. 9
123. 2
130. 3
143. 1

114.0
119.2
122.9
127.9
141. 4

1975
1976
1977
1978

118. 7
126.4
133.8
140.7

118.8
126.9
134. 3
141. 5

105. 6
108.6
112.6
117. 2

107.4
111.0
115.3
120.2

112.4
116.4
118. 8
120. 1

110. 5
114.4
116.5
117. 7

181.3
197.2
213.5
233. 1

178.9
193.8
209.8
229. 3

161.3
169.4
179.7
194.2

161. 8
169.4
180. 1
194.7

157.5
165.5
174.8
187.2

156.4
164.8
174.5
186. 1

1977:111
IV

135.2
136. 1

135.6
136.4

112.9
114.0

115.9
116.8

119.7
119.3

117.0
116.8

215. 9
219. 5

211.8
215.8

180.3
183.9

181.0
184.8

176. 0
178.6

176.2
178. 3

1978:1
II
III
IV

136. 9
140.3
141. 8
144. 0

137.3
141. 1
142. 7
145. 0

114.9
117. 1
117.5
119.2

117.6
120.2
120. 6
122.2

119.1
119.8
120.6
120.8

116.7
117.4
118.3
118.6

225.7
230.3
235. 6
240. 7

222.2
226.5
231.5
236. 7

189.5
192.2
195.3
199.2

190.3
192. 9
195.7
199.5

180.9
185.8
188.9
192.9

180.2
184.7
187.8
191.4

1979:1
II »

144. 4
143.3

145.5
144. 1

120.4
120. 1

123. 5
123. 7

120.0
119.3

117.7
116.5

247.3
252. 9

242.8
247.4

206. 1
212.0

206. 2
212.5

197.2
202.0

195. 1
200.3

- -

Perce nt change ; quarterlyy data at seasonal] y ad juste i annual rates
5. 5
2.0
5. 1
3.0

6.0
1. 9
5.3
3.0

2.3
-.0
1.8
2.8

3. 3
.2
2. 1
3.4

3.2
2.0
3.3
.2

2.5
1.6
3.2
-.3

7.0
5.3
7.6
6.8

6.1
5.5
7.3
6.3

3.8
3.3
4. 1
6. 6

3.5
3.8
4.0
6.7

3.2
2.9
3.9
4.7

2.9
3.3
4. 0
4.5

1970
1971
1972___
1973
1974

-. 9
2.8
6.6
5. 9
-2.4

-1. 1
2.6
6. 9
6.0
-2.5

-1.6
—.6
3.0
3.9
.7

-1.2
-.4
3. 1
4. 2
.7

.7
3.3
3.5
1.9
-3.0

.1
3.1
3.7
1.7
-3. 1

7. 1
6.7
6. 3
8.2
9.1

6.7
6.7
6. 5
7.8
9. 1

6.4
3.3
2.8
6.2
12.5

6. 5
3.5
2.8
6.0
12.7

4.7
4.4
3.6
5. 8
9.8

4.9
4. 5
3. 1
4. 1
10. 5

1975
1976
1977
1978

-2.3
6.5
5.8
5.2

-2.5
6.9
5.8
5.4

-4.3
2.9
3.7
4. 1

4.3
3.3
3.9
4.2

2.1
3.5
2. 1
1. 1

1.9
3.5
1.8
1. 1

9.9
8.8
8.3
9.2

9.9
8.3
8.2
9.3

7.7
5.0
6.0
8.1

7.9
4.7
6.3
8.1

10. 1
5.0
5.6
7. 1

10.6
5.4
5.9
6.6

1977:111
IV

7.6
2.5

6. 6
2.4

1.5
3.8

2.7
3.2

6. 1
-1.3

3.8
-.8

9.4
6.9

8.5
7.9

3.2
8. 4

4.5
8.7

4.7
6. 1

6.2
4.8

1978:1
II
III
IV

2.4
10. 5
4. 2
6.4

2.7
11.5
4.5
6.8

3. 2
7.9
1.5
5.6

2.9
8.9
1. 6
5.4

Q
. O

2.5
2.6
.8

-.2
2.4
2.9
1. 3

11.8
8.4
9.4
9.0

12.3
8.0
9. 1
9. 4

12.7
5.8
6.6
8.2

12. 5
5.5
6.0
8.0

5.3
11.2
6.9
8.7

4.4
10.2
7.0
7.8

1979: I
II »

1. 2
-3. 1

1.2
-3.8

4. 1
-.7

4.3
.5

-2. 8
-2.4

-3.0
-4.3

11.4
9.3

10.7
7.8

14. 6
12. 0

14. 1
12.7

9.3
10. 0

8. 1
11.0

1966
1967
1968
1969

-

1
2

Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including
hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment
data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social
insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,
and
supplemental payments for the self-employed.
4
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

16



NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original
data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes
shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production fell 0.1 percent in July, the same as the revised decrease in June. The July index was 3.4 percent
above the year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)

160

180

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

160

120

o
MINING

100

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE)
100

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
90

80

70
1975

1975

1979

1976

1977

1978

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Period

1967 proportion
1972.
_
___
1973
1974. __
_ _
1975.
1976
1977
1978___
1978: July
Aug__
Sept
Oct__
Nov
Dec. _
1979: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June *>_
July *>.__

Total in dustrial
produ ction
Percent
Index,
1967= change
from
100
year
earlier
100. 00
9.2
119.7
8.4
129.8
-. 4
129.3
117.8
-8.9
130.5
10.8
138. 2
5.9
5. 7
146. 1
147. 1
5.8
6.2
148. 0
6.4
148.6
149. 7
6.9
7.3
150.6
151.8
8.0
151.5
8.2
152. 0
8. 3
153.0
7.7
150.8
4.4
5.2
152.4
152.3
4. 2
152.1
3.4

[Seasonally adjusted]
Indu stry prodiiction inde3xes, 1967 = 100
M<Miufacturi ng
Total

Durable

Nondurable

Mining

Utilities

87.95
118,9
129.8
129.4
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
147. 7
148.6
149. 6
150.7
151.6
152. 9
152.5
153.3
154.5
151.6
153.8
153.6
153.2

51. 98
113. 7
127. 1
125. 7
109. 3
122.3
130. 0
139.7
141. 1
141.8
142. 9
144.6
145.5
146. 8
146. 8
147. 2
148.6
144. 6
147.7
147. 6
146.7

85. 97

6. S6
113. 1
114. 7
115. 3
112.8
114.2
118. 2
124.0
127. 1
126.2
124.4
127.9
128.0
127.4
123. 8
120.9
122. 3
122. 7
122.7
123.5
124. 1

5. 69
139.4
145.4
143.7
146. 0
151. 7
156.5
161.4
162.0
162. 2
163.0
163.2
163.7
164.7
166. 2
167.7
167. 1
167. 4
165.7
165.8
166. 1

126.5
133.8
134.6
126.4
141.8
150. 5
156.9
157.2
158.4
159.3
159.5
160.4
161.7
160.7
162.0
163. 0
161.7
162. 8
162. 3
162. 6

* Output as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
i entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of

s

Note.—Industrial production revised beginning 1976; Federal Reserve capacity




Manufa cturing c£tpacity ut ilization
rate, p<3rcent *
Federal Reserve
ser les
ComWharTotal
ton
merce2
Mate- series
manuseries 3
facturrials
ing

83.5
87. 6
83.8
72.9
79.5
81.9
84.4
84.8
85.2
85.5
86. 0
86.3
86.8
86. 4
86.7
87. 1
85. 3
86. 3
86.0
85.6

87.0
91.8
87. 1
73.4
81. 1
82. 7
85.6
86. 1
86.4
86.8
87.6
88.1
88. 8
87.9
87.8
88.3
86. 9
87.3
87.3
87.2

83
86
83
77
81
83
84

87.8
93. 1
90.5
80.0
86. 1
88.5
91.8

83

93.0

84

94.0

84

94. 1

utilization revised beginning 1970 for manufacturing and beginning 1967 for
materials.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of
Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Proclucts
Final 13roducts

Total
Total
1 967 proportion
1970
1971
1972
1973. . .
_
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978: July
Aug
Sept__
Oct.
Nov

Dec
1979: Jan.
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June »
July »_

Equip>ment

Coiisumer goods

Period

_
_ _ _
_ _

47.82
105.3
106.3
115.7
124.4
125. 1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
143.2
144.2
144.5
145. 1
145.3
146. 1
146. 1
146. 8
148.2
145.4
148. 0
147.3
146.6

27.68
109.0
114.7
124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
137. 1
145.3
149. 1
149. 8
150. 6
150.8
151.2
151. 3
151. 5
150.6
151.5
152. 9
149. 1
152.3
151. 0
149. 5

Internlediate
prod ucts

NonDurable durable
goods
goods
19. 79
7.89
110. 1
106. 1
113. 1
118.8
120. 6
133.8
146.2
125.6
135.3
126. 3
125. 1
121.4
135.2
141. 9
141. 9
154. 0
145. 1
159. 2
144. 9
162. 1
146.3
161.5
147.0
160.5
162.6
146. 6
146.7
162. 9
147.3
161.8
146.7
160.4
147.7
161. 1
148. 6
163. 6
148. 0
151.6
149.0
160.6
148. 2
158.0
147. 8
153.9

Total

Business

Total

20. 14
100. 1
94.7
103.8
114.5
120.0
110.2
114. 6
123. 0
132.8
134.0
135.3
135.9
136. 6
137. 1
138.6
139.9
140. 4
141.7
140.4
142.0
142.3
142.6

12. 68
107.0
104. 1
118.0
134.2
142.4
128.2
135.4
147. 8
160.3
161.7
163.4
163.8
164. 8
165.0
166.8
168. 1
169.0
170.8
168.7
171.4
171. &
172.5

12.89
112.9
116.7
126.5
137.2
135. 3
123. 1
137. 2
145. 1
154. 1
154.7
155.6
155.6
156.4
157.8
159.9
160.8
161.4
160.4
159.7
159.6
159. 2
159.3

Construction
supplies
6.42
111. 0
116.8
128.4
139. 8
134.5
116. 3
132.6
140.6
151.7
152. 4
153. 8
153.5
154.5
156. 1
158.3
159. 1
159.3
157. 1
156. 0
156.3
155.5
155. 4

Materials

39. 29

109.2
111. 3
122. 3
133. 9
132.4
115. 5
131. 7
138.6
148. 3
149. 3
150.2
151.2
153. 2
154.5
156. 2
155.0
155. 2
156.3
154.5
155.4
156.2
156.3

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total
12. 2S
117.0
119.5
125.2
128.3
125.5
125.5
129. 1
132. 9
135.4
136.7
137. 1
136.0
138.2
139. 1
139. 1
138. 1
137.5
138.4
138.7
137. 6
137.9
137.9

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Noneiurable Enanufact ures

Durable m anufactu res

Primaryr metals
Period
Total

6.57
1967 proportion
1970___
106. 6
1971
_
__ 100. 2
112. 1
1972
126.7
1973
123. 1
1974
96. 4
1975
___
109.7
1976
111. 1
1977_
1978
. 119.9
122. 5
1978: July
124. 9
Aug__
127.4
Sept
Oct
129.4
Nov
_
130. 8
132. 1
Dec__
123.4
1979: Jan
Feb
120.4
Mar
123. 7
Apr
121.7
May_ _
121.0
June v__
123.9
124. 0
July * _ ..
Note.—Data revised beginning 1976.

18



Iron
and
steel

4.21
104.7
96. 1
107. 1
122.3
119. 8
95.8
104.8
103. 8
113.2
116. 5
118.3
121. 3
123. 8
124.4
125.3
113.3
110.8
116. 2
115.8
114.3
118.3

Non-

Fabricated
metal
products

trical
machinery

Electrical
machinery

5.98
102.4
103. 5
112. 1
124.7
124.2
109. 9
123.9
131. 0
141.6
142. 8
143.7
144. 2
144.9
145.6
147. 1
149. 1
150.8
150.2
148.8
150.3
149.5
150. 0

9. 15
104.4
100. 2
116.0
133.7
140. 1
125. 1
134.5
143. 6
153.6
154. 7
155.5
156.4
157. 5
157.8
158. 1
161.2
162.9
164. 0
161.8
164.4
164.9
166. 0

8.05
108. 1
107.7
122.2
143. 1
143. 8
116.5
134. 8
145. 4
159.4
162.5
161.5
163.3
164. 2
165.2
167.7
170.9
173. 2
174.2
170.6
174. 7
175. 1
172. 1

Transp ortation
equip>ment
Total

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

9. 27
89.5
97.9
108.2
118.3
108.7
97.4
111. 1
122. 2
132.5
133.4
134.2
134. 9
139.7
142. 1
142. 9
141.2
139.9
143. 7
131.6
141. 9
139. 3
135.8

4.60
92.3
118. 6
135.8
148.8
128.2
111. 1
142. 0
161. 1
169. 9
171.5
171.6
171. 0
178.9
181.9
182. 1
177.9
173. 1
179.7
156.0
176.3
169. 6
159.9

Lumber
and
products

parel
products

1. 64
105.6
113. 8
120.8
126.0
116.2
107.6
123. 2
131.2
136.3
136.2
136.0
136. 2
138. 1
140. 1
144. 0
137.3
137.2
137.7
137.2
136. 1
137.3

3. 81
101.4
104.7
109. 4
117.3
114. 3
107.6
125. 7
134. 2
134.2
132.7
137.7
139.6
136. 8
135.8
136.5
130.3
133. 5
136. 5
130.8
128. 2

Apr ,

Print- Cheming
icals
and
and
pubprodlishing ucts
4. 72
107.0
107. 1
112.7
118. 2
118.2
113.3
122. 5
127.6
131.5
131.4
131.9
132. 6
132. 6
133.7
134.4
135.6
138.2
137.3
135.7
136. 8
135.8
136.9

7. 74
120.4
125. 9
143.6
154.5
159.4
147.2
170.9
185. 7
197.4
198. 6
199.3
201. 3
202.7
204.6
207. 2
206. 5
208.6
207.4
207.7
209. 7
208.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

Foods

8. 75
108. 9
112.8
116.8
120. 9
124.0
123.4
133.0
138. 8
142. 7
143. 1
143. 9
143. 7
143.2
143.7
144.7
143. 9
145.5
147.6
147. 0
149. 3
148. 8

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Constructio n contracts3

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Resic .ential
Total

Commercial and
industrial

New
housing
units

Total l

Other

Federal,
State,
and
local

CommerTotal value cial and
index
industrial
(1972= floor space
100)
(millions of
square feet)

Bil lions of doll ars

1972____
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978_

_

124. 1
137.9
138.5
134.5
151, 1
174.0
206. 2

93. 9
105.4
100.2
93. 7
111. 9
135. 8
160.4

54.3
59.7
50. 4
46.5
60. 5
81. 0
93.4

44.9
50. 1
40.6
34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8

18. 1
21. 7
23.8
20.8
19. 9
22. 5
29.6

21.5
24.0
25.9
26. 4
31.5
32.4
37.4

30. 2
32. 5
38. 3
40.9
39. 1
38.2
45.8

Seasonally
adjusted

Seasonalh/ adjusted a?inual rates
1978: May__
June__
July__
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov_ _
Dec
1979: Jan
Feb
Mar__
Apr vv
May _
June v
A

'•

_

204.4
206.2
212.8
213. 7
215.3
217.8
220. 0
223. 2
212.2
210.8
216.8
216. 8
223.2
221. 5

158.6
161. 5
164. 6
165. 1
166.5
168. 5
170.7
173.8
165.8
169.3
172. 8
172.0
174.8
177.0

93.7
94.9
95.6
95.8
96.0
95.9
97.5
99.7
93.7
97.7
96.6
96.0
95.5
97.0

75.3
76.7
77. 6
77.7
77.7
77.6
78.9
80.7
73.6
77.2
75. 9
76.0
75.6
76.8

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and
beginning 1971 for floor space.

28. 0
30. 1
30. 8
31. 2
31. 8
32. 9
33.3
33.9
32. 5
32.4
36.2
35. 5
38. 1
39.2

100.0
109. 2
103.0
101.9
121. 0
153.6
173. 1

36.9
36. 5
38.2
38. 1
38.7
39. 7
.39.9
40. 1
39. 6
39.2
40.0
40. 5
41.2
40. 8

202
153
173
177
182
193
173
184
181
231
186
202
178
181

45.9
44. 7
48.2
48.6
48.8
49.3
49.3
49. 4
46. 4
41. 6
44.0
44. 8
48. 4
44. 4

854
1,010
840
555
592
739
964
Seasonally
adjusted
annual
rates
1, 061
999
898
951
1,037
1,015
1,093
978
1,062
1,266
1,233
1, 123
1,045
1, 009

NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable
with later data.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New priv ate homes

IS ew private housing uniibs

Units started, by type of striicture

Period

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977____
1978__

_

Total

1 unit

2, 052. 2
2, 356. 6
2, 045. 3
1, 337. 7
1, 160. 4
1, 537. 5
1, 987. 1
2, 020. 3

1, 151. 0
1, 309. 2
1, 132. 0
888. 1
892. 2
1, 162. 4
1, 450. 9
1, 433. 3

2-4
units

120. 3
141. 3
118.3
68. 1
64.0
85. 9
121. 7
125.0

5 or more
units
780.9
906. 2
795. 0
381.6
204.3
289. 2
414. 4
462.0

Homes for
sale at
end of 1
period

Units
authorized

Units
completed

1, 924. 6
2, 218. 9
1, 819. 5
1, 074. 4
939.2
1, 296. 2
1, 690. 0
1, 800. 5

1, 706. 1
2, 003. 9
2, 100. 5
1, 728. 5
1, 317. 2
1, 377. 2
1, 657. 1
1, 867. 5

656
718
634
519
549
646
819
816

287
409
418
346
313
353
401
413

1, 928
1, 948
1,900
1,883
1,885
1,888
1, 815
1,894
1, 957
2, 015
2,029
1,871

829
778
796
900
803
802
774
697
784
724
718
679

417
418
417
407
412
413
412
410
3
424
425
431
420

Homes
sold

Vacancy
rate for
rental
housing
units
(percent)2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0

Seasonally adjusted armual rates
1978: July _
Aug
• Sept_
Oct
Nov__
Dec __
1979: Jan
Feb
Mar _ _ _ _
Apr _ _
May vv
June
July v __

2, 104
2,004
2,024
2,054
2, 107
2,074
1,679
1,381
1,786
1, 745
1,835
1,935
1,799

1, 455
1,431
1,432
1, 436
1,502
1,539
1, 139
953

1,266
1,278
1,226
1,298
1, 223

1 Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.
New series beginning March 1979.

2
3




134
137
112
135
150
119
124
76
116
115
119
121
119

515
436
480
483
455
416
416
352
404
352
490
516
457

1,765
1,716
1,838
1,835
1,789
1,827
1,442
1,425
1, 621
1,517
1,618
1, 639
1, 521

5.0
5.0
4.8
5.0

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing
places; data for 1972-77 are for 14,000 places and for 1971, for 13,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
1Q

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE
Business sales fell 1 percent in June while inventories rose $5.2 billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales
rose about % percent in July, following a decline of about % percent in June and a rise of about 1 percent in May.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1201

450 100
400

RETAIL INVENTORIES

90

TOTAL BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

350 -

80

70
RETAIL SALES
250 -

60
TOTAL BUSINESS
SALES

50

200

40
1975

1977

1976

1978

1979

RATJO*

150 -

1.80

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

1.70
1.60

•s^

1.50

100

1.40
1.30
1.20
1975

1976

1977

1979

1978

1975

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Total b usiness l

Retail

Who]esale
2

In ventoriej3

Sales
Period

Q I
z4
bales

InvenO _ l 2n
bales
tories8

Inventories3

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

T/vfral

TVvf «*1

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

[nventoi y-4sales
rat]o
Total
business J

Retail

Mill]ons of d ollars, se asonally adjusted

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

__

130, 049
_ 151, 720
175, 350
179, 982
201, 814
224, 686
254, 125

203,
234,
285,
285,
301,
338,
379,

161
163
519
035
736
099
630

29, 584
36, 822
45, 836
44, 633
48, 408
53, 509
62, 842

39, 786
46, 254
56, 537
55, 113
61, 307
67, 998
80, 771

37, 422
41, 944
44, 692
48, 731
54, 597
60, 335
66, 568

12, 369
14, 132
13, 921
15, 106
18, 073
20, 653
23, 160

25, 054 55, 079 24, 238
27, 812 63, 237 28, 418
30, 771 71, 067 32, 861
33, 626 71, 744 33, 356
36, 524 79, 273 37, 841
39, 682 90, 120 43, 414
43, 409 100, 818 48, 161

30, 841
34, 819
38, 206
38, 388
41, 432
46, 706
52, 657

1.50
1. 44
1.47
1.58
1.48
1. 45
1.41

1.40
1.41
1. 49
1.45
1.39
1. 40
1.44

1978: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

252,
259,
260,
266,
269,
272,

728
226
099
724
792
537

363,
366,
369,
372.
376,
379,

048
574
227
404
812
630

63, 425
64, 894
64, 531
67, 338
67, 552
67, 823

75, 744
76, 338
77, 113
78, 625
79, 526
80, 771

66, 224
67, 303
68, 085
68, 971
70, 158
70, 918

23, 049
23, 617
23, 872
24, 422
24, 954
25, 163

43, 175 96, 521 45, 704
43, 686 97, 824 46, 116
44, 213 98, 350 46, 444
44, 549 99, 279 47, 006
45, 204 100, 483 47, 555
45, 755 100, 818 48, 161

50, 817
51, 708
51, 906
52, 273
52, 928
52, 657

1. 44
1.41
1.42
1. 40
1.40
1.39

1.46
1. 45
1. 44
1.44
1.43
1.42

1979: Jan.. _ _
Feb
Mar
Apr
May.
June v
July *>__

273,
274,
285,
275,
287,
283,

304
579
372
936
139
708

384, 190
387, 822
391, 893
397, 530
401, 504
406, 669

67, 148
67, 495
70, 824
70, 444
72, 937
73, 337

81, 543
83, 005
84, 078
84, 973
85, 257
85, 932

70, 855
71, 122
72, 045
71, 366
71, 914
71, 479
71, 735

25, 250
25, 035
25, 450
24, 614
24, 731
24, 189
24, 365

45, 605
46, 087
46, 595
46, 752
47, 183
47, 2&0
47, 370

739 49, 302
175 49, 367
226 49, 583
379 50, 526
162 51, 805
398 52, 512

52, 437
51, 808
52, 643
52, 853
53, 357
53, 886

1.41
1.41
1.37
1.44
1. 40
1. 43

1.44
1.42
1.42
1.45
1,46
1. 49

1
The term "business" also includes manufacturing
2
Monthly average for year and total for month.
3
Book
value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
4

(see page 21).

For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for monthi

20



101,
101,
102,
103,
105,
106,

Note.—Total business (and manufacturing) revised beginning 1967.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the CensusjK

INVENTORIES, AND

ORDERS

Manufacturers* inventories rose again in June, while orders and shipments fell. In July, according to advance data,
durable goods new orders fell and shipments were unchanged.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
180
160

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
280
240

- INVENTORIES

140
200
160

120
100

DURABLE G<

80
40

60
NONDURABLE GOODS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
180
160

1979
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufacjturers' sh ipments1 Manufadturers* in\rentories2

Manuifacturer sj new ore ers1

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

63, 042
72, 954
84, 821
86, 617
98, 810
110, 842
124, 714

34, 043
39, 703
44, 253
43, 678
50, 697
58, 010
66, 505

28, 999
33, 251
40, 568
42, 939
48, 113
52, 832
58, 210

Durab le goods
Capital
Nongoods
Durable
Total
Total
indusgoods durable
Total
goods
tries,
nondefense
Millions of dolL'irs, seasortally ad jussted
8,803
108, 296 70, 308 37, 987 64, 162 35, 059
124, 672 81, 426 43, 245 76, 183 42, 853 11, 089
157, 915 101, 866 56, 048 87, 157 46, 740 12, 737
158, 178 101, 766 56, 412 85, 082 41, 957 10, 772
170, 156 109, 095 61, 061 99, 184 51, 047 12, 501
179, 981 115, 552 64, 430 112,451 59, 562 15, 084
198, 041 129, 226 68, 816 128, 488 70, 145 18, 308

1978: July__
Aug___
Sept
Oct___
Nov__
Dec___

123, 079
127, 029
127, 483
130, 415
132, 082
133, 796

65, 106
67, 972
68, 476
70, 096
71, 392
72, 637

57, 972
59, 057
59, 007
60, 319
60, 689
61, 159

190, 783
192, 412
193, 764
194, 500
196, 803
198, 041

123, 624
124, 952
126, 108
126, 715
128, 422
129, 226

67, 158
67, 460
67, 657
67, 785
68, 381
68, 816

124, 076
129, 870
131, 608
136, 714
137, 794
138, 069

65, 935
70, 593
72, 399
76, 463
76, 912
76, 831

1979: Jan __ 135, 301
Feb___ 135, 962
Mar _ _ 142, 503
Apr___ 134, 126
May__ 142, 288
June. _ 138, 892
July ^ _

72, 897
73, 646
76, 855
70, 996
75, 698
72, 629
72, 595

62, 404
62, 316
65, 648
63, 130
66, 590
66, 263

200, 908
203, 642
205, 589
209, 178
211, 085
214, 339

131, 699
133, 994
135, 278
137, 903
139, 502
141, 700

69, 209
69, 648
70, 311
71, 275
71, 583
72, 639

141, 748
144, 036
148, 586
139, 332
143, 594
142, 269

79, 647
81, 312
83, 088
76, 099
77, 027
75, 888
71, 918

Period

Total

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
28 Book value, end of period.
End of period.
< For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments
for month.




ManufacNonturers'
durable unfilled
goods orders3

Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio *

29, 104
33, 330
40, 417
43, 125
48, 137
52, 889
58, 343

120, 395
159, 468
187, 574
169, 126
173, 646
193, 150
238, 652

1. 67
1. 58
1.65
1.83
1.66
1. 59
1.52

17, 450
18, 358
19, 835
21, 032
20, 754
19, 132

58, 141
59, 277
59, 208
60, 250
60, 882
61, 238

215, 403
218, 244
222, 368
228, 667
234, 381
238, 652

1.55
1.51
1. 52
1. 49
1. 49
1.48

21, 410
22, 868
23, 978
20, 767
20, 965
21, 821
19, 626

62, 101
62, 724
65, 498
63, 233
66, 567
66, 381

245, 113
253, 187
259, 267
264, 479
265, 782
261? 155

1.48
1.50
1.44
1. 56
1.48
1. 54

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1967.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRODUCER PRICES

PRICES

In July, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 1.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished con"
sumer foods were unchanged and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 1.9 percent. Prices of capital equipment
increased 0.8 percent.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

140

140

120

120

100

100

1971

1979

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; monthlyF data s easonally adjusted]
]?inishec goods
In1.ermediiite
Crud<3 mater ials
nlaterial 3
Total
conFoodsumer
Cons umer goods
Capi- finstuffs
Foods
ished Total and l Other Total and Other
tal
NonThir
feeddur- equip- goods
feeds
Total
stuffs
able ment
111.4 110.8 111.7 116.6 112.9 114. 1 111.7 114.3 115. 1 114.2 117.0
113.4 113.2 113.6 119.5 116. 6 118.7 118. 5 118.9 127.6 127.5 128.0
118. 5 115.8 120.5 123.5 129.2 131.6 168.4 128. 1 174.0 180. 0 162.5
138.6 126.3 146.8 141.0 149.3 162.9 200.2 159.5 196. 1 189.4 208.9
153. 1 138.2 163.0 162.5 163.6 180.0 195.3 178. 6 196.9 191.8 206.9
161.8 144.4 173.3 173.2 169. 0 189.3 186.6 189.5 205. 1 190. 1 233.6
172. 1 152.2 185.4 184.5 178.9 201.7 191.0 202.4 214. 3 190.9 258.4
183.7 165.9 195. 4 199.0 192.6 215.5 201.0 216.4 240.2 215.4 287. 0
184.9 168.5 195. 5 200. 1 193.7 215.4 202.9 216.2 241.5 215.7 289.9
185.9 169.8 196.3 201.0 194.0 216.8 201. 7 217. 7 241.5 215.6 290.3
186. 9 171.0 197.2 202. 1 195.8 218. 2 204. 9 219. 1 245.7 219.5 295. 0
187.6 169.7 199.3 203.4 197.4 220.8 210. 7 221.5 252.7 227. 6 299.9
188.7 169.9 201. 1 205. 1 198.6 222.6 208.7 223.5 255. 6 229.6 304. 9
190.9 172.3 203. 1 206.4 201.0 224. 2 214. 6 225.0 257.5 230.3 308.6
193. 1 174.2 205.6 208.5 203.8 226. 7 212. 6 227.6 263.4 236.8 313.5
194.8 175.7 207.4 210.3 206.3 229. 2 219. 0 229.9 272.2 245.7 322. 0
197.0 176.6 210.4 211.5 208.6 231.7 218.8 232.5 275.0 246.4 329.0
199.5 177.9 213.7 213.7 210. 0 234.7 217. 7 235.7 273.9 245. 5 327.4
202. 0 179. 2 217. 1 215. 1 210. 7 237. 0 219.2 238. 1 276.0 244.8 334. 9
204. 8 180. 0 221.4 216.2 211.7 239. 1 217.9 240. 4 277. 9 241. 9 345.8
208.6 181.8 226. 4 217.9 214. 2 243.6 232. 5 244. 3 282.8 246. 9 350.8

F inished goods excludin g
consumer f c ods

Period

1971
1972
___ _
1973
_ _
1974
1975
1976
___
1977
__
1978
_ _ _
1978: July
Aug.
Sept___ _ _
Oct..
Nov
Dec
1979:Jan__
Feb
Mar_
Apr _, _ _
May
June_ _ _ _
July
1

Total
finConished sumer
goods foods Total

113.7
117.2
127.9
147.5
163.4
170.3
180. 6
194.6
195.6
196. 1
197.7
199.2
200.6
202.7
205.3
207.6
209.6
211.2
212.0
213. 1
215. 4

115.3
121.7
146.4
166.9
181.0
180.2
189. 1
206.8
207.4
206.6
209.7
213. 1
214.7
217.3
221. 3
225. 3
227.9
226. 9
224. 0
221. 3
221. 3

113. 1
115.4
120. 1
139.3
156.2
165. 5
176.2
188.9
190.0
190. 9
192.0
192.9
194.2
196. 1
198.3
200.0
201.8
204.2
206.2
208.4
211. 4

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and animal feeds.

22



NOTE.—Data revised for March 1979.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES
In July, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.1 percent (1.0 percent seasonally adjusted). Food
prices increased 0.6 percent (0.1 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 1.2 percent (also
1.2 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 1.1 percent (also 1.1 percent s<?asonaHy adjusted).
JNDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
240

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
240

220

120

120

100

100
1978

1979

|

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967 = 100]

All
items

Food

Commodities
less
food

121. 3
_ 125.3
133. 1
147. 7
161.2
170.5
181. 5
195.4

118. 4
123. 5
141. 4
161. 7
175. 4
180. 8
192.2
211.4

116.8
119.4
123.5
136. 6
149. 1
156. 6
165. 1
174.7

Period

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

Comnlodities le ss food

Food

Services

All
commodities

All

Food
at
home

Food
away
from
home

All

128.4
133.3
139. 1
152. 1
166.6
180. 4
194.3
210. 9

117.4
120. 9
129.9
145.5
158.4
165.2
174. 7
187. 1

118.4
123. 5
141. 4
161. 7
175.4
180.8
192. 2
211.4

116. 4
121. 6
141. 4
162. 4
175.8
179.5
190.2
210. 2

126. 1
131. 1
141. 4
159.4
174.3
186. 1
200. 3
218. 4

116.8
119.4
123.5
136.6
149. 1
156. 6
165. 1
174. 7

Services

Durable

Nondurable

116. 5
118.9
121. 9
130.6
145. 5
154.3
163.2
173.9

117.0
119. 8
124.8
140.9
151.7
158. 3
166. 5
174.3

128.4
133.3
139. 1
152. 1
166. 6
180.4
194.3
210. 9

Seasonal y adjust ed

UnacI justed
1978: July _ _ _
Aug
Sept___
Oct
Nov
Dec

196.7
197.8
199.3
200.9
202. 0
202.9

215.0
215. 4
215.6
216. 8
217.8
219.4

175. 4
176.3
177. 8
179. 1
180. 3
181.3

211.7
213.4
215. 6
217.6
218. 6
219.2

187.7
188.7
190.2
191. 7
193. 0
194.6

213.7
214.6
216.0
217. 9
219. 2
221. 3

212. 7
213. 2
214. 5
216. 5
217.8
220. 1

219.5
221. 4
223. 1
224.7
226. 0
227. 8

174.7
175. 7
177. 2
178.5
179.8
181. 3

174.2
175. 3
176.8
178.3
180. 1
181. 6

174. 5
175. 4
176.5
177. 4
178. 3
179.4

212.2
213. 8
215. 7
217.6
218.7
219.5

1979: Jan
Feb____
Mar
Apr
May___
June
July___

204. 7
207. 1
209. 1
211. 5
214. 1
216. 6
218. 9 !

223. 9
228. 2
230. 4
232. 3
234.3
235.4
236.9

181. 9
183.7
185.9
188. 9
191.6
194. 7
197. 0

221. 1
223. 3
225. 1
227, 0
229,5
232. 1
234. 7

196. 7
199. 1
201. 3
203. 8
205. 7
207.7
209.5

224. 5
228. 1
230. 5
232. 7
234. 3
234.7
235. 0

223. 7
227. 7
230. 0
232. 4
233.5
233. 2
233. 0

230.7
233.6
236. 2
238.2
240.9
242. 9
244. 4

182. 9
184. 8
186. 9
189. 4
191. 4
193. 9
196. 3

183. 3
185. 1
186.0
187.6
188. 6
190. 1
191. 5

181,4
182.9
186.4
190.0
193.4
197. 4
201. 5

220. 7
223. 1
225. 1
227.2
230. 1
232.5
235. 0

NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier
related to urban
earners and clerical workers.




Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS

Period

Percen b change from 3 rnonths
earlie r; seasor ally adjiisted
annua rates

Percenib change from 6 rnonths
earlie r; seasontally adjiisted
annua I rates

Consumt3r goods

Consum sr goods

Consum er goods

Total
finished
goods

1970___
1971
1972
1973__
1974
1975___
1976
1977
1978
1978: July
Aug__
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Perceni -> change from prcseeding
perioc i; season ally adju sted !

-

9. 1

-2.5
5.9
8.0
22.5
13.0
5.5
-2.5
6.6
11.9

3.9
2.0
2.0
7.4
20.5
6.7
4.9
6.1
8.3

4.9
2.4
2.0
5.3
22.6
8.2
6.4
7.2
8.0

.7
.3
.8
.8
.7
1.0

.1
-.4
1.5
1.6
.8
1.2

1.0
.5
.5
.4
.6
1.2

.7
.4
.5
.6
.8
.6

1.3

1.8
1.8
1.2

1.2
.9
1. 1
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.9

1.0
.9
.6
1.0
.7
.5
.8

2.2
3.2
3.8

11.8
18.3

6.6
3.3
6.6

- -

1979: Jan__
Feb
Mar
Apr __
May
June_
July

Capita] Total
finequipished
Exclud- ment
goods
ing
Foods
foods

1. 1

1.0
.8
.4
.5

1. 1

^
-1.3
-1.2
0

Capital Total
equipfinExclud- ment
ished
Foods
ing
goods
foods

Capital
equipExclud- ment
Foods
ing
foods

7.3
4.4
4.9
11.5
16.6
15.3

9.4
8.4
8.8
6.0
6.2
8.8

9.3
7.9
7.0
6.8
8.4
8.8

9.5
8.3
8.8
8.2
8.3
8.9

12. 0
6.9
8.1
9.3
10.3
10.0

9.0
9.4
9.6
7.7
7.3
8.8

8.3
8.0
8. 1
8.0
8.2
7.9

16.3
12.8
14.7
21.3
21.0
14.3
12.0
10. 5
8.8 -2.3
6.8 -11.1
8.2 -9.5

12.3
13.6
13.4
13.9
15.6
16.8
19.5

10.4
10.5
10.3
10.4
9.4
9.2
8. 1

10.2
12. 1
12.4
12.4
11.7
10.5
10. 1

13.9
18.9
18.1
13.4
8.9
3.7
0

9.1
9.8
11.1
13. 1
14.6
15. 1
16.7

8.6
9.5
9.5
10.4
10.0
9.7
9.2

8.8
7.0
7.4
7.6
9.5
10.5

1

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
NOTE.—Based on revised data for March 1979.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
PerceEit change5 from preceding
perio d ; seasorlally adju sted 1
Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975__._____
1976
1977
1978

All
items
5.5
3.4
3.4
8.8

12.2

7.0
4.8
6.8
9.0

Food
2.2
4.3
4.7

20.1
12.2
6.5
.6
8.0

11.8

.1

1978: July___
Aug._Sept._
Oct___
Nov.. _
Dee___

.6
.6
.9
.8
.6
.6

.4
.7
.9
.6
1.0

1979: Jan.. .
Feb___
Mar___
Apr
May__
June__
July___

.9
1.2
1.0

1.4
1.6

1. 1
1. 1
1.0
1.0

1

1. 1

1.0
.7

.2
.1

Commodities
less
food
4.8
2.3
2.5
5.0

13.2
6.2

Services

.8
.8
.9
.9
.5
.4
.5

1. 1

.9
.9
1.3
1.0

1. 1

9.5
8.5
8.5
9.5
9.4
8.5

11.2

8.8

12.7
17. 3
17.7
15.4
11.3

11.3
13.0
13.9
13.6
13.4
12.8

Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Eariie?
data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.

24



All
items

Food

Commodities
less
food

Services

11.3

.6
.6
.9
.7
.7
.8

1. 2

Services

3.6
6.2

4.9
7.7

1.3

Food

Commodities
less
food

4. 1

8.1
7.3
7.9
9.3

1. 1

All
items

8.2

5. 1

.9
1.0
1.1
1.3

Percent c lange f reun 3 mont bis earlier ; Percent c lange fro m 6 mont is earlier ;
seasonsilly adjus?ted annujsd rates
seasonsilly adjussted annu«aJ rates

8.0
4.8

8. 1
8.9

10.2

7.5
4.0

7.4
7.4
8.3
9.0
9.7
9.6

10.6
10. 1
10.3
10.6

10.2
11.6
12.9
15.0
15. 1
15.8
15.4

5.8
8.3

9.5
7.2

10.6
12. 3
13.2
13.8
14.5

9.5
9.4
9.6
9.5
9.0
8.5

14.2
12.6
11.3

9.2

10.4
13.0
13.9
14.0
14.3
12. 5

10. 4
10.7
11.4
12.4
13.2
13.4

9.6
8.4
7.4

9.6

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

6.4
7.2
7.8
8.2
8.5
8.9

10.5
10.4
10.6
10.6

9.6

8.2
8.9
8.9
9.0

10.6
11.2
12. 6
13.3
14.4
15. 2

9.8
8.7

10.7
12.2
13.4

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers rose % percent in July and prices paid by farmers rose % percent in the month ended
July 15.
INDEX, 1967=100

(RATIO SCALE)

280

280

260

260

240

240

220

220

PRICES RECEIVED
(ALL FARM PRODUCTS)

200

200
180

180

, PRICES PAID
(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

RATIO

- 70
60
1979

1971
J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Prices received by farmers
Period

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978___
1978: July _
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov___
Dec
1979: Jan
Feb..
Mar__ _
Apr. _ _
May_ _
June_ .
July_ _

All farm
products

_ _ _ _ _ _

__
_

_

Crops

Prices paid by fanners
All
items,
Livestock interest,
Family
Producand
tion
living
taxes,
and
products wage rates
items
items
Index, l\567=100

113
125
179
192
185
186
183
210
216
211
217
218
216
222

108
114
175
224
201
197
192
204
213
204
205
202
202
205

118
136
183
165
172
177
175
217
218
218
227
232
230
239

118
125
144
164
180
192
202
219
220
221
223
224
225
226

232
241
246
244
246
244
246

209
216
214
212
220
233
243

252
264
274
272
269
255
250

234
238
243
246
248
249
251

1
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid,
interest,
taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.
2
The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to
farmers.




(3)
0
(3)
)
i)
)
)

?
?

(3)

(3)
(S)
)
i)
(3)
(3)

?

118
123
133
151
166
176

Parity ratio *
Actual

Adjusted 3

113
121
146
166
182
193
200
216
218
217
220
222
222
225

71
74
91
86
76
71
66
71
72
70
72
71
71
72

75
79
94
87
76
72
68
72
74
72
73
73
73
74

230
235
243
246
247
248
251

73
75
74
73
73
72
72

74
76
76
74
74
74
73

3
Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted
in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS

MONEY STOCK

All monetary aggregates rose sharply in June and July.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

1,000

200

200

I Ii iI ii IiI
1977

II i I I i I I I I I I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I
1971

1972

1973

1974

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

I i i i i Ii
1978
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
()verall measur es l

Deposil}S at com mercia] banks
Period
Ml

1973: Dec.. 270.5
1974: Dec._ 283.2
1975: Dec.. 295.4
1976: Dec__ 313. 8
1977: Dec.. 338.7
1978: Dec._ 361.2
1978: June. 352.5
July. 354.4
Aug. 356.7
Sept. 360.7
Oct.. 361.2
Nov_ 360.6
Dec. 361. 2
1979: Jan.. 359.7
Feb.. 358.6
Mar. 359.0
Apr__ 364.3
May. 364.5
June. 369.0
July* 372. 1
1

M1 +

397.9
419.5
456.8
517. 2
560. 6
587.2
578. 6
580. 1
583.6
589. 5
589.9
587.8
587.2
583.4
580. 1
579.6
585. 1
584.0
589.9
594.8

M2

571.3
612. 2
664.8
740.6
809.4
875.8
842. 6
848.6
856.5
865.6
870.2
873.7
875.8
875.0
876. 7
879.5
889.8
893.8
904.4
914.0

M3

919.0
981.0
1, 092. 4
1, 235. 6
1, 374. 3
1, 500. 1
1, 433. 1
1, 444. 5
1, 458. 0
1, 474. 1
1, 484. 8
1, 493. 1
1, 500. 1
1, 503. 7
1, 509. 7
1, 517. 5
1, 530. 8
1, 537. 0
1, 552. 3
1, 565. 8

Currency

61.6
67.8
73.8
80.8
88.6
97.5
92.5
93.2
93.9
95. 2
95.8
96.6
97.5
98.2
98.9
99.4
100.2
100.7
101.5
102. 3

Demand

209.0
215.3
221.7
233.0
250. 1
263.7
260.0
261.2
262. 8
265.5
265.3
264. 0
263. 7
261. 5
259.7
259.5
264. 1
263.8
267.5
269.8

Time and sa vings




Deposits
at nonVifmlr
U<*UL£L
thrift
till 11 U

Total 2 Large
CDs

Savings

institutions

363.7 63.0
418. 1 89.0
450. 3 81.0
489. 2 62.4
544.4 73.7
611.2 96.6
576.8 86.7
582. 1 88.0
587.4 87.6
593.5 88.5
597.7 88.6
608. 5 95.4
611.2 96. 6
615.8 100.5
620.2 102. 1
619.5 99.0
620.6 95.0
619.9 90.6
620. 3 84.9
626. 6 84. 7

127. 1
135.9
160.7
202. 1
219.7
223.0
223.5
222.9
224. 1
226.0
225.9
224. 3
223.0
220.8
218.6
217. 7
217.7
216. 4
217. 8
219.5

347.7
368.7
427.7
495.0
564.9
624.4
590.5
595.9
601.5
608.5
614.6
619. 5
624.4
628.7
633.0
638.0
641.0
643.2
647. 9
651. 8

Ml is currency plus demand deposits; M1+ is Ml plus savings deposits at
commercial banks and checkable deposits at nonbank thrift institutions; M2 is
Ml plus time and savings deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

26

Perce nt chanige3

(3ompone nts and related items

3
3

U.S.
Government
demand
deposits
(unadjusted)
6.3
4.9

4. 1
4.4

5. 1
10. 2
6.2
4.4
3.5
6.2

4. 2

8.0

10. 2
11.9

8.3
6.5
5.3
8.4

10.8
13.2

Ml

M1 +

M2

6.0
4.7
4.3
6.2
7.9
6.6
8.3
7.4
8.5

5.0
5.4
8.9

8.8
7.2
8.6

10. 5
7.8
5.7
5.0
3.0

13.2

8.4
4.7
6.5
5.6
6.6
8.3
6.3

4. 1
3.0

1. 1
1. 1 -1.2
-.9 -3.3
1. 7 -1. 6
2.2 -1.3
4.4
7.0

.9
3.9

11.4

9.3
8.2
8.4

8. 1
9.3

10. 7
19.8

9.0
8.0
6.3
4.8
3.2
4.6
4.7
6.6

9. 1

Includes time deposits other than large CDs, not shown separately.
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are
from 6 months earlfer at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: Board Of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Curre ncy and c deposits
Period

1971:
1972:
1973:
1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:

Dec _
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

_

1978: July
Aug

Sept.
Oct___
Nov

Dec.
1979: Jan_
Feb
_
Mar

Apr_

May

June_._
July »_

_ _

U.S. Ti-easury
secui ities

Time d eposits

Other
private
money
market
instruments

Negotiable
certificates of
deposit

Total
liquid
assets

Total

854.2
967. 1
1, 084. 8
1, 169. 8
1, 289. 2
1, 421. 8
1, 588. 6
1, 769. 9

721. 1
816. 6
887. 3
944. 8
1, 054. 5
1, 193. 0
1, 326. 5
1, 452. 0

52.5
56.9
61.6
67. 8
73. 8
80.8
88.6
97.5

161.8
176. 1
183.7
187.3
192.6
200. 2
214. 1
226. 1

233.5
264. 4
294. 3
321. 0
360.4
417. 1
459.0
504.0

273. 3
319. 1
347.7
368. 7
427. 7
495. 0
564. 9
624.4

54. 3
57. 6
60.4
63. 3
67. 3
71.9
76. 6
80. 6

31. 3
34.3
43. 3
47. 0
66. 1
66.2
77. 2
85.3

27. 6
36. 2
53. 8
70.4
58. 1
43.0
52. 0
66. 7

19.8
22. 5
40.0
44.4
43. 2
47.7
56. 3
85.3

1, 691. 5
1, 704. 9
1, 724. 2
1, 736. 2
1, 754. 1
1, 769. 9

1, 397. 0
1, 410. 6
1, 426. 2
1} 437. 4
1, 445. 7
1, 452. 0

93.2
93.9
95.2
95.8
96.6
97. 5

224.7
226. 3
228.5
228. 0
226. 5
226. 1

483. 2
488.9
494. 1
499. 0
503. 1
504. 0

595. 9
601.5
608.5
614. 6
619. 5
624.4

79.3
79.5
79.8
80. 1
80. 3
80.6

80.9
81.3
84. 0
83.2
82. 2
85.3

62. 7
61. 4
61.4
60. 5
66. 1
66. 7

71.6
72. 0
72.7
75. 2
79. 9
85.3

1, 783. 2
1, 795. 3
1, 806. 7
1, 825. 7
1, 834. 1
1, 849. 4
1, 869. 5

1, 456. 2
1, 462. 9
1, 470. 6
1, 485. 4
1, 490. 9
1, 504. 8
1, 520. 3

98.2
98.9
99. 4
100.2
100. 7
101.5
102. 3

224. 2
222. 6
222.2
227.6
226. 2
228. 6
231.5

505. 1
508. 4
511. 1
516.5
520. 8
527. 1
534. 1

628.7
633. 0
638.0
641.0
643. 2
647. 6
652.4

80.7
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.6
80. 6

87. 3
88.7
92. 8
97.2
100.3
102. 8
102. 9

69. 3
69. 4
64.9
60.7
56. 5
51.3
51. 2

89.7
93.7
97.7
101.9
105.9
109.9
114.4

Currency

Demand
deposits

Commercial
banks

ShortNonbank
term
thrift
Savings marketinstitubonds able setions
curities

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Installnrtent credit e xtended

Installm ent credit li quidated

Net change in amount outstanding

T> * J
Period

Total *

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978: June
July
Aug

Sept
Oct
_

Nov

Dec__ „

1979: Jan

Feb
Mar

Apr_
May _
June.

Automobile

Revolving

Automobile

Revolving

Total i

Automobile
4, 194
5, 621
5,910

Revolving

138, 046
151, 749
173, 035
172, 765
180, 441
211, 028
254, 071
298, 574

36, 706
43, 702
49, 606
46, 514
52, 420
63, 743
75, 641
88, 986

21, 862
24, 659
28, 702
33, 213
36, 956
43, 934
86, 756
104, 587

127,
136,
152,
163,
172,
189,
218,
253,

789
787
817
276
676
381
793
508

32, 512
38, 081
43, 696
46, 019
49, 444
53, 278
60, 437
69, 429

20, 818
23, 485
26, 699
31, 243
35,616
41, 764
80, 508
96, 811

10, 257
14, 962
20, 218
9, 489
7,765
21, 647
35, 278
45, 066

2, 976
10, 465
15, 204
19, 557

495

1,044
1, 174
2,003
1,970
1,340
2, 170
6,248
7, 776

25, 565
25, 022
25, 669
25, 537
25, 758
26, 214
26, 500

7,595
7,652
7, 744
7,542
7,501
7,787
7,833

9,062
8,700
9, 028
9,006
8,846
9, 176
9,424

21,
21,
22,
21,
22,
22,
22,

358
556
037
857
384
115
100

5, 953
5,941
6, 140
6, 010
6, 126
6,032
6, 053

8, 107
8, 100
8,291
8,384
8,500
8, 511
8,555

4,207
3,466
3,632
3, 680
3, 374
4, 099
4,400

1,642
1, 711
1, 604
1,532
1,375
1,755
1,780

955
600
737
622
346
665
869

25, 544
26, 202
26, 698
26, 889
28, 027
26, 644

7,545
7,756
7,797
7,845
8, 227
7, 471

9,417
9, 357
9,714
9,722
10, 170
10, 136

22,
22,
22,
22,
24,
23,

483
894
967
851
295
763

5, 865
6, 191
6, 311
6,526
7, 002
6, 316

8,984
9,040
8, 972
8,804
9, 424
9, 340

3,061
3, 308
3, 731
4,038
3,732
2,881

1,680
1,565
1,486
1,319
1,225
1, 155

433
317
742
918
746
796

i Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.




Total *

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

9.7

BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Bank loans continued to expand rapidly in July.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

_ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

INVESTMENT IN

OTHER SECURITIES

,„».«»'"

100

100

80

80

INVESTMENT IN
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

60

60

i i I i i Ii ii i i
1971

40

I I I I III

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1978

1977

^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Period

485.
558.
633.
691.
721.
785.
870.

7
0
4
1
8
1
6

320. 9

977.7

500. 2
496. 9
538. 9
617.0
715.4

1978: July » _ _ _
Aug"
_
Sept*_ _
Oct *>_
_ _
Nov *

940. 0

674. 0

1979: Jan *_ _ _ _
Feb v
Mar p. _
Apr *>
May v*>_ ___

June — _
July v _

1
3

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All me]mber ban^ ts
Allc ommercial fcanks 1
Borrowirigs (milLc>ans
Investortents
lions of dollars,
BDeserves 2 *
Total
unadju isted) 2
loans
and
Total exU.S. Gov- Other
invest- cluding CommerSeaNonReernment
cial and
secuTotal
Total
ments
sonal
inter- industrial
borrowed quired
securities
rities
bank

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975__
1976___
1977
1978 *

Dec v_ _ _ _

945.9
958. 1

967.3
977.6
977.7
998. 6
1, 007. 7
1, 012. 6
1, 024. 3
1, 035. 2
I, 048. 7
1, 059. 8

378.9
449.0

680.6
691.6

700.9

715. 1
715.4

116. 2
130.4
156. 6
183.5
176. 2
179.7
201.4

230.9
220. 8
223. 1

225.2
227.6
230.7

230. 9

732. 4
738. 3
743. 4

237.8
240.6
243.5

753.0

247. 3
252. 2

760. 2
771.7
779. 9

255.6
259. 3

60. 6
62. 6
54.5
51. 1
80. 1
98.0
95. 6
88.8

104. 2
116. 5
129.9
139.8
144.8
148.2
158. 0
173.5

100. 8

98.3
97.8
96.0
91.4
88.8
89.4
92. 1
90.5
91. 9
94. 6
95.7
97. 6

Data are for end of period.
Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.
* Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages
with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M.

28



40

1979

165. 2
167.0
168.7
170.4
171. 1
173.5

31. 16
31.34
34.90
36.55
34. 67
34. 89
36. 10
41.27
38. 11
37.93
38. 21
38.38
39.75
41.27

31.03
30.29
33. 60
35. 83
34.54
34.83
35.53
40.40
36.80
36.79
37. 15
37. 10
39.05
40.40

30.98
31.05
34. 60
36. 30
34.40
34.61
35. 91
41. 04
37.92
37.77
38. 02
38. 22
39. 53
41. 04

176.8
177.3
178.7
179.4
180.4
181.3
182. 3

41.48
40.75
40.81
40.65
40. 48
40. 42
40.82

40.48
39.78
39.82
39.73
38.72
39.00
39. 65

41.26
40. 54
40. 66
40. 47
40. 34
40. 20
40. 61

107

1, 049
1,298

703
127
62
558
874

41
32
13
12
54
134

1,286
1, 147
1,068
1,261

143
188
191
221
185
134

994
973
999
897

112
114
121
134
173
188
168

722
874

1,777
1,396
1, 179

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses

Pur-

External
Period

Total

Credii ; market ;"unds

Inter1

nal

chase

Total

TVitfll

Longterm 2

Short-3
term
8.6
3.9

Other

58.9
68. 6
80.8
83.8
75.7
106.8
124.7
135.3
141.5

45.5
58.5
80.9
115.9
115. 1
37.0
80.3
103.6
146.6

40.7
44.5
58.3
72.7
81.8
37.0
58.2
78. 7
91.2

32. 1
40. 6
40.6
37.0
39. 1
49.3
48.8
46. 2
49.3

32.6
41.8

123.8
134.9
145.5
137.3

120.5
63. 7
120.6
109.9

75.9
63.7
80. 1
95.2

34. 4
35.3
53.5
61.5

41. 6
28. 5
26.6
33.7

40.5
14.7

III

273.6
290.8

309. 3

127.2
144. 1
146. 1
148.8

151.0
129.5
144. 7
160.5

95.8
84.4
86.0
98.4

35.4
54.2
58.8
48.9

60.5
30.3
27.2
49.5

1979:1"

303.6

138.3

165.3

104.2

39.8

64.5

1970
1971

1972.___

1973
1974

1975-_-.

1976

1977____

1978- _

_ _

___

_

104.3
127. 1
161.7
199.8
190.8
143.8

205.0
239.0

288. 1

1977: I_ _ _ _ _
II
_
III
_
IV

266.0

1978: !.__ _

278. 2

II_
IV

_ _

244.3

198.6

247. 1

1

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.
*1 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.
Bank loans, commercial paper,financecompany loans, bankers' acceptances,
and Government loans.

1
9 0O
L£i.
9.5

of

physi-

cal

in
finan-

assets 4

cial
assets

Dis-

crepancy
(sources
less
uses)

14. 1
22. 7
43.3
33.4
.0
22.0
24.9
55.3

95.9
119.6
145. 8
185.6
179.0
131. 9
184.9
212. 3
274. 2

80. 3
86.0
100.3
123. 3
134.7
99.9
141. 2
164.6
195.8

15.6
33. 6
45.6
62.3
44.4
32.0
43.7
47. 8
78.4

15.9
14.2
11.8
11.9
20. 1
26.7
13.9

44.6

214.6
177.3

234.6

152.5
162. 4
175.2
168.0

62. 1
14.9
59. 4
54.7

29.6
21.3
31.4
24.4

55.2
45. 1
58.7
62.2

258.9
264.4
280.7
292.4

180.2
199.9
200. 6

19.2

202.4

78.7
64.5
80. 1
90.0

10. 2
17.0

61. 1

291.9

215.4

76. 5

11.7

4.8

17.6
35.7
42. 6

Total

Increase

-.0

222. 7

8.4
7.5

9.2

4

Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Curre nt assets
End of period
Total

SEC series:2
1970
492.3
1971
529. 6
1972
599.3
1973__.
697. 8
1974
790.7
FTC-FRB series:3
1974
735.4
1975
759.0
1976826.3
1977
900.9
1978. _
1, 028. 1

Cash

Cur rent liabil ities

Notes
U.S.
and
governInvenacment
tories
counts
securities receivable

Other
current
assets

Total

Notes
and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

Net
working
capital

Current
ratio l

50.2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71. 1

7.7
11.0
10. 6
12.8
12. 3

206. 1
221. 1
248. 2
288. 5
322. 1

193. 3
200.4
225.7
263. 9
313.6

35.0
43. 8
55. 8
66.4
71.7

304.9
326. 0
375.6
450.9
530.4

211. 3
220. 5
282. 9
340. 3
402.3

93. 6
105.5
92. 7
110.7
128. 1

187. 4
203.6
223. 7
246. 9
260.3

1.615
1.625
1.595
1. 548
1.491

73.2
82. 1
87.3
94.3
103.5

11. 1
19. 0
23. 6
18. 7
17.8

265.8
272. 1
293. 3
325. 0
381. 9

319.5
315.9
342. 9
375. 6
428. 3

65. 9
69. 9
79.2
87. 3
96.5

453.4
451. 6
492. 7
546.8
662. 2

269.8
264. 2
282. 0
313. 7
375. 1

183. 6
187. 4
210. 6
233. 1
287. 1

282. 0
307.4
333. 6
354. 1
365. 9

1. 622
1.681
1.677
1. 648
1.552

1977: I
II
III
IV

844.7
858.5
881.8
900.9

81. 4
83. 3
83.5
94. 3

24. 2
19. 9
19.3
18. 7

304. 4
313.0
326. 9
325. 0

353.4
359. 9
368. 3
375.6

81. 3
82. 5
83.8
87. 3

507.6
514. 1
533.2
546.8

290. 1
295.9
306. 1
313. 7

217. 5
218. 1
227. 1
233. 1

337. 1
344. 5
348. 6
354. 1

1. 664
1. 670
1.654
1. 648

1978: I
II
III
IV

925.0
954.2
992.6
1, 028. 1

88.8
91. 3
91.6
103. 5

18. 6
17.3
16. 1
17.8

337.4
356. 0
376.4
381.9

390. 5
399. 3
415.5
428. 3

89. 6
90. 3
92. 9
96.5

574.2
593. 5
626. 3
662. 2

325.2
337.9
356. 2
375. 1

249. 0
255. 6
270.0
287. 1

350. 7
360. 7
366. 3
365.9

1.
1.
1.
1.

1979: I

1, 078. 2

102. 2

19. 1

405. 0

452.6

99. 3

701.8

392. 6

309.2

376. 4

1.536

1
Total current
2
Based on data
3

divided by
current liabilities.
from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.
on
from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and
Trade Corporations,
Commission.




NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
FTC-FRB series revised.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal
Commission,
Commission.

611
608
585
552

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Short rates climbed further in August. The discount and prime rates were adjusted upward.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

PERCENT PER ANNUM

10
CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW

[Percent per annum]
Period

1973__
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978: Aug.
Sept.. .
Oct
Nov
Dec
1979: Jan
Feb
Mar. . _
Apr
May
June__
July
Aug*>
Week ended:
1979: Aug 4
ll-._
18

25
Sept 1

U.S. Tre asury seeurity yields
Constant inaturities 2
3-month
bills *
3-year
10-year
7. 041
7.886
5.838
4.989
5.265
7.221
7.036
7.836
8.132
8.787
9. 122
9.351
9.265
9.457
9.493
9.579
9. 045
9.262
9.450
9. 154
9.320
9.495
9. 599
9.680

.. _ _

High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount
municipal
mercial
rate
Aaa
paper,
(N.Y.
bonds
bonds
(Standard
F.R.
4-6
Bank)4
& Poor's)3 (Moody's) months

6.95
7.82
7.49
6.77
6.69
8.29
8.33
8.41
8.62
9.04
9.33
9.50
9.29
9.38
9.43
9.42
8.95
8.94

6.84
7.56
7.99
7.61
7.42
8.41
8.41
8.42
8.64
8.81
9.01
9. 10
9. 10
9. 12
9. 18
9.25
8.91
8.95

5. 18
6. 09
6.89
6.49
5.56
5.90
5.98
5.93
5. 95
6.03
6.33
6. 25
6. 19
6. 16
6. 14
6. 10
5.99
6.05

7.44
8.57
8.83
8.43
8.02
8.73
8.69
8.69
8.89
9.03
9. 16
9.25
9.26
9.37
9.38
9. 50
9.29
9.20

8. 15
9.87
6.33
5.35
5. 60
7.99
7.90
8.44
9.03
10.23
10.43
10. 32
10.01
9.96
9.87
9.98
9.71
9.82

9.01
8.98
9. 06
9.20

8.97
8.94
9. 00
9.06

6.05
6. 02
6.05
6. 13

9. 24
9, 20
9.20
9. 23

9.98
10.07
10.32
10.56

•*2 Bate on new issues within period.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities
by the Treasury Department.
s4 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
effective rate for year; opening and closing
for
week.

30



6.45
7.83
6.25
5. 50
5.46
7.46
7J4-7J4
7Ji-8
8-8X2
9K-9K
9/2-9/2

9/2-9H
9^-9%
9/2-9/2

9/2-9K
9/2-9/2

Prime
rate
charged

by

banks 4

8.03
10.81
7. 86
6.84
6. 83
9.06
9-9^

gy4-g%
WA-mi
10/2-11/2
11/2-11%
s

n A-n%
n%-ny4

ll%rll%
s

n%-n A
n3A~n%

9}4-9J*
9^-10

nji-iiK
11^-11%

10-10
10-10
10-10K

iiji-nji

io/2-ioK
10/2-

Newhome
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)*
7. 95
8.92
9. 01
8.99
9.01
9.54
9.70
9.73
9.83
9.87
10.02
10. 18
10.20
10.30
10.36
10.47
10.66
10.75

iiji-nji

n%-i2
12-12

12-

5
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting
fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment
at end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with
prior
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of
of the
Beserve System, Federal
Moody's
Service,
& Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose again in August.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50
80

INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50
80

- 70

10

- 5

.1971

1979

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD &' POOR'S CORPORATION

Common si lock syields
(pere<3nt)

Cominon stock p rices 1
Period

New York Stock Excb ange indexes ( Dec. 31, 1L965=50) *
Composite Industrial Transportation

1973
_ _„
1974_ _
1975 . _
1976
1977
1978
1978: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1979: Jan___ „_
Feb— _ _
Mar
_
Apr_ _ _
May_ _
June
July
Week ended:
1979: July 28
Aug 4
11
18
25

Utility

57. 42
43.84
45.73
54.46
53.69
53.70
54.61
58.53
58.58
56.40
52.74
53. 69
55.77
55. 08
56. 19
57.50
56.21
57.61
58.38

63.08
48.08
50.52
60.44
57.86
58.23
59.35
64.07
64.23
61.60
57.50
58.72
61.31
60.37
61.89
63.63
62.21
63.57
64. 24

37.74
31.89
31. 10
39.57
41.09
43.50
44.74
49.45
50. 19
46.70
41.80
42. 49
43.69
42.27
.43. 22
45.92
45.60
47.54
48.85

37.69
29.79
31.50
36.97
40.92
39.22
39.28
40.20
39.82
39.44
37.88
38.09
38,83
39.21
38.94
38.63
37.48
38.44
38.88

70.12
49.67
47. 14
52.94
55.25
56.65
57.97
63.28
63.22
60.42
5495
55.68
57. 59
56.09
57.65
59.50
58.80
61.87
64.43

58.35
59. 19
60. 15
61.47
62.02

64, 22
65. 18
66.35
67.98
68. 73

49. 17
50.41
51.74
53. 09
53.23

38.79
38. 94
39. 13
39.42
39.52

64. 28
66. 12
67.37
69. 04
69.27

1
Average of daily closing prices.
1
Includes all the stocks (more than
8

1,500)
on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
«Includes 500 stocks.
»Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price
on Wednesday closing
prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.




Finance

Standard
& Poor's
DowEarningsJones
composite Dividendprice
price
index
industrial
ratio
ratio
average 3 (1941-43=
10) '
7. 12
923. 88
3.06
107. 43
11.59
759. 37
82.85
447
431
a 15
802. 49
86. 16
102. 01
8.90
974. 92
3.77
462
894. 63
98.20
10.79
12.05
820. 23
96.02
5.28
831. 72
5. 25
97. 19
493
887. 93
103. 92
11.30
878. 64
4 97
103. 86
5.11
857. 69
100. 58
804. 29
94. 71
5.45
12.85
5.39
807. 94
96. 11
5.28
837. 39
99.71
98.23
5.43
825. 18
13. 06
100. 11
5.36
847. 84
5.35
864. 95
102. 07
5.58
837. 41
99.73
5.53
838. 65
101. 73
102. 71
5.50
836. 95

834. 86
845. 92
859. 37
881. 04
883. 73

102. 57
103. 85
105. 56
107. 92
108. 79

5.48
5.45
5.36
5.25
5.22

NOTE.—All
relate to stocks listed on the New York
Exchange
(NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation,

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT
In the first 10 months of fiscal 1979, the budget deficit was $30.0 billion. A year earlier the deficit was $47.9 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

500

500

400

400
OUTLAYS

V'
300

300

RECEIPTS

200

200

50

50
SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)

-50

-50

-100

-100
1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1977

1976

1979

1978

1980

FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Receipts

Period
Fiscal year or period:
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
•
1975
1976
Transition quarter
_
1977
1978
1979 (estimates):
Mid-Session Review, July 19792.Third Concurrent Resolution, May 19793
1980 (estimates) :
Mid-Session Review, July 19792 __
First Concurrent Resolution, May 1979 4
Cumulative total first 10 months:
Fiscal year 1978
___
Fiscal year 1979
1
2

_ _

_

Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1980 Budget, Office of Management
and
Budget, as revised July 31,1979.
3
Third Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1979, May 24,1979.

32



Outlays

Surplus or
deficit ( — )

3.2

187.8
193,7
188.4
208. 6
232. 2
264 9
281.0
300.0
81. 8
357.8
402. 0

184.5
196. 6
211.4
232. 0
247. 1
269.6
326. 2
366.4
94.7
402.7
450.8

-45. 2
-66.4
-13.0
-45.0
-48.8

466.5
461.0

496.8
494.5

-30.3
-33. 5

513.9
509.0

543.0
532.0

-29. 1
-23.0

324.4
379.3

372.3
409. 3

-47.9
-30.0

-2.8
-23.0
-23. 4
-14.8
-47

Federal debt ( end of period)
Total *

Held by
the public

367. 1
382.6
409. 5
437.3
468.4
486. 2
544 1
631.9
646.4
709. 1
780.4

279. 5
2849
304 3
323.8
343.0
346. 1
396. 9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9

760.2
814.7

599. 1
637. 1

* First Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1980, May 24,1979.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget,
except as noted.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 10 months of fiscal 1979, budget receipts were $54.9 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were
$37.0 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

200

OUTLAYS

400

400

300
NONDEFENSE

\

300

--^*

_,**•"*

200

200

NATIONAL DEFENSE

100

100

I

J_
v

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES: DfPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
()utlays

Receipts
Nationa . defense
Period

Total

Indi- Corpovidual ration Other
income income
taxes
taxes

Fiscal year or period:
1969
1970
____
1971
1972
_ _ _
1973
_ _ _ _ _
1974_
1975
__. __
1976
Transition quarter. _ _
1977
__
1978
1979 (estimates) *
1980 (estimates) *___

187.8
193. 7
188.4
208. 6
232.2
264.9
281. 0
300.0
81.8
357.8
402. 0
466. 5
513.9

87.2
90.4
86. 2
94. 7
103. 2
119. 0
122. 4
131. 6
38.8
157. 6
181. 0
216. 6
234.2

36.7
32.8
26.8
32.2
36. 2
38.6
40.6
41. 4

Cumulative total first 10
months :
Fiscal year 1978
Fiscal year 1979_

324. 4
379.3

145. 3
177. 3

Total

Interna- Health
In- Other
and
Depart- tional income
ment of affairs security terest
Defense,
military

184. 5
196. 6
211. 4
232. 0
247. 1
269. 6
326. 2
366.4
94.7
402.7
450. 8
496.8
543. 0

79. 4
78.6
75.8
76.6
74.5
77.8
85. 6
89.4,
22. 3
97. 5
105.2
115. 5
126. 8

77.9
77. 1
74.5
75. 1
73. 2
77. 6
84. 9
87.9
21. 9
95. 6
103.0
112.8
123.6

4.6
4.3

54.9
60. 0
67.8
71.2

63.9
70.5
75.4
81.7
92.8
107. 4
118. 0
127.0
34.5
145.2
161. 1
182. 1
208.5

49. 1
54.7

130.0
147.3

372.3
409.3

86.4
95.9

84. 7
95. 1

4. 7

8.5

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1980 Budget, Office of Management
and Budget, as revised July 31,1979,




Total

4. 1
4. 7
4. 1
5.7
6.9

5. 6
2. 2

4.8

5. 9
7. 3

9.0

3.7

49.0
56. 1
70. 1
81.4
91.8
106.5
136. 3
160. 9
41.5
176. 7
189.9
211.4
241. 1

15.8
18. 3
19.6
20. 6
22.8
28.0
30.9
34.5
38. 0
44. 0
53. 0
57. 8

35.7
39.3
41.8
48.8
53.9
51.6
66.5
76. 1
21.5
85.7
105. 9
109.5
108. 2

157. 5
173.2

37.2
44. 6

86. 5
91.9

7.2

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office oi Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $10.4 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $6.0 billion, yielding a deficit of $7.5 billion, $4.2 billion lower than the first quarter deficit.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
600

- 550
500

200

i

i

i

i

1 . 1

I

i

i

i

1

i

I

i

i

I

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

M 150

50

50
SURPLUS

i^a |g \z& m t^/fl t£la &"-< t^u
DEFICIT

fc^J 1222 1222 |^|

I

-50 -

-100
1972

1973

PI
I
\
I

V/A u*A

_ _50

"1

19 75

1974

I !•••

-100
1977

1976

1979

1978

1980

CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal (jrovernm ent receipts
Period

Fiscal year:

Indirect
Personal Corporate business
tax
and
Total nontax profits tax and
tax
nontax
receipts accruals
accruals
283.5

Surplus
or
deficit

Fcjderal G<sverameiat expenciitures

Subsidies Less:
GrantsPurless
Wage
in-aid
chases Trans- to State Net
current accruals national
for
Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less
income
social inand
ments local
paid Govern- disand
surance
services
ment en- burse- product
governterprises ments accounts
ments

(-),

Contributions

127. 1
137.0
166. 0

186.3

42. 1
51.7
59.1
67.7

22.2
24.3
24.5
27.2

92. 1
100.9
116.4
133.5

328.7
371. 1
411.4
450. 1

118.0
125.7
140.3
150.7

134.3
156.5
169.6
182.0

48.4
57.6
66.3
74.7

21.9
25.2
28.4
33.1

5.7
6.2
6.9
9.6

-.4
.0
.0
.0

-57.3
-45.5
-35.4

42.8
54. 6
61.8
72.0

23.9
23.4
25. 1
28. 1

94.2
106. 3
118.9
137.0

356.8
385. 0
421.7
459. 8

123. 1
129.7
144. 4
152.6

149.1
161. 7
172.7
185.4

54.6
61. 1
67.5
77.3

23.2
26.8
29. 0
34. 8

6.8
5.8

432. 1

125.4
147. 2
169.6
194.9

8. 1
9.7

.0
.0
.0
.0

— 70.6
-53.6
— 46. 3
-27.7

1977: III__ 375.8
IV___ 388.2

167.8
176.2

62. 6
63.8

25.6
25. 7

119.7 429.4
122. 6 441. 8

145.6
151. 2

175.6
178.0

71.4
70.4

29.0
30.4

7.9

.0

-53.6
-53.6

397.8
1978: I
EL__ 424. 8
IIL_ 442. 1

178.9
188.8
200.9
211. 0

60. 2
72.2
74. 6
81. 2

26.6
28. 0
28.4
29.3

132.2
135.8
138.2
142. 0

447.3
449.4
462. 6
479.7

150.9
148. 2
152.3
159.0

179.8
180.7
188.8
192. 1

74.4
76.7
77.6
80.7

32.5
34.0
35.6
37.1

9.7

.0

10.9

.0

.2

-49.4
-24.6
-20.4
-16.3

213. 0
223. 4

77.2
74. 5

29.4
29.9

155.5 486.8
157.5 492. 8

163.6
161. 5

196.8
202. 1

77.8
77.7

40.0
42.4

8.3
9.1

-.2
.0

-11.7
-7.5

1975
1976
1977
1978

313. 9

366.0

414.7

Calendar
year:
1975_._ _ 286.2

331.4

1976
1977
1978

375.4

IV___ 463.5

1979:1

475.0

II *>__ 485.4

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of toe Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34



11.8
9. 8
8.4

.0
.0

—45.3

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967=100]
In dustria produ(jtion (setisonally adjustec 1)
1
Period

Japan

United CanStates ada

_ _ 119.7
129.8
129. 3
1974
117.8
1975..
130.5
1976
138.2
1977
146. 1
1978
1978: Sept.— 148.6
149.7
Oct
150. 6
Nov
151. 8
Dec
1979: Jan.. __ 151.5
152. 0
Feb
Mar p*>___ 153. 0
Apr ___ 150.8
May p _ _ 152. 4
June*'-. 152. 3
July *>__ 152. 1
1972__
1973___

France

167.0
190. 5
183, 1
163.9
182. 0
189. 7
201. 1
204. 3
205.2
205.9
208. 4
208. 5
211. 3
210. 8
212.5
216.7
217.2

130. 6
143. 5
148. 5
139. 6
147.4
152. 1
160. 9
166. 2
165.2
166. 2
167. 1
167.8
167. 3
168.9
166.7
167.7

135
145
148
139
148
152
154
157
157
160
160
159
159
160
157
161
161

Cons>umer p rices (un ad jus tecI)

Germany

Italy

United United CanKing- States 1 ada Japan France
dom

138.7
147. 7
145. 1
137. 1
149. 1
152.7
155. 8

122.7
134. 6
140. 6
127.6
143. 5
145. 1
147. 6
147. 1
154.4
154. 8
152. 6
152.4
159. 8
156.0
157.2
152.4
145.5

113. 2
123. 0
120.0
114. 3
117.4
122.8
126. 6
127. 4
125. 2
126. 5
128.6
120.6
131.4
133.2
131.6
133.0
135.3

159
159
159
159
159
157
161
161
164
165

125. 3
133. 1
147. 7
161.2
170. 5
181. 5
195.4
199.3
200. 9
202. 0
202.9
204.7
207. 1
209. 1
211. 5
214. 1
216.6
218. 9

132. 3
147.9
184.0
205. 8
224. 9
243.0
252.3
256.4
256.8
254. 1
253. 7
253.9
253. 1
255. 1
258.6
261.3
261.5

121. 2
130. 3
144.5
160. 1
172. 1
185.9
202. 5
205. 2
207.3
209. 0
209. 6
211. 2
213. 2
215.7
217. 2
219.3
220. 3
222. 1

Germany

131. 1
140. 7
160. 0
178.9
196. 1
214.5
233. 9
238.6
240.8
242. 1
243.2
245.5
247. 1
249.4
251.8
254. 5
256. 6 .

119.0
127. 2
136. 1
144. 2
150. 7
156.6
160.7
160.6
160.6
161. 1
161.8
163.5
164.5
165.5
166. 4
167.0
167.8
168.8

Italy

121.0
134.0
159. 7
186. 8
218. 1
255. 2
286.2
292.9
295.5
298.6
300. 1
305. 1
309.7
313.8
317.8
321.9
325. 1
328.0

United
Kingdom

137. 7
150.2
174.3
216.5
252. 4
292. 4
316.6
321.6
323. 1
325.3
328. 0
332. 9
335. 6
338.3
344. 1
346.8
352.8
368.0

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau
of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic
Research, in International Economic Indicators.

i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merch andise e xports l

Merc landise i mports
Ge neral im 3orts

Domesti 3 exports
Period

Total
domestic and
foreign Total
exports

2

Food, Crude
Food, Crude
bever- matebever- mate- Manu2
facrials
Total
ages,
rials
ages,
tured
and
and
toand to- and
goods
fuels
bacco
fuels
bacco

F.a.s. valu e 5

Monthly
average :
1973
1974

Manufactured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value) 4

3,750
4, 684

6, 131
9,000

Mer jhandise trade
balance
ExExports
(f.a.s.) ports Exports
less
(f.a.s.) (f.a.s.)
imless
less
imports
imports
(cusports
(c.i.f.)
toms (f.a.s.)
value)

Custoiris value

5,902
8, 159

5, 811
8, 045

1, 078
1,269

895
1,317

3, 728
5,294

5,790
8,416

1974
8,159
1975
8,966
1976
9, 596
1977
10, 096
1978
11,965
1978: July___ 11, 662
Aug __ 12, 294
Sep.... 13, 274
Oct..- 12, 901
Nov
13, 451
Dec __ 13, 283
1979: Jan____ 13, 132
Feb.... 13, 507
Mar_.__ 14, 452
Apr_ _ 13, 883
May
13, 862
June
15, 038
July... 15, 669

8,045
8,842
9,456
9,912
11, 756
11, 497
12, 101
13? 066
12, 670
13, 212
13, 054
12, 923
13, 283
14, 165
13, 636
13, 578
14, 774
15, 433

1, 269
1,399
1,436
1,330
1,719
1,799
1,960
1,877
1,786
1,634
1,692
1,437
1, 557
1, 765
1, 758
1,807
2, 182
2,352

1,317
1,266
1, 341
1,548
1,746
1, 620
1, 718
1, 901
1, 934
2,040
2,047
2, 143
2,009
2,313
2, 134
1,939
2, 286
2,441

5, 294
5,913
6, 437
6, 679
7,874
7,728
8, 094
8,586
8,626
8,913
8,907
8,759
9,078
9,403
9, 056
9,068
9,639
9,819

8, 354
8,048
10, 084
12, 307
14, 336
14, 545
14, 133
14, 820
14, 852
14, 825
15, 032
16, 231
14, 806
15, 273
16, 036
16, 342
16, 937
16, 777

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all
periods
and from monthly detail beginning January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
8
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
* C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the
United States. Data for 1973 are estimates.




s

770
892
F.a.s.
892
827
991
1, 186
1,312
1, 313
1, 123
1, 235
1,358
1,369
1,452
1,486
1,261
1,437
1, 540
1,456
1,552
1, 386

1, 120
2, 653
value §
2,672
2,718
3,457
4, 463
4, 329
4, 176
4,519
4,513
4,355
4,443
4,578
5, 145
4,438
4, 890
5, 186
5,206
5, 504
5,966

4, 602
4,257
5, 398
6, 379
8, 363
8, 729
8, 167
8,767
8,755
8,691
8, 617
9,291
8,824
8,596
9, 023
9, 232
9,475
9, 065 I

112
-257

-195

-229
-841

841
9, 000
—257 —195
312
8,654
918
853
10, 825
—581 —488 — 1, 229
13, 130 —2, 297 —2,211 —3, 034
15, 261 -2, 476-2, 371 -3,297
-2, 883 -3,834
15, 495
-1,839 -2,780
15, 074
15, 821
-1,546 -2, 547
-1,951 -2, 863
15, 764
17, 770
-1, 374 -2, 319
-1,749 -2, 724
16, 006
-3,099 -4, 150
17, 282
-1,300 -2, 213
15, 720
-821 -1,776
16, 228
-2, 153 -3, 171
17, 053
-2, 480 -3, 488
17, 350
-1,900 -2, 940
17, 977
17, 823
— 1, 108 -2, 154

s F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports
and at foreign port of exportation for imports.
NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
The deficit on merchandise trade rose to $7.6 billion in the second quarter from $6.1 billion in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

10

10

-15

-15
1971

1979
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Merchandise

Period

1972
1973
1974
1975______
1976
1977
1978

Exports

Imports

Invcjstment ID come3

12

TMaf
XNcT;

balance

Receipts

Payments

49, 381 -55,797 -6,416 14, 764 -6, 544
71,410 -70,499
911 21, 808 -9, 655
98, 306 -103,648 -5, 343 27, 587 -12, 084
9,047 25, 351 -12,564
107, 088 -98, 041
114, 745 -124, 051 -9, 306 29, 286 -13,311
120, 816 -151, 689 — 30, 873 32, 587 - 14, 598
141, 884 -176,071 -34, 187 43, 465 -21, 820

1977: III..
IV__

30, 558 -37,996 -7,438
29, 665 -38, 869 -9,204

1978: !..._
IL_.
III..
IV..

30, 811
35, 267
36, 491
39, 315

1979: I *__
II*..

41, 350 -47,448 -6, 098 13, 877 -7, 101
42, 760 -50, 399 -7,639

1
Excludes military
1

-42, 710 -11,899
-43, 174 -7,907
-44, 503 -8, 012
-45, 684 -6, 369

8,420 -3,686
8,312 -4, 201
9,776
10, 256
10, 526
12, 907

-4, 537
-5,402
-5,574
-6, 308

grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
* Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct
investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and
included in other services, net.

36



Net

8,
12,
15,
12,
15,
17,
21,

Net
military
transactions

Nettravel
and
transportation
receipts

220 -3, 420 -3, 063
153 -2, 070 -3, 158
503 -1, 653 -3, 184
-746 -2, 725
787
674 -2, 465
975
989
1, 679 -3, 200
492 -2, 985
645

Other
services,
net 8

Balance
on
goods
and
serv-1
ices

Remittances,
pensions,
and
otner
unilateral
transfers *

Balance
on
current
account

2, 789 — 1, 889 -3, 854 -5, 744
7, 141
3, 185 11, 022 -3, 881
3,975
9,298 -7, 186
2, 113
4, 590 22, 952 -4, 613 18, 339
4,725
9,603 -4, 998
4,605
4,983 -9,423 -4, 670 -14,092
6, 226 -8,809 -5, 086- 13, 895

4,734
4, 111

407
357

-693
-787

1,331 - 1, 659 - 1, 249 -2, 908
1,251 -4, 272 -1,023 -5, 295

5, 239
4,854
4, 952
6, 599

244
237
247
-239

-731
-798
-784
-672

1,439 -5, 707 -1,228 -6, 935
1,501 -2, 113 -1,313 -3,426
1,603 -1,994 — 1, 233 -3,227
-313
1,001 -1,314
1, 682

6,776

-125

-568

1, 501

1,486 -1,329

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

157

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the first quarter of 1979, the gross outflow of private capital—which was almost $30 billion in the fourth quarter
of 1978—fell to less than $1.5 billion. Private capital inflows rose slightly from $10.5 to $12.8 billion. The counterpart to this net capital inflow was a accumulation of foreign official assets in the United States of $8.5 billion and a
rise in the gross income position of the U.S. Government of over $3.5 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S., NET .«

I

-20

-20

-30

-30

-40

-40
1971

1979

1972

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U. S. assets abroad, net
[incre ase/eapitsil outflow (-)]

Period
Total

1972
1973. _
1974__
1975_.
1976
1977
1978

- 14, 497
-4
-22, 874
158
_ -34, 745 -1,467
-39, 703 -849
-51,269 -2, 558
-35, 793 -375
732
-60,957

1977: III _ _ - -6,625
IV
-15,213
1978: I
__
II
IEL__
IV.—

1979:1*
II v

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 2

-15, 188
-5,466
-10,049
-30, 254

Other
U.S.
U.S.
Govern- private2
assets
ment
assets

-1,568
2,644
366
-3,474
-4, 214
3,693
-4, 656

Fore ign assets in the U. S., net
[incif'ease/capii ;al inflow (-HP
Foreigii official
ass ets
Total

-12,925 21, 461
-20, 388 18, 388
-33, 643 34, 241
35, 380 15, 420
-44, 498 36, 399
-31,725 50, 823
-57, 033 63, 713

Total

Allocations
Total
of
special (sum of
the
drawing
items
rights
(SDR) with sign
reversed)

Of
__,1_i _1_ «
win en :
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

U.S.
official
reserve
assets,
net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

10, 475
6,026
10, 546
6,777
17, 573
36, 656
33, 758

10, 293
5,090
10, 244
5,259
13, 066
35, 416
31, 004

10, 986
12, 362
23, 696
8,643
18, 826
14, 167
29, 956

112 -1,001 -5,736 14, 236 8,266
-43
-746 — 14, 424 19, 991 15, 179

7,890
15, 101

5,970
4,812

-4, 703 -2, 275
1,321
517

18, 988
19, 312

187 - 1, 009 -14,366 18, 175 15, 618 14, 895
941 -5,265 -5, 129
248 -1,263
4,451
115 - 1, 390 -8,774 15, 358 4,641
4,519
182
-994 -29,442 29, 239 18, 764 16, 719

2,557
6, 206
10, 717
10, 475

901
3,947
7,950
517
-2, 082 -2, 716
1,301
1,328

19, 192
18, 864
18, 850
18, 650

-6, 158 -3,589 -1,096
343

-1,473 4,343 — 8,490 -8, 508 12, 832
-10, 125

1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDE), convertible currencies, and
the2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF.
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Assets of Other
foreign foreign
official
assets
reserve
agencies

Stati stical
discre pancy

710 -1,930
-2, 655
-1,609
5,944
10, 265
-937
11, 139

1, 139

519

13, 151
14, 378
15, 883
16, 226
18, 747
19, 312
18, 650

999

21, 658
21, 212

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product.
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries.
Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy

.

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock
Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

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FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices-—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

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