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oisr congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
AUGUST 1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the
by the Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff
Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Economist
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled., That the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one
copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the
House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949-
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the
use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint
committee.
Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic
facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders,
labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of
Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome.
11
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter of Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours,
y / *
«/<*Wv^
7 v\ (n^s^~^~~ -Chairman.
/• " I
Vice Chairman.
U
111
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments.
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
iv
30
31
32
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget total decreased less than 3 percent from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949,
according to preliminary estimates. A shift from accumulation to liquidation of inventories accounted
for most of the 19 percent drop in business outlays. Government expenditures increased about 9
percent, chiefly as result of transfer payments.
1949
1st
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)" 7
Quarter
excess OF
*
TOTAL
EXPENDITURES { - ) , RECEIPTS ( -f )
( G r o s s National Product )
2 6 2 5
)
CONSUMERS
Transfer poyment,^
;i;;jiji!i;i:;:;:|:;:!:|:;:i:;:i:;:i:i:!i!i;i;i;iii;i;i;iii:i;i;i;ii ;i;!|!!;i;!!i;ii!i|j!0
T
$.
::ij:!!;l;::i;!;:;ii;;:;!::#;*;: : :
. .o
=:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:. i:;. ;;i. i;:;;;;;::!:;;;;i;;>::;!-;:i:;:;:i:i:i:;:;:;:|:;:;:;:i:;:i:;:;:;l 9 5
:.:.'.::.:--i:i--.::;:.::.::|;.:i;;;:.:.:;.:.:i;.:;i:.:;i;.:.:.::.:,:.::.::i::-:.::.::.::.::;:.::
~~
+
1
-*
™~ CONSUMER
}
SAVING
•TT.9
BUSINESS
27 s
'
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
41 9
'
INTERNATIONAL
1 EXCESS OF
1 RECEIPTS
f"
jo,
GOVERNMENT
(Federal, state and local)
3,
| CASH
SURPLUS
57.5
56.7
?,
1949, 2nd
TOTAL
Quarter
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)
( G r o s s National Product)
?OOCXXX^OO\X?OOOQO&
CONSUMERS
T
f
Transfer
2J
»
payments^
I
l
:::::::::
::i:: : : : : : : : : |
ii|i|||i;;;|;nNCpMEll|
^i:i:::-':i:^:x:i:^:i^i^!^i:i:::;^::i:;:;:^:^:i^
25
, Q dl9
7
•.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'•'.'•\
!-!:;:;:;:.:::::(
GON~
.Illiiliiiliiilii SUMER
-z
^;-»;i-;;;-i.-;.-il
SAVING
1T>?r
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT
( Federal, state and local)
j
'f, 6 " '
a-
CASH
DEFICIT
^-Transfer payments^
j
I/
1
2j
^TRANSFER
'
PA
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1949 ,
^
DJUS
E 1 CLUDED
APPENDIX
A.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
;
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices rose slightly in June reflecting a seasonal increase in food prices which more than offset
continued declines in apparel and housefurnishings. Rents continued their upward creep.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
200
_
1941
1940
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1948
1947
,20
1949
SOURCE-' DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1935-39-100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average _
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
_ _
1948: June
July
. _ _ _ _ _
August
September.
October
November...
December
1949: January _
_ _
February
March__ _ _
_
_ _ _
April
May—
_ _ _ _
_ _
j _
June
_ ..
All items
99. 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125 5
128. 4
139 3
159. 2
171. 2
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171. 4
170. 9
169. 0
169. 5
169. 7
169. 2
169. 6
Food
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6
215. 2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
204. 8
199. 7
201. 6
202. 8
202. 4
204. 3
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities,
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198.0
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7
201. 0
201. 6
201. 4
200. 4
196. 5
195. 1
193. 9
192. 5
191. 3
I'.K). ;*
Rent
104. 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108.0
108. 2
108.3
108. 6
111.2
117. 4
117. 0
117.3
117. 7
118. 5
118. 7
118. 8
119. 5
119.7
119. 9
120. 1
120. 3
120.4
.1 20. 6
Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
House furnishings
99.0
99. 7
102. 2
105.4
107.7
109. 8
110.3
112. 4
121. 1
133. 9
132. 6
134. 8
136. 8
137. 3
137. 8
137. 9
137. 8
138. 2
138. 8
138. 9
137.4
135. 4
1 35. 6
101. 3
100. 5
107. 3
122. 2
125. 6
136. 4
145. 8
159.2
184.4
195.8
194.8
195. 9
196. 3
198. 1
198.8
198. 7
198.6
196. 5
195. 6
193. 8
191. 9
189. 5
1 87. 3
Miscellaneous
100. 7
101. 1
104.0
110. 9
115. 8
121. 3
124. 1
128. 8
139.9
149.9
147. 5
150. 8
152.4
152. 7
153. 7
153. 9
154. 0
154. 1
154. 1
154.4
154. 6
154. 5
1 54. 2
WHOLESALE PRICES
Farm products and food prices rose during the first three weeks of July but ended the month at about
the same level that prevailed at the end of June.
PERCENT OF 1926 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OF
LABOR.
[1926=100]
Period
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
_ __
1946 monthly average
_ -~
June
-1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average „ _
.
1948" June
July
- -August
September
- October
- - November
December
_
1949' January
February
March
April
_ - jjVlav
~
June l
-July
Week ended:
julv 5
_
. _ _ _
"12
- 19
_
--26
87.3
98.8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 1
166. 4
168.8
169. 8
168.9
165.4
164.0
162. 4
160. 6
158. 1
- 158. 4
156.9
155. 7
154. 4
] 53. 8
82.4
105. 9
148.9
140. 1
181. 2
188.3
196.0
195.2
191.5
189.9
183.5
180.8
177.3
172.5
168.3
171.5
170.5
171. 2
168. 5
167. 2
82.7
99. 6
130. 7
112.9
168. 7
179. 1
181. 4
188.3
189.8
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
170.2
165.8
161.5
162. 9
162.9
163.8
162.4
162. 2
Other than
farm products and foods
89.0
95. 5
109. 5
105.6
135.2
151. 0
149.9
151.4
153. 3
153.6
153.4
153.6
153. 1
152.9
151. 8
150.7
148.9
146.8
145.5
145. 1
152. 7
154. 2
154. 3
152. 8
152. 6
165. 6
168. 5
168.4
164. 3
164, 3
161. 3
164. 2
164.2
161. 2
160. 6
145.2
145. 1
144. 9
All commodities
Farm products
Foods
144. 5
145. 1
Aug. 2
1
Estimate based on change in weekly index.
^TOTE —The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
The gradual decline in the average level of farm prices, and in the farm parity ratio, continued from June to July.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
PRICES RECEIVED
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
200
PARITY RATIO*
I
1939 40
I
41
I
42
I
43
44
I
45
I
46
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
I
47
J F M A M J
48
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
1947
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J A
S 0
N D
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio *
received l farmers
ing interesta
by farmers
and taxes)
Period
1939 monthly average _ _
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1 944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1 946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
N
1948
-
___
.
_
_
.
- -_ - _
1
August 1909-July
2
1910-14= 100.
3
.._
„
124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
295
301
293
290
277
271
268
251
251
251
250
249
247
247
77
94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115
118
120
117
116
111
109
108
268
258
261
260
256
252
249
248
245
246
246
245
245
244
108
105
106
106
104
103
102
1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices in July rose sharply, wiping out most of the decline since January.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 A V E R A G E
175
WEEKLY AVERAGE
RAILROADS
/'\.
1 1 1
1 1 1 1 _]
1 II i i i I I
A S
UTILITIES
ii i i i
ii i l l
M t
J F M A M J
193940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
.••"
V
O N
J F
J A
M A M
1947
1 1
1 1 1
I
t
S O N
1949
1948
SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1
Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942 __
1946
1948
1948: June
July
August
September
October
November _
December
1949: January
February
March .
April
May
._
June
July
Week ended:
July 6
13
20 _ _
27
Aug. 3 2
_ _
_
Industrials
Railroads
Utilities
94 2
69. 4
139 9
124. 4
135. 1
131. 9
127. 1
125. 7
127. 8
120. 4
119 4
121 0
117. 2
118 0
118 5
117. 7
112. 0
117. 8
94 8
71. 3
143 4
130. 6
142. 7
138. 9
133. 5
131. 7
134. 3
126. 4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
123. 7
124. 2
123. 4
117. 0
123. 4
74. 7
66. 1
143. 0
114. 7
125. 6
124. 7
119. 7
120.4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
99.6
97. 4
97. 1
95. 8
88. 4
90. 6
98. 6
61. 3
120. 2
96. 2
100. 6
99.5
97. 3
97.3
97. 4
94. 2
92. 9
94. 2
94.4
95. 3
96. 1
95. 3
93. 0
95. 4
115 4
117. 2
118 8
119. 6
120. 3
121. 0
123. 2
125. 1
125. 9
126. 6
88. 7
90.3
91. 5
92.0
91. 7
94. 5
94. 8
95. 7
96.4
97. 3
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31
utilities.
2
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
94851--49Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
i
l
l
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Unemployment rose moderately in July to 4.1 million. Total employment, however, also increased slightly.
MILLIONS
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
OF PERSONS
70
70
UNEMPLOYMENT
50
30
NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT
J
UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED SCALE
1939
1944
1946
MONTHLY
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT
1947
1948
AVERAGE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
OF COMMERCE.
Period
1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average___
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average___
1948: June .
July
August-September
October
Novem ber
December
1949* January
Februarv
March
April
May _
__ _
June
_
Julv
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Civilian employment 1
Total labor
force, including
In nonIn agriarmed
agricultural
Total
culture
forces
industries
55, 600
65, 890
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
64, 740
65,135
64,511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
64, 866
65, 278
45, 750
53, 960
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
61,296
61,615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
57, 414
57, 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59, 619
59, 720
36, 140
45, 010
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
51,899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51,506
51, 932
52, 059
50, 651
50, 174
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49, 924
50. 073
9,610
8,950
8, 320
8, 266
7,973
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375
6,763
6, 993
7,393
7,820
8,974
9, 696
9,647
Armed
forces
370
11, 260
3,300
1,440
1,307
1,261
1,293
1,325
1,366
1,391
1,414
1,453
1,468
1, 508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1,468
1,463
Unemployment
9,480
670
2,270
2, 142
2,064
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
2,664
3, 221
3, 167
3,016
3,289
3, 778
4,095
1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation,
illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
ADVISERS
I 0
EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
After eight months of declines, employment in nondurable manufacturing increased about 50,000 in June.
Construction employment continued to rise, but less than during the same period a year ago.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
12
12
TRANSPORTATION AND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
1939
SOURCE:
I94Q
|94|
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Department of Labor
[Thousands of wage and salary workers l]
Durable
manufacturing
Period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
average. _
average
average
average
average
1948: Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December..
1949: Januarv
Februarv
March2
April 2 _ „ _
May
June 2 ,
_
__ „__
__ _ _ «
_
_
_ __
_
__
_
_
Nondurable
manufacturing
4,357
10, 297
7, 180
8,055
8,214
5, 720
7,084
7, 335
7, 846
8,063
8, 114
8, 122
8, 165
8, 188
8,294
8,318
8,303
8,222
7, 778
7, 993
8,007
8,253
8, 403
8, 279
8, 158
8,061
8,005
7,898
7,807
7,656
7,451
7,430
7,885
7, 879
7,818
7,676
7, 579
7,631
Trade
Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
public
service
State, local)
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
4, 610
5, 187
6 016
6,278
6, 400
3, 987
6,049
5 607
5, 449
5, 658
2, 912
3, 619
4,023
4, 060
4,065
1, 150
1, 567
1, 661
1,921
2,060
845
917
852
911
925
617
670
646
660
733
889
034
381
6, 454
6, 389
6, 399
6,383
6, 379
6, 364
6, 364
6, 346
5, 624
.5, 607
5, 604
5, 650
5, 801
.5, 789
5, 714
5, 994
4,042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4,092
4, 091
4,066
4,066
2, 052
2, 173
2,219
2, 253
2,239
2, 206
2, 162
2,079
935
950
922
952
948
941
938
939
9 625
9, 513
9 525
9,683
9 535
9, 520
6, 265
6,272
6, 314
6, 362
6, 405
6,394
.5,
5,
5,
.5,
5,
5,
3,978
3, 956
3, 912
3,929
3, 952
3,984
1, 906
1,820
1, 841
1,941
2,016
2,081
925
922
914
919
908
913
6, 705
7, 322
8 820
9, 450
9, 746
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
10,
10,
761
759
762
773
820
783
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay duringjuhe pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Digitizedwhich
for 2FRASER
Preliminary estimate.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Srmtv».ADfiimrt.mfint
Federal Reserve
Bank
of St. Louis nf Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
Average weekly hours of work in manufacturing rose in May and again in June, according to preliminary data. Most
nonmanufacturing industries reported little change in May.
HOUF S PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
RETAIL TRADE
50
50
45
45
40
/\
J
^**^-W^—«-
—
35
30
25
25
.
0
40
42
44
46
h i i i i
48
-^
35
30
"777777777
_-.__X^\_
-^
40
•^^
i Mii!
i i i i i!M i i i
1947
1948
0
1949
__
1
1
40
1
1
42
_1
1
44
1
1
46
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
1
48
-
______
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1
1947
TrrrrTTThTTTh , , , ,
1948
1949
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
50
50
.
45
45
/X.
/ ^
J
40
35
lA
\l
!
30
25
0
r^
fc
3
40
yw
i i i i i i i i i
40
42
44
46
1 1 1 M
48
1 1 1 1 1 1
25
1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 II
1947
s~
V
^ —v/j^/-
30
,
'
y
/^~
35
1948
0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 11
1949
,,,,
40
42
1 1 11< 1 11 1 1 11 11< 11 1 11 1 11
44
46
48
1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
LllLl
1948
All manufacturing
industries
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average .
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average _ _
1948' M a y
_
__
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949' January
February
__
March2
April 2
May
June 2
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
8
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
'
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Hours per week, selected industries]
1
2
3
1
1949
- „
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
-__
Retail trade
37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39. 8
40. 1
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
40. 0
39. 5
39. 3
39. 0
38. 3
38. 5
38. 9
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
43. 0
42. 5
40. 3
40. 3
40. 5
40. 2
40. 1
39. 9
40. 3
40. 8
41. 0
40. 2
39. 7
39. 5
40. 2
40. 0
40. 0
39. 9
40. 1
40. 1
Bituminous
coal mining
27. 1
31. 1
43.4
42. 3
41.6
40. 6
38.0
40.3
39.9
3
34.2
39.4
37.9
38. 6
37. 1
38. 5
39. 3
38.0
36. 1
36.4
37. 2
Building
construction
1
32.6
34.8
39.6
39.0
38. 1
37. 6
37.3
37.0
37. 9
37.8
37.8
37.6
37.3
36. 4
37.8
37.0
36. 5
36. 3
37.4
37.4
WORK STOPPAGES
The week of "stabilizing inactivity" in coal mining was an important factor in the increase in mandays of idleness caused by work stoppages in June.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
15
15
1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 194? 1948
M A M J J A S O
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR.
[Thousands]
Number of stoppages
Pferiod
1939
1941
i
1942
1943 _
_j _
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 _
_ .
1948: May _ •
June
'
Julv
Au§usti_
Sejl temfeer
October
November
December
1949: Jaiiiiarv *_l _ ...
February
March l
April i
Mav *
June 1
1
Beginning
iii
period
2,613
4,288
2,968
3,752
4,956
4,750
4,985
3, 693
3, 419
339
349
394
355
299
256
216
144
225
225
275
400
450
375
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor,
In effect
during
month
553
565
614
603
553
468
388
283
400
350
400
500
600
550
Workers involved in
stoppages
Beginning
* in
period
1, 171
2.363
' 840
1,981
2, 116
3,467
4,600
2, 170
1, 960
168
169
218
143
158
110
111
40
70
80
fiOO
175
250
575
In effect
during
month
344
243
307
232
267
194
189
93
110
120
540
225
320
660
Man-days idle during
period
Monthly
average
1, 484
1,921
349
1,125
727
3,169
9,667
2,883
2,842
4, 080
2,220
2, 670
2, 100
2, 540
2, 060
1,910
713
800
650
3, 600
1, 800
3,200
4,600
Percent of
estimated
working time
0. 28
.32
.05
. 15
.09
.47
1.43
.41
.37
.57
.28
.36
.26
.33
.27
.26
.09
. 11
. 10
.46
.25
.45
.61
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
The industrial production index dropped 5 points in June for the 4th consecutive month and still further in
July, according to preliminary estimates. Part of the July decline was due to the spreading practice of plantwide vacations, especially in nondurables. The seasonal adjustment factor has not been revised to take account
of this.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index
250 -
?50
200
?00
150
150
100 -
MANUFACTURES
D U R A B L E GOODS&
50
1948
1949
SOURCE:BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL
OP
ECONOMIC
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total=100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _ _ _
1948 monthly average
1948: June_ .
Julv
August
September _
October
November
December
1949: January
Februarv
MarchApril 1
May
June l
July !
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
ble goods
goods
100
239
203
170
187
192
192
186
191
192
195
195
192
191
189
184
179
174
169
162
100
258
214
177
194
198
198
192
197
199
202
201
199
198
196
193
184
179
175
168
'
100
360
274
192
220
225
222
219
223
225
231
229
231
227
226
223
212
201
194
185
100
176
166
165
172
177
179
169
177
178
179
178
173
175
173
168
162
161
161
154
100
132
137
134
149
155
159
153
159
156
158
161
156
149
149
136
148
145
134
125
Manufactures
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
84
83
84
85
87
87
87
86
86
84
81
76
74
70
Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
47
83
78
77
81
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
81
82
81
79
76
75
75
72
15
20
21
21
23
24
24
23
24
24
24
25
24
23
23
21
23
22
20
19
1
Preliminary estimate. Part of the July decline, especially in nondurables was due to the spreading practice
of plant-wide vacations. The seasonal adjustment factor has not been revised to take account of this.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10
ADVISERS
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of ferrous and nonferrous metals continued their steep decline in June. Output of most
machinery industries was curtailed futher. Production of lumber and p r o d u c t s was maintained at
about the same level that has prevailed since the first of the year.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
LUMBER AND
IRON AND STEEL
250
SEASONALLY
MONTHLY AVERAGE
250
ADJUSTED
200
PRODUCTS
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
200
100 I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
1947
40 42 44- 46 48
1948
40 42 44 46 48
1949
MACHINERY
350
1947
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
SEASONALLY
MONTHLY AVERAGE
ADJUSTED
300
200
\XI
150
100 i i i t i i i i i i I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 h i i 1 1 I 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 i
40 42 44 46 48
1947
1948
40 42 44 46 48
1949
1947
1948
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
1949
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel
Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average.
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949* January
February
MarchApril1 .
May
June *__
1
__ _ _ _
__
_
_
__
_ _ _
_ _ _ __ _ _ _.
_
_
Nonferrous
metals and
products
Lumber and
products
Machinery
100
208
183
150
195
208
100
129
109
131
143
145
100
443
343
240
276
277
100
267
204
157
187
193
208
208
201
207
214
221
224
223
142
140
142
148
143
147
145
143
273
277
269
271
273
277
276
277
196
194
185
186
192
192
187
184
228
232
233
219
204
177
129
123
129
126
126
124
268
262
252
240
232
226
183
186
184
167
145
135
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of textiles increased somewhat in June from the low point reached in May. Food processing
rose slightly. Activity at petroleum refineries and chemical plants declined.
PERCE MT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300
300
200
200
1 00
0
j—
"^^
42
44
46
~v
100
t i i i i i i i j,
40
'—v-.
MM!
I M M 11 M M
48
1947
MANUFACTURED
1948
INN
0
y
"^
i i i i i i i i i
40
1949
v _^-—i—""^
A/
42
44
46
1947
CHEMICAL
FOOD PRODUCTS
M M I 1 1 1 M 1
I I 1 1 1 1 II 1 I I
48
MONTHLY
PRODUCTS
s
MONTHLY A
AVERAGE f\
AVERAGE
300
300
*^~**» ~"
^
* • • • •
••
— ** «*•
1
40
1
i
42
"^
"
/
100
^
|
•
/
200
200
0
1949
400
400
1 00
1 1 M I 1 11 1 1 1
1948
1
1
44
I
1
46
1
..,,. (HIM
48
M 1 1 1 1 1 M
1947
M
M
1 M
1948
1 M
1 1 1
1949
0
J
1
40
1
1
42
1
1
44
I I I
46
48
1 M 1 11 11 M 1
1947
1 1 1M 11 M 1 i
1 II i 1 1 II 1 U
1948
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: May
June
July_.
_
August- _
September
October _ _ _ _ _ _
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May 11
June
_ _. _
i.
.
..
._
__
_ _
12
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
177
174
154
166
168
167
164
156
220
220
217
221
207
217
227
231
159
163
160
156
163
161
159
158
249
256
251
259
257
255
257
257
160
157
142
129
123
126
228
221
213
209
207
199
160
162
162
162
162
164
257
250
245
237
234
231
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Petroleum
and coal
products
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel production dropped further during the early part of July and then made some recovery. Electric power
continued above rates of a year ago. Bituminous coal mining reflected the shortened work week. Output of
cars and trucks reached an all time weekly peak during the last of July.
MILLIONS OF TONS
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS
3
STEEL
ELECTRIC POWER
1949
1949.
"1947
/1947
I
!
M
l
J
J
'
J
A
I
S
O
I
N
D
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
B
THOUSANDS
3.0
A
SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.
Steel
(thousands of
net tons)
Period
Weekly average:
1947
1948 Week ended:
1948: July 3
10
17
24
31
Aug. 7
14__
1949: July 2
9
16
23
30
Au°" 6
13
_
__
_ _-_
_
_ _ _ _ _
__
_
_
__
_
Bituminous
Electric power,
coal
by utilities
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) l
S
0
N
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Cars and
trucks
(number)
1,637
1, 700
4, 821
5, 300
2,008
1,906
90, 860
100, 670
1,716
1, 628
1, 637
1, 678
1,678
1, 697
1, 710
5, 166
4,760
5, 197
5,342
5, 352
5, 319
5,318
613
1,968
2,046
2, 056
2,094
2,029
2,094
108, 052
93, 691
115,794
113, 275
111,890
107, 219
107, 174
1, 473
1, 128
1, 434
1,444
1, 502
1, 499
1, 517
5,410
4, 982
5,342
5,462
5,518
218
945
1, 107
1, 166
1,227
138,
111,
149,
153,
135,
802
793
380
090
373
1
Daily average for week.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
D
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Total new construction in July increased more than 9 !/2 percent over June. Private construction rose
somewhat more and public somewhat less than seasonally.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
r-
1,000
1
1
i
1,000
i
ii!
1939
J
1942 1944 1946 1947 1948
*INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
F
M
A
M
1948
J
J
A
S
O
N
1949
CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES: D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E A N D D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthlv average
1948 monthly average
1948- May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March _
April
May 2
- .
June 2 _
Julv
14
1
2
_ _
_
_ __ _
526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1,565
1,572
1,754
1,874
1,934
1, 901
1,814
1, 646
1,447
1,293
1, 172
1,267
1, 378
1,585
1, 745
1,913
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
688
932
1, 214
1, 222
1, 348
1,423
1,454
1,427
1, 355
1, 256
1, 129
1,002
905
951
997
1, 117
1,239
1,371
Includes public residential construction,
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
176
110
45
265
438
602
625
682
707
720
707
670
615
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
700
Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
597
666
716
734
720
685
641
582
527
505
531
552
587
639
671
Federal,
State, and
local i
208
867
193
184
262
351
350
406
451
480
474
459
390
318
291
267
316
381
468
506
542
D
NEW HOUSING STARTS
June starts at 100,000 exceeded the figure for the preceding year. The indications are .that the July figure
will at least equal and may again exceed that for last year.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS
50
25
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
New nonfarm units started
Month
1947
January
February
March
April
_
_
j-v-idj
Mav
June _July
August
September
October
November
December
_
- _ _ _
_ -
Total
Monthly average
1
-
--
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
-
1948
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900
849, 000
931, 300
70, 750
77, 600
1949
50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
1
86, 000
1
95, 000
1
100, 000
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Estimated nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in 2nd quarter of 1949 showed, for
the first time in the postwar period, no gain over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Anticipated
expenditures in 3rd quarter of this year run lower, with electric and gas utilities the only field to show a
continued gain.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
20
15
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
^UTILITIES
10
10
1939
*
1945
1941
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
VA ft IAT I ON.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC flOVTSERS
I Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period
Total *
Manufacturing
Mining
Transportation
Railroad
Other
Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2
1939
1,850
280
480
280
380
1,930
5,200
1941.
2 S 490
710
560
340
680
8, 190
3,400
1945
1,480
320
630
550
440
3,210
6,630
1947. .._
_
._
4, 430
1,900
910
800
7,460
690
16, 180
5,390
1948
700
2,680
1,320
800
8,340
19, 230
1947: First quarter
3,600
1,320
720
600
12, 640
640
5,800
Second quarter
4, 120
1,800
920
640
880
15, 760
7,400
Third quarter
4,640
2,000
800
920
7,480
720
16, 560
Fourth quarter
2,480
5,360
760
1,200
840
9, 160
19, 760
1948: First quarter
4, 960
2,000
720
1,080
720
16, 680
7,200
Second quarter
2,560
5,360
1, 240
760
800
] 9, 280
8,560
Third quarter
_.
5,440
2, 760
1,320
8,360
19, 320
680
800
Fourth quarter
5,760
3,400
680
1,640
9,280
880
21, 640
1949: First quarter _3
2,720
5,040
520
760
1, 440
7,400
17, 840
5,200
3,240
560
Second quarter4
800
1, 640
7, 840
19, 280
Third quarter _ _
3. 320
5, 120
680
1, 240
760
7,360
18, 520
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Commercial and miscellaneous include trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Preliminary
estimates of actual expenditures.
4
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
16
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
Total proceeds from new corporate security issues more than doubled in the 2nd quarter reflecting a rise in
both fixed and working capital financing.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3. O
3.0
QUARTERLY A V E R A G E
—
2.0
H
.5
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER
SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948
quarterly average - quarterly average
quarterly average _
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarterThird quarter
Fourth quarter
_
.
1949: First quarter,. „
Second quarter 2 _
1
2
_
_ __
_
__
Plant and
equipment
Working
capital
Retirement
of debt and
stock l
529
287
1,475
1,689
1,617
1,604
81
77
270
820
1, 148
1, 392
43
35
159
529
852
1,035
39
42
111
291
296
357
448
210
1,206
869
469
212
1, 374
2, 311
884
2,000
692
1,654
192
347
490
310
1, 614
1,663
1, 267
1, 873
1,400
1,353
1,045
1, 767
845
1,080
764
1,451
555
274
281
316
214
309
221
105
1,056
2,311
850
1, 968
699
1,615
152
353
206
343
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Divergent trends marked inventories and sales in June. Manufacturing and wholesale inventories dropped
while sales rose moderately, on the other hand both retail sales and inventories advanced.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
B I L L O N S OF DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
RETAIL
20
20
INVEr^ TC)RIES
V
/*
1 0
X ^'
\pt*^....^"''
0
I 1
!
40
42
1
1
!
44
>L
_5
V
S*-?
ly-**^
."*
1 0
^p-*S2*
\
,x
^i
... '"'^y\i \L
*" "^
*• — •• -
•"
:7~
INVEP4T' )RIES
1
1 1
46
i 1i I i 1 l l i I l
48
, , M 1 1 , 1 1 II
1947
1948
0
1949
I i 1 i 1 1 1 1 I
40
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
42
44
46
1 1 1 ! 1 I1 ( 1 1 1
1 I1 1 1 11 I I 1 1
1 l If 1 1 1 1 ! ! i
1947
1948
1949
48
PERCE NT OF 1935-1939 A V E R A G E
MANUFACTURING
DEPARTMENT STORES
40
400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
INVEf JT DRIES
Ul
30
\L :s,
300
1
s:
1 0
0
f'u
s/
/
/
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 \
40
42
44
46
....V.
r
/ /IISIVEr' TC)RIES
200
J/J
W,
1 00
i l i ii 1 l 1 i ti
48
II ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
0
Inventories
3
1
1
1 1
42
l
44
1
46
Sales
4
1 1
48
1 i 1 i 1 i 1 ! 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 | | |
1948
1947
Inventories
3
Manufacturing *
Sales
4
Inventories
3
1
2
.
_ _
2,505
3, 650
4,330
4,777
6, 138
7, 304
7,867
7,766
7,796
8, 161
8,286
8,376
8,242
8, 196
7, 163
6,802
7,489
6, 962
7,077
7, 086
1949
Sales
Department stores
4
5,502
7,620
7,350
7, 502
11, 049
12, 953
14, 556
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 556
14, 092
13,939
14, 237
14, 057
13, 766
13, 806
3,504
4, 624
5,310
6,387
8,399
9, 860
10, 784
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11,062
10, 615
10, 588
10, 620
10, 767
10, 726
10, 737
Inventories
Sales
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted 6
Millions of dollars
3,200
4, 151
3,577
4,216
5,823
7, 545
8,315
7,953
7,930
8, 100
8,243
8,400
8, 507
8,315
8,527
8,567
8,445
8, 186
7,912
7, 827
l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
R E S E R V E SYSTEM
Retail 2
Wholesale *
Period
i
40
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL
1939
1941
__
_ ___
1943
1945
__
1946
1947
_ _
1948
1948: June
_
July
August
September
October
.
November
December .
1949" January
Febrn ary
March6
_
A.pril 6
May
. _
June 6 _ _ _
_ _ _ _
\^>
.«**
*•.
/ •"
J / A •^v^L ES
v ^
_e^
Wi/ \
.»•••
>"
20
_
</'
11, 516
17, 024
19, 897
17, 924
23, 435
28, 020
31, 713
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31, 225
31, 713
32, 062
32, 070
31, 793
31, 266
30, 902
30, 400
5, 112
8, 172
12, 603
12, 371
12, 020
15, 671
17, 587
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
17,980
18, 130
16, 691
16, 424
18, 107
16, 763
16, 303
16, 500
102
131
155
166
213
255
291
285
285
285
290
290
296
291
278
276
283
280
273
265
106
133
168
207
264
286
302
308
311
309
309
308
289
305
295
281
277
294
292
284
5
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
Book value, end of period.
Monthly average for year and total
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
6
Preliminary estimate.
for month.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3
4
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AMD IMPORTS
The export surplus increased in June as exports rose 2/2 percent and imports dropped at about
the same rate.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600
1600
MONTHLY AVERAGES
-
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
-
1,000
1,000
800
800
600
- 600
400
400
200
- 200
1936-38
1943
1946 1947 1948
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
[Millions of dollars]
Period
Exports
1
Imports *
Excess of
exports
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
247
1, 080
877
849
1,278
1, 051
207
282
346
410
478
594
40
798
531
439
801
457
1948: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1, 102
1, 015
1,019
990
926
1,021
820
1, 285
554
625
563
606
560
600
554
720
548
390
456
384
366
421
266
565
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
I, 094
1, 032
1, 159
1, 148
1,077
1, 104
590
568
632
534
539
526
504
464
527
614
538
578
1
1
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
NATIONAL INCOME
The revised series on national income shows a $12.6 billion^drop, or 5 percent, from the peak in 4th quarter 1948 to
2nd quarter 1949. Corporate profits, including the inventory valuation adjustment, accounted for one-half of the
decline while the compensation of employees accounted forjabout one-fourth.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION :
ADJUSTMENT-'
200
(COMPENSATION OF;
iEMPLOYEES;
i i
1939
1944
1947
1948
1949
3
2
4
3
4
1948
1947
1949
1950
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted).
[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income
Period
1939
1944
1946.
1947
1948 _ .
_
72. 5
183. 8
179. 6
201.7
226. 2
_ > _ _ _ _ _
__ .
Compensation of
employees
47.8
121. 2
117.0
127. 6
140.3
Proprietors'
and rental Net interest
income
14. 7
35. 5
41. 3
45. 1
49. 5
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Profits
before
taxes
Total
5.8
24. 0
18. 3
25. 6
32. 6
4. 2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
3.8
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6.5
24. 3
23.6
31. 6
34. 8
-0. 7
-.3
-5.3
-6. 0
-2.2
33.0
35.0
36. 6
34. 5
— 4. 5
-2.0
-3. 3
— 1. 2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 1 2
Second quarter
..
2
215. 1
224. 9
230.4
234. 3
135. 1
137. 7
143. 3
144. 9
48. 0
50. 4
49. 9
49. 7
3. 6
3. 7
3. 9
4. 1
225. 3
222.2
142. 5
141.7
47. 8
46.7
4. 2
4. 3
28. 5
33. 0
33. 3
35. 7
2
30. 8
29.5
2
28. 4
24.8
2
+2.3
+ 4.7
1
2
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators.
July 1949, for details of the revisions.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
20
See Survey of Current Business,
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits reached their peak rate in 3rd quarter of 1948, and have declined steadily since then, according
to revised estimates. In 2nd quarter of 1949, they were $24.8 billion (annual rate), or $11.8 billion below the
peak. Change in replacement costs of inventories was equivalent to two-thirds of the drop.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
4 O
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
':•:'•:DIVIDEND PAYMENTS xXyx'-vX:
y NO JSTR_IBU TE D ...PR Of ITS jl||l!ji jj
SOURCE; D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E (EXCEPT AS NOTED)
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
_
. . _ _
.
.
__
_-_
Corporate
tax
liability
9.8
6.5
24. 3
23.6
31.6
34.8
1.4
1.5
13. 5
9.6
12. 5
13. 6
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10. 8
13.9
19. 1
21.2
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4. 7
5.8
7.0
7.9
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 1
13.2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter,
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter
_ _ _. _ _ ».
_ _
_ _
1949 : First quarter l l
Second quarter
33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5
12.8
13. 7
14. 4
13. 6
20.2
21.3
22.2
20.9
7. 6
7. 7
7.9
8.3
12.6
13. 6
14.3
12. 6
28. 4
24.8
11.2
9.7
17.3
15. 1
8.4
8.5
8.9
6.6
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 20 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See
Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions.
iA^^-^,1
,-.,,11
-ns-vi-
-nrt^Qcjoo-r-ilxr orlH
+r\ f r k f n l a K A O Q I I S A f\f
rOlinniTlff.
PERSONAL INCOME
According to revised estimates, personal income, between February and June, has shown little major change.
In June, it Was 2 percent^belowjhe December 1948 peak level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS D O L L A R S
250
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ANNUAL TOTALS
TOTAL
200
\ - - » \ " % r x % v v v . %
::x;::: PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL !NCOME";
JLJL
,939
1944
1947
1948
1949
I
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
1947
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
U
F
1949
1948
! I I I
M
A
M
J
1950
*TERMINAL LEAVE 80ND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
_
.
-
72. 6
165. 9
176. 9
193. 5
211. 9
- ._-
Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and other
and rental
labor income
income
Dividends
and personal
interest
14. 7
35.5
41. 2
45. 1
49.5
9.2
10. 6
13.2
14. 8
16.2
45. 7
116.2
111.0
122.0
135. 1
Transfer
payments
3.0
3.6
11.4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
Mav_
_
June
Julv
August
September. __ _
October
_ _ _
November
December
1949: January
February
March.
_
April
_
May _
June -L
1948:
1
22
.
_ -
_ _
_ _ __
209. 3
213. 4
214. 5
215.4
216. 3
216. 3
216. 6
217.0
215. 7
212. 9
212.4
212. 5
212. 9
213. 5
132. 9
134. 5
136. 6
138.5
139.7
140. 1
139. 5
139. 1
138. 6
137. 1
135.6
136.8
136. 9
136.7
49.3
51. 8
50.8
49. 5
49.4
49.0
49.8
50. 3
49. 0
47. 2
47. 3
46. 3
46.7
47.2
15.9
15. 9
16.0
16. 3
16. 5
16. 8
16.9
16.9
17.0
17. 1
17. 1
17.2
17.3
17.5
11.2
11.2
11. 1
11. 1
10.7
10.4
10.4
10.7
11. 1
11.5
12.4
12.2
12. 0
12. 1
Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See
Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions.
Source: Department of Commerce.
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
According to revised estimates, disposable income dropped moderately from 1st to 2nd quarter while
expenditures rose slightly, thus reducing the rate of saving by $1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
150
1939
1940
I94«
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income *
Period
1939
1940
1941_
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
_
70.2
75.7
92.0
116.2
131. 6
147.0
151. 1
158. 1
172. 0
190.8
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101. 6
111. 6
123. 1
147.8
166. 9
178.8
2.7
3. 7
9.8
25.4
30.0
35.4
28.0
10. 3
5. 1
12. 0
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2
Second quarter
_
_
181.9
189.6
195.2
196.2
195.0
194.2
175.2
178. 7
180. 3
180. 9
177.9
178. 2
6. 7
10. 8
15.0
15. 3
17. 1
16.0
1
2
Income less taxes.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Figures for 1942-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators.
Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
See
PER CAPITA INCOME*
Per capita disposable income fell about 1 percent from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949, as measured in current dollars,
or in terms of real purchasing power.
DOLLARS
1,600
ANNUAL R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D
1,200
I
1939
1940
1941
1942
»943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
3
4
1947
1
I
2
I
3
_L
4
I
1948
S O U R C E : D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E A N D D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R (EXCEPT A S NOTED),
Period
1939 . __
1940
1941.
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
...
__
I
2***
I
3
4
1949
Per capita disposable personal
income *
Current
1948 dollars *
dollars
536
923
574
981
1, 125
691
1,262
867
1,314
_..
970
1,405
1,065
1,082
1,389
1,342
1, 119
1,282
1, 194
1,302
1,302
Consumers'
price index1
1948=100
58. 1
58.5
61. 4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93. 1
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
98. 0
99.6
101.8
100. 7
99.2
99.0
1,273
1948: First quarter _
1,248
1,296
1,301
Second quarter _ _ _ _ _
_
__
_
_
___
Third quarter
1, 306
1, 329
Fourth quarter. _ _
_
1,329
1,320
1949: First quarter.. _4
1,316
1,327
Second Quarter
1, 305
1,318
1
Income less taxes.
2
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
3
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted
index will be found on page 2.
4
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Figures for 1942-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the provisions.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted).
24
2
1950
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER:
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Average hourly earnings in manufacturing increased in June, the first increase this year, according to preliminary
data.
DOLLARS PER HOUR
DOLLARS PER HOUR.
RETAIL TRADE
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
2.00
,50
1948 DOLLARS'"
nl I I I I I I I I Fl JTiTi i I 1 1 1 i i I i i iTTTTi i i i I i i T i ITTTiTTl
40 42 44 46 48
1947
1948
1949
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
40 42 44 46
*
1947
40 42 44 46 48
40 42 44 46 48
1948
1949
cu<
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SOUR
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Bituminous coal mining
Retail trade
Period
Current
dollars
1939
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
monthly average...
monthly average _
monthly average
monthly average „_ _ _ »
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
1948: May
June
July
August
_
September
October
November ......
December
._
pm
1949; January
February _
_ _
March3
April 3
_
May 3 _
June _
__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1948
dollars *
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Building construction *
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 3
0.633
.729
1.019
1.023
1. 084
1. 221
1.327
1.090
1. 187
1.381
1.313
1.230
1.311
1.327
0. 536
,568
,724
.773
.878
.991
1.067
0.923
,925
.981
.992
1.053
1.064
1.067
0. 886
.993
1. 186
1. 240
.401
. 633
. 899
1. 525'
1. 617
1. 607
1. 592
1. 680
1.754
1. 899^
0. 932
1.010
1.319
1.379
1.478
1.681
1.848
1. 604
1.645
1.787
1.770
1.772
1.806
1.848
1.301
1.316
1.332
1.349
1.362
1.366
1.372
1.376
1.306
1. 312
1.312
1.324
1.337
1.347
1.364
1.375
1.064
1.070
1.077
1.080
1.086
1.080
1. 084
1.072
1.068
1.067
1.061
1.060
1.066
1.065
1.078
1.071
.841
.850
.936
.967
.970
.959
. 951
.960
1.848
1. 844
1.907
1. 930
1.933
1. 932
1. 939
1.958
1.815
1.836
1.862
1.874
1.895
1.892
1.906
1.915
1.822
1.830
1.834
1.839
1.860
1.866
1.895
1.913
1. 380
1.377
1.374
1.374
1. 373
1.380
1. 383
1.395
1. 388
1.386
1. 390
1.393
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1. 949
1. 943
1.941
1.932
1.947
1.953
1. 969
1.961
1.950
1. 971
1.918
1.930
1.933
1.934
1. 931
1.922
1.955
1.953
1.952
1.954=
110
104
102
106
114
112
119
113
116
128
1
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= 100.
3
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Preliminary estimate.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
See note 3 to table on page 24.
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
Weekly earnings in most major industries increased in May. Manufacturing industries, reflecting a longer work
week, rose further in June, but were still below the December 1948 peak.
DOLLARS PER W E E K
D O L L A R S PER W E E K
RETAIL T R A D E
1948 D 01_ L A R S * *
/
\^-^
^— -
jf^~*
^""
"•»
^X^
-—*^*^CURREN-r c)OLLARS
i i i 1 1 i i 1 j
1947
40 42 44 46 48
1948
1 1 ' ! 1 i 1 I I ,11
40
42
44
46
48
40
42 44
46
48
1947
! 1 I 1 1 1 1
1948
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 !
1949
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
DOLLARS*
C.^fv
DOLLARS
40
42 44 46 48
t SEE N TE
°
S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
°N
TA8Lt:
-
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Retail trade
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
23. 88
36.44
41.07
21. 17
23. 86
1939 monthly average
30.86
35.73
21. 94
48. 18
29.58
1941 monthly average
_
51.27
36. 02
62.44
26.58
46.08
1944 monthly average
52. 25
36. 34
56.98
44.39
28. 31
1945 monthly average
58.03
39. 03
52.45
43.74
32.55
1946 monthly average
66.86
39.39
52. 90
36. 67
49. 25
1947 monthly average
72.57
39.
98
39.98
53.
15
53. 15
1948 monthly average
74.08
40.00
39.84
52.07
51. 86
1948* May
73.87
40.40
52. 69
52. 85
40. 52
June
.
67. 62
52. 17
40. 58
52. 95
41. 19
July
78. 10
40. 42
41. 19
54. 05
53. 04
August 75.51
39.73
54. 19
40. 48
53. 18
September
76.40
39.76
54. 65
53. 90
40. 32
October
_
73.
52
39.43
39.
67
54.23
54.56
November
75. 79
40.62
40.58
54.96
55.01
December
_ _ _ _ _ _
76.84
41.87
54.62
41. 79
54. 51
1 949 " January
_
74. 31
42. 11
41. 56
54. 12
54. 83
Februarv
68.41
41.90
41.48
54. 13
53. 59
March
_
72.
70
42.
19
52. 62
53. 10
41.81
April3 ^
73. 70
42.
91
52.
86
53.
50
42.
40
May 3
54. 17
53. 68
June _ _ _ . _
-_- __-_
1
Data
prior
to
19-48
not
exactly
comparable
with
later
data.
:
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948 = 100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
3
Preliminary estimates.
Department of Labor.
Digitized forSource:
FRASER
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1948
dollars 2
41. 10
50.26
69.47
67.07
69.58
71.81
72.57
74.38
73. 65
66. 62
76. 64
74.10
75.34
73.08
75.71
76.99
75.29
69. 10
73.36
74. 59
Building construction 1
Current
dollars
30.39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63.30
68. 85
67. 22
69.53
70.47
70.91
71.29
70.59
69.39
72.33
70.88
70.53
69.83
70.33
71.82
1948
dollars 2
52. 31
57.23
70.70
68.97
67.43
67.99
68. 85
67.49
69.32
69.43
69. 59
69.96
69.62
68. 98
72.26
71.02
71.46
70.54
70.97
72. 69
FARM INCOME
Farmers' cash income increased seasonally from May to June, but represented about 10 percent less
income than in June last year, after allowing for the 3 percent lower level of prices paid by
farmers.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
MONTHLY AVERAGE
CURRENT DOLLARS
1939
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) 1
Period
1939 monthly average _
__. _
1941 monthly average.
1942 monthly average __
_ _
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
_
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average-1948: May
June
July
August.
__
September
„ _
October,
November
_
December
1949: January
__
February, ___
March.__ _
_
April4
___ _ „ _
May
__
_ _
June 4 _ _ _ _ _
1
_ _
_
_
_
_ __
724
981
I 340
1 678
1 765
1 857
2 110
2 542
2 609
2 119
2* 437
2 693
2 722
3 132
3 714
3 314
2 740
2 383
I 783
1 973
1 850
1 944
2, 118
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
(millions of
interest and
taxes) 1948 = 1948 dollars) 3
1002
49 8
53 0
60 2
65 1
67 9
69 1
77 5
92 8
100 0
100 4
100 8
100 8
100 8
100 4
100 0
99 2
99 6
99 6
98 4
98 8
98 8
98 4
98. 0
2
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
! 5"*,™ income jn current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
PrAliminarv
_ estimates.
J..-_-_ A __
Source: Department of Agriculture.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis A T»_.I.._.
1 454
1 851
2 226
2 578
2 599
2 687
2 723
2 739
2 609
2 111
2 418
2 672
2 700
3 120
3 714
3 341
2, 751
2 393
1 812
1 997
1 872
1, 976
2. 161
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Nondurable goods purchases continued to fall in the 2nd quarter but at a much slower rate.
(mainly automobiles) and service expenditures advanced.
Durable goods
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
i
I
!9?9
70UHCt-
1944
1947
1948
1949
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939.
1944_
1946.
1947_
1948.
67.5
111. 6
147. 8
166. 9
178. 8
35. 3
67. 1
87. 5
96.2
102. 2
Durable
goods
6.7
7. 1
16. 5
22.0
23. 5
Services
25.5
37.4
44. 5
48. 8
53. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 1
Second quarter
1
...
175. 2
178. 7
180. 3
180. 9
101.2
102. 4
101.8
103. 3
22. 7
23.8
24. 8
22. 9
51.3
52. 5
53. 7
54. 8
177.9
178. 2
99.9
98. 7
22. 5
23. 6
55.4
55.9
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail wil] not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See
Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
2ft
CONSUMER CREDIT
Total consumer credit increased $288 million, or 2 percent, during June. A large part of the rise
was attributable to further expansion in instalment credit, especially for sales of automobiles.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
2 0
1939
1943
1946 1947
END OF YEAR
1948
1947
1948
1949
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E S Y S T E M ,
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars]
End of period
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
Instalment credit
Total
Automobile
sale
credit
Other sale
credit and
loans
Charge
accounts
Other
consumer
credit 1
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
7,969
5, 378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319
4,424
2,001
4,000
6,434
8, 600
1,267
175
544
1, 151
1, 961
3, 157
1,826
3,456
5,283
6, 639
1, 544
1,498
3,054
3,612
3,854
2,001
1,879
3, 137
3,627
3,865
1948: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
14, 311
14, 669
14, 723
14, 916
15, 231
15, 518
15, 739
16, 319
7,318
7,533
7,738
7,972
8, 190
8,233
8,322
8,600
1,536
1,602
1,689
1, 781
1,858
1,889
1,922
1,961
5,782
5,931
6,049
6, 191
6,332
6, 344
6,400
6,639
3,245
3,352
3, 185
3, 130
3,227
3,457
3,557
3,854
3,748
3,784
3,800
3,814
3,814
3,828
3,860
3, 865
1949: January. _ _
_ _
Februarv
March.
•_
_
April2
May
_. „ _. _
June 2
15, 749
15, 332
15, 360
15,618
15, 853
16, 141
8,425
8, 339
8,427
8,627
8,890
9, 133
1,965
1, 996
2, 105
2,241
2,386
2,507
6,460
6,343
6,322
6,386
6,504
6,626
3,457
3, 176
3, 148
3, 258
3,249
3,282
3,867
3,817
3, 785
3,733
3, 714
3,726
1
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank loans, after dropping for two months, increased about $300 million in June. Banks held $200 million less
in government securities and $ 200 million more in other securities.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
125
125
100
100
- INVESTMENT
U. S . G O V E R N M E N T
IN
SECURITIES
75
50
25
25
1929
1939
END
J
1945
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
S
1947
OF Y E A R
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
*
J
A
S
O
N
D
1948
END
OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929
1939
1945.
_
1947
1948 .
1948: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1 949 : January
February
March
April
May
June ! _ _ _ _
1
.
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___
_ _ __
_ _
„
_ _ _ _
_
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49. 5
40. 7
124.0
116. 3
114. 3
114.6
113. 9
114.8
115. 1
113.6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3
114. 5
113.4
112. 5
112. 5
113. 4
113. 7
36.0
17. 2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
39.5
39. 9
40.1
40. 6
41.7
41. 6
42. 3
42. 5
42.4
42. 0
42.4
41.3
40.9
41.2
Total
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13.5
23. 4
97.9
78.2
71.8
75.0
74.0
74.6
74.5
71. 9
72.5
71.9
71.8
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
71. 2
72.6
72. 5
U.S.
Government
securities
4.8
16.3
90.6
69.2
62.6
65.9
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62.5
63.3
62.8
62.6
63.0
62. 2
60. 9
62.0
63.2
63.0
Other
securities
8.7
7. 1
7.3
9.0
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.1
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9. 2
9.2
9.3
9.5
MONEY SUPPLY
The continued increase in time deposits in June was offset by a drop in demand deposits, decreasing
the total money supply slightly from the May level.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
I 50
TIME DEPOSITS
ijADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS
1J_L i-J Ll-l-J^1939
1943
1946 1947
END OF YEAR
I9'!fi
J
F
M
A
M
J J A
'347
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J J A
1948
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J J A
1949
S
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD CF GOVERNORS OF THt FEDfftAL RESERVE '-^31£M.
rnnwpn
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948- —
1948: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
3
March
April33
May
June 3
_
_
_
_
-..
_ _ _
_
__
_
— -_ _ _
_. _ _ _ __
___
_
_
63.3
112.4
164. 0
170.0
169. 1
165. 1
165.7
166.0
166.7
166.9
168. 1
168. 1
169. 1
168.2
166. 3
164.2
165.5
165.7
165. 6
Currency
outside
banks
6. 4
18.8
26.7
26.5
26. 1
25.4
25.6
25. 5
25.6
25.7
25.7
25. 9
26. 1
25. 2
25. 1
25. 1
24.9
25.0
25. 0
Adjusted
demand
deposits l
29. 8
60. 8
83.3
87. 1
85. 5
82.8
82.7
83. 3
83.8
83.9
85. 1
85. 2
85. 5
85.4
83.4
81. 1
82. 4
82. 6
82. 2
Time
deposits 2
27. 1
32.7
54.0
56. 4
57. 5
56. 9
57.4
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.0
57. 5
57.6
57. 8
58. 0
58. 1
58. 2
58. 4
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. "Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
a
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
O
N
D
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cosh deficit of about $2,2 billion during the 2nd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.2 billion during
the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
i6
I6
.CASH RECEIPTS
CASH PAYMENTS
JL
1947
1946
1948
1949
1948
1949
E X C E S S OF CASH RECEIPTS
u
EXCESS OF CASH
1946
1947
CA LENDAR
YEARS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1
Calendar years
Federal cash
payments to
the public 1
Excess of receipts ( + ) or
payments (— )
Calendar year total:
+ 54
41, 372
41, 426
1946
+ 5,695
38, 584
44, 279
1947
_ - .
+ 7,967
44, 920
36, 954
1948
_
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
12, 244
12, 632
1946' First quarter
+ 388
9,462
12, 008
Second quarter. _ _
— 2 547
9,
702
8, 449
Third quarter
+ 1 252
8 671
9, 630
Fourth quarter
+ 959
14, 345
9, 163
1947: First quarter
_ __
+ 5 182
10, 628
9, 847
Second quarter
— 781
10, 257
10, 220
Third quarter
_ _ __
— 37
8, 536
9, 869
Fourth quarter
+ 1 331
15, 037
8, 637
1948' First quarter
+ 6 400
9, 033
10, 238
Second quarter
„ _
+ 1 205
8, 798
10, 085
Third quarter
+ 1 287
9, 560
10, 486
Fourth quarter
__
— 925
13, 122
9, 931
1949: First quarter __2
_ __
+ 3 191
10, 940
8,760
Second quarter
— 2, 180
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously,
they were reported as expenditures.
2
Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
o
32
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