Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1963
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
DECEMBER 1963
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
DECEMBER
1963
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
JOSEPH F. DALY, Chief Mathematical Statistician
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
JOHN BAKER, Public Information Officer
Office of th* ChUf Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
SAMUEL L. BROWN, Assistant Chief
Series ESI No. 63-12
Subscription price is $4 a year ($1 additional for
foreign mailing). Single issues are 40 cents.
This report is prepared under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief
Economic Statistician of the Bureau of the Census. His technical staff
includes Feliks Tamm, Allan H. Young, Betty Tunstall, and Eugene L.
Rossidivito, Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine Censky of
the Statistical Reports Division,
Airmail delivery in, the United States is available
at «n additional charge of $5.25 per year.
The cooperation of the various government and private agencies which
provide data for the report is gratefully acknowledged. Credit is given
to these agencies in the list of series and sources on the back cover of
this report.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U,S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office. See list below.
Correspondence about technical subject matter should be addressed to
the Office of the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census,
Washington, D.C. 20233.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FIELD OFFICES
Albuquerque, N. Mex. 87101
U.S. Courthouse
Anchorage, Alaska 99501
Rm. 360, Loussac-vSogn Bldg.
5th and D Streets
Atlanta, Ga. 30303
4th Fl,, Home Savings Bldg.
75 Forsyth St., N.W.
Bii-minglmm, Ala. 35203
Title Building
2030 Third Ave. N.
Boston, Mass. 02110
Room 230
80 Federal Street
Buffalo, N,Y. 14203
504 Federal Bldg.
117 Bllioott St.
Chariest™, S.C. 29401
Suite 2C1, Marcus Bldg.
6 Broad St.
Cheyenne, Wyo. 82001
207 Majestic Bldg.
16th and Capitol Ave.
Chicago, 111. 60606
Room 13 D2
226 West Jackson Blvd.
Cincinnati, Ohio 45202
809 Fifth Third Bank Bldg,
36 E. Fourth St.
Cleveland, Ohio 44101
Federal Reserve Bank Bldg.
E. 6th St., and Superior Ave.
Dallas, Tex. 75201
3-104, Merchandise Mart
500 S. Ervay St.
Denver, Colo. 80202
142 New Custom House
19th and Stout Sts.
Detroit, Mich. 48226
438 Federal Bldg,
230 W, Fort St.
Greensboro, N.C. 27402
407 U.S. Post Office Bldg.
Los Angeles, Calif. 90015
450 Western F'acific Bldg.
1031 S. Broadway
Memphis, Tenn. 38103
345 Federal Office Bldg.
167 N, Main St.
Hartford, Conn. 06103
18 Asylum Street
Honolulu, Hawaii 96813
202 International Savings Bldg.
1022 Bethel St.
Minneapolis, Minn, 55401
304 Federal Bklg,
11 OS. Fourth S1:.
New Orleans, La. 70130
1508 Masonic Tsniple Bldg.
333 St. Charles Ave.
New York, N.Y. 10001
Empire State Bldg.
350 Fifth Ave.
Philadelphia, Pa. 19107
Jefferson Bldg.
1015 Chestnut St.
Phoenix, Ariz. 85025
New Federal Bldt;.
23ON. First Ave.
Houston, Tex. 77002
5102 Federal Bldg.
515 Rusk Ave.
Jacksonville, Fla. 32202
512 Green leaf Bldg.
204 Laura St.
Kansas City, Mo. 64106
Room 2011
911 Walnut St.
Miami, Fla. 33132
408 A ins ley Bldg.
14 N.E. First Ave.
Milwaukee, Wis. 53203
Straus Bldg., Suite 1201
238 West Wisconsin Ave.
Pittsburgh, Pa. 15222
1030 Park Bldg.
355 Fifth Ave.
Portland, Oreg, 97204
217 Old U.S. Courthouse
520 SW Morrison St.
Reno, Nev. 89502
1479 Wells Ave.
Richmond, Va, 23240
2105 Federal Bldg.
400 N, Eighth St.
St, Louis, Mo. 63103
2511 Federal Bldg.
1520 Market St.
Salt Lake City, Utah 84101
222 SW Temple St.
San Francisco, Calif. 94011
419 Customhouse
555 Battery St.
Santuree, P.R. 00907
Room 628
605 Condado Ave.
Savannah, Ga. 31402
235 U.S. Courthouse and
Post Office
125-29 Bull St.
Seattle, Wash, 98104
809 Federal Office Bldg.
909 First Ave.
Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 22nd of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc. These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 6, 10, 20, 24, 25, 64, 65, and 96,
formerly compiled by the Office of Business Economics of the Department of Commerce, are now
compiled by the Bureau of the Census. They have
been revised on the basis of the following:
(a)
Divisional reporting for large multiproduct companies; (b) revision of seasonal and trading-day factors; and (c) adjustment of shipments and inventory
levels to the establishment benchmarks of the Annual Survey of Manufactures . Basic data for series
6, 25, 64, and 96 are shown in Manufacturers*
Shipments. Inventories, and Orders: 1947-63 Revised (available from Superintendent of Documents,
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
D . C . , 20402, at $1).
Series 24, Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment industries, which formerly included 11 components, now includes 13 new
components. (See table 6B, page 41, for identification of components.) The new series 24 covers
about half the value of the former series primarily
because of the exclusion of various nonmachinery
items such as iron and steel and fabricated metal
products .
Series 10 has been revised to reflect the changes
in series 24.
Series D6, 10, 20, 24, and 65 are shown in
charts 1 or 2 on the revised basis beginning with
January 1953; prior to this date, data, except for
series 20, have been adjusted to the level of the
revised data. Parallel oblique lines denote the
break in continuity from the old to new series. No
such adjustment seemed necessary for series 20.
2. Series 31 has been revised by the Office of
Business Economics to reflect modifications in
data for manufacturers' inventories, merchant
wholesalers, and retail trade. A detailed description of these revisions will be published in the
December issue of the Survey of Current Business.
3. Series 66, Consumer installment debt, has
been revised by the source agency to include the
use of new benchmark data for the period beginning
with January 1962 and new seasonal adjustment for
the period beginning with January I960.
4. Series 128 has been revised to reflect the
Japanese Government's conversion of these data to
a I960 base and the new seasonal adjustment.
5. Additional explanation has been included at
the end of the section, "MCD Moving Averages,"
page 2.
The January issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on January 22.
ii
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3
.
1
1
1
1
2
2
4
4
5
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U . S . Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January I960 to
Present
6
11
14
15
18
20
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During
Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business
Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3.—Diffusion Indexes — Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present .
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic
Activities: January I960 to Present
.Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified
Time Spans and Percent of Series Rising: July 1962 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods
Industries
C . (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
,.
E. (D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
State Programs
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
iii
30
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Contents
Cyclical P a t t e r n s
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5 . —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels a,s Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9
Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as
Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates
in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9. ^Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from
Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After
the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
57
58
59
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of
Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for
Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1962
to December 1963)
Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (not shown this
month)
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 (not shown
this month)
Appendix C. —Historical Data for Selected Series
66
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
67
61
62
63
65
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments , a paper "Business
Cycle Indicators -The Known and the Unknown" by Julius Shiskin was included
as appendix H of the September 1963 issue. This paper explains what is
known about business cycle indicators, the problems of using them, and the
research needed to improve their usefulness . It was presented at the 34th
session of the International Statistical Institute in Ottawa, Canada, on August
24, 1963.
A limited number of copies of the September issue of Business Cycle
Developments are available , free of charge. If you would like copies, write
to the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Cemsus, Washington, D . C . ,
20233.
v
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading," "roughly coincident, 11 or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy.
The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
whichhave important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1).—Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6), —
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( l) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, ( 2 ) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and ( 3 ) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places,
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal and Related Statistical
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows: 4, 5, 9, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30,
55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, and 128.
1
Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 97
which is the sum of seasonally adjusted components , and series 9 which is based on unpublished
source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by
the collecting agency will be substituted for the sericss mentioned above whenever they are published.
Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
the year. Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
made for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel. Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
avjyrage weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
may be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations .
MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12,-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation).
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjxisted values over
3-rnonth spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.1 MCD moving averages are shown
for some series in chart 1. To provide an indication of the variation aboxit these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for years
beginning with I960.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually Larger than those computed from historical
series and shown in appendix C. MCD is usually
computed for a fairly long period, one covering
both expansions and contractions. Since the pace
of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide an
accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus MCD computed for the period 1933-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery
when expansion has usually been rapid and too low
during the late stages of expansion when the rate ©f
advance has usually been small. This limitation
should also be borne in mind when making xise of
this measure.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented— rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.—There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. 2 For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging arid appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-to«
month rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2 # rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises ,
J
For a more complete description of MOD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 196l) ,
2
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
Descriptions and Procedures
Diffusion indexes. — Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is . They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over
1-month intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month
intervals depending upon the irregularity of the
series. Quarterly series are shown at 1-quarter
or 4-quarter intervals. The indexes based on 1month intervals are more "current" but they are
also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes
(see chart 2) . Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered n D6" is
computed from components of series number 6 .
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5), Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D 4 1 , D 4 7 , D 5 4 ,
and D58) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over 1-month and
either 3- or 5-month spans while, for 1 indicator
( D 5 8 ) , comparisons are over 1-month spans only.
The 12 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two indexes on capital appropriations
(602 companies and 15 industries)—NBER indexes
based on data from the National Industrial Conference Board; the Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based on monthly reports of changes
in profits (200 companies); and First National City
Bank of New York index based on quarterly profit
reports ( 7 00 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the following:
Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and new
orders (400 companies) , based on data from Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity
groups), based on data from the Association of
American Railroads; and new plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries), based on data from
the Office of Business Economics and the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
months (see table 3 ) .
Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions. ) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table l ) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L*" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead.
On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes.
These
Descriptions and Procedures
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- or
5-month spans.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured from the May I960 reference peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
the current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level oJ: activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this respect,
with earlier expansions.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough "date's (table 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the trough level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spans from previous reference peaks. This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes f r o m reference peak levels and from ref
erence peak dates.
These comparisons will be
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all s e r i e s ) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 r e f e r ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B).
Specific
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These
comparisons differ from those shown for reference
cycles in that they show the status only up to the
specific peak date. For some series past specific
expansions were shorter than the current one and,
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historicali Time Series (charts 1 , 2 , and 3) . —
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Five ratio scales and several arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series . The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5> for additional help in using these
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion with its performance
Descriptions and Procedures
during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined at
the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and specific trough (chart 5). Thus these charts facilitate
judgements on the vigor of the current expansion
relative to cyclical movements during the corresponding expansions of previous cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current busi-
ness or reference cycle ( i . e . , t h e cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles.
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns1', for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons.
Trough fT) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas'
as designated by
Peak fP) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-! figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexescharts 2 and 3.)
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotte
Broken lines indicate table-1
a for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
Parallel lines indicate a break
in co,ntinuity--e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
"I" = first quarter)
See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series
Dotted line indicates anticipated
«S^,
.,1-
'<
o
61. Bus. e xpend., new plant
and equip. (bil. dol.)--Q .
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is
a^ semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
""scale L-2", a semiloj
ilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948
TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hrs.)
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)"
30. Nonagr. placements, oil indus. (thous.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
inverted scale
4. Temp, layoff, all Indus, (thous.}-inverted scale; MCI) moving avg,— 5-term
5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.)--inverted scale
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Road Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
ew investment commitment
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
6. New orders, dur. goods indus.
(bil. dol.)
"'•
24, New orders, mocb. and equip, indus. (biL dol.)
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq. ft. floor area)
MCD moving average—6-term
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
" :•:• ::»T»:
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)-Q
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (mil.)
MCD moving average-6-term
29. New bldg. permits, private housing units '•""
(index: 1957-59-100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," poge 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
New businesses and business failures [ £>
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
13. New bus incorporations (tltous
, A/.'..*'.'.'."
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil, dol.)-$$
inverted scale; MCD moving civg,— 6-term &••:<<
15, Large bus, failures (no. per wk.)-tnverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 6-term £..
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1 963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Oct.)
T
P
T
Profits and stock prices
35
30
25
20
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (bil. dol.)-0 xtffvl
15
120
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg, (index: 1957-59=100)
110 2
-Si
100 §
90
Xv""vX
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)-Q t"4^
12
10
8
6
20
16
:
'&$ 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,[
ail industries (percent)-Q
12
:•'.•«
8
80
70
60
Kv:y.wX.;.:v::
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43 =10)
50
40
30
20
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts'!, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
10
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Moy)
(Feb.)
P
T
Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices
+10
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bil. dol
0
1
31. Change in book value, mfg.'J"';'
' ' and trade inventories (bit. dol.)
+ 10
0
^
1
-10
20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories, materials.;..,
and supplies (bil. dol,)
+ 4
•f 2<
0
Jj
— 2
y
— 4
75
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
50
1
25
26. Buying policy, prod, tntls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
75
M
A/a
•.„.
i
25
75
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower del
50 i
J
'•
.;
25
+ 3
•f 2
+'
0
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus, (bil. dol.
•;• •/•"•."•': •:',
160
HO ^
"";"*
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59 ^
120 4
TOO §
80
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953 1954
Soe "How to Road Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948
TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
60
-j
55 .a
8
50
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)^
Employment and unemployment
65
42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)
60 2
"5
55 *
50
3.0
4.0
5.0 «
"S
6.0 "
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent)--inverted scale
2.0
3.0
4.0 <
-£
5.0 §
6.0
7.0
45. Av. weekly insured unemployment rate '"'••/."
(percent)--inverted scale
f" '•'"
3.0
4.0
5.0 <
6.0 §
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-100)
120
100 cr,
80 |
60
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bil dol.)-Q
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol.)-G
300
J 250
1948
1949 1950
See "How to Road Charts
1951
1952
1953
1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
13
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
B
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May)
(July) (Apr.)
P
(Feb.)
P
T
T
2.2
Income and trade
2.0 ~
~ii
1.8
"•;?•' 51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. do!.)
§
1.6
475
450
425;
400375
350
325
125
120
115
110
105
}"~'\ 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.
ioo:
95
90
85
80
21
20
19
18
:""v:'^: 54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
17 !
15
14
:
:
.!•:•/ 55, Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods'.'^
.(index: 1957-59=100)
no
100
Wholesale prices
90
80
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
14
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
T_
'.••••; 61. Bus. expend., new plant and oquip. (bil. dol.)-Q •
vestment expenditures
:<
- ••'.; 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957
C ost per unit of output
" 63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59
;y-:>'Q
64. Book value of tnfrs.1 inventories (bil. dol.)',,;.-.^
. ..
''".%'.:•
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt {bil. dol.)
67. Bank rotes on short-term bus. loans (percent)-Q
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Reed Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
196 L 1962
1963
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)
87. General imports (bil. dol.)
. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.}
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance
of payments (bil. dol.)-Q
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
16
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948
TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance — Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
82. Fed. cosh payments to public (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average—6-term
Federal budget and military obligations
83. Fed. cash receipts from public fbil. dol.)
MCD moving average-6-t«rm
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average-6-terni
95. Surplus OK deficit
:x
Tea. Income and prod.:":
acct. (bil. dol.)-G
.«
'j
•
>••;;•£:'•.
/
v
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.]£<
MCD moving average— 6-ter
91. Defense Dept. oblig., totoj (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average-6-term
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. rfoM
MCD moving average—6-term :-;-•-•'"';.-
:^ *
1 948
1 949
1 950
1#5 1
1 952
1 953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1 954
1 955
1 956
1 957
1 958
1 959
1 960
1 961
1 962
1 963
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nev.)
1
V»"
(Oet.)
«*r- »" —••
(July)
(Aug.)
9
I
1
(July) {Apr.)
(May) (F«b.)
f
T
'V| 85. Change in money supply (percent}
•"v
"inanciol series [
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent)
93. Free reserves (bit. dol.
jrices (index:
1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index:
1957-59=100)?
$96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. do!.)&£;!
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)
-Q
-I 4.0
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
"How to Read Charts 1,2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
I Industrial production indexes
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59=100);..,:
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100)^
123. Canada(indx: 1957-59-100)
47. United States (index: 1957-59^100) -'^'.
:
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
*
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962 1963
19
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Industrial production
125. West Germany (index:
1957-59=100)
:•.„•.•:•:.• :•::•::•
'x;>y.x " y',
128.
Japan (index 1957-59-100}
126. France (index:
127.
Italy (index:
1957-59=100)
1957-59=100)
-J 40
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
•ee "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3, " page 5,
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
20
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by (HI; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for Identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Average 2. Accession 30. Nonagriworkweek of rate, manu- cultural
production facturing
placements ,
workers ,
all indusmanufactries
turing
(Per 100
(Hours per
prod. wkr. ] employees ) (Thous. )
Year and
month
I960
January
March
April
May.. . .„
June
* ....
July
„.,
August
September
October
** .
December
1961
January
March
April
May
June . . . „
July...,,
September
3. Layoff 4. Number of
rate, manu- persons on
facturing temporary
layoff, all1
industries
(Per 100
employees ) (Thous. )
5. Avg. weekly6. Value
of
initial claims mfrs.1 new
for unemploy- orders, durment insuranc^ able goods
State programs industries
24. Value of
mf rs . ' new
orders, machinery and
equipment
Industries
( Thous . ) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.)
Revised^
RoviHod*
281
15.68
2.73
15.52
271
3.83
15.27
303
2.?8
14.92
294
2.9?
15.36
316
a. 89
2.87
322
15.43
15,25
335
2.78
2,78
363
15.65
331
2,75
15.69
14.50
373
2.69
©2.60
14.62
385
2.86
14-86
381
40.6
40.2
39.9
39.7
40.0
39.8
39.6
39.6
39.5
39.6
39.3
©38.4
4.2
4.1
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.9
©3.5
3.6
3.6
518
519
501
512
490
481
475
472
476
471
453
459
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
122
110
116
156
160
145
177
154
153
166
128
183
39.2
39.4
39.4
39.5
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.8
40.3
40.6
40.3
3.9
3.8
4.3
4-2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
3.8
EU.4
4.3
4.1
©444
447
459
448
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551
2.9
©2.9
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
173
©222
215
* 141
150
151
101
136
127
115
115
127
393
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
40.7
40.2
40.4
40.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
559
572
574
0592
557
557
550
555
554
559
540
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
154
[382
118
112
116
114
128
131
120
129
139
114
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
17.70
17.70
17.15
17 . 02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.3
®40.7
40.6
P40.6
3.7
3.9
3. B
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
r3.9
p3.8
(NM
552
557
557
563
554
543
541
538
555
569
524
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
rl.8
[Hlpl.7
179
112
108
146
87
85
130
134
100
139
142
316
295
277
288
287
288
286
285
284
276
[HI3 275
308
18.47
18.23
IB. 78
019.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
17.07
18.24
18.59
F17.76
©13.95
14.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.89
15.92
1,6.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26
2.76
2.74
2.71
2.74
2. 70
2. BO
3.03
3.07
a.aa
2,91
2.98
2.96
1962
February .......
March.... „
April.... „
May
July
August
October
1963
January
March..,,
April
May
June
July
August »
October. ........
November ,.*,.,.
(m)
3.15
3.3C
2.97
3.31
3. 1C
3.02
3.0?
2 . 9/4
2! 9*
3.0«
3.1*
3.0?
3.2!
1,21
3.2S
3.3!
3.£
3.2<
3.3:
3.3!
3-403.5'
P3.2;
^•Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962.
the2f1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
3ee "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
3
iteek ended December 7, 1963.
Basic Data
21
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by E; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5 f 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The "r" indicates
revised; "p". preliminary; "en, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
Year and
month
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space )
1960
March
April
flfcy
June
July
August
September
October.
November . *
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropr iat ions ,
602 manufacturing corpo- .
rations
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
(Bil-i W. )
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
3.27
3.35
3.27
3.52
3.51
3-41
3.41
3.41
3.44
3.34
3.20
3.49
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.2ft
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
2*27
.
2*02 :
:
-
7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started
•©1*78
2.10
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building permits
;
(^te9»100)
1,444
1,508
1,107
1,252
1,249
1,231
1,184
1,285
1,113
1,210
1,192
©1,041
100.2
98.2
86.0
93.9
95.4
88.1
91.5
87.8
88.4
89.9
90.8
©87.0
1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
89.5
88.2
91.3
91,4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
12. Net change
in business
population,
ope rat ing
businesses
13. Number
of new business incorporations
(Thous.)
( Number )
+19
+17
+14
•..
+10
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,035
14,264
14,097
1961
March
April
May
June ...........
July . . . »
October
December
1962
January
:
;
38.99
44.10
45.19
April
40.87
May
45.39
42.99
39.86
July
August
42.65
39.90
41.62
fovember* ...... 41.68
42.48 :
1963
toril
fey
September
44.94
46.98
38.92
37.87
• 47.95
053.97
44.78
45.31 '
42.55
51.28
(NA)
x
3.71
3.98
3.70
3.95
3.77
3.69
3.72
3.62
3.53
3.67
3.81
3.92
3.86
3.83
3.75
3.97
4.30
4.00
3.94
3.92
4.02
Ii3p4.30
(Nfc)
1.84
1.93
'
!
2*. 23
2.10
•..
2.34
* •.
2.02
*.•
2.41
••.
2.71
r2.l6
r2.65
EfetfilS
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
i
;
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
102.8
109.8
105.0
111.5
103.7
107.1
108.6
106.3
110.2
109.5
114.9
114.5
1,317
1,353
1,549
1,590
1,590
1,554
1,573
1,434
rl,697
[EJrl,779
pi, 495
110.0
109.3
112.9
111.3
117.9
120.5
115.1
111,4
120.9
EJ ri.25.3
p!21.0
©+6
• •.
+10
+10
+ib
+ii
+12
+ii
+ii
+ii
+12
13+12
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,711
15,279
15,775
15,727
15,372
15,363
14,990
15,171
15,216
15,232
15,121
14,892
14,767
14,457
15,398
15,604
15,257
15,756
15,512
15,356
16,201
15,575
[316,510
(NA)
22
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series fire indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated ^y © and current highs, by [H]; the reverse it?
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
no^ reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
N3ER Leading Indicators — Continued
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures
Year and
month
(Mil. dol.)
15. Business 16. Corpofailures with rate profits
liabilities after taxes
of $100,000
and over
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index, mfg.
(Number per
week)
(1957-59=
100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
( Cents )
( Percent )
(1941-43-10)
21. Change ir
bus . invent©'
ries, tern an*
nonf arm, af te
valuation ad
justment
(Ann. rate,
btl. dol.)
1960
April, ,
May., . . ,
July,
September
October
November
52.68
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41
77.79
83,73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
74.89
108.58
94.54
91.70
107.48
132.64
103.73
122.39
98.94
90.41
37
E132
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
153.15
90.04
93.49
89.72
122.31
89.37
142.28
058.40
92.59
94.28
261.59
49
42
41
40
54
38
38
42
44
44
38
1961
January . ,
March
April
May
June
July.
November
December
1962
March
April. . ,
May
June
Julv
August
September.
October. .......
1963
January
February.
March
April
May
June
. ..
July
September
October
November . * . . » . .
1
24 !i
22.6
20.9
20.4
©19»! 2
2l'.6
22.0
24^3
24.2
24^6
24*3
25^5
25 .*4
26.8
(H) 27^5
Average for Docombar 16, 17* and 18, 1963.
103.6
102.3
101.9
101.4
100. S
100.4
100.4
99.9
99.9
100.0
99.9
98.9
99.2
©98.9
99.0
100.0
100.2
100.9
101.2
102.6
102.2
102.0
101.7
102.1
101.2
101.0
101.4
100.6
101.1
100.7
101.3
100.0
102.4
101.3
101.3
100.9
100.7
100.0
100.8
100.6
102.1
0,103.1
102.0
rlOO.7
rl01.5
rl01.3
pl02.5
8°e
9*.7
8!6
9.1
?! 3
8.4
7.2
B.I
©o'.6
©7.*7
7^6
8!5
1\9
8^5
038. 6
9.3
s!2
9*.l
••.
• ••
8.1
9.1
a!i
8^9
8^3
9»!i
7 .'9
9!!
8.5
9.5
s!5
EJ9.5
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.47
56.80
59.72
62.17
64.12,
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70. H
70. U
69.07
70.98
72.85
6373.03
72.62
1
74.56
+9.
+4.
+a.
-1^.
©4!
+1!
+3!
•*-7!l
EH-B!;
4!
•<-3l<
-»i!<
+ 'ij
+4 ^
+4*2
Basic Data
23
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current -highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by QH]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r(t indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1960
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
Dctober
November
1961
January
^arch
i^pril
May
July
September
October
December
1962
February
March
April
my
July
August
November
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventoriesf
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
20. Change in
book value
of
mfrs.1 inventories,
materials and
supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
37. Purchased
materials,
percent reporting higher
inventories
( Percent
reporting)
26, Buying pol-32. Vendor
icy, production performance ,
matls., percent percent
reporting com- reporting
mitments 60
slower
days or longer* deliveries*
( Percent
( Percent
reporting)
reporting)
25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(1957-59=100)
+2.3
+1.6
+1.5
+0.1
+0.4
-0.3
+0.3
-0,3
-2.5
-0.5
-1.8
©-3.4
48
58
52
47
44
45
42
37
41
38
41
39
64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48
44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38
©-1.40
-1.00
-1.38
-0.94
-0.77
-0.42
-0.56
+0.33
+0.13
-0.75
-0.30
-0.19
105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96.8
-1.5
-1.8
-1.9
-1.4
-1.2
-1.5
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
.0+6.6
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0.36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
10)104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+4.3
+6.6
+5.3
+1.8
+6.6
+5.8
+4.2
+3.4
+7.1
+5.5
+1.3
+6.0
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.3
-0.2
+1.8
-0.1
+0.5
-1.6
1358
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
El 61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0,60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+1.3
+2,5
+2.1
+2.4
+4.0
+3.8
+4.4
+0.5
+4.1
p+6.9
(NA)
+0.9
0.0
0.0
+0.7
-0.5
+0.5
+1.0
+1.8
-0.6
p+1.0
<NA)
46
48
46
49
57
57
55
50
50
45
42
41
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
50
52
54
060
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
0+0.97
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0,33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.04
+0.37
+0.17
p-0.46
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
2
97.8
+10.7
+11.2
+13.5
-2.0
+6.8
+1.2
+2.4
-1.8
+2.4
-1.5
-1.7
©-8.9
-4.9
-3.1
-8.1
+1.2
+0.4
-0.1
+1.5
+2.3
+5.0
+3.3
[HI +7. 4
+6.5
. +1-3
1963
March
April
May
JUly
August
September
1
See
2
"New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
Average for December 16, 17, and 18, 1963.
Basic Data
24
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Seriss are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted aeries are indicated
by an asterisk (#), Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by Oil; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order.' Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p"« preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
42. Total 43. Unemnonagricul- ployment
tural em- rate, total1
ployment t
labor force
survey1
41. Number
of employees
in nonagrieultural
establishments
Year and
month
( Thous . )
( Thous . )
40. Unem45. Avg. weekly
insured unemployment
rate, mar- ployment rate,
1
ried males State programs
( Percent )
( Percent )
( Percent )
46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers
(1957-100)
(1957-59100)
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
54,331
54,527
54,499
54,728
54,555
54,449
54,395
54,352
54,248
54,160
54,015
53,752
60,521
60,863
60,464
61,144
61,252
61,215
61,090
60,982
61, 1U
60,857
61,142
©60,801
5.29
4.96
5.45
5.21
5.18
5.46
5.48
5.66
5.60
5.98
6.20
6.60
3.38
3.11
3.53
3.35
3.42
3.60
3.72
3.85
3,80
4.28
4.22
4.74
4.27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
111.7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,725
©53,541
53,615
53,713
53,911
54,165
54,294
54,444
54,480
54,593
54,325
54,927
60,980
60,912
61,314
61,111
61,091
61,448
61,254
61,283
61,330
61,476
61,766
61,788
6.68
7.03
6.82
7.01
©7.11
6.91
6.96
6.67
6.69
6.42
6.07
5.98
4.78
©5.09
4.72
4.91
5.00
4.78
4.74
4.61
4.54
4.12
3.94
3.91
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4,81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,946
55,223
55,368
55,703
55,822
55,908
56,010
56,019
56,125
56,195
56,205
56,211
61,882
62,148
62,356
62,295
62,552
62,541
62,715
63,017
63,074
63,036
62,708
63,248
5.84
5.69
5.49
5.58
5.52
5.50
5.43
5.67
5.63
05.34
5.76
5.54
3.81
3.59
3.53
3.69
3.48
3.64
3.54
3.54
3.43
3.35
3.43
3.57
4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
03.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4.38
r4.46
r4.5'7
r4.6?
102.3
105.9
0106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
92.8
96.8
95.9
e95.2
114.6
116.3
117.3
117.8
118.3
118.4
119.4
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.5
119.1
56,333
56,458
56,706
56,873
57,060
<> .
57,194
,.
57,340
57,344
r57,453
r 57, 622
Slp57,663
62,988
63,245
63,628
63,851
63,643
63,693
64,137
64,079
0364,192
64,156
64,153
5.77
6.09
5.59
5.65
5.91
5.66
5.61
5.48
5.55
5.51
5.85
3.81
4.04
3.50
3.37
3.37
3.12
3.H
2.96
2.92
02.91
3.17
r4.75
r4.64
r4.36
r4.19
r4.15
r4.13
4.08
4.H
4.00
4.03
4.16
2
4.22
e97.5
elOO.5
e9S.5
100.2
95.9
94.7
96.2
94.0
92.9
99.6
plOO.3
119.2
120.2
121.3
122.5
124.5
125.8
126.5
rl25.7
r!25.B
126.6
EJpl26.9
February.
March.
April
May
July
Septembesr
November
A31')! 9
442.1.
440 ,*2
437 il
1961
February,, ......
March. . . .
April
,
Mav
July
;....
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
November.
'
©434. C
443. /i
450.4
463.1
467 is
474.6
475! 6
481 i 4
1963
March
April
May
June
July
485 ii
489 ."4
,.J
0495 ii
1
Bo^ inning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series . Prior to April 1962a
tho 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Wook ended November 30, 1963.
Basic Data
25
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by El; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
49. Gross national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )
57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
51. Bank
debits outside
NYC, 343
centers
52. Personal
income
53. Labor
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(1957-59=100)
1960
March
April
May
June
July
August
November. ......
5o6!4
491 !l
504^1
499 ".9
503^5
500.7
502 ll
504^4
©500.4
504^7
512 '.5
511^4
521 '.9
518 !3
53?'.8
530.5
544^5
536^3
552^4
546! 6
556>!8
553^1
565 !2
56l! 2
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
395.9
395.6
395.9
400.8
402.3
403.0
402.7
403.5
404-4
405.2
404.5
©403.2
108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,097
18,200
18,178
18,557
18,320
18,312
18,113
18,195
18,207
18 , 298
18,080
18,008
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
404.4
405.3
410.1
411.7
4U.5
417.3
420.8
419.1
420.5
424.3
428.4
431.3
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
430.1
434.0
436.4
439.5
440.8
441.7
443.5
444.6
445.5
447.7
449.9
452.1
111.3
112.8
114.0
116.1
116.0
115-9
116.6
116.8
116.7
116.5
116.9
116.5
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
r 19, 837
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
©100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100,9
100.8
100.7
r2, 148.0
r2,085.6
r2,095.7
r2, 198.1
r2,150.5
2,105.3
2,276.6
2,190.0
2,275.0
(32,315.8
p2,246.9
454.0
452.9
454.8
457.4
460.1
462.6
464.2
465.1
467.3
r471.2
Q3p472.8
116,4
117.1
117.8
119.4
120.8
121.6
121.6
121.8
122.6
r!23.4
(Bpl23.4
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
r20,426
EE]r20,751
p20,586
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.2
100.5
100.8
100.9
101.0
1961
March
April
May
July
September
October
1962
March
April
May
June
July
October
December
1963
February
March
April
May
June
July
571*8
566*.6
579 !6
575.3
0588.7
0584.4
October
H/eek ended December 17, 1963.
loo. a
0101.1
101.0
1
101.1
26
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are oeasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series arc Indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by (H] ; the reverse is
trui for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the baefc cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; »e"( estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
.. i
35.15
February
March
April
May
36*. 36
July
35.90
...
October
November
...
35.50
1961
January* , ,
February. »
March
April
May.
June
33^85
©33*50
...
Jnlv
34*70
September , « . . . .
October. . . „ . . . .
35*40
1962
January
February. ......
April,... . .
May
35*76
36*95
July ,
September. , , , , .
October
»..
December. « * , , , ,
1963
January
February. ......
March
,. .
April
,.
May.*
June
38*.35
.. •
37 !95
36.* 95
38 ".05
July
September
October
November
Gil 40. 00
»•
*
ra40.75
S
40.75
64. Book value
62. Index of
63. Index of
labor cost
labor cost
of manufacper unit of
turers ' invenper unit of
output, total output, total tories, all
manufacturing GNP
manufacturing
industries
(1957-59-100)
97.1
98.6
99.1
99.7
100.3
100.9
100.9
101.4
101.2
101.2
101.7
102.2
101.9
102.1
102.0
100.8
100.4
99.6
99.3
©98.1
98.4
98.5
99.1
98,7
99.4
99.5
99.0
99.9
99.7
100.1
99.7
[3101.0
98.9
99.7
99.5
99.9
99.4
100.1
99.0
99.1
98.3
97.9
99.1
rlOO.4
r99.3
r99.9
p99.2
(1957-59-100)
103*3
104! 3
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.0
105 '.8
••.
©104*.7
•..
105 .*8
106 ."5
107.1
•..
106*6
...
107*1
108^3
0108.3
65. Book value 66. Consumer 67. Bank rates
of mfrs. 1 ininstallment on short-term
ventories of
debt
business
loans, 19
finished goods,
all manufaccities*
turing indus.
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
(Mil. dol.)
Revised1
53.1
53.6
53.9
54.1
54.3
54.4
54.4
54.4
54.6
54.4
54.3
53.8
17.2
17.4
17.7
17.8
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.4
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.5
38,940
39,445
39,874
40,346
40,657
40,962
41,26?
41,503
41,788
41,888
42,036
42,139
53.7
53.7
53.5
53.4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1
18.4
.18.4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
©18.3
•18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8
42,109
/*2,035
42,041
©41,867
41,870
41,895
41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,43?
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
Glp59.4
19.9
19.9
20.0
20.1
20.1
20.3
20.4
20.6
020.8
p20.6
(*L)
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
®51,9U
Oft)
*Soo "Now Features and Changes For This Issues," page ii.
s
lat quarter 1964, anticipated. 2nd quarter 1964 anticipated figure is 41.70.
(m)
(Percent)
5l34
5*33
4.97
•*.
4.99
4^97
4*.97
4*99
<£>4'.96
4*98
• • i
s'.oi
*.•
«..
4.99
[H]5*02
5. '56
5.01
5.01
Basic Data
27
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification nonly and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r indicates
revised; "p'», preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments ,
total
87. General
imports ,
total
88. Merchandise
trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess,
receipts(+)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
82. Federal cash
payments
to the
public
83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
publ ic
84. Federal cash
surplus (+)
or deficit (-)
95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product acct.
^nn.rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) bil.dol. ) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil. dol.)
1960
January
March
April
May
July
September
October
November
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
.+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,654.8
1,812.1
1,674.4
1,802.6
1,782.1
1,838.3
1,728,9
1,687.3
1,943.3
1,492.8
1,695.2
1,838.9
1,327.4
1,315.4
1,339.3
1,363.8
1,386.4
1,342.4
1,361.8
1,364.2
1,476.4
1,318.9
1,431.7
1,371.9
+327.4
+496.7
+335.1
+438.8
+395.7
+495.9
+367.1
+323.1
+466.9
+173.9
+263.'5
+467.0
982.2
2,130.7
1,990.8
1,918.1
1,900.5
1,813.6
1,779.4
1,896.6
1,991.6
1,899.2
(NO
1,093.2
1,493.2
1,484.3
1,423.3
1,406.2
1,410.2
1,469.2
1,532.5
1,452.8
1,475.0
-111.0
+637.5
+506.5
+494-8
+494.3
+403.4
+310.2
+364.1
+538.8
+424.2
(NO
-775
•. .
-831
-1,018
1
-1,257
89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.0
96.3
89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
101.4
99.5
0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
-0.6
+3.2
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
116.5
106.5
116.0
117.3
116.1
r!07.2
126.1
118.4
122.2
125.4
111.9
107.7
109.8
106.9
110.1
113.9
112.2
114.9
116.1
112.4
115.4
112.3
-8.8
+3.3
-9.1
-7.2
-2.2
r+5.0
-11.2
-2.3
-9.8
-10.0
+0.4
+8.2
+5.2
+i!Z
-l\2
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,488
1,397
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
-472
2
+3i
-655
-1,274
-6. "6
-5.*4
-4^0
-2^5
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,589
1962
April
May
July
August
October
-585
-452
-356
-793
-5 '.6
-3 16
-3^6
-5 3
1,872
1,211
1,254
1,831
1,182
1,325
1,934
1,386
1,037
1,805
1,755
1,022
1963
March
April
May
June
July
August
September ......
(NO
r-865
r-1,239
r-256
Includes single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
2
-4^6
-3^6
-i.'s
1,732
1,228
1,023
1,275
1,594
1,392
1,417
1,713
1,218
2,186
(NO
28
Basic Data
Table t.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only aM do
nou reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back eover. The "r" indi«atoa
revised; M p M , preliminary; "en, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
Year and
month
92. Military prime
contract
awards to
U.S. business firms
85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money
supply
98. Percent 93. Free
change in reserves*
money supply and
time deposits
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol. ) ( Percent ) (Percent) (Mil. dol.)
81. Index
of consumer
prices
94. Index 96. Mfrs.1
of conunfilled
struction orders ,
contracts , durable
total
goods invalue
dustries
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
1960
March
April
May
July
September
November
1961
January
March.. . . „
April
,
May
June
July
August
September,
October. .......
November. ......
December
1962
January
February
April
May
«...
July
August
October
,. . .
December. .......
1963
February
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
December. ..... ,
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
+0.21
40.36
-fO.07
40.07
-0.14
40.28
-0.14
-0.38
-0.10
-0.00
-0.05
-0.05
+0.53
40.67
40.38
40.47
40.28
40.52
-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
4-37
4-120
4-247
4414
+480
+614
+669
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
111
120
49.25
48.25
46.87
45.93
45,16
44-74
44.18
44.51
44.64
43.89
43.59
43.40
3,6U
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,476
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
+0.14
+0.28
4-0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
+0.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
43.01
42.94
42.52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.35
43-86
44.H
44.52
45.17
4,488
3,990
3,914
4,402
4,126
4,019
5,026
4,623
3,968
4,914
4,936
3,785
3,073
2,135
2,225
1,885
1,808
1,808
2,068
2,488
2,242
3,089
3,154
1,758
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0,68
+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+U9
+473
+268
304.7
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.4
105.5
105.6
105.9
105.9
105.9
10.5.8
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
H7
123
138
45. SO
46.42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44 . 58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
4,714
4,050
3,593
4,031
4,682
4,357
5,019
4,871
4,254
5,615
2,390
2,674
2,157
1,786
2,165
1,962
2,572
3,213
2,859
2,303
(ML)
+0.54
-0.07
+0.20
+0.34
0.00
+0.27
+0.60
-0.13
+0.27
+0.73
P+0,66
+0.98
+0.44
+0.72
+0.52
+0.44
+0.47
+0.75
+0.39
+0,51
+0.93
p+1.03
+384
+300
+271
+313
+248
+141
+158
+137
+92
+96
p+42
106.2
106.2
106.3
106.2
106,4
106,7
107.1
107.2
106.9
107.1
(NA)
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
(Nil)
"Now Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
(Bil.dol. )(Oil. dol.)
Revised
3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,999
3,357
4,109
3,583
(NA)
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.24
P46.78
7*93
7.6H
7.27
7*02
•. •
6.68
•* *
6.55
6.58
6*1?
6.82
6'a.i
•• •
6*B7
7 ".29
** •
7.* 06
r?!51
p8*.27
Basic Data
29
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*).- Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by (hQ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and MNA", not available.
Internationa]L comparisons of industria'L production
1
121. OECD,
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
Year and
month
(1957-59=
100)
1960
March
April
May
Julv
August
October
November.** .....
1961
July
April
Mav
July
SApterahpr . m . T t ,
November
ppftprrib^T'T - . » » f *
1963
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
1QO)
' (1957-59=
100)
m'
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59*
100)
Revised2
106
111
112
114
113
114116
118
116
116
117
118
118
109
109
110
112
112
111
111
112
112
112
110
l
112
>
109
107
108
105
105
105
104
104
105
105
105
105 '
112
111
110
110
110
110
109
109
108
107 ;
105 '
104 i
113
113
115
115
116
118
118
115
118
120
120
122 i
107
108
108
110
110
111
112
112
116
114
116
114
T 0*5
129
1 96
196
117
119
119
120 !
119
120
120
119
120 i
121 :1
122
123
109
110
110 '
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
103
103 i
104 !
107
109
111 !
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
129
128
132
133
136
138
141
143
143
146
147
148
122
12/
12*3
108
110
111
110
122
1/Q
1 61
11Q
J-47
1 *\1
1 63
J
12 A.
125
1 9/
1 25
126
127
111
:
110
113 ;
113 •
111 I
110 <
109 :
109
109
July
113
\\L
116
1 97
110
113
110
126
126
126
130
130
110
111
113
114
115
115
rl!7
117
p!18
(NA)
r!30
r!30
n!33
•
113
11 /
128
127
1 39
October
(1957-59=
100)
125. West
Germany ,
index of
industrial
production
122
l?3
123
1 DQ
1 1n
11 3
113
11 /
TO/
126
i
127
197
116
11 Q
i
126
19Q
121
122
!
'
:
112
!
:
i
:
!
113 !
112
114 ;
115 !
116
i
^
i
i
'
:
;
February
February
March
April....
May
(1957-59*
100)
47. United
States .
index of
industrial
production
.
March
April
Mav
1962
122. United 123. Canada,
Kingdom,
index of
index of
industrial
industrial production
production
(M)
113
11C
116
116
117
118
118
11 Q
119
119
120
120
120
121
122
T 0-3
1 ?/
1 9/
126
l?Q
1 96
128
117
118
118
118
•MO
11 Q
120
11Q
120
119
11Q
120
121
122
i ?/
126
[
I?/
133
132
129
128
132
133
133
139
rl33
126
1 9£
1 9A
1 36
127
pi 27
n!37
' (W.}
193
}?3
126
1P6
126
128
122
_,-! OC
123
I?/
1?Q
1 3O
110
1 31
132
132
1 93
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue,n page ii.
2
116
116
1 QC
?
V
f NA ^
i in
1 69
1 y C>
i ^n
1!?U
1 C1
151
151
i <n
150
1 J Q
14V
i J?n
IpU
128
126
1 61
1/Q
160
T 63
168
160
127
158
1 ?7
117
1?Q
1 31
-| q/
i on
166
162
1/.Q
1 69
1 3D
-LjU
1 oo
-i J f
nl 37
(m\
{m. }
rl67
rl67
166
rl63
1 CC
_n Lf\
(JTA\
i *^n
1 1 Q
-L47
1y Q
148
1 69
1 6ft
1 6fl
1 ^Q
1 A^
-i £A
•i r)*"*
pl
fU
^WA ^;
^JMA.
Analytical Measures
30
Table 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually 'fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as riser, (see scries 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the sigru; are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as -K).6.
Series
Avg.
Measure change
of
1953change 1963
x
1963
June
to
July
Mar.
to
Apr.
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June
-1.0
+7.9
+1.1
0.0
+1.0
-7.3
0.0 -0.2
+2.6
+2.6
-2.0
-0.4
+5.6 -11.8
July
to
Aug.
Aug. Sept. Get.
to
to
to
Sept. Get. Nov.
No>
t<
Dot
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
6.
24,
9.
10.
Accession rate, manufacturing
Ncnagri. placements, all industries,..
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
Av|j. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted).
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable poods industries
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment industries...
Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings..
Contracts and orders for plant and
Percent . . 0.5
..do
4.9
..do.... 1.8
..do
9.5
See footnotes at end of table.
0.0
0.0
-0.3
XA
-2.6
f
+8 . ) -7.9
+5.6
m
+2.3
-52.9
-3.1
+0.3
-0.3
+0,7
+0,3
+0.4
+2.B
-a. a
+0.4 -:u
+1.4
-1,6
-5.7
+3.4
-6.6
+6.9
+1.9
••>4 . f}
4.5
+4.0
+2.1
-3.8
+1.2
-0.6
+3.3
+4.1
-7.9
9.7
-2.7
. +1.2
-6.1
+20.5
Nil
-0.5
+2.6
+7.0
W
-35.2 +40.4
..do
17.8
..do
5.3
-4.0
..do
3.8
..do
..do
4.9 '+5.9
..do
11, Newly approved capital appropriations,
31.2
602 manufacturing corporations3
..do
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
7.3 +2.6
..do
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits..., ..do..... 3.8 -1.4
12. Net change in business population,
Thous . . * * 2
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent.. 2.7 -2,2
14. Current liabilities of business
+4.0
16.9
failures ( inverted) .. ....
*.... ...do
15. No. of business failures with liabil13.1
ities of $100,000 and over (inv.).... ..do
+2.4
7.7
..do
16. Corporate profits after taxes3
0.7 -0.2
17. Price per unit of labor cost index, mf g. ...do
.
13. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
7.7
.do* .
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income3
5.8
originating, corporate, all Indus. .. ..do
2.6 +4.7
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
..do
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm3 and Ann. rate,
nonfarm, after val. adjustment ^. . . .bil.dol. 2.5
31. Change In book value of mfg. and
3.6 +0.3
..do
20. Change In book value of mfrs.1 inventories, materials and supplies4
1.5 +0.7
..do
37. Purchased materials, percent reportPercent. . 6.8 +6.5
ing higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
5.8 -1.9
report, commitments 60 days or more.. ..do
32. Vendor performance, percent report7.7 +11.1
..do
25. Change In mfrs.' unfilled orders,
Bil. dol. 0.48 -0.09
23. Index of industrial materials prices.. Percent.. 1.3 +0.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagrleul0.3 +0.3
tural establishments
..do
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,
0.4 +0.4
..do
labor force survey
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
4.1 -1.1
40* Unemploy. rate, married males (Inv.).. ..do
5.5 +3.7
45. Avg. weekly Insured unemployment rate,
4.8 +3.9
..do
State programs ( inverted )
-1.6
-0.2 +1 .0
-7.5 +5,4
-0.6
+3.2
-5.3 +10.0
+26.6 +12.6 -17.0
+8.3
-7,0
-1.5
+22.7
+25.4 -39.0
+18.9
0.0
-2.3
+1.2
-8.8
+1B.3
+5.9
+2.2
-4.5
-3.2
+8.5
+3.6
-3.4
+1
+3.3
-1.5
-1.0
0.0
+5.5
-3.9
+6.0
,m
-36.3
+26.9 -59.2
-35.0 +29.6
+5.5
+i'.6
+1.5
0.0 -10.5
+2.6
-i.'i -1,3
+7.6
+4.4
+2.0
+59.0 -58.5
-4.8
+4.8 -16.0
-1.8 477.5
0.0 +13.6
+0.8
-o.a
+1.2
+2.6
+0.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
-1.5
0.0
+2,8
-0.1
-0.8
+1.6
-0.2
+0.6
-3.9
+3.6
+2.8
Nil
-1.2
+1.0
+0.5
+0.8
-2.4
+1.6
Nil
-3.5
-9.1
+16.3
+a
0.0
0.0 -10.0
-6.7
-1.9
+9.6
-5.3
+1.9
+1.8
-5.4
+1.9
-3.3
-6.9
-22.2
+14.3
+8.3
-7.7
0.0
+0.04 +0.50 +0.41
0.0 -0.1
+0.3
-0.20
-0.52 -0.91
+0.7
-1.4
+2.3
-0.63
+1.0
+0.3
+0.2
+0.3
0.0
+0.2
+0.3
+0.1
-0.3
-4.6
0.0
+0,1
+4.2
+7.4
+0.7
+0.9
-0.6
-0.1
+2.3
+5.7
+0.2
-1.3
+1.4
-0,1
+0.7
+0.3
0.0
-6, 2
-8.9
+1.0
+0.5
+1.2
-1.5
+3.4
-0.8
-3.2
+0
-1.
Analytical Measures
31
Table 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Confinued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
Avg.
Measure change,
of
1953- Mar.
change
to
1963 x
Apr,
1963
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June
June
to
July
July
to
Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.
Oct.
to
Nov.
Nov.
to
Dec.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
50* Gross national product in 1954 dol. ••
49. Gross national product in cur. dol.3..
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 2.1)3.....
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.,
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
Percent . .
..do
..do
..do
..do'..... •
..do
. . do
1.5
0.5
..do
. . do
+1 7
+1 0
-1 3
+1 0
+1 6
+0 6
-2 3
-0 6
+1 2
+1.6
+1.6
12
+0 1
+7 2
+0 6
+0 7
+0 2
+4.9
+0.6
-4 3
+1 6
+0 8
+1.4
+1.5
-2.2
+0 6
-2.1
+0 5
+8.1
+0 3
-3.8
+0.2
+3.9
+0 5
+1.8
+0 8
-3.0
+0 1
0.8
0.8
+1.4
-0.4
+1 2
-0.4
+0.7
+1.4
0.0
+1.1
+0.2
-0.3
+0 7
-1 2
+0 7
+1 6
00
-0 8
. . do
0.2
-0.3
+0.3
+0.3
+0.1
+0.1
-0 2
+0 3
-0 1
..do
3.6
..do
0.6
. .do
1.0
3L
11
14
1.9
1.6
+0 "
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
+3.0
5
+5.1
+l 9
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
63., Index of labor cost per unit of output total GNP3
64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories, all
.. do .....
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
. . do
67. Bank rates on short-term business
..do
loans, 19 cities3
+0.1
-0.8
-0.4
+1.2
-1.1
+0.6
+0.3
+0.5
M
+1.0
+0.7
-1.0
+1 0
m
-0.9 -4.6
-1.2
+0.3
-0.5 -90.9
+5.0
-4.6
-1.9 +6.6
-5.2
+4.2
+1.5
+4.3
-93.2 +53.9 +174.7 -114.6
M
0.5
+0.3
+0.3
+0.3
+0.3
0.8
0.8
+0.5
+1.1
0.0
+0.9
+1.0
+1.0
+0.5
+1.0
3.0
+1.3
-0.7
0.0
+1.1
+0.2
0.0
+1.0
+1.0
NA
0.0
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship87. General imports total
88. Merchandise trade balance^.
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
4.6 -3.7
. . do
3.!6 -4.1
..do
Mil. dol. 59.5 -11.7
. .do
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . .
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
Ann. rate
b 11. dol.
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
286
5.7
+1.1
-374
-1.0
-7.7
+17.6
5.4
+3.0
+3.5
-1.5
5.5
+1.9
+5.0
2.5
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . .26.9
15.1
. .do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to
26.2
..do
85. Change in money supply excluding time
0.23
..do
Mil. dol. 107
Percent. . 0.2
7.0
94, Index of construe, contracts, total... ..do
1.5
96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, dur. goods.... ..do
6.3
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg.3. ..do
98. Change in money supply including time
4
0.21
..do..
.
.
.
deposits . ...
lf
m
NA
+3.2
+2.4
+983
-6.1
+1.0
-3.2
+2.6
+2.7
-10.8
-2.7
+7.2
-16.2
+8.9
-7.5
-0.2
+10.4
+1.6
+24.6 +25.0 -12.7
+16.1
+12.2
-6.9
+1.8
+15.2
+1.2
+20.9 -28.9
-2.9 -12.7
+79.5
+32.0
NA
N&
-17.2
+21 . 2 -9.4
+31.1
+24.9 -11 0 -19 4
1ft
+0.14
-0.34 +0.27 +0.33 -0.73 +0.40 +0.46 -0.07
-54
-45
-21
-107
+4
+17
-65
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
-0.3
+0.1
+0.2
NA
+4.8
+15.2
NA
-3.0 +14.1
-6.7
-6.3
-1.2
+0.7
-1.1 -0.1
+0.8
-1.0
+0.4
+6.4
+10.1
+42
-0.1
+5.9
+1.8
-0.20
-0.08 +0.03 +0.28 -0.36 +0.12
+0 42 +0 10
rhis average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
2
among the series, covering 1953-63 for most monthly series and 1948-62 for most quarterly series.
Percehtage changes
3
cover part of this period only.
Quarterly series; figures show change from previous quarter and are placed In middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNP (series 49) shown in the Apr.-May column refers to the change from the
4
1st quarter of 1963 to the 2nd quarter of 1963.
Figures are the month^to-month (<juarter-to-quarter) differences in
5
the figures shown in table 1.
Anticipated. Percent change from 4th quarter 1963 to 1st quarter 1964, and
from 1st quarter to 2nd quarter 1964, based on anticipated data, are 0.0 and +2.3, respectively.
Analytical Measures
32
Table ^.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates—
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1957
July
1953
3d month before business cycle poak
May
1960
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1953
Apr .
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
12
1
7
1
3
1
4
1
22
1
* **
2
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
!18
0
3
219
16
11
1
14
2
1
3
2
1
3
4
2
2
3
1
1
4
1
23
0
23
0
1
18
0
4
19
21
2
20
i
1
1
23
0
12
1
*1
2
1
3
2
1
23
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
3
1
2
1
1
1
3
1
2
1
*. *
4
1
2
Benchmark month
1
11
9
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
2
3
3
11
27
5
11
45
my
1948
Jan.
1953
1
"X
"i
2
2
3
2
3
11
27
Nov.
1959
1
4
4
11
36
4
4
11
36
6th month before business cycle peak
Jan.
1957
1
1
"a
3
3
11
27
"3
6
11
55
Current expansion
Aug.
1963
Sept.
1963
Oct.
1963
I Nov.
1963
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
6
1
4
2
? months
,
Benchmark month
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
2
1
*18
6
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
2
19
16
17
1
1
1
1
1
1
23
4
4
4
4
2
4
1
2
2
23
9
10
1
"i
9
9
"i
2
2
1
3
2
3
4
2
23
9
2
5
23
22
"a
"I
i
6
2
"i
"i
i
23
35
4
1
16
6
3
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
1
1
3
3
3
3
4
4
11
36
"i
1
4
11
36
1
7
11
64
X
3
4
11
36
** •
5 months
4 months
»
„
4
2
4
2
1 month
Benchmark montl
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
5
11
45
2
3
6
11
55
5
3
11
27
2
3
11
27
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from1 the distribution.
5 series were not available.
2
2 series we;re not available and 2, series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
Analytical Measures
33
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percentage
Dl. Av, workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. {21 indus,)
[3-mo. interval ]
Expanding
D6. New orders/ dur. goods indus. {36 indus.)
[5-mo. interval ]
D11, Newly approved capital appropriations:;;;.;^:
*•::•.;.•:••..
>—'* 602 cos. [4-quarter interval ]
._*. 15 Indus. [1-quarter interval]
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting ^i
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval jk-
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval Jj&jvjv.
:-. »:»
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus,)
[3-mo. interval ]
D23,
Industrial materials prices (13 Indus, mtls.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur
(47 areas)--inverted
[5-mOo interval ]
^.iifiJ,, Ml..!,.!., ,.(.,!..I., ..(..l^r::»*,,!,.I
1948
1949
1950
195T 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
34
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percentage
Expending
{Aug.)
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments {30 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
D47. Industrial production (24 Indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo, intervalj
x"":
D54* Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[5-mo. interval ]
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959 1960 1961
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
CHART 3 |
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
35
DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
Actual
Anticipated
_.
D35. Net sales, all mfrs. (800 cos.
[4-quarter interval]
Change in total carloadings
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs. (400 cos.)
[4-quarter interval ]
D48. Carloadings (19 mfrd. commodity groups)*
[4-quarter interval ]
D61. New plant and equipment expend.J17-22 indus.)
[1-quarter interval ]
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955
1956 1957 1958
1959
1960
1961
Data are centered within intervals, Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (Oct. 1963)
D48 (September 1963)
D61 (November 1963)
Latest interval shown
Actual
3 r d Q 1962- 3rd Q 1963
4th Q 1961 - 4th Q 1962
2nd Q 1963 - 3rd Q 1963
Anticipated
1st Q 1963- 1st Q 1964
4t!iQ 1962 4th Q 1963
4th Q 1963- I s t Q 1964
increase of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1962 1963
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month arid 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are u«ed except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index*
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. Tiie "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"MA.", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year and
month
3 -month
interval
1-month
interval
5 -month
interval
40.5
14.3
35.7
35.7
81.0
19.0
50.0
31.0
19.0
83.3
7.1
7.1
38.1
H.3
19.0
59.5
45.2
64.3
14.3
16.7
31.0
7.1
4.8
23*6
Revised1
27.8
41.7
41.7
61.1
46.6
37.5
41.7
52.8
47.2
33.3
44.4
58.3
Revised1
34.7
54.2
31.9
48.6
55.6
51.4
41.7
37.5
30.6
41.7
23.6
33.3
95.2
71.4
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8
66.7
95.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
7S.6
88.1
54.8
97.6
85.7
81.0
26.2
33.3
48,6
66.7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3
52.8
72.2
72.2
72.2
77.8
83.3
66.7
69.4
62.5
72.2
70.8
80.6
14.3
73.8
73. B
76.2
21.4
28. 6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5
21.4
59.5
88.1
78.6
40.5
21.4
21.4
59.5
35.7
33.1
31.0
73.8
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
43.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
63.9
68.1
66.7
41.7
46.6
37.5
36.1
52.8
52.8
52.8
75.0
77.8
71.4
64.3
31.0
52.4
54.8
78.6
47.6
r59.5
r69.0
P59.5
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
72.2
P52.8
66.7
75.0
73.6
55.6
56.9
50.0
41.7
51.4
P47.2
1-month
interval
1960
February. .*....
March
April* . *
1&y
„
July,
September.,
October
November, •*«=...,.,.
1)6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)
Dll* Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 com- b. 15 induspanies
tries
4-quarter
interval
** .
44
*40
*40
» •» •
"43
1-quarter
interval
56.7
33!5
•• *
23*.3
•. •
66*/7
1)33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies)
1-month
interval
46
36
40
44
42
44
39
34
34
34
2B
30
1961
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
54.8
„, ..
*. *
81,0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73. a
1962
January
February
»
April
May
June
„
July
46.7
*54
53^3
*53
7Q.'6
'64
56\7
*52
66.7
54
26*7
*52
80.0
'48
60.6
r54
27
31
37
46
50
4B
42
51
50
47
50
44
4*
49
'JO
52
52
4S
40
46
4r)
42
44
43
1963
February* ......
March
April.
May
July
,. .
August* ........
September
October
X
52.4
73.3
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
42.9
66.7
r57.1
P42.9
3©e *Nev Features and Changes For This Issue,* page ii.
40.0
55
63*3
60.0
46
46
45
46
50
46
42
50
4448
47
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY I960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes— Continued
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks1
(around 700
(80 industries)
corporations)
Year and
month
1-quarter
interval
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3 -mo nth
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22nd
(47 areas)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
1960
52
•* •
fkpcn
April
May
*40
JUly
*45
October
*47
December
1961
47
March
April
*60
Ntoy
July
*58
'56
November
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9 .
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
34.0
54.8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
59.6
63.8
14.9
11.7
17.0
14.9
26.6
23.4
20.2
21.3
57.4
31.9
87.0 96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
•81.1 •
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70,7
57.3
57.9
•54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
57.4
59.6
61.7
66.0
68.1
66.0
61.7
93.6
93.6
68.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
79.2
62.5
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
48.9
22.3
63.8
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.4
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
88.0
62.5
54.4
60.2
74*4
55.7
58.3
66.7
46.2
50.0
46.2
65-4
34.6
46.2
50.0
73.1
69.2
2
61.5
50.0
58.3
50.0
53.8
34.6
38.5
38.5
34-6
61.5
69.2
S
80.8
36.2
87.2
47.9
44.7
48.9
71.3
46.8
55.3
36.2
66.0
38.3
63.8
44.7
53.2
83.0
46.8
53.2
57.4
66.0
40.4
1962
54
April. ..... .•. . .
*47
Nfev
'48
July
*56
1963
50
March
April
May
July
*
»
*59
*56
x
,
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January I960; on 85 components, February I960 to November I960;
on 82 components, December I960 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; and on 79 components
thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 22 components, are shown in the direetlon-ofchange table (table 6C).
Average for December ,16,. 17,* and -18, 19631.
Analytical Measures
38
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervale: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
TKUith and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally, adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla t D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
»NA" ( not available.
NBER Roughly Colhcldem indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees
in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D54, Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
5 -mo nth
interval
D38. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. Indus.)
1-month
interval,
I960
March
April
May. . . . ,
June «... <t
JUly, ,
October. , „
December. ......
1961
January, .......
March
April
May
,,....
„. . .
July
August
September. ..<..,
November .......
65.0
80. G
46.7
53.3
35.0
23.3
35.0
35.0
23.3
30.0
IB. 3
13.3
85.0
71.7
56.7
43.3
33.3
23,3
23.3
26.7
33.3
25.0
18.3
20.0
58.3
39.6
75.0
54.2
39.6
45.8
25.0
33.3
27.1
20.8
45.0
33.3
61.7
56.7
86.7
88.3
70.0
70,0
56.7
71.7
81.7
63.3
15.0
40.0
43.3
78.3
85.0
90.0
90,0
66.7
80.0
80.0
78.3
76.7
55.0
80. Q
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
43.0
33.3
43.3
78.3
88.3
88.3
80.0
73.3
65.0
51.7
38.3
35.0
26.7
28,3
43.3
63.3
43 .3
S3. 3
66.7
85.0
61.7
75.0
48.3
r45.0
r65.0
p51.7
53.3
65.0
71.7
B3.3
78.3
75.0
60.0
r50.0
r48.3
P48.3
45. a
75.0
43.8
41.7
68.8
66.7
66.7
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20.8
47.9
43.8
45.8
89.6
4.2
66.7
45.8
45.8
45. S
79.2
22.9
37.5
77.1
43.8
39.6
52.1
50.0
18.8
56.3
37.5
35.4
50.0
43. a
60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
43.4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7
45.8
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.3
72.9
83.3
56.3
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
a.?
58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4
43.8
43. S
64.6
62.5
64.6
56.3
83.3
87.5
95.8
81.3
S3. 3
83. 3
38.6
41.3
54.6
59.7
49.1
51-9
50.4
52.1
55.9
/J.4
41.2
29.2
S3. 3
83.3
75.0
83.3
62.5
54.2
58.3
79.2
29.2
54.2
41.7
50.0
66.7
91.7
83.3
70.8
79.2
68.8
79.2
41.7
62.5
45.8
58.3
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
85.4
93.3
89. 6
70. 8
81.3
79.2
70.8
54.2
95.8
95.8
81.3
79.2
6A.7
43.5
61 .1
46.7
68.6
47.6
33.0
30.3
36.3
39.0
45.6
35.9
54.2
81.3
83.3
91.7
87.5
83.3
S7.5
r72.9
r58.3
P54-2
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
r62.5
p54.2
70.8
20. a
n.i
1962
March
April
»
May
June
July
„
August. ........
September
October
December
1963
January
February. ......
March
April
*
May.
June
July
September
October
December
66.7
68.8
72.9
62.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
62.5
r47.9
r58.3
P52-1
81.3
56.3
45.8
58.3
62.5
75.0
r66.7
r70.8
p60.4
38.6
a. 3
50.3
46.7
73.0
69.3
41.7
52.1
r5B.l
r76.0
p69.5
Analytical Measures
39
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Year and
month
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
D48. Freight car load ings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D61. New plant and
quipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
Antici- Change in
pated total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
75.0
84.4
7l!9
71.9
.* .
56.2
71.9
34.4
4X8
28.1
37.5
46! 9
53il
56.2
62.5
59*.4
65.6
65.6
•* .
62.5
...
68.8
68*. 8
65^6
•• •
65.6
46.9
68^8
40.6
50.0
65*.6
75.0
75.0
71*. 9
1960
*61
*58
•• •
76
51
31.6
•• .
68il
*68
31^6
78^9
.• •
-103
•• •
+96
..•
*53
*82
•• •
•. *
74
*50
70
•• •
50
68
2l!l
50.0
-279
60
*68
•. *
62
•• •
68
26.3
.• •
42.1
-212
72
*82
•. .
*72
*78
•»*
36!8
•. •
89^5
-28
*74
•. *
*83
*73
*78
68*4
73.7
+79
*82
*88
*82
•* •
86
87.5
89.5
+125
"si
*86
*78
*82
63^2
89! 5
+62
"so
*88
76
*84
57.9
94.7
...
-67
76
*80
*74
*74
63.2
89.5
1%
...
•• •
•72
•• •
74
*• •
71
*TO
(NA)
68^4
-66
.* *
November.
74
*82
'76
76
63 !5
+28
1963
January
February
*76
*80
77
*76
7S.*9
+38
'so
*76
68.4
r+101
*84
'so
March
April
May
July
September
1961
February
March
April. .........
May
July
ppptpmheTt - t - T f
November
1962
February
April
May
July
August
April
May
July
r75.0
^sii
1
lst quarter 1964.
Toble 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT
A.-(Dl) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
3 -month spans
1-oonth spans
1962
1963
1962
1963
21 industry components
-
a o
8
Percent rising.
All manufacturing industries.
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products.
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and allied products...
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products.
Petroleum and coal products...
Rubber products
Leather and leather products..
4- « rising; o » unchanged; - « falling.
8
8
2
36 43 81 7 60 60 52 74 40 17 81 43 45 43 67 57 43
O
_
4-
_
4-
£
4- 4- 4- - -
-
O
-
o o + o - +
+
o o
Q
4_
4-
_
O
O
44-
44O
4+
4O
4+
4- 4- -
44-
44-
o
_
44O
_
O
O
+
O
4+
+
-
+ - - - 0
O O
_ 4 - - 4 - o
+
- +
44-
+
4-
44+
4-
44O
-
4-
4- o
- O
4- 4- o
- O +
-
_
+ + o + +
O +
o -
4O
44-
_
o
-
-
-
4O
4" -
4-
44-
44-
_
4-
+
+
+
+
o
44-
0
4-
o
+
*
+
4-4-4-4-4+
+
o
44-
4-
4 - - - - 0
4-
4-
4-
_
+
4-4-4-
_
-
+
+
- o - + - c
-
fi
21 21 60 36 38 31 74 71 64 31 52 55 79 48 60 69 60
-
_ _ 4 - o + - - e
a
-
o
0 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
--
+
-
_
+
4 - - - -
+
-4-
+
„ „ + _ „ _
4-
+
4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - G
40
4-
4+
44o
44-
444-
-
4-
o
-
-
- 40 0
+
-
- o - - -
0
-
0
0
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 0 -
-
-
4-
4-
-
- 4- 4o + - 4- o - - + 4- o
- + + - 4- 4- 44- - - o O + +
4444-
44r
_
444-
+
+
4-
0 0 4 - ^
_
_
4-
O
4-
44-
+
+
+
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
2
WJ
g
g
Table 6.-D1RECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.--(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
1-month spans
1962
36 industry components
rH
;3
*->
I
C
;3
•~3
tUJ
£J
D.
<U
5-month spans
1963
-P
O
>
O
< W O 2:
i
1
I
I
.H fafl CU -P
;3 ;d <y o
"~3 "^J co o
0
Q)
Q
I
>
o
'z*
C f Q ^ ^ p ^ C i - l b O P w - P ^ O
t ) Q J J l l O w l^ l ^ 3 ^ < U y
O Q J
kC
- 3 f e * S < : s : - ^ ^ . < - c
i
I
}
i
i
i
i
i
i
o c , a ^ ^ > i C ; i - H b D f t
<utrt
Q)j3lP^jil
^J * ^ : b
Q t - 3 E i H S < i ; S l 1 - 3 t - 3 <
o o £ : Q
t
i
i
- t - > >
< u o o
C O O 2 ;
57 36 49 68 50 47 64 43 54 64 53 47 51 53 53 72 53
Primary metals:
+
+
_
_ - + - - +
- - + + - + + - + - -
+
+
1963
1962
+ + -+
+ + - + -_
+ - + _ _ _
+ - h +
+ + +
+ + •*-
r-t
bD
Ou
-P
>
O
gi 4i «1 <s1 s.1 a1
•8 3 &, & § "3
Pt,
S
<!
Si
»-3
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
»-3
4-9 3S 36 53 53 53 75 78 67 75 74 56 57 50 42 51 47
— — + •+•
- - _ +
+ + - +
. _ _ »
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+ +
-++ +
-
+ + + + -+ + + + +
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
Fabricated metal products:
Hardware, structural metal and wire products.
+ - ' * ' -
+
+ - - • + • _ - + --•*• + - + - . - _
+ + - + - _ - + --(-- + + _ + + -
+
+.+.+-
+
OO
+
- -
+
+
+ + .+
Machinery, except electrical:
Construction, mining and material handling*..
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
- + -
+
+
_
-
*
_
o
+
_
- _
Special industry machinery*
o
+
„
+
_ +
-
-
+
+
+
- - . - * • + •!•
-f
_ + -+-_
+ •*••*-•*•
+
•+• +
-f
-
+
-t-
+
- +
+
+
- ( - - _
+
+ -J-
++ --Z o ++ - t +l -+• *! • +- +t -»-t
-
Electrical machinery:
+
+
+
-
+
-
_
+
-
+
- +
- + - - - t - _ - t - - f + + -h
+ --_
+ + + + - + - + -*---»• + - } - - _ + -
- + -*--
+
- - - - * • - +
+
_ +
-
o
+
+ +
- +
- . - + +.
_ _ - _ _ + _
+
-»+
+ + + + +
- - + _ +
+
- - _ + +
^ 0 + +
- - _ - » - _
- + + - + +
- + - + --
+
__
+ + _
+ + + + + + +
+
+
+ -t- + +
+
+ + + + + + + _ _ +
+ - + + + + - + - +
+
+
+
- - - + +
+
-
+
+ +
+
-
+
, +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + -f
- - - - - -
+ +
+ + _
+ + + - - -
Transportation equipment:
-
-h
•+•
— +
+
-•*-
-*+
+
- + -
-h
-t-
+
+
-t-
Instruments , total
-
-t-
-
+
+
o -
-
0
-H
+
- o
+
-
_
+
+
_
-h
_ _ +
+ _ +
+
+
+
+
_
_
^ ^ +
-(- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
mined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
•+-
+
before the direction of change
is deter-
0
Analytical Measures
42
o3a-dSS
»i2
\3
H
I
a.
o
I
AO^-§nv
tfN
4QQ -"[T\f
^-
4
^ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
dag-unf
Snv-tow
O
4
^+ + 1 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 +
^+
^ 4 + i + l + l
+ 4 » + + 4 l +
T"f-Jdv
<M
^4+ ' + ' + 1
++ '
utvf-jt^w
CO
&1A-W
0
JdV-UBf
ON
A
8
il "
4
4 1 4 4 4 1 4 4
t +
1
"4
4.444.4444
4 4 4 4 4 ' 4 4
4 4 4 1 4 4 4 4
+ ' +
+44
1 1 4 4 4
<*5
4
^ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
5K
«W-oaa
qg^-AON
UBf-%30
O^
&
4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
^
4
4 4 1
4 4 4 4 4 4 1 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
H
1
I 4 I I I I 4 4
I 4 I I I I I 4 4 4 4 D 4 I J 4
to
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
|
1
1
.1
1
1
1
1 4 1
1
t
t
t
1
H
1
t
t
1
I
1
1
1
1
t
1
1
1
1
1
t
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
©8Q-dag
AON-SW
3 ^£l^L
H
uj
Hl~~~-
ILI
m
u.
o
^nf-adv
1 4 4 4 4
1
1
09(1- AON
h3C
40Q-d3g
^d-l
-4
VA+
^ 4 4 1 4 1 1 4
&
^ 4 1 4 1 4 1 1
d9S-Snv
Bnv-iRf
f> +
O
^\ +
^ 4 4 4 4 + 44
E5
^ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
O^l
.5
C V O
gj + +
AON-4SQ
Q.
Q
1l\£ -UTlf
<n
S
uj
.y
3
CL
unr-A'^i
^Tsw-Jdv
01
Jdv-jquI
J3W-Q3J
1
H
I I I 4 I I 4 4
1 4 4 4 ' l l t
4 4 4 4 4 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 4 4
44 + 4 + 4 + 4
1 (• 1 4
1
i
|
i
1 4 1
l l +
+
l
l
l
l
l
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
l
( 1 4 1 1 1 1 0
I + + I 4
4 4 4 1 1 f + +
00
*5
^ 4
^ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 +4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4
^ '
gj+l + 4 1 1 1
1 4 1 1 1 4 1 4
4 4 4 1 1 1 4 4
q^-utjf
8!
~
O
O
"*
1
4 ) 4 4 t l l l
£4
•fiS
s
l
1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4
O^
^4
4 . 4 4 4 4 4 +
+ 4 4 .
A0N-^oo
g. 4
4 4 4 4 , 4 4 4 4
4.44444.44
Wdag
d9S-3nv
ftl
vO
0*.
H
2
8
5
uuf-saa
ssa-AON
O
l
l
l
l
1 1 I o
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 0
1
1
l
1
1
mr-unr
M
8
I
o
u
t
Snv-tnf
u_
o
O
1 1 1 1 4 1 1 4
+ + + + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
. . . 1 . . « : . . & . . . §• p,
i
1
W
P*
+ » O
Q) CQ
H
p
* 4) W
gra^rt
C -P fX"—' >
•
•
^^
*>H
*^S
9
'H O *H ^3
£ . .o9
> cj C TO O
r * o o c o « n - p o o o Q H c c t
^>>C
fHpHT3<U
bfl-p9
Analytical Measures
f09Q-d9g
AON-9ny
+O0-inf
des-unf
r>
M
a
H
Sny-Jfow
tnf-jdv
unf-jsw
^BW-q9j
0
i
^
H
O I I + +
1 + + +
+ + I + +
l
l
i
JT\+
| + + l
+ | | + 1
1
1
1
00
1
| + | t
+ J 1 + +
|||
0 0
1
l + | +
i
(
+
+
1
|
+
+
i
l
(
|
+ 0 + +
l
+
0
+
l
t
+
x r v l
+
i
l o i +
^ +
+ 1 + + O I + + 1
1 0 1 +
Q
1
+ 1 + 1
O-3J + + I
I O 1 4 -
«W-Oad
•CO
1
+ + 1 1
O<!-f + +
( O I +
1
q^-AON
g
UBP-CI.OO
^ +
1
+
+ + + +
0
1
O
g + + +
1
t
I
l
1
l
09Q-d9g
E>
AON~3ny
I O +
+ + I +
O + I I +
+ I +
3- oQ "T^f
C N J +
l
O
+ O
1
l
° ^
+
l
l
I
+
l
O
l
+
l
O
O
+
I
I
+ +
I
I
I
+
(
O
i
l
1
1
1
+
1
O
1
1
das-unf
r a i
l l
Sny-^BVJ
c^
CV
l
inf-jdy
r v i
l o i t
o + + + +
1 0 1 1
T oaa-AON
C V +
0 + + +
+ I + + I
+ 0 1 1
+ + 1 +
O I O + +
+ 0 +
( + + +
O + I O l
IOI
CNi
1
vO
C ^ +
+
dacj-Sny
O
§ny-Xr,f
inf-unf
v O O
1 + + |
+ + ) + +
I
l
l
ITN+
o + l l
+ 1 1 + 1
1
1
1 +
unr-vC^
^BW-jdy
^g
1
+ + 1 +
+ > ' ! + +
1 0 + +
^O
+
o + + ' l
I O 1 +
0 | + | l
0 0 1 +
<n
r
ClJ
+ + I +
C N J +
jdy-UBf
AON-+OQ
^oo-dag
H
00
£ +
1
0^
(
( + +
jdy-^BW
O +
JBW-q9j
\O
1
1 1 1 +
OI+
q9J-UBf
g
i
( + + i
o^4--^-^
-p
C
1
r-1
+ +
IOI
l
+
+ o ' +
OO
I
+ + I +
O^+ + +
I
O
I
I
09Q-AOM
0 0
1
1 1 + +
0 ^ + + l
I
l
l
l
AON -^00
0 +
^oo-d^s
0 0 +
1 + 1 +
0 + 0 1 +
1 0 + +
dag-Sny
o
I
1 0 1 +
0 + 1 1 +
+ 0 + 1
C V +
+ o + l
O
+ O + I
UBf-09Q
CV
+ I + +
+
Sny-inr
Tnr-ur.f
+ + Q +
r - f l
l
»
+
)
0 + I
l
+ +
t
l
l
0 1 1 + +
+ 1 + 1
1
0
1
1
03
gC
1
.
01
•r-f
(U
iifi::
cd tifl
-301
$FH ><tf
a
T-f
-H
::::
ccj
bD
rH
C
(U
O
C
*H
•
-^
i l l !
i .
-^ •
-P
3
Pn<lJ
O Oj fn '""*•
M f-i O •
0 CO ^1
• ^> r-1 O CO
/^ i^x'^-' i—< P«
rH
O O
^QOi^rH
rH t—t ^-^>—••
>*--^-'
ft'Ofl>
OrH-HPrH
<U»r-l,Qr-t
5 ><-US c+O> E» HH
• H p O h O
CSIWOC^
•'"'O^fl)
WP5P5£-I
43
Analytical Measures
44
oaQ*tnr
AON-unf
-SIS^
Bny-JBH
u
to
(3
cd
)
B
1 + 1 1 1 1 1 +
+ i - i , + + 4.
i
i + + + | | 1 + +•
+ i++ , , ,+ , i
i + i
|
i + ) +
+ ,++
,++ ,
CO 0)
(U P
51
^n^-qavij
m
2:
Lit
isi
Uu
QL
O
unp-uBf
H
A*BW-oa<i
to
fn
j:*W-+oo
<f
^•+
+ i + + + i + i
i + + +
+ + + i +
+ + i +
1 1 1 1
qe^-dsg
^ +
+ + + + + , + +
+ + + , , , , , + +
+ + + +
i i i i
UBf-Snv
oaci-Tnp
CV
1
+
\
\
,1 +
1 +
^ 1
+
+
I
I
I
i
+
+
+
+
C3
O
H
0)
+
CO
a.
o
«
6*
+
+
+
1
1
AO^J— un£*
<M
vD
O>
tH
ffi
1
1
I
1
(
1 +
1 1
+ + + | | |
1
J . L
1 +
1
+ + |
(
t ^ -
J _ J
| +
t
|
1 4 - 1 1
l
i
l
t
1 + 1 +
_ l _ J . l l
' j . J ^
1
+ + 1 1
| + + +
+ +
+ + . .
«} ,«
CM <P
H ^ f-j
O oJ
IQO-taW
dsg-adv
tO
1
| + 4 J
) + + J
) + , +
| + J ,
01
1
3nv-nw
^ 1
1 1 1 1 1 ) 1 1
J + | + + + + + | |
•TO-W
H 4
I
| | | l + + + | | +
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
+ 1+
l
l
1 + + 1 1 +
, + +
l
)
|
+
|
+
l + l l
Ft H H
l + l l
|+ + + (
+ t l t
«
w M
*H o
08Q-AQN
UJ
0O
*/1
o
X
< z
111
AOM-+OQ
JO
*oQ-da9
dDg-Snv
^ +
Snv-Tttf
inp-unf
NO
1
t
^\+
+ , , +
, , +
+
+ + + + , + , !
4
+
t
|
+
,
,
+
+ i + + i + i |
, » + , +
+ , ^ +
, +
.
,
, +
, , ,
+ , + + +
1
+
, +
,
+
+
+ i + + i i i + i i
+ 1 1 +
1 + 1 +
+ + +I
+ + + +
+
+
J
I
( i + r
+
1
1
a
a> at
S£'
unf-A*^
4-s
1
a.
k
X!BH-jdy
5
Jdv-.ii3W
I A I
JWW-qatf
qoj-UBf
0 0 +
+
»
1 +
1 +
»
i
1 +
1
4
i
(
I
i +
+
O
i
1 +
+
*
+ + i +
1 1 +
+
I
4
)
1 +
I
i
l
+ i i
1 1 +
1 1
+ + + I + +
+ + i i
+ I + +
I
I
I
I
+ + + +
I
I
I
I
+ + + I
g +
+ + + + + + ++
+ + + + ( , + + + 4.
+ + + +
utjf-oaa
JO
|
+ + I I I + I I
I + + I + + I I I I
+ 1 1 1
1 1 + 1
09Q-AON
tO
t
I l l t l l + l
I I I I I I I I I +
I+
l +
UJ
+ +
| | t
+
ll
AOK-^OQ
UJ
ffl
to1
H
Q
8
^oo-dsg
dsg-Snv
Bny-T^f
LU
.
Tnr
"^r |
4)
+ + + +
S
r-J
.OJ
1
>
l
I + I I I + + +
+ + + I I I I I + I
+ 1 + 1
+1
+ 1
j n i
, , + + + + + ,
+ , , + + , , , , +
, + t+
i , + +
C ^ +
+ + I I + II+
I + + I I I + + +I
+ 1 1 1
+ + + +
p o•
3 M
I'
S
M* y iw
co P a b»
co o 'H eu
p
<u ^B
CO
CO <D
^
W
n vO «)
IT* *—' ^J
O fM! i—t
h-aaa^
s s>^|| g
'fi rt O
CO ^J
EJ O d
O
CO <*-( *H
+»
Cf)
^
P»
CO
-H* O
« v4
+>
0 O
W 0)
(0
5FH °P ^ - -
H
*£>
C) 05 W OJ
J O
H
UJ
o
2:
>
CO
•sa
6
» : : : : : : : : B ::: i : : : : : :
i i i i
i i i i
gt st-
B
R (4
II > CM O O Q
(U
TJ
i
O
ll^lll
vO
Csj
SO
<»
a^ I o o '
o
H
O ,O
-H
O
rt'd^^^
»•> i -P TJ *cj p
g>|§|«»
•H CG •' s erf a) ^
5^3BB&
«^^SS5
3fm U 3Z?S
!» d^Jt w joqiBi
^vgn^H^a^
"SSS^^Si23^
iW3
^S^S
Table 6.-D1RECT10N OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.—{D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
1-month spans
1963
i
^
o
§
fi
ia
0
c
05
I I 1
"1
1
1
£
I
1
0
1
&
57 47 37 45 33 43 63 48 83 67 85 62 75 48 45 65 52
4- 4- 4- 4- o 4- 4- 44- 0 o
o
+
Furniture and fixtures
Stone , clay, and glass products
Fabricated metal products
O
O
*
+
+
O
+
0
0
o
o
44-
o
4-
+
44r
+
4O
O
4-
0
0
4O
440
'O
0
0
0
0
444-
0
40
4-
44-
440
O
4O
4*
O
+
+
+
0
0
4O
0
0
O
0
4440
0
0
o
0
0
+
o
4
Retail trade
Services and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and Igcal government
0
O
+
+
O
+
+
40
•*•
4444-
4-
4-
44-
0
+
0
4-
40
0
40
4-
44-
40
4-
44444-
-
4-
44444-
444-
4-
0
444-
-
4-
-
4-
O
-
44-
44+
0
4-
4-
0
4-
44-
44-
0
4444O
0
o
faO . CX
If
£ .1
1963
8 I
•-1
bfl
sa
o
&
J3
JM
F n t ^ C r H
M O i - P
O
- p > 0
C X J
f-i^t
> s p ! r ~ l t i O f t
O
O
OJoJ
*U jS & jil Zf
^) ^ CJ
O 2 I Q l ~ 3 t t - i 2 - i < ( j S 1 ^ ) * ~ 3 < i J t / )
*
65 52 38 35 27 28 43 53 65 72 83 78 75 60 50 48 48
+
+
+
0
+
+
44-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
-
4-
4-
-
+
-
4O
-
- - - - - 4 - 4 - 0 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - - - * - - - * - +
- - 4 + 4-4_ + +
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - + _ _ + + _ _ _ _
+ + + + + +
- - 4 - 4 - + 4 - 4 - * - + + 4- - - 4 - + 4--4-4-4- + -
440
44-
+
44O
0
4-
40
0
0
0 O
4-
4-
4-
+ + + + - -
_ _ - +
0
O
+
0
-
s^
0
+ + +
4 - 4 - ^
4-
4-
+
0
+
O
O
4-
+
O
4-
+
4-
O
40
_ _ 4 - -
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_.
+
_ _
- - „
+
+
_ 0
_
o o + o
o
+
4-4-
+
_ _ _
+ +
0
-
+
+
+
+
+
„
_
-
-
+
4*
+
o
+ _ +
- 4 - 4-4-4+ + +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
4+
+
4 4+
+
+
„
_
+
+
+
+
- - -
+
+ + +
- 0
+
0
_
0
4-
444-
4444-
444-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
0
4-
O
4*
+
+
+
4-
0
+
4-
4-
O
4-
44-
0
4-
+
4-
4+
+
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
+
4
4- - rising; Q = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
>
aa fi£*a--fi55a*8sa
i i i i i i i i i i i i
4-
444*
4-
;
O
0
40
4-
40
+
+
4-
44-
4-
4-
»•*•••
0
44-
1
Apr-Jul
1 •3
*-*
1a
1962
Sep-Oct
&
I
Sep-Oct
1962
30 industry components
3-month spans
gn>
O
Analytical Measures
46
oaa-dsg
111
t/^
a
UJ
a;
o»
o
H
1 4-
+
l
4- 4-
; 1 »
<5
•+
1
^:^ .
4- •*- 4- ^
f
) 4> ^ <* ,-A 4-
tit?
' '
1 4- TT
1 t^ +
f ;:sj
1 1
0
l
4
'i1^
; I 1=
1 4. . + 1
o
• l 4-
; 4-
1 4-
•¥ +
; + 4-
; + 4- 4-
4-
f
4. 4.
4.
. , 4-
; 4- 4- 4- 4-
4. 4.
. 4- 4-
; 4- 4- 4-
4-4-
* 4- 4- +
4 - 1
4- 4-
inr-jdv
2
•*"
; + 4-
; 4- 4- + 4-
4-
t
; 4- 4-
; 4- 4- 4-
4-4-
; 4- 4> \
4-4-
i 4-
unf-a^i
t«
•co
4-
* 4- 4*
• 4- 4- 4- 4•
4-
1
• + 4-
; 4- 4- 4-
4-4-
; 4- 4-
1
4- 4-
+ 4
; » 4-
*W-q*I
g(
4-
; 4- 4-
; 4- 4- 4- 4-
4- 4-
; 4- 4-
. - I t
4- +
• 4- 4- 4-
4-4-
4-4-
; + 4-
4-4-
; 4- 4- 4-
ii
S
adv-UBp
j^-oea
qaU-AON
UBp-^OQ
^
oaa-des
AO^-Sny
O
^OQ-I^f
3
dag-unr
H
BriV"-^1^
Itif-Jdv
u.
o
H
2:
1
tse
-H
; 1 4-
• + 4-
t
4-1
; 4- 4- 4-
4-4-
1 4-
• 1
t
* 1 4-
t
4 - 1
• 4* 4-
1
f
1 4- 4-
4- 4-
• 4-
1
. 1 4 - 1
I I
• + 4-
1
4, 4.
. 4 - 1 . 1 4 . 4 . 4 .
4- +
• 1
)
. 1 4 - 1
I I
• 1 1 4 .
4-
. 4 - 4 . . 4-04-4,
J*
+
; + 4-
• 4- 4- 4- 4-
m
IA
Q
• 4- 4-
•
vD
I
tG
4- 4-
*
oj
+
OJ
t
g;
-f
O^
4-
NO
;.+
1
+
4- 1
• 1 4-
4-
i
; 4-
I
; l 4- 4-
1
1
• 4. 4. o
l
; 1
1
. 1 4 . 1
1
1
• + 4. 4.
\
* 1 4-
4- 4-
; 4-
* 4- Q 4- 4-
4- 4-
; t
"
Os
4-
; I 4-
; 4- 4- 4- 4-
CV
4-
. 4. 4.
. 4.
\
; l 4- 4*
I
; 4- 4-
l
; 4- 4-
; 4- + l
i 4. 4 - ^ * 4 - 1
l $ ^ tS
4-
(
l
1
. 4, i
• + 1
4-
i 4. +
- 4-
|
• 1 -f
• 4. 4.
. 4.
4.
4> 1
; 4- 4- + o
i
; 4- f
I t
4- 4-
;+ l
; 4.
4>
1
* 4.
i t
; l 4- ;
+ : *•
• 4'
t
14,
i
+
; I 4*
4-44-4-
; 4-
14-
; 4- 4- 4-
4, ,
4- + ; 1 +
4,
1 + ;« 4
+
09Q-AQM
2 1
5
s II
i1
S
+
(ji
; •
4-
1 0
1
I
• f
f
1
4,
i
. 4,
)
t
; 1
t
dog-§ny
«J
4-
• i
. + | 4- 4.
4-
1
; 4-
1
Sny-inf
g
1
. i 4.
. 4. 4.
i |
l 4-
; o 4-
• + 4- 4-
04-
; 4- 1 4 -
fnp-unp
uj
4-
• l 4.
. 4.
t 4.
4-
1
• 4, 4-
. 4. 4-
+
1
. 4- 4-
1
4-4-
0 4-
; ' t-
unf-^j
WN
4-
; l 4-
• 4- 4- 4- 4-
4.
t
• 4-
. 4. + +
4-4*
; 4- 4-
»
4-1
4- 4-
; 1 4>
4-4-
; 4- 4- 4-
4-4-
t 4-
; 4> 1
I t
4- 4-
; l4*
t
; 4-
t
CM
4-
; 4- 4-
; 1 4- 4>
r^i
4-
; 4- 4-
* 1 0 l +
qa^^UBf
S
*
; 4- 4-
; 4- 4-
[J ^ p _ QQfl
£
• 1 4-
; 4-
• 1
• . 4- 4- 4-
4 - 4 - . i l
• .
«
4- 4-
4.00-dsg
dag-Sny
Snv-inp
tnf^iT^
)
1 4.
l
I
C\
+
I
1
l
1 4-
; 4- 4-
; 4- 4-
+ 4-
; 4- 4-
; 4-
*
; 4- 4- 4-
1 4-
• l l
• I 4- 4-
4-4-
; 4- 0 4-
1
• 4. 4-
- 4- 4-
1
4-1
* 4- +
• 0
»
4.
1 4- 4-
1
t
4-
t
.
.4.
14-
1 4-
1
4-
1
1
; + 4-
4,
I
+
1
I
1 4-
14-
4- 4-
+ 4-
• o + +
4.
t
(
;+ f
• 4-
1
l
; 4- *•
i • ;r .
. 4- 1
- I 4 - I
1
4-
*
1
1
1
4-4-
4- 4-
. | | . 4. 4. 4- 1
•
•
. 4- Q * 4- 4- 4- t
4 - 1 * 1 )
*
1 4-
1
I I
•
|
t 4-
I I
4- 1
• 1 1
4- 4-
•
1 4- 4-
+ 4.
* 4- 4-
,4-
4- 4-
. 1 4-
C O O
* 4-
4- 4-
« 4-
-^4-
* 1 O • +
4-
.
• + 4»
-^4m
O^
CV
O^
1
4-
1
1
1 4-
* 4- Q 1 4t 4- 4-
I
* 4-
1
. 4- 41
1 4-
. 4- 4,
|
• 4.
1
t
1 +
4*
i
o
. 4 - 1 4 .
0
1
4- 1
• 1 4-
- 4 - 1 4 -
+ +
O 4-
« 1 1
Seri
I
° ii ^
4*
W
2
l
l
AOM-^OQ
Q.
'
l
; 4- 4- 4-
oaa-AON
>
o
'
; 4* +
JBW-qoj
LU
tl f^
4-
adv-J^W
§i
5
00
l
4-4-4- ^
c
t 4- 4- 4- ^ 4- 4- .^
4-sO-^os
X^-jdy
D4
6
2
UJ ^
$
ia
0 + o ,-sS ^ ^
l data for
sed on 24 ind
0.
i5
where
ing Is
K I
1
< *
2
i 4.
nents are s asonally a
AON -^ oo
UJ
a:
1 4-
c^
>—I
ft
; 4- 4- 4-
g
1
(A
g
• +
; l 4-
anv-JCw
ja
UJ
a:
• t 4-
+
dog-unp
m
^
-44-
to
y b
^DO-inf
u^
UJ
UJ
o
z
M
a
Of
i
a
d ra •
O
•H
o
O
jj
• -p d
*
: :s : : :
:* .: g
: o5 c•c : :
;* »
* p *
O
Q
H
0)
• • 0 0
• W 3 *H
•
•
• fc *
• ft •
fx3
S w 2 f - t o * a j < i > *
<U
• O O -P
• C T3
•
'
9 '
M
1• ' *
: : g : : a -8 : : : :
« *H «} -P
* XI
O
£
24 ii)dusH
IL
O
W
»-(
P a )
•H-^
h
Q
ra
O
S
I-*
CtJ
ft«rH
<U
-a
oj. O - H
*• 5
CQ*
H *£
C
2
2S
s
bfl M
^ rrt
X
HftOfi*^
1
4 13
fi£SI2w*ME
§
-P to
ti^fl)!:!^
: :g
::
' S?
-H
f^
•HftrtHu.a
T3
»w
-p « o o c a «c
VH -P
ft
W
3
'"(DrHjH'C
CJ g
P Q
aJ *8
"°
"go
So
y
ft
-g -^fl a)
cd f3 e -g
H 5ffl *B «J
*ri
O
,^
f"> 1)
§^i^ +>
o . o S3
^t o a*
"3et5
°'55g'
.^ t> ^> O
bocd o o
C
•H-P
0)
S O
OQ o £ -P
•H (3 T3
:ajp§
*• a.'S
47
Analytical Measures
i
oaa-inp
AOfJ—UTljf
^.OO1™-^^
-o
§
dag-jdy
1
STIV-JBW
U
+
l
(
^+
+1+
l
+
)
+
+
| + o + + t + +
+ + . ) + +
++++
I I
+ + +
+ + I
++++++,,
LU
ra
UJ
Oi
Q.
R
v>
^4-
+ + + + + + + +
+ + i + ) + + i
1 + 1 + 1 + + +
^ +
++ + + + + + +
+ , , , + + , ,
+ + , , , + + ,
TO+
A^-oaa
idy-AON
\A
o
1-
|+
+ + + + | |
+
|
|
+
l
+
|
l
1 + I + + + +
+
UTiJ>-UBr
H
t:
+ +
-4"
1
• +
4-
+ +
+ +
UN
•o
ON
qa^-dag
>_J
uBjp-3ny
3
oaQ-x^r
Q N +
++ + + I T + 0
» + + + + ! + +
+ + + + + Q + +
rH
+
+ + + + I O + +
+ + 0 + + I + +
+ + + Q + I + +
•£>-»•
+ - I - + + + + + 4-
+ 4- -fc + -F
+ - C - t - - h - t - + 4- +
->t+
+ I + I I I + I
^ +
+ » + + + + + +
4-t-
AON-unr
i
<£
q.oo-^BW
CM
Q£
t/>
UJ
daQ— jidv
*
s
t/>
11.
0
1—
3nv— JBtJ
O
inr-qajl
TXI
I I O + + I + +
+
(
!
+ +++
+
+ I + I O + + +
. . +
! ( + +
AON^OQ
§
<
"5
UJ
Jf
p
18
$
-p
"3
^
1
! , , + + ! + +
, + + , +
, + +
, , +
, + + + ,
r
^ ^ 1
Snv^T^'f
s
rj
inf-unr
2
unf-Jfcw
a
jCBW-jdv
03
jdv*"J18^1
-P
U
io
qaj[— UB£*
fe T
UBp— OSQ
OS
UJ
O
( + i + i t i +
s
+>
IP
0)
+ + + +
1
+ + 1 + 1 + + 1 + I O I + + 1 1
C^
1
0 + + I I I I O
)
1
+ + t | | + + I
-<f
»
I O + + 0 + + +
1 1 1 + 1 1 1 +
I 1 I + + + + +
o
,+
ed
0>
)
1 +
i + +
,+
,+
, . + +
AOH-q-OQ
CM
^oo-d^s
2
d9S-Snv
£
Snv-ltif
o
u
inp-unr
-p
eg
3
«
"-^
TJ
at
>i
H
CO
0 +
+ ! + , +
. . »
.+
1+ + + 1 I
+ , +
,+ +
+ + + + I O I +
I + + O I 1 + +
+ + + ( + + 1 +
w
o
e^d
O +
+ I I I I I + I
l | l ( + t + l
+ + + + Q + 1 1
•p
a
^ +
+ | | + + + + + + | | + | + + +
oaa-AON ' ( > +
X
o
i
1 1 1 + 4 . 1 1 +
«IB^— qsj
I
LU
I i i I i I I i
Oi
'O
~o
oo
01
> + +
C+ +
1
8
0)
oo
<u
i
«/•»
UJ
Q£
LU
*/»
S1
•H
H
H
CO
5
tore component
fCTION OF CHAI
s<u
H
dssf-Sw
Q
Table 6.-D
15
03
<
0£
5
-p
s
,
LU
Q.
1
a
9
+
oaa-AON
£
u
ao
•s
§
•ft
-p
o
<u
^*
JBW-^-OO
CM
«
T3
03
•H
T*f-W
^
^~
z
UJ
Z
O +
U
1
• •
• • • • o a > » *
• ^ • -p
1
1
O
• • o
s
CO
r-i
II
•H
a)
-p
0)
OJ
PJflJ
• t Q « O T f t ] « O 0 3 0 ] - P
•TCJf"*'
fl>
Cd
C Q - P «
O
O
• H M
O J O ' O O W
O
ctf
•P-P
e; D
f-iCOOwcof-ttdco
O
o
Ofn
-ProaJ-pfH-p<ufH
0) i-t
h f ^ O - P
id ^
-P C -P O ^
M*oJwcoct)rt-pS
p^pid)
SCQ£U
<U»H^CQ
,0
r-t - P a J O ^ t O J r H f ^
oa)-pf-tom,£>!j
•r-*fr3wA,-poo}<g
S
•H
CO
•H
fU
II
+
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak dote preceding the trough of each cycle.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
-Reference trough dates
-"—~ Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• * ' * • • • • July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
-—
July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
111
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
II I Ml I I (I I
180
160
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus,
bldg. 2
M M I I II I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
I
I
I
I
-^-Reference trough dates
140
120
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
'workers, mfg.
100*
•100
80
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
I
24. Mfr*/ new orders,
mach, and equip. Indus
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
-1-6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or *2*, the figure for the reference peak is set at "100*. For series with
on MCD of "3" or mote, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at " 100*. MCD values a,'« shown in appendix C.
2
*See table 1 for latest month in current period* Percent changes for this month ond comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
For
the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3*term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 4
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
f I M I I M M I I i I i | I I I I I i i I I I MI
Index
PERIOD COVERED
•^-Reference trough dates
- Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
- July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
-mo
II I 1 I I I I I I ! M II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I | I 1 I I I I
-^-Reference trough dates
150
140
13. New business incorporations
-105
130
100*
120
no
100
90
19, Stock prices, 500
common stocks
J
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+36
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
80
+36
*Reference peak level. For series with o "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "l"or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
30
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4||
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
JTTTTTJI
I I I I I I 1 ! I I 1 1! | I 1 1 I I I 1 1 I I M I | I 1 U II 1 I 1 I I M"
PERIOD COVERED
Index
-^Reference trough dotes
—— Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
-.» - -~ July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr, 1958)
"•
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
140
Index
120
43. Unemployment rote, total
100*
80
,, ,-,A
.
:•"
60
54, Sales of retail stores
115
110
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
105
100*
95
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
* Reference peak l»»vel. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "l"or "2", the figure for tho reference peak is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or mow, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C.
*See table 1 for latest month In current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
51
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 41
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
Inde
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
-July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958}
• May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961}
Index
I I I M I I M I I I 1 H I M I I M H M I M | I I I II
-^-Reference trough dates
120r
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD)of "Tor "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at *100*. For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at *100*, MCD values are shown in appendix C
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period* Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle,
Index
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
- July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
- no
Inde;
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
-105
100
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
[ M i l l 11 M I I I I I M I M I I I I I 1 I ( I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of 'Tor "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C
*See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
Last 2 quarters anticipated.
Cyclical Patterns
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific'trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
iTi m IT I rn 1 1 1 r
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
tnde
-Specific trough dates
2
1958
1961
i m i urn I m mm nun ii m 1 1 1 1 MI i
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus.
bldgs. 3
-<-Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg
100'
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip, indus.
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
I
160
150
- 110
100s*
MOO
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+ 6 + 1 2 + 1 8
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
J
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9*
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
54
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions.
with the specific trough date 1 of each series for each expansion,
Period begins
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 42 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dotes each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
—
1949
1954
1958
1961
i i m i i i m i i ii i i i 1
Index
-<=Specific trough dates
160 •
150 -
13. New business incorporations
**\
r^
140
130
120
110
200
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
180
160
UO
120
*100
1I I 1I II 1I I I I I II I II
0
+6
mill
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
Mill
+36
Ml
+42
0
+ 6 + 1 2 + 1 8
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific troug'.i level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)'of T or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
J
2
See appendix El for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period* Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
55
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 5
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of-1949
1958
1954
1961
Index
300r
1115
I MM If II I I II I I t i l l I
41. Employees in nonagri
establishments
•<-Specific trough dates
- no
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" {MCD) of "1* or "2",the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "1001*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C.
l
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the spec!fie'trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
H l [ M l i l | | M I I T I I Ft I
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of1949
1954
130 -
1958
1961
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 III 1 1 ! I I 1 1 1 I I I M 1 1 1 1 II! I I I I 1 1 1 1 1
Irde;
140r
—'^-Specific trough dates
-<=Specific trough dates
49. GNP in current dollars
120
no
*100
53. Labor fncome in mining,
mfg., and construction
150
140
130
52. Personal income
120
no
*100
o
mill
6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
n 1 1 1 1 1 M i •I n i n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 H I
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance11 (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values ore shown in appendix C
2
See appendix B for specific dotes*
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle/ changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table /.--PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of"l" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62,
64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
after
beginning in—
referNov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb.
ence July July
1938
trough1 1921
1949
1924
1927 1933
1954
1961
1958
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13, Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
16, Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin|29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
33
32
32
33
33
95.4
33.8
39.7
88.1
30.1
34.7
71.9 101.0
50.3 136.0
59.3 135.6
135.0 109.6
186.0 124.2
51.3
40.2
59.6
47.3
237.7 146.8
165.1 133.8
120.0 100.4
95.8 106.9
116.6
120.2
112.5
59.4
26.2
197.1
125.0 105.8
130.1
120.8
62.6
90.3
99.1
123.1
93.7
107.5
34.6
121.7
101.7
131.5
93.5
135.3 108.8
113.6
NA
30.3
15.6
32
37.9
32
33
30
33
33
33
65.4 103.9 100.2
16.6
84.6
64.2
86.0
86.5 54.7
NA
NA
NA
96.3 163.9 159.7
70.6
58.7 82.1
101.0
107.0
122.2
104.1
66.5 81.1 108.8
336.6 114.8 111.3
23.5 155.8 82.7
NA 97.9
NA
61.2 164.0
43.3
95.3 89.7
77.9
33
NA
HA
NA
NA
NA
167.8
33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
86.0
95.0 87.3
NA
NA
NA
102.1 105.3
89.4
HA 113.3 105.0
NA 113.5 110.5
94.7 121.2 102.1
NA 113.7
97.4
94.6
106.3 105.9
85.9
NA
84.7
68.6
85.3
56.4
73.0
78.9
109.5
123.4
125.5
113.8
NA
114,6
117.5
120.4
106.4
114.1
115.6
128.4
117.5
132.9
126.2
121,1
98.0
74.0
77.8
135.7
70.3
120.9
99.8
192.6
107.8
NA
98.2 101.5
98.2 102.7
67.9 H1.2
101.7
130.9
105.2 101.3
64.2
62.4
108.4 101.1
118.9 112.0
109.8 106.4
131.4 121.0
121.2 113.8
117.3 106.8
105.7
88.5
115.5
116.8
112.0
129.6
117.5
112.4
108.9
101.4
99.8
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
'49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q),.
51, Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods **..*..**
33
33
33
30
30
33
33
33
33
65.2
88.1
84.0
86.2
30
36
54.9
44.5
100.9
91.2
87.0
64.9
44.0
49.3
131.5
m
119.4
120.0
131.3
134.3
94.0
88.7
110.2
112.3
33
32
32
81.1
NIL
m
91.5
NA
NA
89.4
HA
NA
83.3 100.0
NA
77.5
83.5 148.6
110.8
140.6
192.1
108.6 102.7
117.1 102.9
147.2 128.6
98.9
109.4
127.8
30
88.1
91.5
103.2
59.8
133.0
117.4
103.3
93.6
98.5 107,3
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a.....
,
»
b
62, Index of labor cost per unit of output,
67* Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
98.5
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, and April 1958, the peak had been passed
and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference
peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA
Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 30 months after the February 1961 trough Actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 36 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 1st quarter 1964).
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 4-1, 43, 47, 3£, 34, 5.0,j
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of ",1" or
more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trou|d
month is used aa the base. The base for quarterly aeries (series L6, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trouf»li|
quarter. See also MOD footnote to appendix C*
Selected series
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
Months
beginning In—
after
referJuly
Nov.
Mar.
June Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
ence July
1924
1949 1954
1927 1933 1938
1958
trough1 1921
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
33
32
32
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
poods industries
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs,, floor space2...
+3.5
m
NA
+1.8 +03 + 1.6 +3.0,
+4.4 -10.3 +6.6 +15.8
+57.6 -58.9 +23.0 +52.2 +20.5 +1.9
+6.9
-s.d
+28.2 -51.0 +60.5 +173.3 +82. a +20.4 +14.3 +60.8
33
33
-2.1 -46. 6+210.3 +295.5 +69.5 +34.0 +13.8
+91.3
+90.0 +25.4 -61.3 +213.1 +75.7 -7.1 -19.8 +11.5
32
+39,1 +62.0 -31.5 +119.3 +299.5 +20.6 +29.1 +34.6 +39.6
32
Number of new business incorporations
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
33
30
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Price per unit of labor cost index
33
33
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
33
Valuo of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment Industries *..*.*
. . » . 33
29. Index of new private housing units author 33
13,
14.
16.
17.
19,
23 *
24.
-9.6 +40.3 -3.5
-1.6
-6.2 -30.2
m +60.7 -25.6
m
NA
NA
+30.2 +57.4 +21.9
+40.1 -2.1 -27.6
-16.1
-5.8
m +56.0
NA
-33.3
NA
NA
+4.1
-5.2
+5.7
-0.9
-2.5 +57.8
+109.3
+87.6 +40.8 +19.5
+H.9
-26.3
+41.9
+1.6
+52.2
+7.8
+36.5 +1^.6
-16.9 -64.6
+19.3 +43.2
+4.6 +3.6
+4-1.0 +16.8
+7.9 -2,0
NA
NA
NA +91.4 +45-3
NA
NA
m
NA
NA
NA
NA
-7.1
+24.8
-9.0
NA
-5.0
+4.7
+8.0
-6.1
-3.4
-5.4
+25.5
+54.3
+75.5
+36.1
+18.4
+47.7
+48.4
+49.9
+22.2
+119.8
+33.7
+29.2
NA
+37.3
+32.0
+47.7
+12.1
+132.8
+26.4
+32.8
+19.2
+38.4
+32.0
+21.1
+8.9
+/4.5.S
+19, 2
+21.1
+13.1
+29.3
+21.5
+18.1
+17.7
+14. 8
+10.6
+24.9
+14.2
+8.5
-9.7 +19.0
+4.3
+13.1
+9.7
+1.9
-24.7
+243
+20.6
+23. a
+19.9
0.0 +34,9
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagrieultural
43 *
47.
49.
SO.
i>l«
Unemployment rate, total ( inverted) ...»
Index of industrial production
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Cross national product in 1934 dollars (Q)..
Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54 . Sales of retail stores
35. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
mm
33
33
33
30
30
33
33
33
+49.5
+28.7
+27.7
+22.2
+27 .6
+13.3
+9.3
NA
+28.2
+16.0
+13.9
+25.1
+13.6
+5.9
33
+3.1
-3.5
m
+5.6
+10. a
+7.7
+20.2.
+aa.?
+ 17.6
+H.;L
+i>6.6
+16.7
+14.6
-Q.I.
LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
to...
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
30
36
33
32
32
67. Dank rates on short-term business loans,
39 cities (Q)
30
+59.9 +44.6 -1.0 +156.4 +120.3 +49.2 +37.4 +17.1
+29.8: +30.7 -26.1 +187.2
NA +50.0 +40.6 +10.5
-9.9 -11.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
-18.3
+4.3
+18.2
+20.4
-9.2 +13.6 -3.6 +15.2 +6.4 -3.3 -2.8
NA +30.8
NA +50.6 +25.3 +6.7 +10.6
NA +74.7 +59.4 +54.8 +42.4 +27.6 +23.6
+7.2
-23.2
+0.9 +32.5 +23.0 +19.7
+0,8
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, and April 1958, the peak had been passed
and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference
peak dc,tes and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates*
NA Kot available.
1
Baecid on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Exe€'pt for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series*
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 30 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 36 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 1st quarter 1964).
59
Cyclical Patterns
Toble 9.--PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, and
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of "3" or more
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter.
See also MCD footnote
to appendix C.
Selected series
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
...*.
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ...
17.
19.
23.
24.
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries ...............
?9. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
49, Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).«
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 * Sales of retail stores
Months
after
July
spe1921
cific
trough1
Mar.
1933
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
#97.8 #100.0
29
33
33
37
35
*45.2
#86.3
NA
#99.2
#71.3
#114.6 #108.2
#106.8 #110.5
NA
NA
NSC
139.9
*100.8 #76.6
36
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA #211.6 #106.2
#99.2 111.6
35
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
#96.5 101.2
*91.3 #96.6
#105.6
85.9
NA
72.8
68.6
80.0
73.1
65.4
74.4
109.0
101.1
125.5
108.3
NA
117.6
125.3
115.1
33
30
34
30
30
35
33
31
NA
NA
NA
*112.3 #108.2 #116.2
NSC
NSC
NA
NSC
NSC
NA
NA #111.1 #112.9
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
97.1
65.1
96.3
NSC
#99.8
#99.0 100.0
NSC
40.2
15.8 177.2
94.9 3133.1
NSC #138.1 100.2
62.2
#70.4 39.0
NA
NA #107.2 #90.3 #101.0 98.9
52.1 149.1 #186.3 #122.5 121.6
34.0
69.8
95.7 #135.1 #65.1 #92.9 91.9
NA
106.4 #105.4 #103.0 105.4
#67.2 #78.0 84.8
116.3
121.4 #109.2 #109.0 113.6
127.2 116.6 #112.4 116.8
116.7 108.7 #107.6 112.0
130.0 118.9 113.5 3116.7
123.8 115.4 #108.3 113.4
NSC 109.8 #109.4 110.9
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
#+15.4
#+7.9
#+4.5
-3.8
+15.5
+5.2
#+4.1
NSC
NA +29.0
29 #+118.5 #+82.6 #+40.1 +63.7
NSC
*+23.6 *+42.9 *+20.5 #+12.8 -51.1
33
+5.1
NA #+15.2 #+6.8
m
NA
NA
NA
33
NSC +123.3 -4.7 +79.5 <+109.6
#+46.2 +64.3
37
35. #+75.0 #+36.7 #+7.3 +87.6 +48.1 #+100.3 #+24.7
#+5.2
+5.7
+38.7 3+43.1
#+51.7 +17.2
#+9.4 +3.6
#+48.1 +35.2
#+17.4 +0.5
36
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA #€.80.1 #+89.9 #+36.7 +20.7
35
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
#+32.6 #+12.0 #+11.5 +25.5
NA
NA +52.3
NA
#+66.1 #+31.7 #+24.9 +56.1
NSC +36.1
NSC
NA
NSC
NA
NSC +18.7
#+32.8 *+15.3 #+15.9 +48.6
NA +83.8
NA
NA
NSC
NSC +45.0
+13.8
+22.2
+84.3
+85.7
+29.2
NA
+34.6
+71.3
+42.5
+12.1
+153.0
+34.8
+31.9
+19.5
+36.3
+41.6
NSC
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50, Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
Oct.
1949
NA
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units author-
June
1938
35
35
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,...
Nov.
1927
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ...
July
1924
33
30
34
30
30
35
33
31
NA #+56.3 +35.8
#+9.1
#+58.1
#+21.3
+19.8
+12.8
+20.4
+24.9
+15-4
#+7.6
#+50.4
#+27.2
#+16.4
#+12.5
+14-9
#+17.6
#+13.7
+7.7
+21.5
+22.8
+17.6
+14.1
3
+17.3
+19.5
+15.6
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
•^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month
indicated in the first column.
The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered is
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. l). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
^ased on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to
the latest month shown in table 1.
The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an
asterisk. Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 1 and the high
preceding that low.
Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October i860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882.
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 189^
June 1897
December 1900
30
22
46
Iff
34
36
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 19U
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918
January 1920...
May 1923..
23
13
24
23
2
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
M
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957......
May I960
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
XXX
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
45
45
42
32
8
6
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
*25 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
2
Source:
*21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
6
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.--SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that eaeh series reaches its trough and peak. Reference datea are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, fos1 selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Dee. '60
9. Construction eontracte awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorpoJan. '61
rat ions
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Feb.1 61
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Dee. '60
24. Value of rufrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Nov.1 60
29. Index of new private housing units
authorised by local bldg. permits-. Dee. '60
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculFeb. '61
tural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61
Jan. '61
49. GNP in current dollars ( Q)
IstQ' 61
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
IstQ' 61
5P . Personal income
NSC
53. Labor income in raining, manufacFeb. '61
Apr. '61
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Mar.
193 3
Nov.
1927
July
July
mil
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 .Tun.1 32 Apr. '28 Jul. '24 Feb.'21
Jun.'58 NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul. '24 Mfir,'?l
Feb. '49
NSC
Dee. '53 Kay '49
Sep. '53 Jun.'49
Feb . ' 54Jan. '49
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun.'38
Dec. '34 Dee. '26
NA
NA
Jun,'32 NSC
Jul. '32
Jun.'24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun.'24
Jan. Ml
NA
Aug.';>l
Jul. Ml
Feb. '58 mr.'54 Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dee. '57
Apr. '58
Feb. '58 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
my '58 Aug. ' 54
Jul. '58 Sep. '54
Apr. '58 Apr. '54
IstQ' 58 2ndQ' 54
IstQ' 58 2nd Q' 54
Feb . ' 58Mar. '54
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2ndQ'49
2ndQ'49
Oct,'49
Jun.'38
Jun,'38
May '38
2nd Q' 38
IstQ' 38
May '38
mr,'33
my '33
Jul. '32
lotQ'33'
3rdQ'32
mr.'33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NBC
NSC
4thQ'26
Jul. '24
NA
Jul. '24
JNSC
J85C
2ndQ'24
Jul.'21
NA
Apr.'21.
4 thQ' 21.
NA
2n<iQ!2;i
NA
NSC
NA
mr.'22
Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38 Mar. '33 NA
May »38 Mar. '33 NSC
Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in—
Seleeted aeries
my
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Apr. '59
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldga... NSC
13. Number of new business insorporat ions
Apr. '59
17, Priee per unit of labor cost index. May '59
19 „ Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul. '59
23, Index of industrial mat. prices.... Nov. '59
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Jul. '59
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58
NBER ROUGI&Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments
Apr. '60
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. '60
49 , GNP in current dollars ( Q)
2nd Q' 60
50. ONP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2nd Q' 60
52 . Personal income
NSC
53. X&bor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
my '60
54 . Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60
not available.
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov.* 22 NA
Nov. '55 Apr. '53 NSC
Mar. '56 NSC
Mar. '46 Jul. '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dee.'19
Feb. '56
Dec. '55
Jul. '56
Dec. '55
Jul. '46
Jan. '48
Jun,'48
Jan, '48
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
War, '29
Oet,'25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
MEir.'23
Eec.'lO
NA
Jul.'19
Apr.'20
Nov. '56 Feb. '51 Apr, '48 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul. '48
Jan. '48
Jul. '48
4thQ'48
4thQ'48
Oct.] 48
Jul. '37
Jul, '37
my '37
3rdQ'37
3rdQ'37
Jun.'37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.1'29
3rd Q 29
3rd Q1 29
Aug. '29
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Jun.'23
NA
May '23
NSC
NSC
IstQ' 24
Jan.'20
NA
Feb.'20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
Jul.'20
NSC
Feb. '51
Jan. '53
Feb f ' 51
Feb. '55 NA
mr.'57
mr.'57
Feb. '57
3rdQ' 57
3rd Q' 57
Aug. '57
Jul.1 53
Jun.'53
Jul. '53
2ndQ' 53
2ndQ' 53
Oct. '53
Dee. '36
NA
Feb. '37
mr.'37
Jul ..'57 Jul. '53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
Aug.* 57 Mar. * 53 NSC
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Appendixes
63
Appendix C--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
cT
Monthly series
I
C
1/c
i/c
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I
CI
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
.49
.42
2 * Access ion rate, manufacturing
4.69
4.92
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries.... 1.82
1.29
3 • Layoff rate, manufacturing
9.52
8.05
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
17.76 17.12
5. Average weekly initial claims fur unemployment insurance, State programs
5.29
4.62
6. Value of manufacturers* new orders, durable
3.79
3.25
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
4.47
4.01
.21
1.72
1.18
4.02
2.00
2.73
1.09
2.00
2
3
2
3
.95
.89
.59
.70
2.15
1.85
2.27
2.?1
1.65
1.54
1.63
1.73
10.58
9.00
9.77
8.40
4.06
5.64
5.25
5.39
3.99
4.29
5
.89
1.63
1.44
6.35
3.08
2.49
1.86
2
.86
1.72
1.51
9.77
3.94
1.61
2.02
3
.59
1.67
1.54
8.33
4.56
1,61
2.49
3
.84
1.76
1.51
12.50
3.62
9. Construction contracts awarded for
cial and industrial buildings.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
29. Index of new private housing units
9.43
4.61
7.31
1.67
1.47
1.14
5.65
3.14
6.41
6
4
6
C1)
.82
(X)
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.54
1.59
1.53
6.63
10.75
6.13
3.03
3.71
2.32
3.39
2.36
1.48
1.10
2.29
2.15
3
3
.68
.77
1.89
2.10
1.53
1.70
14.38
6.30
3.32
3.02
16.86 16.36
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100 ,000 and over
> 13.09 12.81
.56
.69
19, Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks...... 2.65
1.86
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
6.81
5.29
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
5.81
5.32
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
7.68
5.54
deliveries
1.04
1.32
2.52
6.49
6
C1)
1.48
1.32
5.77
2.26
2.11
.33
1.67
6.07
1.70
1.11
6
2
2
1
f)
.94
.68
1.53
2.23
2.35
1.37
1.74
1.67
9.77
7.47
12.70
5.30
3.60
3.94
3.10
1.71
3
.66
2.54
1.76
10.58
4.63
2.14
2.49
3
.76
1.87
1.63
12.70
3.91
4.73
.74
1.17
1.41
2
2
.79
.95
3.53
2.44
2.12
2.05
9.77
11.55
4.20
4,06
commer-
9.66
equipment.. 4.93
started.... 7.34
author3.82
13. Number of new business incorporations
2.68
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
.30
.15
.25
.60
1
.60
5.29
2.05
14.11
5.29
.35
4.14
5.50
.29
2.98
4.46
.19
2.45
2.96
1.53
1.22
1.51
2
2
2
.76
.65
.70
1.98
2.40
2.10
1.55
1.65
1.34
14.11
7,47
9.36
3.23
3.41
3.78
4.82
2.56
3.56
.72
1
.72
3.74
2.12
9.07
3.74
3.38
2.21
2.38
.93
1
.93
2.27
1.41
9.07
2.27
1.09
1.48
.49
.58
1.44
.27
.79
.60
.41
.73
2.40
.66
1
3
1
.73
.54
.66
3.53
1.69
3.43
2.05
1.53
1.84
9.77
18.14
18.14
3.53
4.31
3.43
.81
.78
.53
.63
.61
.44
.87
1.43
1
2
.87
.85
3.43
2.53
1.90
1.80
11.55
9.54
3.43
3.62
.17
.10
.13
.77
1
.77
3.53
2.65
11.55
3.53
.65
.48
.36
1.33
2
.72
2.27
1.55
9.07
4.34
.54
.19
.49
.39
1
.39
8.33
2.02
13.89
8.33
.80
.83
.54
.17
.49
.78
1.10
.22
2
1
.53 2.40
.22 11.45
1.42
2.29
15.63
18,00
5.17
11.45
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor
45* Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
47. Index of industrial production
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories,
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of
See footnotes at end of table.
64
Appendixes
Appendix C.-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/c
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
span
CI
e
I
MCD
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
.10
5.59
5.20
.13
.82
.95
.77
6.82
5.47
1
6
6
.77
C1)
t1)
6.00
1.51
1.74
2.25 25.20
1.41 8.47
1.57
7.47
6*00
2,18
2,60
4.39
4.59
3.61 3.47
Index of construction contracts, total value. 7.03
6.69
Defense Department obligations, procurement.. 26.87 26.37
Defense Department obligations, total
15.12 14.78
Military prime contract awards to U.S.
business firms
26.25 26.21
Manufacturers1 unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
.*.• 1.51
.57
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
OECD European countries, index of indus.prod.. .86
.83
1.09
United Kingdom, index of indus. prod
1.14
.77
.90
1.18
West Germany, index of indus. prod
1.42
1.20
1.36
1.41
Italy, index of indus * prod
1.44
Japan, index of indus. prod
1.07
1.70
1.11
.97
1.69
4.09
2.70
3.95
3.58
3.96
6.45
5.47
4
4
5
6
6
.96
.85
.84
C1)
(x)
1.77
1.59
1.52
1.51
1.47
1.66
1.51
1.45
1.46
1,43
7.06
7.53
7.88
3.93
6.61
2.75
2.97
3.59
2.27
2.48
6.12
4.28
6
f1)
1.58
1.47
5.95
2.86
1.34
.43
1
.43
5.95
1.87 13.89
3.93
.50
.47
.52
.69
.68
.74
1.23
1.66
2.32
1.48
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
.89
.81
.72
.93
.89
.64
.87
3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91
2.40
1.87
2.12
2.14
2.03
1.82
1.52
82 * Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public,..
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
94.
90 „
91(,
92,
96*
121.
122.
125.
127.
128.
Quarterly series
.15
5.68
5.37
CI
I
C
I/c
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
7.75
31.25
8.93
5.59
8.27
15.63
5.43
18.00
25.00 11.27
6.42
11.00
17.06 2.91
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBEH LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income
originating, corporate, all industries
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50* Gross national product in 1954 dollars
49. Gross national product in current dollars....
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
5.78
3.73
4.17
.89
1
.89
2.89
1.49
5.50
2,89
1.44
1.88
1.60
.65
.69
.82
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
2.94
,,51
1
.51
4.64
1.55
5.67
4.64
3.61
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total pross national product
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufac-
1.02
.60
,71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7*29
2.68
2.96
1.94
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
6.27
1.26
5.79
.22
1
.22
4.38
1.94
5.83
4.38
NOTE: Measures for monthly series are computed for the
period, January 1953 to mid-1963, except for series 7, 86,
and 87; for series 7, the period begins with May 1959 and
for series 86 and 87, the period ends with June 1962.
^•Nbt computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures
shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in
ElectronJc Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin/ issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal
of Business, October 1957).
"CT" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
1.49
.84
seasonally adjusted series. "F is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into t'ie seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the
same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average oiT the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. Averages,
without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes
Appendixes
65
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C—Continued
over each span.
MOD is the shortest span in months for
which the average percentage change (without regard to
sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted
series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular
movements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater
than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are
shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of
the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in
quarters) for which the average percentage change (without
regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in
the irregular component, and remains so.
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve.
The MCD curve is a moving average
(with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1month spansjand for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD
is "6", no T/C__ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/Cis shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series
of observations. When there is no change between 2 months,
a change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed.
The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5.
The actual value of ADR falls between
1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month
intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series,
the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.58 for series 10, Contracts and Orders for Plant
and Equipment. This indicates that 1-month changes in the
seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign
about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR
measures shown in the next two columns, 1.43 for I and
11.45 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series
has been successfully separated into an essentially random
component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally,
ADR is 3.35 for the MCD moving average. This indicates
that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 3 months. The.increase in the ADR
from 1.58 for CI to 3.35 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the
MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclicaltrend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(NOVEMBER 1962 TO DECEMBER 1963)
ISJ63
19 62
Series
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
83.4 102.6 121.0 116.2
97.5
82.2
92.2
83.8 99.9 140.7 89.7
July Aug.
Sept, Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
4. Number of persons on temporary
5. Av, weekly initial claims for
13. No. of new business incorp. a
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures.
15. No. of bug. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over...
104.8 132.5 140.7 109.1 97.3 94.3 82.7 82.6 103.0 85.5
86.8 94.3 120.0 91.0 104.2 106.8 106.7 96.8 103.5 93.8
99.9 89.9 105.1 105.2 107.5 112.3 96.7 96.4 84.7 111.7
96.0
88.6 111.3 113.6 116.8 110.4 94.9 105.5
17. Price per unit of labor cost
index
101.1 98.1 98.6
18. Profits (before taxes) per2 dol.
98.8
of sales, all mfg. corp.
30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus.1. 95.3 80.4 83*.l
37. Purchased materials, percent re96.2 98.8 109.0
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
99.9 100.0 100.2
farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
output , total manufacturing. .... 98.8 101.7 101.9
81.
82.
83.
90.
91.
92.
128.
100.6 100.9 100 . 5 100.0 101.0
97.9
75.9
89.3
95.9
88.4
81.9 102.7
77.7 90.9 105.0 132*5
88.3 101.4 82.5 94.3
92.8 97.4 100.2 89.3
89.6
88.7
96.0
88.5
95.4 99.3 101.8 103.4 101.2
98.1
106.1
97.4
89.1 103.3 110.5 106.3 105.7 113.5 119.6 116.4
98.8
94.0
82.7
98.9
108.5 110.6 109.4 102.1 96.1
93.9
91.6
91.9
92.5
96.1
99.9
99.9
99.8
99.9
99.8
99.9 100.0
98.9 104.7 100.4
98.2
96.5
98.8 101.7
100.1 100.1 100.2 100.0
99.7
99.5
Index of consumer prices
100.1 100.0 99.8 99.9 99.9
Federal cash payments to public.. 104.8 98.3 90.8 98.9 92.3
Federal cash receipts from pub... 102.3 105.1 70.0 113.1 129.6
Defense Department obligations —
96.0 117.4 76.9 91.6 132.2
Defense Dept. oblig. , total
90.7 105.0 90.6 90.0 117.7
Military prime contract awards
72.9 108.5 89.5 79.7 125.3
Japan, index of industrial pro99,6 103.2 94.3 100.3 109.1
99.8 100.0
100.0 99.8 99.9 100.0 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0
98.9 103.2 106.0 95.6 114.4 93,8 102.8 105.2 98.3
79.0 119.3 149.5 49.0 113.3 124.4 46.0 102.8 105.1
81.2
96.4
69.2 192.7 77.9
84.7 148.2 96.7
78.1
86.7
89.2
95.4
96.0 117.4
90.7 105.0
93.2
92.8 216.4
72.9 92.7 90.4
72.9 108.5
99.8
99.6 103.2
99.4 100.2 100.4
68.0
97.1
97.2
98.8 96.5 98.6
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
1
Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
Appendixes
66
Appendixes E and F, not included in this issue, appeared in the September 1963 issue.
Appendix G.--HISTOR1CAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Series are In one of the following categories:
(l) Those that are new to the report, (2) those that have boen revised
historically, and (3) those for which historical data have not been shown previously. See table 1 for later data.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
20. Change in book value of mfrs.' inventories, materials
1948
1949
1930
1951
195;?
1953
1954
+0.4
+1.8
+0,6
+6.8
-2.7
0.0
-1.2
-0.3
-1.9
-0.8
+2.7
-1.5
+0.3
-1.7
1955,
1956 «
1957 „
19Sfi, . .
1959... ....
I960
+1.0
+1.0
-0.4
-0.1
+0.2
+2.3
-0.6
+2.0
+0.5
-1.0
+1.6
+1.6
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dee.
and supplies (Ann. rate, MX. del.)
+2.5
-3.9
+0.3
+5.5
-1.0
+1.5
-2.8
+1.1
-2.8
+0.2
+5.9
-0.9
+0.4
-1.1
+1.2
-2.7
+1.7
+1.5
0.0
+3.6
-1,1
+2.9
-3.9
+1.1
+1.9
-3.7
0.0
+0,8
+0.4
-3.8
+3.0
0.0
-3.7
+1,1
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
+5.3
+1.3
-1.3
+1.3
-2.6
-0.4
-1,9
+6.9
-3.5
-0.7
-0.1
-0.3
-0,6
-2.7
+6.0
+2.6
+1.2
+2,2
+0.7
-1,8
+3.2
+1.5
+0.9
+2,8
-3.2
-1.6
+3.2
+0.1
+0.8
+1.8
+0.8
-4.3
+4.7
+0.4
+1.7
+1.8
+0.7
-2.7
+7.0
-0.3
+1-9
-0.3
+0.5
-1.2
+1.2
+0,3
+4.3
-0.9
0.0
0.0
-3.8
-0.3
+2,1
+1.1
+1.2
+1.4
-4.7
-2.5
+3.7
+2.6
+1.3
+1.7
-4.0
-0.5
-o,a
-2.2
-1.0
-0.4
-0.5
+8.6
-0.5
+2.3
-0.5
0.0
+0.5
+1.3
+6.3
-0.8
+0.7
-2,0
-2.0
+0.3
+2.0
0.0
-0.8
+3.1
+3.9
-2.0
+0.6
+3.5
-3.4
+a.2
-1.8
24. Value of manufacturers ' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (fill, dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951. „
1952.,, ... .
1953.,.
1954
1,28
1,12
1.32
3.06
2.18
2.5?
1.78
1.43
1.22
1.42
3.09
2.25
2.43
1.86
1.45
1.20
1.42
2.92
2,30
2.29
1.56
1.62
1.02
1.49
2.88
2.22
2.41
1.65
1.31
1.08
1.88
2.74
2.04
2.30
1.61
1.57
1.14
1.81
2.56
2.23
1.90
1.65
1.38
1,05
2.22
2.45
2.37
2.09
1.75
1.36
1.13
2.81
2.35
2.07
1.84
1.74
1.38
1.26
2.64
2.11
2.20
1.88
1.94
1.39
1,19
2.40
2.40
2.19
1,80
1.93
1.40
1.25
2.37
2.38
1.97
1.78
1.83
3955
1956
1957
1958. . .
1959.
I960
2.09
2.72
2,96
2.28
2.62
2.73
2.29
2.55
2.96
2,16
2.70
2. S3
2.62
2.68
2.83
2.21
3.06
2.78
2.30
2.82
2.61
2.25
2.79
2.90
2.31
2.99
2.63
2.26
2.92
2.89
2.47
3.02
2.53
2.28
3.00
2.87
2.43
2,77
2.52
2.29
3.03
2.78
2.59
2.84
2.56
2.46
2.79
2.78
2.5?
2.84
2.42
2.56
3.04
2.75
2.64
2.88
2.36
2.48
2.93
2.69
2.7?
3.21
2.33
2,68
2.74
2.60
1.42
1.20
2.68
a. 37
2.19
1.76
1.95
a. a?
3.0?
2.a6
2.47
2.96
2.86
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951.. .....
1952
1953
1954
1955.. „
1956..
1957... .. ..
1958.. .....
1959
I960
-0.33
-0.99
+0.58
+5.41
+0.59
+1.93
-2.46
+0.78
+1.31
-0.25
-2.03
+0.87
-1,40
-0.30
-0.85
+0.36
+3.72
-0.01
+0.42
-1.69
+0.62
+0.23
-0.02
-1.40
+1.42
-1.00
-0.14
-0,96
+0.41
+3.91
+1.97
-0.80
-2.49
+1.19
+0.41
-0.87
-0.67
+0.83
-1.38
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted.
+0.01
-1.30
+0.46
+3.31
+2.18
-0.52
-1.83
+0.36
+1.22
-0.86
-0.79
+0.76
-0.94
-0.34
-1.10
+0.43
+2.42
+0.21
-0.09
-1.79
+0.34
+0.55
-0.64
-0.32
-0,44
-0.77
+0.73
-1.24
+0,77
+2.60
+2.72
-0.53
-1.67
+0.56
+0.26
-1.25
-0.09
-0.09
-0.42
+0.36
-0.88
+2.33
+2.25
+1.80
-2.18
-1.19
+0.81
+1.48
-1.73
+0.10
-0.13
-0.56
+0.21
-0.41
+3.91
+0.97
+0.65
-2.25
-1.00
+0.65
+1.90
-1.70
-0.21
0.00
+0.33
-0.27
-0.30
+2.18
+Q.SO
+0.85
-3.49
-1-0.30
+1.18
+0.12
-1.41
-0.22
+0.90
+0.13
-0.44
+0.34
+1.97
+1.32
-0.56
-2.54
+1.31
+1.47
-0.16
-1.91
+0.39
+1.10
-0.75
-0.61
+0.43
+1.12
+0.81
-0,65
-1.85
-0.82,
+1.16
+0.23
-1.45
+0.64
0.00
-0.30
-0.86
+0,26
+1.29
+0.45
-0.48
-1.94
-0.06
+1.87
+0.07
-1.44
-0.01
-0,31
-0.19
67
Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
number1 1
1
2
3....
4.
5. ...
6....
7....
9....
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
10, . . 7
7
11 ....
8
12
8
13....
8
14....
8
15
16....
9
17....
18.
19....
20. .
21
22.. ..
23....
24....
25
26..
29. ...
30
31.. ..
32
37. .
9
9
9
10
10
9
10
7
10
10
7
6
10
10
10
Chart s
2
3
4
5
1
;:
••
48
53
20 30
20 . 30
20 30
20 30
20 30
20 30
21 30
21 30
••
••
••
••
••
12
12
50....
51....
52....
53 ....
54. ...
55....
57
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
61....
62....
63..
64
65
66....
67. ...
14
14
14
*•
14
3
48
49
53
54
..
t
49
54
••
49
54
••
49
48
••
48
54
53
53
11
40..
41....
42
43....
A5
46....
47....
49
81 .
82..
83
84..
85
86.. .
87 .
88. ...
89. .
90 .
91 ....
••
11
11
11
11
•• !..
•• ••
50
50
55
55
11
51
51
••
56
51
51
56
56
55
..
52
52
•-
tf
• • ••
52
•-
52
••
14
14
17
16
16
16
17
15
55
56
50
50
••
kppen<iixes
Table s
•
1*5
15
15
16
16
21
21
21
22
22
22
22
2
3
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
23
23
21
20.
23
23
23
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
5
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
••
;
••
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
••
62
63
63
63
63
63
••
••
**
••
••
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
••
62
fo
63
63
D
E
••
G3
••
f
66 (ll63)
66 (7-!!63)
66 (7- 63)
65
65
••
••
••
••
57
57
58
58
57
58
..
..
, , 5?
-•
57
••
57
57
11
ff
,t
••
-•
••
-•
62
63
63
63
64
65
65
65
63
64
63
65
65
59
••
••
••
58
59
, . 62
••
**
56
59
••
62
••
62
62
ft/i
63
63 •*
62
fa
63
63
65
63
63
65
58
58
59
59
66 (8-'63)
66 ( 11-' 63)
68 (6-'63)
••
••
66 (l2-'63)
••
••
66 (!2-'63)
66 (12-' 63)
••
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
30
30
30
30
30
31
31
31
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
••
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
•-•
28
27
27
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
28
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
••
••
••
V
••
••
••
••
••
-•
••
••
••
..
..
57
58
58
59
59
-•
••
59
57
57
58
58
59
59
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
58
58
62
62
62
••
59
59
59
..
tf
,B
57
57
58
58
,.
,.
••
••
57
58
••
••
••
57
57
58
58
••
••
62
62
..
••
••
57
58
57
57
••
••
57
••
62
62
62
••
••
**
•-
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
6/,
63
63
63
64
64
64
64
••
••
••
66 (lO-'63)
68 (6- -63)
-••
68
••
68
••
68
68
••
••
68
68
68
68
65
..
65
..
••
••
••
••
66 (!0-'63)
66 (10-' 63)
68 (6- '63)
••
••
••
65
65
65
ft/i
64
64 65
ft/.65
^•See back cover for series titles and sources. . 2Page number shown is for the September 1963 issue.
Date in parentheses indicates issue in which data are shown.
F2
63
64
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
22
22
22
23
22
22
23
20
4
••
Index
68
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES.-Continued
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
nunsbor* 1
92,...
93,..,
94, . .
95....
96....
9?.,..
9B
16
17
.17
16
17
17
17
121...
122...
123...
125...
126...
127...
128...
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
01., ,.
D5....
D6..o.
Dll...
D19. . .
D23...
D33...
034. . .
D35...
D36. . .
D41. „ *
B47. „ .
D4B.,,,
D54. . .
D$8.,n
D61...
Charts
2
3
1
4
•*
5
1
2
-•
28
28
28
27
28
28
28
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
3
4
5
6
35
35
••
40
44
41
••
42
43
39
39
38
38
35
45
46
39
38*
38
34
34
35
ee back eov©r for aeries titles and sources.
8
9
A
B
C
D
E
K
64
65
••
••
64
••
••
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
36
37
36
36
3?
37
36
37
34
34
7
64
64
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
Appendixes
Tables
47
39
..
65
••
••
••
••
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).»
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).-DeparJtment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly i n i t i a l c l a i m s for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M)#—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).--Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Depertinent of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, andF. W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). —Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before raxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).— Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers1 Inventories, materials
and supplies (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of prof its (after taxes) to income or igina ting, corporate, a l l
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24* Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
Industries(M).-*Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25* Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized* by local building
permits (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M). —
National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41, Number of employees in nonogrtculturol establishments (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross notional product in 1954 dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Soles of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, dl commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book volue of manufacturers* Inventories, all manufacturing Industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM),—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base),
*67. Bonk rotes on short-term business loons, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
PENALTY rOR PRIVATE U«K TO AVOID
PAYMVNT or porrAot, **x>
(OIK)}
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cosh payments to the public (M).--Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipt* from the public (M), —Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget, Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals or the official seasonally adjusted series because of
differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. Federal cosh surplus or deficit (M).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
85. Percent change tn total U.S. money supply (demand deposit*
plu* currency) (M),-- Board of Governors of the Federal ReSystem
97, Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).--National
Industrial Conference 'Board; component industries art* seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposit*
and currency) and commercial bonk time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Euro-
pean Countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).— Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Conado, index of industrial production (M)."Dominion Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).--Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
126. France, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
128* Japan, Index of industrial production (M).*-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Japan); seasonal adjustment by
compiler and Bureau of the Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).--See series47.
86. (Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart-
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. Owner a I imports, total (M),—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).--De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. E'.xcess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Deportment obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).-De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserve* minus borrowings)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).--De-
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers'unfilled orders, durable goods Industries (EOM).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "DM pieceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series hear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources abovt*
for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).--Purchasing Agents Association
of Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
034. Profit!!, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components,
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net solec, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bnidstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight corloodings (Q).—Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER